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on Insurance Economics |
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Issue of 2021‒01‒18
24 papers chosen by Soumitra K. Mallick Indian Institute of Social Welfare and Business Management |
| By: | Denise Hoffman; Priyanka Anand; John Jones; Serge Lukashanets |
| Abstract: | Work-related overpayments occur when the Social Security Administration (SSA) issues a monthly Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) benefit to which a beneficiary is not entitled because he or she engaged in substantial gainful activity (SGA). |
| Keywords: | overpayment, disability, employment, Social Security Disability Insurance |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:bc1e2ba7f8644c75a19020f0676b5947&r=all |
| By: | Rajashri Chakrabarti; Maxim L. Pinkovskiy |
| Abstract: | Our previous work documents that low-income and majority-minority areas were considerably more affected by COVID-19, as captured by markedly higher case and death rates. In a four-part series starting with this post, we seek to understand the reasons behind these income and racial disparities. Do disparities in health status translate into disparities in COVID-19 intensity? Does the health system play a role through health insurance and hospital capacity? Can disparities in COVID-19 intensity be explained by high-density, crowded environments? Does social distancing, pollution, or the age composition of the county matter? Does the prevalence of essential service jobs make a difference? This post will focus on the first two questions. The next three posts in this series will focus on the remaining questions. The posts will follow a similar structure. In each post, we will aim to understand whether the factors considered in that post affect overall COVID-19 intensity, whether the racial and income gaps can be further explained when we additionally include the factors in consideration in that post, and whether and to what extent the factors under consideration in that post independently affect racial and income gaps in COVID-19 intensity (without controlling for the factors considered in the other posts in this series). |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; race; income; health; insurance; comorbidity |
| JEL: | I14 J1 |
| Date: | 2021–01–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:89422&r=all |
| By: | World Bank Group |
| Keywords: | Agriculture - Agricultural Sector Economics Finance and Financial Sector Development - Finance and Development Finance and Financial Sector Development - Financial Literacy Finance and Financial Sector Development - Insurance & Risk Mitigation Health, Nutrition and Population - Health Insurance |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:33181&r=all |
| By: | Koning, Pierre (Leiden University); Muller, Paul (Free University Amsterdam); Prudon, Roger (Free University Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | While a large share of Disability Insurance recipients are expected to recover, outflow rates from temporary disability schemes are typically negligible. We estimate the disincentive effects of disability benefits on the response to a (mental) health improvement using administrative data on all Dutch disability benefit applicants. We compare those below the DI eligibility threshold with those above and find that disincentives significantly reduce work resumption after health improves. Approximately half of the response to recovery is offset by benefits. Structural labor supply model estimates suggest disincentive effects are substantially larger when the workers earnings capacity is fully restored. |
| Keywords: | disability insurance, mental health, labor supply, health shocks |
| JEL: | J08 I1 J22 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13971&r=all |
| By: | Benjamin Lerch (Department of Economics, Università della Svizzera italiana, Switzerland) |
| Abstract: | I analyze the impact of one of the leading automation technologies of the last decades – industrial robots – on the declining labor force participation in the US. Exploiting exogenous variation in the adoption of robots across local labor markets and over time, I find that, on average, one additional robot drives two workers out of the labor force. The massive increase in robot adoption between the mid-1990s and 2014 explains about 15 percent of the decline in labor force participation in these years. I next investigate the channels through which automation affects nonparticipation and find that robot adoption leads to rising university enrollment rates among the young, early retirement of older workers and a considerable fraction of middle-aged workers enrolling in disability insurance. |
| Keywords: | industrial robots, labor force participation, education, disability, early retirement |
| JEL: | I12 I26 J21 J26 |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lug:wpidep:2003&r=all |
| By: | Karim Barigou (SAF); Valeria Bignozzi; Andreas Tsanakas |
| Abstract: | Current approaches to fair valuation in insurance often follow a two-step approach, combining quadratic hedging with application of a risk measure on the residual liability, to obtain a cost-of-capital margin. In such approaches, the preferences represented by the regulatory risk measure are not reflected in the hedging process. We address this issue by an alternative two-step hedging procedure, based on generalised regression arguments, which leads to portfolios that are neutral with respect to a risk measure, such as Value-at-Risk or the expectile. First, a portfolio of traded assets aimed at replicating the liability is determined by local quadratic hedging. Second, the residual liability is hedged using an alternative objective function. The risk margin is then defined as the cost of the capital required to hedge the residual liability. In the case quantile regression is used in the second step, yearly solvency constraints are naturally satisfied; furthermore, the portfolio is a risk minimiser among all hedging portfolios that satisfy such constraints. We present a neural network algorithm for the valuation and hedging of insurance liabilities based on a backward iterations scheme. The algorithm is fairly general and easily applicable, as it only requires simulated paths of risk drivers. |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2012.04364&r=all |
