nep-hme New Economics Papers
on Heterodox Microeconomics
Issue of 2026–04–06
twenty papers chosen by
Carlo D’Ippoliti, Università degli Studi di Roma “La Sapienza”


  1. Gender homogeneity in philosophy and methodology of economics: evidence from publication patterns By Alexandre Truc; François Claveau; Catherine Herfeld; Vincent Larivière
  2. Be Water: An Evolutionary Proof for Trend-Following By Yijia Chen
  3. Rephrasing Illusions: an Agent-based model of Madoff's Ponzi scheme By Paolo Pellizzari; Francesca Parpinel
  4. Evidence for estrangement between philosophy of economics and economics By François Claveau; Jacob Hamel-Mottiez; Alexandre Truc; Conrad Heilmann
  5. Between Adam Smith’s Self-Love and the Impartial Spectator: Ādamiyyah as a Moral Bridge in Human Conscience By Şentürk, Recep; Aysan, Fatma Nur; Aysan, Ahmet Faruk; Özalkan, Seda
  6. A Unified Analytical Framework for Classical Theories of Economic Growth By Antonio Paradiso; Claudio Sardoni; Andrea Teglio
  7. The Disciplinary Mobility of Core Behavioral Economists By Alexandre Truc
  8. Corporate financialization in the age of asset managers: Emerging traits of financial imperialism By Krystian Bua; Giovanni Dosi; Costas Lapavitsas; Maria Enrica Virgillito
  9. The Unequal Exchange between Nations By Pierre Le Masne
  10. Keynes's ideas for a regulated economy: Inspiration for ecological transformation By Heine, Michael; Herr, Hansjörg
  11. Conflict inflation without (explicit) unemployment By Eric Kemp-Benedict
  12. Free Information Disrupts Even Bayesian Crowds By Jonas Stein; Shannon Cruz; Davide Grossi; Martina Testori
  13. Mental Models of Causal Structure in Economics and Psychology By Sandro Ambuehl; Rahul Bhui; Heidi C. Thysen
  14. Transformations of Science and Technology since 1800. Conceptual framework, preliminary results, and a glossary from the DFG Research Training Group 2696. By Heinze, Thomas; Achermann, Dania; Dardashti, Radin; Krömer, Ralf; Leuschner, Anna; Morel, Thomas; Overkamp, Anne Sophie; Remmert, Volker; Schiemann, Gregor; Sieben, Anna
  15. An historical definition of behavioural economics: old/new behavioural economics and its relationship to experimental economics By Alexandre Truc
  16. Trade, global outsourcing and (de)industrialisation, 1995−2019 Volume I: Stylised facts and employment dynamics By Escaith, Hubert
  17. Interpreting diffusion curves in sociotechnical transitions: how to use S-curves without fooling yourself By Tankwa, Brendon
  18. Causality by Other Means: Constructing the Settler Colonial Determination of Health By Wispelwey, Bram; Ray, Lana; Hamideh, Dina; De La Torre, Steven; Bahour, Nadine; Rogers, Artair; Mills, David; Hekler, Eric
  19. Multilateral Market Power in Input-Output Networks By Matteo Bizzarri
  20. An analytical model of Disequilibrium and decentralized productive Exploration By Nazaria Solferino

  1. By: Alexandre Truc (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur); François Claveau (UdeS - Université de Sherbrooke = University of Sherbrooke [Sherbrooke]); Catherine Herfeld (Leibniz Universität Hannover = Leibniz University Hannover); Vincent Larivière (UdeM - Université de Montréal)
    Abstract: This study examines gender diversity among authors in philosophy and methodology of economics, comparing it to the disciplines of economics and philosophy. Using bibliometric methods, we find that philosophy and methodology of economics, as an interdisciplinary field, consistently had a lower share of women authors than its parent disciplines, which are the two social sciences and humanities disciplines that are the furthest from gender parity. Although homogeneity compounding generally characterizes the whole field of philosophy and methodology of economics, one small and temporary subfield, making contributions to heterodox economics, structural realism, and the discussion on pluralism in economics, constituted a pocket of gender diversity. Alongside a more general discussion of possible reasons behind the striking gender imbalance in the field, we also elaborate on possible reasons for the limited size and duration of this pocket of diversity.
