|
on Housing and Real Estate |
| By: | Ancheta, Jenica A.; Ballesteros, Marife M.; Ramos, Tatum P. |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effects of urban revitalization strategies in Metro Manila, focusing on their implications for housing adequacy. Using geospatial and statistical analyses, the research integrates GIS-based mapping and demographic data to trace patterns of housing growth, land value changes, and spatial inequities associated with upzoning and urban renewal in Metro Manila. Findings reveal that revitalization projects have significantly transformed Metro Manila’s urban landscape, driving high-density mixed-use developments and increasing land values. However, these gains are spatially uneven, with nearby areas constrained by inadequate infrastructure and environmental risks experiencing minimal growth. While revitalization improved housing quality and expanded the residential stock, the supply of affordable housing remains concentrated in peripheral regions, reinforcing spatial inequalities and gentrification pressures. The study underscores the need for inclusive urban planning through policies such as inclusionary mixed-income zoning, transit-oriented development, and community land trust strategies that promote equitable urban growth. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | cities, urban revitalization, zoning, housing, Geospatial analysis |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-40 |
| By: | Bäckman, Claes; D'Lima, Walter; Khorunzhina, Natalia |
| Abstract: | We show that high-income buyers earn higher capital gains on housing using detailed transaction data from Denmark. Geographic location statistically accounts for nearly all the difference, with little role for aggregate market timing, property type, or other buyer characteristics. This finding is consistent with income-based sorting, whereby higher-income households systematically sort into locations with persistently higher price growth. We test whether credit conditions shape access to locations with higher house-price growth and find no detectable change in buyer composition by income rank around major credit expansions and contractions. |
| Keywords: | Housing, wealth inequality, affordability, spatial sorting, inequality |
| JEL: | D31 G51 R31 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:336814 |
| By: | Sangyup Choi (Yonsei University); Junghyuk Lee (Bank of Korea) |
| Abstract: | Leveraging Korea's unique jeonse system-a lump-sum lease arrangement that enables inference of intrinsic housing values-and urban district-level monthly-frequency data, this paper proposes a novel method to decompose housing price fluctuations into supply, residential demand, and speculative demand shocks. We find speculative demand accounts for nearly 50% of cumulative housing price growth in Korea and over 60%in the Seoul metropolitan area. Importantly, housing booms driven by residential demand increase regional consumption, employment, and output ("good booms"), while those driven by speculation reduce them ("bad booms"). Using comprehensive quarterly individual panel data, we show that only speculative demand shocks trigger excessive household leverage, creating a debt overhang that explains these differential aggregate effects. While monetary easing significantly amplifies speculative demand, an equivalent tightening fails to produce a comparable contraction. Conversely, macroprudential tools-such as lower loan-to-value limits-curb speculative surges more effectively, yet they also risk dampening residential demand. |
| Keywords: | House prices; Good booms and bad booms; High-frequency identification; Sign-restriction approach; Jeonse; Debt overhang; Policy mix |
| JEL: | E50 G10 R30 R21 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yon:wpaper:2026rwp-275 |
| By: | Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt; Stephan Heblich; Tobias Seidel; Fan Yin |
| Abstract: | We construct a new micro-geographic commercial rent index for Germany to study the capitalization of agglomeration economies into floor space prices. In large local labor markets, commercial rents decline by -17% per kilometer from the central business district, compared to 13% for residential rents, reflecting stronger agglomeration benefits at the center. Commercial rents in central business districts increase with local labor market size at an elasticity of 15%, implying that wage responses capture only about half of the agglomeration effect on total factor productivity. |
| Keywords: | Agglomeration, commercial rent, prime locations, spatial equilibrium, total factor productivity |
| JEL: | L2 R3 |
| Date: | 2026–02–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0091 |
| By: | Alberto Hidalgo; Francisco J. Velázquez |
