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on Information and Communication Technologies |
| By: | Fossen, Frank M. (University of Nevada, Reno); Sorgner, Alina (John Cabot University) |
| Abstract: | We investigate heterogeneous effects of new digital technologies on the individual-level employment- and wage dynamics in the U.S. labor market in the period from 2011-2018. We employ three measures that reflect different aspects of impacts of new digital technologies on occupations. The first measure, as developed by Frey and Osborne (2017), assesses the computerization risk of occupations, the second measure, developed by Felten et al. (2018), provides an estimate of recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI), and the third measure assesses the suitability of occupations for machine learning (Brynjolfsson et al., 2018), which is a subfield of AI. Our empirical analysis is based on large representative panel data, the matched monthly Current Population Survey (CPS) and its Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC). The results suggest that the effects of new digital technologies on employment stability and wage growth are already observable at the individual level. High computerization risk is associated with a high likelihood of switching one's occupation or becoming non-employed, as well as a decrease in wage growth. However, advances in AI are likely to improve an individual's job stability and wage growth. We further document that the effects are heterogeneous. In particular, individuals with high levels of formal education and older workers are most affected by new digital technologies. |
| Keywords: | digitalization, artificial intelligence, machine learning, employment stability, unemployment, wage dynamics |
| JEL: | J22 J23 O33 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12242&r=all |
| By: | Arianna Martinelli; Andrea Mina; Massimo Moggi |
| Abstract: | Technological revolutions mark profound transformations in socio-economic systems. They are associated with the diffusion of general purpose technologies that display very high degrees of pervasiveness, dynamism and complementarity. This paper provides an in-depth examination of the technologies underpinning the øfactory of the futureù as profiled by the Industry 4.0 paradigm. It contains an exploratory comparative analysis of the technological bases and the emergent patterns of development of Internet of Things (IoT), big data, cloud, robotics, artificial intelligence and additive manufacturing. By qualifying the øenablingù nature of these technologies, it explores to what extent their diffusion and convergence can be configured as the trigger of a fourth industrial revolution, and identifies key themes for future research on this topic from the viewpoint of industrial and corporate change. |
| Keywords: | Industry 4.0; technological paradigm; enabling technology; general purpose technology; disruptive innovation. |
| Date: | 2019–04–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2019/09&r=all |
| By: | Böckerman, Petri; Kortelainen, Mika; Laine, Liisa T.; Nurminen, Mikko; Saxell, Tanja |
| Abstract: | We exploit a large-scale natural experiment - the rollout of a nationwide electronic prescribing system in Finland - to study how digitization of prescriptions affects pharmaceutical use and health outcomes. We use comprehensive administrative data from patients treated with benzodiazepines, which are globally popular, effective but addictive psychotropic medications. We find no impact on benzodiazepine use on average, but among younger patients e-prescribing increases repeat prescription use. Younger patients' health outcomes do not improve but adverse outcomes, such as prescription drug abuse disorders and suicide attempts, increase dramatically. Improving access to medication through easier ordering may thus increase medication overuse. |
| Keywords: | health information technology, electronic prescribing, repeat prescriptions, inefficiency, medication overuse, Local public finance and provision of public services, H51, H75, I12, I18, |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fer:wpaper:117&r=all |
| By: | Maarten de Ridder (Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM); University of Cambridge) |
| Abstract: | Productivity growth has stagnated over the past decade. This paper argues that the rise of intangible inputs (such as information technology) can cause a slowdown of growth through the effect it has on production and competition. I hypothesize that intangibles cause a shift from variable costs to endogenous fixed costs, and use a new measure to show that the share of fixed costs in total costs rises when firms increase ICT and software investments. I then develop a quantitative framework in which intangibles reduce marginal costs and endogenously raise fixed costs, which gives firms with low adoption costs a competitive advantage. This advantage can be used to deter other firms from entering new markets and from developing higher quality products. Paradoxically, the presence of firms with high levels of intangibles can therefore reduce the rate of creative destruction and innovation. I calibrate the model using administrative data on the universe of French firms and find that, after initially boosting productivity, the rise of intangibles causes a 0.6 percentage point decline in long-term productivity growth. The model further predicts a decline in business dynamism, a fall in the labor share and an increase in markups, though markups overstate the increase in firm profits. |
