nep-ino New Economics Papers
on Innovation
Issue of 2007‒11‒10
24 papers chosen by
Koen Frenken
Utrecht University

  1. International Knowledge Flows: Evidence from an Inventor-Firm Matched Data Set By Jinyoung Kim; Sangjoon John Lee; Gerald Marschke
  2. More secrecy... more knowledge disclosure? : On disclosure outside of patents By Carlos J. POnce
  3. Functional Chains of Knowledge Management - Effects on Firms' Innovative Performance By Uwe Cantner; Kristin Joel
  4. On the dynamics of knowledge generation and trust building in regional innovation networks. A multi method approach By Maria Daskalakis; Martina Kauffeld-Monz
  5. Research Scientist Productivity and Firm Size: Evidence from Panel Data on Inventors By Jinyoung Kim; Sangjoon John Lee; Gerald Marschke
  6. The benefits from publicly funded research By Ben Martin; Puay Tang
  7. Firms' Differential Innovative Success and Market Dynamics By Uwe Cantner
  8. Competition and Innovation: An Experimental Investigation By Dario Sacco
  9. Residential Market Research for Innovation - 2006 Technical Report By HUD - PD&R
  10. Innovation across U.S. industries: the effects of local economic characteristics By Gerald A. Carlino; Robert M. Hunt
  11. Knowledge Transformation and Economic Development: The Role of Digital Technology- An Analysis By Herani, Gobind M.; Rajar, Allah Wasayo; Zaman, Noor; Alam, Adnan
  12. Privacy Protection and Technology Diffusion: The Case of Electronic Medical Records By Catherine Tucker; Amalia Miller
  13. EU Pre-competitive and Near-the-Market S&T Collaborations By Henri Capron; Michele Cincera
  14. A New Nexus Between Foreign Direct Investment, Industrial and Innovation Policies By Costa, Ionara; Filippov, Sergey
  15. Combining spin-out and spin-in activities – the spin-along approach By Rohrbeck, Rene; Döhler, Mario; Arnold, Heinrich M.
  16. On Accounting "Capital" in Horizontal Innovation Models By MAN-SEOP PARK
  17. Capital and Interest in Horizontal Innovation Models By MAN-SEOP PARK
  18. ESTIMATING THE NEED FOR PhDs IN THE ACADEMIC SECTOR VIA A SURVEY OF EMPLOYERS By Jaan Masso; Raul Eamets; Hanna Kanep
  19. Ten years of modularity: empirical evidences on the restructuring of the auto part industry (In French) By Vincent FRIGANT (GREThA)
  20. Novelty and the Bounds of Unknowledge in Economics By U. Witt
  21. Cluster Life Cycles - Dimensions and Rationales of Cluster Development By Max-Peter Menzel; Dirk Fornahl
  22. Optimal Energy Investment and R&D Strategies to Stabilise Greenhouse Gas Atmospheric Concentrations By Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo
  23. The clean development mechanism versus international permit trading: the effect on technological change By Cathrine Hagem
  24. Investment in High-Tech Industries: An Example from the LCD Industry By Huisman, K.J.M.; Kort, P.M.; Plasmans, J.E.J.

  1. By: Jinyoung Kim (Department of Economics, Korea University); Sangjoon John Lee (Alfred University); Gerald Marschke (University at Albany and IZA)
    Abstract: We describe the construction of a panel data set from the U.S. patent data that contains measures of inventors?life-cycle R&D productivity--patents and patent citations. We match the data set to information on the U.S. pharmaceutical and semiconductor firms for whom they work. In this paper we use these data to examine the role of research personnel as a pathway for the diffusion of ideas from foreign countries to U.S. innovators. In particular, we find in recent years an increase in the extent that U.S. innovating firms collaborate with or employ researchers with foreign experience. This increase appears to work primarily through an increase in U.S. firms?employment of foreign-residing researchers; the fraction of research-active U.S. residents with foreign research experience appears to be falling, suggesting that U.S. pharmaceutical and semiconductor firms are increasingly locating operations in foreign countries to employ such researchers, as opposed to such researchers immigrating to the U.S. to work. In addition, we investigate which U.S. firms conducting R&D build upon innovations originating abroad. We find that employing or collaborating with researchers who have research experience abroad seems to facilitate the use of output of non-U.S. R&D. We also find that in the semiconductor industry smaller and older firms, and in the pharmaceutical industry, younger firms are more likely to access foreign R&D output.