    Keywords: Scientometrics, diversity, gender, philosophy of economics, bibliometrics
    Date: 2025–07–29
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05543110
  2. By: Yijia Chen
    Abstract: The proliferation of diverse, high-leverage trading instruments in modern financial markets presents a complex, "noisy" environment, leading to a critical question: which trading strategies are evolutionarily viable? To investigate this, we construct a large-scale agent-based model, "MAS-Utopia, " comprising 10, 000 agents with five distinct archetypes. This society is immersed in five years of high-frequency data under a counterfactual baseline: zero transaction friction and a robust Unconditional Basic Income (UBI) safety net. The simulation reveals a powerful evolutionary convergence. Strategies that attempt to fight the market's current - namely Mean-Reversion ("buy-the-dip") - prove structurally fragile. In contrast, the Trend-Following archetype, which adapts to the market's flow, emerges as the dominant phenotype. Translating this finding, we architect an LLM-driven system that emulates this successful logic. Our findings offer profound implications, echoing the ancient wisdom of "Be Water": for investors, it demonstrates that survival is achieved not by rigid opposition, but by disciplined alignment with the prevailing current; for markets, it critiques tools that encourage contrarian gambling; for society, it underscores the stabilizing power of economic safety nets.
    Date: 2026–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.29593
  3. By: Paolo Pellizzari (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice); Francesca Parpinel (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice)
    Abstract: In light of the Madoff case, we present an Agent-Based Model of a Ponzi scheme. Agents are initially inclined to invest in the scam because they believe the wealth will increase, even if the fraudster dissipates it without any investment. We stress that the main characteristic of such schemes is the growing discrepancy between the perceived wealth and the actual total amount of money in the impostor's possession. The tendency gradually reverses and more agents withdraw their wealth (and made-up profits) if trust is lost as a result of hearing negative news about the economy. We look at how long it takes to expose the fraud and file for bankruptcy in relation to the volume of news that enters the market. We also look into the impact of a special agent dubbed Markopolos (inspired by a genuine personage) on the time to bankruptcy because of his capacity to quickly "convince" the agents he encounters to disinvest. Although the Markopolos effect seems to be statistically significant, it is not very strong when it comes to the results of a news flow and the subsequent widespread loss of faith and redemptions.
    Keywords: Agent-Based Model, Ponzi Schemes, NetLogo
    JEL: C63 C88 D83 K42 G11
    Date: 2026
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2026:10
  4. By: François Claveau (UdeS - Université de Sherbrooke = University of Sherbrooke [Sherbrooke]); Jacob Hamel-Mottiez (ULaval - Université Laval [Québec]); Alexandre Truc (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur); Conrad Heilmann (Erasmus University Rotterdam)
    Abstract: We present bibliometric evidence for increasing estrangement between the philosophy of economics and economics itself. Our analysis centers on research articles published in the Journal of Economic Methodology (JEM) between 1994 and 2021. We analyze the citations within these research articles, in particular with respect to the citations of economics. Our results are fourfold. (1) The share of economic citations in JEM articles has been decreasing. (2) The remaining economic citations in JEM articles are increasingly older relative to citation patterns within economics. (3) The profile of economic citations in JEM articles is increasingly dissimilar when compared to what is cited within economics. (4) There is decreasing diversity with regards to the share of attention towards different economic subfields in the articles published in JEM when compared to economics. We discuss interpretations of this evidence for estrangement between philosophy of economics and economics.
