| Abstract: |
This paper presents a comprehensive cross-country database of fiscal space,
broadly defined as the availability of budgetary resources for a government to
service its financial obligations. The database covers up to 200 countries
over the period 1990-2016, and includes 28 indicators of fiscal space grouped
into four categories: debt sustainability, balance sheet vulnerability,
external and private sector debt related risks as potential causes of
contingent liabilities, and market access. We illustrate potential
applications of the database by analyzing developments in fiscal space across
three time frames: over the past quarter century; during financial crises; and
during oil price plunges. The main results are as follows. First, fiscal space
had improved in many countries before the global financial crisis. In advanced
economies, following severe deteriorations during the crisis, many indicators
of fiscal space have virtually returned to levels in the mid-2000s. In
contrast, fiscal space has shrunk in many emerging market and developing
economies since the crisis. Second, financial crises tend to coincide with
deterioration in multiple indicators of fiscal space, but they are often
followed by reduced reliance on short-term borrowing. Finally, fiscal space
narrows in energy-exporting emerging market and developing economies during
oil price plunges but later expands, often because of procyclical fiscal
tightening and, in some episodes, a recovery in oil prices. |