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on History and Philosophy of Economics |
| By: | Heckman, James J. (University of Chicago); Pinto, Rodrigo (University of California, Los Angeles) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the econometric causal model and the interpretation of empirical evidence based on thought experiments that was developed by Ragnar Frisch and Trygve Haavelmo. We compare the econometric causal model with two currently popular causal frameworks: the Neyman-Rubin causal model and the Do-Calculus. The Neyman-Rubin causal model is based on the language of potential outcomes and was largely developed by statisticians. Instead of being based on thought experiments, it takes statistical experiments as its foundation. The Do-Calculus, developed by Judea Pearl and co-authors, relies on Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) and is a popular causal framework in computer science and applied mathematics. We make the case that economists who uncritically use these frameworks often discard the substantial benefits of the econometric causal model to the detriment of more informative analyses. We illustrate the versatility and capabilities of the econometric framework using causal models developed in economics. |
| Keywords: | causal inference, causality, structural equation models, Directed Acyclic Graphs, simultaneous causality |
| JEL: | C10 C18 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16646&r=hpe |
| By: | Vahabi, Mehrdad; Klebaner, Samuel |
| Abstract: | On the occasion of the release of his latest book (Vahabi 2023), Mehrdad Vahabi, a University Professor and director of CEPN, reflects on several theoretical dimensions of his work during an interview. Firstly, Mehrdad Vahabi revisits his definition of predation, explaining how this concept forms the cornerstone of his theoretical framework. Predation is not considered as a rational behavior but rather as a social relationship, instituted through which several dimensions of power are transmitted. Next, in contrast to the regulation theory, he puts forth a critique of the State as a predatory institution. The State is not seen as a neutral field or a mere instrument serving the dominant class, but rather as an institution that, through its ability to levy taxes, establishes a predatory relationship with its subjects. Importantly, his approach allows for the assessment of the value of assets in the eyes of the State, providing an interesting analytical framework to explain economic policy choices. Thirdly, Mehrdad Vahabi develops the idea that the analysis of institutional change should better account for conflict, with compromise being a form of domination revealing the predatory nature of the State. Finally, he discusses political capitalism and critiques socialism, offering some ingredients for a society without predation that still needs to be built in the current world. |
| Keywords: | French Regulation school; predation, conflict, institutional change, State, socialism, political capitalism |
| JEL: | B52 P16 |
| Date: | 2023–12–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119567&r=hpe |
| By: | Gechert, Sebastian; Mey, Bianka; Opatrny, Matej; Havranek, Tomas; Stanley, T. D.; Bom, Pedro R. D.; Doucouliagos, Hristos; Heimberger, Philipp; Irsova, Zuzana; Rachinger, Heiko J. |
| Abstract: | Over the past several decades, meta-analysis has emerged as a widely accepted tool to understand economics research. Meta-analyses often challenge the established conventional wisdom of their respective fields. We systematically review a wide range of influential meta-analyses in economics and compare them to ‘conventional wisdom.’ After correcting for observable biases, the empirical economic effects are typically much closer to zero and sometimes switch signs. Typically, the relative reduction in effect sizes is 45-60%. |
| Keywords: | meta-analysis, systematic review, conventional wisdom |
| JEL: | A14 B40 C10 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:280745&r=hpe |
| By: | A. Tidu |
| Abstract: | Every social scientist knows that understanding inequality is pivotal for understanding the dynamics that rule human society. Inequality is at least as old as society, and some authors even argue that economics itself originate from the inequalities in skills and needs that inevitably lead to specialization, trade and surpluses. Despite its relevance, it is nevertheless very hard to define inequality and – somehow paradoxically - it might get even harder when one tries to restrict the focus to subcomponents such as income or wealth inequality. And even when the income or the wealth part of the equation is agreed upon, inequality still remains conceptually problematic - what shall be perceived as equal? Do a few really well-off (or extremely poor) outliers make a distribution more inequal than a larger number of people quite above (and quite below) the mean? Conceptual problems aside, a large amount of literature focuses on inequality trends and drivers and falsifies commonly-held beliefs such as the widespread myth that inequality is trending upwards. Some potential drivers are highly controversial - notably globalization is seen by some authors as stimulating a race to the bottom that ends up exacerbating existing inequality, whereas others argue that it is beneficial for the more disadvantaged. The goal of this review is to show how the conceptual vagueness behind the word inequality calls for as much rigor as possible in the study of its possible forms and notions and in the identification of the best tools for its measurement. However, one should not be fooled by associating such a vagueness with a lack of relevance of the concept and of its implications - au contraire, we should feel compelled to investigate the multitude of possible facets that the concept might assume and the fittest options and instruments that statistics and mathematics provide for their measurement - desirable policies could be radically different from each other depending on the theory that one espouses, and they range from the pursuit of resource redistribution to a mere acceptance of inequality as either inevitable or desirable. Also, different metrics could suggest different approaches, so one should carefully select the measures that will help him understand and describe the type of inequality that he is investigating. |
