|
on Heterodox Microeconomics |
| By: | Hartmann, Dominik |
| Abstract: | This paper argues for the necessity and potential of introducing Schumpeter's understanding of economic development as structural change into Amartya Sen's people-oriented development as freedom approach. Sen and other authors on social choice, human development and inequality have effectively promoted - through the United Nations Development Programme - that the expansion of human agency, well-being and capabilities are the means and ends of development (Sen, 1999). However, this approach has lead to a neglect of structural and technological aspects of economic systems such as social network dynamics, technological progress and the structural changes in the variety and balance of economic activities. Innovation driven socioeconomic change has decisive influences on the capabilities of the actors to be active agents in the development processes. For instance, the variety of economic sectors in a country and the access to information and finance networks determine occupational choices and learning opportunities. Economic diversification and social network dynamics follow evolutionary paths that can contribute to human development, but also intrinsically drive success-breeds-success mechanisms and inequality reproduction. Therefore, an agent oriented evolutionary theory of inequality and qualitative change has to take these structural features of economic development into account. -- |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fziddp:482012&r=hme |
| By: | Stan Metcalfe |
| Abstract: | The centennial of the publication of Schumpeter's Theory of Economic Development is an occasion to look back in appraisal and an opportunity to look forward in anticipation to consider anew the challenges that remain unfulfilled for Schumpeterians. Along with Marx and Marshall, Schumpeter's great achievement was to formulate an evolutionary, open system perspective on modern capitalism, to explain why it could never be at rest and to link its emergent properties to the capacity to change from within. In terms of appraisal, I shall focus on three aspects of Schumpeter's scheme: the link between knowledge, enterprise and the meaning to be attributed to a knowledge economy, the nature of the competitive process in the presence of innovation, and the transient, out of equilibrium nature of all economic arrangements. In looking forward, I shall consider what is missing from evolutionary economic dynamics, pointing to the role of factor markets in the competitive process, the significance of differences in firm's investment strategies and the fine grained nature of competition in markets where differences in the qualities of goods and services matter, and, lastly, on the evolutionary dimensions of international competition. Two lessons are particularly pertinent to advancing the Schumpeterian enterprise. First, that the familiar one-dimensional models of economic evolution are useful but incomplete. Secondly, that, while much evolutionary thinking has naturally focused on the connection between the micro and the meso, we need also to consider the connection between the meso and the macro and in so doing connect to rich literatures in the field of economic growth and development. |
| Date: | 2012–06–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esi:evopap:2012-13&r=hme |
| By: | Alessandro Spelta (Department of Economics and Business, University of Pavia); Tanya Araújo (ISEG - Technical University of Lisbon (TULisbon) and Research Unit on Complexity in Economics (UECE)) |
| Abstract: | We study the international interbank market through a geometrical and a topological analysis of empirical data. The geometrical analysis of the time series of cross-country liabilities shows that the systematic information of the interbank international market is contained in a space of small dimension, from which a topological characterization could be conveniently carried out. Weighted and complete networks of financial linkages across countries are developed, for which continuous clustering, degree centrality and closeness centrality are computed. The behavior of these topological coefficients reveals an important modification acting in the financial linkages in the period 1997-2011. Here we show that, besides the generalized clustering increase, there is a persistent increment in the degree of connectivity and in the closeness centrality of some countries. These countries seem to correspond to critical locations where tax policies might provide opportunities to shift debts. Such critical locations highlight the role that specific countries play in the network structure and helps to situates the turbulent period that has been characterizing the global financial system since the Summer 2007 as the counterpart of a larger structural change going on for a more than one decade. |
| Keywords: | Cross-border exposures, interbank networks, financial linkages, debt shifting |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pav:wpaper:181&r=hme |