| Keywords: | Business dynamism, Growth, Intangibles, Productivity, Market power |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfm:wpaper:1907&r=all |
| By: | Skjeret, Frode (SNF); Steen, Frode (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Wyndham, Timothy G.A. (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | The digitisation of society has posed a challenge to news outlets. Seeking advertising revenues and facing competition for the attention of their readers, many news outlets entered the digital era with unrestricted access to their online content. More recently, news outlets have sought to restrict the amount of content available for free. We quantify the impact of introducing a paywall on the demand for news in Norway. The short-run average impact of a paywall is negative and between 3 and 4%, in the long run the effect increases to between 9 and 11%. We find heterogeneity in the response to paywalls. The largest news outlet within its market experiences larger effects than the other news outlets. After introducing a paywall, the largest news outlets face a long-run reduction in demand between 13 and 15%, as compared to the others who experience a decrease of between 8 and 11%. The timing of introducing a paywall does not seem to affect the demand response very much. |
| Keywords: | Online news; paywalls; business models; two-sided markets |
| JEL: | D40 L20 L82 |
| Date: | 2019–05–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2019_007&r=all |
| By: | Julia Cage (Département d'économie); Nicolas Hervé (Institut national de l'audiovisuel); Marie-Luce Viaud (Institut national de l'audiovisuel) |
| Abstract: | This paper documents the extent of copying and estimates the returns to originality in online news production. We build a unique dataset combining all the online content produced by French news media during the year 2013 with new micro audience data. We develop a topic detection algorithm that identifies each news event, trace the timeline of each story, and study news propagation. We unravel new evidence on online news production. First, we document high reactivity of online media: one quarter of the news stories are reproduced online in under 4 minutes. Second, we show that this comes with extensive copying: only 33% of the online content is original. Third, we investigate the cost of copying for original news producers. Using article-level variations and media-level daily audience combined with article-level social media statistics, we find that readers partly switch to the original producers, thereby mitigating the newsgathering incentive problem raised by copying. |
| Keywords: | Internet; Information spreading; Copyright; Social media; Reputation |
| JEL: | L11 L15 L82 L86 |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3tcpvf3sd399op9sgtn8tq5bhd&r=all |
| By: | Grewenig, Elisabeth (Ifo Institute for Economic Research); Lergetporer, Philipp (Ifo Institute for Economic Research); Werner, Katharina (Ifo Institute for Economic Research); Woessmann, Ludger (Ifo Institute for Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | A large literature studies subjective beliefs about economic facts using unincentivized survey questions. We devise randomized experiments in a representative online survey to investigate whether incentivizing belief accuracy affects stated beliefs about average earnings by professional degree and average public school spending. Incentive provision does not impact earnings beliefs, but improves school-spending beliefs. Response patterns suggest that the latter effect likely reflects increased online-search activity. Consistently, an experiment that just encourages search-engine usage produces very similar results. Another experiment provides no evidence of experimenter-demand effects. Overall, results suggest that incentive provision does not reduce bias in our survey-based belief measures. |
| Keywords: | beliefs, incentives, online search, survey experiment |
| JEL: | D83 C83 C90 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12217&r=all |
| By: | Asongu, Simplice; Nwachukwu, Jacinta; Orim, Stella-Maris; Pyke, Chris |
