nep-hre New Economics Papers
on Housing and Real Estate
Issue of 2026–02–09
five papers chosen by
Lyndsey Rolheiser, York University


  1. Gangs of London and public housing By Richard Disney; Tom Kirchmaier; Stephen Machin; Carmen Villa
  2. Beyond interest rates: Upfront costs and housing affordability in Germany By Osswald do Amaral, Francisco; Staratschek, Gereon; Zdrzalek, Jonas; Zetzmann, Steffen
  3. Local Employment Effects of Affordable Housing Construction: Evidence from Iran By Saeed Tajrishy; Mohammad Vesal
  4. Build better health: evidence from Ireland on housing quality and mortality By de Bromhead, Alan; Lyons, Ronan C.; Ohler, Johann
  5. Rethinking Financialisation from a Housing Industry Perspective: Delayed Asset Price Inflation in Turkey By Ezgi B. Unsal

  1. By: Richard Disney; Tom Kirchmaier; Stephen Machin; Carmen Villa
    Abstract: Novel spatial data on London street gangs between 1990 and 2015 are combined with local housing characteristics to produce a newly constructed data source that shows how social housing and its architectural design relates to gang presence and neighbourhood crime. High-rise public housing estates built in the post-World War II era are much more likely to host gangs than areas without social housing. To address concerns that social housing was built in already high-crime areas, localised high-rise construction is shown to be predicted from spatial patterns of WWII bomb damage that occurred in the 1940-41 Blitz. Bomb-induced high-rise construction significantly raises gang presence and criminality, with there being especially high juvenile crime rates in gang areas.
    Keywords: London gangs, public housing, bombs, knife crime
    Date: 2026–01–28
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2147
  2. By: Osswald do Amaral, Francisco; Staratschek, Gereon; Zdrzalek, Jonas; Zetzmann, Steffen
    Abstract: Housing (un-)affordability has become a defining social and economic challenge in German cities, shaping both wealth accumulation and intergenerational inequality. We decompose affordability into two components: the ability to service monthly mortgage payments and the ability to meet the upfront cash requirements for purchasing a home. Combining data on regional mortgage financing conditions, household incomes, and house prices from 1980 to 2024, we find that mortgage payments relative to income have changed little over time. In stark contrast, upfront costs relative to income have risen sharply: whereas households in 1980-1990 needed savings of less than two years of annual income to cover the equity requirement for an apartment purchase, households in 2015-2024 require more than three years. These results show that focusing on mortgage costs alone severely understates the decline in housing affordability. Instead, rising entry costs have become the primary constraint on homeownership, reinforcing advantages for households with existing wealth or familial financial support.
    Keywords: Housing affordability, Homeownership, Wealth inequality
    JEL: R21 R31 D31 G51
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:335893
  3. By: Saeed Tajrishy (Sharif University of Technology); Mohammad Vesal (Sharif University of Technology)
    Abstract: This paper estimates the causal impact of a large-scale public housing construction project on district-level employment. The program focused on mass building of affordable housing for lowand middle-income households. We use this construction shock in a generalized difference-indifferences strategy to estimate the impact on local labor markets. Our results show that each affordable housing project, increase local employment in the construction sector by 5 persons and 230 hours per week. Our second result show public housing projects crowd-out private housing projects by 50 percent. However, we do not find statistically significant general equilibrium effects on local employment across all specifications. These findings suggest that the local variation in affordable housing construction was too small relative to the baseline regional variability to detect a “local multiplier” effect impacting jobs outside of construction. We also find a transition from non-construction jobs to construction which is consistent with no overall employment impact.
    Date: 2024–12–20
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1765
  4. By: de Bromhead, Alan; Lyons, Ronan C.; Ohler, Johann
    Abstract: Poor housing conditions, and the negative effects of Household Air Pollution (HAP) in particular, remain one of the most pressing global public health challenges. While the association between poor housing and health has a long history, evidence of a direct link is lacking. In this paper, we examine a rare example of a public housing intervention in rural areas, namely the large-scale provision of high-quality housing in Ireland in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. We exploit a novel dataset of deaths-by-disease and deaths-by-age-and-sex over the period 1871–1919, to test the impact of the intervention on mortality. Our difference-in difference estimates indicate that improved housing conditions reduced mortality by as much as 1 death per 1000. This effect is driven by reductions in deaths from respiratory diseases. We propose a likely mechanism that is consistent with the pattern of results we observe: a reduction in Household Air Pollution through improved housing quality and better ventilation. A cost-benefit analysis reveals that the scheme was a highly cost-effective intervention.
    Keywords: Ireland
    JEL: N33 N93 Q53 O18 J10
    Date: 2025–10–10
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:129885
  5. By: Ezgi B. Unsal (Department of Economics, SOAS University of London. Russell Square, London WC1H 0XG, UK)
    Abstract: This paper is an exploration of housing financialisation by drawing upon the productive dynamics of the housebuilding industry. Housing financialisation literature has two distinct branches, one focusing on the macroeconomic mechanisms through which the imbalances in the housing market could reflect deeper macroeconomic fragilities. The other branch puts the emphasis on the commodification of housing as a commodity, mostly due to the withdrawal of the state as a provisioner. This study bridges the gap between these two literatures on housing financialisation by introducing the productive dynamics of the housebuilding industry itself as an explanatory factor, which has not been addressed by either of those literatures. It has two distinct but interrelated contributions. First, it provides a case that can demonstrate the various ways in which the commodification of housing can take place without necessarily the withdrawal of the state by using Turkey as an example. Second, by showing how this development took place in the context of public land availability to accommodate increasing supply and the sectoral interlinkages with the more “productive†energy sector, it explains why the disruptive macroeconomic effects of that strategy could be delayed for a prolonged period.
    Keywords: Financialisation in emerging economies, Political economy of Turkey, Asset price inflation, Housing sector, Energy sector
    JEL: R31 P25 B50
    Date: 2025–10
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:soa:wpaper:271

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