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on International Finance |
| By: | Lorenz Emter; Peter McQuade; Swapan-Kumar Pradhan; Martin Schmitz |
| Abstract: | This paper provides insights into the determinants of currency choice in cross-border bank lending, such as bilateral distance, financial and trade linkages to issuer countries of major currencies, and invoicing currency patterns. Cross-border bank lending in US dollars, and particularly in euro, is highly concentrated in a small number of countries. The UK is central in the international network of loans denominated in euro, although there are tentative signs that this role has diminished for lending to non-banks since Brexit. Offshore financial centres are pivotal for US dollars loans, reflecting, in particular, lending to non-bank financial intermediaries in the Cayman Islands, possibly as a result of regulatory and tax optimisation strategies. The empirical analysis suggests that euro-denominated loans face the "tyranny of distance", in line with predictions of gravity models of trade, in contrast to US dollar loans. Complementarities between trade invoicing and bank lending are found for both the euro and the US dollar. |
| Keywords: | dominant currency paradigm, currency denomination, cross-border banking, gravity |
| JEL: | F31 F33 F34 F36 G21 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1184&r= |
| By: | Wenxin Du; Amy W. Huber |
| Abstract: | We analyze a large number of industry- and company-level filings of global institutional investors to provide the first comprehensive estimate of foreign investors' U.S. dollar (USD) security holdings and currency hedging practices. We document four stylized facts. First, driven by increasing portfolio allocations, foreign investors expanded their USD security holdings six-fold over the past two decades. Second, following the 2007-09 financial crisis, foreign mutual funds, insurers, and pensions raised their USD hedge ratio by an average of 15 percentage points, despite higher hedging costs implied by large and persistent deviations from covered interest-rate parity. The total FX hedging demand from these sector reached $2 trillion in 2019. Third, there is considerable heterogeneity in hedging practice across countries and sectors. Fourth, the global banking sector provides limited dollar hedging on net, underscoring the important role non-banks play in fulfilling the hedging demand of foreign institutional investors. We employ a mean-variance framework to benchmark investors' demand for USD assets and currency hedging practice, emphasizing the influence of expected returns on optimal portfolio construction and the apparent divergence between model predictions and observed hedging behaviors. We show a strong correlation between hedging demand and the cross-section of CIP deviations. |
| JEL: | F3 G11 G20 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32453&r= |
| By: | ITO Hiroyuki; KAWAI Masahiro |
| Abstract: | The US dollar has long been the most dominant international currency used for international trade, investment, financial settlements, foreign exchange market trading, foreign reserve holding, and exchange rate anchoring. This paper develops a new method to estimate the size of major currency zones, i.e., those for the US dollar (USD), euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), British pound sterling (GBP), and Chinese yuan (RMB), and identify their determinants. The paper employs the simple Frankel-Wei (1994) and Kawai-Pontines (2016) estimation models to identify major anchor currencies and the degree of exchange rate stability (ERS) for each economy. The paper uses the estimated currency weights to construct the size of major currency zones globally and regionally over time and econometrically identify the determinants of these currency weights. In this analysis, the paper considers the degree of ERS, defined by the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of the estimation model, which allows for the possibility that a part of each economy or region or part of the world is under a floating exchange rate regime. This method avoids overestimating the size of a particular major currency zone such as the RMB zone, when economies do not rigidly stabilize their currencies to such a major currency, and thus presents a better picture that is more consistent with the current state of the international monetary system. The paper yields several interesting results. First, the global economic share of the USD zone, still the largest in the world, has declined over time due to the emergence of the EUR zone and the recent rapid rise of the RMB zone. The size of the EUR zone is larger than that of the RMB zone if the degree of ERS is taken into account. Additionally, the share of the world economy under floating exchange rates has expanded in size over time. Second, the USD zone is the largest in the Middle East & Central Asia, followed by emerging & developing Asian and Sub-Saharan African economies, while the EUR zone is dominant in emerging & developing economies in Europe. The USD zone share has been declining rapidly in Latin America & the Caribbean. The size of the RMB zone has been increasing in most regions. Third, the USD weight is positively affected by the share of trade with the United States and the US dollar shares in export invoicing and cross-border bank liabilities. Similarly, the EUR weight is positively affected by economies’ shares of trade with the Euro Area as well as the euro shares in export invoicing, inward FDI stock, and cross-border bank liabilities. The RMB weight is not significantly affected by economies’ shares of trade with, or inward FDI stock or borrowing from China. The paper provides some policy implications. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:24059&r= |