| Abstract: | Short-term rental (STR) platforms such as Airbnb have reshaped urban and tourism economies worldwide. By lowering transaction costs and enabling peer-to-peer accommodation at scale, they have expanded visitor capacity beyond traditional hotel districts and channeled tourism demand directly into residential neighborhoods (Zervas et al., 2017; Farronato and Fradkin, 2022). This transformation a!ects multiple urban markets simultaneously (housing, local economic activity, tourist accommodation, and neighborhood dynamics), making STR one of the most consequential developments in contemporary urban policy. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2026-02 |
| By: | Brenzel-Weiss, Janosch; Koeniger, Winfried; Valladares-Esteban, Arnau |
| Abstract: | We calibrate a lifecycle portfolio-choice model of homeowners facing uninsurable income risk to show that tax deductions for mortgage interest payments and voluntary pension contributions have sizable effects on household portfolios and macroprudential risks. The deductions reduce the after-tax cost of debt and increase the after-tax return of pension savings so that the mortgage incidence increases and portfolios shift from home equity and liquid assets towards pension savings. Because the consumption responses to a house-price decline are heterogeneous, the distribution of household debt shapes the quantitative effect of the tax deductions on the homeowners' resilience after a house price bust. |
| Keywords: | Mortgage amortization, Tax incentives, Household consumption, Portfolio choice, Housing busts, Economic stability, Macroprudential policy |
| JEL: | D14 D15 D31 E21 G11 G21 H24 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfswop:336755 |
| By: | Kishor, N. Kundan |
| Abstract: | We propose a present value model with structural breaks to explain why U.S. house prices remain persistently high relative to rents—a pattern that standard time-invariant models struggle to capture. Our model uses quarterly data from 1975 to 2023 and incorporates the time-varying volatility of the net discount factor as a key priced risk factor. We find five distinct periods with very different pricing patterns. During the Great Moderation (1981-2001), the usual textbook logic held: higher expected rent growth pushed valuations up, while higher discount rates pulled them down. But in the stagflation era of the late 1970s and again in the recent period (2016-2023), these relationships reversed-higher expected rent growth actually lowered valuations. The two big housing booms of the 2000s and the recent period arose through different forces: the 2000s boom saw prices break free from rents, while the recent period showed an unusually strong reaction to discount rates and a new positive role for volatility, suggesting that uncertainty itself made housing more attractive. These shifting patterns show that what once looked like model failures are better understood as signs of changing market regimes. |
| Keywords: | Present Value Model of Housing, Price-Rent Ratio, Structural Break, Volatility Models. |
| JEL: | C32 E44 G12 R21 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127472 |
| By: | Maarten Van Besien (-) |
| Abstract: | Automated valuation models (AVMs) are widely used for large-scale residential rent appraisal, yet standard models do not provide predictive uncertainty measures with guaranteed out-ofsample coverage at prespecified nominal levels, creating risks for institutional decision-making in valuation, risk management, and policy design. Using a transaction-level dataset covering the Flemish rental market in Belgium, we study AVM performance and uncertainty quantification in a large-scale, heterogeneous, and feature-poor setting, where only location, property type, energy performance, number of bedrooms, and rent prices are observed. We show that industry-standard point-prediction accuracy can be achieved by exploiting non-linear spatial structure using coarse geospatial units such as boroughs. For uncertainty quantification, we compare ensemble quantile regression and Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP). While both improve empirical coverage, ICP is preferred as it guarantees finite-sample marginal coverage without distributional assumptions at substantially lower computational cost. Conditioning ICP calibration on bedroom count (Mondrian ICP) yields the largest efficiency gains, reducing 95% coverage prediction interval width by up to 5.3% relative to absolute residual split conformal prediction. Overall, our results demonstrate that valuation uncertainty can be materially reduced in large-scale, feature-poor housing data with minimal additional modeling complexity. |
| Keywords: | Conformal Prediction, Automated Rent Valuation, Rental Uncertainty Quantification |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:26/1136 |
| By: | Torsten Ehlers; Mathias Hoffmann; Alexander Raabe |