| By: | Mary A. Burke; Riley Sullivan |
| Abstract: | Since the early 2000s Rhode Island has been among the states hardest hit by the opioid crisis. In response, the state has made it a priority to expand access to medication-assisted treatment (MAT) for opioid use disorder (OUD), which refers to the use of the FDA-approved medications methadone, buprenorphine, and/or naltrexone in conjunction with behavioral therapy. MAT is strongly supported by scientific evidence and endorsed by US public health officials and yet fails to reach many OUD patients. Using administrative data covering medical treatments and selected health outcomes for more than three-quarters of the Rhode Islanders covered by health insurance from mid-2011 through mid-2019, this report considers MAT’s efficacy in preventing opioid overdoses in Rhode Island and sheds light on the barriers to receiving MAT. The authors find evidence that MAT, as practiced in Rhode Island, appears to reduce the risk of opioid overdose: Among patients who had an initial (nonfatal) overdose, those who had received MAT in the preceding three months were less likely to experience a second overdose. In addition, federal policies that allowed a broader set of health-care providers to prescribe buprenorphine for OUD and enabled each prescriber to treat more patients with that drug are shown to have had some success in expanding the set of patients receiving MAT in Rhode Island. Unfortunately, we observe significant disparities in access to MAT across different groups within Rhode Island. Among individuals diagnosed with opioid dependence, those living in places with elevated poverty rates are less likely to receive buprenorphine, but they are also somewhat more likely to receive methadone. Because a treatment regimen involving methadone is much less convenient for the patient compared with one involving buprenorphine, ideally patients should have similar access to both drugs. Having Medicaid insurance as opposed to some other form of insurance is associated with a much greater chance of receiving methadone treatment, a finding that supports policies that would incentivize the expansion of Medicaid in states that have not yet done so. Women are somewhat less likely than men to receive either methadone or buprenorphine. This research demonstrates that recent federal policies helped to increase the number of Rhode Islanders who were prescribed buprenorphine for OUD. Raising patient-number limits enabled select prescribers to serve more patients and expand the total patient pool; however, more people could be helped if more prescribers took full advantage of their prescribing limits. This research and similar findings from other states reveal that the typical buprenorphine prescriber has a caseload that is well below the maximum number of patients they could treat. A separate policy that enabled mid-level practitioners (such as physician assistants) to train to prescribe buprenorphine was also found to draw in new patients, particularly those in high-poverty Zip codes. The research also underscores the urgency of helping more OUD patients receive methadone and/or buprenorphine treatment quickly following an overdose (in hospitals, for example) and to maintain that treatment over time for a sufficient duration. Some additional policies that could promote greater access to MAT include allowing pharmacists to prescribe buprenorphine, relaxing restrictions on the use of telehealth for obtaining buprenorphine prescriptions, and revisiting the rules about allowing take-home doses of methadone. Additional research is required on these interventions before specific recommendations can be made, but consideration of further policy adjustments is critically important given the ongoing scourge of opioid abuse and the proven ability of MAT to help those suffering from opioid use disorder. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic there has in fact been a temporary loosening of policies related to MAT in order to minimize patients’ exposure to the virus while helping them to get on or stay on medications, thus offering an opportunity to evaluate the efficacy and safety of the revised measures. |
| Keywords: | NEPPC; opiods; public health; Rhode Island; New England; COVID-19 |
| Date: | 2020–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbcr:89379&r=all |
| By: | Kokas, Deeksha (World Bank); Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys (World Bank); El Lahga, Abdel Rahmen (University of Tunis); Mendiratta, Vibhuti (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | COVID-19 is likely to have a large impact on the welfare of Tunisian households. First, some individuals might be more vulnerable to contracting the disease because their living conditions or jobs make them more susceptible to meeting others or practicing social distancing. Lack of adequate access to health insurance, overcrowded living conditions, and low access to water at home are reasons that make the Tunisian poor more susceptible to getting infected or not being able to seek health care in the event that they contract COVID-19. In addition, the elderly in the poorest households could be more susceptible to COVID-19 due to higher prevalence of intergenerational households among the poor. Second, many sectors of the labor market have experienced an economic slowdown, and those employed in these sectors are likely to experience disproportionate effects. Combining the labor shock and price shock simultaneously, the simulations in this paper show an increase in poverty of 7.3 percentage points under a more optimistic scenario and 11.9 percentage points under the pessimistic scenario, and individuals in sectors such as tourism and construction are expected to fall into poverty due to COVID-19. The paper estimates that the government's compensatory measures targeted toward the hardest hit are expected to mitigate the increase in poverty. Specifically, the increase in poverty will be 6.5 percentage points under the optimistic scenario if mitigation measures are in place vis-à-vis in their absence, when the increase in poverty is 7.3 percentage points. