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on Housing and Real Estate |
| By: | Kaas, Leo; Kocharkov, Georgi; Syrichas, Nicolas |
| Abstract: | We examine the evolution of spatial house price dispersion during Germany's recent housing boom. Using a dataset of sales listings, we find that house price dispersion has significantly increased, which is driven entirely by rising price variation across postal codes. We show that both price divergence across labor market regions and widening spatial price variation within these regions are important factors for this trend. We propose and estimate a directed search model of the housing market to understand the driving forces of rising spatial price dispersion, highlighting the role of housing supply, housing demand and frictions in the matching process between buyers and sellers. While both shifts in housing supply and housing demand matter for overall price increases and for regional divergence, we find that variation in housing demand is the primary factor contributing to the widening spatial dispersion within labor market regions. |
| JEL: | D83 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19397 |
| By: | Ben-Moshe, Dan; Genesove, David |
| Abstract: | Regulation is a major driver of housing supply, yet often difficult to observe directly. This paper estimates frontier cost, the non-land cost of producing housing absent regulation, and regulatory tax, which quantifies regulation in money terms. Working within an urban environment of multi-floor, multi-family housing and using only apartment prices and building heights, we show that the frontier is identified from the support of supply and demand shocks without recourse to instrumental variables. In an application to new Israeli residential construction, and accounting for random housing quality, the estimated mean regulatory tax is 48% of housing prices, with significant variation across locations. Higher regulation is associated with proximity to city center, higher density, and higher prices. We construct a lower bound for the regulatory tax that allows quality to differ systematically over location and time, by assuming (weak) complementarity between quality and demand. The bound is most useful after prices have increased, so that at the end of our sample period, with prices at their highest, we bound the regulatory tax between 40% (using a 2km radius) and 53%. |
| Keywords: | Housing; Regulation; Stochastic frontier analysis; Real estate |
| JEL: | R52 C01 D24 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19500 |
| By: | Ahlfeldt, Gabriel; Szumilo, Nikodem; Tripathy, Jagdish |
| Abstract: | We quantify the housing-consumption channel in mortgage demand according to which households borrow more following house-price increases since housing and non-housing consumption are imperfect substitutes. To identify this channel, we take a structural approach to mortgage demand and supply, exploiting exogenous variation in house-price growth and a unique dataset with matched transaction-price and mortgage information. We estimate an elasticity of mortgage borrowing to house-prices of 0.82. Counterfactual analysis of the general-equilibrium of housing and mortgage markets shows that, sans housing-consumption channel, mortgage and house-price growth in the UK would have been 50% and 31% lower, respectively, since the 1990s. |
| Keywords: | House prices |
| JEL: | G11 G21 R21 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19370 |
| By: | Yi Fan; Ho Pin Teo; Yong Tu; Wayne Xinwei Wan |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of social integration on immigrants' housing behaviours from a temporal perspective, using Singapore's differential public housing policies on immigrants as a quasi-natural experiment. With the support of a local town council, we conducted a survey on social integration among 1, 128 immigrant and local households living in public housing estates. In the public open rental housing market - primarily accommodating yet-to-integrate immigrants - we find immigrant renters live up to 3.04% farther from their workplace and pay lower rents up to 0.67% per additional year of residency. Such impacts are more substantial among minority ethnic groups. The results remain robust when using alternative subjective or objective measures of social integration. However, in the public resale housing market - primarily accommodating native and well-integrated naturalised citizens - we find that naturalised citizens face no price premiums relative to native homebuyers, implying no further effect of integration on housing prices after well-integration. This study extends the literature of spatial assimilation focusing on ethnic residential segregations and is generalizable to cities with few ethnic enclaves. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.17633 |
| By: | Ludwig, Alexander; Mankart, Jochen; Quintana, Jorge; Wiederholt, Mirko |
| Abstract: | Expectations are central for housing decisions and heterogeneity in expectations is a robust feature of survey data. We study the implications of heterogeneity in house price growth expectations for the level of house prices. We feed the joint empirical distributions of income, wealth and expectations into a calibrated heterogeneous agents housing model. We find that eliminating heterogeneity in house price growth expectations would raise average house prices and amplify house price fluctuations thereby reducing the fit of the model. Without heterogeneity, average house prices would be about 11 percent higher and the boom-bust cycle would be about 41 percent larger. |