| By: | Esteban Pérez Caldentey and Matias Vernengo |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy; Economic History; Heterodox Economics JEL Classification: B31, B50, E58, N10 The Great Depression led to a need to rethink the principles of central banking, as much as it had led to the rethinking of economics in general, with the Keynesian Revolution at the forefront of the theoretical changes. This paper suggests that the role of the monetary authority as a fiscal agent of government and the abandonment of the view of the economy as self-regulated were the central changes in central banking in the center. In addition, in the periphery central banks changed to try to insulate the worst effects of balance of payments crises and the use of capital controls became more common. Marriner S. Eccles, in the United States, and Raúl Prebisch, in Argentina, are paradigmatic examples of those new tendencies of central banking in the 1930s. |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uta:papers:2012_04&r=hme |
| By: | Alessandro Spelta (Department of Economics and Business, University of Pavia); Tanya Araújo (ISEG - Technical University of Lisbon (TULisbon) and Research Unit on Complexity in Economics (UECE)) |
| Abstract: | The recent financial crisis has stressed the need to understand financial systems as networks of interdependent countries, where crossborder financial linkages play the fundamental role. It has also been emphasized that the relevance of these networks relies on the representation of changes follow on the occurrence of stress events. Here, from series of interbank liabilities and claims over different time periods, we have developed networks of positions (net claims) between countries. Besides the Minimal Spanning Tree analysis of the time-constrained networks, a coefficient of residuality is defined to capture the structural evolution of the network of cross-border financial linkages. Because some structural changes seem to be related to the role that countries play in the financial context, networks of debtor and creditor countries are also developed. Empirical results allows to relate the network structure that emerges in the last years to the globally turbulent period that has characterized financial systems since the latest nineties. The residuality coefficient highlights an important modification acting in the financial linkages across countries in the period 1997-2011, and situates the recent financial crises as replica of a larger structural change going on since 1997. |
| Keywords: | Cross-border exposures, interbank networks, financial linkages, minimal spanning tree, financial crises |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pav:wpaper:180&r=hme |
| By: | Luca Fiorito |
| Abstract: | Albeit concerned with the biological element in social evolution, Albert B. Wolfe was among the very few economists of the progressive era who openly expressed his concerns about certain implications of eugenic rhetoric for the social science. Specifically, Wolfe questioned the strong hereditary boundaries that more extreme eugenicists suggested about human beings. As I will attempt to show in paper, a careful examination of Wolfe’s writings reveals that his reaction was rooted in the belief that many of the social problems which eugenicists attributed to hereditary limitations, were actually imputable to the influence that the social, economic, and physical environment exercised on the individuals. |
| Keywords: | Eugenics; Institutionalism; Social Evolution; Progressivism; Wolfe, Albert Benedict |
| JEL: | B1 B15 |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usi:wpaper:644&r=hme |
| By: | Paredes-Frigolett, Harold; Pyka, Andreas |
| Abstract: | Although the area of innovation economics dates back to the early twentieth century with the seminal contributions of Schumpeter (1911), it is only recently that governments have understood the role of a comprehensive approach towards public sector economics that puts innovation systems in the eye of public policy decision makers. Although well researched in academia in recent years, the role that innovation networks play in driving successful processes of innovation and entrepreneurship has been less understood by policy makers. Indeed, so far public policy makers have been concerned with the macro level of public policy in a way that has been rather disconnected from the meso level of innovation networks. Not surprisingly, overall strategies for innovation network formation have not been on the radar screen of public policy. The academic community, on the other hand, has been devoting more attention to the study of innovation networks in an attempt to understand the role they play as a catalyst of innovation and entrepreneurship. By and large in the research community, the process of innovation network formation has been left rather unattended. Indeed, the question of how these networks are formed and what strategies can be developed to ignite processes of innovation network formation has been largely absent from the academic debate. In this article, we make a contribution in this area and present distal embedding as one of three generic innovation network formation strategies. We also show why distal embedding'' is particularly well suited for emerging regions of innovation and entrepreneurship. Our contributions lie at the macro-meso interface and can shed light on public policy at the macro level aiming to have a direct impact at the meso level of innovation network formation. -- |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship,innovation networks,innovation network strategy formation |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fziddp:492012&r=hme |
