nep-ias New Economics Papers
on Insurance Economics
Issue of 2020‒12‒07
twelve papers chosen by
Soumitra K. Mallick
Indian Institute of Social Welfare and Business Management

  1. The Affordable Care Act and the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis By Rajashri Chakrabarti; Lindsay Meyerson; William Nober; Maxim L. Pinkovskiy
  2. Asymmetric Information, Strategic Transfers, and the Design of Long-Term Care Policies By Chiara Canta; Helmuth Cremer
  3. Old age or dependence. Which social insurance? By Nishimura, Yukihiro; Pestieau, Pierre
  4. Risk Preferences and Training Investments By Marco Caliendo; Deborah A. Cobb-Clark; Cosima Obst; Arne Uhlendorff
  5. Catastrophe Insurance Programs for Public Assets By World Bank
  6. Screening for breakthroughs By Gregorio Curello; Ludvig Sinander
  7. Age-related taxation of bequests in the presence of a dependency risk By Leroux, Marie-Louise; Pestieau, Pierre
  8. OBAMACARE : Enjeux économiques et constitutionnels By Marcel Boyer; Molivann Panot
  9. Keep Working and Spend Less? Collective Childcare and Parental Earnings in France By Pierre Pora
  10. Does Obamacare Care? A Fuzzy Difference-in-Discontinuities Approach By Guy Tchuente; Hector Galindo-Silva; Nibene Habib Some
  11. How to Operationalize IMF Engagement on Social Spending during and in the aftermath of the COVID-19 Crisis By Irene Yackovlev; Zuzana Murgasova; Fei Liu; Gohar Minasyan; Ke Wang
  12. Urban Air Pollution and Sick Leaves: Evidence From Social Security Data By Felix Holub; Laura Hospido; Ulrich J. Wagner

  1. By: Rajashri Chakrabarti; Lindsay Meyerson; William Nober; Maxim L. Pinkovskiy
    Abstract: Did Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act affect the course of the COVID-19 pandemic? We answer this question using a regression discontinuity design for counties near the borders of states that expanded Medicaid with states that did not. Relevant covariates change continuously across the Medicaid expansion frontier. We find that 1) health insurance changes discontinuously at the frontier, 2) COVID-19 cases do not change discontinuously at the frontier but the precision of this estimate is low, 3) COVID-19 deaths do not change discontinuously at the frontier and the confidence intervals exclude large declines in deaths in Medicaid expansion areas, 4) smart thermometer readings of fever rates from Kinsa, Inc. do not change discontinuously at the frontier, and 5) COVID-19-related doctor visits discontinuously increase in Medicaid expansion areas.
    Keywords: Affordable Care Act; COVID-19; Medicaid; regression discontinuity
    JEL: C21 I13 I18
    Date: 2020–11–01
  2. By: Chiara Canta; Helmuth Cremer
    Abstract: We study the design of social long-term care (LTC) insurance when informal care is exchange-based. Parents do not observe their children's cost of providing care, which is continuously distributed over some interval. They choose a rule specifying transfers that are conditional on the level of informal care. Social LTC insurance is designed to maximize a weighted sum of parents' and children's utility. The optimal uniform public LTC insurance can fully cover the risk of dependence but parents continue to bear the risk of having children with a high cost of providing care. A nonlinear policy conditioning LTC benefits on transfers provides full insurance even for this risk. Informal care increases with the children's welfare weight. Our theoretical analysis is completed by numerical solutions based on a calibrated example. In the uniform case, public care should represent up to 40% of total care but its share decreases to about 30% as the weight of children increases. In the nonlinear case, public care increases with the children's cost of providing care at a faster rate when children's weight in social welfare is higher. It represents 100% of total care for the families with high-cost children.
