|
on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | Wilson, Kate |
| Abstract: | The cause of England’s agricultural transformation and subsequent escape from Malthusian constraints remains a subject of significant debate in economic and agricultural historiography. This study challenges conventional narratives by examining the Corbet estates in old-enclosed Shropshire between 1740 and 1840 to assess whether shifts associated with ‘agricultural revolution’, such as farm engrossment and rising rents, emerged in the absence of parliamentary enclosure. By considering an area where traditional views on parliamentary enclosure are less applicable, this research provides a nuanced understanding of agricultural shifts in a regional context. Using the Corbet family rentals and estate surveys, this study tracks changes in land distribution, tenure security, and rents over the period. This is then combined with a thorough analysis of parish records and contemporary accounts to consider the motivations behind the observed shifts. Such a multifaceted approach aims to determine whether these shifts can be attributed to productivity growth, as traditional narratives suggest, or whether deliberate estate management decisions played a more significant role. The results indicate that an agricultural transformation was occurring on the Corbet estates, but that there is little evidence to suggest a link to productivity growth. Therefore, it is likely that the estate management philosophy of the Corbet family, particularly following their descent into debt after 1783, was a central driver of the observed shifts. Ultimately, this research provides insight into how rural transformation operated across diverse regional contexts in the Early Modern period, challenging traditional narratives that are centred around enclosure. |
| JEL: | Q10 Q15 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:129441 |
| By: | Xue, Melanie |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a structured approach for using genealogical records from FamilySearch to study Chinese historical demography. As a proof of concept, we focus on over 190, 000 digitized records from a single surname, drawn from many provinces and spanning multiple centuries. These lineage-based microdata include individual-level birth, death, and kinship information, which we clean, validate, and geocode using consistent rules and standardized place names. We begin by documenting descriptive patterns in population growth, sex ratios, and migration. Migration was overwhelmingly local, with longdistance moves rare and concentrated in a small number of lineages. Outmigration rose to a high point between 1750 and 1850 and then declined in later cohorts and generations. We then use the genealogical data to test specific hypotheses. Male-biased sex ratios—likely influenced by female infanticide—are strongly associated with higher rates of male childlessness. Migration rates fall sharply with patrilineal generational depth, offering micro-level evidence that clans became more sedentary over time. Together, these findings show how genealogical records can be used to reconstruct long-run demographic patterns and to assess social processes such as kinship, mobility, and reproductive exclusion. The approach is replicable and extensible to other surnames and regions as data coverage improves. |
| Keywords: | crowd-surfed genealogies; historical demography; China |
| JEL: | J11 J13 N10 N35 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:129939 |
| By: | Irigoin, Alejandra |
| Abstract: | By specifying the specie on which returns were to be repaid respondentia was a ubiquitous financial instrument to carry international trade in which silver was “essential” for its continuation. Where multiple currencies existed and silver was the preferred money, imported silver species performed as foreign currency. Thus, the import of foreign coins created issues for prices, profits and exchange rates. Eighteenth century Europeans alternatively used respondentia or bills depending on the monetary context, casting a shade of doubt on the inherent efficiency of a cashless means of payment. Until the 1820s, private bills of exchange did not circulate where cash had a premium. Europeans developed means to regulate the price of foreign coins and exchange rates. Elsewhere respondentia allowed to hedge against exchange risk and propitiated arbitrage profits, giving an advantage over bills. The article documents the global scope of the instrument; it explains the exchange nature of the contract and explores the issues that respondentia came to solve. It highlights the role of monies of account Europeans used in pricing foreign currencies in international trade. |
| Keywords: | private maritime trade finance; early modern global commerce; exchange risk; monies of account |
| JEL: | N20 F31 G23 G14 |
| Date: | 2025–04–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:128607 |
| By: | Leonardo Bursztyn (University of Chicago Department of Economics and NBER); Ewan Rawcliffe (Harvard University); Hans-Joachim Voth (University of Zurich Department of Economics and UBS Center for Economics in Society) |
| Abstract: | We study the ability of a firm to elicit repeated effort from workers by creating a “rat race†of hierarchical status-based incentives. We examine performance using data on over 5, 000 German air force pilots during World War II. Pilots’ effort is hard to monitor; motivation is key to success. Fighter pilot performance increases markedly as they approach eligibility for a medal before falling off upon receipt of the award. The same effort path repeats itself as the pilot nears the next higher prestige medal. Status-conscious pilots also exert more effort when new medals are introduced. We show that medals serve as substitutes for other forms of status. Medal cachet declines over time as lower-ability pilots receive them, making the introduction of new medals desirable. These results suggest that a tiered, expanding system of status-based incentives can repeatedly leverage worker status concerns to extract effort. |
| JEL: | D22 D91 M52 N44 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2026-18 |
| By: | Basco, Sergi; Roses, Joan R. |
| Abstract: | The economic impact of pandemics is commonly studied using theoretical models that assume constant returns to scale and no factor movements. This article argues that a new economic geography model with increasing returns to scale and capital mobility better explains the effects of pandemics in modern economies. Our model predicts that pandemics shape where investments are made, leading to long-term impacts on economic development. To test this, we examine the consequences of the Great Influenza Pandemic on credit allocation and structural transformation in Spain from 1915 to 1929. Our research shows that credit growth was lower in regions with high mortality. Quantitatively, a one standard deviation increase in flu-driven mortality decreases credit (per capita) by 13.6%. We also document that this flu-driven reallocation of credit resulted in an increase in relative urban GDP in low mortality rate regions. A one standard deviation increase in flu-driven credit raises relative urban GDP by 9.5%. |
