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on Housing and Real Estate |
| By: | Bruns, Daniel (Leibniz University of Hannover); Thomsen, Stephan (Leibniz University of Hannover) |
| Abstract: | How do residential real estate markets value large-scale climate policies? We study how Germany’s coal phase-out affects residential property values near decommissioned power plants. Combining detailed residential property listing data from 2007 to 2023 with the staggered timing of plant closures, we estimate dynamic spatial DiD models. Nearby residential property values decline by 8.2%, implying aggregate homeowner wealth losses of approximately €1.9 billion. To distinguish economic from environmental adjustment, we examine changes in employment, population, purchasing power, and air pollution. Declines in population, employment and purchasing power coincide with falling residential property values, whereas improvements in air quality do not seem to offset these losses. Our findings show that residential real estate markets primarily capitalize the deterioration of local economic fundamentals rather than improvements in environmental quality, implying that climate policy generates substantial localized household wealth effects through residential real estate markets – a distributional channel that complements conventional evaluations focused on aggregate environmental benefits and macroeconomic adjustment. |
| Keywords: | asset pricing, housing prices, climate policy, wealth effects, real estate |
| JEL: | Q40 Q48 R12 R31 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18865 |
| By: | Mathias Dolls; Clemens Fuest; David Gstrein; Carla Krolage; Florian Neumeier |
| Abstract: | We study how regulatory risk affects housing markets in the aftermath of rent control. Our setting is Berlin, where a stringent rent cap introduced in 2020 was repealed in 2021, but was followed by continued political debate over expropriation of housing companies and further intervention. Using micro-level listing data and a hedonic difference-in-differences design comparing Berlin to other major German cities, we show that Berlin’s price-rent ratio remained 10–15 percent below its pre-intervention trend three years after repeal. To interpret this persistence, we develop a simple model in which institutional investors face greater exposure to future regulation. The model predicts lower asset prices, reduced institutional ownership, and partial crowding-in of private investors. Consistent with these predictions, we document a sharp rise in housing policy uncertainty after repeal and show that large housing companies reduced their Berlin portfolios, accepted lower sale prices, and sharply cut construction activity. The results imply that credible threats of future intervention can depress housing valuations and reshape market structure even in the absence of binding regulation. |
| Keywords: | housing markets, rent regulation, policy uncertainty, asset pricing, institutional investors, property rights |
| JEL: | R31 R38 D84 G12 P48 H13 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12851 |
| By: | Le Blanc, Julia; Slacalek, Jiri; White, Matthew |
| Abstract: | Homeownership rates and holdings of housing wealth differ immensely across countries. We specify and estimate a life cycle model with risky labor income and house prices in which households face a discrete–continuous choice between renting and owning a house, whose sale is subject to transaction costs. The model allows us to quantify three groups of explanatory factors for long-run, structural differences in the extensive and intensive margins of housing: the homeownership rate and the value of housing wealth of homeowners. First, in line with survey evidence, we allow for differences in expectations of house prices. Second, countries differ in the institutional set-up of the housing market: maximum loan–value ratio and costs of renting, maintaining, and selling a house. Third, we allow for differences in household preferences: the dispersion in discount factors, the share of housing expenditure, and the bequest motive. We estimate the model using micro data from five large economies and provide a decomposition to interpret what drives the cross-country differences in housing wealth. We find that all three groups of factors matter, although preferences less so. Differences in homeownership rates are strongly affected by (i) house price beliefs and (ii) the rental wedge, the difference between rents and maintenance costs, which reflects the quality of the rental market. Differences in the value of housing wealth are substantially driven by housing maintenance costs. |
| Keywords: | Housing; Homeownership; House price expectations; Housing market institutions; Cross-country comparisons |
| JEL: | D15 D31 D84 E21 G11 G51 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19838 |
| By: | Pestova, Anna; Popov, Alexander |
