nep-hme New Economics Papers
on Heterodox Microeconomics
Issue of 2024‒01‒08
24 papers chosen by
Carlo D’Ippoliti, Università degli Studi di Roma “La Sapienza”

  1. Richard Arena on Sraffa and Wittgenstein By Davis, John B.; ;
  2. Technical change and the monetary circuit: an input-output stock-flow consistent dynamic model By Marco Veronese Passarella
  3. Adaptive Agents and Data Quality in Agent-Based Financial Markets By Colin M. Van Oort; Ethan Ratliff-Crain; Brian F. Tivnan; Safwan Wshah
  4. «Сознательно-товарищеские» начала организационно-управленческой модели А. Богданова By Kleiner, George
  5. Cooperative associations: frameworks of distributed leadership for collective digital innovation By Louis Cousin; Luc K. Audebrand
  6. Beyond the North-South binarity: Social neutrality as a commodity ethic in globalisation By Adolphe Badiel
  7. The Trajectories of Institutionalisation of the Social and Solidarity Economy in France and Korea: When Social Innovation Renews Public Action and Contributes to the Objectives of Sustainable Development By Eric Bidet; Nadine Richez-Battesti
  8. Системная парадигма как теоретическая основа стратегического управления экономикой в современных условиях By Kleiner, George
  9. Agency and Structure in Regional Development: In Search of a Social Science Research Programme By Grillitsch, Markus; Sotarauta, Markku
  10. Доказательное моделирование как перспективный инструмент научного исследования социально-экономических процессов By Kleiner, George
  11. Decolonizing Development: Unpacking Post-Colonialism in South Asia By Hoang, Nga; Zhen, Zhao; Shaturaev, Jakhongir
  12. On the coevolution of cooperation and social institutions By Salazar Restrepo, Verónica; Szentes, Balázs
  13. Towards a Public Sustainable Finance Paradigm for the Green Transition By Golka, Philipp; Murau, Steffen; Thie, Jan-Erik
  14. How culture displaced structural reform: problem definition, marketization, and neoliberal myths in bank regulation By Mikes, Anette; Power, Michael
  15. A Reconsideration of Microeconomic Foundations of Macroeconomics By YOSHIKAWA Hiroshi; ARATA Yoshiyuki
  16. The becoming of worker mothers: the untold narratives of an identity transition By Garcia-Lorenzo, Lucia; Carrasco, Lorena; Ahmed, Zehra; Morgan, Alice; Sznajder, Kim; Eggert, Leonie
  17. Tracing the Genesis of the Split between Western and Soviet Marxism: the Case of Karl Korsch and Georg Lukacs in the 1920s Debate over ‘Ultra-Leftism’ By Vlada V. Asadulaeva
  18. Data and methods for building a disaggregated EU investment matrix By NORMAN Ana; TAMBA Marie; WEITZEL Matthias
  19. Pasinetti, Debt Sustainability and (Green) Structural Change at the Time of Global Finance: An Emerging and Developing Countries’ Perspective By Botta, Alberto; Spinola, Danilo; Yajima, Giuliano; Porcile, Gabriel
  20. Hierarchical Structure of Uncertainty By Takanori Adachi
  21. The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Complexity By MODIS, THEODORE
  22. Epistemic Limits of Empirical Finance: Causal Reductionism and Self-Reference By Daniel Polakow; Tim Gebbie; Emlyn Flint
  23. Human-Robot Interactions: Insights from Experimental and Evolutionary Social Sciences By Eric Schniter
  24. Competing narratives in the Swedish 1929 deposit loss-debate By Wendschlag, Mikael

  1. By: Davis, John B.; ; (Department of Economics Marquette University; Department of Economics Marquette University)
    Abstract: This paper discusses Richard Arena’s insightful and original contributions to interpreting the important interaction between Piero Sraffa and Ludwig Wittgenstein. It discusses this in terms of dilemmas they each encountered in transitions in their thinking in the 1930s, emphasizes the influence of Sraffa’s unpublished “Surplus Product†text, compares Sraffa’s critique of “natural science point of view†and Wittgenstein’s critique of logical form, and compares Sraffa’s later understanding of the relationship between production and distribution and Wittgenstein’s later understanding of forms of life and language-games. The paper argues this thinking opened up a approach to economic philosophy in connection with the distinction between open and closed systems. Arena has been a leading proponent open systems thinking in economics. He thus reminds us, in Wittgenstein’s words – ‘Don’t think, but look!’ – or look beyond what one might think ones sees in a closed systems way.