| Keywords: | pandemics; capital mobility; economic geography; structural change |
| JEL: | E32 N10 N30 N90 O11 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:128853 |
| By: | Colvin, Christopher L.; Dorman, Andrew; Jordan, David; Needham, Duncan |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how applied history can contribute to policymaking when understood as a way of structuring judgement under uncertainty rather than as a source of policy lessons or predictions. It argues that economic history is particularly well suited to facilitating this role because it combines institutional analysis with disciplined comparison of plausible alternatives and close attention to temporal constraints. Distinguishing between micro-pedagogical and macro-institutional applications, the paper analyses two sites of practice: (1) a historically grounded policy simulation used to train early-career civil service economists delivered by the Centre for Economics, Policy and History, a research centre based in Belfast and Dublin; and (2) longer-term engagement between historians and policy advisers in Whitehall organised through History & Policy, an applied history forum. The paper concludes by clarifying the possibilities and limits of applied economic history as a contribution to reflective policy practice. |
| Keywords: | applied economic history, historical uncertainty, policy pedagogy, practical historicism |
| JEL: | A20 B40 N01 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:335908 |
| By: | Lasse Aaskoven (University of Southern Denmark); Christian Vedel (University of Southern Denmark) |
| Abstract: | A growing literature concerns the role of symbolic politics, including how political parties benefit electorally from politicizing the past, a strategy which should be more effective in localities with physical memories of the past. We test this argument by studying the effect of the local concentration of pre-Christian monuments on electoral support for the Danish Nazi Party -- a far-right party who relied heavily on the symbols of Denmark's pre-Christian past in its propaganda -- in Danish parliamentary elections 1935-1943. In contrast to the proposed theoretical argument, we find no evidence that Danish localities with a greater concentration of pre-Christian monuments saw greater electoral support for the Danish Nazi Party. These findings hint at the limits of symbolic politics for electoral support for the far-right and suggest that investigating the scope conditions for the political effects of physical memories of the past may be a fruitful avenue for future research. |
| Keywords: | Symbolic politics, Collective memory, Far-right voting |
| JEL: | D72 N44 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0295 |
| By: | Schneider, Eric B.; Davenport, Romola |
| Abstract: | This paper uses population smallpox mortality rates in eighteenth-century Sweden and the death toll from the 1707-9 smallpox epidemic in Iceland to estimate plausible ranges for the case fatality rate (CFR) of the deadly form of smallpox, Variola major, in both its endemic (Sweden) and epidemic (Iceland) form. We find that smallpox CFRs could be extremely high (40-53%) when smallpox was epidemic and attacked a population where both children and adults were susceptible as in Iceland. However, where smallpox was endemic and therefore a disease of childhood, as in Sweden, a better estimate of the CFR is 8-10%. This is far lower than the consensus CFR of 20% to 30%. Part of the differences between the CFRs studied here could be due to differences in the inherent virulence of smallpox in the two contexts. However, we argue that social factors are more likely to explain the differences. Where both adults and children were susceptible to smallpox, smallpox epidemics fundamentally disrupted household tasks such as fetching water and food preparation and prevented parents from nursing their sick children, dramatically increasing the CFR. Thus, when historians and epidemiologists give CFRs of smallpox, they should consider the population and context rather than relying on an implausible intrinsic CFR of 20% to 30%. |
| Keywords: | smallpox; epidemics; case fertility rate; historical demography |
| JEL: | N30 J10 |
| Date: | 2025–05–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:128854 |
| By: | Yueran Ma (University of Chicago – Booth School of Business); Mengdi Zhang (Northwestern University); Kaspar Zimmermann (Kiel Institute for the World Economy and University of Hamburg) |
| Abstract: | We collect new data to document the long-run evolution of the firm size distribution in ten marketbased economies in Asia, Europe, North America, and Oceania, where we can obtain comprehensive coverage of the population of firms. Around the world, we observe prevalent increases in the concentration of sales, net income, and equity capital over the past century. These trends hold in the aggregate and at the industry level. Meanwhile, employment concentration has been stable over the long run in most cases. The evidence shows that the rising dominance of large firms is a pervasive phenomenon, not limited to the recent decades or the United States, and that large firms often achieve greater scale without proportionally more workers. |
| JEL: | E01 L1 N1 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2026-13 |
| By: | Marion Tosolini; Yamina Tadjeddine; Caroline Vincensini |
| Abstract: | Si la littérature en histoire économique a étudié en profondeur le développement des marchés de dette souveraine et les mécanismes de réputation financière, peu a été dit sur la dette des institutions internationales et européennes. Cet article ambitionne de conceptualiser et d’étudier empiriquement la perception qu’ont les investisseurs des emprunteurs « quasi-souverains » comme l’Union Européenne et ses ancêtres. L’article a deux objectifs. Premièrement, il conceptualise le risque de crédit dans le cas des quasi-souverains. Puis il étudie le développement graduel de la réputation financière de la Communauté Européenne du Charbon et de l’Acier (CECA) de 1954 à 1980. À partir d’archives historiques et de données quantitatives, l’étude montre que la CECA, bien que nouvelle et inconnue en 1954, est progressivement devenue un emprunteur réputé sur les marchés financiers. Cela lui a permis d’emprunter à des conditions financières favorables voire meilleures que celles de certains États membres. Ce cas historique éclaire d’un nouveau jour les débats actuels sur la dette et la réputation financière de l’Union Européenne. |
| Keywords: | dette européenne, souveraineté, construction européenne, réputation financière, dette publique |
| JEL: | E02 F36 G23 H6 N14 N2 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2026-02 |