| Keywords: | Housing |
| JEL: | D14 D84 D31 E21 E30 G21 R21 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19498 |
| By: | Xi Yang |
| Abstract: | This project analyzes homeowners' self-reported home values from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) 1990–2008 panels, which cover the period 1990–2013 and span the onset of major housing price run-ups through subsequent declines. I compare county-level housing price trends derived from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) index with those implied by homeowners' self-reported values in the SIPP. Results show that aggregate trends are largely consistent across the two sources. I further document key deviations between them and identify factors that explain these differences. |
| Keywords: | SIPP |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:tnotes:26-25 |
| By: | David P. Glancy; Robert J. Kurtzman; Lara Loewenstein |
| Abstract: | Place-based policies are often caught between two potentially conflicting aims: (i) directing aid to needy communities and (ii) spurring investment. We study this tradeoff in the context of the Opportunity Zones (OZ) program. Leveraging unique phase-level microdata on commercial construction projects, we show that US state governors prioritized designating tracts where construction projects were already being planned. About two-thirds of the greater construction growth in OZs can be attributed to this selection. States prioritizing tracts with greater investment opportunities observed larger construction increases in designated tracts. We calibrate a structural model to quantify the effects of the program and examine counterfactuals under alternative preferences or eligibility criteria. |
| Keywords: | opportunity zones; commercial real estate; construction; time-to-plan |
| JEL: | R23 R32 R58 |
| Date: | 2026–07–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:103646 |
| By: | Yao-pei Wang; Yong Tu; Yi Fan |
| Abstract: | Using the outbreak of COVID-19 in Singapore as a quasi-natural experiment, we investigate tenants' changing responses to road traffic noise in the rental housing market, using 46, 980 transaction records between 2006 and 2022. Our difference-in-differences estimates show that road traffic noise decreases housing rents by 3.8% immediately after the pandemic outbreak and further declines by 12.7% in the subsequent year-equivalent to 186.7 US dollars per month. The results are robust to parallel trend analysis, permutation placebo tests, and tests using alternative distance thresholds or distance to the nearest main road. Then, we adopt a machine learning text analysis of 10, 425 rental housing advertisements, showing that tenants' preference for quietness increases by approximately 10% from 2019 into 2020. The new work-from-home business model and rising traffic from delivery services can explain for this pattern. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper using a large volume of transaction records to quantify city dwellers' willingness to pay for quietness in the COVID-19 context. Our results have policy implications for other nations and post-pandemic era on the interaction among urban planning, transport networks, and human settlements, and shed light on the pathway to achieve sustainable development goals. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.18677 |
| By: | Almiaza, Ammar (Raneen) |
| Abstract: | Prices, rents and affordability ratios are the usual starting point for any housing market analysis, but they seldom tell the whole story. Two cities may be equally unaffordable but may differ greatly in construction activity, vacancy, tenure structure, provision of public housing, access to mortgages and spatial connectivity to employment. In this paper, we develop a conceptual and methodological framework for the use of K-means clustering as a theory-guided tool for housing-market segmentation. The framework treats each housing market as: X_i=[D_i, S_i, A_i, P_i, E_i], where D_idenotes demand conditions, S_isupply capacity, A_iaffordability and market outcomes, P_ispatial accessibility, and E_isocioeconomic and tenure-system characteristics. In this paper K-means is not presented as the most sophisticated clustering algorithm, but it is valuable for the practical visibility of centroid profiles. Where the input variables are continuous, standardised and substantively meaningful in Euclidean space, centroids can assist researchers and planners to inspect whether a cluster corresponds to a recognisable housing market condition. Where categorical or ordinal variables are introduced in the analysis in the form of tenure regimes, rent-regulation categories or planning-system types, k-means should be compared with mixed-data alternatives such as k-prototypes and PAM with Gower distance. The proposed typology identifies constrained high-pressure markets, expensive but supply-active markets, broadly balanced markets, stagnant oversupplied areas, declining low-demand markets, and low-cost areas where affordability is undermined by poor access to jobs and services. The paper does not present empirical results, but explains how a European pilot could be implemented, using harmonised data at the city or functional urban area level. Its contribution is thus pre-empirical: it provides the conceptual and methodological architecture that a subsequent empirical study would have to test. |
| Date: | 2026–07–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:y7mdc_v1 |
