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on Housing and Real Estate |
| By: | Manu García; Carlos Garriga |
| Abstract: | An analysis of housing and household income data from 2000 to 2023 finds that in most U.S. counties, the cost of buying a house has outpaced local incomes. |
| Keywords: | home prices; housing affordability |
| Date: | 2026–02–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:102437 |
| By: | Buchholz, Maximilian; Kemeny, Tom; Randolph, Gregory; Storper, Michael |
| Abstract: | A popular view holds that declining housing affordability stems from regulations that restrict new supply, and that deregulation will spur sufficient market-rate construction to meaningfully improve affordability. We argue that this ‘deregulationist’ view rests upon flawed assumptions. Through empirical simulation, we show that even a dramatic, deregulation-driven supply expansion would take decades to generate widespread affordability in high-cost U.S. markets. We advance an alternative explanation of declining affordability grounded in demand structure and geography: uneven demand growth – driven by rising interpersonal and interregional inequality – is the primary driver of declining affordability in recent decades. For cost-burdened households, trickle-down benefits from deregulation will be insufficient and too slow. |
| Date: | 2026–01–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:95trz_v1 |
| By: | Mesbah Fathy Sharaf (University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada); Abdelhalem Mahmoud Shahen (Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University (IMSIU)); Mansour Abdullateef Alharaib (Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University (IMSIU)) |
| Abstract: | This study traces the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on real estate price dynamics in Saudi Arabia through a sectoral analysis of residential, commercial, and agricultural markets. Using an Interrupted Time Series (ITS) approach on quarterly data from 2015Q1 to 2024Q3, it identifies structural shifts in price behavior before, during, and after the pandemic. The model integrates key macroeconomic variables such as inflation, unemployment, and SAIBOR, and explores sector-specific responses. Results show that prices fell across all sectors during the pandemic, with the steepest drop in commercial real estate. Residential and commercial prices rebounded post-pandemic, while agricultural prices remained relatively stable. Government-led housing initiatives and infrastructure spending supported recovery, especially in the residential sector, whereas interest rate cuts eased the downturn but were less influential. Inflation and unemployment, however, continued to suppress demand and affordability. Robustness checks confirm the consistency of results under alternative specifications. The study underscores the importance of tailored policy measures, such as expanding affordable housing and regulating commercial lease terms. It also highlights the role of inflation and labor market stability in shaping long-term real estate outcomes. This is among the first studies to provide sectordisaggregated evidence on COVID-19 s real estate effects in a Gulf economy. |
| Date: | 2025–07–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1781 |
| By: | G. Jacob Blackwood |
| Abstract: | Combining confidential business-level microdata with housing and banking data, I document large and persistent effects of local house prices on employment at small businesses, and particularly young businesses, during the Great Recession. I show that the effect on entry is important for explaining the disproportionate effect on young businesses, while young firm exit is also disproportionately affected. I then explore the channels through which house prices affect business outcomes. I use survey data to show that reliance on either personal assets or home equity is associated with increased sensitivity to house prices. I then use local bank balance sheet information to show both young and old firms are sensitive to local credit shocks, with some evidence of a larger effect on young businesses. I develop a macroeconomic model that is consistent with these findings where house prices work through two channels: a bank credit supply channel and a housing collateral channel. |
| Keywords: | Firm Dynamics, House Prices, Credit Supply, Business Cycles |
| JEL: | E44 D22 D25 R31 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:26-03 |
| By: | Raj Chetty; Rebecca Diamond; Thomas B. Foster; Lawrence Katz; Sonya R. Porter; Matthew Staiger; Laura Tach |
| Abstract: | We study whether low-economic-mobility neighborhoods can be transformed into high-mobility areas by analyzing the HOPE VI program, which invested $17 billion to revitalize 262 distressed public housing developments. We estimate the program’s impacts using a matched difference-in-differences design, comparing outcomes in revitalized developments to observably similar control developments using anonymized tax records. HOPE VI reduced neighborhood poverty rates by attracting higher-income families to revitalized neighborhoods, but had no causal impact on the earnings of adults living in public housing units. Children raised in revitalized public housing units earn more, are more likely to attend college, and are less likely to be incarcerated. Using a movers exposure design and sibling comparisons, we show that these improvements were driven by changes in neighborhoods’ causal effects on children’s outcomes. The improvements in neighborhood causal effects were driven in large part by changes in social interaction: HOPE VI increased interaction between public housing residents and peers in surrounding neighborhoods and increased earnings more for subgroups with higher-income peers. Many low-income families in the U.S. currently live in neighborhoods that are as socially isolated as the HOPE VI developments were prior to revitalization. We conclude that it is feasible to create high-opportunity neighborhoods and that connecting socially isolated areas to surrounding communities is a cost-effective approach to doing so. |
