nep-ict New Economics Papers
on Information and Communication Technologies
Issue of 2019‒12‒09
nine papers chosen by
Marek Giebel
Universität Dortmund

  1. A laptop for every child? The impact of ICT on educational outcomes. By Hall, Caroline; Lundin, Martin; Sibbmark, Kristina
  2. Trade in Information Technologies and Changes in the Demand for Occupations By Jerbashian, Vahagn
  3. Using Facebook Ad Data to Track the Global Digital Gender Gap By Fatehkia, Masoomali; Kashyap, Ridhi; Weber, Ingmar
  4. The Automatisation Challenge Meets the Demographic Challenge: In Need of Higher Productivity Growth By Sandra M. Leitner; Robert Stehrer
  5. Digitisation in forest industry in Bulgaria - state and perspectives By Georgieva, Daniela; Popova, Radostina
  6. Shrinking the Tax Gap: Approaches and Revenue Potential By Natasha Sarin; Lawrence H. Summers
  7. Intangible Capital and Labour Productivity Growth: A Review of the Literature By Roth, Felix
  9. The Phenomenon of Cyber-Crime and Fraud Victimization in Online Shop By Siahaan, Andysah Putera Utama; Nasution, Muhammad Dharma Tuah Putra

  1. By: Hall, Caroline (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Lundin, Martin (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Sibbmark, Kristina (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy)
    Abstract: Classrooms all over the world are becoming increasingly technologically advanced. Many schools today provide a personal laptop or tablet to each pupil for use both in the classroom and at home. The intent of these 1:1 programs is that information and communication technology (ICT) should be extensively involved in the teaching of all subjects. We investigate how pupils who are given a personal laptop or tablet, rather than having more limited computer access, are affected in terms of educational performance. By surveying schools in 26 Swedish municipalities regarding the implementation of 1:1 programs and combining this information with administrative data, we estimate the impact on educational outcomes using a difference-in-differences design. We find no significant impact on standardized tests in mathematics or language on average, nor do we find an impact on the probability of being admitted to upper secondary school or the students’ choice of educational track. However, our results indicate that 1:1 initiatives may increase inequality in education by worsening math skills and decreasing enrollment in college-preparatory programs in upper secondary school among students with lower educated parents.
    Keywords: technology; computers; one-to-one; student performance
    JEL: I21
    Date: 2019–11–06
  2. By: Jerbashian, Vahagn
    Abstract: I use data from the World Input-Output Database and show that trade in information technologies (IT) has a significant contribution to the growth in foreign intermediate goods in 2001-2014 period. China has become one of the major foreign suppliers of IT and has strongly contributed to the rise in trade in IT. The growth in IT imports from China is associated with lower IT prices in sample European countries. The fall in IT prices has increased the demand for high wage occupations and reduced the demand for low wage occupations. From 20 to 95 percent of the variation in the demand for occupations stemming from the fall in IT prices can be attributed to the trade with China.
    Keywords: Trade,Information Technologies,China,Demand for Occupations
    JEL: F16 J23 J24 O33 L63
    Date: 2019
  3. By: Fatehkia, Masoomali; Kashyap, Ridhi; Weber, Ingmar
    Abstract: Gender equality in access to the internet and mobile phones has become increasingly recognised as a development goal. Monitoring progress towards this goal however is challenging due to the limited availability of gender-disaggregated data, particularly in low-income countries. In this data sparse context, we examine the potential of a source of digital trace `big data' -- Facebook's advertisement audience estimates -- that provides aggregate data on Facebook users by demographic characteristics covering the platform's over 2 billion users to measure and `nowcast' digital gender gaps. We generate a unique country-level dataset combining `online' indicators of Facebook users by gender, age and device type, `offline' indicators related to a country's overall development and gender gaps, and official data on gender gaps in internet and mobile access where available. Using this dataset, we predict internet and mobile phone gender gaps from official data using online indicators, as well as online and offline indicators. We find that the online Facebook gender gap indicators are highly correlated with official statistics on internet and mobile phone gender gaps. For internet gender gaps, models using Facebook data do better than those using offline indicators alone. Models combining online and offline variables however have the highest predictive power. Our approach demonstrates the feasibility of using Facebook data for real-time tracking of digital gender gaps. It enables us to improve geographical coverage for an important development indicator, with the biggest gains made for low-income countries for which existing data are most limited.