    Keywords: Innovation; Technology spillovers
    JEL: J62 O31 O33
    Date: 2007
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iek:wpaper:0706&r=ino
  2. By: Carlos J. POnce
    Abstract: It is an important concern that innovators by waiving their patent rights might obstruct the disclosure of knowledge and therefore retard progress. This paper explores this concern by using a simple model of two innovators who must decide sequentially whether to protect an innovation with limited patent rights. Two features are crucial to the disclosure decision. First: the second inventor may use his valid patent right to exclude the first inventor from using a secret invention. Second: when waiving her patent right, the first inventor may disclose her knowledge outside of a patent. Disclosure informs the Patent Office and courts that related inventions from later inventors may lack novelty and hence should not be protected by valid patent rights. This paper shows that when the first inventor chooses not to patent the innovation, the amount of disclosure is related to the intellectual property choices in a paradoxical way: the amount of disclosure will be ‘large’ (‘small’) when the second inventor chooses secrecy (patenting) to protect the innovation too.
    Date: 2007–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:werepe:we077241&r=ino
  3. By: Uwe Cantner (Friedrich-Schiller University Jena, School of Economics and Business Administration, Chair of Microeconomics); Kristin Joel (Friedrich-Schiller University Jena, School of Economics and Business Administration, Chair of Microeconomics)
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate the role of Knowledge Management (KM) for the innovation success of firms. It is assumed that the functional chains of KM lead directly and indirectly to more innovative success via enhancing the recombination of internal and external knowledge assets. To analyse the embedding of KM in a firm's internal system of innovation we establish a structural equation model. We capture KM as latent concept and trace different functional chains by which KM impacts. Using data on KM and innovation success of 351 German firms of the manufacturing sector and knowledge-intensive services located in Thuringia and Hesse, our findings confirm the (dynamic) capability function of KM, which leads via improving exploitation of internal and external innovation assets to more innovation success.
    Keywords: Knowledge management, innovation, absorptive capacity, resource-based view, structural equation modelling
    JEL: O32 D21 C3
    Date: 2007–11–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2007-080&r=ino
  4. By: Maria Daskalakis (Department of Economics, University of Kassel); Martina Kauffeld-Monz (Department of Economics, University of Kassel)
    Abstract: Researchers in the field of innovation networks have acknowledged the important role knowledge and interaction play for the emergence of innovation. However, not much research has been done to investigate the behavioural dynamics necessary for the success of innovation networks. Our article deals with this issue in a threefold manner: we combine a theoretical analysis with an empirical validation and set up a multi-agent system based on both, simulating the behavioural dynamic of collaborative R&D. With regard to the theoretical foundation, the cognitive foundations of knowledge generation under bounded rationality are conceptualized. This is linked to a discussion about the role trust plays in the course of economic interaction. Trust itself proves to be a relevant mode of economic (inter)action which enables agents to overcome social dilemmas that might arise in the process of collaborative R&D. For empirical validation, a unique data set is used (23 German innovation networks, containing about 600 agents). Results of the analyses highlight the dynamics and interdependence of knowledge generation and trust as well as the sources of trust building in terms of three different components (generalised trust, specific trust, and institutional trust). The multi-agent system comprises the theoretical and empirical findings, e.g. in incorporating heterogeneity with regard to adaptive capacity, reciprocity and the tolerance of non-reciprocal behaviour. The results give evidence of the (changing) relevance of trust in the course of collaborative R&D. The success of collaborative R&D is determined through a co-evolution of individual and interactive processes of knowledge transformation und trust building.
    Keywords: Regional Innovation System, Innovation Networks, Behavioral Economics, Trust, Knowledge Transfer.
    Date: 2007–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kas:poabec:2007-4&r=ino
  5. By: Jinyoung Kim (Department of Economics, Korea University); Sangjoon John Lee (Alfred University); Gerald Marschke (University at Albany and IZA)
    Abstract: It has long been recognized that worker wages and possibly productivity are higher in large firms. Moreover, at least since Schumpeter (1942) economists have been interested in the relative efficiency of large firms in the research and development enterprise. This paper uses longitudinal worker-firm-matched data to examine the relationship between the productivity of workers specifically engaged in innovation and firm size in the pharmaceutical and semiconductor industries. In both industries, we find that inventors?productivity increases with firm size. This result holds across different specifications and even after controlling for inventors?experience, education, the quality of other inventors in the firm, and other firm characteristics. We find evidence in the pharmaceutical industry that this is partly accounted for by differences between how large and small firms organize R&D activities.
