nep-ias New Economics Papers
on Insurance Economics
Issue of 2021‒08‒16
25 papers chosen by
Soumitra K. Mallick
Indian Institute of Social Welfare and Business Management

  1. Employment Patterns of SSI-First Awardees Who Enter SSDI After Achieving Disability-Insured Status By Jessica Laird; Yonatan Ben-Shalom; Priyanka Anand
  2. Earnings Shocks and Stabilization During COVID-19 By Jeff Larrimore; Jacob Mortenson; David Splinter
  3. The impact of foreign direct Investment on the development of weather index insurance for low-income farmers in Southern Africa By Mathithibane, Mpho Steve
  4. Inertia, Market Power, and Adverse Selection in Health Insurance: Evidence from the ACA Exchanges By Evan Saltzman; Ashley Swanson; Daniel Polsky
  5. Insurance Companies and the Growth of Corporate Loans' Securitization By Fulvia Fringuellotti; Joao A. C. Santos
  6. Deposit Insurance, Bank Ownership and Depositor Behavior By Sumeyra Atmaca; Karolin Kirschenmann; Steven Ongena; Koen J. L. Schoors
  7. Limited Liability and the Demand for Coinsurance by Individuals and Corporations By Andrea Bergesio; Pablo Koch-Medina; Cosimo Munari
  8. Can the Indonesian banking industry benefit from a risk-based deposit insurance system? By Nizar, Muhammad Afdi; Mansur, Alfan
  9. Long-Term Effects of the Comprehensive Primary Care Model on Health Care Spending and Utilization By Ning Fu; Pragya Singh; Stacy Dale; Sean Orzol; Deborah Peikes; Arkadipta Ghosh; Randall Brown; Timothy J. Day
  10. A bridge between Local GAAP and Solvency II frameworks to quantify Capital Requirement for demographic risk By Gian Paolo Clemente; Francesco Della Corte; Nino Savelli
  11. Value of Life and Annuity Demand By Pashchenko, Svetlana; Porapakkarm, Ponpoje
  12. Return-to-Work Policies' Clawback Regime and Labor Supply in Disability Insurance Programs By Zaresani, Arezou; Olivo-Villabrille, Miguel
  13. Revalorisation 2020 des contrats d’assurance-vie et de capitalisation – engagements à dominante retraite collectifs By Gaëlle Capitaine,; Frédéric Ahado.
  14. Financial Dollarization in Emerging Markets: Efficient Risk Sharing or Prescription for Disaster? By Lawrence Christiano; Hüsnü Dalgic; Armen Nurbekyan
  15. Why a Labour Market Boom Does Not Necessarily Bring Down Inequality: Putting Together Germany’s Inequality Puzzle By Martin Biewen; Miriam Sturm
  16. Risk Concentration and the Mean-Expected Shortfall Criterion By Xia Han; Bin Wang; Ruodu Wang; Qinyu Wu
  17. Do Urgent Care Centers Reduce Medicare Spending? By Janet Currie; Anastasia Karpova; Dan Zeltzer
  18. What's Wrong with Annuity Markets? By Stéphane Verani; Pei Cheng Yu
  19. Fairness in Incomplete Information Bargaining: Theory and Widespread Evidence from the Field By Daniel Keniston; Bradley J. Larsen; Shengwu Li; J.J. Prescott; Bernardo S. Silveira; Chuan Yu
  20. Knowing When to Splurge: Precautionary Saving and Chinese-Canadians By Mark S. Manger; J. Scott Matthews
  21. Panama: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Panama By International Monetary Fund
  22. Trends in Labor Supply of Older Men and the Role of Social Security By Zhixiu Yu
  23. Variation in Staff Salary Costs Associated with Characteristics of Substance Use Disorder Treatment Facilities By Ellen Bouchery; Monica Farid
  24. Le marché de l’assurance vie pendant la crise sanitaire By Cécile Fraysse,; Saïda Baddou,; Stéphane Jarrijon.
  25. Modelling the impact of Covid-19 on the UK economy: an application of a disaggregated New-Keynesian model By Cyrille Lenoel; Garry Young

  1. By: Jessica Laird; Yonatan Ben-Shalom; Priyanka Anand
    Abstract: This article uses administrative data from the Social Security Administration to explore the employment patterns and characteristics of individuals awarded Supplemental Security Income benefits between 2001 and 2009 who later qualified for Social Security Disability Insurance.
