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on Housing and Real Estate |
| By: | Lopez-Morales, Ernesto |
| Abstract: | During the 2010s, Chile experienced significant housing overvaluation and unaffordability. This chapter challenges the prevailing belief that land costs for developers are the primary cause of this issue. This study analyzes official data from Santiago, the capital city, showing that, on average, land costs for developers did not increase but slightly decreased between 2010 and 2019 due to fewer public restrictions on residential density. This indicates that land costs alone cannot explain the substantial rise in housing prices. This study investigates the impact of other economic and political factors on housing overappreciation, finding a surge in housing demand due to immigration and a shortage of new housing constructed since 2000 as a more probable cause. This supply shortage led to higher housing prices and rents, while housing demand became increasingly inelastic to absorb them. This study explores potential reasons for the lack of new housing construction and highlights the possibility of developers’ collusion, being a shortcoming of Chile’s neoliberal housing market. Finally, this study offers suggestions for improving market competitiveness, boosting new housing construction, and thus improving housing affordability in Chile. |
| Date: | 2026–02–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:tbe9c_v1 |
| By: | Anna Piil Damm; Ahmad Hassani; Anil Kumar; Juan Carlos Parra-Alvarez |
| Abstract: | To estimate the causal effect of immigration flows on housing market variables in the medium-run, we address the key problem of immigrant sorting by exploiting exogenous variation from push-factor migration and a unique institutional setting that allocates refugee immigrants to municipalities on a quasi-random basis. Economic theory predicts that immigrant influx will increase demand for residential space, increasing house rents and prices as well as residential construction at the aggregate level, but will have ambiguous effects at the neighborhood level in case of native flight. We find a large positive impact on house rents and prices and little evidence of native flight at the municipal level. At the neighborhood level, we also find a positive impact on house rents and prices, albeit more modest, as well as evidence of native flight. We further provide evidence of inelastic supply. Our findings support economic policies that increase housing supply elasticities and re-distribute part of the gains from immigration to groups that bear the burden from immigration and thereby decrease political opposition to immigration. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Residential real estate, Re-distribution, Inequality, Quasi-random allocation of refugee immigrants, Shift-share instruments |
| JEL: | J61 R31 H71 I38 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2578 |
| By: | Joshua Hausman; John V. Leahy; John Mondragon; Johannes F. Wieland |
| Abstract: | Nominal interest rates have real effects. Residential mortgages and other real world debt contracts require a sequence of constant nominal payments. Combined with payment-to-income constraints, these nominal payments force borrowers to take on less debt when nominal interest rates rise, regardless of the behavior of the real interest rate. Survey data shows that conditional on the real rate, higher nominal mortgage interest rates reduce home buying sentiment. And increases in nominal mortgage rates reduce mortgage origination more in cities where payment to-income constraints are more likely to bind. We explore the macroeconomic implications of payment-to-income constraints in a new Keynesian model modified to include a credit good. The payment-to-income constraint amplifies the effect of current short-term nominal interest rates on output and inflation, making the model less forward-looking than the standard new Keynesian model. |
| Date: | 2026–04–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:103060 |
| By: | Jörg Claussen; David Streich; Katerina Vlieg; Steffen Zetzmann |
| Abstract: | We study a German policy intervention that shifted the statutory incidence of real estate agent commissions from buyers to sellers. Liability-side equivalence predicts no effect on economic incidence as sellers are expected to pass on the additional burden through higher prices. We use real estate listings and transactions and exploit object-level susceptibility to the intervention in a difference-in-differences analysis. Contrary to economic theory, prices do not increase and sellers bear the burden of the intervention. Consistent with a lack of pass-through, sellers reduce demand for brokerage, especially when brokers are expensive and offer little benefit. Taken together, our results suggest that the intervention was effective at relieving homebuyers. |
| Keywords: | real estate agent commissions, intermediary fees, real estate brokerage, liability-side equivalence, housing policy |
| JEL: | R31 R38 H22 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12618 |
| By: | David Gstrein; Florian Neumeier; Andreas Peichl; Pascal Zamorski |
| Abstract: | This paper presents novel estimates of the incidence of corporate taxes that, for the first time, account for commercial real estate. We combine unique real estate data with administrative data on wages and profits in Germany. We leverage over 17, 000 local business tax changes for our empirical analysis. Our estimates indicate that a one percentage point increase in local business taxes reduces commercial real estate prices by 2%, while residential real estate prices decline by 1%. Wages decline by approximately 1%, and profits decline by about 2%. Using the reduced-form estimates, we update current incidence measures within a spatial-equilibrium framework. |