    Keywords: Arena, Sraffa, Wittgenstein, surplus product, language games, open-closed systems
    JEL: B24 B30 B40 B51
    Date: 2023–12
  2. By: Marco Veronese Passarella
    Abstract: This paper is organised as follows. Firstly, a simple but complete input-output stock-flow consistent dynamic model of a monetary economy of production is developed, in which credit money is endogenously created by commercial banks, the production sector is split into different industries, and unit prices align with their reproduction values in the long run, while supplies gradually adjust to meet final demands for products. Secondly, after discussing its key features, the model is used to test the impact of technical change on industry-specific financial requirements and profitability
    Keywords: Monetary Circuit, Stock-Flow Consistent Models, Input-Output Analysis
    JEL: E16 E17 C67 D57
    Date: 2023–09
  3. By: Colin M. Van Oort; Ethan Ratliff-Crain; Brian F. Tivnan; Safwan Wshah
    Abstract: We present our Agent-Based Market Microstructure Simulation (ABMMS), an Agent-Based Financial Market (ABFM) that captures much of the complexity present in the US National Market System for equities (NMS). Agent-Based models are a natural choice for understanding financial markets. Financial markets feature a constrained action space that should simplify model creation, produce a wealth of data that should aid model validation, and a successful ABFM could strongly impact system design and policy development processes. Despite these advantages, ABFMs have largely remained an academic novelty. We hypothesize that two factors limit the usefulness of ABFMs. First, many ABFMs fail to capture relevant microstructure mechanisms, leading to differences in the mechanics of trading. Second, the simple agents that commonly populate ABFMs do not display the breadth of behaviors observed in human traders or the trading systems that they create. We investigate these issues through the development of ABMMS, which features a fragmented market structure, communication infrastructure with propagation delays, realistic auction mechanisms, and more. As a baseline, we populate ABMMS with simple trading agents and investigate properties of the generated data. We then compare the baseline with experimental conditions that explore the impacts of market topology or meta-reinforcement learning agents. The combination of detailed market mechanisms and adaptive agents leads to models whose generated data more accurately reproduce stylized facts observed in actual markets. These improvements increase the utility of ABFMs as tools to inform design and policy decisions.
    Date: 2023–11
  4. By: Kleiner, George
    Abstract: The publication is devoted to theoretical foundations in the field of system socio¬economic space, reflected in the works of Russian philosopher and encyclopedist A.A.Bogdanov. Based on the concept of socially-organized experience, reflecting basic principles about the laws of organization, acting in technology (organization of things), economy (organization of people), politics (organization of ideas), the article substantiates the idea of the special role of space and time, first proposed by A.Bogdanov in relation to economic systems and system economic theory. In this conceptual context searching for new approaches and rethinking of theoretical capital are considered in order to transform economic systems in the direction of increasing their efficiency. It is noted that Bogdanov’s concept is the first scientific concept that integrates the ideas of cybernetics, general systems theory and synergetics. The author draws attention to the Bogdanov’s attempt to generalize the universal organizational laws governing the behavior and structure of fundamentally new complex systems, which is characterized as “universal organizational science.” The article develops a conceptual model of qualitative equilibrium interaction of the basic subsystems of the economic system in the context of information exchange. Based on the presented information model of the economic system in accordance with Bogdanov’s ideas conclusions are drawn that this teaching, in combination with modern systemic economic theory, can become the theoretical basis for general economic analysis. Arguments are given in favor of a revival of interest in understanding the ideas of Bogdanov, in particular in understanding the “space of the economy” and the concept of “conscious cooperation”, which can complement or oppose the concept of competition. His main ideas about a society based on “consciously comradely principles” are noted, which are of scientific interest in the context of regulating the fair and dishonest behavior of economic entities. The article allows us to approach the assessment of the diversity of Bogdanov’s ideas from different positions, reserving the opportunity for each scientist to form his own view and approach to this process of rethinking his many theses and tools.