    Keywords: long-term care, informal care, strategic bequests, asymmetric information
    JEL: H20 H50
    Date: 2020
  3. By: Nishimura, Yukihiro; Pestieau, Pierre (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/CORE, Belgium)
    Abstract: We consider a society where individuals differ according to their pro- ductivity and their risk of mortality and dependency. We show that ac- cording to the most reasonable estimates of correlations among these three characteristics, if one had to choose between a public pension system and a long-term care social insurance, the latter should be chosen by a utili- tarian social planner. With a Rawlsian planner, the balance between the two schemes does depend on the comparison between the ratio of the sur- vival probability to the dependence risk of the poor with its population average.
    Keywords: long term care, pension, mortality risk, optimal taxation, liquidity constraints
    JEL: H2 H5
    Date: 2020–10–06
  4. By: Marco Caliendo; Deborah A. Cobb-Clark; Cosima Obst; Arne Uhlendorff
    Abstract: We analyze workers’ risk preferences and training investments. Our conceptual framework differentiates between the investment risk and insurance mechanisms underpin-ning training decisions. Investment risk leads risk-averse workers to train less; they undertake more training if it insures them against future losses. We use the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) to demonstrate that risk affinity is associated with more training, implying that, on average, investment risks dominate the insurance benefits of training. Crucially, this relationship is evident only for general training; there is no relationship between risk attitudes and specific training. Thus, as expected, risk preferences matter more when skills are transferable – and workers have a vested interest in training outcomes – than when they are not. Finally, we provide evidence that the insurance benefits of training are concentrated among workers with uncertain employment relationships or limited access to public insurance schemes.
    Keywords: Human Capital Investment, Work-related Training, Risk Preferences
    JEL: J24 C23 D81
    Date: 2020
  5. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Finance and Financial Sector Development - Insurance & Risk Mitigation Urban Development - Hazard Risk Management Public Sector Development - Public Financial Management
    Date: 2020–08
  6. By: Gregorio Curello; Ludvig Sinander
    Abstract: An agent privately observes a technological breakthrough that expands utility possibilities, and must be incentivised to disclose it. The principal controls the agent's utility over time. Optimal mechanisms keep the agent only just willing to disclose promptly. In an important case, a deadline mechanism is optimal: absent disclosure, the agent enjoys an efficient utility before a deadline, and an inefficiently low utility afterwards. In general, optimal mechanisms feature a (possibly gradual) transition from the former to the latter. Even if monetary transfers are permitted, they may not be used. We apply our results to the design of unemployment insurance schemes.
    Date: 2020–11
  7. By: Leroux, Marie-Louise (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/CORE, Belgium); Pestieau, Pierre (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/CORE, Belgium)
    Abstract: This paper studies the design of the optimal linear taxation of bequests when individuals differ in wage as well as in their risks of both mortality and old-age dependance. We assume that the government cannot distinguish between bequests motives, that is whether bequests resulted from precautionary reasons or from pure joy of giving reasons. Instead, we assume that it only observes the timing of bequests, that is whether they are made early in life or late in life. We show that, if the government is utilitarian, whether the taxation of early bequests should be given priority over the taxation of late bequests depends on the magnitude of insurance and redistributive concerns. While the efficiency concern unambiguously recom- mends taxation of early bequests, redistributive concerns yield ambiguous results. This indeterminacy comes from the fact that, in case of late death, the government cannot ob- serve the health status of the deceased. Whether the taxation of early bequests should be given priority depends on the specific relationships between wages and both risks of early death and of old-age dependence, as well as on the concavity of the joy of giving utility function. If the government is Rawlsian, it is optimal to tax early bequests if the survival chances of the poorest agents are very low. If they survive, but their chances to remain autonomous are very low, it is then optimal to tax early bequests if the poorest agents con- tribute relatively less to the taxation of early bequests than to the taxation of late bequests or if the joy of giving utility is extremely concave.
    Keywords: Bequest taxation; Long term care; Utilitarianism; Rawlsian welfare criterion; Old-age dependency
    JEL: H21 H23 I14
    Date: 2020–10–01
  8. By: Marcel Boyer; Molivann Panot
    Abstract: La table des matières tient lieu de résumé.
