nep-ifn New Economics Papers
on International Finance
Issue of 2022‒11‒14
six papers chosen by
Vimal Balasubramaniam
University of Oxford

  1. Understanding the Strength of the Dollar By Zhengyang Jiang; Robert J. Richmond; Tony Zhang
  2. FX Resilience around the World: Fighting Volatile Cross-Border Capital Flows By Louisa Chen; Estelle Xue Liu; Zijun Liu
  3. A structural analysis of foreign exchange markets in sub-Saharan Africa By Kaltenbrunner, Annina; Perez Ruiz, Daniel; Okot, Anjelo
  4. Boosting carry with equilibrium exchange rate estimates By Rubaszek, Michał; Beckmann, Joscha; Ca' Zorzi, Michele; Kwas, Marek
  5. The term structure of carbon premia By Dora Xia; Omar Zulaica
  6. Will We Ever Be Able to Track Offshore Wealth? Evidence from the Offshore Real Estate Market in the UK By Jeanne Bomare; Ségal Le Guern Herry

  1. By: Zhengyang Jiang; Robert J. Richmond; Tony Zhang
    Abstract: We link the sustained appreciation of the U.S. dollar from 2011 to 2019 to international capital flows driven by primitive economic factors. We show that increases in foreign investors’ net savings, increases in U.S. monetary policy rates relative to the rest of the world, and shifts in investor demand for U.S. financial assets contributed approximately equally to the dollar’s appreciation. We then quantify the impact of potential future demand shifts for U.S. assets on the value of the dollar.
    JEL: F31 G15
    Date: 2022–10
  2. By: Louisa Chen; Estelle Xue Liu; Zijun Liu
    Abstract: We show that capital flow (CF) volatility exerts an adverse effect on exchange rate (FX) volatility, regardless of whether capital controls have been put in place. However, this effect can be significantly moderated by certain macroeconomic fundamentals that reflect trade openness, foreign assets holdings, monetary policy easing, fiscal sustainability, and financial development. Passing the threshold levels of these macroeconomic fundamentals, the adverse effect of CF volatility may be negligible. We further construct an intuitive FX resilience measure, which provides an assessment of the strength of a country's exchange rates.
    Date: 2022–10
  3. By: Kaltenbrunner, Annina; Perez Ruiz, Daniel; Okot, Anjelo
    Abstract: This paper presents detailed insights into the microstructural characteristics of several African Lower and Lower-Middle Income Countries (LLMICs) foreign exchange markets and the implications of these characteristics for macroeconomic management. It draws on 13 semi-structured interviews with 17 foreign exchange experts in central banks, banks, non-bank financial institutions, and research institutions in selected case studies (Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Sierra Leone, Uganda, and Zambia) and the City of London. The results show that whilst most case study countries have functioning foreign exchange interbank markets, these markets are oftentimes characterised by low, volatile and "lumpy" liquidity. These liquidity dynamics and uncertainty about future foreign exchange flows can lead to FX hoarding among foreign exchange market participants, further depriving the official foreign exchange market of liquidity. Moreover, they provide those with access to FX liquidity with significant market power and the potential to affect price dynamics. These microstructural characteristics, in turn have meant that central banks in African LLMICs remain key agents in foreign exchange markets to manage scarce and volatile liquidity patterns. At the same time though, these microstructural weaknesses complicate central banks' ability to deal with volatile foreign exchange availability and structural depreciation pressures. Whereas hoarding behaviour reduces the central bank's access to foreign exchange, low trust in domestic currencies puts serious limits on the extent of nominal depreciations central banks will be able and willing to tolerate. Overall, the results show the difficulties of moving towards floating exchange rates in the context of African LLMICs, characterised by concentrated export structures, low trust in their currencies, and shallow domestic financial markets.
    Date: 2022
  4. By: Rubaszek, Michał; Beckmann, Joscha; Ca' Zorzi, Michele; Kwas, Marek
    Abstract: We build currency portfolios based on the paradigm that exchange rates slowly converge to their equilibrium to highlight three results. First, this property can be exploited to build profitable portfolios. Second, the slow pace of convergence at short-horizons is consistent with the evidence of profitable carry trade strategies, i.e. the common practice of borrowing in low-yield currencies and investing in high-yield currencies. Third, the predictive power of equilibrium exchange rates may boost the performance of carry trade strategies. JEL Classification: F31, G12, G15
    Keywords: carry trade, equilibrium exchange rate, trading strategies
    Date: 2022–09
  5. By: Dora Xia; Omar Zulaica
    Abstract: This paper explores a carbon premium – the extra yield investors demand to buy bonds issued by firms with more greenhouse gas emissions – in the US corporate bond market. We analyse a carbon premium along two channels, via panel regression. One is the preference channel, under which the premium reflects investors' preference for firms that they perceive as being more environmentally responsible, all else equal. The other is the risk channel, where investors perceive more carbon-intensive firms as more prone to default. We test the preference channel by investigating the relationship between corporate bond yields and carbon emissions, while controlling for the probability of default (PD) and other bond characteristics. We examine the risk channel by analysing how carbon emissions affect the PD. We validate the existence of carbon premia in both channels, with the premium being larger for firms in more energy-intensive sectors. Moreover, the premium differs across maturities, giving rise to a humpshaped term structure of carbon premia, reaching its highest level at the belly of the curve (maturities of 15–20 years). For instance, a 50% reduction in carbon emissions by an energy-intensive firm can reduce credit spread of a bond in the belly issued by the firm by over 10 basis points.
    Keywords: climate change, carbon emissions, corporate bond spread, term structure.
    JEL: G12 G30 Q54
    Date: 2022–10
  6. By: Jeanne Bomare (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Ségal Le Guern Herry (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This paper provides evidence of the growing importance of real estate assets in offshore portfolios. We study the implementation of the first multilateral automatic exchange of information norm, the Common Reporting Standard (CRS), which introduces cross-border reporting requirements for financial assets but not for real estate assets. Exploiting administrative data on property purchases made by foreign companies in the UK, we show that the implementation of the CRS led to a significant increase of real estate investments from companies incorporated in the tax havens that were the most exposed to the policy. We confirm that this increase comes from company owners of countries committing to the new standard by identifying the residence country of a sub-sample of buyers using the Panama Papers and other leaked datasets. We estimate that between £16 and £19 billion have been invested in the UK real estate market between 2013 and 2016 in reaction to the CRS, suggesting that at the global scale between 24% and 27% of the money that fled tax havens following this policy were ultimately invested in properties.
    Date: 2022–06–05

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