| By: | Milagros Onofri; Inés Berniell; Raquel Fernández; Azul Menduiña |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the sharp decline in fertility across Latin America using both period and cohort measures. Combining Vital Statistics, Census microdata, and UN population data, we decompose changes in fertility by age, education, and joint age–education groups. We show that the decline in period fertility between 2000 and 2022 is driven primarily by reductions in within-group birth rates rather than by changes in population composition, with the largest contributions coming from younger and less-educated women. Comparing the cohort born in the mid 1950s and the one born in the mid 1970s, we find that the decline in completed fertility reflects not only delayed childbearing but also substantial reductions in the average number of children per woman. This is driven primarily by lower fertility among mothers rather than by rising childlessness. Our findings provide new evidence on the nature of Latin America’s transition to below-replacement fertility and highlight several open questions for future research. |
| JEL: | J11 J13 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34749 |
| By: | Gyun Cheol Gu |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes neoclassical reactions to Gardiner Means's administered price thesis during 1980-2000. It shows that his original idea has been continuously denied by mainstream economists. At the same time, it has been transformed through a multiplicity of rationalization processes into one or another bastardized form. However, their attempts to deny and/or rationalize the thesis are unsuccessful as their sanitized versions of Means’s theory turn out to be self-contradictory in the neoclassical framework. |
| Keywords: | Gardiner Means, Price rigidity, Administered price |
| JEL: | B21 B50 D43 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2603 |
| By: | Learmouth, Tom |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to our understanding of how Japan became the only Asian country to achieve sustained catch-up industrialisation before WWII. It does so by analysing the absorption of useful foreign knowledge in a traditional Japanese textile town and its subsequent evolution into a modern rubber manufacturing cluster. The cluster analysed is Kurume in Fukuoka Prefecture which began the interwar period as a major producer of cotton tabi (split-toed footwear). The core argument is that Kurume firms Nihon Tabi and Tsuchiya Tabi built on their foundations as large sewing factories by ‘borrowing capacity’ from general trading companies. This enabled them to evolve into large-scale rubber-soled footwear manufacturers capable of absorbing high-level engineering knowledge necessary to compete with Dunlop and US tyremakers in Asian motor tyre markets. A rich body of new primary material ranging from the corporate archives of Mitsui Bussan and Mitsubishi Shōji to regional industrial surveys is analysed using a novel conceptual framework. This framework draws upon Klepper’s (2010) heritage theory which suggests that best-practice industry knowledge is diffused out of leading firms. Integrated into this approach is Abe & Nakamura’s (2010) suggestion that the ‘indigenous industrialization process’ in Japan identified by Tanimoto (2006) was not separate from, but interacted with, the diffusion of Western-style manufacturing. |
| JEL: | L62 L65 N15 N75 N85 N95 O14 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:130283 |
| By: | KANO, Kazuko; KANO, Takashi |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how currency conversion can disrupt relative prices by impairing the unit-ofaccount function of money. We examine Okinawa’s 1972 conversion from the U.S. dollar to the Japanese yen, following the collapse of a previously shared unit-of-account triggered by the Nixon shock. Using wholesale price data for perishable goods, we showthat relative prices exhibited sharp changes despite flexible prices. By contrast, Okinawa’s 1958 currency conversion used a single, clearly announced rate and left relative prices stable. The comparison highlights the importance of institutional clarity for a shared unit of account and stable relative prices. |
| Keywords: | Unit of Account, Monetary Singleness, Relative Price Distortion, Currency Conversion, Okinawa Reversion |
| JEL: | E42 E31 D40 N15 |
| Date: | 2026–01–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-155 |
| By: | de Bromhead, Alan; Lyons, Ronan C.; Ohler, Johann |
| Abstract: | Poor housing conditions, and the negative effects of Household Air Pollution (HAP) in particular, remain one of the most pressing global public health challenges. While the association between poor housing and health has a long history, evidence of a direct link is lacking. In this paper, we examine a rare example of a public housing intervention in rural areas, namely the large-scale provision of high-quality housing in Ireland in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. We exploit a novel dataset of deaths-by-disease and deaths-by-age-and-sex over the period 1871–1919, to test the impact of the intervention on mortality. Our difference-in difference estimates indicate that improved housing conditions reduced mortality by as much as 1 death per 1000. This effect is driven by reductions in deaths from respiratory diseases. We propose a likely mechanism that is consistent with the pattern of results we observe: a reduction in Household Air Pollution through improved housing quality and better ventilation. A cost-benefit analysis reveals that the scheme was a highly cost-effective intervention. |
| Keywords: | Ireland |
| JEL: | N33 N93 Q53 O18 J10 |
| Date: | 2025–10–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:129885 |
| By: | Precetti, Josephine |
| Abstract: | France’s railway expansion following the Law of 11 June 1842 significantly reshaped nationwide connectivity and economic opportunities. This dissertation investigates the causal impacts of railway access between 1846 and 1861 on city-level industrial development. Using a dataset combining industrial surveys with digitized railway records, it employs a robust Difference-in-Differences approach, leveraging the quasi-exogenous roll-out of the centrally planned ‘étoile de Legrand’ railway network. Empirical results show railway access increased industrial activity primarily extensively: railway-connected cities saw approximately a 20% rise in the number of factories and workers, especially in labour-intensive sectors like textile in Lille and ceramics in Limoges. Yet, intensive effects such as factory size, productivity, and wages remained statistically and economically negligible. Contrary to theoretical predictions from trade and New Economic Geography models, capital-intensive sectors, such as metallurgy in Lorraine, did not exhibit statistically significant responsiveness. These findings reframe the role of transport infrastructure from being a deterministic catalyst to being better understood as a conditional enabler. While railways expanded market potential, their short to medium term transformative impact critically depended on complementary institutional frameworks notably financial markets and property rights, technological readiness, and regional contexts. Acknowledging the historical data limitations, this study underscores that transport infrastructure alone is insufficient for structural economic upgrading without the appropriate institutional, technological, and human capital conditions in place at the right time. |
| JEL: | N73 R40 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:129951 |
| By: | Xiaodong Zhu |