    Keywords: organizational science, space and time, tectology, economic system, system economic theory, information model, basic subsystems
    JEL: A1 A10
    Date: 2023–04–28
  5. By: Louis Cousin (LITEM - Laboratoire en Innovation, Technologies, Economie et Management (EA 7363) - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne - Université Paris-Saclay - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris], ULaval - Université Laval [Québec], UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne); Luc K. Audebrand (ULaval - Université Laval [Québec])
    Abstract: Digital innovation and transformation have been mainly studied at the level of a single organization: in the cooperative movement, platform cooperative have triggered a lot of attention, with exciting studies about the potentials and limitations about how a digital platform can integrate into a cooperative governance. However, digital innovation at the level of a group of cooperatives, such as automated data-sharing systems, has remained (to our knowledge) unexplored, leaving scholars and practitioners with poor knowledge and material to support a large-scale digital transition of the cooperative movement. This paper aims at contributing to fill this gap by studying how a group of cooperatives or social economy organizations can collectively take leadership over a digital project within the framework of a meta-organization more commonly known as a cooperative association or umbrella organization. To do so, we shaped a theoretical model mobilizing the emerging theory of meta-organizations (Ahrne & Brunsson, 2005) together with concept of distributed leadership (Huxham & Vangen, 2000), and conducted a preliminary qualitative study based on two cases in Quebec. This enables us to identify configurations preventing or supporting the emergence of collective digital projects, by taking into account characteristics of both the meta-organization and its members. We believe that such findings could open a new stream of research on cooperatives adopting interorganizational collaboration as a unit of analysis, and help cooperative practitioners in conducting complex data-sharing innovations.
    Keywords: Cooperatives, Leadership, Innovation, Digital transition, Digital Innovation, Distributed Leadership, Meta-Organization, Cooperative Association, Social Economy
    Date: 2023–07–10
  6. By: Adolphe Badiel (LINCS - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire en études culturelles - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: The commodity is a cultural attribute of some things that have the property of being exchangeable; it has a social trajectory that consists of its election as such or of its exclusion, hence the thesis of its social life. This social life influences the stability of societies. In the era of globalization, reflecting the interconnection of different societies, practices around the commodity tend to obscure this dimension, undermine lifestyles, and generate violence in both production and consumption areas. Globalization is essentially based on an economic conception of the world, at once bipolar and dichotomous, which is proving to be erroneous today. This paper proposes a new understanding of socialization at the global scale and its ethical implications: it argues that world socialization is an extra-social dynamic that has its source in the externalization of social violence. Because ethics has become a direct political action, social neutrality is defended here as the ethical principle of the commodity.
    Abstract: La marchandise est un attribut culturel de certains objets qui ont la propriété d'être échangeables ; elle a une trajectoire sociale qui consiste en son identification comme telle ou en son exclusion, d'où sa biographie sociale. Cette vie sociale influence l'équilibre des sociétés. À l'ère de la globalisation, traduisant une interconnexion des différentes sociétés, les pratiques commerciales tendent à occulter cette dimension, subvertissent les modes de vie et génèrent de la violence dans les zones de production et de consommation. La globalisation fonctionne sur une conception essentiellement économique d'un monde, à la fois bipolaire et dichotomique, qui se révèle erronée de nos jours. Cette approche propose une nouvelle compréhension de la socialisation à l'échelle du monde et en tire ses conséquences éthiques : elle essaie de comprendre la mondialisation comme une dynamique extra-sociale qui prend sa source dans l'externalisation de la violence sociale. Parce que l'éthique est devenue une action politique directe, la neutralité sociale est ici défendue comme le fondement éthique de la marchandise.
