| Abstract: |
When similar patterns of expansion and contraction are observed across
sectors, we call this a business cycle. Yet explaining the similarity and
synchronization of these cycles across industries remains a puzzle. Whereas
output growth across industries is highly correlated, identifiable shocks,
like shocks to productivity, are far less correlated. While previous work has
examined complementarities in production, we propose that sectors make similar
input decisions because of complementarities in information acquisition.
Because information about driving forces has a high fixed cost of production
and a low marginal cost of replication, it can be more efficient for firms to
share the cost of discovering common shocks than to invest in uncovering
detailed sectoral information. Firms basing their decisions on this common
information make highly correlated production choices. This mechanism
amplifies the effects of common shocks, relative to sectoral shocks. |