| By: | Andres, Christian; Fernau, Erik; Theissen, Erik |
| Abstract: | In the German two-tiered system of corporate governance, it is common practice for chief executive officers (CEOs) to become the chairman of the supervisory board of the same company upon retirement. As members of the supervisory board, they are involved in setting the pay for their successors as well as for their former colleagues. We analyze a panel covering 150 listed firms and the period 1998-2007. We show that firms in which a former CEO serves as the chairman of the board of directors pay their executives significantly more. We find no difference in the compensation for the members of the supervisory board. Thus, former CEOs apparently exert their influence to increase the pay of their former colleagues and their successor, but not their own pay. -- |
| Keywords: | executive compensation,board structure,two-tiered board |
| JEL: | G30 G38 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1202&r=hme |
| By: | Erlend Berg; Sambit Bhattacharyya; Rajasekhar Durgam; Manjula Ramachandra |
| Abstract: | It has long been hypothesised that public works programmes, in addition to the welfare effect on those directly employed, can influence equilibrium wage rates. In this paper we test the impact of the Indian government’s major public works programme, the National Rural Employment Guarantee (NREG), on agricultural wages. The rollout of NREG in three phases is used to identify difference-in-difference estimates of the programme effect. Using monthly wage data from the period 2000-2011 for a panel of 249 districts across 19 Indian states, we find that on average NREG boosts the real daily agricultural wage rates by 5.3 per cent. It takes 6 to 11 months for an NREG intensity shock to feed into higher wages. The wage effect appears to be gender neutral and biased towards unskilled labour. It is positive across different implementation stages and months. It remains significant even after controlling for rainfall; district and time fixed effects; and phase-wise linear, quadratic, and cubic time trends. The validity of our identification strategy is confirmed by placebo tests. We argue that since most of the world’s poor live in rural areas, and the poorest of the poor are agricultural wage labourers, rural public works constitute a potentially important anti-poverty policy tool. |
| Keywords: | Public works; Workfare; NREG; Agricultural wages |
| JEL: | O1 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2012-05&r=hme |
| By: | Fousseini TRAORE; Félix BADOLO |
| Abstract: | Between January 2006 and April 2008, the prices of most of the agricultural products considerably rose in international markets. Empirical studies show that this spike in world food prices has increased the number of poor households in developing countries, but the magnitude is not the same in all countries. This paper assesses the impact of rising rice price on poverty and income inequality in Burkina Faso. We use a methodology based on the concept of compensating variation combined with the net benefit ratio (NBR) developed by Deaton (1989) and living standard survey (QUIBB, 2003). The results show that higher rice prices have a negative impact on income and poverty in the regions with a large proportion of households who are net buyers of rice. The poverty rate increases by 2.2 to 2.9 percentage points depending on the assumptions. The increase in poverty increase is higher in urban areas than in rural areas. Rising rice prices also increase income inequality. Income inequality particularly increases in urban areas and in relatively rich regions, but it decreases in poor regions with an important proportion of rice producers. |
| Keywords: | Measuring and analysis of poverty, farm household, Price |
| JEL: | Q11 Q12 I32 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdi:wpaper:1369&r=hme |
| By: | Sandrine Kablan (ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l'Utilisation des Données Individuelles Temporelles en Economie - Université Paris XII - Paris Est Créteil Val-de-Marne : EA437 - Université Paris Est Marne-la-Vallée) |
| Abstract: | Notre étude se propose de mesurer l'efficacité des institutions de microfinance (IMFs) en UEMOA, en utilisant la méthode DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis). C'est la première étude qui considère à la fois la fonction d'intermédiaire et d'outreach des IMFs. Nous trouvons une efficacité moyenne très faible de 50% en rendement d'échelle constant et de 63% en rendement d'échelle croissant. La baisse de l'efficacité sur la décennie 2000-2010, pour l'ensemble de la zone, s'explique par les difficultés rencontrées par le secteur de la microfinance qui ont conduit à la fermeture de nombreuses institutions, ou à une détérioration des indicateurs d'outreach dans les pays tels que la Côte d'Ivoire, le Sénégal et le Bénin. La bonne gestion financière et de portefeuille, les subventions ont un impact positif sur l'efficacité tandis que la taille et la formation ont un impact négatif. |