    Keywords: globalization, world socialization, North-South binarity, commodity ethics, social neutrality, mondialisation, globalisation, binarité Nord-Sud, éthique de la marchandise, neutralité sociale
    Date: 2023
  7. By: Eric Bidet (ARGUMans - Laboratoire de recherche en gestion Le Mans Université - UM - Le Mans Université); Nadine Richez-Battesti (LEST - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Sociologie du Travail - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This article addresses the issue of the contribution of SSE to the SDGs through a comparative analysis conducted in two countries: France and South Korea. The theoretical perspective adopted is that of public action renewal through a co-production process and the method uses a multidimensional analysis of the institutionalisation of SSE in both surveyed countries. Our results show that, far from a path dependency, there is a convergence process based on an increasing heterogeneity of the SSE dynamics in each of the national contexts. They also reveal that the institutionalisation of SSE reflects two conceptions of social innovation that each characterise the renewal of public action. In Korea, this conception is based on the production of goods and services with a social purpose by private actors, and in France, on co-construction processes that have been widely experimented with by SSE actors but remain unfinished. The result is an original and specific contribution in both countries to the SDGs, although this contribution is not fully explicit and recognised, both in terms of its results and process. This invisibilisation weakens the transformative potential of SSE in its contribution to sustainable development.
    Keywords: Social and Solidarity Economy, International Comparison, South Korea, Social Innovation
    Date: 2022–05
  8. By: Kleiner, George
    Abstract: In the context of the turbulence of the global and national economy and the growing complexity of the interaction of the Russian economy with the Western world, it is necessary to expand the scope and improve the efficiency of organizations’ strategic management at all levels of the economy. Theoretical substantiation of strategic management, its connection with the theory of organization, the theory of the firm, the theory of industrial development and other theories taking into account the specifics of the Russian economy are not sufficiently developed. In this regard, the formation of a theoretical and methodological basis for the development and implementation of strategic management of the domestic economy is of particular relevance. The article substantiates the expediency of using the system paradigm as a theoretical and ideological basis for developing goals, methods and means of strategic management of organizations. The essence of the system paradigm is revealed as a set of systemic methods of perception, cognition and transformation of the economy, including economic theory, economic practice, economic policy and economic management. The role of strategic management as a foundation and source of co-evolutionary development of the economic planning system, including strategic, calendar and operational management, is shown. The necessity and development of new types of strategic management based on the subject area’s non-quantitative (qualitative) target characteristics and focused on managing the organization’s value, spiritual and intellectual spheres are substantiated. As a new component of the theoretical basis of strategic management, the theory of systems’ spiral evolution is put forward, synthesizing the concept of linear sequential development of the system. According to this approach, the system is viewed as a change in the dominant value orientations and the concept of cyclic development of the system as the alternation of four phases of the dominance of the object, environment, process and project system’s complexes. The theoretical significance of the presented developments is associated with the evolution and deepening of a systems approach in economic research. The practical value lies in substantiating the feasibility of expanding the scope of strategic management using systemic tools to improve the efficiency and coordination of management at all levels of the economy.
    Keywords: system paradigm; system worldview; strategic management; planning; theory of spiral evolution; systems analysis; social leadership; economic system.
    JEL: M38 O10
    Date: 2023–04–25
  9. By: Grillitsch, Markus (CIRCLE, Lund University); Sotarauta, Markku (Tampere University)
    Abstract: As a concept, agency stretches from philosophical and meta-theoretical elaborations to studies documenting largely idiosyncratic happenings in a particular empirical context, which could be dismissed as anecdotal. In between, and source for the recent revival of scholarly interest, lies the promise to explain transformation processes, multiplex governance, and varieties in wellbeing and development pathways, which are needed in a world overshadowed by crises. Have studies on agency and structure lived up to the promise? Only partly, we argue, and suggest that we need to develop a common ontological commitment as well as adequate mid-range theories and methods coherent with such a commitment. We suggest critical realism as backbone of such a common ontological commitment and discuss potential ways forward for a social science research programme with emancipatory potential, this is to say to contribute to our capabilities to make a difference in the world.