    Keywords: B20, scientometrics, bibliometrics, digital humanities, diversity, philosophy of economics
    Date: 2025–07–14
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05543086
  5. By: Şentürk, Recep; Aysan, Fatma Nur; Aysan, Ahmet Faruk; Özalkan, Seda
    Abstract: This article proposes a novel moral synthesis between Adam Smith’s Enlightenment conception of the impartial spectator and the Abrahamic concept of Ādamiyyah. It argues that while Smith’s theory offers a robust model of internal moral regulation, its reliance on socially constructed norms leaves it vulnerable to moral relativism and cultural fragmentation. In contrast, Ādamiyyah, rooted in Qur’anic anthropology, provides a fixed ontological foundation for human dignity, affirming rights and duties by virtue of being human. Through a comparative philosophical methodology, this paper demonstrates that Ādamiyyah can validate self-regard as sacred and universal, while also anchoring the impartial spectator in a transcendent framework of accountability. Ibn Khaldūn’s notion of wāziʿ min anfusihim, the internal restraining power, offers an applied articulation of this synthesis. It mirrors Smith’s impartial spectator as a mechanism of self-regulation, yet grounds it in the Adamic dignity of Ādamiyyah, where moral restraint links the self to both divine accountability and social order. The article further employs the metaphor of the fixed-point theorem from mathematics to conceptualize Ādamiyyah as an invariant moral constant, stabilizing ethical reasoning across cultural and technological transformations. By addressing both individual moral formation and institutional justice, this framework resolves the micro–macro divide in ethics. The paper concludes by proposing that this integration contributes to the emerging discourse on “Rooted Futures, ” a call to design inclusive, ethically grounded futures by drawing on the enduring insights of classical moral traditions, and to renew the Adamic covenant of human dignity that signifies the primordial moral bond between humanity and God vertically, and among human beings horizontally. Reclaiming this covenant not only restores a global moral order grounded in justice, equality, and the inviolability of every person, but also provides the impartial spectator with the transcendent moral anchor it lacked, thereby closing the gap between self-regard and universal moral responsibility.
    Keywords: Ādamiyyah; Impartial Spectator; Self-Love; Adam Smith; Moral Psychology; Islamic Ethics; Comparative Ethics; Ibn Khaldun; Fixed-point theorem.
    JEL: A13 B12 D63 P16 Z12
    Date: 2026
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128309
  6. By: Antonio Paradiso (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice); Claudio Sardoni (Sapienza University of Rome); Andrea Teglio (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice)
    Abstract: This article develops a discrete-time model of economic growth inspired by classical thought, which unifies within a single formal framework the fundamental insights of Adam Smith, David Ricardo, and Thomas Robert Malthus. On the analytical level, the model allows for: (i) deriving a compact relationship between the output growth rate and the effective net profit rate, as well as an economic relevance condition that precludes degenerate trajectories; (ii) characterizing the distribution of income between profits and rents as a function of technological parameters (labor productivity, land–labor ratio, unit rent), highlighting the role of the reinvested profit share; (iii) specifying three variants—Smithian, Ricardian, and Malthusian— obtained solely by modifying the rule governing labor productivity formation and/or population dynamics. The model provides a unified formal framework to represent and compare the three main classical perspectives on growth, elucidating the connection between intertemporal dynamics and income distribution through a tool suitable for both theoretical analysis and numerical simulation.
    Keywords: Classical economic growth; Growth regimes; Structural change; Nonlinear dynamics; Malthusian trap
    JEL: B12 N13 O11 O41 C62
    Date: 2026
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2026:12
  7. By: Alexandre Truc (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur)
    Abstract: Disciplinary mobility occurs when researchers publish outside their disciplines of origin. It is an important mechanism of interdisciplinarity and knowledge transfer. Behavioral economics (BE) was founded by two psychologists, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, who used disciplinary mobility to influence economics. In this article, we study the disciplinary mobility of eight core behavioral economists to better understand how it has influenced the early development of BE and the interdisciplinary practices of later behavioral economists. Besides the movement of psychologists toward the core of economics, we identify an outward movement of economists away from the discipline. This movement away from economics has allowed some behavioral economists to escape some of the normative traditions of economics while establishing new forms of scientific legitimacy for economists. This has enabled them to push the frontiers of economics and promote a more radical approach to BE at the cost of an increasingly weaker relationship with the core concerns of economics.