| By: | Benjamin, Catherine; Delamarre, Alice; Dupuy, Christine; Gouaisbaut, Antoine; Petillon, Julien |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the implicit value of salt marsh ecosystem services along the French Atlantic coast using a hedonic pricing framework applied to over one million residential transactions across 16 departments (2012–2021). We estimate separate Box-Cox hedonic models for each department, systematically rejecting the log-linear specification and documenting substantial cross-departmental heterogeneity in marsh capitalization effects. Salt marsh proximity exerts a predominantly negative effect on property prices in most departments, with sign reversals in coastal configurations where marshes form part of a broader amenity bundle. The PPRi flood risk indicator is positively capitalized in most departments, consistent with a regulatory salience effect rather than risk compensation. These results suggest that housing markets capitalize regulatory constraints and amenity bundles rather than ecosystem service value per se, with direct implications for coastal conservation policy and benefit-transfer exercises |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404492 |
| By: | Keisuke KONDO; Toshihiro OKUBO |
| Abstract: | This study examines how urban planning is associated with vertical urbanization in Tokyo by using a unique building-level PLATEAU 3D City Model dataset from Japan. While urban economics has traditionally conceptualized density in two-dimensional terms, this study directly measures building height to capture the vertical dimension of urban development. Using OLS and quantile regression, we examine the relationship between floor area ratio (FAR) and residential and commercial building heights across use districts. The results show that FAR is positively associated with building height, but that this relationship is highly heterogeneous across the height distribution. In commercial districts, for both residential and commercial buildings, the FAR coefficient generally increases across quantiles, suggesting that FAR is more strongly associated with taller buildings than with buildings around the median of the height distribution. The study further reveals the coexistence of vertical and horizontal urbanization: inner and near-center areas accommodate density through taller buildings, whereas suburban areas remain more horizontally developed. Beyond market mechanisms, the findings suggest that long-standing residential zoning designed primarily for detached housing has constrained vertical intensification and may have contributed to a more horizontally oriented pattern of urban development. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:26061 |
| By: | Samuel Depraz (ESPI2R - Laboratoire ESPI2R Research in Real Estate [Paris] - ESPI - Ecole Supérieure des Professions Immobilières, EVS - Environnement, Ville, Société - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon - Mines Saint-Étienne MSE - École des Mines de Saint-Étienne - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon - INSA Lyon - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon - Université de Lyon - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - UJM EPE - Université Jean Monnet (EPSCPE) - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - ENSAL - École nationale supérieure d'architecture de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ALLHiS - Approches Littéraires, Linguistiques et Historiques des Sources - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - UJM EPE - Université Jean Monnet (EPSCPE)); Laura Duthilleul (ESPI2R - Laboratoire ESPI2R Research in Real Estate [Paris] - ESPI - Ecole Supérieure des Professions Immobilières); Serine Mechide (ESPI2R - Laboratoire ESPI2R Research in Real Estate [Paris] - ESPI - Ecole Supérieure des Professions Immobilières) |
| Abstract: | Matching housing stock to actual needs is a major challenge in metropolitan areas, where demand remains high despite increasingly constrained housing production. Especially in Île-de-France (Paris region), this disparity has led to a shortage of appropriate accommodations for households, while some properties remain unsellable for developers. This study aims to propose a new methodology for measuring current and future mismatch between housing stock and needs. Considering a potential housing demand model that accounts for both the inflow of new households and changes affecting the existing housing stock, we aim to anticipate housing needs through 2030 at a fine spatial scale. As this relies on projected demographic variables and housing stock data, we use a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) machine learning model to generate forecasts along with associated uncertainty measures. Then, we propose a dissimilarity index analyzing the current and projected mismatch between housing stock and potential demand which measures the difference between the distribution of household sizes and the distribution of main dwellings by number of rooms, calculated for each housing/household typology. Using publicly available datasets from the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) (Annual Housing database, Couple-Family-Household Database, Population Database and Income and Education Database) from 2006 to 2021, we calculated and projected both demographic and construction dynamics, as well as the dissimilarity index, in Île-de-France for 4 888 IRIS units (the finest geographical level) in 2021 and 2030. Our results reflects a structural current and projected misalignment in the housing stock in Île-de-France, at IRIS level, with an over-representation of larger dwellings relative to the actual household composition. In other words, in the majority of Île-de-France territories, the available housing is, on average, larger than the size of households. |