| Abstract: | Contrary to popular belief, the rise of China over the past half century was not driven by industrial or mercantilist policies. The economy grew fastest when the government played a more passive role, allowing market forces and bottom-up initiatives from farmers, local officials, and private entrepreneurs to shape economic development. China’s vast size and extensive markets created strong incentives for entrepreneurial innovation. However, the government remained committed to preserving its political system and a dominant state sector, imposing clear limits on private sector and market development. Whenever private entrepreneurs sought to push these boundaries, the government responded forcefully. Over the last five decades, China’s economic trajectory has been shaped by the tension between these two forces. |
| Keywords: | China's Economic Growth, Market Forces vs State Intervention, Policy Cycles, Bottom-up Reforms, Top-down Industrial Policies, Private Sector Development, State-Owned Enterprises, Political Economy of Reform |
| JEL: | O25 O43 P30 |
| Date: | 2026–01–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-818 |
| By: | Pablo Álvarez-Aragón (Development Finance and Public Policies, University of Namur); Jean-Marie Baland (Development Finance and Public Policies, University of Namur); Catherine Guirkinger (Development Finance and Public Policies, University of Namur); Paola Villar (Centre d'Économie de la Sorbonne, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the long-term impact of Catholic missionary nuns on women’s human capital in the Democratic Republic of Congo. By using newly digitized historical data on Christian missions, recent demographic surveys, and administrative data on schools and healthcare facilities, we analyze the lasting effects of the missionaries' presence, focusing on gender-specific outcomes. While both Catholic and Protestant missions influenced educational attainment, the presence of Catholic nuns significantly enhanced these effects, especially for girls. Proximity to Catholic missions is also associated with better health outcomes. Beyond education and health, exposure to missions with nuns delays marriage, reduces polygamy, and increases women’s decision-making power within households. However, the negative effects on female labor force participation likely reflect the enduring influence of the “Christian household” model promoted during the colonial period. Overall, Catholic missionary nuns played a decisive role in shaping women’s outcomes, with effects that remain visible more than a century later. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nam:defipp:2601 |
| By: | Efraim Benmelech; Joao Monteiro |
| Abstract: | We provide the first global, long-run evidence on how war reshapes democratic institutions. Using data on all conflicts since 1948, we show that the onset of conflict causes a large and persistent decline in democracy: institutions weaken immediately, continue to erode for nearly a decade, and do not recover. Yet this deterioration is highly selective. It appears only in first-time conflicts, intrastate wars, highly fractionalized societies, and conflicts that governments win. The decline operates through political channels – media censorship, judicial purges, curtailed civil liberties, irregular leadership turnover, and constitutional suspensions - rather than through any functional requirement of war-making. Autocratization does not increase the probability of victory, and institutional instability reduces it. Taken together, the findings show that war does not require autocracy; it enables executives to expand their authority and implement institutional changes that would be difficult to enact in peacetime. |
| JEL: | D74 H56 P48 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34734 |
| By: | Costas Lapavitsas (Department of Economics, SOAS University of London. Russell Square, London WC1H 0XG, UK) |
| Abstract: | Contemporary imperialism is a hierarchical regime of global accumulation enforcing exploitation and subordination without colonial territories. It rests on the structural pairing of internationalised productive capital (multinational-enterprise-led production chains) with globalised financial capital, articulated through the dollar as world money. The article shows that the decisive hinge of domination lies in the monetary hierarchy itself, which became unmistakable after the Great Crisis of 2007–09 as the financialisation of capitalism shifted into a new phase – Financialisation Mark II. Balance-sheet discipline, hierarchical liquidity allocation by the Federal Reserve, payment system control, sanctions, and collateral exactions now function alongside territorial coercion as mechanisms of surplus transfer and crisis adjustment, with monetary instruments predominating at critical moments. Absent a rival world money, productive ascent by peripheral challengers cannot dislodge US hegemony prolonging a coercive interregnum and raising the risk of world war. |
| Keywords: | Contemporary imperialism, Financialisation Mark II, Dollar hegemony, Surplus transfer coercion |
| JEL: | E42 F02 F51 F65 P16 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:soa:wpaper:272 |
| By: | Schertz, Lyle P. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, Public Economics |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:neaecp:261960 |
| By: | Clark, Gregory; Cummins, Neil |
| Abstract: | What happens across generations to random wealth shocks? Do they endure and even magnify, or do they dissipate? By implication, how much of modern wealth is attributable to events before 1900? This paper uses random shocks to family size in England before 1880, that created wealth shocks for the children, to measure the persistence of random wealth shocks. Fertility for married couples in England before 1880 was not controlled but was a biological lottery. And for richer families, family size strongly influenced child wealth. This paper finds that such biology induced wealth shocks had no impact on descendent wealth by three generations later. Since wealth itself persisted strongly across more than five generations this implies that, in the long run, wealth mainly derives from sources other than wealth inheritance itself. The observed link between nineteenth century wealth and modern wealth does not lie in wealth transmission itself. Instead, wealth persisted because of the inheritance within families of behaviours and abilities associated with wealth accumulation and wealth retention. |
| JEL: | D31 N33 N34 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:129982 |
| By: | Jakob Molinder (Uppsala History of Inequality and Labor Lab & IBF, Uppsala University); Martin Önnerfors (Uppsala History of Inequality and Labor Lab & IBF, Uppsala University) |