    Keywords: employment, social security, supplemental security income, insurance, disability
  2. By: Jeff Larrimore; Jacob Mortenson; David Splinter
    Abstract: This paper documents the magnitude and distribution of U.S. earnings changes during the COVID-19 pandemic and how fiscal relief offset lost earnings. We build panels from administrative tax data to measure annual earnings changes. The frequency of earnings declines during the pandemic were similar to the Great Recession, but the distribution was very different. In 2020, workers starting in the bottom half of the distribution were more likely to experience large annual earnings declines and a similar share of male and female workers had large earnings declines. While most workers experiencing large annual earnings declines do not receive unemployment insurance, over half of beneficiaries were made whole in 2020, as unemployment insurance replaced a median of 103 percent of their annual earnings declines. After incorporating unemployment insurance, the likelihood of large earnings declines among low-earning workers was not only smaller than during the Great Recession, but also smaller than in 2019.
    Keywords: COVID-19; Wage earnings; Stimulus checks; Unemployment insurance; Countercyclical policy
    JEL: D31 E24 H53 J30 J65
    Date: 2021–08–02
  3. By: Mathithibane, Mpho Steve
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on the growth of agricultural insurance markets for low-income farmers in Southern Africa for the period 2010 to 2020. Agricultural insurance products for low-income farmers are typically based on weather index insurance contracts. These insurance contracts are cost-effective responses to uninsured agricultural risk in developing economies, and are often considered part of effective ex-ante climate change adaptation strategies. The approach followed in this paper is to assess the extent of FDI transactional flows based on a literature review of past and present pilots as well as market-based weather index insurance schemes. The findings revealed that FDI is relatively low to support weather index insurance development and there exists massive scale for expansion and economic growth opportunities. The study advocates for an improved policy environment with a focus on increasing agricultural productivity among low-income farmers while promoting parallel climate change mitigation strategies, this is likely to have spill-over effects on the acceleration and development of appropriate insurance solutions.
    Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, weather index insurance, Southern African Development Community, Southern African.
    JEL: Q14
    Date: 2021
  4. By: Evan Saltzman; Ashley Swanson; Daniel Polsky
    Abstract: We study how inertia interacts with market power and adverse selection in managed competition health insurance markets. We use consumer-level data to estimate a model of the California ACA exchange, in which four firms dominate the market and risk adjustment is in place to manage selection. We estimate high inertia costs, equal to 44% of average premiums. Although eliminating inertia exacerbates adverse selection, it significantly reduces market power such that average premiums decrease 13.2% and annual per-capita welfare increases $902. These effects are substantially smaller in settings without market power and/or risk adjustment. Moreover, converting the ACA's premium-linked subsidies to vouchers mitigates the impact of inertia by reducing market power, whereas reducing high consumer churn in the ACA exchanges increases the impact of inertia by enhancing market power. The impact of inertia is not sensitive to provider network generosity, despite greater consumer attachment to plans with more differentiated provider networks.
    JEL: G22 I11 I13 L1
    Date: 2021–07
  5. By: Fulvia Fringuellotti; Joao A. C. Santos
    Abstract: We show that insurance companies have almost nonupled their investments in collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) in the post-crisis period, reaching total holdings of $125 billion in 2019. The growth in CLOs’ investments has far outpaced that of loans and corporate bonds, and was characterized by a strong preference for mezzanine tranches rated investment grade over triple-A rated tranches. We document that these phenomena reflect a search for yield behavior. Conditional on capital charges, insurance companies invest more heavily in bonds and CLO tranches with higher yields. Preferences for CLO tranches derived from tranches’ higher yields relative to bonds with the same rating, and increased following the 2010 capital regulatory reform, resulting in insurance companies holding more than 40 percent of mezzanine tranches outstanding in 2019. In the process, insurance companies created the demand for the risky tranches that are critical to the CLO issuance.
