|
on History and Philosophy of Economics |
| By: | Heng-fu Zou (IAS, Wuhan University) |
| Date: | 2025–01–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:724 |
| By: | Hanti Lin |
| Abstract: | The 2021 Nobel Prize in Economics recognizes a type of causal model known as the Rubin causal model, or potential outcome framework, which deserves far more attention from philosophers than it currently receives. To spark philosophers' interest, I develop a dialectic connecting the Rubin causal model to the Lewis-Stalnaker debate on a logical principle of counterfactuals: Conditional Excluded Middle (CEM). I begin by playing good cop for CEM, developing a new argument in its favor -- a Quine-Putnam-style indispensability argument. This argument is based on the observation that CEM seems to be indispensable to the Rubin causal model, which underpins our best scientific theory of causal inference in health and social sciences -- a Nobel Prize-winning theory. Indeed, CEM has long remained a core assumption of the Rubin causal model, despite challenges from within the statistics and economics communities over twenty years ago. I then switch sides to play bad cop for CEM, undermining the indispensability argument by developing a new theory of causal inference that dispenses with CEM while preserving the successes of the original theory (thanks to a new theorem proved here). The key, somewhat surprisingly, is to integrate two approaches to causal modeling: the Rubin causal model, more familiar in health and social sciences, and the causal Bayes net, more familiar in philosophy. The good cop/bad cop dialectic is concluded with a connection to broader philosophical issues, including intertheory relations, the revisability of logic, and the role of background assumptions in justifying scientific inference. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2405.11284 |
| By: | Henrekson, Magnus (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Jonung, Lars (Department of Economics, Lund University); Lundahl, Mats (Development Economics, Stockholm School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We provide a critical analysis of the adoption of the US ‘top-five model’ by European economics academia. This model prioritizes publications in five elite journals, heavily influencing the career trajectories of doctoral students and researchers. It highlights the inefficiencies and social costs of this system, including the overemphasis on narrowly focused research topics and methodologies that align with US editorial preferences. This undermines innovation, interdisciplinary exploration, and economic research on issues of high social relevance in the home countries. The dominance of US institutions in setting these standards, disadvantages European scholars. We propose reforms for more diverse evaluation criteria that account for local relevance and broader scholarly contributions, suggesting that such changes would better align with European academic and societal needs. These adjustments aim to create a more balanced and impactful academic landscape while fostering a wider range of meaningful research outputs. |
| Keywords: | Criteria for hiring and promotion; European economics; Pluralism; Research productivity |
| JEL: | A11 A14 I23 J44 J62 |
| Date: | 2025–01–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1519 |
| By: | Prashant Garg; Thiemo Fetzer |
| Abstract: | We analyze over 44, 000 NBER and CEPR working papers from 1980 to 2023 using a custom language model to construct knowledge graphs that map economic concepts and their relationships. We distinguish between general claims and those documented via causal inference methods (e.g., DiD, IV, RDD, RCTs). We document a substantial rise in the share of causal claims-from roughly 4% in 1990 to nearly 28% in 2020-reflecting the growing influence of the "credibility revolution." We find that causal narrative complexity (e.g., the depth of causal chains) strongly predicts both publication in top-5 journals and higher citation counts, whereas non-causal complexity tends to be uncorrelated or negatively associated with these outcomes. Novelty is also pivotal for top-5 publication, but only when grounded in credible causal methods: introducing genuinely new causal edges or paths markedly increases both the likelihood of acceptance at leading outlets and long-run citations, while non-causal novelty exhibits weak or even negative effects. Papers engaging with central, widely recognized concepts tend to attract more citations, highlighting a divergence between factors driving publication success and long-term academic impact. Finally, bridging underexplored concept pairs is rewarded primarily when grounded in causal methods, yet such gap filling exhibits no consistent link with future citations. Overall, our findings suggest that methodological rigor and causal innovation are key drivers of academic recognition, but sustained impact may require balancing novel contributions with conceptual integration into established economic discourse. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2501.06873 |
| By: | Pablo Ahumada |
