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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | James A. Robinson |
| Abstract: | My research suggests that world inequality is explained by the incidence of extractive and inclusive institutions. But why do some countries have extractive institutions? I distinguish between two main reasons; first, power relations; second, the “normative order.” Normative orders provide justifications and legitimacy for institutions which may not generate prosperity, but may achieve other goals. These distinctions are critical because they create very different challenges in trying to make institutions more inclusive and create prosperity. I show how countries move from the economic periphery as a consequence of changing both. My own intellectual journey has been in the other direction, however, hence the title of the paper: I was fortunate to be born in Britain, but I have had to unlearn much of my own experience, socialization and training in order to see other societies on their own terms. That’s crucial to be able to help them, but also to learn from them. |
| JEL: | D70 O10 P52 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33671 |
| By: | Chiswick, Barry R. (George Washington University); Robinson, RaeAnn Halenda (George Washington University) |
| Abstract: | This paper is concerned with analyzing the occupational attainment of American Jewish men compared to other free men in the mid-19th century to help fill a gap in the literature on Jewish achievement. It does this by using the full count (100 percent) microdata file from the 1850 Census of Population, the first census to ask the occupation of free men. Independent lists of surnames are used to identify men with a higher probability of being Jewish. These men were more likely than others to be managers, salesmen, and craft workers, and were less likely to be farmers and laborers. The Jewish men have a higher occupational income score on average. In the multiple regression analysis, it is found that among Jewish and other free men occupational income scores increase with age (up to about age 43 for all men), literacy, being married, having fewer children, being native born, living in the South, and living in an urban area. Even after controlling for these variables that impact the occupational income score, Jews have a significantly higher score, which is the equivalent of about the size of the positive effect of being married. Similar patterns are found using the Duncan Socioeconomic Index. This higher occupational status is consistent with patterns found elsewhere for American Jews for the 18th century and throughout the 20th century. |
| Keywords: | Jews, cccupational status, occupational income score, Duncan Socioeconomic Index, 1850 Census of Population |
| JEL: | N31 J62 J15 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17835 |
| By: | Yueran Ma; Andrei Shleifer |
| Abstract: | The analysis of corporate governance begins with a central feature of modern capitalism—the separation of ownership and control in large corporations—first empirically documented by Berle and Means (1932). Such separation entails several agency problems reflecting conflicts between managers and shareholders, such as self-dealing by managers, low effort, consumption of perquisites, and excessive growth and diversification. Berle and Means saw self-dealing as the central agency problem and stressed the law as the fundamental mechanism of addressing it. Jensen and Meckling (1976) considered the consumption of perquisites and emphasized private mechanisms, such as financial incentives for managers, to counter wasteful perks. Jensen (1986) instead focused on excessive growth and diversification, which led him to count on leverage and takeovers. The combination of public corporate governance mechanisms, mostly the law, and market governance shaped both theory and practice. |
| JEL: | G0 G3 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33710 |
| By: | Flores Zendejas, Juan; Altamura, Carlo Edoardo |
| Abstract: | Few events have attracted so much attention before being relegated to academic neglect like the 1980s debt crisis. For almost a decade, a considerable number of developing countries underwent serious macroeconomic shocks and profound social dislocations. These phenomena attracted the interest of a wide range of scholars from the field of economics, political science and sociology who published a substantial number of books and articles on the multi-faceted crises. As capital returned to the region in the early 1990s and neo-liberalism seemed victorious on the global scene, the crisis appeared to gradually disappear from the academic debate. Notably, historians only seem to appear on the sidelines of the academic debate until the Great Recession of the late 2000s. The contribution will follow the academic debate on the 1982 debt crisis from multiple disciplines to understand where, how and why the crisis gradually disappeared from the academic scene after the Brady Plan of 1989 before making its reappearance following the Great Recession, the European debt crisis and the Covid pandemic. |