| Keywords: | efficacité, microfinance, outreach, programmes de réformes, soutenabilité, UEMOA. |
| Date: | 2012–04–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00710206&r=hme |
| By: | Mensah, Edouard R.; Karantininis, Kostas; Adegbidi, Anselme; Okello, Julius Juma |
| Abstract: | Forming and using cooperatives as marketing channel is usually advised to African smallholder farmers for overcoming the constraint of market access. However, limited evidence of cooperative behavior in marketing has been observed. In this paper, we estimate a two-stage model of commitment to cooperatives by cashew nut farmers in Benin, West Africa. In the first stage, we use data on 109 non-members and 168 members and estimate a binary Logit model of farmer’s discrete choice with respect to committing to membership. In the second stage, we use the members’ data to estimate a Tobit model of the proportion of produce delivered to the cooperative, after controlling for the endogeneity of the proportion of presales. Empirical results reveal that the commitment to membership depends on the assessment of prices offered by the marketing channels, the farmer’s preferences for the specific attributes of the channels, the total farm size, and some psycho-sociological factors; the commitment to business depends on prices and transaction costs in the channels. Our findings call cooperatives for improving commitment by considering the subjective and economic reasoning of the farmers, and setting formal contracts between members and their organization. |
| Keywords: | Benin, contracts, cooperatives, market access, prices, transaction costs, Agribusiness, Industrial Organization, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Marketing, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae12:125946&r=hme |
| By: | Hutchens, Robert M. (Cornell University) |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the problem of measuring segregation when groups form a hierarchy whereby some groups have greater economic status than others. While existing measures of segregation address the case where people are unequally distributed across groups with the same economic status, concern often focuses on groups with different status, e.g., occupational segregation where women have limited access to high wage occupations. This paper first defines a class of segregation indexes that encompasses both the "same economic status" and "different economic status" case. It then proposes two methods for incorporating economic status into empirical work. One is to rank groups from highest to lowest economic status and apply the dominance criteria in Theorem 2. The other is to invoke a cardinal measure of group economic status and then compute a numerical index. Finally, a numerical index of segregation is introduced, and both methods are used to analyze U.S. occupational segregation by gender and ethnicity. |
| Keywords: | inequality, segregation, occupational segregation, inequality index, Lorenz dominance |
| JEL: | C43 C81 D63 J15 |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6667&r=hme |
| By: | John Bryant (Vocat International) |
| Abstract: | Chapter from a book entitled Thermoeconomics, A Thermodynamic Approach to Economics (Third Edition), which deals with the relationships between the disciplines of thermodynamics and economics. Chapter 1 covers historical research on the disciplines, the structural comparisons between of the ideal gas equation and the quantity theory. Chapter 2 concerns a general stock model that can be adapted to represent those of money, labour and economic output. Chapter 3 deals with economic representations of the first and second laws of thermodynamics, work done, internal value and entropic value, reversibility, entropy, particular economic processes and utility. Chapter 4 concerns a thermodynamic representation of production processes, reaction kinetics entropy and maximisation and the cycle. Chapter 5 constructs a thermodynamic money system, using historical data of the UK and USA economies to provide empirical analysis. Particular aspects covered include elastic relationships, entropy, and interest rates. Chapter 6 describes aspect of labour and unemployment. Chapter 7 describes the principles of investment and economic entropy, including DCF, annuities and bonds. Chapter 8 sets out analyses of world energy and climate change to illustrate empirically some of the principles covered by the book.Chapter 9 is a discussion of thermoeconomics and sustainability. |
| Keywords: | Thermodynamics, economics, Le Chatelier, entropy, utility, money, equilibrium, value, energy, interest, elasticity, employment, climate change |
| JEL: | A1 C02 C68 D5 E O |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:voc:wpaper:tech12012&r=hme |
