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on Housing and Real Estate |
| By: | Manu García; Carlos Garriga |
| Abstract: | This analysis finds that the U.S. has underbuilt housing for decades. The persistent supply shortfall amid growing demand drives today’s affordability crisis. |
| Keywords: | housing supply; housing affordability; residential building; housing construction; housing permits; housing stock; vacancy rates |
| Date: | 2026–04–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:103016 |
| By: | Miquel-Àngel Garcia-López (Department of Applied Economics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona and Institut d’Economia de Barcelona); Rosa Sanchis-Guarner (Universitat de Barcelona and Institut d’Economia de Barcelona); Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal (Universitat de Barcelona, Institut d’Economia de Barcelona and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | This paper surveys recent literature estimating the causal effects of urban transport investments and urban mobility policies on housing markets. We synthesise evidence along three dimensions: the capitalisation of accessibility gains, the internalisation of transport-related externalities, and the rise of green mobility initiatives. Results indicate that while improved accessibility is generally capitalised into higher property values, negative externalities—such as noise, pollution, and congestion—can attenuate or reverse these effects. Policies such as congestion pricing, zoning reforms, and low-emission zones also influence these outcomes, highlighting how institutions, network design, and local environmental conditions shape the housing market’s response to transport investments. Recent green interventions in city centres have shown an even stronger impact on housing prices, although they can also create spillover effects in nearby neighbourhoods. |
| Keywords: | transportation, housing prices, within cities |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea2601 |
| By: | Osswald do Amaral, Francisco; Staratschek, Gereon; Zdrzalek, Jonas; Zetzmann, Steffen |
| Abstract: | The rise in total upfront cash requirement has become the main obstacle to homeownership in Germany. Between 2015 and 2024, the average household needed a median of 9.37 years to save the necessary funds for a home purchase. • A substantial share of this burden comes not from the price itself, but from the closing costs incurred at purchase. For the real estate transfer tax and notary and land registry fees alone, the median saving time amounts to 1.46 years. • Regional inequality is considerable: the time needed to save for the total upfront cash requirement varies sharply across districts and exceeds 20 years in Munich and its surrounding area, as well as in other particularly expensive growth regions. • A comparison shows that high overall burdens primarily reflect high prices. In the case of closing costs, however, additional differences arise from the variation in real estate transfer tax rates across the German states. • This entry barrier hits those who lack wealth and family support especially hard. Access to homeownership, and thus also the opportunity to build wealth, is unevenly distributed across regions. • If policymakers want to broaden access to homeownership, they should focus in particular on one-off closing costs. This is a policy lever that can be influenced more readily in the short run than the price level itself. |
| Keywords: | Housing affordability, Homeownership, Wealth inequality, Erschwinglichkeit von Wohneigentum, Wohneigentum, Vermögensungleichheit |
| JEL: | R21 R31 D31 G51 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:340035 |
| By: | Болат Айткен // Bolat Aitken (National Bank of Kazakhstan) |
| Abstract: | В исследовании анализируются детерминанты цен на рынке жилой недвижимости Республики Казахстан на основе данных объявлений о продаже квартир, размещенных на сайте krisha.kz. В качестве зависимой переменной используется логарифм цены за квадратный метр. Для оценки влияния характеристик объектов и локационных факторов применяются модели множественной линейной регрессии с робастными стандартными ошибками, что позволяет учесть наличие гетероскедастичности. Результаты показывают значимое влияние принадлежности города к числу городов республиканского значения, типа здания, высоты потолков, возраста дома, статуса квартиры как бывшего общежития и стадии завершенности строительства. Отдельный анализ для городов Астана и Алматы выявляет выраженные пространственные различия в формировании цен. В Астане ключевыми факторами являются расположение относительно берегов реки Ишим, близость к паркам и торгово-развлекательным центрам, а в Алматы - район города, положение относительно проспекта Аль-Фараби и расстояние до станции метро. Полученные результаты подтверждают важность учета как характеристик объектов недвижимости, так и локационных факторов при анализе цен на рынке жилья Казахстана. // The study analyzes the determinants of residential real estate prices in the Republic of Kazakhstan based on data from apartment sale listings posted on the website krisha.kz. The dependent variable used is the logarithm of the price per square meter. To assess the impact of property characteristics and locational factors, multiple linear regression models with robust standard errors are applied, which allows for accounting for the presence of heteroskedasticity. The results indicate a significant influence of a city’s status as a city of republican significance, building type, ceiling height, building age, the apartment’s status as a former dormitory, and the stage of construction completion. A separate analysis for the cities of Astana and Almaty reveals pronounced spatial differences in price formation. In Astana, key factors include proximity to the Ishim River banks, closeness to parks, and accessibility to shopping and entertainment centers; in Almaty, the relevant factors are the city district, location relative to Al-Farabi Avenue, and distance to the nearest metro station. The findings confirm the importance of considering both property characteristics and locational factors when analyzing residential housing prices in Kazakhstan. |