    Keywords: Patents, Innovation, Labor productivity, Research, Firm size
    JEL: O30 O32 O34 J21 J24
    Date: 2007
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iek:wpaper:0708&r=ino
  6. By: Ben Martin (SPRU, University of Sussex); Puay Tang (SPRU, University of Sussex)
    Keywords: Research, Technological change, Government Policy
    JEL: O30 O31 O33 O38
    Date: 2007–06–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sru:ssewps:161&r=ino
  7. By: Uwe Cantner (Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration)
    Abstract: This paper deals with innovative activities of firms, the resulting market success as well as the interdependencies between both. In a first theoretical part, different cases of those interdependencies are investigated by the way of a simple model based on replicator dynamics. It is shown that the resulting differential success (in those activities) of firms in a market leads to specific characteristic pattern of industry dynamics. The second empirical part of the paper is used to get an account of the working of replicator dynamics mechanism within German manufacturing. Doing so changes in firms' market shares and the relation to their respective relative technological performance and to their or innovative performance are investigated with productivity levels as a proxy for technological performance and productivity changes as proxy for innovative performance.
    Keywords: Innovation, market competition, replicator dynamics, productivity decomposition
    JEL: O3 L1 D24
    Date: 2007–11–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2007-078&r=ino
  8. By: Dario Sacco (Socioeconomic Institute, University of Zurich)
    Abstract: The paper analyzes the effects of competitive intensity on firms' incentives to invest in process innovations through an experiment based on two-stage games, where R&D investment choices are followed by product market competition. An increase in the intensity of competition is modeled as an increase in the number of Þrms or as a switch from Cournot to Bertrand. The theoretical prediction is that more intense competition is unfavorable to investments for both cases. In the experiment it turns out that the way of modeling the intensity of competition is essential. The theoretical prediction is confirmed for the number effects. On the other hand, the comparison of Cournot and Bertrand shows that more intense competition is beneÞcial for investments.
    Keywords: R&D investment, intensity of competition, experiment
    JEL: C92 L13 O31
    Date: 2007–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:soz:wpaper:0714&r=ino
  9. By: HUD - PD&R
    Abstract: It is a critical time for the residential construction sector. With single family housing construction having increased dramatically over the past five years and moderate slowdowns expected to keep construction value near 2005 levels, the timing is ideal for the industry to develop and introduce new technologies and innovations.
    JEL: O20
    Date: 2007–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hud:wpaper:39148&r=ino
  10. By: Gerald A. Carlino; Robert M. Hunt
    Abstract: This paper extends the research in Carlino, Chatterjee, and Hunt (2007) to examine the effects of local economic characteristics on the rate of innovation (as measured by patents) in more than a dozen industries. The availability of human capital is perhaps the most important factor explaining the invention rate for most industries. The authors find some evidence that higher job market density is associated with more patenting in industries such as pharmaceuticals and computers. They find evidence of increasing returns with respect to city size (total jobs) for many industries and more modest effects for increases in the size of an industry in a city. This suggests that inter-industry spillovers are often at least as important as intra-industry spillovers in explaining local rates of innovation. A more competitive local market structure, characterized by smaller establishments, contributes significantly to patenting in nearly all industries. More often than not, specialization among manufacturing industries is not particularly helpful, but the authors find the opposite for specialization among service industries. Industries benefit from different local sources of R&D (academia, government labs, and private labs) and to varying degrees.
    Keywords: Technological innovations
    Date: 2007
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:07-28&r=ino
  11. By: Herani, Gobind M.; Rajar, Allah Wasayo; Zaman, Noor; Alam, Adnan
    Abstract: This paper assesses the role of evolutionary process in knowledge transformation and economic development, especially due to emerging diversified digital technology. Everywhere, in the world, ever-advancing digital technology is performing a revolutionary role in converting the world into a global village. The knowledge, scientific and non-scientific, is being transformed with an enormous speed through digital media. Getting education through technology is providing audio-visual way of enhancing knowledge. But digital technology has its positive and negative affects. It needs some positive steps to ensure the qualitative knowledge transformation. In this article copyrights of accessing computerized data is also discussed, which prevents legal transformation of knowledge for globalisation of the world, research based education, and economic development. There different views of different. Learned authors have presented different views for reflection and deeper understanding. This study, with brief history of knowledge transformation, is worthy of fruitful suggestions.