| JEL: | R38 I38 J62 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:26-02 |
| By: | Diego Ascarza-Mendoza (School of Government and Public Transformation, Tecnológico de Monterrey); Tomás Rosé (Analysis Group) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the welfare effects of expanding access to standard mortgage financing for factory-built homes. We begin by outlining the regulatory barriers that prevent many low- and middle-income U.S. households from using traditional mortgage credit in this segment. Compared with chattel loans—the primary financing instrument for manufactured homes—mortgages feature longer maturities, lower interest rates, and tax deductibility of interest payments. To evaluate the welfare consequences of equalizing these conditions, we develop a dynamic life-cycle model of housing decisions that highlights a key trade-off: manufactured homes are more affordable than site-built homes but face less favorable financing terms. The model is calibrated to match both the overall homeownership rate and the distribution of site-built versus manufactured homes in the U.S. South. Our results show that even under a conservative reform—granting tax deductibility alone, while holding interest rates and maturities fixed—welfare gains are substantial, equivalent to a 2% permanent increase in real income, or a 28% increase in lifetime income in present discounted value terms. |
| Keywords: | Factory Built Homes, Mortgages, Tax Deductions |
| JEL: | D6 E2 H2 R2 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gnt:wpaper:23 |
| By: | Southern, Billy |
| Abstract: | Accurately delineating urban and suburban space has become increasingly difficult. Identifying each setting has long relied on capturing where population density and commuting flows differ, with research and policy often operating with binary measures to separate city from suburb. But as urban and suburban spaces expand, age, and reshape, places emerge that do not definitively fit this binary imagination. The uncertainty this generates creates complexities in claims made about urban and suburban space, but it is rarely addressed within empirical classifications. This research focuses on the uncertainty that dichotomous categorizations of place hide. Through a comparison of seven extant definitions of urban and suburban, I identify places that sit reliably in one category or another; but I also highlight the areas of uncertainty and instability. Results demonstrate that there are ‘stable’ urban and suburban areas, but a spatially uncertain transitional space exists where the nature of the landscape is unclear. By delineating these transitional spaces as a third category, I support research and policy that aims to speak clearly about changes in urban and suburban places, while also opening a conversation about how places might move between these two canonical definitions. |
| Date: | 2026–01–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:675x8_v1 |
| By: | Roberto Garrone |
| Abstract: | A growing share of the existing real estate stock exhibits persistent underperformance that can no longer be explained by cyclical market phases or inadequate maintenance alone. In many cases, technically recoverable assets located in non-marginal contexts fail to generate economic value consistent with the capital immobilized. This condition reflects a structural misalignment between intended use and effective demand rather than episodic market weakness, and calls for a decision framework capable of integrating value, risk, complexity, and irreversibility in strategic use selection. This study proposes a decision-analytic framework for the ex-ante selection of intended use in real estate redevelopment processes. The framework integrates real-options logic on irreversibility and managerial flexibility with a multi-criteria decision-analysis structure, enabling comparative evaluation of expected economic value, market and operational risk, technical and managerial complexity, and time-to-income. By treating redevelopment primarily as a problem of strategic option selection rather than design or financial optimization, the framework operationalizes option value preservation through disciplined ex-ante screening. Illustrative cases demonstrate how this integration of real options reasoning and MCDA reduces over-complexification and misalignment across different asset types and urban contexts. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2601.22166 |
| By: | Neumann, Uwe |