| By: | Leone, Fabrizio |
| Abstract: | U.S. equity outperformance and sustained dollar appreciation have led to large valuation gains for the rest of the world on the U.S. external position. I construct their global distribution, carefully accounting for the role of tax havens. Valuation gains are concentrated and large in developed countries, while developing countries have been mostly bypassed. To assess the welfare implications of these capital gains, I adopt a sufficient statistics approach. In contrast to the large wealth changes, most countries so far did not benefit much in welfare terms. This is because they did not rebalance their portfolios and realize their gains. In contrast, direct effects from the dollar appreciation on import and export prices are an order of magnitude larger. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Assets, Global Imbalances, Valuation Effects |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:docweb:2404&r= |
| By: | Akira Kohsaka (Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University) |
| Abstract: | A breakup of Euro Zone appeared likely in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), while EU has long been model regional integration to East Asia. Recognizing different political-economic contexts between East Asia and EU, what can we learn from the experiences of Euro Zone so far? This paper tries to answer the question by examining regional financial integration in two regions in view of international macroeconomics. Financial globalization since the 1990s plays the key role there. We can summarize our observations as follows:East Asia’s fundamental strength shown throughout GFC implies weak motivation to promote further regional financial integration toward a monetary/fiscal union as EU. The global sudden stop of capital inflow by GFC seriously damaged vulnerable links in Euro Zone, although crisis-driven policy innovations seem to strengthen its macro-financial policy framework. As to the future role of Euro Zone, at issue is the volatility intrinsic to the global financial market, which would aggravate the asymmetry across currencies, potentially harming resource allocation and growth. Post-Bretton Woods flexible exchange rates could not wipe away, but magnify this asymmetry (i.e. US dollar dominance). The Euro and Euro Zone could challenge this fundamental flaw of the present international monetary system. |
| Keywords: | regional integration, East Asia, Euro Zone, financial globalization |
| JEL: | E5 F3 F41 G15 O11 O16 P51 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osp:wpaper:24e001&r= |
| By: | R, Pazhanisamy; Sri, Thomas Mathew |
| Abstract: | The global economy has witnessed significant transformations in recent decades, marked by the emergence of new economic powers and the evolution of financial systems. Within this context, the globalization of currencies has become a crucial aspect of international economic dynamics. This paper explores the globalization of the Indian Rupee within the framework of the new world economic order. It examines the factors driving the globalization of the rupee, including economic liberalization, financial market reforms, and India's growing integration into the global economy. Furthermore, the paper analyzes the implications of the Rupee's globalization for India's economy, financial markets, and monetary policy. By examining the possibilities of appreciation of Indian rupee and opportunities associated with the globalization of the Rupee, this paper aims to contribute to a better understanding of India's role in the evolving global economic landscape and its implications for domestic and international trade. |
| Keywords: | Money demand, currency in circulation, payment systems, monetary policy Foreign Exchange, International Policy, Globalization, Indian Rupee, New World Economic Order, Internationalization, Monetary Policy, Economic Integration. |
| JEL: | E4 E42 E47 E51 E52 F3 F31 F33 F4 G18 |
| Date: | 2024–04–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120650&r= |
| By: | Tian Tian; Ricky Cooper; Jiahao Deng; Qingquan Zhang |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a novel methodology for index return forecasting, blending highly correlated stock prices, advanced deep learning techniques, and intricate factor integration. Departing from conventional cap-weighted approaches, our innovative framework promises to reimagine traditional methodologies, offering heightened diversification, amplified performance capture, and nuanced market depiction. At its core lies the intricate identification of highly correlated company clusters, fueling predictive accuracy and robustness. By harnessing these interconnected constellations, we unlock a profound comprehension of market dynamics, bestowing both investment entities and individual enterprises with invaluable performance insights. Moreover, our methodology integrates pivotal factors such as indexes and ETFs, seamlessly woven with Hierarchical Risk Parity (HRP) portfolio optimization, to elevate performance and fortify risk management. This comprehensive amalgamation refines risk diversification, fortifying portfolio resilience against turbulent market forces. The implications reverberate resoundingly. Investment entities stand poised to calibrate against competitors with surgical precision, tactically sidestepping industry-specific pitfalls, and sculpting bespoke investment strategies to capitalize on market fluctuations. Concurrently, individual enterprises find empowerment in aligning strategic endeavors with market trajectories, discerning key competitors, and navigating volatility with steadfast resilience. In essence, this research marks a pivotal moment in economic discourse, unveiling novel methodologies poised to redefine decision-making paradigms and elevate performance benchmarks for both investment entities and individual enterprises navigating the intricate tapestry of financial realms. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2405.01892&r= |
