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on International Finance |
| By: | Cenedese, Gino (Bank of England); Payne, Richard (Cass Business School, City University London); Sarno, Lucio (Cass Business School, City University London and Centre for Economic Policy Research); Valente, Giorgio (City University of Hong Kong) |
| Abstract: | The sign of the correlation between equity returns and exchange rate returns can be positive or negative in theory. Using data for a broad set of 42 countries, we find that exchange rate movements are in fact unrelated to differentials in country-level equity returns. Consequently, a trading strategy that invests in countries with the highest expected equity returns and shorts those with the lowest generates substantial returns and Sharpe ratios. These returns partially reflect compensation for global equity volatility risk, but significant excess returns remain after controlling for exposure to standard risk factors. |
| Keywords: | Empirical asset pricing; exchange rates; international asset allocation |
| JEL: | F31 G15 |
| Date: | 2015–07–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0537&r=ifn |
| By: | Marcel Fratzscher (DIW Berlin, Humboldt-University Berlin and CEPR (E-mail: mfratzscher@diw.de)); Marco Lo Duca (European Central Bank (E-mail: marco.lo_duca@ecb.europa.eu)); Roland Straub (European Central Bank (E-mail: roland.straub@ecb.europa.eu)) |
| Abstract: | The paper analyses the global spillovers of the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary policy measures. First, we find that Fed measures in the early phase of the crisis (QE1) were highly effective in lowering sovereign yields and raising equity markets, especially in the US relative to other countries. Fed measures since 2010 (QE2) boosted equities worldwide, while they had muted impact on yields across countries. Yet Fed policies functioned in a pro-cyclical manner for capital flows to emerging markets (EMEs) and a counter-cyclical way for the US, triggering a portfolio rebalancing across countries out of EMEs into US equity and bond funds under QE1, and in the opposite direction under QE2. Second, the impact of Fed operations, such as Treasury and MBS purchases, on portfolio allocations and asset prices dwarfed those of Fed announcements, underlining the importance of the market repair and liquidity functions of Fed policies. Third, we find no evidence that FX or capital account policies helped countries shield themselves from these US policy spillovers, but rather that responses to Fed policies are related to country risk. The results thus illustrate how US unconventional measures have contributed to portfolio reallocation as well as a re-pricing of risk in global financial markets. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, quantitative easing, portfolio choice, capital flows, Federal Reserve, United States, policy responses, emerging markets, panel data |
| JEL: | E52 E58 F32 F34 G11 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ime:imedps:15-e-07&r=ifn |
| By: | Zwick, Lina |
| Abstract: | After two decades of increased financial market integration, particularly driven by the banking sector, during the recent financial crisis capital flows decreased sharply, and especially banking flows were affected. At the same time loan volume in Euro Area countries slowed down, evoking concerns that domestic banks might have restricted their domestic lending activities due to international liquidity shortages. To probe this explanation, this paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of adverse international liquidity shocks for eleven Euro Area countries between 2003 and 2013 on a quarterly basis. The international liquidity shocks are identified by applying a panel vector autoregressive (VAR) model with sign restrictions. The analysis reveals no significant decline in loan volume after such a shock. Rather, domestic banks presumably react by withdrawing money from abroad, thereby buffering the impact of the sharp decrease of capital inflows on the domestic economy. |
| Keywords: | international capital flows,Panel VAR,loan supply restrictions,home bias |
| JEL: | F32 F34 G21 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:564&r=ifn |
| By: | Ronald A. Ratti; Joaquin L. Vespignani |
| Abstract: | We construct a GFAVAR model with newly released global data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas to investigate the drivers of official/policy interest rate. We find that 62% of movement in global official/policy interest rates is attributed to changes in global monetary aggregates (21%), oil prices (18%), global output (15%) and global prices (8%). Global official/policy interest rates respond significantly to increases in global output and prices and oil prices. Increases in global policy interest rates are associated with reductions in global prices and global output. The response in official/policy interest rate for the emerging countries is more to global inflation, for the advanced countries (excluding the U.S.) is more to global output, and for the U.S. is to both global output and inflation. |
| Keywords: | Global interest rate, global monetary aggregates, oil prices, GFAVAR |
| JEL: | E44 E50 Q43 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2015-27&r=ifn |