    Keywords: Agency and structure; regional development; path development; critical realism; social science methodology
    JEL: R00 R10 R50
    Date: 2023–12–11
  10. By: Kleiner, George
    Abstract: Actual problems of developing the methodology of economic-mathematical and information-computer modeling of economic processes and systems are revealed in the paper. Model construction is included in a wide range of studies of ontological, epistemological, ideological and praxeological systems. The problem of coordinating the complexity of the object, apparatus and modeling result is put forward and emphasized. The concept of evidence-based modeling is formulated as a process of constructing and interpreting a mathematical model that ensures the reliability and safety of its application. The principles of evidence-based modeling are given.
    Keywords: modeling methodology, evidence-based modeling, complexity modeling, modeling stages
    JEL: A10 C02
    Date: 2023–07–15
  11. By: Hoang, Nga; Zhen, Zhao; Shaturaev, Jakhongir
    Abstract: This conceptual paper aims to critically examine the colonial legacy and its impact on development in South Asia, with a specific focus on decolonization efforts and the implications for state-building, social inequalities, and cultural preservation. It explores the ideologies and mechanisms of colonial domination and their enduring effects on the region's socio-economic and political landscape. The paper also draws upon indigenous knowledge systems and South Asian philosophical perspectives to propose alternative approaches to development that challenge Eurocentric notions and promote self-reliance, cultural diversity, and sustainable development. Through this investigation, the paper highlights the importance of decolonization for South Asia's emancipation and offers a unique perspective on post-colonial development paradigms.
    Keywords: South Asia, decolonization, post-colonialism, state-building, social inequalities, sustainable development
    JEL: A2 B1 O31
    Date: 2023–02–06
  12. By: Salazar Restrepo, Verónica; Szentes, Balázs
    Abstract: This paper examines an environment inhabited by self-interested individuals and unconditional cooperators. The individuals are randomly paired and engage in the Prisoner's Dilemma Game. Cooperation among players is incentivized by institutional capital, and selfish individuals incur a cost to identify situations where defection goes unpunished. In this environment, we explore the coevolution of types and institutional capital, with both the distribution of types and capital evolving through myopic best-response dynamics. The equilibria are shown to be Pareto-ranked. The main finding is that any equilibrium level of institutional capital exceeds the optimal amount in the long run. Thus, forward-looking optimal institutions not only foster a more cooperative culture but are also more cost-effective compared to the myopically optimal ones.
    Keywords: cooperation; evolutionary dynamics; prisoner's dilemma
    JEL: J1
    Date: 2024–01–01
  13. By: Golka, Philipp; Murau, Steffen; Thie, Jan-Erik
    Abstract: Sustainable finance is often discussed as a solution to the climate crisis, but its impacts are limited and its discourse focusses on mobilizing private investments through public de-risking, without considering direct government action. We argue that this is due to an implicit reference to mainstream economic theory assuming that an active state leads to time inconsistency problems and crowding-out effects. However, these assumptions have been sufficiently refuted as public investments may actually crowd-in private capital. We therefore propose a paradigm shift towards what we call “Public Sustainable Finance”, geared at empowering the role of the state in the Green Transition on the discursive, policy, and political economy levels. Studying the case of Germany, we show how Public Sustainable Finance can be introduced despite tight fiscal regimes. To this end, we propose that – and describe how – the Klima- und Transformationsfonds (KTF) be given its own borrowing powers. By borrowing an average of 23 billion euros annually from 2024 to 2030, the existing financing gap that has been exacerbated following the November 2023 constitutional court ruling can be closed, enabling a more rapid and effective Green Transition.