| Keywords: | Debt crises, Neoliberalism, Great Depression, Debt defaults |
| JEL: | N16 N20 N26 N40 G15 G21 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gnv:wpaper:unige:184772 |
| By: | Nicholas A. Carollo; Jason F. Hicks; Andrew Karch; Morris M. Kleiner |
| Abstract: | The analysis of occupational licensing has concentrated largely on its labor market and consumer welfare effects. By contrast, relatively little is known about how occupational licensing laws originated or the key factors in their evolution. In this paper, we study the determinants of U.S. licensing requirements from 1870 to 2020. We begin by developing a model where licensing arises as an endogenous political outcome and use this framework to study how market characteristics and political incentives influence regulators’ choices. Our empirical analysis draws on a novel database tracking the initial enactment of licensing legislation for hundreds of unique occupations, as well as changes to the specific qualifications required to obtain a subset of licenses over time. We first show that, consistent with the predictions of our model, licensing requirements are more common and were adopted earlier for occupations whose tasks plausibly pose some risk to consumers. Second, large, urbanized states are significantly more likely to produce new policies. Third, among occupations regulated before 1940, licensing requirements appeared earlier in states with more practitioners and where incumbent workers likely experienced greater labor market competition. After 1980, state-level factors are more strongly associated with the timing of policy adoption. Finally, political organization, as measured by the establishment of a state professional association, significantly increases the probability of regulation. Together, our findings suggest that both public and private interests have contributed to the diffusion of licensing requirements across states and occupations. |
| JEL: | J01 J29 J4 J44 J48 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33580 |
| By: | Makoto Fukumoto (Waseda University) |
| Abstract: | This study examines how economic elites respond to democratic backsliding, focusing on Japan from 1936 to 1942. Using an original dataset of Diet membersʼbiographies and board memberships, it analyzes the Imperial Japanese Armyʼs consolidation of power and shifts in parliamentary voting patterns and affiliations during critical legislative sessions. Employing difference-indifferences and event-study designs, the research evaluates the effects of two key shocks: economic sanctions and wartime procurement. Legislators tied to sanction-hit sectors, such as textiles and petrochemicals̶the weakest performers in the stock market̶shifted toward anti-democratic positions, while those from procurement-dependent sectors, like automobiles, maintained stable stances. Case studies further illustrate how economic vulnerability drove authoritarian realignment, challenging the notion that sanctions uniformly pressure elites. The findings underscore how elitesʼchanging bargaining power, rather than static preferences, shapes their resistance to or alignment with democratic backsliding, with struggling elites being the most inexpensive to coopt. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:2504 |
| By: | Ignacio Andrés Rossi (UNGS/CIC-PBA) |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:360 |
| By: | Karsten Müller; Chenzi Xu; Mohamed Lehbib; Ziliang Chen |
| Abstract: | The Global Macro Database is an open-source, continuously updated dataset of macroeconomic statistics that unifies and extends existing resources. By harmonizing and integrating data from 32 major contemporary sources—including the IMF, World Bank, and OECD—with historical records from 78 additional datasets, we construct comprehensive annual time series for 46 variables across 243 countries. This database covers global macroeconomic trends from the origins of modern data collection to projected estimates for 2030. Using this extensive database, we study the long-run output losses of financial crises and global temperature shocks, two applications in which historical time series are a crucial input. Our findings show that financial crises are associated with statistically detectable contractions in real GDP for five decades into the future, which are considerably larger than previously estimated. Temperature shocks also predict real GDP contractions up to 30 years ahead, especially in emerging economies. |
| JEL: | E01 F01 N01 N10 O10 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33714 |
| By: | Matthias Doepke; Hanno Foerster; Anne Hannusch; Michèle Tertilt |
| Abstract: | During the first half of the twentieth century, many US states enacted laws restricting women’s labor market opportunities, including maximum hours restrictions, minimum wage laws, and night-shift bans. The era of so-called protective labor laws came to an end in the 1960s as a result of civil rights reforms. In this paper, we investigate the political economy behind the rise and fall of these laws. We argue that the main driver behind protective labor laws was men’s desire to shield themselves from labor market competition. We spell out the mechanism through a politico-economic model in which singles and couples work in different sectors and vote on protective legislation. Restrictions are supported by single men and couples with male sole earners who compete with women for jobs. We show that the theory’s predictions for when protective legislation will be introduced are well supported by US state-level evidence. |