| Abstract: | General Equilibrium Theory is the benchmark of economics, especially its results concerning the efficient allocation of resources, known as the First and Second Welfare Theorems. Yet, General Equilibrium Theory is beyond the scope of most economists. This paper is pitched as the first entry point into the theory. General Equilibrium Theory proves that at least one state of equilibrium always exists. In its most general approach, it uses fixed-point theorems to this end. This paper discusses the assumptions on individuals' behaviour and the structure of the system of exchange that guarantee that the conditions of the fixed-point theorems are satisfied. The purpose is to lay bare the role each plays in proving the existence of equilibrium and provide a clear picture of the relationship between the assumptions and the result. The discussion is presented in the simplest possible setting that captures the fundamental features of commodity exchange. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2411.17072 |
| By: | Charles, Sébastien; Marie, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | This article traces the evolution of the Post-Keynesian school in France since the mid-1970s. Starting out inauspiciously from a Keynesian tradition of little influence, the school’s growth was slowed by strong competition from other schools (both orthodox and heterodox) in a context of limited recruitment of permanent researchers at universities. Despite this, some momentum has been built up in France since 2000s. Today, the French Post-Keynesian school is well structured, internationally integrated, and capable of hybridizing with certain heterodox schools. Nevertheless, the trend remains shaky. |
| Keywords: | Post-Keynesians; France; Heterodoxy |
| JEL: | B22 B59 |
| Date: | 2025–01–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123348 |
| By: | Gilles Paché (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | The study of civilization collapse has gained significant attention since the 1980s, largely due to researchers like Joseph Tainter and Jared Diamond. Tainter explores how increasing societal complexity leads to higher management costs, ultimately causing collapse when marginal returns diminish, including in areas like logistics. In contrast, Diamond investigates various drivers of collapse, particularly environmental factors, and highlights that societies often fail when they cannot adapt their supply chains to challenges such as environmental degradation and climate crises. While Tainter views logistics as a fundamental aspect of societal complexity, Diamond includes it within his broader analysis of the causes of collapse. Despite this, it is unfortunate that the topic remains largely overlooked in supply chain management research. This paper seeks to fill that gap by demonstrating that logistical failures play a critical role in the collapse of civilizations, linking historical patterns to current vulnera |
| Keywords: | civilization collapse, history, Jared Diamond, Joseph Tainter, logistics, vulnerability |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04871034 |
| By: | Charles F. Manski |
| Abstract: | Researchers cannot definitively interpret what the framers of the United States Constitution had in mind when they wrote of the general Welfare. Nevertheless, welfare economics can contribute to policy choice in democracies. Specifying social welfare functions enables coherent analysis, by formalizing mechanisms for preference aggregation and studying the policies they yield. This paper argues that it is essential for welfare economics to adequately express the richness and variety of actual human preferences over social states. I first discuss devices that economists have used in attempts to circumvent or grossly simplify specification of social welfare functions. I next discuss the common welfare economic practice of assuming that personal preferences are homogeneous, consequentialist, and self-centered. I then call for incorporation of broader forms of personal preferences into social welfare functions. Individuals may hold heterogeneous social preferences, being concerned in various ways with the distribution of outcomes in the population. They may hold heterogeneous deontological preferences, placing value on their own actions and the actions of others. They may have preferences for the mechanism used to aggregate preferences in a social welfare function. These potential aspects of personal preference should be recognized in welfare economics. |
| JEL: | D60 H0 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33376 |
| By: | Anna Bykhovskaya; Vadim Gorin |
| Abstract: | For over a century canonical correlations, variables, and related concepts have been studied across various fields, with contributions dating back to Jordan [1875] and Hotelling [1936]. This text surveys the evolution of canonical correlation analysis, a fundamental statistical tool, beginning with its foundational theorems and progressing to recent developments and open research problems. Along the way we introduce and review methods, notions, and fundamental concepts from linear algebra, random matrix theory, and high-dimensional statistics, placing particular emphasis on rigorous mathematical treatment. The survey is intended for technically proficient graduate students and other researchers with an interest in this area. The content is organized into five chapters, supplemented by six sets of exercises found in Chapter 6. These exercises introduce additional material, reinforce key concepts, and serve to bridge ideas across chapters. We recommend the following sequence: first, solve Problem Set 0, then proceed with Chapter 1, solve Problem Set 1, and so on through the text. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2411.15625 |