nep-hpe New Economics Papers
on History and Philosophy of Economics
Issue of 2018‒07‒09
fifteen papers chosen by
Erik Thomson
University of Manitoba

  1. Naïve and Sophisticated Mixing: Experimental Evidence By Christian Alcocer;Thomas D. Jeitschko; Robert Shupp; Thomas D. Jeitschko; Robert Shupp
  2. Using Rules-of-Thumb: A Note on Sophisticated vs. Simple Mixing in Two-Player Randomly Matched Games By Christian Alcocer; Thomas D. Jeitschko; Thomas D. Jeitschko
  3. 'Economics' of prosperity: Why the dominant perspectives may be unhelpful to make sense of underdevelopment By Gupta, Avinash
  4. The influence of Sen’s applied economics on his “social choice” approach to justice: agency at the core of public action to remove injustice By Muriel Gilardone
  5. The autocatalytic sprawl of pseudorational mastery (version 0.12) By Martin, Ulf
  6. Teori uang dan inflasi dalam analisis pemikiran Al Maqrizi By Hamidin, Dede
  7. Aristotle vs. Plato: The distributive origins of the Cold War By Grigoriadis, Theocharis
  8. The Bretton Woods Experience and ERM By Chris Kirrane
  9. Do We Really Know that U.S. Monetary Policy was Destabilizing in the 1970s? By Qazi Haque; Nicolas Groshenny; Mark Weder
  10. Hedonic Recommendations: An Econometric Application on Big Data By Okay Gunes
  11. The strategies of economic research - An empirical study By Martin Paldam
  12. The future of work a literature review By Balliester, Thereza.; Elsheikhi, Adam.
  13. Pemikiran Ekonomi Al-Ghazali By Jeri, Ramsito
  14. Vollgeld und Vollreserve: Was bringt eine neue Geldordnung? By Stolzenburg, Ulrich
  15. Looking at the bright side: The motivation value of overconfidence By Chen, Si; Schildberg-Hörisch, Hannah

  1. By: Christian Alcocer;Thomas D. Jeitschko; Robert Shupp; Thomas D. Jeitschko; Robert Shupp
    Abstract: We identify a behavioral bias in games with completely mixed equilibria. Following Alcocer and Jeitschko (2014) we characterize players who, when indifferent between several optimal choices, assign an equal probability to playing any one of them, rather than following the mixing of the Nash Equilibirum. We design an experiment to test for the presence of such ‘na ??ve’ players. In a first session, we sort subjects into na ??ve players and their sophisticated counterparts, according to their tendency to skew towards uniform mixing rather than Nash equilibrium mixing. Two weeks later, each group played against varying proportions of automated players (bots) that follow varying off-equilibrium mixed strategies. Subjects categorized as na ??ve continue to tend towards uniform mixing and also are less apt to account for distortions due to off-equilibrium bots. In contrast, sophisticated players do compensate for the distortions in the game, although this compensation is not large enough to restore equilibria, implying there are predictable methods to attain above-equilibrium payoffs. We also isolate altruistic components of players’ strategies: behavior gets closer to Nash equilibria by adding transparent bots that do not directly incentivize any change in behavior but decrease the benefits of surplus maximizing behavior. Lastly, we show that the probability of being categorized as na ??ve is correlated with the performance on a quantitative test.
    Keywords: Experimental, Behavioral, Bounded Rationality, Compensated Equilib-rium, Computer Bots, Mixed Equilibria, Cognitive Heterogeneity, Na ??ve and Sophisti-cated Players
    JEL: C72 C91 D03 D83
    Date: 2018–02–15
  2. By: Christian Alcocer; Thomas D. Jeitschko; Thomas D. Jeitschko
    Abstract: We postulate a new behavioral bias in how people play mixed strategies by proposing the existence of simple players who lack strategic depth; in a sense, they are the simplest possible agents that do not directly contradict the economic principle of utility maximization. We deÖne them as those who, when indi§erent between choices, follow a simple rule-of-thumb and assign a predetermined probability to each. We show that if they play 2 2 games, an equilibrium generally fails to exist. However, under random matching within populations with some proportion of simple players, equilibrium is restored and is indistinguishable from Nash equilibria in games with unrestricted strategy choices, as long as the percentage of simple mixers is small enough. As such, players are unable to take advantage of the presence of simple mixers, and simple mixers do no worse than more sophisticated players.
