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on Housing and Real Estate |
| By: | Yan, Wenshou; Wang, Ruoxuan; Huang, Kaixing |
| Abstract: | Large-scale hydropower dams are among the most costly and controversial infrastructure projects, yet credible evidence on their regional economic impacts is scarce. This paper provides the first quasi-experimental estimate of the impact of the Three Gorges Project—the world’s largest dam—on regional economic growth. Using a difference-in-differences design with county level data, we find that the project raised GDP per capita in directly affected counties (which account for 11.6% of China’s GDP) by 9.1%. These gains were driven by improved navigation and trade, industrial land creation, and a moderated local climate—not merely by increased electricity supply. The project has also significantly accelerated the economic shift from agriculture to industry and services. However, the benefits were starkly unequal: downstream counties saw a 13.8% increase, while upstream counties experienced negligible gains, a divergence explained by asymmetric changes in land avail able for development. A cost-benefit analysis shows that considering only direct power revenues yields a negative return (-65.5%), but incorporating regional growth spillovers reveals a strongly positive return of 322.3%. Our findings demonstrate that the economic justification for mega-dams hinges on their indirect growth effects, which are large but spatially concentrated. |
| Keywords: | Mega-dams, Regional economic growth, Spatial heterogeneity, Cost-benefit analysis |
| JEL: | O13 O18 O53 Q25 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127196 |
| By: | Francisco Amaral (Universität Bonn = University of Bonn); Martin Dohmen (Universität Bonn = University of Bonn); Sebastian Kohl (Freie Universität Berlin = Free University of Berlin); Moritz Schularick (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Kiel Institute for the World Economy - Kiel Institute for the World Economy) |
| Abstract: | Rising within-country differences in house values are a much-debated trend in the United States and internationally. Using new long-run regional data for 15 advanced economies, we show that standard explanations linking growing price dispersion to rent dispersion are contradicted by an important stylized fact: rent dispersion has increased far less than price dispersion. We propose a new explanation: a uniform decline in real risk-free interest rates can have heterogeneous spatial effects on house values. Falling real safe rates disproportionately push up prices in large agglomerations where initial rent-price ratios are low, leading to housing market polarization on the national level. |
| Date: | 2024–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05448521 |
| By: | Jean-Philippe Meloche (University of Toronto) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between real estate development and property taxation in Québec municipalities. Regression analysis shows a fiscal gain associated with municipal growth in Québec. For municipalities with a population of 1, 000 or more that registered higher population growth or a higher increase in the number of real estate units from 2008 to 2018, property tax rates either increased by a smaller amount or declined by a larger amount compared with municipalities that had lower levels of growth or that experienced decline. Current spending per capita in these municipalities also increased by a smaller amount over this period. However, a larger share of their revenues came from fees, permits, and development charges, which may have covered part of their current spending. Ultimately, however, this growth-related fiscal gain was temporary. The analysis also shows that municipalities with larger populations had higher per-capita spending, financed by higher property values, which suggests that the property tax is well suited to pay for the costs associated with municipal growth. |
| Keywords: | municipal finances, real estate development, property tax, growth machines, Québec |
| JEL: | H71 R11 R30 R51 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mfg:wpaper:72 |
| By: | Wibbenmeyer, Matthew (Resources for the Future); Liao, Yanjun (Penny) (Resources for the Future); Drunkenmiller, Hannah; Iovanna, Richard |
| Abstract: | Conservation programs are often viewed as competing with local economic activity, yet they may also generate environmental amenities for nearby communities. We estimate how land enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP)—the largest US payments-for-ecosystem-services program—affects residential property values. Using nationwide field-level CRP data from 2012–2022 linked to home transactions, we apply a repeat-sales hedonic framework to identify how changes in nearby CRP land influence transaction prices of the same properties. We find that CRP enrollment produces meaningful appreciation of home values: a 10-hectare increase in CRP land within 1, 000 meters raises home values by roughly 0.5 percent, with especially strong effects for land converted to tree cover. Placebo and robustness tests confirm that results are not driven by county-level economic trends or development pressure. Our estimates imply that CRP lands increase US residential property values by $48–68 million annually, highlighting local benefits beyond payments to participating landowners.Keywords: Payments for Ecosystem Services, Land Conservation, Environmental Amenities, Hedonic Pricing |