| Keywords: | protective legislation, political economy, women's rights, labor market competition, structural transformation, family economics, gender |
| JEL: | D13 D72 D78 E24 J12 J16 N30 O10 O43 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_686 |
| By: | Davis (Department of Economics Marquette University); (Department of Economics Marquette University) |
| Abstract: | Hans-Michael Trautwein’s presidential address to the European Society raised provocative questions regarding the nature of current economics that should concern not just historians of economics but economists as well (Trautwein, 2017). Are the processes driving current research in economics creating a greater and greater specialization in subjects and economic thinking that is fragmenting and disunifying the field? Here I discuss Trautwein’s question and his answer to it particularly as bear on the future status and responsibilities of the history of economics as a field within economics. First, I give an account of what is involved in research specialization in science and economics. Second, I place increasing specialization in the subjects investigated in economics in an historical context, specifically, the postwar WWII history of the field. Third, I discuss Trautwein’s recommendations regarding a possible special, future role for the field of history of economics. Last, I offer praise for Trautwein for his perceptiveness and leadership as both an economist and historian of economics, and frame this in terms of what his insights can mean for thinking about the state of pluralism in economics. |
| Keywords: | Trautwein, history economics, specialization |
| JEL: | B20 B31 B41 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mrq:wpaper:2025-01 |
| By: | Stelios Michalopoulos |
| Abstract: | In this Handbook chapter, I examine how integrating ethnographic and folklore records has shaped research on culture and economics in the 21st century. Advances in text analysis techniques and the incorporation of historical and satellite data have transformed the field. I explore how George Peter Murdock's ethnographic contributions and Yuri Berezkin's seminal folklore motif index have been utilized to shed light on the roots of comparative development. I conclude by proposing a methodology for leveraging Large Language Models to extract cultural insights from folklore motifs, demonstrating how ancestral narratives can complement ethnographic records and offer valuable perspectives on societal norms and the historical forces shaping economic behavior today. |
| JEL: | O10 Z10 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33700 |
| By: | Maggie E.C. Jones; Trevon D. Logan; David Rosé; Lisa D. Cook |
| Abstract: | This paper studies consumer discrimination while taking into consideration the role of competition between firms, providing one of the first large-scale comprehensive analyses of consumer discrimination and market forces. We formally model consumer discrimination, where some majority-group members dislike consuming alongside minorities. In equilibrium, the non-discriminatory-to-discriminatory firm ratio is proportional to the minority-to-majority consumer ratio. Empirically, we examine how local changes in the composition of consumers altered business incentives to discriminate during the decades leading up to the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. Using a nationwide data source of non-discriminatory businesses in three different industries and a research design that leverages two sources of exogenous variation in the ratio of Black-to-White consumers, we find that increases in non-discrimination were concentrated in the least competitive markets, where the threat of defection by White consumers to competing firms was lowest. We assemble new data on over 25, 000 prices charged at establishments by discriminatory status and show that non-discriminatory firms charged higher prices than discriminatory firms in the same local market. Consistent with our theoretical model, this finding arises because the effects of greater competition among the more numerous discriminatory firms outweighed the discrimination markup. The results imply that monopoly power blunted the influence of consumer preferences and that Black consumers were harmed through higher prices in the non-discriminatory market. |
| JEL: | L11 L83 N32 N82 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33547 |
| By: | Kok, Chun Chee (Monash University); Lim, Gedeon (Hong Kong university); Shariat, Danial (UC Berkeley); Siddique, Abu (Royal Holloway, University of London); Tsuda, Shunsuke (University of Essex) |