| By: | John Bryant (Vocat International) |
| Abstract: | Chapter from a book entitled Thermoeconomics, A Thermodynamic Approach to Economics (Third Edition), which deals with the relationships between the disciplines of thermodynamics and economics. Chapter 1 covers historical research on the disciplines, the structural comparisons between of the ideal gas equation and the quantity theory. Chapter 2 concerns a general stock model that can be adapted to represent those of money, labour and economic output. Chapter 3 deals with economic representations of the first and second laws of thermodynamics, work done, internal value and entropic value, reversibility, entropy, particular economic processes and utility. Chapter 4 concerns a thermodynamic representation of production processes, reaction kinetics entropy and maximisation and the cycle. Chapter 5 constructs a thermodynamic money system, using historical data of the UK and USA economies to provide empirical analysis. Particular aspects covered include elastic relationships, entropy, and interest rates. Chapter 6 describes aspect of labour and unemployment. Chapter 7 describes the principles of investment and economic entropy, including DCF, annuities and bonds. Chapter 8 sets out analyses of world energy and climate change to illustrate empirically some of the principles covered by the book.Chapter 9 is a discussion of thermoeconomics and sustainability. |
| Keywords: | Thermodynamics, economics, Le Chatelier, entropy, utility, money, equilibrium, value, energy, interest, elasticity, employment, climate change |
| JEL: | A1 C02 C68 D5 E O |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:voc:wpaper:tech72012&r=hme |
| By: | John Bryant (Vocat International) |
| Abstract: | Chapter from a book entitled Thermoeconomics, A Thermodynamic Approach to Economics (Third Edition), which deals with the relationships between the disciplines of thermodynamics and economics. Chapter 1 covers historical research on the disciplines, the structural comparisons between of the ideal gas equation and the quantity theory. Chapter 2 concerns a general stock model that can be adapted to represent those of money, labour and economic output. Chapter 3 deals with economic representations of the first and second laws of thermodynamics, work done, internal value and entropic value, reversibility, entropy, particular economic processes and utility. Chapter 4 concerns a thermodynamic representation of production processes, reaction kinetics entropy and maximisation and the cycle. Chapter 5 constructs a thermodynamic money system, using historical data of the UK and USA economies to provide empirical analysis. Particular aspects covered include elastic relationships, entropy, and interest rates. Chapter 6 describes aspect of labour and unemployment. Chapter 7 describes the principles of investment and economic entropy, including DCF, annuities and bonds. Chapter 8 sets out analyses of world energy and climate change to illustrate empirically some of the principles covered by the book.Chapter 9 is a discussion of thermoeconomics and sustainability. |
| Keywords: | Thermodynamics, economics, Le Chatelier, entropy, utility, money, equilibrium, value, energy, interest, elasticity, employment, climate change |
| JEL: | A1 C02 C68 D5 E O |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:voc:wpaper:tech92012&r=hme |
| By: | Kowalewski, Julia |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the ongoing debate about deriving the value of the exponent when using Flegg's location quotient (FLQ) formula which helps to simulate regional input-output tables. Using a survey-based regional input-output table, the empirical analysis provides evidence of an optimal for the German Federal of State Baden-Wuerttemberg. Furthermore, an extended formula (SFLQ) is introduced allowing for variation in by industry. Finally, this paper demonstrates the advantage of the SFLQ and finds evidence for a close relationship between the spatial concentration of an industry at the national level and its propensity to import goods and services from other regions. -- |
| Keywords: | regional input-output table,non-survey method,empirical analysis |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hwwirp:126&r=hme |
| By: | Arndt, Channing; Benfica, Rui M.S.; Thurlow, James |
| Abstract: | We use a gendered dynamic CGE model to assess the implications of biofuels expansion in a low-income, land-abundant setting. Mozambique is chosen as a representative case. We compare scenarios with different gender employment intensities in producing jatropha feedstock for biodiesel. Under all scenarios, biofuels investments accelerate GDP growth and reduce poverty. However, a stronger trade-off between biofuels and food availability emerges when female labor is used intensively, as women are drawn away from food production. A skills-shortage amongst female workers also limits poverty reduction. Policy simulations indicate that only modest improvements in women’s education and food crop yields are needed to address food security concerns and ensure broader-based benefits from biofuels investments. |