    Date: 2023–12–01
  14. By: Mikes, Anette; Power, Michael
    Abstract: We use content analysis to show that the diagnosis of the financial crisis of 2007–2009 shifted significantly from a focus on the need for structural change in the banking industry to an emphasis on culture and reform at the organizational level. We consider four overlapping subsystems in which this shift in problem–solution clusters played out—political, regulatory, legal, and consulting—and show that the “structural reform agenda, ” which was initially strong and publicly prominent in the political arena, lost attention. Over time it was displaced by a neoliberal managerialist turn, which watered down or abandoned structural solutions and instead played up a new “culture and conduct reform agenda.” We explain this shift in terms of the marketization of regulation, which—following Mautner (Language and the market society, 1st ed. Routledge, 2010)’s model of interdiscursive alignment—we detect in the shifting language of financial-services reform across the four subsystems in scope. We argue that a neoliberal turn took place with a discursive closure that made the structural reform alternative gradually unsayable and, in the end, unthinkable. At the same time, the discourse turned to embrace the neoliberal agenda, built on the myth of self-regulating actors and markets, manifest in the culture problematic. This managerialist turn was able to mobilise, and be operationalised by, an industry of consultants, whereas structural change came to be seen by regulators as too risky to implement. We claim that these dynamics reveal how a form of “collective strategic ignorance, ” based on powerful institutional myths, was systematically oriented to ignore and reject structural sources of crisis. Finally, we suggest that the observed pattern of displacement—whereby initial calls for structural change become later displaced by managerial and procedural solutions—is common to other social issues, such as audit reform and corporate social responsibility.
    Keywords: neoliberal institutional myths; marketization; culture; risk culture; financial crisis; regulation; social problems
    JEL: E50
    Date: 2023–11–20
  15. By: YOSHIKAWA Hiroshi; ARATA Yoshiyuki
    Abstract: Macroeconomics and microeconomics are fundamentally different. In microeconomics such as industrial organization and market for “lemon†, detailed analysis of motives and strategic behavior of micro-agents is necessary. However, in macroeconomics, such analysis is of no use. To understand macroeconomic phenomena, different methodologies are required. Research programs related to the standard microeconomic foundations of macroeconomics are on the wrong track. Taking RBC, Lucas rational expectations model, labor search theory, and the more recent HANK as examples, this paper shows that the standard microeconomic foundations of macroeconomics rest essentially on unrealistic representative agent assumptions and are not worthy of being called microeconomic foundations. It reconsiders Keynesian economics as an indispensable framework for the analysis of business cycles and argues for a stochastic approach in understanding important macroeconomic phenomena such as distributions of personal incomes and firm growth.
    Date: 2023–11
  16. By: Garcia-Lorenzo, Lucia; Carrasco, Lorena; Ahmed, Zehra; Morgan, Alice; Sznajder, Kim; Eggert, Leonie
    Abstract: Worker mothers still struggle to find a good balance between their care and work identities. Most research on motherhood at work focuses on how organizational structures can enable professional women to find a balance between caring and work identities neglecting their personal experiences and how they understand themselves in relation to both motherhood and work. We propose to use a liminal identity work perspective to explore the identity tensions that professional women experience during their transition into motherhood and how they manage it. To explore this question, we conducted a qualitative study over 2 years with worker mothers in Latin and North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, and Africa. The thematic and narrative analysis of 80 individual narrative interviews shows the emergence of two coexisting identity narratives. The first narrative understands motherhood as a linear process, where women experience liminality, uncertainty, and identity loss but eventually return to work after having aggregated their new worker mother identities during maternity leaves. The second coexisting narrative challenges this linear and finite view by highlighting the transition to motherhood as a continuous, liminoid, and never-ending process. The two narratives are contextualized and managed differently according to the different cultural, historical, and social contexts where they are developed; the overall results present motherhood as a ‘liminoid’ experience that requires constant identity work to navigate the tensions emerging between potentially new and customary identities and behaviors in work contexts.
    Keywords: identity work; liminality; motherhood; narratives; worker mothers; Wiley deal
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2023–12–05
  17. By: Vlada V. Asadulaeva (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Although a certain incommensurability between Soviet and Western Marxism has been assumed in a wide variety of studies, no research has been done on the genesis of the split between the two traditions in the context of the political turmoil of the 1920s. The current study aims to address this issue. By highlighting the commitment of the so-called ‘fathers of Western Marxism’ to the political tactics of left communism, I argue that the tradition of Western Marxism emerged specifically as a philosophical justification for what in the Soviet Union was considered the ‘ultra-left’ political ideology. Further, I demonstrate that that the works of Karl Korsch and Georg Lukacs were read precisely in this light by the Bolshevik philosophers whose criticism marked an important watershed in the genesis of the split between Western and Soviet Marxists.