    Abstract: La mobilité disciplinaire est le fait de publier hors de sa discipline d'origine. Il s'agit d'un mécanisme important d'interdisciplinarité et de transfert de connaissances. L'économie comportementale (EC) a été créée par deux psychologues, Daniel Kahneman et Amos Tversky, qui ont utilisé la mobilité disciplinaire pour influencer l'économie. Dans cet article, nous étudions la mobilité disciplinaire de huit économistes comportementaux afin de mieux comprendre comment cette mobilité a influencé le développement et les pratiques interdisciplinaires de l'EC. Outre le mouvement des psychologues vers le cœur de l'économie, nous identifions aussi un mouvement de certains économistes vers d'autres disciplines. Ce mouvement d'éloignement a permis à certains économistes comportementaux de trouver de nouvelles sources de légitimité scientifique dans d'autres disciplines, tout en échappant à certaines traditions normatives de l'économie. Cela leur a permis de repousser les frontières de l'économie et de promouvoir une approche plus radicale de l'EC au prix d'une relation de plus en plus ténue avec l'économie .
    Keywords: Behavioral Economics, Interdisciplinarity, Social Network Analysis
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05543132
  8. By: Krystian Bua (Institute of Economics, Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, Pisa, Italy); Giovanni Dosi (Institute of Economics, Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, Pisa, Italy); Costas Lapavitsas (Department of Economics, SOAS University of London. Russell Square, London WC1H 0XG, UK); Maria Enrica Virgillito (Department of Economic Policy, Universita` Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milan, Italy; Institute of Economics, Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, Pisa, Italy)
    Abstract: This article contributes to the literature on corporate financialization by examining the role of asset man- agers. Although these new capitalist enterprises have been an object of investigation, a clear understanding of their importance at the global scale, penetration across industries, ramification across firms, and system- wide implications remains an evolving area of research. With these aims, we first highlight three shifts in the contemporary organization of finance associated with the rise of asset management: the weakening of finance’s intermediation function, the change in the locus of financial influence, and the reconfiguration of the mechanisms underpinning contemporary imperialism. We then provide a newly compiled dataset that maps the ownership stakes of the asset management industry within the universe of billion-dollar companies between 2013 and 2025 and quantify how large current levels of common ownership, that originates from asset managers’ holdings, are in the global corporate sector. Accounting for market and relative investor concentration, and overlapping ownership, we show that the capacity of asset management to influence vir- tually every aspect of production and investment has grown exponentially over time, spanning industries, sectors, and macro-regions. Given our empirical analysis, we provide new evidence that the pervasiveness of common ownership driven by portfolio managers has first-order implications for the restructuring of U.S. hegemonic power in the post-2008 global economic order.
    Keywords: Asset manager capitalism, Political economy, Finance, Common ownership, Network analysis, Imperialism
    JEL: D23 F54 G34 P12
    Date: 2026–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:soa:wpaper:273
  9. By: Pierre Le Masne (UFR Sciences économiques [Poitiers] - Université de Poitiers – Faculté de Sciences économiques - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers, LéP [Poitiers] - Laboratoire d'économie de Poitiers [UR 13822] - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers)
    Abstract: The Unequal Exchange between Nations: We introduce the various forms of the unequal exchange between nations. The unequal exchange, at first economic and concerning labour, is also ecological and monetary. We insist on the economic form, but the explanation differs from Arghiri Emmanuel. The ecological and monetary forms of unequal exchange are associated to the economic form. We insist on the economical unequal exchange that entails three sides: dominating countries perceive a rent on imports from low-salaries countries, a surplus-profit on some exports towards these countries, and FDI revenues. An application shows that an important part of the profit of France is coming from low-salaries countries.
