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on Insurance Economics |
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Issue of 2022‒06‒20
twenty-two papers chosen by Soumitra K. Mallick Indian Institute of Social Welfare and Business Management |
| By: | Dionne, Georges (HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management); Desjardins, Denise (HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management) |
| Abstract: | Cummins, Doherty, and Lo (2002) present a theoretical and empirical analysis of the capacity of the property liability insurance industry in the U.S. to finance catastrophic losses. In their theoretical analysis, they show that a sufficient condition for capacity maximization is for all insurers to hold a net of reinsurance underwriting portfolio that is perfectly correlated with aggregate industry losses. Estimating capacity from insurers’ financial statement data, they find that the U.S. insurance industry could adequately fund a $100 billion event in 1997. As a matter of comparison, Hurricane Katrina in 2005 cost the insurance industry $40 to $55 billion (2005 dollars). Our main objective is to update the study of Cummins et al (2002) with new data available up to the end of 2020. We verify how the insurance market’s capacity has evolved over recent years. We show that the U.S. insurance industry’s capacity to pay catastrophe losses is higher in 2020 than it was in 1997. Insurers could pay 98% of a $200 billion loss in 2020 in comparison to 81% in 1997. |
| Keywords: | Catastrophe loss; US insurance industry; industry capacity; reinsurance; climate finance; climate risk |
| JEL: | D53 D81 G22 G52 Q54 Q57 |
| Date: | 2022–05–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:crcrmw:2022_002&r= |
| By: | Ryan Defina (International Association of Deposit Insurers) |
| Abstract: | The field of deposit insurance is yet to realise fully the potential of machine learning, and the substantial benefits that it may present to its operational and policy-oriented activities. There are practical opportunities available (some specified in this paper) that can assist in improving deposit insurers’ relationship with the technology. Sharing of experiences and learnings via international engagement and collaboration is fundamental in developing global best practices in this space. |
| Keywords: | deposit insurance, bank resolution |
| JEL: | G21 G33 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:awl:finbri:3&r= |
| By: | Miller, Cristina (U.S. Department of Agriculture); Mishra, Ashok K. (Arizona State University) |
| Abstract: | The aging of the farmer population has led to concern about a shortage of beginning farmers and ranchers. This study investigates the impact of health insurance coverage and participation in government and private insurance programs on off-farm labor allocation decisions of beginning farm-operator households in the United States. We use farm household-level data from the 2015 Agricultural Resource Management Survey and the simultaneous Probit estimation method to estimate our empirical model. Results show that beginning farm-operator households with health insurance coverage from off-farm jobs are 14% more likely to work off the farm. Our analysis also depicts a negative relationship between the receipt of counter-cyclical, conservation, risk management payments, and off-farm work by beginning farm-operator households. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Resource Management Survey, beginning farm-operator household, counter-cyclical payments, risk management payments, health insurance coverage, off-farm labor supply, two-stage simultaneous probit model |
| JEL: | C34 I13 J22 J38 J43 Q12 Q18 |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15262&r= |
| By: | Carlos Colao (Fondo de Garantía de Depósitos de Entidades de Crédito); Roman Kahanek (Financial Market Guarantee System) |
| Abstract: | Accounts opened by financial institutions in banks on behalf of their clients ('beneficiary accounts') have become a common tool used by such institutions to safeguard and segregate from its own funds the money they received from clients. The rapid evolution of Fintech has fostered the use of beneficiary accounts, particularly by e-money institutions and payment institutions (hereinafter, 'EMI&PI'), which are regularly subject to these safeguarding requirements. In beneficiary accounts, EMI&PI can hold funds of a high number of clients. Thus, the protection of these funds and, where appropriate, coverage by the deposit insurance scheme (DIS) is acquiring greater relevance. Beneficiary accounts are deposits, and therefore and in principle they count with protection of DIS. However, the eligibility of these accounts for DIS coverage depends on the eligibility of the holder and/or the beneficiary of the balances deposited in the bank account. This Brief sets out possible approaches for DIS towards beneficiary accounts and identifies the main risks and challenges for DIS in the case of failure of the bank and EMI&PI where the funds are placed. |
