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on Housing and Real Estate |
| By: | Kishor, N. Kundan |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a framework to estimate U.S. housing market slack-the deviation of inventory from equilibrium levels needed for stability. We measure slack as a common cyclical component of existing and new home inventories that drives house prices through a housing Phillips curve. Results show a statistically significant inverse relationship between slack and price growth, with persistent negative slack since 2010 and extreme tightness during the pandemic. A shock to the estimated housing market slack generates substantial, lasting effects on house prices and rents, with rental impacts peaking 24 months after initial shocks. |
| Keywords: | Housing Market Slack, Housing Phillips Curve, Natural Level of Housing Inventory, State Space Model. |
| JEL: | E00 E31 E37 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127473 |
| By: | Gonzalez-Pampillon, Nicolas; Jofre-Monseny, Jordi |
| Abstract: | While the literature has extensively studied the impact of immigration shocks on cities, we know surprisingly little about how cities absorb large immigration waves. This paper helps fill that gap by analyzing the neighborhood-level population dynamics among Spanish-born residents, non-EU15 immigrants, and EU15 immigrants in Spanish cities during the major immigration wave of 2001–2009. Drawing on the monocentric city model, and within a context of path-dependent urban development with outward city growth, we explore how different population groups sort spatially within cities. Higher-income Spanish-born residents tend to settle in more distant suburbs to access larger housing. In contrast, younger and highly educated EU15 immigrants concentrate in central neighborhoods to benefit from urban amenities. Initially, lower-income non-EU15 immigrants settled in central areas with deteriorated housing stock, but over time they increasingly moved to mid-distance neighborhoods with small dwellings built between 1950 and 1970. |
| Keywords: | cities internal structure; housing characteristics; immigration; neighborhoods |
| JEL: | R23 R30 R58 |
| Date: | 2026–02–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137605 |
| By: | Esteve, Vicente; Blanco-Arroyo, Omar; Prats, Maria A. |
| Abstract: | Purpose The aim of this paper is to apply the methodology developed by Evripidou et al. (2022) to assess the co-explosivity between housing credit and housing prices in the Spanish economy from 1971 to 2024. Design/methodology/approach First, the authors use recursive unit root tests for explosiveness, proposed by Phillips et al. (2011) and Phillips et al. (2015a), to investigate whether nominal house prices (NHP) and housing credit exhibit bubble-like behavior at any point in the time series. Second, they apply the methodology of Evripidou et al. (2022) to assess co-explosiveness between housing credit and house prices. Thus, this study not only analyzes the univariate explosiveness of these series but also explores their interdependence. A (stable) asynchronous coexplosiveness would permit the construction of early warning indicators for upcoming explosiveness in housing markets. Findings First, to examine explosiveness in individual series, they use recursive unit root tests proposed by Phillips et al. (2011) and Phillips et al. (2015a) to assess whether NHP and housing credit exhibit bubble-like behavior. These tests identify periods of exuberance in 1988–1991 and 1992–1993 (coinciding with economic expansion before the 1992 Barcelona Olympics and Seville Universal Exposition) and 2001–2008 (preceding the subprime mortgage crisis and the “Spanish housing boom”). Second, regarding co-explosivity, the KPSS test for co-explosivity reveals no co-explosivity when house prices lead housing credit, as the null hypothesis of stationarity is rejected across all lags (−5 to +5 years). However, a significant co-explosivity pattern emerges when housing credit leads house prices, with a stable bubble relationship observed for leads of 2–5 years. The strongest relationship occurs at a 4-year lead, indicating that credit dynamics precede and drive housing price bubbles. This finding is central to their analysis, highlighting the critical role of credit in triggering housing price bubbles. It underscores the importance of addressing the leading effect of credit, which is essential for effective policy and market interventions aimed at mitigating real estate bubbles. The empirical evidence, particularly at the 4-year lead, reveals a feedback mechanism in which credit growth drives subsequent price increases. Given that their econometric analysis identifies credit dynamics as a key driver of housing bubbles, policy interventions should encompass macroprudential and microprudential measures, alongside fiscal and structural policies. Originality/value This paper examines the interaction between housing prices and housing credit in Spain from 1971 to 2024, contributing to the empirical literature on the Spanish economy in two ways. First, they use recursive unit root tests for explosiveness, proposed by Phillips et al. (2011) and Phillips et al. (2015a), to investigate whether NHP and housing credit exhibit bubble-like behavior at any point in the time series. Second, they apply the methodology of Evripidou et al. (2022) to assess co-explosiveness between housing credit and house prices. Thus, this study not only analyzes the univariate explosiveness of these series but also explores their interdependence. A (stable) asynchronous coexplosiveness would permit the construction of early warning indicators for upcoming explosiveness in housing markets. |