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, Tunisia, labor income, consumption |
| JEL: | J16 J21 O54 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13978&r=all |
| By: | Pierre-Emmanuel Thérond (SAF - Laboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon, SeaBird); Victor Froment (SeaBird) |
| Abstract: | On September 30, EFRAG published its Draft Endorsement Advice on IFRS 17 Insurance contracts. Comments are requested by 29 january 2021. It concluded on a consensus basis that IFRS 17 meets the various criteria for endorsement, with the notable exception of the requirement to apply annual cohorts to intergenerationally-mutualised and cash-flow matched contracts. In this paper, we focus on this particular issue and show how annual cohorts fail to give a pertinent picture of participating life insurance business, as practiced in many continental European countries. |
| Keywords: | IFRS17,insurance,financial reporting,accounting |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02989360&r=all |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Environment - Natural Disasters Finance and Financial Sector Development - Insurance & Risk Mitigation Urban Development - Hazard Risk Management |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:33885&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This technical note on Crisis Management, Resolution, and Safety Nets on Singapore highlights that the resolution tools are well designed, with the exception of bail-in powers; however, steps are still needed to operationalize the resolution plans. The note reviews current practices, considering international best practice principles as outlined in the Financial Stability Board’s Key Attributes for Effective Resolution of Financial Institutions and the International Association of Deposit Insurers’ Core Principles Effective Deposit Insurance Systems. Monetary Authority of Singapore currently develops resolution plans for Domestic Systemically Important Bank only. The resolution plans for each institution must be reviewed for both internal consistency and cross-institutional consistency. Some extension of resolution planning should be considered. The funding arrangements for resolution aim at limiting public sector exposure to loss. Losses will be first borne by equity holders and unsecured subordinated creditors. When additional funds are required, the deposit insurance fund, built by ex-ante premiums from members, can be used to support the resolution of members on an equivalent cost basis. |
| Keywords: | Bank resolution framework;Crisis resolution;Banking;Deposit insurance;Crisis management;ISCR,CR,resolution plan,bank resolution,resolution strategy,central bank,Resolution authority,resolution tool |
| Date: | 2019–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2019/226&r=all |
| By: | World Bank Group |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Financial Regulation & Supervision Finance and Financial Sector Development - Insurance & Risk Mitigation Law and Development - Financial Law Law and Development - Insurance Law |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:33173&r=all |
| By: | Mariacristina De Nardi; Giulio Fella; Gonzalo Paz-Pardo |
| Abstract: | The extent to which households can self-insure and the government can help them to do so depends on the wage risk that they face and their family structure. We study wage risk in the UK and show that the persistence and riskiness of wages depends on one's age and position in the wage distribution. We also calibrate a model of couples and singles with two alternative processes for wages: a canonical one and a flexible one that allows for the much richer dynamics that we document in the data. We use our model to show that allowing for rich wage dynamics is important to properly evaluate the effects of benefit reform: relative to the richer process, the canonical process underestimates wage persistence for women and generates a more important role for in-work benefits relative to income support. The optimal benefit configuration under the richer wage process, instead, is similar to that in place in the benchmark UK economy before the Universal Credit reform. The Universal Credit reform generates additional welfare gains by introducing an income disregard for families with children. While families with children are better off, households without children, and particularly single women, are worse off. |
| JEL: | D1 D12 D14 D15 H11 H2 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28294&r=all |
| By: | Charlotte Bilo (IPC-IG); Anna Carolina Machado (IPC-IG); Fabianna Bacil (IPC-IG) |