| Keywords: | deposit insurance, bank resolution |
| JEL: | G21 G33 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:awl:finbri:7&r= |
| By: | De Donder, Philippe; Leroux, Marie-Louise; Salanié, François |
| Abstract: | Advantageous (or propitious) selection occurs when an increase in the premium of an in- surance contract induces high-cost agents to quit, thereby reducing the average cost among remaining buyers. Hemenway (1990) and many subsequent contributions motivate its ad- vent by differences in risk-aversion among agents, implying different prevention efforts. We argue that it may also appear in the absence of moral hazard, when agents only differ in riskiness and not in (risk) preferences. We first show that profit-maximization implies that advantageous selection is more likely when markup rates and the elasticity of insurance demand are high. We then move to standard settings satisfying the single-crossing prop- erty and show that advantageous selection may occur when several contracts are offered, when agents also face a non-insurable background risk, or when agents face two mutually exclusive risks that are bundled together in a single insurance contract. We exemplify this last case with life care annuities, a product which bundles long-term care insurance and annuities, and we use Canadian survey data to provide an example of a contract facing advantageous selection. |
| Keywords: | Propitious selection; Positive or negative correlation property; Contract bundling; Long-term care insurance; Annuity |
| JEL: | D82 I13 |
| Date: | 2022–05–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:126901&r= |
| By: | Giampiero Marra; Matteo Fasiolo; Rosalba Radice; Rainer Winkelmann |
| Abstract: | Previous evidence shows that better insurance coverage increases medical expenditure. However, formal studies on the effect of spending on health outcomes, and especially mental health, are lacking. To fill this gap, we reanalyze data from the Rand Health Insurance Experiment and estimate a joint non-linear model of spending and mental health. We address the endogeneity of spending in a flexible copula regression model with Bernoulli and Tweedie margins and discuss its implementation in the freely available GJRM R package. Results confirm the importance of accounting for endogeneity: in the joint model, a $1000 spending in mental care is estimated to reduce the probability of low mental health by 1.3 percentage points, but this effect is not statistically significant. Ignoring endogeneity leads to a spurious (upwardly biased) estimate. |
| Keywords: | Binary response, co-payment, copula, health expenditures, penalized regression spline, Rand experiment, simultaneous estimation, Tweedie distribution |
| JEL: | I13 C31 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zur:econwp:413&r= |
| By: | Daniel Hoople (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) |
| Abstract: | This Brief provides a high-level overview of data standardisation and identifies how data standards could affect deposit insurers, depository institutions, and depositors. The Brief focuses on data typically collected, shared, and reported by deposit insurers, but also refers to consumer data and other data used by depository institutions. It concludes with questions for deposit insurers to consider. |
| Keywords: | deposit insurance, bank resolution |
| JEL: | G21 G33 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:awl:finbri:2&r= |
| By: | Lei Fang; Jun Nie; Zoe Xie |
| Abstract: | The regular unemployment insurance (UI) program in the United States requires workers to have a minimum amount of earnings as well as a sufficient work history before unemployment. Low-wage workers are more likely to have a short work history before unemployment because they are more likely to be separated from their jobs. Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) under the CARES Act temporarily eliminated the requirements for minimum past earnings and length of employment, thus making many low-wage workers who were ineligible for UI under the regular program temporarily eligible. The extra weekly benefit provided by Federal Pandemic Unemployment compensation (FPUC) under the CARES Act UI was also more important to low-wage workers. Hence low-wage workers benefited more from the CARES Act UI policies. |
| Keywords: | CARES Act; pandemic unemployment assistance; unemployment insurance; minimum past earning requirement; labor markets; fiscal policy |