| Keywords: | рынок жилья, Казахстан, гедоническая модель, цены на недвижимость, housing market, Kazakhstan, hedonic model, real estate prices |
| JEL: | R3 R31 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aob:wpaper:72 |
| By: | Mehmet Selman Colak; Mehmet Emre Samci |
| Abstract: | Households in many emerging economies hold substantial alternative assets such as gold and cryptocurrencies, yet macro effects from these assets are difficult to explore due to measurement challenges. Exploiting Türkiye’s cross-provincial heterogeneity in gold saving and the exogenous 2023-2025 global gold rally, we study how gold wealth transmits to the housing market. Using a province-level administrative dataset within a novel approach to proxy the formal and informal gold tendency and a difference-in-differences (DID) design, we show that house prices rise significantly more in high-gold provinces, with an average 10% cumulative additional price increase due to the wealth effects from gold. Mechanism tests indicate a liquidity channel: the cash-purchase share increases, while credit-financed transactions do not. At the same time, secondary market sales fall, consistent with strengthened homeowner balance sheets tightening resale supply. A Bartik-style instrumental variable (IV) strategy based on passive gains supports causality. The findings highlight that alternative saving instruments can fuel real asset inflation through cash, suggesting that monetary and macroprudential policy frameworks focused solely on credit flows may miss important pressures in inflationary environments. |
| Keywords: | Gold, Cryptocurrencies, DID, Wealth effects, House prices, IV strategy |
| JEL: | C36 D12 E21 E26 E31 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2606 |
| By: | Dikgang, Johane; Magambo, Isaiah; Amadu, Festus O.; Magnier, Alexandre |
| Abstract: | During economic crises, urban policymakers must assess whether housing assistance helps prevent evictions. This study explores the link between housing assistance and eviction risk and how household financial capacity influences this relationship. Using 207, 203 observations from the Understanding America Study during COVID-19 and applying recursive bivariate probit models with instrumental variables, we find that housing assistance correlates with a 4.3% decrease in the likelihood of eviction (a 15.6% relative reduction). Notably, among households with credit access, this effect increases to 6.2%, or 44% more than the overall average. We observe a notable inverted- U pattern: households with one to two credit sources see reductions over 39%, whereas those with three or more sources experience much smaller effects, around 4.1%, or a nearly tenfold difference. This challenges the idea that greater financial access always enhances outcomes. The mechanism analysis suggests that this pattern reflects financial stability rather than over-leveraging: households with three or more credit sources tend to be more creditworthy and less dependent on assistance. The results hold across various estimation methods. Although our instrumental variable approach has limitations, the consistent heterogeneity patterns across multiple strategies increase confidence in the finding that housing assistance and moderate credit access work well together. These insights imply that housing assistance programs could be more effective when combined with financial inclusion efforts that focus on credit quality over quantity, with important implications for preventing urban displacement during economic downturns. |
| Keywords: | housing assistance, eviction prevention, financial capacity, instrumental variables, urban policy |
| JEL: | I38 R21 R28 C26 H53 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1735 |
| By: | Kenneth S. Rogoff; Yuanchen Yang |
| Abstract: | Real estate has long been central to China’s growth model, yet since 2018 its contribution has declined sharply, turning the sector from a key engine of expansion into a major drag on economic activity. While policy tightening might have triggered the downturn, it reflects deeper structural imbalances in a sector that, together with its upstream and downstream linkages and infrastructure, accounts for nearly one-third of aggregate demand. With housing comprising nearly 70 percent of household wealth, the ongoing price correction has generated sizable negative wealth effects, amplifying the contraction through depressed consumption, investment, and sentiment. We document the macroeconomic propagation of China’s real estate downturn and assess the risks of prolonged stagnation should the sector continue to deteriorate. To provide perspective, we compare China’s experience with Japan’s real estate collapse in the 1990s, uncovering striking parallels in investment dynamics and consumption responses despite profound institutional differences. Our findings highlight the importance of real-side channels, including alternative amplification mechanisms (in addition to banking), in generating persistent output losses following real estate busts. |
| JEL: | F39 G01 R3 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35054 |
| By: | Marco Giacoletti; Rawley Heimer; Edison Yu |
| Abstract: | Temporal focal points shape high-stakes economic outcomes. We investigate this proposition in the U.S. mortgage market by documenting novel within-month patterns in lending. Using confidential Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data, we show that applications arrive smoothly throughout the month, yet approximately half of all originations occur in the final week. The Black approval gap, 2.4 percentage points unexplained at the start of the month, narrows to zero by month’s end. Underperforming loan officers and high-turnover lending institutions amplify this convergence. Demand-side factors, such as borrower financial constraints, also increase end-of-month volume, but the sensitivity does not vary meaningfully by applicant group |
| Date: | 2026–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:102981 |