| Keywords: | Corporate taxation, tax incidence, real estate markets |
| JEL: | H22 H25 H71 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:25143 |
| By: | Sergio Díaz V.; Mauricio Salas G.; Francisco Vásquez |
| Abstract: | An abrupt adjustment in housing values could impact the banking system’s capital, given its role as collateral for mortgage and commercial loans. Moreover, such a shock would affect aggregate demand, particularly the residential construction sector and household consumption, through the wealth effect. This study presents two tools to analyze the potential impact of a decline in housing prices on the banking system. The first consists of a model that estimates the long-term equilibrium price of housing in Chile at the macrozone level, facilitating the identification of possible misalignments relative to fundamentals. The second tool is a stress test designed to assess the impact of a potential sharp drop in prices on bank capital. Evidence suggests that, in general, price movements have been consistent with income trends and financing conditions. In an adverse scenario as described, the impact on provisions would be significant; however, it would not have material effects on bank capital. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:1074 |
| By: | Augusto Ospital |
| Abstract: | In the past two decades, about half of the new homes in the United States were built in areas at risk of natural hazards. Why is residential development exposed to such risk? I argue that regulated property-insurance pricing and land-use regulations contribute to this pattern. I study this mechanism in the metropolitan area of San Diego, California, where insurance rules compress the premium gradient with respect to wildfire risk and safer locations are highly regulated and built out. Using detailed spatial data on zoning, wildfire risk, housing, commuting, and premiums, I estimate a quantitative urban model of household location choice, housing supply, and insurance supply. The estimates imply that wildfire premiums are 10.5% below actuarially fair pricing, that the average amenity cost of current wildfire risk is equivalent to 3.5% of income, and that the total present-value welfare cost of current wildfire risk, including property damages, is $17.5 billion. This aggregate cost masks substantial incidence heterogeneity, as owners of safe land benefit from equilibrium scarcity effects. Counterfactuals show that housing supply and insurance pricing interact in determining incidence. In the benchmark specification, targeted housing reforms leave the aggregate effect of cost-based insurance nearly unchanged while attenuating its burden on workers: relative to baseline, workers' wildfire costs rise by 2.3% under insurance reform alone, but fall by 0.9% under the joint reform. |
| Keywords: | climate, environment, natural disasters, wildfires, spatial, urban, land-use regulation, zoning |
| JEL: | O18 Q54 Q56 R23 R31 R52 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12613 |
| By: | Anna Pestova; Alexander Popov |
| Abstract: | We document persistent human capital scarring among the children of homeowners who reached college age during the 2008–2011 housing bust. Negative shocks to parental housing wealth substantially reduced college attendance among first-year college-age children of homeowners, relative to their counterparts from renter households. In regions experiencing the largest declines in housing wealth, the educational gap between the offspring of homeowners and renters persisted for at least a decade. The shortfall in human capital accumulation translated into lower long-run employability, particularly in education-intensive sectors, and resulted in lower earnings among the affected cohort. |
| Keywords: | Homeownership, housing wealth, human capital, housing boom-bust episodes |
| JEL: | I24 E32 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp817 |
| By: | Mette Foged; Jens Hainmueller; Mikkel Stahlschmidt; Edith Zink |
| Abstract: | Sudden displacement crises strain reception systems and require rapid expansion of refugee accommodation beyond conventional channels. We study Denmark's 2022 reception of Ukrainian refugees and provide the first population-level analysis of two scalable strategies that expanded capacity outside standard public refugee housing: public "pop-up" shelters and private hosting in residents' homes. Using linked administrative registers covering the full arriving population, combined with a representative refugee survey, we classify each refugee's initial accommodation from address and co-residence records and track outcomes for 18 months. The majority of arrivals was absorbed in pop-up shelters (37%) and private hosting (43%). Both proved durable, with mean stays of about seven months and no indication that private hosting was less stable. Exploiting quasi-random assignment generated by within-municipality capacity and time constraints, we estimate effects of accommodation type while conditioning on locality, arrival timing, and sociodemographics. Relative to conventional public housing, private hosting led to higher early employment, higher earnings, persistently lower public-transfer receipt, and improved psychological well-being. Pop-up housing performed at least as well on labor-market outcomes and showed modest gains in social integration. By holding locality constant, we show that how refugees are housed within municipalities has an independent, first-order effect on integration-distinct from the well-studied importance of where they are placed. These findings highlight the potential for civic-led accommodation to complement public systems during displacement shocks and shape long-term refugee trajectories. |
| Keywords: | Refugees; integration; public policy; housing provision |