| Date: | 2026–01–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-26-02 |
| By: | Liao, Yanjun (Penny) (Resources for the Future); Wibbenmeyer, Matthew (Resources for the Future); Drunkenmiller, Hannah; Iovanna, Richard; Thompson, Alexandra (Resources for the Future); Holmes, Brandon (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), the nation’s largest working-lands conservation program, retires environmentally sensitive cropland in exchange for rental payments. While CRP’s ecological benefits are well documented, its socioeconomic effects on rural communities are less understood, though they are central to ongoing policy debates regarding the program’s future. This report provides a comprehensive national assessment of CRP’s impacts on property values over the period 2012–2022, and on rural business activity, employment, and migration from 2001 to 2022. The analysis yields several key insights.CRP generates modest but measurable gains in nearby residential property values. Using a repeat-sales hedonic framework and a data set of more than 12 million transactions, we find that increases in CRP enrollment near a home raise sale prices. A 10-hectare increase in CRP land within 1 km increases property values by about 0.5–0.7 percent. Tree-cover CRP generates the greatest gains, at roughly 2 percent for the same increment, likely reflecting salient aesthetic improvements, wildlife habitat restoration, and enhanced recreational amenities. Based on current CRP enrollments, these localized amenity gains add an estimated $3 billion to residential real estate nationwide, or roughly $60 million annually.CRP enrollment supports rural economic activity, particularly in agricultural and local service industries. Despite longstanding concerns that retiring cropland weakens rural economies, our analysis at the industry, county, and year levels finds that CRP is associated with small but consistently positive increases in rural employment and business activity. A 1, 000-acre increase in county CRP enrollment raises rural employment by roughly 0.06 percent per year over the first three years, with gains tapering off by year five. On average, this implies an additional 8 rural jobs per 1, 000 acres enrolled. Establishment counts show similar patterns. Effects are strongest within agriculture and closely related industries, but spillovers appear in retail, recreation, hospitality, and other local non-tradable sectors. These effects could be explained by stabilized farm income, land management labor needs, and amenity-driven recreation spending.CRP does not contribute to sustained rural depopulation. Using IRS county-level migration data, we find no evidence that CRP accelerates out-migration or long-term population loss. CRP enrollment is associated with a small, short-run reduction in net in-migration (less than one basis point), but this effect reverses within three years. Over a five-year period, the program’s net effect on migration is essentially zero. These results counter the perception that CRP exacerbates rural decline.Overall, the findings indicate that the CRP has supported rural communities while delivering substantial environmental benefits. In recent years, the program’s impacts on property values, local employment, and sectoral activity have been positive but moderate, and concerns about depopulation linked to land retirement are not supported by empirical evidence. From a policy perspective, the results suggest that the CRP can advance conservation objectives without harming rural economies. It is important to recognize that CRP spending primarily represents transfer payments to landowners, meaning that the observed external benefits to local communities constitute net social gains. As policymakers debate whether to pare down or strengthen the program, these results underscore the importance of considering its broader socioeconomic implications. They also highlight opportunities to align CRP design more closely with rural development goals. In particular, while tree cover tends to be more costly to establish and maintain than other cover types, it generates the most pronounced positive effects in both property and labor markets, suggesting that its relative benefits may justify its higher costs. |
| Date: | 2026–01–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:report:rp-26-02 |
| By: | Hillis, Holly; Karwowski, Nicole |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361122 |