    Keywords: , Obamacare,Mandat individuel,Sélection adverse,Medicare,Medicaid,Constitution,Cour suprême,Sebelius,Statu quo,Habitudes,Tabous
    Date: 2020–11–25
  9. By: Pierre Pora
    Abstract: I leverage the staggered expansion of subsidized childcare facilities across municipalities in response to a succession of national plans to investigate the effect of collective childcare on parents' labor outcomes and childcare choices in France between 2007 and 2015. These plans did not lead to any substantial change in parents' labor outcomes or in paid parental leave take-up. Instead, these collective childcare expansions crowded out more costly formal childcare solutions, such as childminders or at-home childcare. These crowding-out effects highlight a downside of family policy strategies that foster the coexistence of multiple childcare arrangements.
    Keywords: Labor supply, childcare, event-study, parental leave
    JEL: J13 J16 J18 J22
    Date: 2020
  10. By: Guy Tchuente; Hector Galindo-Silva; Nibene Habib Some
    Abstract: This paper explores the use of a fuzzy regression discontinuity design where multiple treatments are applied at the threshold. The identification results show that, under the very strong assumption that the change in the probability of treatment at the cutoff is equal across treatments, a difference-in-discontinuities estimator identifies the treatment effect of interest. The point estimates of the treatment effect using a simple fuzzy difference-in-discontinuities design are biased if the change in the probability of a treatment applying at the cutoff differs across treatments. Modifications of the fuzzy difference-in-discontinuities approach that rely on milder assumptions are also proposed. Our results suggest caution is needed when applying before-and-after methods in the presence of fuzzy discontinuities. Using data from the National Health Interview Survey, we apply this new identifcation strategy to evaluate the causal effect of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on older. Americans' health care access and utilization. Our results suggest that the ACA has (1) led to a 5% increase in the hospitalization rate of elderly Americans, (2) increased the probability of delaying care for cost reasons by 3.6%, and (3) exacerbated cost-related barriers to follow-up care and continuity of care: 7.0% more elderly individuals could not afford prescriptions, 7.2% more could not see a specialist, and 5.5% more could not afford a follow-up visit. Our results can be explained by an increase in the demand for health services without a corresponding adjustment in supply following the implementation of the ACA.
    Keywords: Fuzzy Difference-in-Discontinuities, Identification, Regression Discontinuity Design, Affordable Care Act
    JEL: C13 I12 I13 I18
    Date: 2020–11
  11. By: Irene Yackovlev; Zuzana Murgasova; Fei Liu; Gohar Minasyan; Ke Wang
    Abstract: How to Operationalize IMF Engagement on Social Spending during and in the aftermath of the COVID-19 Crisis
    Keywords: COVID-19 ;Health care spending;Health care;Fiscal sustainability;Social assistance spending;FADHTN,HTN,spending,financing,COVID,country
    Date: 2020–09–14
  12. By: Felix Holub; Laura Hospido; Ulrich J. Wagner
    Abstract: We estimate the causal impact of air pollution on the incidence of sick leaves in a representative panel of employees affiliated to the Spanish social security system. Using over 100 million worker-by-week observations from the period 2005-2014, we estimate the relationship between the share of days an individual is on sick leave in a given week and exposure to particulate matter (PM10) at the place of residence, controlling for weather, individual effects, and a wide range of time-by-location controls. We exploit quasi-experimental variation in PM10 that is due to Sahara dust advection in order to instrument for local PM10 concentrations. We estimate that the causal effect of PM10 on sick leaves is positive and varies with respect to worker and job characteristics. The effect is stronger for workers with pre-existing medical conditions, and weaker for workers with low job security. Our estimates are instrumental for quantifying air pollution damages due to changes in labor supply. We estimate that improved ambient air quality in urban Spain between 2005 and 2014 saved at least €503 million in foregone production by reducing worker absence by more than 5.55 million days.
    Keywords: air pollution, health, sickness insurance, labor supply
    JEL: I12 I13 Q51 Q53
    Date: 2020–11

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