    Abstract: L'article présente les différentes formes de l'échange inégal entre les nations. L'échange inégal est d'abord économique, portant alors sur le travail, mais peut aussi être écologique et monétaire. La dimension économique de l'échange inégal est privilégiée, mais l'explication diffère de celle d'Arghiri Emmanuel. La forme monétaire et la forme écologique de l'échange inégal sont associées à sa forme économique. L'échange inégal économique a trois facettes : les pays dominants perçoivent une rente en produits importés provenant des pays à bas salaires, réalisent un surprofit rentier sur certaines exportations vers ces pays, touchent enfin des revenus de l'IDE. Une application montre qu'une part importante du profit de la France vient des pays à bas salaires.
    Keywords: Imperialism, FDI Revenues, Arghiri Emmanuel, Unequal Exchange, Rent on Imports, Global Value Chain, Impérialisme, Rente sur importations, Chaine de valeur mondiale, Échange inégal, Revenus de l'IDE
    Date: 2025–03–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05548085
  10. By: Heine, Michael; Herr, Hansjörg
    Abstract: John Maynard Keynes clearly recognized the inherent crisis-proneness of capitalist economies and that, for the most part, they did not represent a meritocracy. The lion's share of non-labour income in the form of interest, dividends, or profit distributions is pocketed by households that do not contribute to any entrepreneurial activity. According to Keynes' idea, large corporations should be socialized to control investment. To guarantee sufficient consumer demand, a relatively equal distribution of income and wealth, as well as the elimination of income that is not backed by any performance in the form of work or entrepreneurial activity, is needed. Public utilities such as water supply and local public transportation should remain under the ownership of local authorities. Keynes saw balanced trade and current accounts as an element of fair globalization. International capital flows should be largely controlled. He provided important elements of an ecological transformation and the macroeconomic management of an ecologically and socially sustainable economy.
    Date: 2026
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:gluwps:339601
  11. By: Eric Kemp-Benedict
    Abstract: Since its introduction by Rowthorn (1977), the idea that inflation is always and everywhere a result of conflicting distributional claims has become widely accepted by post-Keynesians. This paper contributes to the literature with a proposed behavioural rule that abstracts from both unemployment and labour participation. While they are both presumed to be causally relevant, the causal chains are captured through a rule in which inflation is driven by the deviation between the growth rate of labour demand and that of the working age population. The proposed behavioural rule can be incorporated into a variety of models. One is proposed for concreteness. In the example model, profit-led behaviour produces a stable equilibrium. In the more empirically supported case of wage-led behaviour, stability is not guaranteed, but becomes more likely under cost share-induced technological change.
    Keywords: conflict inflation, post-Keynesian, participation rate, cost share-induced technological change
    JEL: E11 E12 E31
    Date: 2026–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2609
  12. By: Jonas Stein; Shannon Cruz; Davide Grossi; Martina Testori
    Abstract: A core tenet underpinning the conception of contemporary information networks, such as social media platforms, is that users should not be constrained in the amount of information they can freely and willingly exchange with one another about a given topic. By means of a computational agent-based model, we show how even in groups of truth-seeking and cooperative agents with perfect information-processing abilities, unconstrained information exchange may lead to detrimental effects on the correctness of the group's beliefs. If unconstrained information exchange can be detrimental even among such idealized agents, it is prudent to assume it can also be so in practice. We therefore argue that constraints on information flow should be carefully considered in the design of communication networks with substantial societal impact, such as social media platforms.
    Date: 2026–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.01838
  13. By: Sandro Ambuehl; Rahul Bhui; Heidi C. Thysen
    Abstract: A rapidly growing literature in economics studies how people form beliefs about the causal structures that link economic variables, and what happens when those beliefs are mistaken. We survey this literature and connect it to a large body of related research in cognitive science. After providing an accessible introduction to causal Directed Acyclic Graphs, the dominant modeling approach, we review theory and evidence addressing three nested questions: how individuals reason within known structures, how they estimate their parameters, and how they learn causal structures. We then discuss methodological challenges and describe applications in microeconomics, macroeconomics, political economy, and business.