    Keywords: insurance companies; CLOs; regulatory arbitrage; corporate loans; securitization
    JEL: G11 G20 G22
    Date: 2021–08–01
  6. By: Sumeyra Atmaca (Ghent University); Karolin Kirschenmann (ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research); Steven Ongena (University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance; Swiss Finance Institute; KU Leuven; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)); Koen J. L. Schoors (Ghent University - Centre for Russian International Socio-Political and Economic Studies (CERISE); Ghent University - Department of General Economics)
    Abstract: We employ proprietary data from a large bank to analyze how – in times of crisis – depositors react to a bank nationalization, re-privatization and an accompanying increase in deposit insurance. Nationalization slows depositors fleeing the bank, provided they have sufficient trust in the national government, while the increase in deposit insurance spurs depositors below the new 100K limit to deposit more. Prior to nationalization, depositors bunch just below the then-prevailing 20K limit. But they abandon bunching entirely during state-ownership, to return to bunching below the new 100K limit after re-privatization. Especially depositors with low switching costs are moving money around.
    Keywords: deposit insurance; coverage limit; bank nationalization; depositor heterogeneity
    JEL: G21 G28 H13 N23
    Date: 2021–01
  7. By: Andrea Bergesio (University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance; Swiss Finance Institute); Pablo Koch-Medina (University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance; Swiss Finance Institute); Cosimo Munari (University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance; Swiss Finance Institute)
    Abstract: Within the context of expected utility and in a discrete loss setting, we provide a complete account of the demand for insurance by strictly-risk averse agents and risk-neutral firms when they enjoy limited liability. When exposed to a bankrupting, binary loss and under actuarially fair prices, individuals and firms will either fully insure or not insure at all. The decision to insure will depend on whether the benefits the insuree derives from insurance after having compensated the damaged party are sufficiently attractive to justify the premium paid. When the loss is nonbinary, even when prices are actuarially fair, any amount of coinsurance can be optimal depending on the nature of the loss.
    Keywords: insurance, risk-averse agent, risk-neutral firm, franchise value, limited liability
    JEL: D21 D81 G22 G32 G33
    Date: 2021–05
  8. By: Nizar, Muhammad Afdi; Mansur, Alfan
    Abstract: A risk-based premium scheme could be a reliable system to determine a fairer deposit insurance premium. This research aimed to assess Indonesian banks’ risk profile, including per size classification and ownership as well as to counterfactually simulate a risk-based deposit insurance system for the individual banks. This research combined analysis of variance (ANOVA) and non-parametric approach applied to 75 banks (2008q1-2019q3). The results showed that big banks did not necessarily posture better risk management compared to small banks. Also, under the risk-based scheme, banks with better risk management could be rewarded, while less prudent banks could be punished.
    Keywords: Deposit; premium; flat-rate; risk-based; banks; insurance
    JEL: C12 C54 G21 G28 G3 G30
    Date: 2021–05
  9. By: Ning Fu; Pragya Singh; Stacy Dale; Sean Orzol; Deborah Peikes; Arkadipta Ghosh; Randall Brown; Timothy J. Day
    Abstract: The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services launched the 4-year Comprehensive Primary Care Initiative (CPC Classic) in 2012 and its 5-year successor, CPC Plus (CPC+), in 2017 to test whether improving primary care delivery in five areas—and providing practices with financial and technical support—reduced spending and improved quality.