| JEL: | J64 J65 E24 |
| Date: | 2022–04–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:a00001:94150&r= |
| By: | Philippe De Donder; Marie-Louise Leroux |
| Abstract: | Advantageous (or propitious) selection occurs when an increase in the premium of an insurance contract induces high-cost agents to quit, thereby reducing the average cost among remaining buyers. Hemenway (1990) and many subsequent contributions motivate its advent by differences in risk-aversion among agents, implying different prevention efforts. We argue that it may also appear in the absence of moral hazard, when agents only differ in riskiness and not in (risk) preferences. We first show that profit-maximization implies that advantageous selection is more likely when markup rates and the elasticity of insurance demand are high. We then move to standard settings satisfying the single-crossing property and show that advantageous selection may occur when several contracts are offered, when agents also face a non-insurable background risk, or when agents face two mutually exclusive risks that are bundled together in a single insurance contract. We exemplify this last case with life care annuities, a product which bundles long-term care insurance and annuities, and we use Canadian survey data to provide an example of a contract facing advantageous selection. To quote this document : De Donder P., Leroux M-L and Salanié F. (2022). Advantageous selection without moral hazard (with an application to life care annuities). (2022s-13, CIRANO). https://doi.org/10.54932/NQVT3458 La sélection avantageuse (ou propice) se produit lorsqu'une augmentation de la prime d'un contrat d'assurance incite les acteurs à coût élevé à démissionner, réduisant ainsi le coût moyen parmi les acheteurs restants. Hemenway (1990) et de nombreuses contributions ultérieures motivent son apparition par des différences d'aversion au risque entre les acteurs, impliquant des efforts de prévention différents. Nous soutenons que la sélection avantageuse peut également apparaître en l'absence d'aléa moral, lorsque les agents ne diffèrent que par leur niveau de risque et non par leurs préférences (en matière de risque). Nous montrons d'abord que la maximisation du profit implique que la sélection avantageuse est plus probable lorsque les taux de marge et l'élasticité de la demande d'assurance sont élevés. Nous étudions ensuite des environnements économiques standard dans lesquels la propriété de croisement unique est satisfaite et montrons que la sélection avantageuse peut se produire lorsque plusieurs contrats sont proposés, lorsque les acteurs sont également confrontés à un risque [supp : de fond] non assurable, ou lorsque les acteurs sont confrontés à deux risques mutuellement exclusifs qui sont regroupés dans un seul contrat d'assurance. Nous illustrons ce dernier cas avec [supp : les rentes viagères,] un produit qui regroupe l'assurance soins de longue durée et les rentes, et nous utilisons des données d'enquête canadiennes pour fournir un exemple de contrat faisant l'objet de sélection avantageuse. Pour citer ce document : De Donder P., Leroux M-L and Salanié F. (2022). Advantageous selection without moral hazard (with an application to life care annuities). (2022s-13, CIRANO). https://doi.org/10.54932/NQVT3458 |
| Keywords: | Propitious selection,positive or negative correlation property,contract bundling,long-term care insurance,annuity, Sélection propice,propriété de corrélation positive ou négative,regroupement de contrats,assurance soins de longue durée,rente |
| JEL: | D82 I13 |
| Date: | 2022–05–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2022s-13&r= |
| By: | Kristian S. Blickle; Katherine Engelman; Theo Linnemann; João A. C. Santos |
| Abstract: | The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) was designed to reduce household and lender flood-risk exposure and encourage lending. In this post, which is based on our related study, we show that in certain situations the program actually limits access to credit, particularly for low-income borrowers—an unintended consequence of this well-intentioned program. |
| Keywords: | flood maps; climate change; bank lending; regulation; unintended consequences |
| JEL: | D14 G52 |
| Date: | 2022–05–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:94257&r= |