    Keywords: Behavioral, Bounded Rationality, Mixed Equilibria
    JEL: C72 D03 D83
    Date: 2018–01–23
  3. By: Gupta, Avinash
    Abstract: The article is essentially a book-review of Professor Vijay Joshi's recent work, '"India's Long Road: The Search for Prosperity". In this critical essay, I take a slightly revisionist approach when it comes to a 'typical'book review. For example, the length of this article goes well-beyond the standard convention. The ‘deviation’ from rules, however, has specific objectives. I have critically analyzed Dr. Joshi’s work and in so doing include relevant evidences, debates and questions not just from economics but also from other disciplines such as history and political science.
    Keywords: Critical book-review,dominant perspective in economics,underdevelopment
    JEL: A
    Date: 2018
  4. By: Muriel Gilardone (Condorcet Center for Political Economy, Normandie Univ, UNICAEN, CNRS, CREM, F-14000 Caen, France)
    Keywords: Our paper shows that Sen’s (2009) alternative theory of justice is greatly influenced by 1) his work on famines ; 2) his empirical work on gender inequalities, specifically within the Indian society, that helped him to refine his approach to hunger ; and 3) his involvement in the creation of the human development approach. All these engagements — seemingly completely separate from his contribution to the theories of justice — have, in fact, fostered the formulation of a novel approach in which agency and public reasoning are the core elements.
    JEL: A13 B31 B41 B54 D63 D78 I32
    Date: 2018–06
  5. By: Martin, Ulf
    Abstract: According to Shimshon Bichler and Jonathan Nitzan capital is not an economic quantity but a mode of power; it could be sumarized as: "Capital is power quantified in monetary terms". So, what do we do when we "quantify"? What is the nature of "money" in a capitalist society? And, indeed, what is "power" in the first place? In the following I will try to develop a concept of power as the ability of persons to create particular formations. The kind of formations persons can think of depends on the society a person lives in, which can be identified by what Cornelius Castoriadis called its social imaginary significations (SIS). The core SIS of capitalism is rational mastery operating with computational rationality. Computational rationality in turn rest on a particular understanding of how signification works: operational symbolism, as theories by Sybille Krämer (following Leibniz). When the concept of the SIS of modern rationality was developed in the 1950s and 60s, bureaucracy was seen as its main organisational mode or rational mastery. I will argue that capitalisation and bureaucratisation are the two modes of rational mastery which interact with each other. The paper concludes with deliberations on the future of rational mastery and the possibility of "ways out".
    Date: 2018
  6. By: Hamidin, Dede
    Abstract: This article describes the concept of monetary theory and inflation according to Al Maqrizi's thought. In simple terms, inflation means the rising prices of goods from the prevailing circumstances. Taqiyuddin Abul Abbas Al-Husaini from Maqarizah, Cairo. Or better known as Al-Maqrizi. He said in some parts of his book that inflation is generally divided into two, namely Natural Inflation and Human Error Inflation. This paper will try to compile some of his thoughts - more specifically the problem of monetary theory and inflation - with conventional positivistic opinions and concepts in the same field.
    Keywords: inflation, monetary, al Maqrizi
    JEL: A11
    Date: 2018–06–20
  7. By: Grigoriadis, Theocharis
    Abstract: Competing definitions of justice in Plato's Republic and Aristotle's Politics indicate the existence of two distinct economic systems with different normative priorities. The three-class society of the Platonic economy (guardians, auxiliaries, producers) gives rise to guardians who by virtue are expected to enforce output targets on producers directly or through auxiliaries. The three-class society of the Aristotelian economy (rich, middle, poor) facilitates the emergence of different ruling coalitions and compensates efficiency losses of vertical production processes with political gains derived from representative governance. In the Aristotelian economy, the middle class is better off than in the Platonic economy (auxiliaries), because a just society (polity) is achieved under its rule. I argue that the equilibrium solutions of the Platonic and Aristotelian systems provide the normative foundations for the distinction between plan and market.