| Abstract: | College enrollment typically rises during recessions. This paper demonstrates that housing wealth destruction dampened this countercyclical effect in areas most affected by the U.S. housing bust of 2008-2011. By combining household data with a mortgage credit register and housing price data, we reveal that negative shocks to housing wealth significantly reduced college enrollment among homeowners relative to renters during this period. Up to 2% of the local college-age population did not pursue college enrollment at the height of the bust due to housing wealth destruction. The negative impact of homeownership on college education persists for a decade, contributing to persistently lower incomes among homeowners in the most affected areas. |
| Keywords: | Homeownership |
| JEL: | I24 E32 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19785 |
| By: | Ursula Berresheim; Marina Hoch |
| Abstract: | The United States faces record-low fertility rates amid persistently high housing costs and a con strained housing supply. One factor may be the limited downsizing of empty-nesters and retirees, which concentrates housing among elderly cohorts and restricts access for young families during their prime childbearing years. This paper investigates the link between low fertility and the high elderly housing concentration. In the U.S. context, we document a strong association between low fertility and both high elderly housing concentration and low housing supply elasticity. To quantify the underlying mechanisms, we develop a general equilibrium overlapping generations model with endogenous fertility and housing. In the model, two channels dominate: liquidity constraints among young households, which prevent them from accessing housing large enough to comfortably raise children, and habit formation amongoldercohorts, whichdiscouragesdownsizingandfosterselderly housing concentration. We conduct counterfactual policy analysis aimed at raising fertility through a reduced elderly housing concentration. An increase in property taxation reduces elderly housing concentration, but depresses fertility and welfare. Liquidity-focused interventions are more effective: a targeted transfer to young parents simultaneously raises fertility, reduces concentration, and gener ates large welfare gains. Yet, the cohort-specific welfare decomposition shows that these gains come partly at the expense of older cohorts. |
| Keywords: | Fertility, Housing Markets, Housing Wealth Concentration, Demographic Change, Housing Affordability, Taxation |
| JEL: | J13 R31 E21 R21 J11 R38 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_771 |
| By: | Chandhini Anbalagan (Research Scholar, Madras School of Economics, Chennai, India.); Zareena Begum Irfan (Professor, Madras School of Economics, Chennai, India.) |
| Keywords: | Housing deprivation ; Multiple Correspondence Analysis ; Housing Adequacy ; Urbanisation. Classification-JEL: : R21, R31, I32, C38Abstract: Despite a significant decline in extreme poverty rates, the rising inequalities and rapid urbanization in mega cities of India have exacerbated the problems of inadequate housing, overcrowding, and the proliferation of informal settlements. Given the multidimensional nature of housing deprivation, the study employed 18 key indicators of housing deprivation from the 76th National Sample Survey on Drinking Water, Housing, and Sanitation to develop the “Housing Deprivation Index” at the household level for the year 2018. Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) was employed to endogenously weight the 18 housing quality indicators, with the first dimension explaining 73% as a latent construct of the housing deprivation level. State level estimates of housing deprivation reveal stark interstate disparities. Housing deprivation in India is shaped by social, spatial and economic inequality with disadvantaged caste, rural households and poorer households experiencing significantly high deprivation. These findings underscore the need for housing policy to occupy a central position in India amid rapid urbanization and persistent spatial and socio-economic inequalities in adequate housingLength: 34 pages |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mad:wpaper:2026-308 |
| By: | Zhang, Wenbei |
| Abstract: | In January 2024 the City of Edmonton enacted Zoning Bylaw 20001, replacing its several low-density residential zones into a single Small Scale Residential (RS) zone that generally permits a broader range of small-scale forms, with interior sites capped at eight dwellings and additional allowances on qualifying corner sites. I study how this city-wide upzoning affected the housing market using transaction- and permitlevel data (permits 2009–2025; sales 2021–2025). Because the reform took effect on a sharp, common date, I trace its effects with a dynamic event study and a regression discontinuity in time that fix the treated geography to land zoned RS today, and I add a difference-in-differences against non-upzoned detached homes to net out Alberta’s coincident demand boom. Three results emerge. First, quality-adjusted detached prices in RS areas show no pre-trend and then rise after the reform; the gross rise is large (≈17% within six quarters), but once city-wide demand is differenced out the upzoning-specific capitalization is a more modest 3–7%—still consistent with rapid pricing of redevelopment option value. Second, residential permitting and especially dwelling units added respond more slowly, with a flat pre-trend and a ramp that becomes visible about ten months after the reform; by late 2025 the RS area had recorded over 550 “multiplex” (3–8 unit) permits adding roughly 3, 600 units. Third, the supply response concentrates spatially in mature, central neighbourhoods. The findings portray upzoning as a pipeline policy: development rights and their capitalized value appear immediately, while delivered housing follows through a slower permitting and construction process. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404515 |