| Keywords: | wealth;Poverty;Inequality;income |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cns:cnscwp:202313&r=hpe |
| By: | Egorova, Natalia; Kozerskaya, Natalia |
| Abstract: | The article is dedicated to the memory of the outstanding Russian scientist and social and political figure Mikhail Yakovlevich Lemeshev, whose life and work were dedicated to serving science and the people. The work highlights the scientific activity of M. Ya. Lemeshev as an outstanding world-class economist who laid the fundamental theoretical foundations of environmental economics and the development of the human community in harmony with the environment. |
| Keywords: | Economy of environmental management, ecological habitat, ecological-economic social metasystem |
| JEL: | J18 Q57 |
| Date: | 2023–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119436&r=hpe |
| By: | Guillaume Allègre (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | Les deux textes discutés ici entendent changer nos représentations sur le patrimoine. Le grand retour de la terre propose une grande réforme fiscale sur la base d'une taxe sur la valeur de marché du foncier tandis que Repenser l'héritage propose une grande réforme des droits de donations et successions dans le sens d'une plus grande progressivité, d'une suppression des exonérations, d'une augmentation des recettes et d'une réduction des droits pour les petites successions. Il existe trois modes de justification d'une politique fiscale. Une politique est efficace lorsqu'elle maximise la production ou la consommation globale ou qu'elle minimise les pertes. Une politique optimale répond à un arbitrage entre efficacité et équité souvent réduites à la taille et au partage du gâteau. L'argumentation en termes de justice prend aussi en compte efficacité et équité mais ne les met pas sur le même plan : par construction, l'efficacité doit se mettre au service de quelque chose, en l'occurrence au service de l'équité dans toutes ses dimensions. Le premier texte argue principalement du point de vue de l'efficacité : l'idée d'imposer le foncier est principalement justifiée par l'inélasticité de l'assiette et donc par l'efficacité. Les questions pratiques et la question de l'équité horizontale sont évacuées trop vite. Le deuxième texte s'intéresse beaucoup plus aux questions pratiques, démontrant l'inutilité des exonérations en termes d'efficience économique. Toutefois si les droits de succession sont justes, pourquoi les réduire pour 99 % de la population ? Un impôt est juste si son mécanisme est perçu comme juste, et non parce qu'il exonère suffisamment de personnes. Il existe des impôts perçus comme justes et ayant des effets similaires sur la réduction des inégalités de transmission et notamment l'imposition de la fortune et celle des hauts revenus. Dans ce cadre, imposer toutes les plus-values réelles, y compris lors des successions, pourrait obtenir un plus grand consensus en articulant réduction des inégalités et équité horizontale |
| Keywords: | Fiscalité, Efficacité, Optimalité, Justice, Héritage, Droits de succession, Terre, Taxe foncière |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04283270&r=hpe |
| By: | Gillian Brunet; Eric Hilt; Matthew S. Jaremski |
| Abstract: | We study the role of war bonds and inflation in the presidential elections of the 1950s. During World War II, the federal government conducted aggressive campaigns to convince Americans to invest their savings in wartime savings bonds. Although the bonds were nonnegotiable and protected from interest rate fluctuations, two major inflationary episodes after the war, in 1946-48 and 1950-51, eroded the real value of their returns, contributing to a political backlash against the incumbent Democrats. In a difference-in-differences framework, we find that counties with higher war bond purchases shifted their votes towards the Republican party in the postwar elections, relative to the elections of the late 1930s and early 1940s. To address concerns related to the endogeneity of war bond purchases, we instrument for WWII bond subscriptions using participation rates from the World War I liberty bonds, and find similar results. Our results indicate that the promotion of savings bonds made Americans more sensitive to the high inflation that prevailed after the war, contributing to Republicans’ victories in the 1950s. |
| JEL: | E20 E31 H6 N1 N22 N42 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31969&r=hpe |