| Abstract: | While the influence of neighborhoods on later life outcomes is well documented, the historical processes that shaped the growth and social makeup of urban areas are less understood. We address this by analyzing newly compiled geocoded data covering the entire population of Stockholm from 1878 to 1950. Until the 1920s, population growth stayed concentrated in the city center. After that point, expanding tram and light rail lines allowed the city to spread outward, creating more distance between homes and workplaces. Two main types of suburban areas emerged: some developed into enclaves for the elite, while others housed a mix of working-class and white-collar families. As a result, the upper class became more segregated from the broader population, while other social groups mixed more with each other, including the lowest-status households. Consequently, children from low-status families saw an improvement in the social standing of their closest neighbors, so poverty did not concentrate in ways that could have worsened negative neighborhood effects. We also examine the time spent in areas with high concentrations of low-status households, finding class inequality in the opportunity to escape, but little role for demographic factors such as the gender or marital status of the household head. Thus, while selective out-migration, similar to today, served to exacerbate the spatial concentration of disadvantage, the overall evolution of the spatial makeup of the city reduced negative exposure for children from the lowest-status households. Our results suggest that worse peer exposure for children from disadvantaged backgrounds is not a deterministic consequence of sprawl and elite isolation. |
| Keywords: | segregation, neighborhoods, urbanization, industrialization, Stockholm, economic history |
| JEL: | N33 N93 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0294 |
| By: | Bakker, Gerben |
| Abstract: | We identify a previously underappreciated data revolution starting in the 1960s, in which business information firms adopted ICT very early on to automate market data sales. Before this ‘terminal revolution’, securities firms could barely cope with the paperwork of growing trading volumes, forcing the NYSE to close on Wednesdays to allow them to catch up. The terminal revolution placed computer screens on every client’s desk, changed how data was accessed and acted on, and created virtual trading floors, foreshadowing almost all stages the internet would go through some three decades later. We focus on early entrant Reuters and late entrant Bloomberg, which came to dominate global market data provision, discussing other firms along the way. We find that theory on sunk costs and market structure (Sutton, 1998) can explain how the exploding market remained highly concentrated, despite many new entrants. We also find that financial and business news (subject to Arrow’s paradox) was a complement to data (not subject to Arrow’s paradox), and barely profitable by itself: only firms offering both financial news and data tended to survive. |
| Keywords: | news agencies; financial and business news; business information; Arrow's fundamental paradox of information; trading data terminals; exchange rates; stock prices; bond prices; commodity prices; precursors to internet; industrialisation of services; ICT productivity impact; Kenneth J. Arrow; business history |
| JEL: | L82 L86 N20 N72 N74 N82 N84 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:129938 |
| By: | Schneider, Eric B. |
| Abstract: | There is strong evidence that exposure to atmospheric pollution is detrimental to health. However, most current and historical research has focussed on the shortrun consequences of exposure to pollution on health, and historical researchers have not been able to assess the effects of pollution on a wide range of health indicators. This paper uses fog events at a daily level as a proxy for acute extreme pollution events in historical London (1892-1919). It tests whether exposure to fog at birth and at the time of sickness influenced a wide range of indicators of child health in the short and long term, including birth outcomes (birth weight, length, stillbirth, premature birth and neonatal death), mortality risk (mortality before age 15), growth outcomes (heights and weights in infancy, childhood and adolescence), and morbidity outcomes (incidence, prevalence and sickness duration from respiratory diseases and measles). Being born on a fog day did not have strong effects on birth or growth outcomes or on morbidity outcomes for upper respiratory diseases. However, being born on a fog day increased mortality risk from respiratory diseases and increased incidence, prevalence and sickness duration from measles, influenza and other lower respiratory diseases. I also find short-run effects of fog on sickness duration from influenza and measles. Overall, the mixed results suggest that atmospheric pollution caused significant ill health in historical London but only for limited dimensions of health. |
| Keywords: | ambient air pollution; morbidity; child growth; respiratory disease; health transition |
| JEL: | N33 I12 Q53 |
| Date: | 2025–06–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:128850 |
| By: | Attila Ulrich (University of Nyíregyháza) |
| Abstract: | „There is scarcely a man of sense and knowledge who would dare to question the supremacy of Tokaji wines over all other European wines.” - Selbstherr, a wine merchant from Breslau. This paper examines the transformation of viticulture and estate management in the Tokaj-Hegyalja region of the Habsburg Monarchy during the 18th and early 19th centuries, following the confiscation of the Rákóczi family's vast estates after the failed Hungarian War of Independence (1703–1711). The Tokaj wine district, a major center of high-value wine production since the 16th century, experienced significant shifts in land ownership, labour organization, and trade patterns during this period. The study focuses on how the Royal Hungarian Chamber, having taken over 89 vineyards once managed by the Rákóczi dynasty, attempted to rationalize viticultural production, enforce regulation, and re-establish export markets – particularly in the wake of the collapse of traditional trade with Poland. It draws on detailed fiscal and estate records to trace changes in yields, price levels, labour costs, and institutional control. The findings highlight the limits of state-led reform and the challenges of adapting feudal estate structures to evolving market conditions. By integrating qualitative archival analysis with quantitative production data, this paper contributes to the broader historiography on early modern Central European rural economies and the political economy of wine. |
| Keywords: | Tokaj-Hegyalja, viticulture, Hungarian Chamber, wine trade, early modern economy, institutional reform, state property |
| JEL: | N13 N53 Q13 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0293 |
| By: | Richard Disney; Tom Kirchmaier; Stephen Machin; Carmen Villa |
| Abstract: | Novel spatial data on London street gangs between 1990 and 2015 are combined with local housing characteristics to produce a newly constructed data source that shows how social housing and its architectural design relates to gang presence and neighbourhood crime. High-rise public housing estates built in the post-World War II era are much more likely to host gangs than areas without social housing. To address concerns that social housing was built in already high-crime areas, localised high-rise construction is shown to be predicted from spatial patterns of WWII bomb damage that occurred in the 1940-41 Blitz. Bomb-induced high-rise construction significantly raises gang presence and criminality, with there being especially high juvenile crime rates in gang areas. |