| By: | Drayton, Elaine; Levell, Peter; Sturrock, David |
| Abstract: | We estimate local housing supply elasticities for 325 local authorities and 6, 788 census tract areas in England. We examine how housing supply responds to price changes across small areas and how this varies according to a rich set of geographic and policy constraints. Our central estimate for the average elasticity of relative local supply with respect to price across local authorities is 0.14 over a period of 25 years between 1996 and 2021. This is low compared to estimates from other countries. Elasticities are lower in areas with less land available for development, greater differences in elevation, higher historical population density and in areas where local planning authorities had a greater historic tendency to reject new developments. We also find that urban density and constraints on the amount of available land have stronger negative effects on the supply of larger properties than properties with fewer bedrooms. |
| JEL: | R12 R31 R38 O18 O20 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19629 |
| By: | Bontemps, Christian; Cherbonnier, Frédéric; Magnac, Thierry |
| Abstract: | The existence of transaction taxes reduces transactions, and in the case of housing, reduces household mobility and affects the costs of downsizing in dire times. We construct and estimate an overlapping generation model in which households are heterogeneous in age and earnings, and prudential regulation and the tax system are modeled in fine detail. These housing and public policies are likely to affect markets globally, and clearing both rental and property markets is important when evaluating them. We use the institutional and data setting of France, where transactions taxes are some of the highest in Europe, and evaluate the counterfactual impact of reducing transaction taxes from 14% to 6%, similar to US levels. The impact on transactions is strong, but the impact on welfare remains limited. |
| Keywords: | Heterogenous agents |
| JEL: | C68 D15 D58 H31 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19647 |
| By: | Benetton, Matteo; Emiliozzi, Simone; Guglielminetti, Elisa; Loberto, Michele; Mistretta, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | This paper leverages the unexpected successful activation of a sea wall built to protect Venice from rising tides to estimate the capitalization into property values of public investment in resilience infrastructure. Using a difference-in-differences hedonic approach with high-frequency microdata on residential and commercial properties, we show that properties above the sea wall activation threshold experience a permanent reduction in flood risk and expected damages, reflected in higher prices. To account for city-wide effects and potential ex-post government bailouts, we analyze the effect of the second-largest flood in Venice centuries-long history on properties prices relative to the mainland as well as data on government claims matched with property elevations. Our findings indicate that capitalized benefits and projected government savings cover approximately 52% (101%) of the sea wall costs in a status-quo (sea-level-rise) scenario. Lastly, we calculate a break-even discount rate of 1.1%, which increases to to 2.5% under sea-level-rise projections. |
| Keywords: | Housing; Adaptation; Infrastructure |
| JEL: | Q54 R21 R38 O18 H54 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19706 |
| By: | Tatiana Kirsanova; Oyvind Masst; Charles Nolan |
| Abstract: | This paper studies interactions between labour and housing markets in the United Kingdom. We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model with search frictions in both markets, cross-market spillovers, and regime-switching monetary policy using UK quarterly data from 1971 to 2025. The estimates imply strong two-way interactions: housing-market disturbances affect unemployment, job creation and labour-market tightness, while labour-market shocks propagate into house prices, rents and housing activity. We use the model to study the major structural changes associated with the Thatcher era, including falling public housing construction, rising owner occupation and declining worker bargaining power. The results suggest that the largest effects operated through the labour market: lower bargaining power reduced unemployment substantially, while housing reforms increased owner occupation but did not generate a large lasting improvement in affordability. |