| Abstract: | Purpose-The study complements the scant macroeconomic literature on the development outcomes of social media by examining the relationship between Facebook penetration and violent crime levels in a cross-section of 148 countries for the year 2012. Design/methodology/approach-The empirical evidence is based on Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Tobit and Quantile regressions. In order to respond to policy concerns on the limited evidence on the consequences of social media in developing countries, the dataset is disaggregated into regions and income levels. The decomposition by income levels included: low income, lower middle income, upper middle income and high income. The corresponding regions include: Europe and Central Asia, East Asia and the Pacific, Middle East and North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. Findings-From OLS and Tobit regressions, there is a negative relationship between Facebook penetration and crime. However, Quantile regressions reveal that the established negative relationship is noticeable exclusively in the 90th crime quantile. Further, when the dataset is decomposed into regions and income levels, the negative relationship is evident in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) while a positive relationship is confirmed for sub-Saharan Africa. Policy implications are discussed. Originality/value- Studies on the development outcomes of social media are sparse because of a lack of reliable macroeconomic data on social media. This study primarily complemented five existing studies that have leveraged on a newly available dataset on Facebook. |
| Keywords: | Crime; Social media; ICT; Global evidence; Social networks |
| JEL: | D74 D83 K42 O30 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:93234&r=all |
| By: | Basu, Kaushik (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | The advance of digital technology is changing the nature of markets, enhancing the capacity of corporations to extract more consumers' surplus and lower the wages paid to workers. The rise of new technology has also diminished the efficacy of traditional laws to regulate firms and corporations. This is best illustrated by antitrust laws. With the new technology, there is greater returns to scale in production, and further, it is possible to have different components of the same final good be produced by different firms in faraway places. Unlike in earlier times the n firms in one industry, say the automobile industry, would all be producing cars, now the n firms in that industry produce n different parts of the product, thereby getting enormous returns to scale. Such markets are described as vertically serrated markets and their equilibria are characterized. Traditional antitrust law does not apply to these markets because the high returns to scale are natural and not artificially induced. This compels us to look for novel ways to regulate such markets. This paper discusses, in particular, laws that compel firms to have widely dispersed share holdings. |
| Keywords: | antitrust law, share distribution, technological advance, labor demand |
| JEL: | K21 L13 O33 |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izapps:pp146&r=all |
| By: | Pelin Berkmen; Kimberly Beaton; Dmitry Gershenson; Javier Arze del Granado; Kotaro Ishi; Meeyeon Kim; Emanuel Kopp; Marina V Rousset |
| Abstract: | In Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), financial technology has been growing rapidly and is on the agenda of many policy makers. Fintech provides opportunities to deepen financial development, competition, innovation, and inclusion in the region but also creates new and only partially understood risks to consumers and the financial system. This paper documents the evolution of fintech in LAC. In particular, the paper focuses on financial development, fintech landscape for domestic and cross border payments and alternative financing, cybersecurity, financial integrity and stability risks, regulatory responses, and considerations for central bank digital currencies. |
| Date: | 2019–03–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:19/71&r=all |
| By: | Absher, Samuel; Grier, Kevin |
| Abstract: | We explore the effect of mobile phone and internet access on levels of collective violent action within the Libyan Revolution. Eastern Libya experienced a state-implemented blackout shortly after widespread riots and protests began. However, with luck, ingenuity, and foreign aid, Libyan rebels forged an independent mobile phone network. We exploit the exogeneity of the timing of the network’s reactivation and use a variation of difference-in-differences (DID) to measure the effect on the frequency of collective violent action. While the dominant view in the literature is that cell access increases violence by lowering the costs of organizing, we find that the reactivation of the mobile phone network reduced violent collective action by 21%. We find this negative effect for all conflicts and for conflicts that can be identified as initiated by non-state actors. We also study mobile phone’s effect on collective deadly action and fatalities using a different source for conflicts, finding similar negative effects. We propose mechanisms that may explain the aggregate negative effect: (1) substitution of physical protests to digital protests, (3) the reduction of dissatisfaction toward the state, and (3) the use of mobile phones to avoid conflict with state actors. |
| Keywords: | Mobile phones and violence, natural experiments, Libyan revolution |
| JEL: | F51 |
| Date: | 2019–03–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:92627&r=all |