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on History and Philosophy of Economics |
| By: | Carlo Zappia (Università degli Studi di Siena) |
| Abstract: | On the occasion of the assessment of the enduring influence of Keynes's Treatise on Probability at 100 years, this paper focuses on its relevance for decision theory. The paper places emphasis on Keynes's introduction of the epistemic notion of probabilities that often are non-numerical, as a theoretical object intended to replace frequency probabilities. The paper argues that, as non-numerical probabilities make it possible to deal with uncertainty as if individuals were endowed with interval-valued probabilities, Keynes's 1921 critique of contemporary frequency probability theory turns out to be relevant also with regard to the yet to be established subjective probability theory. Although non-numerical probabilities were used by Keynes to criticize the contemporary application of probability to conduct, it must be acknowledged that, still today, they may constitute an appropriate tool for decision-making when confronting uncertainty, as he hinted at in his late 1930s correspondence with Hugh Townshend. |
| Keywords: | probability, uncertainty, decision-making |
| JEL: | B21 B31 D81 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2021-36&r= |
| By: | Alexandra-Anca Purcel (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | We perform an updated literature survey on pollution-growth nexus via the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis, both from theoretical and empirical standpoints. First, we conduct a literature review on the most well-known rationale behind the EKC prevalence and discuss the key components of the research design when estimating the EKC. Second, we bring together the most influential empirical papers published in the last decade, which focus on EKC estimation in developing and transition economies. Overall, succeeding to curtail some of the deficiencies suggested by theoretical contributions, the recent empirical studies might indicate a certain consensus regarding pollution-growth nexus, and EKC validity. On one hand, reinforcing the EKC nature, several studies reveal a long-run relationship between indicators. On the other hand, according to income coefficients' signs, the traditional bell-shaped pattern seems to be at work for some developing and transition economies. However, in some cases, the estimated turning point lies outside the income sample range, calling into question not only the true pattern between pollution and growth but also the identification of EKC. Taken collectively, both the theoretical foundations and empirical evidence, could contribute to a better understanding of the pollution-growth nexus in the EKC context, and suggest some useful insights into the future works on the subject as well as the crucial policy implications in this group of countries. |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03182332&r= |
| By: | Francesco Capozza (Erasmus University Rotterdam, Tinbergen Institute); Ingar Haaland (University of Bergen and CESifo); Christopher Roth (University of Cologne, ECONtribute, briq, CESifo, CEPR, CAGE Warwick); Johannes Wohlfart (Department of Economics and CEBI, University of Copenhagen, CESifo, Danish Finance Institute) |
| Abstract: | We review the emerging literature on information acquisition in field settings. We first document an increase in studies on information acquisition and review relevant studies in different subfields of economics, including macroeconomics, political economy, labor economics, health economics, and finance. We next provide an overview of empirical tech-niques to measure information acquisition and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of different methods. We then discuss how one can design studies to test the predictions of different theories of information acquisition. We conclude by highlighting possible directions for future research. |
| Keywords: | Information acquisition, Willingness to pay, Click data, Experimental Design, Beliefs, Surveys |
| JEL: | C90 D83 D91 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:124&r= |
| By: | Jacques Fontanel (CESICE - Centre d'études sur la sécurité internationale et les coopérations européennes - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble) |
| Abstract: | For liberal economists, with the end of the Soviet Union, globalization is a step towards peace. However, war is still a threat for a humanity capable today of committing suicide, with nuclear and cybernetic weapons. The analyses of mercantilism do not disappear and the relations of force are still alive. The nature of "war" has changed. National security cannot be limited to the military, it also includes health, education, industrial risks or the protection of natural resources. The economy is both a cause of war and a means of armed conflict. Economic warfare uses weapons adapted to obtain a right or the exercise of a domination. As such, blockades, embargoes, boycotts or mercantilist-type power actions are techniques of war or conflict recognized by States. The international economic system is largely dominated and organized by the great powers and by multinational corporations. Moreover, the coercive power of states is mainly controlled by the largest multinationals. The current globalization is criticized, it is accused of developing inequalities and factors of conflicts, by giving power to the actors of international finance and to an unscrupulous commercial world. With the process of digitalization, a new type of colonialism in a dematerialized world deeply influenced by mercantilist behavior. There is a need for economic and social democratization of democracy. |
| Date: | 2021–10–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03381421&r= |
| By: | Francois-Xavier de Vaujany (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | La question du futur du travail est aujourd'hui sur toutes les lèvres. Que devient le travail ? Que va-til devenir ? Avec lui, quelles sont les transformations en cours du management ? Comme l'a montré la pandémie actuelle, le monde bifurque parfois brutalement. Rien n'est acquis. Les phénomènes les plus habituels comme la vie à la maison, le « bonjour », les pratiques liées au « bureau », les modalités de la rencontre avec des collaborateurs, sont aujourd'hui profondément redéfinies. Ces ruptures devraient inciter à penser une histoire du travail. Il s'agirait alors d'écrire et de décrire les transformations du travail en les inscrivant dans leur époque. Mais comment penser les événements du travail et leur devenir ? Comment comprendre les continuités et les discontinuités d'un phénomène changeant ? Peut-on raconter de façon continue l'histoire d'un ensemble complexe de discontinuités multiples ? L'Histoire ne devient-elle pas alors une belle histoire, celle rassurante que l'on peut raconter à des enfants ? Centrée sur des personnages déjà là, elle enchaîne les événements du début vers la fin, à partir de surprises venues tout entière d'un dehors bien mystérieux. La crise en cours du Coronavirus nous fait ressentir les limites d'une telle approche. Penser sérieusement une histoire du travail et du management, c'est théoriser des continuités, des discontinuités, des dialectiques, des paradoxes, des récits communs, des différences à l'oeuvre dans notre temps. 1 Ce texte est la note préparatoire de la quatrième leçon inaugurale du cours « Transformations du Travail et Numérique » (TTN) initié en 2018. Ces leçons inaugurales mettent des philosophes en conversation avec les transformations du travail et du management. Après Merleau-Ponty, Emerson et Alexander puis Simondon, la leçon de cette année porte sur les théories de l'histoire de Foucault et Merleau-Ponty. Elle montre une complicité théorique inattendue entre les deux penseurs. |
| Date: | 2021–10–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03362830&r= |