    Date: 2026–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.29070
  14. By: Heinze, Thomas (University of Wuppertal); Achermann, Dania; Dardashti, Radin; Krömer, Ralf; Leuschner, Anna; Morel, Thomas; Overkamp, Anne Sophie; Remmert, Volker; Schiemann, Gregor; Sieben, Anna
    Abstract: The DFG Research Training Group 2696 “Transformations of Science and Technology since 1800: Topics, Processes, Institutions” (RTG 2696) at the University of Wuppertal investigates how scientific knowledge and technological capabilities change over time without reducing modes of change to either path dependency or revolutions. Instead, it focuses on transformations as being multidimensional and often gradual-cumulative, while recognizing critical junctures. The program’s shared framework employs varieties of institutionalist approaches (such as Historical Institutionalism, Sociological Institu-tionalism) across three interacting dimensions: topics (theories, concepts, tacit knowledge), processes (experimental, communicative, application-oriented practices), and institutions (universities, laboratories, education systems, infrastructures). Substantively, the RTG addresses field formation and disciplinary change; shifts in epistemic practices; material and technical infrastructures; and narratives of the new and the old, using state-of-the-art methods grounded in history, sociology, and philosophy. These include comparative-historical case studies; qualitative and quantitative methods of empirical social research; conceptual analysis; as well as argumentative reconstruction. Interim results comprise completed dissertations on high-energy physics, medical skills labs, observational standards, and the classification of personality disorders, as well as ongoing projects on the development of academic disciplines (such as mathematics, psychology, economics, and biology), university funding and stratification, space tech-nology, technological persistence, and gendered historiography. Together, these studies aim to test and refine the RTG’s shared vocabulary, enabling synthesis and comparison in the study of transformations (glossary).
    Date: 2026–03–24
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:9sg34_v1
  15. By: Alexandre Truc (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur)
    Date: 2025–02–20
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05543096
  16. By: Escaith, Hubert
    Abstract: This volume is the first part of a two−volumes background paper prepared from the perspective of a wider research project on deindustrialisation. It aims at contributing to the empirical analysis of manufacturing industries in the course of economic maturing, searching for the salient features that accompanied the most recent wave of globali-sation. In particular, we search for tipping points in industrial output and employment, with a special attention to the role of trade and outsourcing in an international context. In addition, we contribute also to the literature on truncated industrialisation and premature deindustrialisation in developing countries. Our findings highlight three stylised facts: deindustrialisation is structural but uneven across regions; its gendered impacts are significant; and outsourcing alters the composition of industrial output and labour without halting their overall relative decline. Heterogeneity dominates at regional level; the process is global in its drivers yet local in its manifestations. An implication of the “global village” created by hyper−globalisation is that, for many aspects except employment, the industrial economy functions like a world–wide closed economy. With two implications in terms of deindustrialisation: creative destruction may not happen anymore in the same national territory; the old issue of effective demand may return as a limiting factor, squeezed as it is between amazing productivity improvement and a demand for manufactured goods that remains largely constrained. This volume identifies stylised facts and patterns at aggregate and sectoral production and employment levels; it is completed by a second volume that looks inside the pro-duction process itself and its sub–systems.