    Keywords: Technology; Knowledge; Transformation; Scientific-Data; Research; Fair- Extract; Revolution and Low-Cost economic development.
    JEL: O33 M12 L86
    Date: 2007
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:5575&r=ino
  12. By: Catherine Tucker (MIT Sloan); Amalia Miller (Department of Economics, University of Virginia)
    Abstract: Some policymakers argue that consumers need legal protection of their privacy before they adopt interactive technologies. Others contend that privacy regulations impose costs that deter adoption. We contribute to this growing debate by quantifying the effect of state privacy regulation on the diffusion of Electronic Medical Record technology (EMR). EMR allows medical providers to store and exchange patient information using computers rather than paper records. Hospitals may not adopt EMR if patients feel their privacy is not safeguarded by regulation. Alternatively, privacy protection may inhibit adoption if hospitals cannot benefit from exchanging patient information with one another. In the US, medical privacy laws that restrict the ability of hospitals to disclose patient information vary across time and across states. We exploit this variation to explore how privacy laws affect whether hospitals adopt EMR. Our results suggest that inhibition of EMR's network benefits reduces hospital adoption by up to 25 percent. We find similar evidence when we control for the endogeneity of state laws using variation in signups to the Do Not Call list.
    Keywords: Technology adoption, privacy laws, network effects, hospitals
    JEL: I1 K2 L5 O3
    Date: 2007–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:net:wpaper:0716&r=ino
  13. By: Henri Capron (DULBEA, Université libre de Bruxelles, Brussels); Michele Cincera (DULBEA, Université libre de Bruxelles, Brussels)
    Abstract: EU Science & Technology (S&T) pre-competitive and near-the-market collaborations are the two main instruments of the European technological policy. In order to grasp the dynamics inherent to the technological collaborative behaviour of European research organisations and to better appreciate to what extent European countries, regions and research organisations are engaged in EU S&T cooperative aggrements, descriptive statistics and several absolute and relative indicators are performed. To that end, a analysis based on the collaborations observed through the European Framework Programme as well as the EUREKA initiative is performed. In a second step, a regression analysis is conducted to shed some light on the main determinants of the participation of EU regions to these S&T collaborations.
    Keywords: pre-competitive, near-the-market S&T collaborations.
    JEL: O32
    Date: 2007–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dul:wpaper:07-17.rs&r=ino
  14. By: Costa, Ionara (UNU-MERIT); Filippov, Sergey (UNU-MERIT)
    Abstract: This paper deals with the interplay between foreign direct investment (FDI) and the industrial and innovation policies of host developing economies. It aims to redefine the nexus between these different, though yet strongly interconnected policy areas, by bringing the affiliates of multinational corporations already established in a host economy to the first level of analysis. It argues that host country governments should concentrate on enhancing innovativeness and development of existing foreign-owned affiliates, instead of striving to attract higher volumes of FDI inflows.
    Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, FDI, Foreign-owned Affiliates, Industrial Policy, Innovation Policy
    JEL: F21 F23 F29 L25
    Date: 2007
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:unumer:2007030&r=ino
  15. By: Rohrbeck, Rene; Döhler, Mario; Arnold, Heinrich M.
    Abstract: After a long period of restructuring and outsourcing, companies are increasingly looking for new growth opportunities. Growth with existing prod-ucts or by expansion in new markets is limited. Therefore, companies are searching for ways to expand their activities in new businesses. A frequently used tool of multinational enterprises is corporate venturing. Within cor-porate venturing a further differentiation can be made in internal venturing and external venturing. Internal venturing promotes business ideas generated within the organization whereas external venturing promotes business ideas developed outside the company. Research has been able to show that venturing activi-ties both internal and external can create value. In this paper we explore a special case of venturing which we call the ‘spin-along approach’. It can be seen as a combination of internal and external ven-turing. In the spin-along approach, a company encourages its employees to take their business idea external and to found a company. Successful companies might later be bought back and integrated into the parent company or the paren-tal will exit the company by selling its equity share. Through literature re-view we have identified different motivations, best practices, and barriers to the successful implementation of a spin-along approach. Furthermore, two case studies will be discussed and compared. We conclude that the approach can successfully complement internal innovation management.
