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on History and Philosophy of Economics |
| By: | Khan, Haider |
| Abstract: | What does a causal explanation deliver in any science, but particularly in the social sciences? How are relatively deeper scientific explanations to be distinguished from superficial or shallower ones? Furthermore, what roles can counterfactual analysis play in social sciences and policy making? For a competent, morally motivated scientific policy maker, it is important to avoid inflicting harm and promote the common good. The purpose of this paper is to clarify how the idea of depth can play a role in finding the more "approximately true" explanation through causal comparisons and counterfactual conditionals that are scientifically salient in principle. In doing so, we must also be able to avoid inflicting harm and promote the common good. It is not an exhaustive treatment but rather focuses on a few aspects that may be the most critical in evaluating the explanatory strengths of a theory in the social sciences. It presents a general argument which is anti-Humean on the critical side and scientific realist on the positive and normative side. It also elucidates how explanations in political economy and other social sciences can be judged by the scientific realist criterion of causal depth by an extensive example from research in the political economy of development. In this case, an "intentional" and methodologically individualist neoclassical explanation is contrasted with a "structural" dual-dual approach as rival theories purporting to explain the same set of phenomena. Finally, avoiding harmful policies and aiding in making policies for advancing the common good are more likely if the methodological approach advocated here is adopted for responsible practice. Ultimately, following the methodology advanced here , it will be possible to drive further the tendencies towards the creation of an ethically efficacious economics(EEE) for ecologically sustainable humane policy making. |
| Keywords: | Scientific Explanations, Social and Economic Explanations, Causal Depth, Critical Scientific Realism, Political Economy, Neoclassical Economics, Structuralism, Social Science Theories, Economic Models, Ethics and Economics, Counterfactuals and Causal Efficacy, Common Good. Economic Justice, Ethically Efficacious Economics(EEE) |
| JEL: | B4 C9 I3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119641&r=hpe |
| By: | Mahtani, Anna |
| Abstract: | A brief summary of the book *The Objects of Credence*. The book argues that credences, or degrees of belief, are ‘opaque’ or ‘hyperintensional’ and draws out the implications of this fact for principles of rationality, including deference principles and the principal principle, and for both decision theory and welfare economics. |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2024–01–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121261&r=hpe |
| By: | Baron, Hervé |
| Abstract: | In the following paper, we shall focus on the Italian branch of the monetary circuit (or monetary theory of production). In particular, we shall attempt a methodical exploration of the theoretical production of the one who may rightly be considered the founding father of this branch: Augusto Graziani. We shall do this along three lines. Firstly, in the wake of Lunghini and Bianchi (2003), we shall argue that that of Graziani, far from being a complete model, is presented as a historically “open” scheme, which therefore needs “closure”. Secondly, we shall argue that this scheme should be considered as a logical, not historical, re-construction of the functioning of the capitalist economy. Finally, we shall illustrate how such a scheme stands at the highest possible level of abstraction. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Circuit, Graziani, Methodology. |
| JEL: | B31 B41 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119511&r=hpe |
| By: | Roland Bénabou (Princeton University, NBER, CEPR, IZA, BREAD, and briq); Armin Falk (University of Bonn); Luca Henkel (University of Chicago and University of CEMA, CESifo, JILAEE) |
| Abstract: | Choosing what is morally right can be based on the consequences (ends) resulting from the decision – the Consequentialist view – or on the conformity of the means involved with some overarching notion of duty – the Deontological view. Using a series of experiments, we investigate the overall prevalence and the consistency of consequentialist and deontological decision-making, when these two moral principles come into conflict. Our design includes a real-stakes version of the classical trolley dilemma, four novel games that induce ends-versus-means tradeoffs, and a rule-following task. These six main games are supplemented with six classical self-versus-other choice tasks, allowing us to relate consequential/deontological behavior to standard measures of prosociality. Across the six main games, we find a sizeable prevalence (20 to 44%) of non-consequentialist choices by subjects, but no evidence of stable individual preference types across situations. In particular, trolley behavior predicts no other ends-versus-means choices. Instead, which moral principle prevails appears to be context-dependent. In contrast, we find a substantial level of consistency across self-versus-other decisions, but individuals’ degree of prosociality is unrelated to how they choose in ends-versus-means tradeoffs. |
| Keywords: | morality, deontological, consequentialist, Kantian, ends-versus-means, trolley dilemma, prosocial, altruism, social preferences |
| JEL: | C91 D01 D64 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:275&r=hpe |
| By: | John B. Guerard (McKinley Capital Management, LLC) |
| Abstract: | Why should Wall Street researchers care about Sir David Hendry? What should be a role for macroeconomic forecasting on portfolio selection? What do the forecasting works and software of Professor Hendry offer Wall Street that its researchers have yet to exploit? This author offers a unique perspective on the outstanding software, Autometrics, of Professor Hendry and his colleagues. The application of saturation variables in a changing world to address structural breaks in financial data. Financial economists since the time of Harry Markowitz, William (Bill) Sharpe, Martin Gruber and Ed Elton, Burton Malkiel, and Haim Levy, have modeled corporate earnings and stock process to create diversified portfolios that may incorporate financial anomalies. What the author suggests is that the exploitation of time series patterns and structural breaks in financial data may be very useful in creating less efficient portfolios. That is, Wall Street researchers seek with great effort to beat the stock market. The author believes that the research of Herman Stekler, Geoffrey Moore, Victor Zarnowitz, and David Hendry should be integrated into portfolio selection. Professor Hendry’s software, Autometrics, should be a great resource of enormous value to portfolio construction and management. |
| Keywords: | forecasting, saturation variables, structural breaks |
| JEL: | C |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2024-001&r=hpe |
| By: | William A. Allen (National Institute of Economic and Social Research) |
| Abstract: | The history of ‘money doctors’ despatched to give financial advice to countries thought to be in need of it has mainly concentrated on American advisers (e.g. Flandreau 2003). This paper gives an account of a British mission to Poland in 1923 – 1924, a period which coincided with the ending of Poland’s hyper-inflation. It describes how the mission contributed to Poland’s monetary stabilisation in 1924, and explores the tensions that arose about the scope and functions of the mission, and of foreign advisers more generally, both between the mission and the Polish authorities, and within the mission. |
| Keywords: | Poland, money doctors, inflation, Hilton Young, Grabski, monetary reform |
| JEL: | N14 N24 N44 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:366&r=hpe |