| By: | Anna D'Ambrosio; Vincenzo Scrutinio |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we exploit the provision of higher UB at different points of the unemployment spell to shed light on the relative cost of insurance at different horizons after the job loss. First, we exploit a double cap system in an RDD setting to study the effect of higher benefit levels in the early part of unemployment spell on time on benefits and non-employment. We find that higher benefits increase the time spent on benefits and in non-employment, with no impact on new job quality. Second, we exploit an age-based discontinuity in benefit duration, which determines higher benefits later in the spell, to compare the behavioural and mechanical costs of these two variations in benefits. We find that the moral hazard costs are greater for higher benefit levels early in the spell. In addition, we provide evidence of a slight negative selection in long term unemployment and argue that the long-term unemployed face higher uncertainty in their employment prospects. These findings suggest that higher benefits later in the unemployment spell generate lower costs and would provide higher insurance. Our results question the optimality of strongly declining schedules for unemployment benefit levels. |
| Keywords: | unemployment insurance, benefit level, benefit duration, regression discontinuity design, optimal pattern |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1835&r= |
| By: | Marcelo Pedroni (University of Amsterdam); Swapnil Singh (Bank of Lithuania); Christian Stoltenberg (University of Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether US households possess advance information about their future income and what this means for consumption insurance. Based on insights from a theoretical model, we propose a new test to detect advance information, which requires only panel data on consumption and income. Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we find---in contrast to the existing literature---strong support for the existence of advance information. We use this evidence to estimate a standard incomplete markets model and find that advance information reduces households' income forecast errors by 15%. Our estimation results imply that 27% of all unexpected income changes are passed through to consumption. Ignoring advance information leads to a significant overestimation of consumption insurance and even more so at the bottom of the wealth distribution. |
| Keywords: | income risk, advance information, consumption insurance, panel data, incomplete markets |
| JEL: | C23 D12 D31 D52 D81 E21 G52 |
| Date: | 2022–04–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20220032&r= |
| By: | Brant Abbott; Nam Phan |
| Abstract: | We use a labor search model with heterogenous households and firms to study the efficacy of a wage subsidy during a pandemic, relative to enhancing unemployment benefits. A large proportion of the economy is forced to shut down, and firms in that sector choose whether to lay off workers or keep them on payroll. A wage subsidy encourages firms to keep workers on payroll, which speeds up labor market recovery after the pandemic ends. However, a wage subsidy can be costlier than enhancing unemployment benefits. If the shutdown is long or profit margins are low then a wage subsidy is preferable, and vice-versa. The optimal mixture of policies includes a wage subsidy that covers 90% the first $200/week of earnings, and expands unemployment benefits to cover all salary up to $275/week. Low income workers, as well as those in less productive jobs, benefit the most from a wage subsidy. |
| Keywords: | wage subsidy, unemployment insurance, search, pandemic, Covid-19 |
| JEL: | E2 E32 J40 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:wpaper:1486&r= |
| By: | Larry D. Wall |
| Abstract: | The US government has intervened to provide extraordinary support 16 times from 1970 to 2020 with the goal of preventing or mitigating (or both) the cost of financial instability to the financial sector and the real economy. This article discusses the motivation for such support, reviewing the instances where support was provided, along with one case where it was expected but not provided. The article then discusses the moral hazard and fiscal risks posed by the government's insurance of the tail risk along with ways to reduce the government's risk exposure. |
| Keywords: | financial stability; FDIC; Federal Reserve; Treasury; bailout; financial history |
| JEL: | F33 F36 G18 G21 G23 G28 G32 H12 H6 N22 |
| Date: | 2021–11–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:a00001:94154&r= |
| By: | Mari, Gabriele; Keizer, Renske; van Gaalen, Ruben |