| Keywords: | estimated New Keynesian DSGE model, monetary policy, search-and-matching frictions, labour and housing markets, Thatcher times |
| JEL: | E32 E24 E52 E65 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2026-66 |
| By: | Fuad, Syed; Adisa, Abidemi; Farmer, Michael |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a proof-of-concept comparison of two approaches for delineating intra-urban housing submarkets, using Atlanta, Georgia as an illustrative case. The first approach applies the hierarchical model of Goodman and Thibodeau, which defines submarkets as spatially contiguous areas nested within high school districts. The second employs a fully endogenized finite mixture model (FMM) that partitions home sales into latent groups of households with similar preferences, independent of geographic location. Using approximately 5, 000 home sales from 2015-2016, a relatively stable period in the local housing market, we examine how each approach organizes house price variation and residential sorting, rather than attempting to identify a single optimal submarket structure. Both models generate efficient hedonic price estimates, but they differ fundamentally in the economic insights they provide. The hierarchical model offers a stable spatial framework for estimating the in situ capitalization of neighborhood amenities and public goods such as school quality. By contrast, the FMM reveals latent preference structures and highlights household sorting across potentially non-adjacent neighborhoods. Taken together, the results illustrate the complementary roles of spatially contiguous and preference-based submarket definitions in housing market analysis. Rather than advocating one approach over the other, the paper clarifies how different submarket strategies serve distinct analytical and policy objectives. |
| Keywords: | Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404729 |
| By: | Van Doornik, Bernardus; Fazio, Dimas; Ramadorai, Tarun; Skrastiņš, JÄ nis |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of access to housing on fertility rates using random variation from housing credit lotteries in Brazil. We find that obtaining housing increases the average probability of having a child by 3.8% and the number of children by 3.2%. For 20 to 25-year-olds, the corresponding effects are 32% and 33%, with no increase in fertility for people above age 40. The lifetime fertility increase for a 20-year old is twice as large from obtaining housing immediately relative to obtaining it at age 30. The increase in fertility is stronger for households in areas with lower quality housing, greater rental expenses relative to income, and those with lower household income and lower female income share. These results suggest that alleviating housing credit and physical space constraints can significantly increase fertility. |
| JEL: | D14 G23 J62 R20 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19805 |
| By: | Christopher Gresh; Andrew F. Haughwout; Eungik Lee; Wilbert Van der Klaauw |
| Abstract: | Americans are moving less than they used to. Moving rates have declined steadily for decades, falling from close to 20 percent annually in the mid-1980s to below 10 percent by 2019. This decline has persisted through business cycles and has been evident across all regions, and has affected a broad range of demographic groups. Falling mobility matters because moving helps households access job opportunities, adjust to changing circumstances, and improve their housing situations. In this post, we show that the decline in mobility also holds for renters, with growing challenges to owning a home being an important contributing factor. We use data from the annual New York Fed SCE Housing Survey to study renters’ expected mobility and the factors that shape it. Renter mobility is important as renters account for roughly a third of U.S. households and, unlike homeowners, are not subject to mortgage rate lock-in. Since expected mobility predicts actual moving behavior, it provides an early signal of where residential mobility is headed before moves occur. |
| Keywords: | residential mobility; renters; moving expectations |
| JEL: | R23 R21 D84 |
| Date: | 2026–08–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:103611 |
| By: | Sagner, Pekka; Voigtländer, Michael |
| Abstract: | Die Studie beleuchtet das Zusammenspiel von Migration und Wohnungsmarkt in Deutschland und verbindet eine Bestandsaufnahme zentraler Markttrends mit einer empirischen Auswertung repräsentativer Haushaltsdaten (SOEP). Ausgangspunkt ist ein Markt, der sich seit den 2010er-Jahren von langen Phasen der Stagnation zu anhaltender Knappheit entwickelt hat, getragen von einem positiven Außenwanderungssaldo, teilweise starker Binnenwanderungskonzentration, Einkommenszuwächsen und lange niedrigen Zinsen, zuletzt jedoch gebremst durch den Zinsanstieg und den Einbruch der Bautätigkeit. Im europäischen Vergleich bleibt Deutschland eine "Mieternation" mit niedriger Wohneigentumsquote; zugleich wächst die Zahl der Haushalte weiter, besonders in wirtschaftlich starken Städten. Deskriptiv wird gezeigt: Die Wohnfläche pro Kopf ist langfristig gestiegen, Unterschiede zwischen Eigentümern und Mietern sowie