    Keywords: Plato,Aristotle,central planning,market mechanism,political regimes,economic systems
    JEL: D63 P11 P14 P16 P21 P26 P52
    Date: 2018
  8. By: Chris Kirrane
    Abstract: Historical examination of the Bretton Woods system allows comparisons to be made with the current evolution of the EMS.
    Date: 2018–07
  9. By: Qazi Haque (School of Economics, University of Adelaide); Nicolas Groshenny (School of Economics, University of Adelaide); Mark Weder (School of Economics, University of Adelaide)
    Abstract: In this paper we examine whether or not monetary policy was a source of instability during the Great Inflation. We focus on a number of attributes that we see relevant for any analysis of the 1970s: cost-push or oil price shocks, positive trend inflation as well as real wage rigidity. We turn our artificial sticky-price economy into a Bayesian model and find that the U.S. economy during the 1970s is best characterized by a high degree of real wage rigidity. Oil price shocks thus created a trade-off between inflation and output-gap stabilization. Faced with this dilemma, the Federal Reserve reacted aggressively to inflation but hardly at all to the output gap, thereby inducing stability, i.e. determinacy.
    Keywords: Monetary policy; Great Inflation; Cost-push shocks; Trend inflation; Sequential Monte Carlo algorithm
    JEL: E32 E52 E58
    Date: 2018–05
  10. By: Okay Gunes (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This work will demonstrate how economic theory can be applied to big data analysis. To do this, I propose two layers of machine learning that use econometric models introduced into a recommender system. The reason for doing so is to challenge traditional recommendation approaches. These approaches are inherently biased due to the fact that they ignore the final preference order for each individual and under-specify the interaction between the socio-economic characteristics of the participants and the characteristics of the commodities in question. In this respect, our hedonic recommendation approach proposes to first correct the internal preferences with respect to the tastes of each individual under the characteristics of given products. In the second layer, the relative preferences across participants are predicted by socio-economic characteristics. The robustness of the model is tested with the MovieLens (100k data consists of 943 users over 1682 movies) run by GroupLens. Our methodology shows the importance and the necessity of correcting the data set by using economic theory. This methodology can be applied for all recommender systems using ratings based on consumer decisions.
    Abstract: Ce travail démontre comment la théorie économique peut être appliquée à l'analyse de Big Data. On propose deux couches d'apprentissage automatique qui utilisent des modèles économétriques introduits dans un système de recommandation. La raison de le faire est de remettre en question les approches de recommandation traditionnelles. Ces approches sont intrinsèquement biaisées en raison du fait qu'elles ignorent l'ordre de préférence final pour chaque individu et sous-spécifient l'interaction entre les caractéristiques socio-économiques des participants et les caractéristiques des produits en question. A cet égard, notre approche de recommandation hédonique propose de corriger d'abord les préférences internes par rapport aux go&ucric;ts de chaque individu en fonction des caractéristiques des produits donnés. Dans la deuxième couche, les préférences relatives entre les participants sont prédites par les caractéristiques socio-économiques. La robustesse du modèle est testée avec les MovieLens (100k données se composent de 943 utilisateurs sur 1682 films) gérés par GroupLens. Notre méthodologie montre l'importance et la nécessité de corriger l'ensemble de données en utilisant la théorie économique. Cette méthodologie peut être appliquée à tous les systèmes de recommandation qui utilisent des votes basées sur les décisions.
    Keywords: Big Data,Machine learning,Recommendation Engine,Econometrics,Données massives,Python,R,Apprentissage automatique,Système recommandation,Econométrie
    Date: 2017–12
  11. By: Martin Paldam (Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, Denmark)
    Abstract: The paper analyzes the structure of strategies of economic research on a sample of all regular research papers in 10 general interest journals every 5th year from 1997 to 2017. It is 3,415 papers, with an annual upward trend of 3.3%. I have classified the papers into eight categories: The fraction in theory and empirics are almost equal large. Most empiric papers use the classic strategy, which derives an operational model from theory and run regressions. Several trends are highly significant - notably two main ones: The fraction of theoretical papers has fallen by 26 pp (percentage points), while the fraction of papers using the classic strategy has increased by 15 pp. Many papers using the classic strategy have been analyzed using meta-analysis, which show that the typical paper exaggerate the results reported substantially. There is no reason to believe that other strategies have smaller problems.