| Abstract: | We exploit a population resettlement program of ethnic minorities in Malaysia to identify long-run effects of interethnic proximity on economic and political development. From 1948 to 1951, the colonial government moved 500, 000 rural Chinese into hundreds of isolated, mono-ethnic camps. In ethnic majority Malay communities adjacent to these camps, we find greater economic prosperity and lower vote shares for the ethno-nationalist Malay party. Effects are stronger in areas with historical, interethnic economic complementarities. Primary survey data suggests that trust-building and social integration were key channels. Our findings highlight the importance of persistent, localized contact in the co-evolution of economic and political development. |
| Keywords: | Malaysia, development, political preference, ethnicity, Chinese |
| JEL: | D72 O15 R23 J15 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17776 |
| By: | Gillian Brunet; Eric Hilt; Matthew S. Jaremski |
| Abstract: | The Liberty Bond drives of World War I were nation-wide interventions aimed at increasing financial literacy and associating bond ownership with patriotism. Using data from the first year of the Survey of Consumer Finances, 1947, through 1971, we investigate whether exposure to the drives shaped investing behavior over the long run. We find that households residing in counties that had high Liberty Bond participation had greater stock and bond ownership rates in later decades, and held more favorable opinions towards retirement saving and stock investment. These effects are present only among cohorts actually exposed to the bond drives, and not among younger cohorts in the same counties, and are robust to an instrumental variables specification that takes advantage of differences in the way the bond drives were conducted. Our estimates imply that household stock ownership rates would have been about 20% lower in the late 1960s if the bond drives had not been conducted. |
| JEL: | G11 H31 N22 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33541 |
| By: | Becker, Sascha O. (University of Warwick); Panin, Amma (Catholic University Louvain); Pfaff, Steven (Chapman University); Rubin, Jared (Chapman University) |
| Abstract: | This chapter examines the role of religion in economic development, both historically and today. Religion's influence varies globally, with high religiosity in countries like Pakistan and low rates in China. Despite declines in some Western countries, religion remains influential worldwide, with projected growth in Muslim populations due to higher fertility rates. Religion continues to shape societal norms and institutions, such as education and politics, even after its direct influence fades. The chapter explores how religious institutions and norms have impacted economic outcomes, focusing on both persistence and decline. It also examines cultural transmission, institutional entrenchment, networks, and religious competition as mechanisms sustaining religion's influence. We explore the relationship between religion and secularization, showing that economic development does not always reduce religiosity. Lastly, the chapter highlights gaps in the literature and suggests future research areas on the evolving role of religion in economic development. |
| Keywords: | networks, economic development, religiosity, cultural transmission, secularization, historical persistence, religion, religious competition, social norms |
| JEL: | D85 I25 J10 N30 O33 O43 P48 Z10 Z12 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17747 |
| By: | Zhangfeng Jin (Zhejiang University of Technology); Klaus Prettner (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of technology transfers on long-term innovation. We propose an extended Schumpeterian growth framework to characterize the channels by which technology transfers impact on innovation. Exploiting variations in the adoption of Soviet-aided industrialization programs across Chinese cities, we find that firms located in cities affected by 156 major industrial projects of the Soviet Union witness fewer Investments in research and development on average after nearly half a century. The effect is particularly pronounced for non-state-owned firms. The decline in innovation inputs is further supported by a lower probability of patenting in these localities. A likely underlying mechanism is the low adoption of performance-based reward systems that influence labor reallocation within firms, rather than inadequate capital and skilled workers. Despite prior successes during the planned economy era, the adoption of such foreign aid tends to impede innovation as China transitions towards a more market-oriented economy. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Aid, Technology Transfers, Innovation Inputs, Pay for Performance, China |
| JEL: | F35 O30 M52 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp379 |
| By: | Stelios Michalopoulos; Elie Murard; Elias Papaioannou; Seyhun Orcan Sakalli |