nach Migrationshintergrund bleiben jedoch bestehen. Subjektiv empfinden vor allem Mieterhaushalte mit direktem Migrationshintergrund häufiger ihre Wohnung als zu klein. Bei den Wohnkosten (definiert als Bruttokaltkosten; bei Eigentümern kalte Nebenkosten plus Zins-/Tilgung) verlaufen die durchschnittlichen Mietkosten von Migranten und Nicht-Migranten nahezu deckungsgleich; bei Eigentümern liegen die laufenden Kosten von Haushalten mit direktem Migrationshintergrund höher, unter anderem, weil häufiger Finanzierungen bedient werden. Beim Anteil der Wohnkosten am Nettoeinkommen (Wohnkostenbelastung) zeigt sich in beiden Gruppen ein stabiler Abstand zulasten von Migrantenhaushalten. Ökonometrisch werden multivariate Modelle mit umfangreichen Kontrollen (Haushalts- und Wohnungsmerkmale, Region, Jahr) sowie eine "Umzieher"-Perspektive (kurze Wohndauer) geschätzt. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass sich Unterschiede weniger in den nominalen Wohnkosten als vielmehr in der relativen Belastung manifestieren: Haushalte mit direktem Migrationshintergrund tragen, unter sonst gleichen Bedingungen, häufig eine um rund 1 bis 2 Prozentpunkte höhere Wohnkostenbelastung als vergleichbare Nicht-Migrantenhaushalte; dieses Muster findet sich bei Mietern und Eigentümern und wird durch die Umzieher-Analyse grundsätzlich gestützt. Die Befunde sind als robuste Zusammenhänge zu verstehen; kausale Mechanismen (z. B. Präferenzen, Netzwerke, Diskriminierung) sind in Haushaltsdaten nur begrenzt direkt beobachtbar. Politisch legt die Studie nahe: Engpässe lassen sich primär durch mehr Angebot lindern; schnellere Plan- und Genehmigungsprozesse, produktiveres Bauen, serielle Replikation und bessere Baulandmobilisierung. Flankierend sollte die Subjektförderung (Wohngeld) zielgenau entlasten. Sozial geförderter Wohnraum kann Zugangsbarrieren für benachteiligte Gruppen adressieren, wenn Vergabekriterien konsequent am Zugangsproblem orientiert sind und Bindungen wirksam genutzt werden. Strengere Mietpreisregulierungen bergen dagegen das Risiko, das Angebot weiter zu verknappen. Insgesamt spricht viel dafür, Migration als wirtschaftliche Chance zu sichern, durch ausreichend, bezahlbaren Wohnraum und faire Zugangschancen auf angespannten Märkten. |
| Abstract: | This report examines the interplay between migration and Germany's housing market, combining a stocktaking of key market trends with an empirical assessment of representative household data (SOEP). Since the 2010s, a previously sluggish market has shifted toward persistent scarcity, driven by positive net migration, concentrated internal migration, rising incomes, and a prolonged low-interest environment, recently tempered by higher interest rates and a sharp decline in construction. In European comparison, Germany remains a "nation of renters" with a low homeownership rate, while the number of households continues to grow, especially in economically dynamic cities. Descriptively, living space per capita has increased over time, yet gaps between owners and renters, and by migration background-persist. Subjective assessments indicate that renter households with a direct migration background more often perceive their dwelling as too small. Regarding housing costs (defined as cold housing costs; for owners: cold charges plus interest and principal payments), average rents for migrant and non-migrant households are nearly identical; by contrast, owner-occupiers with a migration background face higher ongoing costs, partly because mortgages are more common. In the housing cost burden (share of net household income), a stable disadvantage for migrant households appears among both renters and owners. Econometrically, multivariate models with extensive controls (household and dwelling characteristics, region, year) are estimated alongside a "movers" perspective (short residence duration). Results suggest that differences materialize less in nominal costs than in relative burden: households with a direct migration background, ceteris paribus, often face a housing cost burden around 1 to 2 percentage points higher than comparable non-migrant households. This pattern holds for renters and owners and is broadly corroborated in the recent movers subsample. These findings indicate robust associations; underlying mechanisms (e.g., preferences, networks, discrimination) are only partially observable in household data. Policy implications point primarily to expanding supply: faster planning and permitting, productivity gains in construction, greater standardization/replication, and improved land mobilization. Targeted demand-side support (housing allowance) should complement this. Social housing can mitigate access barriers for disadvantaged groups if allocation rules focus on access problems and binding periods are used effectively. Stricter rent controls risk constraining supply. Ensuring migration as an economic asset ultimately requires sufficient, affordable housing and fair access in tight markets. |
| JEL: | R21 J61 I32 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:342420 |
| By: | Marina Hoch |
