|
on International Activities of Firms |
| By: | Harald Fadinger; Lei Li; Sophia Praetorius; Jan Schymik |
| Abstract: | We study how the U.S.–China trade war affected manufacturing activity in third countries using a novel plant-level dataset covering millions of establishments in 50 major economies, including affiliates of more than 200, 000 multinational enterprises (MNEs). Combining establishment-level data with detailed tariff information, we estimate the effects of U.S. and Chinese punitive bilateral output and input tariffs on sales, employment, and establishments across countries, industries, and stages of production. We find that third-country effects of the trade war are highly heterogeneous and largely offsetting, yielding moderately negative net effects overall. Most of the adjustment is driven by multinational enterprises reallocating activity across affiliate networks, while domestic firms respond much less. |
| Keywords: | global value chains, firm location choice, multinational enterprise, trade policy, tariffs, tariff elasticity, upstreamness, downstreamness, output tariffs, input tariffs, third-country effects of trade policy |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F23 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12942 |
| By: | Makoto HASEGAWA; Takafumi SUZUKI |
| Abstract: | Using Japanese customs data on export transactions from 2014 to 2021, we examine how intra- rm exports to the U.S. responded to the large corporate tax cut enacted under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA). We observe exports at the rm- product-consignee-year level and identify whether the consignee is a U.S. subsidiary of the exporter. We nd that related-party export prices did not decline relative to unrelated-party export prices following the TCJA, providing no evidence of a pro t- shifting response through transfer pricing. In contrast, export quantities and values in related-party transactions increased in the post-TCJA period relative to those in unrelated-party transactions, with particularly strong responses for intermediate goods. These ndings suggest that the response of intra- rm exports to the TCJA re ected real adjustment rather than pro t-shifting incentives. |
| Keywords: | Intra- rm trade; Transfer pricing; Pro t shifting; Multinational rms; In- ternational taxation |
| JEL: | H25 H26 F23 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kue:epaper:e-26-001 |
| By: | Bergeaud, Antonin; Aghion, Philippe; Gigout-Magiorani, Timothée; Lequien, Matthieu; Melitz, Marc J |
| Abstract: | We examine the effect of entry by French firms into a new export market on the dynamics of their patents’ citations received from that destination. Applying a difference-in-differences identification strategy with a staggered treatment design, we show that: (i) entering a new foreign market has a significant impact on the long-run flow of citations; (ii) the impact is mostly driven by the extensive margin; (iii) inventors in destination countries patent mostly in products that do not directly compete with those of the exporting firm; (iv) the spillover intensity decreases with the technological distance between the exporting firm and the destination. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19260 |
| By: | Adrian R. Mendoza (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | Using a large firm-level dataset assembled from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys and COVID-19 Follow-up Surveys for 23 countries, this study examined the survival, robustness, and resilience of exporters amidst the economic hibernation induced by COVID-19 lockdowns. While the stylized facts suggest that “positive†(“negative†) technology-intensive emergency innovations were positively (negatively) related with exporting, the Weibull and negative binomial regressions show that most of these strategic responses were either insignificant or negatively related with the ability of exporters to weather and recover from COVID-19 disruptions. With a limited window for learning, this implies that the documented emergency innovations were likely signs of distress and mainly used by exporters as last-ditch efforts to avoid exit. Another explanation is that the pandemic shocks crowded out the supposed positive effects of these emergency responses, with stringency and idiosyncratic negative supply and demand shocks significantly accelerating the failure time of exporters; while the duration of disruptions (proxied by vaccine delay) partly prolonged the expected speed of recovery. In the face of wild card COVID-19 shocks, superior pre-pandemic capabilities, especially labor productivity, mattered more for the survival, endurance, and recovery of exporters. Importing also allowed exporters to ease local supply chain constraints, indicating that firms with stronger international linkages had lower exit probabilities despite their greater exposure to global shocks. The preceding results favor the self-selection argument, while positive learning effects may have been muted by fast evolving pandemic shocks. This highlights the importance of early investment in capabilities to future-proof firms against wild card crises. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; exporters; survival; robustness; resilience; wild card |
| JEL: | D22 D24 F10 L21 L25 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202506 |
| By: | David Atkin; Benjamin Faber |
| Abstract: | In recent decades, economists studying international trade have gained access to an unprecedented volume and variety of data. These data have provided new insights and a more granular understanding of the mechanics of trade. Analyzing a large corpus of papers, we document that the nature of research has also shifted. Previously, the typical trade paper was either purely theoretical or an empirical paper testing theoretical predictions. More recently, scholarship has shifted toward a more integrated approach, particularly quantitative modeling. This development is surprising. We might have expected the data revolution (and contemporaneous credibility revolution) to increase the share of primarily empirical papers—although the markers of these revolutions are clearly evident in the rise of causal inference within empirical work. This article reviews these developments, assessing the strengths and limitations of different modes of inquiry, and plotting a path forward to harness the growing richness of data within the field. |
| JEL: | F10 F60 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35657 |