| Abstract: | More than a century has passed since the abrupt exodus of 1.2 million Greek Orthodox from Anatolia and their resettlement in Greece, a transformative event for the country’s social and demographic landscape. Today, more than one in three Greeks reports a refugee background. While its historical significance is well-documented, its short-, medium-, and long-term impact on human capital accumulation remains unexplored. How did forced displacement shape the educational trajectories of the uprooted and their offspring? Did refugees invest in portable skills to respond to uncertainty, or did they struggle to catch up with the autochthonous? To address these questions, we trace the educational investments of refugees and their descendants over the last 100 years, leveraging granular census data and a comprehensive mapping of both their origins in Anatolia and their settlements in Greece. The analysis provides compelling support for the uprootedness hypothesis. Though initially lagging, refugees settling in the Greek countryside eventually outperformed nearby natives in educational attainment. Their university choices also diverged, with refugees’ lineages favoring degrees transferable beyond the Greek labor market, such as engineering and medicine, and natives specializing in law and other fields with a strong home bias. Exploring additional mechanisms reveals the critical role of linguistic barriers and local economic conditions in shaping these outcomes, rather than the refugees’ pre-migration economic background. The widespread educational gains of refugees and their descendants over four generations offer some hope that the ongoing surge of forced displacement, despite its tragedy, if properly addressed by the international community, can be a backbone of economic resilience for the affected communities. |
| JEL: | J24 N34 N44 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33586 |
| By: | Marc Tabani (CREDO - Centre de Recherche et de Documentation sur l'Océanie - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Critical essays by Joel Robbins have regularly taken aim at a certain anthropological culture that is too oriented towards "continuity thinking" (2007), in the wake of a discipline that in its early days was the perfect embodiment of a "science of continuity" (ibid.). Anthropologists were trained to be uncomfortable with the study of radical cultural change and rapid, drastic social transformation. Even today, Robbins adds, few anthropologists are capable of laying the foundations for an "anthropology of revolution" (ibid.: 10). While this observation may seem debatable for the contemporary period, epistemic conservatism has long remained a feature of political anthropology of the Pacific. The absence of anthropological reflection on the social and cultural implications of nation-building policies in this part of the world until the 1980s was characteristic of the perpetuation of models that privileged the analysis of cultural continuities. A case representative of his era illustrates well the weight of conservatism that characterized Pacific anthropology until recently. When the first wave of decolonization in the Pacific began in 1962 with the accession to sovereignty of the Western Samoan Islands, anthropologists overwhelmingly preferred to focus on Marshall Sahlins' famous article Poor Man, Rich Man, Big Man, Chiefs:Political Types in Melanesia and Polynesia (1963). In fifteen pages, the author proposed a regional theory of power based on a classic colonial comparison, the ethnocultural opposition between Melanesia and Polynesia. A few years later, the Tongan-born anthropologist Epeli Hau'ofa was the first Pacific voice to criticize what he considered to be "a clever, thoughtless and insulting piece of writing [...] ; the whole article is a pseudo-evolutionary comparison, in Sahlins' terminology, between Polynesian polities and the 'underdeveloped' Melanesian ones (Hau'ofa 1975: 285)." 1 In the context of 1 The antagonism between these two great thinkers would fade, however, to change two decades later, as Tomlinson noted, into a perfect convergence with the respective publication of the essays Our Sea of Islands for Hau'ofa (1993) and The Economics of Develop-Man in the Pacific for Sahlins (1992): "Both authors share the core idea that there is a grounded set of values, practices, and interrelationships that enables Oceanic expansion. This expansion can be manifest as grander public adherence to tradition. |
| Keywords: | Socialism and post-socialism, vanuatu, ideology, development, sahlins |
| Date: | 2024–11–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05028326 |
| By: | Duleep, Harriet (College of William and Mary); Dowhan, Daniel J. (U.S. Office of Research); Liu, Xingfei (University of Alberta); Regets, Mark (National Foundation for American Policy); Gesumaria, Robert (U.S. Office of Research) |