    Keywords: Corporate venturing; spin-along; venture leader; spin-out; spin-in; Deutsche Telekom Laboratories; Cisco Systems
    JEL: M13 M10 M0
    Date: 2007–06–17
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:5563&r=ino
  16. By: MAN-SEOP PARK (Department of Economics, Korea University)
    Abstract: I identify and correct some logical problems of the 1990 Romer model of horizontal innovation. The model's setting where all the produced inputs are durable is inconsistent with the proposed Dixit-Stiglitz production function; also, Romer's "accounting measure of capital" (and its variants in the literature) is not a theoretically proper measure on which the rate of interest is to be calculated. The correction is straightforward. However, a more fundamental issue is at stake: the structure of horizontal innovation models necessitates consideration of the problem of value, but the current literature deliberately assumes it away, generating internal inconsistency of various forms.
    JEL: O41
    Date: 2007
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iek:wpaper:0727&r=ino
  17. By: MAN-SEOP PARK (Department of Economics, Korea University)
    Abstract: A typical horizontal innovation model has three sequentially connected sectors. I argue that this structure of the model necessitates the compounding of interest on an input that goes through multiple production periods before the final good is produced. This aspect is missed (or deliberately assumed away) in typical horizontal innovation models and I contend that this practice generates internal inconsistency in relation to the long run nature of the models. I propose the correction which will restore internal consistency and discuss its implications. Though discussion is carried out in particular reference to Barro and Sala-i-Martin's "labequipment" model, implications are general.
    JEL: O41
    Date: 2007
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iek:wpaper:0728&r=ino
  18. By: Jaan Masso; Raul Eamets; Hanna Kanep
    Abstract: The aim of the current paper is to estimate the need for new PhDs in the Estonian academic sector for the 5-year period 2007–2012 using a survey of employers, such as universities, institutions of applied higher education and research institutes. The doctoral workforce in all countries around the world constitutes a rather small segment of the labour market; however, PhDs provide a crucial input for educational and R&D activities not only through their employment in the academic sector, but nowadays also increasingly in the public and private sector. Our results show that academic institutions would prefer to hire a rather high proportion of new PhDs – almost 100% of the current number. On the one hand total demand is high due to a high replacement demand brought on by retirements in the next years as a result of the
    Keywords: PhD, higher education, research and development, academic fields
    JEL: I2 J4
    Date: 2007
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtk:febawb:59&r=ino
  19. By: Vincent FRIGANT (GREThA)
    Abstract: This article reviews the carmaker-driven industrial restructurings that positioned First Tier Suppliers (henceforth FTS) at the heart of the world’s automobile system. It also draws necessarily temporary conclusions about their performance. The article is organised into three main sections. The first recaps the major transformations induced by modularity that affected inter-firm vertical relationships and highlights the challenges facing FTS. The second uses a ranking of the 30 leading automobile suppliers to analyse the instability of their global hierarchy. The final section focuses on three questions that became key for suppliers: profitability; R&D spending; and internationalisation. Most analysis involves a statistical study of a sample of 20 companies. The three sections converge to reveal a diversity of automobile supplier trajectories, in terms of both their intrinsic performance and the new kinds of operational modes they have operated within their vertical relationships.
    Keywords: Modular production; auto industry; First tier suppliers; industrial restructuring; profitability; internationalisation
    JEL: L62 L10 L23 L24
    Date: 2007
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grt:wpegrt:2007-15&r=ino
  20. By: U. Witt
    Abstract: The emergence of novelty is a driving agent for economic change. New technologies, new products and services, new institutional arrangements, to mention a few examples, are the backbone of development and growth. Important though it is, the emergence of novelty is not well understood. What seems to be clear, however, is that it implies “bounds of unknowledge” (Shackle) that impose epistemological and methodological constraints on economic theorizing. In this paper, the problems will be examined, possibilities for positively theorizing about novelty will be explored, and the methodological consequences for causal explanations and the modeling of economics dynamics will be discussed.