| By: | Daniel Greenwald; John Krainer; Pascal Paul |
| Abstract: | We study the transmission of monetary policy through bank securities portfolios using granular supervisory data on U.S. bank securities, hedging positions, and corporate credit. Banks that experienced larger losses on their securities during the 2022-2023 monetary tightening cycle extended less credit to firms. This spillover effect was stronger for available-for-sale securities, unhedged securities, and banks that must include unrealized gains and losses in their regulatory capital. A structural model, disciplined by our cross-sectional regression estimates, shows that interest rate transmission is stronger the more banks are required to adjust their regulatory capital for unrealized value changes of securities. |
| JEL: | E32 E43 E44 E51 E52 E60 G21 G32 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32449&r= |
| By: | Stephen McKnight (El Colegio de México); Laura Povoledo (University of the West of England) |
| Abstract: | We document important differences between developed and emerging market economies relating to the cyclical behaviour of international relative prices and quantities. In emerging markets, imports are more volatile than exports, the terms of trade is less volatile, and net exports are strongly countercyclical. While the terms of trade is procyclical in developed countries, it is generally acyclical or weakly countercyclical in emerging economies. We develop a two-sector small open economy model with an endogenous terms of trade and compare three mechanisms in an attempt to account for the empirical evidence: trend productivity shocks, interest-rate shocks in the presence of financial frictions, and informality. We find that trend productivity shocks is the most important mechanism in replicating the cyclical behaviour observed for the terms of trade and net exports. |
| Keywords: | Emerging Markets, Business Cycles, Terms of Trade, Net Exports, Informality |
| JEL: | E32 F41 F44 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emx:ceedoc:2024-02&r= |
| By: | Tanju Capacioglu; Hakan Kara |
| Abstract: | We analyze the impact of a unique macroprudential regulation, which has been implemented in Türkiye since May 2018. The regulation requires that, for firms holding total FX loans below USD 15 million, FX loans should be capped by their past three years’ FX revenues. The regulation aims to contain corporate FX mismatches through a natural hedging requirement by linking their FX borrowing to FX revenues. Using a rich data set at the firm-bank level and their matched universe, we find that, following the regulation, FX loans of the firms targeted by the regulation (exposed firms) declined more, and non-renewed FX loans were only partly replaced with local currency loans, suggesting imperfect substitution between local currency and FX borrowing. Exposed firms exhibit weaker investment but stronger export growth. The regulation has indirect effects on the composition of bank balance sheets in the form of increased currency swaps and/or reduced external FX borrowing. Overall, our findings suggest that macroprudential tools that directly target corporate balance sheet mismatches can be viable alternatives to lender-based restrictions in mitigating currency risk. |
| Keywords: | Macroprudential regulation, FX mismatch, Natural hedging, Currency risk, Corporate sector, Banking sector |
| JEL: | F31 F34 G30 G38 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2406&r= |
| By: | Saroj Bhattarai (University of Texas at Austin); Arpita Chatterjee (University of New South Wales); Gautham Udupa (CAFRAL, Reserve Bank of India) |
| Abstract: | Exogenous global commodity price shocks lead to a significant decline over time in Indian household consumption. These negative effects are heterogeneous along the income distribution: households in lower income groups experience more adverse consumption effects following an exogenous rise in food prices, whereas households in the lowest and the two highest income groups are affected similarly following an exogenous rise in oil prices. We investigate how income and relative price changes contribute to generating these heterogeneous effects. Global food price shocks lead to significant negative wage income effects that mirror the pattern of negative consumption effects along the income distribution. Both global oil and food price shocks pass-through to local consumer prices in India and increase the relative prices of fuel and food respectively. Expenditure share of food increases with such a rise in relative prices, which provides unambiguous evidence for nonhomothetic preferences. Using the expenditure share responses together with theory, we show that food, compared to fuel, is a necessary consumption good for all income groups. |
| Keywords: | Global Price shocks; Food prices; Oil prices; Inequality; Household heterogeneity; Household consumption; Necessary good; Non-homotheticity; India |
| JEL: | F41 F62 O11 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:swe:wpaper:2024-03&r= |