nep-ifn New Economics Papers
on International Finance
Issue of 2014‒12‒03
two papers chosen by
Vimal Balasubramaniam
University of Oxford

  1. Financial Crises and the Composition of Cross-Border Lending By Eugenio Cerutti; Galina Hale; Camelia Minoiu
  2. Momentum Crashes By Kent Daniel; Tobias J. Moskowitz

  1. By: Eugenio Cerutti; Galina Hale; Camelia Minoiu
    Abstract: We examine the composition and drivers of cross-border bank lending between 1995 and 2012, distinguishing between syndicated and non-syndicated loans. We show that on-balance sheet syndicated loan exposures account for almost one third of total cross-border loan exposures during this period. Furthermore, syndicated loan exposures increased during the global financial crisis due to large drawdowns on credit lines extended before the crisis. Our empirical analysis of the drivers of cross-border loan exposures in a large bilateral dataset shows three main results. First, banks with lower levels of capital favor syndicated over other kinds of cross-border loans. Second, borrower country characteristics such as level of development, economic size, and capital account openness, are less important in driving syndicated than non-syndicated loan activity, suggesting a diversification motive for syndication. Third, information asymmetries between lender and borrower countries, which are important both in normal and crisis times, became more binding for both types of cross-border lending activity during the recent crisis.
    Keywords: Financial crises;Cross-border banking;Loans;Regression analysis;cross-border banking, syndicated loans, global financial crisis, BIS international banking statistics, Dealogic Loan Analytics
    Date: 2014–10–16
  2. By: Kent Daniel; Tobias J. Moskowitz
    Abstract: Despite their strong positive average returns across numerous asset classes, momentum strategies can experience infrequent and persistent strings of negative returns. These momentum crashes are partly forecastable. They occur in "panic" states - following market declines and when market volatility is high - and are contemporaneous with market rebounds. We show that the low ex-ante expected returns in panic states are consistent with a conditionally high premium attached to the option-like payoffs of past losers. An implementable dynamic momentum strategy based on forecasts of momentum's mean and variance approximately doubles the alpha and Sharpe Ratio of a static momentum strategy, and is not explained by other factors. These results are robust across multiple time periods, international equity markets, and other asset classes.
    JEL: G11 G12
    Date: 2014–08

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