| Keywords: | London gangs, public housing, bombs, knife crime |
| Date: | 2026–01–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2147 |
| By: | Volckart, Oliver |
| Abstract: | How did the Holy Roman Empire solve the collective action problem of defending itself against the Ottomans between 1566 and 1606? To answer this question, the article first reassesses the extent to which the imperial estates paid their defence dues. The new approach followed here indicates that with on average 72.5 percent, compliance rates were more than 15 percentage points lower than previously suggested. The article then statistically examines factors that influenced compliance, finding that the perceived legitimacy of the grant of a Turkish Aid by the imperial diet increased the estates’ willingness to pay. Also, it finds that several groups of estates were willing to pay larger shares than their respective control groups. It argues that while the emperor used the funds to finance the wars with the Ottomans, the primary motive of these estates for contributing was securing the emperor’s support in protecting private property rights. |
| Keywords: | political economy; defence; Holy Roman Empire; Ottoman Empire |
| JEL: | H10 H26 H30 H41 N44 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:129940 |
| By: | Potter, Scarlett |
| Abstract: | This dissertation examines how the representation of luxury in Vogue magazine evolved over twentieth-century America and how its editorial discourse intersected with broader patterns of income inequality. Using a dataset of 1418 issues (1910-2000) of U.S. Vogue, it tracks the frequency of luxury-related terms and correlates them with historical U.S. income share data for the top 1%. This study combines this quantitative approach with close readings of selected issues to examine how Vogue rhetorically and visually constructed the idea of luxury across different historical and socio-economic contexts. The findings reveal a strong alignment between elite income shares and visible luxury discourse from 1910-1970, particularly during the 1920s, when Vogue portrayed luxury as aspirational and overt. After 1970, however, this relationship was disrupted: despite rising elite income, the frequency of luxury terms plateaued or declined. This relationship is further analysed through the frequency of ready-to-wear (RTW) terminology, revealing a dramatic increase in the 1960s, signalling a shift toward more accessible and commodified styles. This transition reflects broader structural changes in the fashion industry and consumer culture, including the rise of mass production, the expansion of department stores, increased access to credit and crucially the democratisation of fashion. |
| JEL: | D10 D31 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:129442 |
| By: | Vasiliki Fouka; Theo Serlin |
| Abstract: | When do people identify with their class? Evidence from social psychology shows that individuals are more likely to identify with a group if they are similar to its members. We study early 20th century Britain and show that regional cultural heterogeneity combined with internal migration influenced class identity. We develop and validate a measure of class identity using naming decisions. Exploiting within-household variation, we show that migration patterns that increased the local share of culturally-distant workers reduced working class identification. Where migration increased the cultural distance of the working class, workers were less likely to join unions, voters were less likely to support the nascent Labour Party, and parliamentary candidates were less likely to target working class voters. By 1911, slower in-migration and rising local population growth reduced working class distance in urban areas, which also became strongholds of support for Labour. Migration alters social identity and creates political cleavages. |
| JEL: | D72 J61 N33 Z10 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34721 |
| By: | Griesshaber, Niclas; Streb, Jochen |
| Abstract: | We leverage multimodal large language models (LLMs) to construct a dataset of 306, 070 German patents (1877-1918) from 9, 562 archival image scans using our LLM-based pipeline powered by Gemini-2.5-Pro and Gemini-2.5-Flash-Lite. Our benchmarking exercise provides tentative evidence that multimodal LLMs can create higher quality datasets than our research assistants, while also being more than 795 times faster and 205 times cheaper in constructing the patent dataset from our image corpus. About 20 to 50 patent entries are embedded on each page, arranged in a double-column format and printed in Gothic and Roman fonts. The font and layout complexity of our primary source material suggests to us that multimodal LLMs are a paradigm shift in how datasets are constructed in economic history. We open-source our benchmarking and patent datasets as well as our LLM-based data pipeline, which can be easily adapted to other image corpora using LLM-assisted coding tools, lowering the barriers for less technical researchers. Finally, we explain the economics of deploying LLMs for historical dataset construction and conclude by speculating on the potential implications for the field of economic history. |
| Keywords: | Multimodal Large Language Models, Information Extraction, Dataset Construction, German Patents |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:335887 |
| By: | Ayse Akinci Ambaroglu (Akdeniz University, Faculty of Theology, Türkiye) |
| Abstract: | This study explores the phenomenon of female child sacrifice as represented in mythology, ancient African and Arabian societies, and sacred texts. Anchored by the myth of Iphigenia— immortalized in a mosaic unearthed in Perge, Antalya—the research traces how war, religion, and patriarchal control converge to justify and ritualize the killing of young girls. By examining archaeological, scriptural, and mythological data, this paper argues that the sacrifice of girls often functioned as both a political-religious tool and a mechanism of social control. It also questions the historical normalization of war and why girls, in particular, became its sacrificial symbols. |
| Keywords: | sacrifice, girl child sacrifice, Iphigenia, primitive religions, pre-Islamic Arabia, African societies |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0574 |
| By: | Silviu R. Cornea (Aurel Vlaicu University, Arad, Romania) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the intricate relationship between the Christian concept of hope and its implications for contemporary perspectives on human rights and social issues. By analysing biblical teachings, theological frameworks, and historical developments, it examines how Christian hope redefines human dignity and justice in both spiritual and practical dimensions. Drawing on scriptural exegesis and theological reflections, the study highlights the transformative potential of Christian hope as a catalyst for advocacy and systemic change. Through examples from history and modern contexts, the discussion underscores the enduring relevance of this hope in addressing inequality, oppression, and human suffering while confronting the challenges and critiques associated with its application. Ultimately, the paper aims to offer a comprehensive view of how Christian hope shapes and sustains efforts to create a more just and equitable world. |