| Abstract: | It is not unusual for children to have a parent who faces unemployment at one time or another. Such timing, particularly within the school year, might obstacle children’s educational transitions. We further theorise and test how unemployment’s timing effects vary depending on private and public insurance mechanisms, respectively parental wealth and unemployment benefits. We rely on administrative data from the Netherlands, a country with a stratified educational system and wide wealth disparities, on cohorts of students born between 1992 and 1998, thus covering the late 2000s and early 2010s (> 45,000 paternal/maternal unemployment spells). With a negative control design, we find that a spell of paternal unemployment occurring just before the high-stakes test in 6th grade decreases children’s chances of enrolling in the secondary-school tracks that prepare for Dutch higher education, but only in families with lower wealth. Effects are moderate, amounting to 4 percentage points or 15% of the baseline. Lacking private insurance, these effects reduce (increase) when households receive larger (smaller) unemployment benefit amounts, particularly above median values. Suggestive evidence points to depressed test performance as part of the mechanism at play. For enrolment in postsecondary school, we do not find evidence, differently, that children are more or less affected depending on when parents enter unemployment. Findings can inform when to target remedial interventions, highlighting how and for whom the timing of disruptive events may exert negative intergenerational effects. |
| Date: | 2022–04–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:7rm6g&r= |
| By: | Osuagwu, Eze Simpson |
| Abstract: | The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010 is considered the most comprehensive piece of healthcare legislation aimed at providing a universal coverage for the American people. Nonetheless, the controversy surrounding the implementation of this Act stems from the principles of federalism and intergovernmental relations that is inherent in the constitution. As a result, the various states decision to run their exchanges creates disparities in healthcare costs and accessibility. This paper argues that federal interventions do not provide an answer to these anomalies but suggests that the leadership failure in the implementation could be addressed through a Christian worldview. |
| Keywords: | Federalism, Healthcare Reform, Affordable Care Act, Statesmanship. |
| JEL: | Z1 Z12 Z18 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:113001&r= |
| By: | Amanda Lechner; Nyna Williams; Rachel Kogan; Burke Hays; Theresa Feeley-Summerl; Tammy Chen |
| Abstract: | Care management has the potential to improve quality of care and health outcomes for chronic conditions, but questions remain about how patients perceive care management. |
| Keywords: | behavioral health, primary care, Medicare, qualitative research |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:23a40343c9fa4fe3817cdaa13761d95e&r= |
| By: | Manuel Ventura-Marco (Department of Financial Economics and Actuarial Science, University of Valencia, Valencia. (Spain)); Carlos Vidal-Meliá (Department of Financial Economics and Actuarial Science, University of Valencia (Spain) and research affiliate with the Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (ICAE), Complutense University of Madrid (Spain).); Juan Manuel Pérez-Salamero González (Department of Financial Economics and Actuarial Science, University of Valencia, Valencia. (Spain)) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the possibility of including cash-for-care benefits in life care annuities (LCAs) to help retired couples cope with the cost of long-term care (LTC). It aims to assess how much it would cost to add an extra stream of payments to annuities for couples should either or both require LTC. We present an actuarial method based on array calculus to value this type of LCA. The impact of introducing the LTC contingency on the annuity is assessed by comparing the initial benefits in both cases. The difference in the initial benefit arises due to the annuity factors used to compute the benefits. We also analyse how willing couples would be to choose this type of LCA. Using Australian LTC transition probability data for a realistic calibration and assuming independence of the risks involved, we numerically illustrate the model and the theoretical findings implied. The paper highlights the importance of reporting the expected years both spouses will be alive (joint life expectancy) and the expected years the surviving spouse will be a widow(er) (survivor life expectancy) broken down by health state, given that this information makes the computation of the actuarial factors transparent and provides highly useful information to help the couple understand the need to be protected against the cost of LTC services. |
| Keywords: | Australia; Couples; Joint life expectancy; Illness-death multistate model; Life Care Annuities; Long-Term Care Insurance; Retirement. |
| JEL: | G22 H55 I13 J14 J26 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucm:doicae:2203&r= |