    Keywords: industrialisation; global manufacturing; employment; input−output analysis; tertiarization and servicification; regional integration
    JEL: C67 F14 F16 J16 L60 O14 O47
    Date: 2026–03–16
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128371
  17. By: Tankwa, Brendon
    Abstract: S-curves are widely used to describe and forecast technological change, especially in debates on energy transitions, emerging technologies, and industrial transformation. Yet they are also widely misused. This perspective argues that the main problem usually does not lie in the curve itself, but in how it is interpreted. It develops a practical framework for reading diffusion curves in sociotechnical transitions, organised around six recurring sources of error: level, stage, object, purpose, interpretation, and horizon. The article shows why cumulative stocks, annual additions, market shares, and substitution processes should not be treated as interchangeable; why formative-phase technologies are especially vulnerable to overconfident curve fitting; and why levels, logs, and growth rates imply different notions of speed and acceleration. Drawing on classic diffusion theory, forecasting research, and examples from solar, wind, and other technologies, it argues that S-curves are best treated as empirical regularities rather than causal mechanisms or universal laws. Used carefully, they provide disciplined summaries, useful benchmarks, and clearer interpretations of transition dynamics. Used carelessly, they can turn noisy, path-dependent, and politically contested processes into stories of inevitability.
    Keywords: S-curves, diffusion curves, sociotechnical transitions, innovation diffusion, technological forecasting, energy transitions, technology adoption
    Date: 2026–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amz:wpaper:2026-09
  18. By: Wispelwey, Bram; Ray, Lana; Hamideh, Dina; De La Torre, Steven; Bahour, Nadine; Rogers, Artair; Mills, David; Hekler, Eric
    Abstract: Settler colonialism is increasingly recognized as a structural force shaping Indigenous health, yet analytic frameworks in the health sciences have limitations in representing its causal dynamics. While Indigenous communities have long identified settler colonialism as foundational in shaping health and wellbeing, conventional epidemiologic approaches rely on causal assumptions—linearity, discrete exposures, and stable pathways—that are misaligned with its theorized properties as a dynamic, transtemporal, and adaptive social process. This misalignment contributes to epistemic exclusion, whereby insights from Indigenous epistemologies and settler colonial studies cannot be represented, remaining analytically unobservable within dominant methodological paradigms. We argue that addressing this gap requires achieving epistemic fit across three interdependent layers: teleological—orienting inquiry toward relationality rather than dominance; ontological—mapping settler colonialism’s higher-order functions onto context-specific forms; and epistemological—selecting causal representations adequate to the phenomenon’s complexity. Drawing on theory construction methodology, we develop a provisional framework for the settler colonial determination of health and outline how its causal architecture may be represented through multi-causal, feedback-informed approaches. We further identify concrete implications for empirical research, including the use of configurational causal logics and dynamic modeling strategies to capture interaction, emergence, and historical dependence. By positioning settler colonialism as a conditioning causal structure rather than a discrete determinant or indecipherable past episode, this framework extends existing public health approaches and provides a foundation for developing empirically tractable models that better align with Indigenous epistemologies and lived experience. Advancing such approaches is essential for generating explanations—and ultimately interventions—adequate to the complexity of health inequities in settler colonial contexts.
    Date: 2026–03–24
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:b5xyp_v2
  19. By: Matteo Bizzarri
    Abstract: This paper models firm-to-firm trade in a production network as a set of double auctions. Firms have multilateral market power, namely, can affect prices in both input and output markets. The size and division of surplus are endogenous and depend only on technology, network position, and consumer preferences. The standard simplifying assumption of price-taking on input markets (unilateral market power) has systematic effects: it underestimates the final price and overestimates the surplus going upstream. These phenomena affect the model predictions for the welfare impact of mergers.
    Date: 2026–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.21932
  20. By: Nazaria Solferino
    Abstract: This paper studies the economic role of persistent dispersion in allocations across agents. We develop a tractable model in which firms allocate resources under imperfect information and behavioral updating, generating sustained heterogeneity in beliefs and actions. While dispersion induces static misallocation, it also fosters decentralized experimentation, allowing the economy to explore a broader set of productive opportunities. We show that the economy converges to a stationary equilibrium with strictly positive dispersion and that, under plausible conditions, such disequilibrium can dominate the perfectly coordinated benchmark. The model provides a novel interpretation of observed dispersion in productivity and returns as reflecting both inefficiency and productive exploration. It also yields testable predictions linking dispersion to growth and innovation dynamics.
    Date: 2026–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.00718

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