| Abstract: | Fueling debates about the “quality” of immigrants from economically developing countries, empirical studies based on a well-respected methodology conclude that post-1965 immigrant men have low initial earnings and sluggish earnings growth. This methodology is based on flawed assumptions (Duleep, Liu, and Regets, 2022). Removing these assumptions reveals high earnings growth for post-1965 immigrant men in accordance with the Immigrant Human Capital Investment Model (Duleep and Regets, 1999). A similar story emerges for immigrant women, contradicting the Family Investment Hypothesis first put forth by Long (1980) and Duleep and Sanders (1993). It appears a pre-1965/post-1965 transition occurred in the earnings profiles of U.S. immigrants, from earnings resembling those of U.S. natives to low initial earnings but much higher earnings growth than their U.S.-born statistical twins. The transition underlies the overtime success story of immigrant families from economically developing countries (Duleep, Regets, Sanders, and Wunnava, 2021); the high earnings growth reflects human capital investment that invigorates the economy (Duleep, Jaeger, and McHenry, 2018; Green, 1999, Green and Worswick, 2012). |
| Keywords: | human capital investment, skill transferability, immigrant quality, sample restrictions, family investment hypothesis, immigrant earning growth, nonparametric estimation |
| JEL: | J15 J16 J24 J31 C1 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17831 |
| By: | Iván Albina (CCEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Jessica Bracco (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Leonardo Gasparini (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CONICET); Luis Laguinge (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CONICET) |
| Abstract: | There have been widespread public expressions of discontent throughout Latin America since the early 2010s. We exploit harmonized microdata from national household surveys covering nearly all Latin American countries to explore potential sources of discontent driven by income changes along the income distribution. We also estimate fixed-effects models that link discontent measures to changes in household incomes. Our results suggest that discontent may stem less from absolute economic performance during the 2010s than from the significant deceleration relative to the previous decade. |
| JEL: | O1 I31 I24 |
| Date: | 2028–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0349 |
| By: | Ashish Arora; Sharon Belenzon; Jungkyu Suh; Hansen Zhang |
| Abstract: | We study the post-World War II “Golden Age” of American corporate research from 1945 to 1980, using multiple indicators of corporate research activity. We use an ensemble learning approach to classify firms as either Science Leaders, Absorbers or Followers. Our analysis reveals that only a small fraction of firms, whom we call Leaders, invest in internal research that is on the scientific frontier, with the objective to generate breakthrough inventions. Absorbers invest in research principally to absorb external scientific discoveries to fuel their inventive activity. Followers typically generate incremental innovations, using older scientific knowledge. Consistent with this, we find Leaders were more likely to be at the technological frontier, enjoy greater market power, and benefit from government procurement contracts. As universities and startups began to commercialize academic discoveries, the need for “absorptive corporate labs” declined. The shift ultimately transformed the American innovation landscape, deepening the division of innovative labor between universities, startups, and incumbent corporations, with only a select group of Leader firms continuing to invest in basic science. |
| JEL: | O3 O31 O33 O34 O35 O36 O38 O39 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33713 |
| By: | Dalman, Elien; Dribe, Martin; Eriksson, Björn |
| Abstract: | Conventional social mobility research misses substantial inequalities of opportunity. To capture intergenerational persistence of family social status, we need to move beyond parent-child associations in occupation or income. We study the inheritance of surname status as a group-level process, using full-count population data for Sweden between 1880 and 2015 and surname types reflecting pre-industrial social strata. Our analyses show that social stratification by surnames occurs primarily at the level of surname types associated with pre-industrial social strata, rather than at the level of individual lineages, especially before 1950. Surname status inequality is remarkably high in 1880 but declines substantially by 2015. Surname status persistence, on the other hand, is nearly as high in the modern Swedish welfare state as in preindustrial times. Surname groups converge in status at a slow rate, with differences persisting over at least six generations. Structural transformation and the emergence of the welfare state have only implied a limited decline in surname status persistence. As a group, families with an agricultural or working-class surname backgrounds (patronyms) experience a persistent disadvantage, while noble and educated surnames display a persistent advantage. Hence, surname status persistence is not only an elite phenomenon but shapes patterns of intergenerational persistence across social classes. |
| Date: | 2025–04–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:z45fk_v2 |
| By: | Valli, Roberto (ETH Zürich) |