| Abstract: | Over the last two years, Sudan has undergone significative changes in its internal political configuration. However, the implementation of State-provided social protection programmes is not entirely new in the country, which already had a tradition in providing income, consumption goods and other basic services to poor and marginalised people. This report compiles and details information about these schemes and aims to contribute to the literature by providing evidence on the state of social assistance and social insurance in Sudan by late 2019. The document is divided into two parts: the first provides a quick overview of the main institutions in charge of social protection as well as the key policy and legal instruments that guide and regulate the country's system, and the second offers a detailed description of Sudan' main social protection programmes, including key information such as institutional set-up, benefits provided, coverage, targeting mechanisms used to identify beneficiaries, financing structure, administrative databases and monitoring and evaluation mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | social protection mapping; Sudan; social; assistance; coverage; targeting mechanisms |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:cstudy:53&r=all |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Conflict and Development - Disaster Management Environment - Climate Change Impacts Environment - Natural Disasters Finance and Financial Sector Development - Insurance & Risk Mitigation Water Resources - Drought Management Water Resources - Flood Control Public Sector Development - Public Financial Management |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:33141&r=all |
| By: | David M. Cutler; Leemore Dafny; David C. Grabowski; Steven Lee; Christopher Ody |
| Abstract: | The landscape of the U.S. healthcare industry is changing dramatically as healthcare providers expand both within and across markets. While federal antitrust agencies have mounted several challenges to same-market combinations, they have not challenged any non-horizontal affiliations – including vertical integration of providers along the value chain of production. The Clayton Act prohibits combinations that “substantially lessen” competition; few empirical studies have focused on whether this is the source of harm from vertical combinations. We examine whether hospitals that are vertically integrated with skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) lessen competition among SNFs by foreclosing rival SNFs from access to the most lucrative referrals. Exploiting a plausibly exogenous shock to Medicare reimbursement for SNFs, we find that a 1 percent increase in a patient’s expected profitability to a SNF increases the probability that a hospital self-refers that patient (i.e., to a co-owned SNF) by 2.5 percent. We find no evidence that increased self-referrals improve patient outcomes or change post-discharge Medicare spending. Additional analyses show that when integrated SNFs are divested by their parent hospitals, independent rivals are less likely to exit. Together, the results suggest vertical integration in this setting may reduce downstream competition without offsetting benefits to patients or payers. |
| JEL: | I18 L22 L40 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28305&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) highlights that the economy has performed well in recent years, with relatively high growth and low inflation. Fiscal and current account balances have recorded large surpluses since 2017, owing to the authorities’ decision to save revenue windfalls. Nonetheless, the FSM faces significant medium-term uncertainty as various economic supports under the Compact Agreement with the United States are set to expire in 2023. Unless they are renewed, the FSM is expected to lose access to Compact grants, giving rise to a fiscal cliff in 2023; banking sector oversight by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; and post-disaster rehabilitation assistance. The country is highly vulnerable to climate change, while private sector activity remains anaemic. It is recommended to improve resilience to climate change by strengthening capacity to implement adaptation projects. Over the medium term, disaster risks should be mitigated by using disaster insurance and disaster-contingent foreign financing. |
| Keywords: | Public debt;Extra-budgetary funds;External debt;Revenue administration;Natural disasters;ISCR,CR,Micronesia,FSM authorities,IMF-World Bank Climate Change Policy Assessment,debt |
| Date: | 2019–09–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2019/288&r=all |
| By: | Sarah Auster; Jeremy Kettering; Asen Kochov |
| Abstract: | We consider a dynamic economy in which agents are initially unaware of some risks. As awareness of these risks emerges, markets re-open so agents can re-optimize and purchase insurance. An inefficiency may nonetheless arise as the cost of insurance is not spread over time. This ``savings mistake" does not arise in two benchmark cases. In those, the ability to re-trade fully negates the initial misperception of risks. We also demonstrate the possibility of unexpected default. This arises when agents borrow "too much" and once perceptions change, there is no equilibrium price at which they can refinance their debt. |
| Keywords: | coarse perceptions, unforeseen risks, sequential trading, default |
| JEL: | D50 D81 D83 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2020_254&r=all |
| By: | Mario Gruszczynski; Natalie Graves; Sonya Streeter |
| Abstract: | This case study describes Nebraska Health Network’s (NHN) data management system to more efficiently respond to the quality reporting requirements of the Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP) and to facilitate the implementation of performance improvement strategies. NHN’s experience is informative not only for new ACOs that are forming their analytic approach but also for experienced ACOs that are using data to support strategic initiatives. |