| Keywords: | Co-explosivity; Explosive behavior; Housing market; Mortgages loans |
| JEL: | C22 E31 E44 E51 G21 R31 |
| Date: | 2026–02–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137513 |
| By: | Neelu Panth |
| Abstract: | Researchers and community development experts are bringing attention to the issue of housing deterioration. |
| Date: | 2025–02–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00100:102753 |
| By: | Alicia Aguilar (Banco de España, Madrid); Adriana Lojschová (National Bank of Slovakia); Carlos Canizares Martınez (Banque Centrale du Luxembourg, Luxembourg) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the effects of standard monetary policy shocks on housing and other macro variables in Slovakia, a CESEE country. For that purpose, we use a non-linear local projection model which uncovers asymmetries in these effects around three different dimensions: high versus low economic growth, interest rates and inflation. The main findings in this study are as follows. First, we often find no evidence of standard monetary policy eliciting a contractionary response in house prices or housing investment. Second, evidence is weakest during recessions and periods of low interest rates or low inflation. Third, these findings may be linked to the inability of monetary policy to trigger significant contractionary effects on household lending, which in turn may be linked to the effective lower bound on interest rates, the predominance of fixed-rate mortgages in Slovakia, or interaction between monetary and macroprudential policy. We also provide a discussion on the possible country characteristics that might drive these results and policy implications. |
| JEL: | C32 C36 E42 E52 E58 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svk:wpaper:1134 |
| By: | Daniel L. Dench; Kelly Lifchez; Jason M. Lindo; Jancy Ling Liu |
| Abstract: | We estimate the market value of reproductive rights as capitalized into U.S. housing markets. We do so using a synthetic difference-in-differences design to evaluate the effects of total abortion bans following the 2022 Dobbs decision, and drawing on housing market indices from Zillow and vacancy rate data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey. The results indicate that total abortion bans reduced rents by an average of 2.2% from July 2022 through June 2025, with the effect reaching 4.0% in the most recent year. Over the same horizon, bans increased rental vacancy rates by an average of 1.1 percentage points, with the effect reaching 1.8 percentage points in the most recent year. Estimates for home values and homeowner vacancy rates are similar in magnitude but less precise. |
| JEL: | I18 J13 K23 R21 R23 R31 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34921 |
| By: | Pierre Monnin (Council on Economic Policies and Centre for Economic Transition Expertise); à dám Banai (Magyar Nemzeti Bank); KristÄ«na BojÄ re (Latvijas Banka); Ján Klacso (National Bank of Slovakia); Reiner Martin (National Bank of Slovakia); János Szakács (Magyar Nemzeti Bank) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we explore how borrower-based measures (BBMs) can be adjusted to provide additional funding for housing-related energy-efficiency investments without compromising financial stability objectives. We first show that lower energy costs and higher house price values resulting from renovation work allows an easing of borrowing limits while keeping loan risk metrics unchanged. We then focus on three recent easing measures implemented in Slovakia, Hungary, and Latvia and assess their effectiveness using a bank survey. We find that these policy changes did not significantly affect banks’ credit portfolio risk profile and thus financial stability. At the same time, they did not generate a significant increase in loans for energy-efficient investments. We thus suggest combining BBM adjustments with other policy measures to improve energy-efficiency in real estate. |
| JEL: | C8 E44 E50 G21 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svk:wpaper:1137 |