| Abstract: | The literature on regional agglomeration suggests that local economic revitalisation is likely to involve a rise in local wages. In the context of urban regeneration, community-oriented policy envisages to improve prosperity among the residential population of deprived neighbourhoods. Yet, due to an ever-increasing preference of households to reside at central locations this policy may spur gentrification if outsiders are attracted to new jobs and upgraded housing environments. Using Germany as a case study, the analysis explores whether local economies have received a boost that may have affected household sorting and local household income during the past two decades. The study reveals no considerable shift in sorting that would indicate gentrification. With a view to income over the past decade local households with a middle or higher income in programme areas have kept up with overall income growth and lowincome households have experienced zero growth but appear to have thereby performed slightly better than their counterparts elsewhere. Moderate funding of urban regeneration in combination with support to local communities is not capable of providing a remarkable boost, but it may bring about improvements for the residential population without accelerating gentrification. |
| Abstract: | Die regionalökonomische Literatur legt nahe, dass ein regionaler Wirtschaftsaufschwung mit örtlichen Lohnsteigerungen verbunden ist. Im Kontext der Stadterneuerung zielen lokale Fördermaßnahmen darauf ab, den Wohlstand der Wohnbevölkerung in benachteiligten Stadtvierteln zu verbessern. Aufgrund einer wachsenden Präferenz der Haushalte für eine zentrale Wohnlage kann diese Politik jedoch eine Gentrifizierung herbeiführen bzw. verstärken, wenn Außenstehende von neuen Arbeitsplätzen und einem verbesserten Wohnumfeld angezogen werden. Am Fallbeispiel Deutschland untersucht die Studie, ob im Zuge von Stadterneuerungsmaßnahmen in den vergangenen beiden Jahrzehnten Änderungen der Haushaltsstruktur und des lokalen Haushaltseinkommens in den Fördergebieten eingetreten sind. Die Analyse zeigt, dass kein nennenswerter Wandel der Haushaltsstruktur aufgetreten ist, der auf eine Gentrifizierung hindeuten würde. Mit Blick auf die Entwicklung der Einkommen in den vergangenen zehn Jahren wird festgestellt, dass lokale Haushalte mit mittlerem oder höherem Einkommen in den Programmgebieten mit dem allgemeinen Einkommenswachstum Schritt gehalten haben, während Haushalte mit niedrigem Einkommen kein Wachstum verzeichneten, damit aber offenbar etwas besser abschnitten als ihre Pendants in anderen Gebieten. Eine moderate Finanzierung der Stadterneuerung in Kombination mit der Unterstützung des lokalen Gemeinwesens kann zwar keinen bemerkenswerten Aufschwung bewirken, aber sie kann zu Verbesserungen für die Wohnbevölkerung führen, ohne dabei eine zur Verdrängung ärmerer Haushalte führende Gentrifizierung zu beschleunigen. |
| Keywords: | urban policy, local economies, household income, gentrification |
| JEL: | C21 C23 O18 R23 R31 R58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:335906 |
| By: | Alessandra Fogli; Veronica Guerrieri; Mark Ponder; Marta Prato |
| Abstract: | We study the macroeconomic effects of neighborhood-specific policies in a general equilibrium model of a city with endogenous residential sorting and educational investment. A key feature of the model is the presence of endogenous local spillovers that depend on the distribution of families across neighborhoods. We analyze three policies: a housing-voucher policy inspired by the MTO program, which enables poor families to relocate to low-poverty neighborhoods; a place-based transfer (PBT) policy that provides monetary transfers to families in poor neighborhoods; and a place-based investment (PBI) policy that invests resources in local institutions, such as public schools, to directly enhance local spillovers. We find that the MTO policy generates substantial income gains for children of recipient families, but scaling up the program dampens these gains and induces large welfare losses for non-recipients. By contrast, the PBT policy delivers larger average welfare gains but is less effective in reducing inequality and segregation. Finally, the PBI policy produces smaller short-run effects but, over time, resolves the trade-off by raising average welfare while simultaneously reducing inequality, lowering segregation, and improving intergenerational mobility. |
| JEL: | E24 I2 O15 R2 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34754 |
| By: | Maalsen, Sophia; Clarke, Andrew; Daniel, Claire; Floreani, Samantha; Humphry, Justine; Martin, Chris; Przhedetsky, Lina; Rogers, Dallas; Sadowski, Jathan; Soundararaj, Balamurugan |
| Abstract: | This research explores how property technology (PropTech) is used in Australia’s private and social rental sectors to collect and process applicant and tenant personal information. It examines the implications of this for individuals and housing access, and whether existing policy and legal frameworks are fit-for-purpose. About one-third of Australian households rent. PropTech’s role in mediating access to housing is increasing. It is being used for applicant screening, advertisement targeting and accessing tenant ‘blacklist’ databases. The digital collection and use of personal information raises concerns about data security, privacy, and discrimination. There is an urgent need to better understand PropTech’s role and impact and ensure Australia’s policy and regulatory frameworks are protecting renters. |
| Date: | 2026–01–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:nj64b_v1 |