    Date: 2018–03–06
  4. By: Sandra M. Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Robert Stehrer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: The future of employment and labour demand growth in the dawning era of intelligent robots and other new technologies is heavily debated. This paper argues that this discussion needs to be complemented by a second trend which has been unfolding in Europe for some time, namely the demographic decline. Various demographic scenarios for many EU countries point towards a significant decline in the working-age population in the near future which puts the functioning of labour markets at risk as labour shortages become increasingly more likely and subsequently threaten economic growth. In this context, this paper gives an overview of recent trends in the growth of real value added, labour productivity and employment as well as of demographic scenarios. Based on these trends, the hypothetical increase of labour productivity growth which would be required to keep real GDP growth at its current level, despite the projected reduction in the workforce, is calculated. Results show that the hypothetical labour productivity growth rate required is about one percentage point higher than the actual growth rate, suggesting that the current labour productivity growth rate in the EU needs to more than double. A complementary econometric analysis shows that even though robots exhibit a positive impact on labour productivity growth, this is not (yet) strong enough to close the gap between the recent and the hypothetical labour productivity trend growth rate which would be required. Disclaimer The paper has been written as part of the DG ECFIN FELLOWSHIP-INITIATIVE 2018-2019 The productivity challenge jobs and incomes in the dawning era of intelligent robots, Ref. 2018 ECFIN 005/B and can also be downloaded from the European Commission's website.
    Keywords: robotisation, ICT capital, productivity, demography
    JEL: J11 O33 O47
    Date: 2019–12
  5. By: Georgieva, Daniela; Popova, Radostina
    Abstract: A main objective of the paper is to present the state, current trends and challenges in front of the enterprises in Bulgarian Forest sector, based on the introduction of digital tools and solutions in business and economy as a whole. A subject of analyses is the degree of digitisation of forest sector enterprises based on the implementation and use of online-based applications and electronic catalogs; specialized information and communication management systems and networks; office and warehouse management software. The indicators under analysis are divided into the following groups - "connectivity and digital skills"; "internal processes" and "relationship with customers, suppliers and third parties". In order to achieve comparability of the results, the selected indicators are the same as those officially used by Eurostat. For the purposes of the analysis, secondary and primary data are used as well as publications in the specialized literature, legislation framework and analyzes of statistical data from national and international databases. The paper presents primary results from in-depth interviews with management representatives from large forest industry enterprises, according to the requirements of the Bulgarian Accountancy Act (AA). Good digital practices in the furniture manufacturers are also presented, and some opportunities for development of the Forest industry entities are suggested.
    Keywords: digitisation; Forest sector; Forest industry; in-depth interviews; large enterprises
    JEL: Q00 Q16
    Date: 2019–02
  6. By: Natasha Sarin; Lawrence H. Summers
    Abstract: Between 2020 and 2029, the IRS will fail to collect nearly $7.5 trillion of taxes it is due. It is not possible to calculate with precision how much of this “tax gap” could be collected. This paper offers a naïve approach. The analysis suggests that with feasible changes in policy, the IRS could aspire to shrink the tax gap by around 15 percent in the next decade—generating over $1 trillion in additional revenue by performing more audits (especially of high-income earners), increasing information reporting requirements, and investing in information technology. These investments will increase efficiency and are likely to be very progressive.
