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on International Activities of Firms |
| By: | Emek Basker; Fariha Kamal |
| Abstract: | National-security restrictions on exports constrain exporters' market access, but empirical evidence on their domestic costs is limited. We leverage data on export transactions that includes the product classifications used to administer U.S. export controls to document a doubling in the share of U.S. exports subject to controls between 2010 and 2024 and a skewed firm-size distribution among firms that export controlled products. We then exploit the 2014 U.S. restriction on exports to Russia as a natural experiment to examine the impact of export controls on firm-level outcomes. These controls not only reduced U.S. firms' probability of exporting targeted goods to Russia but also had indirect effects: they reduced affected firms' exports of other products and to other destinations and lowered affected firms' average payroll. Our findings imply that the domestic costs of export controls extend beyond direct restrictions. |
| Keywords: | Sanctions, Export Controls, U.S.-Russia Trade |
| JEL: | F51 F13 F14 F23 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:26-50 |
| By: | Philipp Barteska; Oliver Kim; Nathan Lane; Seung Joo Lee |
| Abstract: | How did geopolitics shape East Asia's economic development? We find that U.S. military procurement during the Vietnam War — a shock which peaked at nearly 3% of South Korean GDP, rivaling the Marshall Plan — catalyzed Korea's export-led industrialization. We construct a new firm-level dataset that matches Korean export records with U.S. procurement contracts awarded between 1965 and 1974 to estimate the causal impact of winning a contract on export performance. A firm winning its first contract raises its likelihood of exporting by 14.7 percentage points and its export value by 40%. Treated firms are more likely to expand into third-country markets and export manufacturing products — and these gains are unlikely to come from business stealing. Finally, we find that U.S. procurement and domestic industrial policy were likely complementary. Our findings reveal a neglected channel through which Cold War geopolitics shaped the East Asian economic miracle. |
| Keywords: | export promotion, firm development, East Asian Miracle, procurement, geoeconomics |
| JEL: | F14 F35 O14 H56 N45 O25 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12926 |
| By: | Ko Adachi (Bank of Japan); Kosuke Aoki (Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo); Yoshiyuki Kurachi (Bank of Japan); Taiki Ono (Bank of Japan); Akitoshi Toyoda (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically analyzes the linkages of firm spending behavior along supply chains, with a focus on capital investment and wage-setting, using production network data from Japan's manufacturing sector. The analysis yields the following findings. First, there is evidence of bonus linkages within supply chains, originating from temporary foreign demand shocks. Second, more broadly, the capital investment of firms can be influenced by downstream investment activity in supply chains, whether domestically or internationally. In addition, the determination of regular wages within a firm appears to be influenced by the wage rates set by focal firms within the same supply chains. These results underscore the importance of analyzing firm behavior while taking into account the multilayered supply chain structure centered around large manufacturing firms in order to understand Japan's economic dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Supply Chain; Firm-to-Firm Transaction Data; Firm Behavior; Linkages |
| JEL: | D22 E22 J31 L14 |
| Date: | 2026–08–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp26e14 |
| By: | Jones, Kyle; Palmou, Christina |
| Abstract: | Trade matters. There is indisputable evidence across countries that firms that participate in international markets are more productive. But literature is less clear as to why. What are the mechanisms driving the trade-productivity premia observed in the data? To investigate this, we use an innovative dataset originally developed by Wales et al. (2018), which combines administrative data on trade in goods with survey data on firm labour productivity. We extend this dataset to include trade in services and updated trade in goods information between 2017 and 2022. This dataset, covering the 2005 to 2022 period, allows us to build the most comprehensive picture of British traders and to, not only estimate the most up-to-date relationship between trade and productivity but also to disentangle the role of self-selection of productive firms into exporting, from other causal impacts of trade on productivity via, for instance, technological upgrading or learning-by-doing. |
| Keywords: | trade; productivity; administrative data; learning-by-exporting |
| JEL: | F1 O3 O4 |
| Date: | 2025–08–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eoe:escoed:escoe-dp-2025-10 |