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on Housing and Real Estate |
| By: | Manu García; Carlos Garriga |
| Abstract: | Manufactured homes face high mortgage denial rates due to collateral risks and rural market barriers, revealing structural limits in affordable housing finance. |
| Keywords: | manufactured homes; mortgage denials; collateral risks; rural housing; affordable housing; housing finance |
| Date: | 2026–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:103895 |
| By: | Arjan de Leuw; Marc Francke; Dorinth van Dijk |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of consumer confidence in shaping housing market participation and transaction prices. We combine individual-level measures of consumer confidence with administrative housing transaction data for the Netherlands over the period 2006 to 2024, exploiting within-quarter cross-sectional variation in confidence observed prior to market entry. Consumer confidence is a strong predictor of participation on both sides of the housing market, with substantially larger effects for buyers than for sellers. Conditional on participation and accounting for endogenous selection, buyers with more positive expectations pay 2.2% higher transaction prices in supply-constrained markets, with effects increasing to 4.4% in the most constrained areas. In contrast, seller confidence has no economically meaningful impact on transaction prices. The findings identify two distinct channels through which expectations affect housing market outcomes: by influencing market participation decisions and, conditional on participation, by affecting buyers’ willingness to pay. These results suggest that housing market dynamics are driven not only by valuation differences among active participants but also by confidence-induced selection into the market. |
| Keywords: | Consumer Confidence; Expectations; Market Participation; Transaction Prices; Housing Markets |
| JEL: | C34 D12 D84 G40 R30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:874 |
| By: | Adam Guren |
| Abstract: | What caused the 2000s housing cycle? This article synthesizes two decades of research, including reduced-form empirics and structural models. Although often contentious, the literature coheres once one accounts for each study’s timing, place, methodology, and measurement. The cycle was a perfect storm that occurred in distinct stages. Starting in the late 1990s, fundamentals improved, and credit supply increased across the income distribution due to automated underwriting and financial deregulation. In the early 2000s, a decline in interest rates was followed by a further expansion in securitized and subprime credit, the origin of which remains controversial. This sequence of shocks produced a persistent boom that triggered two shifts in beliefs: average expectations became overly optimistic, pushing prices higher, and expectations diverged, fueling speculation. In the bust, prices overshot primarily due to mortgage defaults, which removed buyers and contracted credit supply. How these forces interact and how expectations form require further research. |
| JEL: | E32 G21 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35863 |
| By: | Andreas Mense; Wolfgang Dauth; Matthias Wrede |
| Abstract: | We investigate the employment effects of job access within cities. To overcome the endogeneity of residential location choices, we exploit the quasi-random allocation of applicants across affordable housing units in five German cities and propose a novel IV strategy. Our job access measure combines proximity to jobs in both geographical and skill space, taking into account potential competition from other workers. We compile a unique administrative dataset comprising the complete labor market biographies of individuals who moved into affordable housing. A one-standard-deviation increase in job access reduces the unemployment hazard of unskilled workers by 3.4 percentage points. We do not find similar effects for skilled workers, who are more likely to own a car and are therefore less geographically constrained. Simulations show that full segregation, with all unskilled allocated to central neighborhoods, would reduce the city-wide unemployment rate of the largest city in our sample, Munich, by 1.3 percentage points. |
| Keywords: | job access, unemployment, urban labor markets, labor supply, affordable housing |
| JEL: | I31 I38 J13 R23 R38 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13040 |
| By: | Dennis Bonam; Dorinth van Dijk; Gavin Goy; Bing Zhu |
| Abstract: | We provide new evidence on the international spillover effects of US monetary policy through global commercial real estate (CRE) markets. Using a global VAR-X model that exploits both city- and country-level data, we account for spatial dependencies arising from cross-border investor ownership of CRE. A US quantitative easing shock leads to a persistent rise in CRE prices, both within and outside the US, and an expansion of credit, but mostly in the US. To interpret these findings, we develop an open economy New Keynesian model with CRE markets, which highlights the role of increased domestic demand for foreign CRE as a key transmission channel. Moreover, the model reveals that spillover effects can spill back to the US via trade linkages, amplifying the initial effects of US monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy; commercial real estate; international spillovers; quantitative easing; global VAR-X model; New Keynesian model; |
| JEL: | C32 E32 E52 F42 R33 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:872 |