    Keywords: Western Marxism, Soviet Marxism, Georg Lukacs, Karl Korsch, Left Communism
    JEL: Z00
    Date: 2023
  18. By: NORMAN Ana (European Commission - JRC); TAMBA Marie; WEITZEL Matthias (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: The transition to a net-zero economy will imply significant investments into low carbon technologies. However, macroeconomic models using capital stock investment treatment from GTAP Input-Output data only assumes a generic representation of investment, where all sectors use the same proportion of inputs to build capital stock (plant, equipment and other assets that help in production). This means that general equilibrium effects on upstream sectors producing investments for low carbon technologies may not be fully captured. In this study, we extend the methodology of Tamba el al (2022) to all EU Member States using Eurostat gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) data to build investment matrices with flexible aggregations for non-power generation sectors. In this report, we present investment matrices for all 23 non-power generation sectors of the JRC-GEM-E3 model. In addition, we build investment matrices for 8 power generation sectors using available cost data in the literature. A comparison of the original generic investment vector in the EU and a disaggregated investment matrix for all individual JRC-GEM-E3 sectors confirms that “one size does not fit all”. While a generic investment matrix puts more emphasis on construction (43%) and market services (25%), most sectors in our disaggregated investment matrix put more emphasis on “other equipment goods”.
    Date: 2023–11
  19. By: Botta, Alberto; Spinola, Danilo; Yajima, Giuliano; Porcile, Gabriel
    Abstract: This paper studies the relationship between financial integration, external debt sustainability, and fiscal policy space in emerging and developing (EDE) countries. We do so by applying Pasinetti’s “geometry of debt sustainability” to EDE countries and analysing how it is shaped by exposure to global financial cycles. Through the lenses of Pasinetti’s theoretical framework, we study whether global finance opens “windows of opportunities” or creates more constraints for EDE countries in offering fiscal support for structural changes, including green structural transformations. This analysis is crucial for tackling the pressing issue of the climate crisis. We suggest EDE countries may face a “gridlock”. Global finance and pressures to keep external debt sustainable make them struggle to maintain vital public investment and enact counter-cyclical fiscal actions. Lack of fiscal space in turn exacerbates technological backwardness, which feeds back in the form of more binding external constraints and tighter “surveillance” by international creditors. We support our theoretical analysis with an econometric study over a sample of 55 countries from 1980-2018. Capital controls and external macroprudential policy emerge as fundamental policies enabling EDE countries to adeptly manoeuvre through debt challenges without falling into the pitfalls of stagnation and enduring technological underdevelopment.
    Keywords: Financial globalisation; fiscal space; structural change
    Date: 2023–12–15
  20. By: Takanori Adachi
    Abstract: The experience of unknown events such as financial crises and infectious disease crises, which are black swans that appear suddenly, has revealed the limitations of measuring risk under a fixed probability measure. In order to solve this problem, the importance of so-called ambiguity, which allows the probability measure itself to change, has long been recognized in the financial world. On the other hand, there have been many studies on subjective probability measures in the field of economics, including Savage's work. But even in those cases, the studies are based on the two levels of uncertainty: risk when a conventional probability measure (probability distribution) is known, and ambiguity due to the fact that the subjective probability measure (prior) can be taken arbitrarily in a certain space. In this study, we express n-layer uncertainty, which we call hierarchical uncertainty by introducing a new concept called uncertainty spaces which is an extended concept of probability spaces. We use uncertainty spaces for providing examples that illustrate Ellsberg's paradox. Next, we construct an endofunctor S of Mble, the category formed by measurable spaces and measurable functions between them, in order to embed a given set of uncertainty spaces into it. The endofunctor S maps a measurable space to a set of capacities defined on the space, where a capacity is a non-additive probability measure introduced by Choquet. After developing n-layer uncertainty analysis through uncertainty spaces, we construct the universal uncertainty space as a limit of the sequence of measurable spaces representing multi-layer uncertainty. This universal uncertainty space can serve as a basis for multi-layer uncertainty theory because it has as its projections the uncertainty spaces of all levels.