| By: | Gustafsson, Johan (Department of Economics, Umeå University); Holmberg, Johan (Department of Economics, Umeå University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the role of permanent- and transitory earnings variability for lifetime income inequality in Sweden. We fit a permanent–transitory error component model to the autocovariance structure of earnings using administrative data for 2002–2015 and minimum distance estimation. We find that permanent earnings inequality increased during the first decade and that the financial crisis of 2008 temporarily heightened earnings volatility. Using this model, we simulate pensions and study lifetime income inequality. We find that permanent earnings differences generally contributes the most to lifetime income inequality. We conclude that the Swedish pension system provides some insurance against earnings risk, but accentuates the role of permanent earnings differences in explaining lifetime inequality. |
| Keywords: | Permanent-transitory; Income pension entitlements; earning dynamics; life-cycle inequality |
| JEL: | H55 I24 J31 J62 |
| Date: | 2022–05–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:umnees:1005&r= |
| By: | Bruno Coquet (DARES - Direction de l'animation de la recherche, des études et des statistiques - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé, OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | La réforme de l'assurance chômage était l'une des pierres angulaires du projet présidentiel. Il s'agissait notamment de « simplifier le droit, réformer l'assurance chômage pour en faire un droit universel » (ouverture aux démissionnaires et indépendants), mais aussi « combattre la précarité en responsabilisant les employeurs par la création d'un bonus-malus », en contrepartie « d'exigences nouvelles pour chacun » et d'une « amélioration du pouvoir d'achat de tous les travailleurs » (« salariés, indépendants et fonctionnaires ») « sans que cela ne revienne plus cher aux employeurs ». En réalité, l'assurance chômage n'a pas subi une réforme mais deux : d'abord une réforme institutionnelle aussi structurante que rondement menée, puis la réforme bien connue des règles d'indemnisation, compliquée et étirée dans le temps, en raison de la crise sanitaire et des recours en Conseil d'État de ses opposants. Au total le résultat est très différent de ce qui était annoncé. |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03615525&r= |
| By: | Anikó Bíró (Centre for Economic and Regional Studies); Blanka Imre (University of Groningen and Centre for Economic and Regional Studies) |
| Abstract: | The shortage of primary care physicians is a global healthcare problem, especially in rural areas. In this paper, we analyse the choice of location of primary care physicians and estimate the causal effect of financial incentives on the supply of primary care physicians in underserved areas. Our analysis is based on a quasi-experimental setting from Hungary. After 2015, primary care physicians could receive financial subsidy if they filled such a primary care position which has been vacant for at least a year, the amount of the subsidy increasing with the duration of the vacancy. Our results suggest that targeted financial incentives can help fill long-time vacant primary care positions but cannot completely eliminate primary care shortages. We also provide evidence on the role of demographic characteristics and individual preferences in the location choice of primary care physicians. |
| Keywords: | primary care; physician shortage; financial subsidy; location choice; Hungary |
| JEL: | H20 I11 I18 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:2210&r= |
| By: | Paula Garda; Jens Matthias Arnold |
| Abstract: | The pandemic has highlighted significant gaps in social protection, in particularamong informal workers. With around 60% of workers in informal jobs, many of those most in need of social protection are left behind. The government has attempted to fill this gap with non-contributory benefits, but coverage and benefit levels are low. Better-off formal workers have access to a full range of social protection benefits, involving large-scale public subsidies that widen the gap. Labour informality and social protection coverage are interlinked, as high social contributions are one of the main barriers to formal job creation. Ensuring some universal basic social protection, while simultaneously lowering the cost of formal employment, would reduce labour informality, poverty and inequality and raise productivity, all of which are long-standing challenges in Colombia. |
| Keywords: | Colombia, employment, health, informality, pensions, public policy, social protection |
| JEL: | H51 H53 H55 I14 J32 J43 J65 |
| Date: | 2022–05–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1715-en&r= |