| Abstract: | Natural disasters destroy substan al parts of homeowners' wealth and o en prompt large-scale government aid. This aid might crowd out private disaster insurance. However, homeowners already hold implicit insurance through the op on to default on mortgages. This op on shapes the welfare effects of government aid in two opposing ways. On the one hand, default already provides par al coverage, reducing the marginal value of aid. On the other hand, an cipa ng default leads households to underinsure. This underinsurance raises their financing costs and generates a commitment problem that the government can resolve. To quan fy the welfare effects of post-disaster government aid, specifically, rebuilding grants and foreclosure moratoria, I develop a structural general equilibrium model. The model embeds natural disaster shocks within an incomplete markets framework, which features two degrees of mortgage default: delinquency and foreclosure. Calibrated to the U.S. economy over 2000-2020, the model yields three main results. First, government aid increases uninsured losses by 36 percentage points and increases owner-occupied housing in disaster-prone areas by 14 percent compared with no aid. Second, government aid generates 0.25 percent aggregate welfare gains in consump on-equivalent terms, mainly benefi ng households in high-risk regions. Third, for equal fiscal cost, the greatest welfare gains occur when rebuilding transfers are provided independently of insurance coverage, thereby limi ng crowding out of private disaster insurance. |
| Keywords: | Government Aid, Mortgage Default, Housing, Natural Disasters, Disaster Insurance, Heterogeneous Agents |
| JEL: | G51 Q54 H84 G21 E21 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_772 |
| By: | Fang, Jo; Speer, Jessie |
| Abstract: | England today is embroiled in a housing crisis resulting from decades of policy choices that have eroded affordability. Simultaneously, political parties and popular media have constructed a so-called ‘migrant crisis’ based in the misplaced perception that increasing rates of migration have overburdened public budgets. Though often discussed separately, the housing crisis and the perceived crisis of migration are deeply intertwined outcomes of the same ideological, historical, and economic processes. In this article, we trace a critical history of English housing policy in light of contemporary anti-migrant narratives. Building on work from theorist Stuart Hall, who contended that moral panics around mugging in 1970s Britain served to distract from economic crisis and justify policing agendas, we argue that contemporary anti-migrant narratives have similarly taken root because of widespread economic anxiety in the face of strained public resources and escalating housing costs. We show how the scapegoat produced by contemporary migration panics is not only empirically unclear and conceptually oversimplistic but diverts attention away from longer-term political choices that have exposed large segments of the population to housing insecurity. |
| Keywords: | crisis;home;housing;migration;moral panic |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–07–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140441 |
| By: | Harrison, Eleanor; Badole, Sachin; Heintzelman, Martin |
| Abstract: | Perceived contamination of drinking water resources from per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) can act as an environmental disamenity for homeowners. This study evaluates the impact of nearby PFAS contamination of drinking water resources on property values in the entire state of Delaware, which has recorded instances of PFAS contamination in water resources since 2009. We build upon previous work to define contamination and knowledge of contamination based on classifications of the level of potential harm to human health, and the timing of water testing relative to the timing of home transactions. Our spatial analysis utilizes over 400 unique PFAS detections in surface and groundwater from 2009 to 2024, and statewide residential transactions that occurred from 2005 to 2025. We employ a hedonic difference-in-differences framework that uses a heterogeneous household-level definition of knowledge of and exposure to nearby contamination as an exogenous shock to the housing market, as well as spatial and temporal fixed effects. Results using this approach demonstrate no significant effect of nearby contamination on property values on average. However, in some specifications where we disaggregate treatment effects by treatment year, we find statistically significant declines in property values for tests conducted in 2022. Our findings contribute to the ongoing discussion of PFAS regulation efforts for drinking water resources. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404485 |