    JEL: A14 B41
    Date: 2018–06–28
  12. By: Balliester, Thereza.; Elsheikhi, Adam.
    Abstract: An enormous amount of literature has emerged over the last few years in the context of the “Future of Work”. Academics, think tanks and policy makers have fuelled rich discussions about how the future of work might look like and how we can shape it. Indeed, labour markets in developing and developed countries are likely to undergo major transformations in the next years and decades. However, despite a growing body of research in this area, there exists no universally accepted definition of what exactly the “Future of Work” encompasses and what the most relevant drivers are. Accordingly, there is a vast variety of themes and methods covered by the literature on the Future of Work. Few papers cut across a multidimensional analysis of the different potential drivers of change. This literature review provides the first systematic and synoptic overview of topics discussed under the umbrella of the “Future of Work”. It not only highlights the trends of the most important drivers as discussed in existing studies,it also defines what the expected outcomes of the future of work might be. The review first devises a structure based on key labour market dimensions and then categorises findings from the literature conditioned on such dimensions. It also contains an assessment on the coverage of the studies on the future of work and perceived limitations and thematic gaps.
    Keywords: future of work, work organization
    Date: 2018
  13. By: Jeri, Ramsito
    Abstract: Al-Ghazali is a scholar whose ideas are concerned with the state of society. Some of his work deals with the improvement of social life at that time. The writing of this article aims to examine the work of Al Ghazali and connect it with the economic and political situation in the life of Al-Ghazali. The method used is the descriptive method. The results show that Al-Ghazali is a scholar who cares about the problems of society, including the economic problems of society.
    Keywords: economic law, al Ghazali, Islamic economy, economic thinking
    JEL: B00
    Date: 2018–03–01
  14. By: Stolzenburg, Ulrich
    Abstract: In einem Vollreservesystem verlieren Geschäftsbanken die Möglichkeit, Geld aus dem Nichts zu schöpfen und sich mit Sichteinlagen ihrer Kunden zu refinanzieren. Ein Systemwechsel hätte Vor- und Nachteile. Die hervorstechenden Vorteile liegen bei einer höheren Finanzstabilität und höheren Geldschöpfungsgewinnen für den Staat. Außerdem könnte die Geldmengenentwicklung genauer kontrolliert werden, allerdings würden die Zinsen im Gegenzug als geldpolitisches Instrument verloren gehen und stärker schwanken. Nachteilig wären benötigte zusätzliche Regulierungen, die eine Umgehung des Vollreservesystems verhindern. Zudem sind steigende Kosten für Finanzdienstleistungen und eine wahrscheinliche Anpassungskrise des Bankensektors zu erwarten, was zunächst die Realwirtschaft belasten dürfte. Das Vollgeldkonzept nach Huber, das im Juni 2018 Gegenstand einer Schweizer Volksabstimmung ist, kombiniert ein Vollreservesystem mit Nettogeld. Unter dem Strich ist die Vollreserve eine spannende Alternative zum gegenwärtigen Geldsystem, das aber, wenn überhaupt, nur schrittweise eingeführt werden sollte.
    Keywords: Vollreserve,Teilreservesystem,Vollgeld,Geldsystem,full reserve,fractional reserve,positive money,monetary system
    Date: 2018
  15. By: Chen, Si; Schildberg-Hörisch, Hannah
    Abstract: The motivation value of confidence postulates that individual effort provision is increasing in beliefs on one's own productivity. This relationship also holds for overconfident individuals who have exaggerated productivity beliefs (motivation value of overconfidence). We present first empirical evidence on the existence of a motivation value of absolute overconfidence that many microeconomic models build on. Moreover, we document that debiasing information increases the accuracy of productivity beliefs of overconfident individuals but comes at the cost of diminished effort provision - a result that is of obvious relevance for many contexts such as labor relations or learning at school. As a further conceptual contribution, we offer a novel strategy for identifying significant overconfidence at the individual level.
    Keywords: overconfidence,effort provision,laboratory experiment
    JEL: C91 D91
    Date: 2018

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