| By: | Aurélie Méjean (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Antonin Pottier (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CMB - Centre Marc Bloch - MEAE - Ministère de l'Europe et des Affaires étrangères - Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Stéphane Zuber (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Marc Fleurbaey (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Climate policy is often described by economists as an intertemporal consumption trade-off: consume all you want today and face climate damages in the future, or sacrifice consumption today to implement costly climate policies that will bring future benefits through avoided climate damages. If one assumes enduring technological progress, a society that is more averse to intertemporal inequalities should postpone climate policies and let future, richer generations pay more. Growing evidence however suggests that the trade-off is more complex: abrupt, extreme, irreversible changes to the climate may cause discontinuities to socio-economic systems, possibly leading to a sharp decline of human population and consumption per capita. In this paper, we show that, when accounting for a very small risk of catastrophic climate change, it is optimal to pursue stringent climate policies to postpone the catastrophe. Our results conform with the well-known conclusion that tight carbon budgets are preferred when aversion towards inequalities between generations is low. However, by contrast with previous studies, we show that stringent policies are also optimal when inequality aversion is high. The non-monotonicity of the influence of inequality aversion is due to the fact that, for a given investment in abatement, a higher inequality aversion gives a smaller weight to avoided future non-catastrophic damages, but a larger weight to the catastrophic outcome. We also explore the role of population ethics, and show that the size of the optimal carbon budget decreases with the social preference for large populations, although this parameter plays almost no role at extreme levels of inequality aversion. Our result demonstrates that views from opposite sides of the ethical spectrum in terms of inequality aversion converge in terms of climate policy recommendations, warranting immediate climate action. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Catastrophic risk, Equity Population, Climate-economy model |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-04158009&r=hpe |
| By: | Hiroyuki TOSA (Graduate School of International Cooperation Studies, Kobe University) |
| Abstract: | For purposes of examining how to reformulate human security in the age of planetary crisis, this article is divided into eight sections. Following the introduction (section 1) describing the notion of Anthropocene, section 2 reviews recent revival of deep ecological thought: non-human turn in the context of Anthropocene. Section 3 discusses non-anthropocentrism and its limits by focusing on tacit anthropomorphism and introduces the concept of weak anthropocentrism. While going beyond simple deconstruction of nature/culture dichotomy, section 4 examines intertwined relations between ecological imbalance and social imbalance in the Patriarchal Capitalocene and section 5 examines racism: neuro-political fragmentation in Plantationocene. Section 6 introduces care-sensitive ethics for alleviating planetary crisis and the next section scrutinizes the implications of a crisis of care by looking at the way in which neoliberal capitalism guzzles care work from social reproductive sphere as well as extract wealth from natural sphere to sustain its accumulation. A final section: conclusion suggests the possibility of an ideal of total liberation framework for enhancing our practical capabilities to achieve the solidarity in a more-than-human world. |
| Keywords: | human security, posthuman, more-than-human, Anthropocene, Plantationocene, total liberation framework |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kcs:wpaper:41&r=hpe |
| By: | Ranil Dissanayake (Center for Global Development); Mark Lowcock (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | Created in 1997, the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID) had by 2003 become one of the world’s most influential organisations in international development. This paper explains how that was brought about through the combination of effective political leadership, wider government backing, the setting and retention of clear objectives behind which growing resources were rigorously deployed, the employment of large numbers of capable and motivated staff, and the effective use of analysis and evidence in advocacy and partnerships with others. This period was one in which the conditions were favourable for global development, and while not all of DFID’s efforts to promote international development were successful, much progress was made. DFID’s overall contribution to improving the living conditions and life experiences of people in many of the world’s poorest countries in these years cannot be quantified, but it is likely to have been significant. |
| Date: | 2023–10–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:310&r=hpe |
| By: | Ranil Dissanayake (Center for Global Development); Mark Lowcock (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | This is the first in a series of papers drawing on original interviews, data, and secondary sources to examine how the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID) was born, functioned both internationally and domestically, and was in 2020 merged with the diplomatic service to form the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO). By examining this history, we aim to illuminate the UK’s contribution to international development over the last quarter century, and to draw out lessons for other bilateral donors, and the global aid and development architecture more generally. |
| Date: | 2023–06–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:297&r=hpe |