| By: | Carlos Cañizares Martínez (BANQUE CENTRALE DU LUXEMBOURG); Adriana Lojschová (NATIONAL BANK OF SLOVAKIA); Alicia Aguilar (BANCO DE ESPAÑA) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the effects of standard monetary policy shocks on housing and other macro variables in Slovakia, a CESEE country. For that purpose, we use a non-linear local projection model which uncovers asymmetries in these effects around three different dimensions: high versus low economic growth, interest rates and inflation. The main findings in this study are as follows. First, we often find no evidence of standard monetary policy eliciting a contractionary response in house prices or housing investment. Second, evidence is weakest during recessions and periods of low interest rates or low inflation. Third, these findings may be linked to the inability of monetary policy to trigger significant contractionary effects on household lending, which in turn may be linked to the effective lower bound on interest rates, the predominance of fixed-rate mortgages in Slovakia or interaction between monetary and macroprudential policy. We also discuss the possible country characteristics that might drive these results and policy implications. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, non-linearities, local projections, euro area |
| JEL: | C32 C36 E42 E52 E58 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2602 |
| By: | Agostino Capponi; Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh; Xinkai Wu |
| Abstract: | Following the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), the Credit Risk Transfer (CRT) bond market emerged as a new asset class in U.S. mortgage market. We develop an asset pricing framework for CRTs consistent with Treasury, corporate bond, and housing markets. Our analysis reveals that the Government-Sponsored Enterprises compensate investors approximately fairly on average, though they overpay for low-risk tranches and underpay for high-risk ones. Additionally, the post-GFC guarantee fee increases broadly align with underlying credit risk. We find significant reverse cross-subsidization, where high-credit-risk borrowers subsidize low-risk ones. The 2023 reform partially corrected this cross-subsidization. |
| JEL: | E60 G13 G18 G22 G28 G51 R21 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34708 |
| By: | Martin Hodula; Simona Malovana; Lukas Pfeifer |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how mortgage lending adjusts when higher interest rates coincide with tighter borrower-based regulatory constraints. Using loan-level data from the Czech Republic for 2020–2023, we exploit a unique policy sequence that combines rapid monetary tightening with the subsequent re-tightening of LTV, DTI, and DSTI limits in order to trace changes in borrower and loan characteristics among new originations. During the initial phase of tightening, higher interest rates curtailed mortgage lending, yet some adjustment was still possible: new loans started to feature higher downpayments and longer maturities, which partly absorbed the rise in financing costs. As tightening persisted and borrower-based limits were reinstated, these adjustment margins narrowed. Liquidity buffers were depleted, and new lending increasingly reflected financially stronger borrowers with lower leverage and lower default risk. The evidence further shows that while monetary policy primarily reduced lending volumes, it was the re-application of borrower-based limits that improved the risk composition of new loans. |
| Keywords: | Borrower-based limits, household finance, loan-level data, macroprudential policy, monetary policy |
| JEL: | E58 G21 G28 G51 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2026/02 |
| By: | Kim, Euijun; Fannin, J. Matthew |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361125 |
| By: | Jiri Gregor; Jan Janku |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the determinants of early mortgage refinancing in a market dominated by fixed-rate loans with comparatively short reset periods. Drawing on a matched loan-level dataset covering 2015–2024, we estimate panel logit and Cox proportional hazards models to assess how borrower characteristics market conditions, and macroprudential constraints jointly shape refinancing behaviour. The results show that households react strongly to the spread between their contractual mortgage rate and prevailing market rates, as well as to signals of future rate increases, highlighting the refinancing channel as an important conduit for the transmission of monetary policy even in fixed-rate environments. We further document that borrower indebtedness-captured by LTI, LSTI, and LTV-affects refinancing in a nonlinear manner. Moderate levels of these indicators enhance sensitivity to interest-rate incentives and facilitate refinancing, whereas very elevated values limit the borrower's opportunity or capacity to refinance. |
| Keywords: | Hazard models, household finance, indebtedness, refinancing |
| JEL: | E52 G21 D14 C41 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2026/01 |