| Abstract: | Nous proposons une nouvelle méthodologie pour mesurer l'inadéquation actuelle et future du stock de logements avec les besoins en 2021 et 2030 à une échelle spatiale fine (IRIS). Pour cela, nous utilisons un modèle de demande potentielle de logement, tenant compte à la fois de l'afflux de nouveaux ménages et des changements affectant le parc immobilier existant. Pour projeter le plus finement possible cette demande potentielle, nous proposons un modèle LSTM. Un indice de dissimilarité est ensuite calculé pour mesurer l'inadéquation entre le stock et les besoins en logement. En utilisant des données issues de l'INSEE de 2006 à 2021, nous obtenons les projections démographiques et immobilières ainsi que l'indice de dissimilarité en Île-de-France pour 4 888 IRIS en 2021 et 2030. Nos résultats confirment un déséquilibre structurel présent et futur du parc immobilier en Île-de-France, avec une surreprésentation de grands logements par rapport à la taille des ménages. |
| Keywords: | Housing needs, Break-even point, Potential demand model, LSTM Model, Housing stock, Dissimilarity index, Modèle LSTM, Stock de logements, Point mort, Modèle de demande potentielle, Indice de dissimilarité, Besoins en logement |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05701474 |
| By: | Fetzer, Thiemo; Guin, Benjamin; Netto, Felipe; Saidi, Farzad |
| Abstract: | This paper uncovers if and how insurance companies react to shocks to collateral in their portfolio of securitized assets. We address this question in the context of commercial real estate cash flow shocks, which are informationally opaque to holders of commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). Using detailed micro data, we show that cash flow shocks during the COVID-19 pandemic predict CRE mortgage delinquency, especially those stemming from lease expiration of offices, reflecting lower demand for these properties. Insurers react to such cash flow shocks by selling more exposed CMBS---mirrored by a surge in small banks holding CMBS---and the composition of their CMBS portfolio affects their trading behavior in other assets. Our results indicate that institutional investors actively monitor underlying asset risk, and even gain an informational advantage over some banks. |
| Keywords: | Work-from-home |
| JEL: | G20 G21 G22 G23 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19465 |
| By: | Ahlvik, Lassi; van Kooten, Sebastiaan |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the costs and distributional impacts of the Natura 2000 network. We estimate how land use restrictions are capitalized into property prices in Finland by combining data on land transactions with the roll-out of the protection network. Our results indicate a sizable negative effect on forest and agricultural land and a moderate negative effect on unbuilt lots inside conservation areas. The negative effects are more pronounced in socio-economically deprived areas. In contrast, we find a positive effect on built properties both inside and in near vicinity of the protected areas. The net economic costs of Natura 2000 were moderate, but it had a clear distributional impact, reallocating rents from landowners to house and cabin owners. |
| Keywords: | Biodiversity; Environmental policy; Distributional effects; Environmental justice |
| JEL: | R14 Q57 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19400 |
| By: | Bach, Laurent; Girshina, Anastasia; Sodini, Paolo |
| Abstract: | Using repeat-sales data on apartments in Sweden, we estimate the gender gap in real estate returns. We find that transactions executed by women earn 2 percentage points (pp) lower returns compared to those executed by men, which narrows down to less than 0.5 pp once renovations are taken into account. This residual gender gap is fully explained by the fact that women are less likely to select into real estate-relevant occupations and are older on average. We cannot confirm that the gender gap stems from men's higher ability to either time the market or negotiate aggressively. |
| Keywords: | Gender gap; Real estate; Returns |
| JEL: | G5 G11 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19433 |
| By: | Casado, Alejandro; Martinez-Miera, David |
| Abstract: | We provide evidence that bank loan supply reactions to monetary policy changes are market-specific, emphasizing the importance of banks’ local specialization. We analyze the U.S. mortgage market and find that when monetary policy eases, banks increase new mortgage lending growth more in markets in which they are geographically specialized relative to other markets and banks. This holds after controlling for local lending opportunities and (unobservable) bank differences. Further empirical findings, supported by a simple model, suggest that banks face market-specific differences in lending advantages, related to market-specific information, leading them to exhibit different reactions to monetary policy changes. We document the aggregate effects of this geographical specialization channel both at the county level on mortgage supply and house price growth, as well as at the bank level on average specialization growth. Our study underscores the relevance of banks’ local specialization in shaping the transmission of monetary policy. |
| JEL: | D82 E52 E58 G21 G23 L10 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19473 |