| Keywords: | Biofuels, gender, growth, poverty, land abundance, Africa, Food Security and Poverty, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae12:125395&r=hme |
| By: | Mattos, Fabio |
| Abstract: | The disposition effect is one of the most common types of behavior documented in inancial markets, and reflects the notion that investors tend to hold losing positions too long and close winning positions too fast. This idea can also be applied to grain marketing. The disposition effect would be related to whether producers sell their grain more readily when prices are “high” and wait longer when prices are “low”. This question is relevant because this type of behavior can affect marketing performance. If grain is sold too early, producers can miss opportunities to sell at higher price later. If producers hold their grain too long, price can go down and they will end up selling at a lower prices. Examination of pricing strategies of 15,564 wheat producers between 2003/04 and 2008/09 shows evidence of disposition effect in their marketing decisions. They seem to be eager to sell when the price offered by marketing contracts is above their reference price, and wait longer to sell when the price offered by marketing contracts is below their reference price. |
| Keywords: | grain marketing, disposition effect, wheat, Financial Economics, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Marketing, D0, D8, Q13, |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:spaawp:125279&r=hme |
| By: | Tisdell, Clement A. |
| Abstract: | The most widely accepted view of sustainable economic development is that it is economic development ensuring that each succeeding generation is no less well off than its predecessor. This mainstream approach, however, has several limitations. It can, for example, result in a development path being chosen in which at least some generations could be better off with none being worse off, that is a Paretian inefficient development path. The above mentioned criterion for sustainable development has been justified on the basis of Rawls’ principle of justice, even though the Paretian inefficient case mentioned is inconsistent with this principle. Nonetheless, even if Rawls’ principle is correctly applied to economic development choices, it is doubtful whether it would result in the most desirable social outcome. An alternative criterion is suggested. Apart from this, Rawls’ principle is anthropocentric and influenced by implicit cosmic assumptions. There are also several other philosophical and practical issues that need to be resolved in planning for sustainable development. These include how many future generations should be taken into account in undertaking planning for sustainable development? Should the welfare of each count equally or should less weight be put on the welfare of more distant generations than less distant ones? Is the latter necessary because of greater uncertainty about more distant events or because current generations only feel empathy for their children and grandchildren? Issues involving these matters have, for example, been raised by Herman Daly and by David Pearce. A related matter is what role should discount rates play in planning for sustainable development. For example, is the use of a low or zero social discount rate appropriate in sustainable development planning? Even the application of zero discount rates to human welfare may fail to result in the choice of an optimal development path. Dealing with the presence of uncertainty about future events (which tends to increase for predictions further into the future) remains a major challenge for sustainable development planning. How should this uncertainty be allowed for? Furthermore, it is necessary to consider the implications of bounded rationality for the processes involved in sustainable development planning, and this aspect is also discussed. |
| Keywords: | coefficient of concern for future generation, discounting, intergenerational equity, Rawls’ principle of justice, sustainable development, time horizons, Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Security and Poverty, |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uqseee:125210&r=hme |
| By: | William R. White |
| Abstract: | Economic downturns which have their roots in preceding credit excesses and debt overhang have tended historically to be long lasting, whether the financial sector remained healthy or not. There are no good reasons to believe the current global crisis will be any different. Moreover, it is argued in this paper that the policy responses to the crisis to date, both macroeconomic and structural, will not succeed in restoring sustainable growth. Monetary and fiscal stimulus might raise aggregate demand in the short run, but they contribute to higher debt levels which are already working increasingly in the opposite direction. Structural policies intended to maintain pre crisis production patterns, both in the financial and industrial sectors, ignore the unsustainability of those structures in the first place. Alternative policies