| By: | Li, Bo; Rebucci, Alessandro; Tong, Hui |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a theory of preemptive controls on capital outflows by residents as a second-best tool to mitigate boom-bust cycles in domestic asset markets and prevent wealth transfers from uninformed traders to pump-and-dump speculators, or financial ``looters, " as in Akerlof and Romer (1993). The model implies that when domestic financial regulation is imperfectly designed or enforced, controls on residents' outflows reduce retail investor manipulation (which we call looting), stabilize asset prices, and diminish capital flight. The paper also provides compelling evidence that supports the main implications of the model when applied to housing markets, which is particularly relevant to the institutions in developing countries. We find that deposit outflows to haven countries increase before busts in house prices, and countries with stricter controls on resident outflows experience significantly more contained deposit outflows to such destinations. The empirical analysis reveals a similar pattern for new incorporations in haven countries based on data from the Panama Papers. |
| Keywords: | House prices |
| JEL: | F3 G1 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19875 |
| By: | Hinds, Alan; Miller, Noah; Shew, Aaron |
| Abstract: | State-defined marital property regimes affect how federal capital gains taxes are applied to surviving spouses. The federal tax code allows for the basis of inherited assets to be “stepped-up” (increased) to the value at the time of the decedent’s death. In the 41 common law states, surviving spouses receive a partial basis adjustment for the deceased spouse’s share of the assets (typically half). In contrast, in the nine community property states, a full step-up in basis for marital assets is applied. In all states, a full adjustment is made after the surviving spouse’s death. This difference translates into substantial tax savings and reduced transaction costs for surviving spouses in community property states, often hundreds of thousands of dollars. We begin by describing the legal context of marital property regimes in the United States. Then, using a geographic border discontinuity paired with nationwide farmland transaction data, we consider the effects of state-defined marital property regimes on parcel-level prices and county-level turnover rates. Preliminary results for the upper Midwest are not indicative of a “jump” in farmland prices due to community property; however, there are indications of a negative spatial gradient of farmland prices associated with community property within 40km of the border. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance, Farm Management |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404338 |
| By: | D'Amico, Leonardo; Glaeser, Edward; Gyourko, Joseph; Kerr, William; Ponzetto, Giacomo |
| Abstract: | We document a Kuznets curve for construction productivity in 20th-century America. Homes built per construction worker remained stagnant between 1900 and 1940, boomed after World War II, and then plummeted after 1970. The productivity boom from 1940 to 1970 shows that nothing makes technological progress inherently impossible in construction. What stopped it? We present a model in which local land-use controls limit the size of building projects. This constraint reduces the equilibrium size of construction companies, reducing both scale economies and incentives to invest in innovation. Our model shows that, in a competitive industry, such inefficient reductions in firm size and technology investment are a distinctive consequence of restrictive project regulation, while classic regulatory barriers to entry increase firm size. The model is consistent with an extensive series of key facts about the nature of the construction sector. The post-1970 productivity decline coincides with increases in our best proxies for land-use regulation. The size of development projects is small today and has declined over time. The size of construction firms is also quite small, especially relative to other goods-producing firms, and smaller builders are less productive. Areas with stricter land use regulation have particularly small and unproductive construction establishments. Patenting activity in construction stagnated and diverged from other sectors. A back-of-the-envelope calculation indicates that, if half of the observed link between establishment size and productivity is causal, America’s residential construction firms would be approximately 60% more productive if their size distribution matched that of manufacturing. |
| Keywords: | Construction industry; Firm productivity; Land-use regulation; Housing |
| JEL: | D24 E23 L74 L78 R31 R38 R52 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19711 |
| By: | Crosignani, Matteo; Prazad, Saketh |
| Abstract: | We show that banks “extended-and-pretended†their impaired CRE mortgages in the post-pandemic period to avoid writing off their capital, leading to credit misallocation and a buildup of financial fragility. We detect this behavior using loan-level supervisory data on maturity extensions, bank assessment of credit risk, and realized defaults for loans to property owners and REITs. Extend-and-pretend crowds out new credit provision, leading to a 4.8–5.3% drop in CRE mortgage origination since 2022:Q1 and fuels the amount of CRE mortgages maturing in the near term. As of 2023:Q4, this “maturity wall†represents 27% of bank capital. |
| JEL: | G21 E51 R33 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19663 |