    Keywords: CPC, comprehensive primary care, health care spending, utilization
  10. By: Gian Paolo Clemente; Francesco Della Corte; Nino Savelli
    Abstract: The paper provides a stochastic model useful for assessing the capital requirement for demographic risk. The model extends to the market consistent context classical methodologies developed in a local accounting framework. In particular we provide a unique formulation for different non-participating life insurance contracts and we prove analytically that the valuation of demographic profit can be significantly affected by the financial conditions in the market. A case study has been also developed considering a portfolio of life insurance contracts. Results prove the effectiveness of the model in highlighting main drivers of capital requirement evaluation, also compared to local GAAP framework.
    Date: 2021–07
  11. By: Pashchenko, Svetlana; Porapakkarm, Ponpoje
    Abstract: How does the value of life affect annuity demand? To address this question, we construct a portfolio choice problem with three key features: i) agents have access to life-contingent assets, ii) they always prefer living to dying, iii) agents have non-expected utility preferences. We show that as utility from being alive increases, annuity demand decreases (increases) if agents are more (less) averse to risk rather than to intertemporal fluctuations. Put differently, if people prefer early resolution of uncertainty, they are less interested in annuities when the value of life is high. Our findings have two important implications. First, we get better understanding of the well-known annuity puzzle. Second, we argue that the observed low annuity demand provides evidence that people prefer early rather than late resolution of uncertainty.
    Keywords: annuities, value of a statistical life, portfolio choice problem, life-contingent assets, longevity insurance
    JEL: D91 G11 G22
    Date: 2021–04–15
  12. By: Zaresani, Arezou (University of Manitoba); Olivo-Villabrille, Miguel (ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR))
    Abstract: Exploiting a quasi-natural experiment and using administrative data, we examine the effects of the return-to-work policies' clawback regime in Disability Insurance (DI) programs on beneficiaries' labor supply decisions, allowing them to collect reduced DI payments while working. We compare two return-to-work policies: one with a single rate clawback regime and another with a progressive clawback regime where a reform further increased its progressiveness. The reform caused an increase in the mean labor supply; beneficiaries who already work, work more, and those who did not work start working. The effects are heterogeneous by beneficiaries characteristics, and the increase is driven mainly by top percentiles of earnings. Findings suggest an essential role for the clawback regime in return-to-work policies and targeted policies to increase the labor supply in DI programs.
    Keywords: disability insurance, clawback rate, return-to-work policy, financial incentives, labor supply
    JEL: D3 H3 I3 J3
    Date: 2021–07
  13. By: Gaëlle Capitaine,; Frédéric Ahado.
    Abstract: Les contrats d’assurance-vie collective sont en majeure partie des produits de retraite apportant aux bénéficiaires un complément de revenu au moment de leur liquidation. Le marché regroupe plusieurs catégories de contrats représentant un total de 123 milliards d’euros d’encours en 2020 contre 121 milliards d’euros en 2019 . La catégorie « des contrats collectifs en cas de vie », qui représente 3/4 des encours des contrats d’assurance-vie à dominante retraite , est la plus importante . À périmètre constant (net des transferts vers les Organismes de retraite professionnelle supplémentaire - ORPS), le taux de revalorisation moyen des fonds euros des contrats collectifs à dominante retraite (hors retraite à points) est en baisse à 1,86% en 2020 contre 2,02% en 2019 (net de prélèvements sur encours et avant prélèvements sociaux). Le niveau de provisionnement de la participation aux bénéfices est quant à lui stable et s’établit à 2,3% des encours en 2020 pour ces catégories de contrat. Les taux de revalorisation des contrats collectifs en cas de vie s’établissent en moyenne à 1,94 % en 2020 et ceux des contrats PERP demeurent les plus faibles du marché à 1,09 %. Ces différences s’expliquent en grande partie par des contraintes de taux techniques très variables selon les catégories de contrats. Les PERP ont notamment un taux technique nul. S’agissant des garanties octroyées, le taux technique moyen rattaché aux contrats d’assurance-vie collectifs à dominante retraite poursuit sa baisse : 1,24% en 2020 contre 1,32% en 2018. Cependant, dans le contexte de baisse des rendements obligataires en 2020, ce taux constitue une contrainte de plus en plus significative pour les organismes. Enfin, le taux de chargement de gestion des contrats payé par les assurés augmente à 0,47% en moyenne contre 0,43% en 2019 .