| By: | Angus K. Foulis; Jonathon Hazell; Atif R. Mian; Belinda Tracey |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates how rate cuts increase consumption, via debt and asset prices. Using administrative UK data on mortgages and consumption, we exploit the expiry of fixed-rate mortgages to construct six million household-level natural experiments. A 1pp reduction in mortgage rates raises consumption by 3% in the following 6 months. Using plausibly exogenous variation in how house prices respond to rate cuts, we show that consumption increases mostly because households borrow against higher house prices; lower debt service after rate cuts matters less. These results suggest that in large part, monetary policy affects consumption through asset prices and borrowing |
| JEL: | E0 E20 G5 G51 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34911 |
| By: | Olivier De Jonghe (European Central Bank); Konstantıns Benkovskis (Latvijas Banka); Karolis Bielskis (Bank of Lithuania); Diana Bonfim (Banco de Portugal; Católica Lisbon); Margherita Bottero (Banca d’Italia); Tamás Briglevics (Central Bank of Hungary); Martin Cesnak (Národná banka Slovenska); Mantas Dirma (Bank of Lithuania); Marina Emiris (National Bank of Belgium); Pálma Filep-Mosberger (Central Bank of Hungary); Valentin Jouvanceau (Bank of Lithuania); Nicholas Kaiser (Central Bank of Ireland); Dmitry Khametshin (Banco de España); Tibor Lalinskı (Národná banka Slovenska); Viola M. Grolmusz (Central Bank of Hungary); Laura Moretti (Central Bank of Ireland); Arturs Janis Nikitins (Latvijas Banka); Angelo Nunnari (Banca d’Italia); Maria Rodriguez-Moreno (Banco de España); Elitsa Stefanova (European Central Bank); Lajos Tamás Szabó (Central Bank of Hungary); Karlis Vilerts (Latvijas Banka); Sujiao Emma Zhao (Banco de Portugal) |
| Abstract: | We study heterogeneity in households’ credit across nine European countries (Belgium, Spain, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal, and Slovakia) during 2022-2024 using granular credit register data. We first document substantial between- and withincountry variation in mortgage and consumer lending by borrower age, loan maturity, and interest rate fixation. We then quantify the pass-through of the ECB’s recent tightening cycle to household borrowing costs, and assess its heterogeneous impact across households. Pass-through is nearly complete for mortgages (around 0.9) but considerably weaker for consumer credit (around 0.4). While mortgage pass-through is relatively homogeneous across countries, consumer credit shows pronounced cross-country differences that cannot be explained by borrower or loan characteristics. Younger households face stronger mortgage pass-through but weaker consumer credit pass-through relative to older borrowers, and longer maturities areassociated with stronger pass-through in both credit markets. |
| JEL: | E52 G21 D14 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svk:wpaper:1131 |
| By: | Ransom, Tyler (University of Oklahoma) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a non-technical summary of recent research on why people stay put rather than move, even in the face of adverse local economic shocks. I compare three frameworks for understanding migration: the moving costs model, the spatial frictions model, and a newer approach called the SPACE model. The models differ in their explanations of why individuals stay put. The moving costs model emphasizes financial or psychological barriers to migration, the spatial frictions model emphasizes lack of information or job opportunities, and the SPACE model emphasizes persistent preferences for one’s current location. While the SPACE model best explains observed migration patterns, all three mechanisms operate simultaneously in practice. Therefore, successful regional policies should address all three: reducing barriers, providing information, and building community ties that make locations persistently attractive. |
| Keywords: | migration, moving costs, spatial frictions, place-based policy, regional economics |
| JEL: | J61 J68 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18410 |
| By: | Julius Berger; Felix Creutzig; Waldemar Marz |
| Abstract: | EV adoption in emerging economies (lower-middle income, fast urbanization and income growth) mitigates emissions of greenhouse gases and local pollutants from gasoline consumption, but at the same time exacerbates urban sprawl. This implies longer driving distances for commuting and non-work trips and higher consumption of floor space per capita and related energy demand for cooling/heating. We model scenarios of full electrification of transport in China, India, Brazil, and Nigeria until 2060, accounting for income growth, population growth, urbanization, public-transport shares, and power-mix scenarios for each country. On average in 2040, 209 percent of the direct carbon emission savings from EV adoption are offset by additional sprawl through increasing VKT (22 percent) and growing energy demand in the building sector (187 percent). Additional urban sprawl from EV adoption leads to the development of 1.2 million square kilometers until 2060. This is equivalent to 32 percent of arable land in 2024. |
| Keywords: | EV adoption, urban sprawl, emerging economies |
| JEL: | Q54 Q48 R14 R41 O18 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12531 |