|
on International Activities of Firms |
| By: | Alexander Bertermann (ifo Institute, University of Munich); Wolfgang Dauth (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), University of Bamberg); Jens Suedekum (DICE, Heinrich-Heine-Universität Düsseldorf); Ludger Woessmann (University of Munich, ifo Institute) |
| Abstract: | How do firms and workers adjust to trade and technology shocks? We analyze two mechanisms that have received little attention: training that upgrades skills and early retirement that shifts adjustment costs to public pension systems. We combine novel data on training participation and early retirement in German local labor markets with established measures of exposure to trade competition and robot adoption. Results indicate that negative trade shocks reduce training—particularly in manufacturing—while robot exposure increases training—particularly in indirectly affected services. Both shocks raise early retirement among manufacturing workers. Structural change thus induces both productivity-enhancing and productivity-reducing responses, challenging simple narratives of labor market adaptation and highlighting the scope for policy to promote adjustment mechanisms conducive to aggregate productivity. |
| Keywords: | training; retirement; trade; technological change; automation; robots; firms; workers; labor market; |
| JEL: | J24 J26 O33 F16 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–11–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:551 |
| By: | Christoph Boehm; Aaron B. Flaaen; Nitya Pandalai-Nayar; Jan Schlupp |
| Abstract: | We develop a new algorithm to map confidential firm-level export transactions to their underlying establishments that can be implemented on U.S. microdata. Using this procedure, we construct a novel micro-dataset of U.S. exports at the plant level. Aggregation of these data permits more accurate measurement of exporting at the subnational level (e.g., county, MSA, etc.) than was previously possible. The data reveal exports to be much more geographically concentrated than both employment and manufacturing sales, implying that some regions are heavily reliant on foreign demand. To illustrate the consequences of such exposure, we study the effects of the trade collapse during the Great Recession on local labor markets. Counties experiencing greater declines in foreign demand performed worse in terms of employment, pay, and wages during the Great Recession. A similar analysis implemented with publicly available imputed export data—a common practice in the literature—fails to replicate these estimates. |
| JEL: | F0 F10 F14 F16 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34508 |
| By: | Gustavo de Souza; Haishi Li; Ziho Park; Yulin Wang |
| Abstract: | On April 2, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced the "Liberation Day" tariffs, creating an unexpected, precisely timed, and country-specific episode of trade policy uncertainty. The proposal threatened U.S. trade partners with additional tariffs ranging from 10% to 50%, depending on the outcome of bilateral negotiations. Using transaction-level U.S. import data, we find that firms rapidly shifted sourcing from countries facing high tariff risk to those facing low tariff risk. Firms didn't change their total import values but this reallocation came at the cost of higher import prices. Firms with stickier or contract-dependent trade relationships and greater reliance on trade finance drove this preemptive reallocation, which is consistent with them being hit hardest had tariffs been implemented before they could adjust. Our findings demonstrate that even brief periods of trade policy uncertainty can significantly disrupt supply chains. |
| Keywords: | global supply chains, trade war, trade adjustment |
| JEL: | F14 F63 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12285 |
| By: | Márta Bisztray (Hungarian Academy of Science, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies); Gábor Békés (Central European University); Alexandros Charos (WIFO); Klaus Friesenbichler; Miklós Koren (Central European University); Agnes Kügler; Balázs Lengyel (HUN-REN CERS – Institute of Economics); Amanda De Pirro (HUN-REN CERS – Institute of Economics); Birgit Meyer (WIFO) |
| Abstract: | Recent events have posed considerable challenges to supply chain, as demonstrated by trade data. Yet, firm-level information on the recent challenges remains scarce. The Supply Chain Disruption Survey addresses this gap by generating insights into firms' experiences and expectations regarding their supplier relationships, with a special focus on the role of intangibles and changes over time. Conducted as part of the RETHINK-GSC Horizon research project, the survey was carried out in Austria, Denmark, Germany, and Hungary between mid-2023 and spring 2024. The survey focused on medium-sized and large firms operating in various manufacturing industries. This paper has two main objectives: first, it provides information about the survey's background, design, questionnaire, and implementation; and second, it presents the key patterns visible in the survey. The results indicate that sourcing remains anchored in Europe but is diversified. Experiencing disruption was nearly universal between 2020 and 2023, mostly due to COVID-19, but also due to the war in Ukraine and trade policy changes. Despite the perception of the disruptions being of temporary nature, the anticipation of risk increased. Firms adopted different risk mitigation strategies, including diversifying their supplier portfolio and information sharing with suppliers. |
| Date: | 2025–11–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2025:i:716 |
| By: | Sascha O. Becker; Hartmut Egger; Michael Koch; Marc-Andreas Muendler |
| Abstract: | This paper links globalization, worker efficiency, and wage inequality within plants to internal labor market organization. Using German plant–worker data and information on the task content of occupations, we document that larger plants (i) use more occupations, (ii) assign fewer tasks per occupation, and (iii) exhibit greater wage dispersion. We develop a model where plants endogenously bundle tasks into occupations, improving worker-task matching at the cost of higher fixed span-of-control costs. Embedding this into a Melitz framework, we show that trade increases worker efficiency and wage inequality in exporting plants, whereas non-exporting plants experience the opposite effects. Structural estimation and simulations confirm the model’s predictions and point to non-monotonic economy-wide effects. |
| Keywords: | tasks, specialization, international trade, firm-internal labor allocation |
| JEL: | F12 F16 J3 L23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12284 |
| By: | Sascha O. Becker (U Warwick and Monash University); Hartmut Egger (University of Bayreuth); Michael Koch (Aarhus University); Marc-Andreas Muendler (UC San Diego) |
| Abstract: | This paper links globalization, worker efficiency, and wage inequality within plants to internal labor market organization. Using German plant–worker data and information on the task content of occupations, we document that larger plants (i) use more occupations, (ii) assign fewer tasks per occupation, and (iii) exhibit greater wage dispersion. We develop a model where plants endogenously bundle tasks into occupations, improving worker-task matching at the cost of higher fixed span-of-control costs. Embedding this into a Melitz framework, we show that trade increases worker efficiency and wage inequality in exporting plants, whereas non-exporting plants experience the opposite effects. Structural estimation and simulations confirm the model’s predictions and point to non-monotonic economy-wide effects. |
| Keywords: | Tasks;, specialization;, international trade;, irm-internal labor allocation |
| JEL: | F12 F16 J3 L23 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2025-21 |