| Abstract: | Territorial conquest is commonly assumed to generate backlash among the conquered population. This paper argues that responses to annexation can instead vary between emigration, assimilation, and mobilization. I test the argument on Alsace-Lorraine, a region annexed twice by Germany and France between 1850 and 1938. Using novel spatial data on historical book publications to measure linguistic behavior of local elites and a difference-in-differences design, I find that both conquests caused large shifts toward the language of the conquering state. These shifts were driven by the substitution of authors, but also by systematic linguistic assimilation. Moreover, conquest promoted the mobilization of regionalist discourse, which most likely served as a tool for local elites to advocate local interests while integrating into the conquering state, rather than an secessionist form of identification. |
| Date: | 2025–04–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:cqr68_v2 |
| By: | Taylor Jaworski; Dongkyu Yang |
| Abstract: | The participation of the United States in World War II led to a substantial mobilization of domestic resources to produce the materiel used on the battlefields of Europe and in the Pacific. We produce new estimates for the impact of war mobilization on long-run economic growth and regional development in the United States over the postwar period. Guided by an economic geography model, we interpret our estimates as the direct effect of mobilization on local productivity. The findings suggest the largest likely aggregate welfare impact was modest, although there is variation across region. In addition, industrial mobilization contributed to manufacturing growth relatively more in the Northeast and Midwest, and less in the South and West. |
| JEL: | N92 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33705 |
| By: | Dalman, Elien |
| Abstract: | In this study, I describe changes in the social structure of the Swedish workforce over the long term by comparing different historical measures of stratification from early industrialization up until today: social class (HISCLASS), occupational status (HISCAM), and microclass – all based on HISCO. Importantly, I describe how these stratification measures combined describe the social structure of men and women and changing gender differences therein over time. Occupational social status is consequential for various life outcomes, but the meaning of a person’s social status depends on its relative position in the social structure they live in. I situate the changing social structure in its context of structural transformation: economic growth, women’s labor force participation, occupational diversification, sectoral change, routine vs. relational work, and skill levels among the workforce. To do so, I align occupational coding from nine full count censuses from 1880 until 1990, and occupational registers from 2001-2016 for a consistent mapping across 1810-1985 birth cohorts. I show gradual occupational upgrading and gender convergence among working men and women over the past hundred-fifty years, across all dimensions of social stratification. This is linked primarily to sectoral change (industrialization and post-industrialization) among working men and increases in skill level among working women. While vertical gender differences largely disappear by the 2000s, important horizontal gender differences in the social structure remain. Microclass overlap between genders shows that reduced gender differences are associated with increases in non-routine work among men, earlier dominated by women. Occupational upgrading has been more pronounced for working women than men, especially at the high and low end of the social structure. For men, occupational upgrading has been concentrated among higher social strata, with high-skilled classes growing at the expense of medium?skilled classes, and occupational status mostly increasing above the median – suggesting polarization during the industrialization and post-industrialization phases. Such polarization is not observed for women. |
| Date: | 2025–03–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:5bx2g_v1 |
| By: | Lukas Althoff; Harriet Brookes Gray; Hugo Reichardt |
| Abstract: | How did the US become a land of opportunity? We show that the country’s pioneering role in mass education was key. Unlike previous research, which has focused on father-son income correlations, we incorporate both parents in a new measure of intergenerational mobility that considers multiple inputs, including mothers’ and fathers’ human capital. To estimate mobility despite limitations in historical data, we introduce a latent variable method and construct a representative linked panel that includes women. Our findings reveal that human capital mobility rose sharply from 1850 to 1950, driven by a declining reliance on maternal human capital, which had been most predictive of child outcomes before widespread schooling. Broadening schooling weakened this reliance on mothers, raising mobility in both human capital and income over time. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational mobility, human capital, economic history |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11729 |