| Abstract: | House prices co-move considerably across countries. We show how non-US global banks and their exposure to US dollar funding conditions help explain this comovement. When the dollar appreciates, mortgage lending and house prices decrease more in borrower countries whose non-US creditor banks are more exposed to dollar funding conditions. As US dollar funding conditions vary, borrowing country pairs with higher joint exposure to US dollar funding conditions via their non-US creditor banks exhibit a higher synchronization of mortgage credit and house price growth. We capture the exposure to dollar funding conditions by the bilateral treasury basis between the currency of the non-US global creditor banks' nationality and the US dollar, a choice that we motivate in a simple value-at-risk model. Our results identify a novel international spillover channel of US dollar funding conditions. Because it works through heterogenous dollar funding exposures among creditors, this new channel is neither linked to common-lender exposures nor to currency mismatches on borrower countries' balance sheets, typically associated with the financial channel of the exchange-rate. |
| Keywords: | house prices, synchronization, US dollar funding, dollar cycle, US treasury basis, convenience yield, capital flows, global banks, global banking network |
| JEL: | F34 F36 G15 G21 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1332 |
| By: | Vergara-Perucich, Francisco; Aguirre-Nuñez, Carlos |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how housing tokenization is discursively framed in Chile's digital public sphere, assessing whether it promotes affordability or reinforces financialization. Using a methodology that combines natural language processing, topic modeling, sentiment analysis, and semantic network analysis, the study analyzes content from 34 websites - including fintech startups, media outlets, and real estate firms - scraped and processed in R. Results show that tokenization is largely portrayed through a techno-optimistic lens focused on investment, trust, and digital innovation. Sentiment analysis highlights dominant emotional tones of "trust" and "anticipation, " while topic modeling identifies four themes: return performance, platform ecosystems, asset commodification, and user empowerment. These narratives, however, tend to obscure critical perspectives on equity and governance. Despite limitations related to data bias and cultural nuance, the study offers a replicable method for analyzing technological discourses and raises important questions about the policy implications of financial innovation in emerging markets. |
| Keywords: | financial innovation, blockchain, real estate, token, financialization |
| JEL: | G23 R31 O33 O16 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iedlwp:336691 |
| By: | Kuletskaya, Dasha |
| Abstract: | What is the source of real estate value? In this paper, I trace the development of the Elbtower skyscraper in Hamburg - from its origins in the 1997 architectural vision for HafenCity to the construction halt following the 2023 insolvency of the Signa Group. Through an analysis of the "political dramaturgy" (Oomen, Hoffman, and Hajer 2022) behind the development, I argue that real estate value is not an inherent metric rooted in objective material characteristics, but is instead "performed" (Callon 1998) through the strategic management of stakeholders' "imagined futures" (Beckert 2016). In this process, the symbolic power of iconic architecture plays a crucial role, enabling developers to bypass conventional valuation methods based on market comparison and claim monopoly on the "rent of form" (Arantes 2019). In the paper, I show that imaginaries of urban future that are produced by architects and planners function as market devices - discursive assemblages mobilized by powerful stakeholders to socially construct real estate value. In conclusion, I argue that the performance of real estate value is ultimately a political project, in which state actors play a central role. |
| Abstract: | Wodurch entsteht Immobilienwert? Dieser Beitrag zeichnet die Entwicklung des Hochhauses Elbtower in Hamburg nach - von den ersten architektonischen Visionen für die HafenCity im Jahr 1997 bis zum Baustopp nach der Insolvenz der Signa-Gruppe im Jahr 2023. Durch die Analyse der "politischen Dramaturgie" (Oomen, Hoffman, and Hajer 2022) hinter der Projektentwicklung zeige ich, dass Immobilienwert keine objektive, in den materiellen Eigenschaften des Objekts verankerte Größe ist, sondern - im Sinne Callons (1998) - performativ erzeugt wird: Er entsteht durch das strategische Management der kollektiven "imaginierten Zukunft" (Beckert 2016). Die symbolische Macht ikonischer Architektur spielt dabei eine entscheidende Rolle, da sie es Projektentwicklern ermöglicht, herkömmliche Bewertungsmethoden auf der Grundlage von Marktvergleichen zu umgehen und ein Monopol auf die "Formrente" (Arantes 2019) zu beanspruchen. Die in der Architektur entwickelten Visionen urbaner Zukunft fungieren als Marktinstrumente - als diskursive Gefüge, die von einflussreichen Akteuren mobilisiert werden, um Immobilienwert sozial zu konstruieren. Abschließend argumentiere ich, dass die performative Erzeugung von Immobilienwert letztlich ein politisches Projekt ist, in dem staatliche Akteure eine zentrale Rolle spielen. |
| Keywords: | Elbtower, iconic architecture, imagined futures, performativity, real estate value, ikonische Architektur, imaginierte Zukunft, Immobilienwert, Performativität |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mpifgd:336771 |