    Date: 2021
  14. By: Lawrence Christiano; Hüsnü Dalgic; Armen Nurbekyan
    Abstract: This paper pushes back against two views about the effects of dollarization. First, there is a view that the dollar is a device by which rich countries provide business cycle insurance to emerging market (EME) countries. We find that the dollar is important for risk sharing, but the evidence suggests that it is primarily a device to shift business cycle risk across different people within individual EMEs and within rich countries rather than across countries. Second, there is a widespread view that dollarization raises the risk of systemic banking and other crises. Although we identify sources of fragility in some aspects of dollarization, the common view that financial dollarization is a source of fragility is over-stated. Our insurance view about financial dollarization and the lack of risks to financial stability emerges from a study of a large cross-country dataset, as well as case studies for Peru and Armenia. We develop a simple model which formalizes the insurance view, which is consistent with the key cross-country facts on interest rate differentials, deposit dollarization and exchange rate depreciations in recessions.
    JEL: F3 F4 G15
    Date: 2021–07
  15. By: Martin Biewen; Miriam Sturm
    Abstract: After an economically tough start into the new millennium, Germany experienced an unprecedented employment boom after 2005 only stopped by the COVID-19 pandemic. Persistently high levels of inequality despite a booming labour market and drastically falling unemployment rates constituted a puzzle, suggesting either that the German job miracle mainly benefitted individuals in the mid- or high-income range or that other developments offset the effects of the drastically improved labour market conditions. The present paper solves this puzzle by breaking down the observed changes in the distribution of disposable incomes between 2005/06 and 2015/16 into the contributions of eight different factors, one of them being the employment boom. Our results suggest that, while the latter did have an equalising impact, it was partially offseet by the disequalising impact of other factors and substantially dampened by the tax and transfer system. Our results point to a strong role of the German tax and transfer system as a distributional stabilizer implying that, if the COVID-19 shock were to persistently reverse all the employment gains that occurred during the boom, this would only have a moderately disequalising effect on the distribution of net incomes.
    Keywords: income distribution, employment, social insurance, labour market reform
    JEL: C14 D31 I30
    Date: 2021
  16. By: Xia Han; Bin Wang; Ruodu Wang; Qinyu Wu
    Abstract: Expected Shortfall (ES, also known as CVaR) is the most important coherent risk measure in finance, insurance, risk management, and engineering. Recently, Wang and Zitikis (2021) put forward four economic axioms for portfolio risk assessment and provide the first economic axiomatic foundation for the family of ES. In particular, the axiom of no reward for concen- tration (NRC) is arguably quite strong, which imposes an additive form of the risk measure on portfolios with a certain dependence structure. We relax the axiom of NRC by introducing the notion of concentration aversion, which does not impose any specific form of the risk measure. It turns out that risk measures with concentration aversion are functions of ES and the expec- tation. Together with the other three standard axioms of monotonicity, translation invariance and lower semicontinuity, concentration aversion uniquely characterizes the family of ES. This result enhances the axiomatic theory for ES as no particular additive form needs to be assumed ex-ante. Furthermore, our results provide an axiomatic foundation for the problem of mean-ES portfolio selection and lead to new explicit formulas for convex and consistent risk measures.