    Date: 2023–11
    Abstract: This is an update of a 22-year old study that attempted to quantify complexity (in arbitrary units) for the entire Universe in terms of 28 evolutionary milestones – breaks in historical perspective – and concluded that complexity will soon begin decreasing. AI is considered here as the latest such milestone. At the same time the data have been improved and the focus is now sharpened by studying only the recent 14 milestones, those relating to humans. The old conclusion is corroborated here with AI positioned at the beginning of the downward trend of the complexity cycle. The contribution of AI to complexity is expected to be somewhat smaller than that of the Internet. The next evolutionary milestone of comparable importance is expected around 2052 and should add less complexity than AI but more than nuclear energy/DNA/transistor.
    Date: 2023–11–21
  22. By: Daniel Polakow; Tim Gebbie; Emlyn Flint
    Abstract: The clarion call for causal reduction in the study of capital markets is intensifying. However, in self-referencing and open systems such as capital markets, the idea of unidirectional causation (if applicable) may be limiting at best, and unstable or fallacious at worst. In this research, we critically assess the use of scientific deduction and causal inference within the study of empirical finance and econometrics. We then demonstrate the idea of competing causal chains using a toy model adapted from ecological predator/prey relationships. From this, we develop the alternative view that the study of empirical finance, and the risks contained therein, may be better appreciated once we admit that our current arsenal of quantitative finance tools may be limited to ex post causal inference under popular assumptions. Where these assumptions are challenged, for example in a recognizable reflexive context, the prescription of unidirectional causation proves deeply problematic.
    Date: 2023–11
  23. By: Eric Schniter (Chapman University)
    Abstract: "Experimental research in the realm of human-robot interactions has focused on the behavioral and psychological influences affecting human interaction and cooperation with robots. A robot is loosely defined as a device designed to perform agentic tasks autonomously or under remote control, often replicating or assisting human actions. Robots can vary widely in form, ranging from simple assembly line machines performing repetitive actions to advanced systems with no moving parts but with artificial intelligence (AI) capable of learning, problem-solving, communicating, and adapting to diverse environments and human interactions. Applications of experimental human-robot interaction research include the design, development, and implementation of robotic technologies that better align with human preferences, behaviors, and societal needs. As such, a central goal of experimental research on human-robot interactions is to better understand how trust is developed and maintained. A number of studies suggest that humans trust and act toward robots as they do towards humans, applying social norms and inferring agentic intent (Rai and Diermeier, 2015). While many robots are harmless and even helpful, some robots may reduce their human partner’s wages, security, or welfare and should not be trusted (Taddeo, McCutcheon and Floridi, 2019; Acemoglu and Restrepo, 2020; Alekseev, 2020). For example, more than half of all internet traffic is generated by bots, the majority of which are 'bad bots' (Imperva, 2016). Despite the hazards, robotic technologies are already transforming our everyday lives and finding their way into important domains such as healthcare, transportation, manufacturing, customer service, education, and disaster relief (Meyerson et al., 2023)."
    Keywords: Trust, Robots, AI, Experiments, Evolution
    JEL: B52 C72 C90 D63 D64 L5
    Date: 2023
  24. By: Wendschlag, Mikael (Department of Economic History, Uppsala University)
    Abstract: In early April 1929, eight Swedish savings banks were found insolvent and closed due to economic crimes committed by some of their founders. After the crash, the Swedish parliament entered a debate about whether the state should cover some, all or none of the losses of the failed banks’ 88 000 depositors. The debate, mainly between the right party and the social democrats, was characterized by competing narratives about the causes of the crash, whether the state should intervene or not, whether there existed an implicit deposit insurance or not, who should be covered among the depositors, by how much, and how an intervention should be funded and administered. The debate, and the policy decision, is unique in Swedish banking history and illustrate the importance of narratives to understand political responses to bank crashes and crises. The debate ended in mid-May with a decision to partially cover the depositors’ losses.
    Keywords: bank crashes; competing narratives; deposit insurance; memories
    JEL: B52 G01 G28 H12 N24
    Date: 2023–12–08

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