| Keywords: | Christian hope, biblical teaching, human rights, social justice, systemic change, inequality, human suffering |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0577 |
| By: | Alwis, Don Sanjeewa |
| Abstract: | The institutional approach to development typically classifies colonial institutions as inclusive or extractive. This categorization is based on formal design. This classification often overlooks how rights and protections were distributed within societies, assuming access rather than measuring it. This paper develops a Selective Inclusion framework, arguing that colonial regimes frequently built formally capable institutions while restricting access for indigenous and majority populations. To operationalize this idea, I construct a Partial Access Index (PAI) measured at independence for a sample of 62 former colonies. The index codes access in four domains: political franchise, access to executive constraints, legal uniformity, and educational-economic participation. Descriptive evidence reveals a Settler Colony Paradox: countries commonly treated as benchmarks of inclusive institutions often exhibited substantial exclusion of non-settler populations. Empirically, higher institutional access is associated with lower long-term income inequality. Robustness checks, including jackknife and region-exclusion tests, confirm that this relationship is not driven by outliers. The pattern is non-linear and region-specific. Latin America exhibits high inequality under partial inclusion. Sub-Saharan Africa exhibits high inequality under low access. These findings suggest that formal institutional strength can coexist with restricted access, and that who is included matters as much as what institutions exist. The distinction of institutional form from institutional access clarifies the persistent distributional consequences of colonial rule. |
| Date: | 2026–01–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:3c4za_v1 |
| By: | Chilosi, David; Lecce, Giampaolo; Wallis, Patrick |
| Abstract: | Adam Smith’s claim that the division of labour is one of the major engines of economic growth is a foundational concept in economics. Despite this, we lack measures of the scale and growth of Smithian specialisation over the long run. This paper introduces a novel method based on job titles to measure specialisation. We apply this method to document patterns of Smithian specialisation in early modern Britain. National trends in specialisation were closely associated with economic growth. By 1800, the division of labour was over two and a half times as advanced as in the early sixteenth century, with particularly marked changes within English manufacturing, especially in the mechanical subsector, and, to a lesser extent, services. Specialisation was far less advanced in Wales and Scotland. We study several possible explanations for this change with an IV panel analysis. We find that this significant increase in the division of labour was mostly driven by the growth of the domestic market, in line with Adam Smith’s predictions. Intensive specialisation was concentrated in Middlesex and was helped by a supply factor, Marshallian externalities. Finally, we explore the connection between Smithian Growth and the Industrial Revolution. We find that early specialisation did not lead to later industrial success. Like Adam Smith himself, Smithian specialisation did not predict the Industrial Revolution. |
| Keywords: | economic growth; division of labour; specialisation; tasks; Adam Smith; Britain; productivity; industrial revolution; market potential |
| JEL: | N13 O47 J21 |
| Date: | 2025–07–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:128849 |
| By: | Tate, Anya |
| Abstract: | The late 19th-century reforms to the British patenting system reduced the cost of obtaining a patent from over £100 in 1851 to just £4 by 1883. While increasing accessibility, this cost reduction led to an increase of low-quality patents often replicating previous inventions, raising concerns about the system's effectiveness. As a result, the 1902 policy proposed novelty examination for the first time, increasing the cost by 25%. This paper examines whether the implementation of this policy in 1905 had a differential effect on patenting activity across British regions. Despite the significance of this policy, it has received extremely limited academic attention. This research aims to fill this gap and add to the literature on the regional impacts of patent system reforms in this period. This study employs panel regressions using data on every geocoded patent sealed between 1895-1915 in the PatentCity database with regional employment in 28 industries as controls. Results indicate no change in the regional distribution of patenting activity as a result of the novelty examination. These findings are consistent with those of Nicholas (2011) for the 1883 policy and have important implications for the geography of inventive activity and the distributional impacts of invention policies. |
| JEL: | O30 R10 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:129440 |
| By: | Marzian, Johannes; Trebesch, Christoph |
| Abstract: | What are the fiscal consequences of large military buildups? To address this question, we assemble the Global Budget Database, a comprehensive dataset of disaggregated government finances for 20 countries from 1870 to 2022. We identify 114 episodes of military spending booms, in peace and war, and analyze their financing and long-term fiscal legacy. Consistent with theory, wartime booms are financed primarily through debt, while smaller peacetime booms rely on a more balanced mix of debt and taxes. In contrast to the classic notion of "guns versus butter, " we find little evidence that social spending is cut during military expansions. Instead, when societies rearm, they tend to choose guns and butter, resulting in substantially higher debt and taxes long after the military boom ends. Tax rates and tax revenues remain elevated for 15 years or more, as tax increases during the buildup are not rolled back. Large geopolitical shocks expand the fiscal state and result in a persistently higher tax burden. |
| Keywords: | Military finance, rearmament, war, fiscal policy, taxes, government debt |
| JEL: | E62 H20 H61 H87 N10 N40 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:335894 |
| By: | de Bromhead, Alan; Lyons, Ronan C.; Ohler, Johann |
| Abstract: | Poor housing conditions, and the negative effects of Household Air Pollution (HAP) in particular, remain one of the most pressing global public health challenges. While the association between poor housing and health has a long history, evidence of a direct link is lacking. In this paper, we examine a rare example of a public housing intervention in rural areas, namely the large-scale provision of high-quality housing in Ireland in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. We exploit a novel dataset of deaths-by-disease and deaths-by-age-and-sex over the period 1871–1919, to test the impact of the intervention on mortality. Our difference-in difference estimates indicate that improved housing conditions reduced mortality by as much as 1 death per 1000. This effect is driven by reductions in deaths from respiratory diseases. We propose a likely mechanism that is consistent with the pattern of results we observe: a reduction in Household Air Pollution through improved housing quality and better ventilation. A cost-benefit analysis reveals that the scheme was a highly cost-effective intervention. |
