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on Human Capital and Human Resource Management |
| By: | Andrea Albanese; Lorenzo Cappellari (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Marco Ovidi (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore) |
| Abstract: | We study how worker-specific ability to generate earnings evolves over the life cycle. We measure the dynamics of earning ability by extending the canonical AKM model of wage determination to allow worker effects to vary as individuals age. Age-dependent estimates of earning ability unveil heterogeneous career trajectories, with high ability workers sorting into higher-paying employers early in their careers and moving to different firms to a lesser extent thereafter. We show that earning ability significantly decreases after job loss, suggesting that it is at least partly match-specific. This result is particularly pronounced for high-ability workers, who, conversely, are the ones experiencing the lowest penalties in employer pay after job loss. |
| Keywords: | Earning ability, AKM model, ageing. |
| JEL: | J31 J21 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie1:def148 |
| By: | Bloom, Nicholas; Kawakubo, Taka; Meng, Charlotte; Mizen, Paul; Riley, Rebecca; Senga, Tatsuro; Van Reenen, John |
| Abstract: | We link new forecast and management data on over 20, 000 firms to data on productivity in manufacturing and services. The panel survey was administered in the UK in July 2017 and November 2020, coinciding with two periods of considerable uncertainty from Brexit and Covid. We find that better-managed firms make more accurate forecasts for firm-level turnover and macro-level GDP. Uniquely, we show better-managed firms are also aware that they make more accurate forecasts and have greater confidence in their predictions. This highlights how superior forecasting ability enables well-managed firms to make improved operational and strategic choices. |
| Keywords: | management; productivity; expectations; uncertainty; forecasting |
| JEL: | L20 M20 O32 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–12–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130291 |
| By: | Rainer Michael Rilke (WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management); Dirk Sliwka (University of Cologne) |
| Abstract: | A large body of research across management, psychology, accounting, and economics shows that subjective performance evaluations are systematically biased: ratings cluster near the midpoint of scales and are often excessively lenient. As organizations increasingly adopt large language models (LLMs) for evaluative tasks, little is known about how these systems perform when assessing human performance. We document that, in the absence of clear objective standards and when individuals are rated independently, LLMs reproduce the familiar patterns of human raters. However, LLMs generate greater dispersion and accuracy when evaluating multiple individuals simultaneously. With noisy but objective performance signals, LLMs provide substantially more accurate evaluations than human raters, as they (i) are less subject to biases arising from concern for the evaluated employee and (ii) make fewer mistakes in information processing closely approximating rational Bayesian benchmarks. |
| Keywords: | Performance Evaluation, Large Language Models, Signal Objectivity, Algorithmic Judgment, Gen-AI |
| JEL: | J24 J28 M12 M53 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:384 |
| By: | Morien El Haj; Eline Moens; Elsy Verhofstadt; Luc Van Ootegem; Stijn Baert (-) |
| Abstract: | In tight labour markets, where employers compete not only on wages but also on amenities such as job family friendliness, employer-provided childcare arrangements serve as a powerful tool to attract and retain working parents. Yet little causal evidence exists on how employees evaluate such benefits. Therefore, this study uses a scenario experiment among working parents of young children to examine how job attractiveness is shaped by variations in employer-provided childcare arrangements – in terms of location, opening hours, and price – along with the possibility of teleworking. Our results show that all forms of employer-provided childcare increase job attractiveness, with childcare facilities operating on schedules explicitly aligned with employees’ working hours having the strongest effects. Working parents are willing to forego a 20% wage increase in a new job to obtain this latter amenity. They expect such amenity to improve their job satisfaction, performance, stress management, and work–family balance. Our results imply that the policy offers mutual gains for both employees and employers. |
| Keywords: | Childcare, Telework, Job attractiveness, Willingness to pay, Factorial survey experiment |
| JEL: | C91 J13 J16 J24 J81 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:26/1132 |
| By: | Torbjorn Hanson; Ashild Johnsen; Andreas Kotsadam; Alberto Prati |
| Abstract: | We report the results from a large field experiment that tests if happiness spreads within an organizational setting, as predicted by the emotional contagion hypothesis. Although some studies have supported this hypothesis, no well-powered randomized controlled trial has ever tested it in the field. In collaboration with the Norwegian Armed Forces, we randomly assign over 1, 500 recruits to rooms during eight-week boot camps. Some recruits live with relatively happier peers while others live with relatively unhappier ones. We find no evidence of happiness convergence at the room level and reject even small contagion effects. We show that this result is not because happiness is overly stable and that peer effects do emerge for some attitudes in non-emotional domains. These results call for a reconsideration of the presumed ubiquity of happiness spillovers, with subsequent implications for well-being models and policies. |
| Keywords: | happiness, subjective wellbeing, emotional contagion, field experiment, RCT |
| Date: | 2026–01–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2144 |
| By: | Sam J. Manning; Tomás Aguirre |
| Abstract: | We construct an occupation-level adaptive capacity index that measures a set of worker characteristics relevant for navigating job transitions if displaced, covering 356 occupations that represent 95.9% of the U.S. workforce. We find that AI exposure and adaptive capacity are positively correlated: many occupations highly exposed to AI contain workers with relatively strong means to manage a job transition. Of the 37.1 million workers in the top quartile of AI exposure, 26.5 million are in occupations that also have above-median adaptive capacity, leaving them comparatively well-equipped to handle job transitions if displacement occurs. At the same time, 6.1 million workers (4.2% of the workforce in our sample) work in occupations that are both highly exposed and where workers have low expected adaptive capacity. These workers are concentrated in clerical and administrative roles. Importantly, AI exposure reflects potential changes to work tasks, not inevitable displacement; only some of the changes brought on by AI will result in job loss. By distinguishing between highly exposed workers with relatively strong means to adjust and those with limited adaptive capacity, our analysis shows that exposure measures alone can obscure both areas of resilience to technological change and concentrated pockets of elevated vulnerability if displacement were to occur. |
| JEL: | J01 J20 J21 J24 J29 J63 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34705 |