| JEL: | J15 J61 J68 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:25154 |
| By: | Martin Cesnak (National Bank of Slovakia); Andrej Cupak (LIS Cross-National Data Center); Pirmin Fessler (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Analysis Division); Ján Klacso (National Bank of Slovakia) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of borrower-based macroprudential policy tightening on mortgage lending in Slovakia, focusing in particular on the role of financial advisors in shaping loan characteristics. Using a comprehensive loan-level dataset from Slovak banks, we analyze the effects of key regulatory tools — Loan-to-Value (LTV), Debt-to-Income (DTI), and Debt Serviceto- Income (DSTI) limits — on mortgage risk profiles. Our contributions include: (1) showing that restrictive borrower-based measures (BBMs) reduce the riskiest loans but push lower-risk segments toward regulatory thresholds, thus increasing portfolio risk; (2) demonstrating that advisor-mediated loans tend to have higher amounts, LTVs, DTIs, and longer maturities, raising their riskiness; and (3) finding that strict enough DSTI limits not only reduce DSTI but may also indirectly effect other loan characteristics, such as DTI, LTV ratios, and loan volumes, suggesting broader policy impacts. Additionally, we identify significant front-loading behavior following policy tightening announcements, particularly for advisor-mediated loans. These findings highlight the importance of detailed micro-level data in capturing policy effects and informing more effective macroprudential regulation. |
| Keywords: | debt behavior, financial advice, macroprudential policy, policy evaluation, heterogeneous effects, register microdata. |
| JEL: | G21 D18 D12 |
| Date: | 2025–01–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:onb:oenbwp:263 |
| By: | Nicole Czaplicki; Colin J. Shevlin; Hector R. Ferronato; Aidan D. Smith; Dwarakh V. Nayam; Lei Peng; Scott W. Springer; Doren Walker |
| Abstract: | As part of the comprehensive Construction Re-engineering Initiative at the U.S. Census Bureau, alternative data sources are being considered to supplement or replace current data collection methods. For the Survey of Construction (SOC), which measures new residential construction, this includes observing housing starts from satellite imagery in place of the current interviews for housing starts conducted by field representatives. Satellite images are obtained monthly for a subset of places in the SOC sample. Convolutional neural network models are then applied to images to predict likely new residential construction projects, with the current focus being single-family housing starts. Several post prediction processing steps are applied including exclusions based on intersections with known buildings or roads, treatments for missing data due to cloud cover, and adjustments for the length of time between consecutive images, to ultimately produce place level estimates of housing starts. These place level estimates are then combined with the existing building permit level survey data to produce estimates of West South Central division level housing starts, an experimental data product from the Census Bureau. |
| JEL: | C45 C8 C80 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35113 |
| By: | Yajna Govind; Jack Melbourne; Sara Signorelli; Edith Zink |
| Abstract: | Policies targeting disadvantaged areas aim to improve their conditions, but the labels they impose carry consequences of their own. In this paper, we examine Denmark's Ghetto Plan, one of the first recent place-based policies explicitly targeting migrant populations. Under this policy, certain public housing deemed problematic were officially designated as "ghettos", with minimal additional implications. Using rich administrative data and a Difference-in-Differences approach, we show that the policy backfired, worsening spatial inequality through compositional shifts driven by native avoidance. In addition, the policy was particularly detrimental to exposed natives, who accepted a 4% annual income loss to leave stigmatized areas. |
| Keywords: | residential segregation, place-based policies, migration, neighborhood effects |
| JEL: | J15 J18 R23 R28 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2583 |
| By: | Dayin Zhang; Panle Jia Barwick; Lu Han; Jonathan Kroah |
| Abstract: | Despite intense competition among mortgage lenders, borrowers face substantial price dispersion. We argue that realtor–loan officer referral networks are a key source of lender market power: by steering homebuyers toward a small set of loan officers, these networks restrict effective borrower choice even in competitive markets. Using a novel dataset linking 81, 306 realtors to 102, 860 loan officers across 41 states, we document that such networks are pervasive and highly concentrated — 85% of realtors direct over 40% of their clients to fewer than four loan officers — and that this concentration persists and even increases in markets with more lenders. IV estimates indicate that borrowers using referred loan officers pay 18.6 basis points higher mortgage rates, equivalent to $2, 609 in upfront costs on the average loan of $306K. Referral lending raises rate spreads by 36.5% and accounts for half of the residual cross-sectional variation in spreads. The premium is nearly three times as large for Hispanic borrowers as for White borrowers, and is systematically higher for Black borrowers and financially constrained households. We identify two channels: referrals reduce borrowers' search intensity across lenders, and referred loan officers exercise pricing power relative to colleagues within the same institution. Efficiency gains from faster processing and reduced denial risk do not offset the additional costs. |
| JEL: | D40 G21 L14 L85 R31 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35015 |