| Keywords: | Ireland; Labourers Act; household air pollution; health transition; social housing; infectious disease |
| JEL: | N33 N93 Q53 O18 J10 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:129884 |
| By: | Eric Hilt |
| Abstract: | This review essay discusses the history, causes and consequences of financial crises. In recent years scholars have assembled new sources of data and utilized new empirical designs to analyze crises, shedding light on old questions and producing new insights. This essay highlights those new insights, and uses the historical record of crises in the United States to put those insights into perspective. I begin with a discussion of the defining characteristics of financial crises and their evolution, both in the U.S. and in the rest of the world. I then revisit the chronology of crises in the U.S. since 1870. Data on bank failure rates and large-bank equity losses suggest that some panics were not full-blown financial crises, and also identify episodes when no panic occurred that could potentially be considered crises. I then turn to two categories of theoretical models developed to analyze the mechanisms responsible for crises. The first focuses on asset price bubbles, which have been associated with many crises. The second is focused on the dynamics of bank runs and panics, which have been especially common in the United States. Finally, I present an overview of the effects of crises and the mechanisms transmitting financial distress in the banking system into the rest of the economy. |
| JEL: | N1 N10 N11 N12 N2 N20 N21 N22 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34719 |
| By: | Dario Pellegrino (Directorate General for Economics, Statistics and Research, Structural Economic Analysis Directorate, Economic History Division, Bank of Italy, Rome) |
| Abstract: | The recent trend toward protectionist policies harks back to the 1930s, when rising trade barriers coincided with a dramatic collapse in international trade. This paper reviews recent studies on the interwar experience, reconstructing the series of trade restrictions introduced after 1929 and assessing their macroeconomic and geopolitical impact. While protectionism – principally aimed at preserving fixed exchange rates under the gold standard – was not the main driver of the Great Depression, it did exacerbate and prolong the crisis. Trade protectionism also had severe geopolitical effects, contributing to the deterioration of international relations and the formation of autarkic economic blocs, particularly in countries with authoritarian regimes. |
| Keywords: | protezionismo, Grande Depressione, barriere agli scambi, commercio internazionale |
| JEL: | F13 N70 N44 F52 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:workqs:qse_57 |
| By: | MacLachlan, Anne J |
| Keywords: | Arts and Humanities |
| Date: | 2026–02–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:cshedu:qt7rk1r1fx |
| By: | Goodhart, C. A. E.; Postel-Vinay, Natacha |
| Abstract: | The City of Glasgow Bank failure in 1878, which led to large numbers of shareholders becoming insolvent, generated great public concern about their plight, and led directly to the 1879 Companies Act, which paved the way for the adoption of limited liability for all shareholders. In this paper, we focus on the question of why the opportunity was not taken to distinguish between the appropriate liability for ‘insiders, ’ i.e. those with direct access to information and power over decisions, as contrasted with ‘outsiders.’ We record that such issues were raised and discussed at the time, and we report why proposals for any such tiered liability were turned down. We argue that the reasons for rejecting tiered liability for insiders were overstated, both then and subsequently. While we believe that the case for such tiered liability needs reconsideration, it does remain a complex matter, as discussed in Section 4. |
| Keywords: | corporate governance; limited liability; bank risk-taking; financial regulation; financial crises; senior management regime; banks; banking |
| JEL: | G21 G28 G30 G32 G39 N23 K22 K29 L20 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:130243 |
| By: | Walker, Paul |
| Keywords: | Research Methods/Statistical Methods |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:canzdp:263767 |
| By: | Paker, Meredith; Stephenson, Judy; Wallis, Patrick |
| Abstract: | Understanding long-run economic growth requires reliable historical data, yet the vast majority of long-run economic time series are drawn from incomplete records with significant temporal and geographic gaps. Conventional solutions to these gaps rely on linear regressions that risk bias or overfitting when data are scarce. We introduce “past predictive modeling, ” a framework that leverages machine learning and out-of-sample predictive modeling techniques to reconstruct representative historical time series from scarce data. Validating our approach using nominal wage data from England, 1300-1900, we show that this new method leads to more accurate and generalizable estimates, with bootstrapped standard errors 72% lower than benchmark linear regressions. Beyond just bettering accuracy, these improved wage estimates for England yield new insights into the impact of the Black Death on inequality, the economic geography of pre-industrial growth, and productivity over the long-run. |
| Keywords: | machine learning; predictive modeling; wages; black death; industrial revolution |
| JEL: | J31 C53 N33 N13 N63 |
| Date: | 2025–06–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:128852 |
| By: | Masahito AMBASHI; Fusanori IWASAKI |
| Abstract: | This paper, drawing on the authors’ original interviews with relevant stakeholders, examines the evolution of international industrial policies formulated by the Ministry of International Industry and Trade (MITI)—now the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) —from the 1980s to the 2000s. In response to shifting global political and economic conditions, including the overseas expansion of Japanese firms, the progress in ASEAN industrialization strategies and the rise of China, MITI’s (METI’s) policies were successively reorganized. including the bilateral New AID Plan to the multilateral initiatives aimed at ASEAN industrial upgrading and regional industrial adjustment and East Asia-wide free trade agreements and regional economic integration. This paper demonstrates that while MITI’s (METI’s) international industrial policies toward ASEAN were implemented and adjusted with the goal of maintaining and strengthening the international production networks established by Japanese firms in the region, Japan has gradually transformed its mindset from “Japan beside Asia†to “Japan within Asia, †a shift that continues to the present. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rpdpjp:26001 |