    JEL: H0 H2 H26
    Date: 2019–11
  7. By: Roth, Felix
    Abstract: This paper surveys a wide range of studies on the impact of capital investment in intangible assets on labour productivity growth and highlights their main findings on. Surveying the literature at the country, industry and firm level, this paper finds evidence of the increasing importance of business investment in intangible assets in explaining the dynamics of labour productivity growth. Moreover, the findings reported in the literature surveyed suggest that in order to fully reap the benefits of investment in information and communication technology (ICT) and artificial intelligence (AI), it is essential for businesses to make complementary investment in intangible assets. In addition, the literature on the drivers of business capital investment in intangibles highlights the importance of having in place a well-endowed infrastructure of public intangibles. Judging from the wide range of economic literature surveyed, this paper finds that the contemporary economic debate now broadly acknowledges the importance of intangibles for the transformation of developed economies towards becoming fully-fledged knowledge economies.
    Keywords: Intangible Capital,Labour Productivity Growth,Total Factor Productivity Growth,Information and Communication Technology,Artificial Intelligence,European Union
    Date: 2019
  8. By: Novandri, Reza
    Abstract: E-Government is the world government instrument of bureaucracy reform towards good governance and the Indonesian government has initiated the improvement of technology-based bureaucracy signed by the establishment of the State Administration Automation Coordinating Board (BAKOTAN) in 1969 and the Presidential Decree No. 20 of 2006 on the Establishment of National Information and Communication Technology Board, but its implementation has not seen. The Pariaman City Government make bureaucratic reform based technologies for achieving good governance as a priority in the Medium Term Development Plan (RPJMD) in 2013-2018. In a previous study, Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) is a perfect solution in reforming the bureaucracy to realize good governance but the ERP implementation is still at risk of failure. Nasir and Sahibuddin (2011) recorded as much as 72.43% of system implementation projects from 1994 to 2008 is problematic. This study aimed to analyse the readiness of the Pariaman City Government in the ERP system implementation using 4 variables: infrastructure, the rate of adoption, human resources and organizational culture which are Critical Success Factors (CSF). This research is a case study using mixed methods, embedded correlation models design and judgment sampling techniques on the orientation of the sample selection at the same time with the relationship of a stratified sample. Data analysis technique is done in stages which are infrastructure readiness of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) variable utilize documentation data analysis and description of the interview results, while variable rate of adoption, human resources and organizational culture are using questionnaire data descriptive statistics and analysis of the interview results. Based on this research, Pariaman City Government was ready to implement the ERP system with the potential strengths and weaknesses. In the variable infrastructure readiness, more than 83% of infrastructure and its supports in decent and good condition with network support and reliable security but there are still weaknesses related to non-optimal service channels, the absence of a Disaster Recovery Centre (DRC) and the inclusion of procedures for infrastructure maintenance in regulation implementers. Variable rate of adoption has potentially powerful because it is supported by ICT development documents legally enforceable, but there are weaknesses in planning procedures that are still inconsistent application. Variable human resources have the potential strength for their leaders who trusted by ASN and Parliament is able to implement information technology projects well, but its weakness is the lack of skilled ICT personnel and ASN which has computer educational background are not engaged. Variable culture of organization has potentially powerful because their awareness of the technology needs and the culture of good leadership and has a tangible manifestation in the implementation of bureaucratic reforms, but there is the disadvantage that the reluctance to change in the near future because they are in a comfort zone or the ASN difficult to break the habit of using paper documents with the manual system.
    Date: 2018–09–01
  9. By: Siahaan, Andysah Putera Utama (Universitas Pembangunan Panca Budi); Nasution, Muhammad Dharma Tuah Putra
    Abstract: Simple negligence can be a fatal impact. The threat of cyber in 2017 is feeble, and it starts from “wanna cry” until “nopetya” that the impact is relatively weak. The public also feels the threat of cybercrime even in many countries who have become the target of cyber-war, the society became the most disadvantaged. Cybercrimes have an impact on the National Security, financial loss and consumer confidence. Therefore, in the middle of the more high dependency, man will use information technology, cybersecurity must be the primary priority for a state. The Indonesian people still believe that only the information is available on the internet. Even though the information may unnecessarily is accurate. The results of a survey conducted by the CIGI Ipsos in 2016 released in 2017 shows that 65 percent of Indonesia receives the information is available on the internet without filtering the first.
    Date: 2018–06–29

This nep-ict issue is ©2019 by Marek Giebel. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
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