    Keywords: novelty, epistemic bounds, causation, dynamical systems, economic change, evolution Length 20 pages
    JEL: B41 C61 D83 O30 O31
    Date: 2007–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esi:evopap:2007-07&r=ino
  21. By: Max-Peter Menzel (University of Bern, Institute of Geography, Economic Geography and Regional Studies); Dirk Fornahl (University of Karlsruhe (TH), Institute for Economic Policy Research (IWW), and Max Planck Institute of Economics, Jena)
    Abstract: We present a model that explains how a cluster moves through a life cycle and why this movement differs from the industry life cycle. The model is based on three key processes: the changing heterogeneity in the cluster describes the movement of the cluster through the life cycle; the geographical absorptive capacity enables clustered companies to take advantage of a larger diversity of knowledge and the stronger convergence of clustered companies compared to non-clustered companies results in a reduction of heterogeneity. We apply these processes to four stages of the cluster life cycle: emergence, growth, sustainment and decline.
    Keywords: cluster evolution, life cycle, heterogeneity
    JEL: R11 O30 L25
    Date: 2007–10–30
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2007-076&r=ino
  22. By: Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo
    Abstract: The stabilisation of GHG atmospheric concentrations at levels expected to prevent dangerous climate change has become an important, global, long-term objective. It is therefore crucial to identify a cost-effective way to achieve this objective. In this paper we use WITCH, a hybrid climate-energy-economy model, to obtain a quantitative assessment of some cost-effective strategies that stabilise CO2 concentrations at 550 or 450 ppm. In particular, this paper analyses the energy investment and R&D policies that optimally achieve these two GHG stabilisation targets (i.e. the future optimal energy mix consistent with the stabilisation of GHG atmospheric concentrations at 550 and 450 ppm). Given that the model accounts for interdependencies and spillovers across 12 regions of the world, optimal strategies are the outcome of a dynamic game through which inefficiency costs induced by global strategic interactions can be assessed. Therefore, our results are somehow different from previous analyses of GHG stabilisation policies, where a central planner or a single global economy are usually assumed. In particular, the effects of free-riding incentives in reducing emissions and in investing in R&D are taken into account. Technical change being endogenous in WITCH, this paper also provides an assessment of the implications of technological evolution in the energy sector of different stabilisation scenarios. Finally, this paper quantifies the net costs of stabilising GHG concentrations at different levels, for different allocations of permits and for different technological scenarios. In each case, the optimal long-term investment strategies for all available energy technologies are determined. The case of an unknown backstop energy technology is also analysed.
    Keywords: climate policy; energy R&D; investments; stabilisation costs
    JEL: H4 O3 Q4
    Date: 2007–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6549&r=ino
  23. By: Cathrine Hagem (Statistics Norway)
    Abstract: The clean development mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol may induce technological change in developing countries. As an alternative to the clean development mechanism regime, developing countries may accept a (generous) cap on their own emissions, allow domestic producers to invest in new efficient technologies, and sell the excess emission permits on the international permit market. The purpose of this article is to show how the gains from investment, and hence the incentive to invest in new technology in developing countries, differ between the two alternative regimes. We show that the difference in the gains from investment depends on whether the producers in developing countries face competitive or noncompetitive output markets, whether the investment affects fixed or variable production costs, and whether producers can reduce emissions through means other than investing in new technology.
    Keywords: Climate Policy; Technology Adoption; Emission Trading; Clean Development Mechanism; Technological Change; Cournot Competition
    JEL: L13 Q54
    Date: 2007–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:521&r=ino
  24. By: Huisman, K.J.M.; Kort, P.M.; Plasmans, J.E.J. (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)
    Abstract: This paper considers a representative firm taking investment decisions in a high-tech environment where different generations of products are invented over time. First, we develop a real options investment model in which, according to standard practice, the sales price and the unit production cost both satisfy a geometric Brownian motion (GBM) process. However, from real life data of the LCD industry it follows that output prices behave according to a crystal cycle that does not match a GBM. We proceed by conducting a thorough econometric analysis, leading to the conclusion that a vector autoregressive model (V AR) provides the best fit. Integrating this model with the real options machinery, we find that (i) at the moment of investment the increased production capacity goes along with increasing production cost and decreasing price, (ii) a management effect is present in the sense that a price drop is followed by a cost decrease due to management pushing harder on cost decreasing programs, and (iii) investing can be optimal while at the same time a GBM yields a negative net present value (NPV). We also find that investment decisions taken in practice are better supported by our V AR model than by the standard real options model based on GBM.
    Keywords: High-tech Investment;Investment under Uncertainty;Product Innovation;Real Options;Vector Autoregressive Model
    JEL: C32 D92 E22 O33
    Date: 2007
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:kubcen:200785&r=ino

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