nep-hpe New Economics Papers
on History and Philosophy of Economics
Issue of 2024–12–09
two papers chosen by
Erik Thomson, University of Manitoba


  1. Institutionalism and Liberalism By Obregon, Carlos
  2. The Beige Book and the Business Cycle: Using Beige Book Anecdotes to Construct Recession Probabilities By Charles S. Gascon; Joseph Martorana

  1. By: Obregon, Carlos
    Abstract: In social sciences there has been a long debate between the defenders of institutionalism and those of liberalism. The debate has centered around the relationship that exists between the individual (agent) and the social institutions (social structure). In general, liberalism defends that the individual ́s (agent ́s) preferences, choices, and behavior define the social institutions (social structure); while institutionalism argues that the social institutions define the individual ́s preferences, choices, and behavior. Some authors have attempted to solve the debate by proposing a dual feedback loop between the individual and the social institution, in which both mutually define each other. But the solution is not as simple as that. In this book, it is argued that liberalism is fully compatible with institutionalism, although only by following a pragmatic-scientific conception of both. It is ascertained that liberalism is an institution, that was born in a particular historical period of the Western societies. Therefore, since liberalism itself is an institution, it follows that liberalism is compatible with institutionalism. It is argued in here that although it is in general true that institutionalism defends that individual preferences, choices, and behaviors are defined by social institutions; once the society grants the individuals political and economic freedom, these individual preferences, choices, and behaviors become critical in defining the dynamics of the institutional arrangement in question – as liberalism has pointed out.
    Keywords: institutionalism, liberalism, individual, social institutions, social structure, preferences, choices, behavior, Western societies, society, political, politics, economic
    JEL: A10 A12 A13 A14 B00 B30 B31 G00 G01 G02 G20 G28 G29 H00 N00 P00 P20 P25 P26 P40 R00
    Date: 2023–03–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122455
  2. By: Charles S. Gascon; Joseph Martorana
    Abstract: The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book prior to each Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The report is a narrative based on anecdotal and qualitative information collected from a wide range of contacts in each of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. We take the lexicon approach to text analysis to create sentiment indexes that track changes in economic conditions from the very first Beige Book in May 1970 to the most recent (at the time of writing) in October 2024. We create additional indexes to account for various current-event shocks, such as political events or natural disasters that distort typical sentiment measures. We find that the real-time recession probabilities derived from a probit model featuring only the created sentiment and shock indexes are closely correlated with NBER recession periods, and more accurately indicate business cycle turning points than other widely cited measures. We find that the Beige Book can be used to promptly identify periods of economic recession as our model typically allows us to date business cycle turning points far in advance of the official announcements made by the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee.
    Keywords: Beige Book; Federal Reserve System; sentiment analysis; recession; business cycle
    JEL: E3 E58
    Date: 2024–11–21
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:99162

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