are needed to meet the G 20’s goal of “strong, sustainable and balanced growth”. They include more international cooperation between creditor and debtor countries (on both exchange rates and production structures), more recourse to explicit debt restructuring (for both households and sovereigns), and structural polices to raise potential growth and make debts more sustainable. Unfortunately, there remain formidable practical and political obstacles to pursuing such policies. Future debt crises of the current magnitude could be avoided by using monetary, macro prudential and fiscal policies more symmetrically over the business cycle. Relative to past behaviour, this would imply more vigorous resistance to credit financed upswings, and a greater willingness to accept the cleansing effect of minor downswings. Policies to ensure financial stability are important but secondary.<P>Les crises de crédit et les insuffisances des interventions publiques traditionnelles<BR>D'un point de vue historique, les récessions économiques qui trouvent leur origine dans des excès en matière de crédit et des phénomènes de surendettement tendent à s'inscrire dans la durée, que le secteur financier reste sain ou non. Il n'existe aucune bonne raison de penser que la crise mondiale actuelle diffère en quoi que ce soit de ce schéma. En outre, nous faisons valoir dans ce document que les mesures prises à ce jour par les pouvoirs publics face à la crise, tant sur le plan macroéconomique que structurel, ne permettront pas de revenir à une croissance durable. Les mesures de relance monétaire et budgétaire peuvent certes renforcer la demande globale à court terme, mais elles contribuent à alourdir une dette qui exerce déjà un effet inverse de plus en plus fort. Quant aux mesures structurelles destinées à préserver les structures de production d'avant la crise, tant dans le secteur financier que dans l'industrie, elles ne tiennent pas compte du fait que ces structures n'étaient pas viables à l'origine. D'autres mesures s'imposent pour atteindre l'objectif de « croissance forte, durable et équilibrée » défini par le Groupe des Vingt (G20). Elles peuvent notamment prendre la forme d'une coopération internationale accrue entre pays débiteurs et créanciers (tant en matière de taux de change que de structures de production), d'un recours plus poussé à des formes explicites de restructuration de la dette (tant pour les ménages que pour les emprunteurs souverains), ainsi que de mesures structurelles destinées à rehausser la croissance potentielle et à renforcer la viabilité des dettes. Malheureusement, la mise en oeuvre de telles mesures reste entravée par des obstacles pratiques et politiques considérables. Nous pourrions éviter de futures crises de la dette d'une ampleur similaire à celle que nous connaissons aujourd'hui en utilisant les politiques monétaire, macro prudentielle et budgétaire de manière plus symétrique sur la durée du cycle économique. Par rapport aux comportements antérieurs, cela impliquerait une résistance plus vigoureuse aux phases d'expansion financées par le crédit, et une plus grande disposition à accepter l'effet d'assainissement des phases de contraction légère de l'activité. Les mesures destinées à garantir la stabilité financière sont certes importantes, mais secondaires. |
| Keywords: | fiscal policy, monetary policy, structural reforms, credit, financial crises, international policy coordination, debt forgiveness, réforme structurelle, politique fiscale, politique monétaire, crédit, viabilité de la dette, politique de coopération internationale, récessions économiques |
| JEL: | B50 E58 E62 G01 H12 |
| Date: | 2012–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:971-en&r=hme |
| By: | Jacques Sapir (IRSES - Institutions et régulations des systèmes économiques ex-soviétiques - Fondation Maison des sciences de l'homme, CEMI - Centre d'étude des modes d'industrialisation - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS)) |
| Abstract: | La notion de ciblage d'inflation (inflation targeting) a provoqué de nombreuses discussions ces vingt dernières années. Il en ressort une remise en cause de la thèse classique sur la nature purement monétaire de l'inflation et, par la même occasion du principe que l'inflation la plus basse est toujours la meilleure. La notion même d'output gap montre que le niveau de l'inflation a bien une importance pour la croissance et que, dans certains cas, inflation et croissance sont en réalité corrélées positivement. Ceci est lié aux " dépendance stratégique " entre les secteurs de l'économie, mais aussi à l'idée que les comportements peuvent être dépendants du contexte. Après avoir discuté les hypothèses sur les rigidités structurelles et nominales, et comparé quelques résultats, nous esquissons un modèle bi-sectoriel, empruntant certaines des idées de Mankyw et Reis, mais en les développant dans un cadre bien plus hétérodoxe et post-Keynésien. |
| Keywords: | inflation; croissance; output-gap; modèle bi-sectoriel; investissement; zone Euro; politique monétaire |
| Date: | 2012–06–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00712645&r=hme |