| Keywords: | MSSP, ACO Learning System, Data, Provider Engagement, Quality Improvement |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:e1e4ae1af8cd4d5c8ce51985ab80f9ce&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This Financial System Stability Assessment paper on France provides summary of an assessment of the financial system. Dominated by internationally active financial conglomerates, the French financial system has made important progress since the last financial stability assessment program (FSAP). In order to address a build-up of systemic risks, the authorities have proactively used macroprudential measures and public communication. The government is pursuing a strategy to prepare Paris as a key financial hub, including by promoting crypto-assets, fintech, green finance, and market entry. Banking and insurance business lines, and the corporate sector, carry important financial vulnerabilities that need close attention. The FSAP thus has recommended augmenting policy tools to contain vulnerabilities and continue to act pre-emptively if systemic risks intensify. In order to mitigate intensification of corporate—and potentially household—vulnerabilities, the FSAP proposed: active engagement with the European Central Bank on the possible use of bank-specific measures; considering fiscal measures to incentivize corporates to finance through equity rather than debt; and a sectoral systemic risk buffer. |
| Keywords: | Banking;Insurance companies;Liquidity requirements;Financial statements;Stress testing;ISCR,CR,asset,return on equity,bank |
| Date: | 2019–07–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2019/241&r=all |
| By: | Nicole B\"auerle; Alexander Glauner |
| Abstract: | We study the minimization of a spectral risk measure of the total discounted cost generated by a Markov Decision Process (MDP) over a finite or infinite planning horizon. The MDP is assumed to have Borel state and action spaces and the cost function may be unbounded above. The optimization problem is split into two minimization problems using an infimum representation for spectral risk measures. We show that the inner minimization problem can be solved as an ordinary MDP on an extended state space and give sufficient conditions under which an optimal policy exists. Regarding the infinite dimensional outer minimization problem, we prove the existence of a solution and derive an algorithm for its numerical approximation. Our results include the findings in B\"auerle and Ott (2011) in the special case that the risk measure is Expected Shortfall. As an application, we present a dynamic extension of the classical static optimal reinsurance problem, where an insurance company minimizes its cost of capital. |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2012.04521&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This technical note Financial Stability Analysis and Stress Testing on Singapore contributes to the assessment of the stability and soundness of the financial sector with a comprehensive set of risk analyses. The work combines an examination of key risk indicators with detailed stress tests, which simulate the health of banks, insurers, nonfinancial corporates and households under severe yet plausible (counterfactual) adverse scenarios. Scenarios include global financial market turmoil, a major slowdown of economic activity in China, cyber-attacks and extreme flooding. The analyses include simulations of contagion within the international banking network, within the domestic banking system and between different types of financial institutions in the financial system. The stress tests reveal that the financial system is broadly resilient to severe adverse shocks; however, foreign exchange liquidity is a key vulnerability. The analyses suggest that Monetary Authority of Singapore should continue strengthening its surveillance by closing data gaps and developing its analytical tools. Further data collection on domestic interlinkages, household mortgage debt at the borrower level, insurers’ balance sheets would enhance surveillance. |
| Keywords: | Stress testing;Banking;Domestic systemically important banks;Insurance companies;Capital adequacy requirements;ISCR,CR,U.S. dollar,financial market,banking group,financial system,sensitivity analysis,solvency stress tests |
| Date: | 2019–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2019/228&r=all |
| By: | ; Rajashri Chakrabarti; Maxim L. Pinkovskiy |
| Abstract: | This is the fourth and final post in this series aimed at understanding the gap in COVID-19 intensity by race and by income. The previous three posts focused on the role of mediating variables—such as uninsurance rates, comorbidities, and health resource in the first post; public transportation, and home crowding in the second; and social distancing, pollution, and age composition in the third—in explaining the racial and income gap in the incidence of COVID-19. In this post, we now investigate the role of employment in essential services in explaining this gap. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; race; heterogeneity; essential workers |
| JEL: | I14 |
| Date: | 2021–01–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:89426&r=all |
| By: | Fabianna Bacil (IPC-IG) |
| Abstract: | The implementation of nationally appropriate social protection systems for all has emerged as one of the key targets of SDG 1, calling for all countries to report on the coverage of social protection programmes. Most approaches to measure social protection coverage take a participation approach, meaning who participates (either directly or indirectly) in a social protection programme. However, they do not tell much about the extent to which peoples specific life cycle risks are covered. This toolkit proposes an alternative approach to measuring social protection coverage, analysing the extent to which peoples risks are covered, ranging from unprotected to protected. |
| Keywords: | social protection; coverage; life cycle risks; SDG 1.3 |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:opager:458&r=all |