    Date: 2021–08
  17. By: Janet Currie; Anastasia Karpova; Dan Zeltzer
    Abstract: We examine the impact of the opening of a new urgent care center (UCC) on health care costs and the utilization of care among nearby Medicare beneficiaries. We focus on 2006–2016, a period of rapid UCC expansion. We find that total Medicare spending rises when residents of a zip code are first served by a UCC, relative to spending in yet-to-be-served zip codes, while mortality remains flat. We explore mechanisms by looking at categories of spending and by examining utilization. Increases in inpatient visits are the largest contributor to the overall increase in spending, rising by 6.65 percent within six years after UCC entry. The number of emergency room visits that result in a hospital admission also increases by 3.7 percent. In contrast, there is no change in the number of ER visits that do not result in admission to hospital, in visits to physicians outside a UCC, or in imaging and tests. Overall, these results provide little evidence that UCCs replace costly ER visits or that they crowd out visits to patients' regular doctors. Instead, the evidence is consistent with the possibility that UCCs—which are increasingly owned by or contract with hospital systems—induce greater spending on hospital care.
    JEL: I1 I11
    Date: 2021–07
  18. By: Stéphane Verani; Pei Cheng Yu
    Abstract: We show that the supply of life annuities in the U.S. is constrained by interest rate risk. We identify this effect using annuity prices offered by U.S. life insurers from 1989 to 2019 and exogenous variations in contract-level regulatory capital requirements. The cost of interest rate risk management accounts for at least half of the average life annuity markups or eight percentage points. The contribution of interest rate risk to annuity markups sharply increased after the great financial crisis, suggesting new retirees' opportunities to transfer their longevity risk are unlikely to improve in a persistently low interest rate environment.
    Keywords: Life insurance; Annuities; Corporate bond market; Retirement; Interest rate risk
    JEL: G10 G22 G32
    Date: 2021–07–30
  19. By: Daniel Keniston; Bradley J. Larsen; Shengwu Li; J.J. Prescott; Bernardo S. Silveira; Chuan Yu
    Abstract: This paper uses detailed data on sequential offers from seven vastly different real-world bargaining settings to document a robust pattern: agents favor offers that split the difference between the two most recent offers on the table. Our settings include negotiations for used cars, insurance injury claims, a TV game show, auto rickshaw rides, housing, international trade tariffs, and online retail. We demonstrate that this pattern can arise in a perfect Bayesian equilibrium of an alternating-offer game with two-sided incomplete information, but this equilibrium is far from unique. We then provide a robust-inference argument to explain why agents may view the two most recent offers as corresponding to the potential surplus. Split-the-difference offers under this weaker, robust inference can then be viewed as fair. We present a number of other patterns in each data setting that point to split-the-difference offers as a strong social norm, whether in high-stakes or low-stakes negotiations.
    JEL: C7 C78 D9 D91
    Date: 2021–07
  20. By: Mark S. Manger; J. Scott Matthews
    Abstract: Why do household saving rates differ so much across countries? This micro-level question has global implications: countries that systematically "oversave" export capital by running current account surpluses. In the recipient countries, interest rates are thus too low and financial stability is put at risk. Existing theories argue that saving is precautionary, but tests are limited to cross-country comparisons and are not always supportive. We report the findings of an original survey experiment. Using a simulated financial saving task implemented online, we compare the saving preferences of a large and diverse sample of Chinese-Canadians with other Canadians. This comparison is instructive given that Chinese-Canadians migrated from, or descend from those who migrated from, a high-saving environment to a low-savings, high-debt environment. We also compare behavior in the presence and absence of a simulated "welfare state," which we represent in the form of mandatory insurance. Our respondents exhibit behavior in the saving task that corresponds to standard economic assumptions about lifecycle savings and risk aversion. We find strong evidence that precautionary saving is reduced when a mandatory insurance is present, but no sign that Chinese cultural influences - represented in linguistic or ethnic terms - have any effect on saving behavior.
    Date: 2021–08
  21. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: After over two decades of unprecedented economic expansion, Panama’s economy contracted sharply in 2020 amidst challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic. As conditions rapidly deteriorated, Panama requested financial support under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) for 100 percent of quota equivalent to US$0.5 billion (SDR 0.4 billion) to address immediate balance of payments needs, which the IMF Executive Board approved on April 15, 2020. Subsequently, uncertainties magnified, and Panama requested a two-year arrangement under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) for 500 percent of quota, equivalent to US$2.7 billion (SDR 1.9 billion), as insurance against extreme external shocks, which was approved by the IMF Executive Board on January 19, 2021.
    Date: 2021–07–30
  22. By: Zhixiu Yu (University of Minnesota)
    Abstract: The labor supply of older men increased from the 1930s to the 1950s cohort. I estimate a structural model that fits the participation and hours worked by the 1930s cohort well. The observed policy changes in normal retirement age, the earnings test, and delayed retirement credits explain 73.4% and 88.7% of the observed rises in labor force participation and hours worked by the 1950s cohort. Additional policy experiments suggest that postponing retirement age have little effect on older workers, while eliminating the earnings test and reducing retirement benefits would further increase older age participation by 3.37 and 5.10 percent, respectively.
    Keywords: Social Security reform, retirement, labor force participation, health, older workers
    JEL: D15 H55 I12 J14 J22
    Date: 2021–08
  23. By: Ellen Bouchery; Monica Farid
    Abstract: In the context of the movement to value-based payment models that reimburse providers for a package of services rather than individual procedure codes, state Medicaid programs and substance use disorder (SUD) treatment facilities face the challenge of setting reimbursement rates that will adequately cover the cost of a range of SUD treatment services and client populations.
    Keywords: National Mental Health Services Survey (N-MHSS), telemedicine, mental health treatment, mental health professional shortage areas, Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA)
  24. By: Cécile Fraysse,; Saïda Baddou,; Stéphane Jarrijon.
    Abstract: La crise sanitaire de la COVID-19 a fortement pesé sur l’économie mondiale mais les mesures sanitaires nécessaires pour faire face à la pandémie ont touché différemment les pays et les secteurs économiques. Dans ce contexte, en France l’assurance vie a démontré sa résilience. La collecte brute tous supports a baissé par rapport à 2019 (98,9 Md€ en 2020, contre 105,8 Md€ en 2019), mais le mouvement est essentiellement concentré lors du premier confinement. Après un bref épisode d’augmentation des rachats au début de la crise sanitaire, ces derniers ont significativement reculé pendant la période du confinement avant de revenir à un niveau proche de leur moyenne de long terme. Le marché de l’assurance vie poursuit la transformation engagée dans l’environnement de taux bas, au profit des supports en unités de compte. La collecte nette sur l’assurance-vie a connu une baisse marquée, qui s’établit à -7,0 milliards d’euros en fin d’année après 7 années de croissance (+20,4 milliards d’euros en 2019) mais qui représente une faible part des encours sous gestion (0,3%). Les chiffres résultent d’une double tendance, les supports en euros ayant subi une décollecte nette de -30,9 milliards d’euros en 2020 tandis que les supports en unités de compte connaissaient une collecte nette positive de 23,9 milliards d’euros. L’épargne accumulée lors du confinement s’est orientée vers les dépôts bancaires qui ont augmenté de 149 milliards au cours de l’année, soit une hausse de 9,8% en un an (contre +5,5 % entre fin 2018 et fin 2019). Dans le même temps, les primes hebdomadaires sur les supports en euros ont baissé de façon importante (- 32 % en un an) tandis que les primes sur les supports en unités de compte ont significativement augmenté (+10 % en un an).
    Keywords: Assurance vie, épargne.
    JEL: G22
    Date: 2021
  25. By: Cyrille Lenoel; Garry Young
    Abstract: We set out a framework that can be used to evaluate policies intended to mitigate the economic effects of Covid-19. In our framework shocks that affect only certain sectors can spill over to other sectors because of input-output linkages and limited income insurance. We show that policies such as the furlough scheme can prevent the sharp rises in unemployment that might arise in the absence of the scheme, and illustrate how such policies can be evaluated using the framework.
    Keywords: Covid-19, recession, sectoral model, input-output
    JEL: E00 E12 E20 E23 E24 E30 E52 E60 E62
    Date: 2021–08

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