|
on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | Horrell, Sara; Humphries, Jane; Weisdorf, Jacob |
| Abstract: | E. A. Wrigley identified the responsiveness of nuptiality and marital fertility to changes in male wages. Others have theorized the importance of women's decision‐making in the timing of marriage, but without much empirical evidence. Combining new long‐run series of annual wages for men, for married and single women, and for children with existing demographic data, the influence of women and children's remuneration on household formation is investigated. Women played a key role in the functioning of early modern preventive checks. High wages encouraged single women to delay marriage, reducing marital fertility. This counterbalanced the encouragement of nuptiality stimulated by high male earnings, which helped balance population and economic growth. Juvenile earnings had little influence on family formation, challenging links suggested in accounts of protoindustrialization or proletarianization. Demographic evidence suggests that economic circumstances contributed to the timing of medieval marriage, but poverty more often than prosperity prompted celibacy. |
| Keywords: | work and pay; Britain; long-run; marriage patterns; fertility decisions; feminist economics |
| JEL: | N33 |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:120527 |
| By: | Michael D. Bordo (Rutgers University); William Roberds (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta) |
| Abstract: | We consider the debut of a new monetary instrument, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Drawing on examples from monetary history, we argue that a successful monetary transformation must combine microeconomic efficiency with macroeconomic credibility. A paradoxical feature of these transformations is that success in the micro dimension can encourage macro failure. Overcoming this paradox may require politically uncomfortable compromises. We propose that such compromises will be necessary for the success of CBDCs. |
| Keywords: | monetary systems, banknotes, central banks, digital currencies |
| JEL: | E42 E58 N10 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cepsud:323 |
| By: | William C. Dudley (Princeton University) |
| JEL: | E42 E58 F33 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cepsud:330 |
| By: | Panle Jia Barwick; Myrto Kalouptsidi; Nahim B. Zahur |
| Abstract: | Industrial policy has been used throughout history in some form or other by most countries. Yet, it remains one of the most contentious issues among policymakers and economists alike. In part, this is because the empirical evidence on whether and how it should be implemented remains slim. Scant data on government subsidies, conflicting theoretical arguments, and the need to account for governments’ short and long-run objectives, render research particularly challenging. In this article, we outline a theory-based empirical methodology that relies on estimating an industry equilibrium model to measure hidden subsidies, assess their welfare consequences for the domestic and global economy, as well as evaluate the effectiveness of different policy designs. We illustrate this approach using the global shipbuilding industry as a prototypical example of an industry targeted by industrial policy, especially in periods of heavy industrialization. Just in the past century, Europe, followed by Japan, then South Korea, and more recently China, developed national shipbuilding programs to propel their firms to global leaders. Success has been mixed across programs, certainly by welfare metrics, and sometimes even by growth metrics. We use our methodology on China to dissect the impact of such programs, what made them more or less successful, and how we can justify why governments have chosen shipbuilding as a target. |
| JEL: | L50 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33043 |
| By: | Witztum, Amos |
| Abstract: | Natural liberty is a powerful idea of social order. However, a tension has always existed between its reality and social values. Here, I try to identify where the fault line may lie between an order that fulfils social expectation and one that does not. I claim that throughout history, this fault line had been manifested in the distinction drawn between the concepts of price and value. The first emerges in markets and the second reflects social expectations. Juxtaposing the two reveals either harmony or dissonance between natural liberty and social expectations. Convergence then is a necessary condition for social validity. |
| Keywords: | alue and price dichotomy; ethics-economics relationship; natural liberty |
| JEL: | A10 A12 A13 B10 B11 B12 B13 B14 B20 B41 |
| Date: | 2024–09–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125698 |
| By: | Grant Miller; Jack Shane; C. Matthew Snipp |
| Abstract: | In contrast to earlier United States policies of open war, forcible removal, and relocation to address the “Indian Problem, ” the Dawes Act of 1887 focused on assimilation and land severalty — making American Indians citizens of the United States with individually-titled plots of land rather than members of collective tribes with communal land. Considerable scholarship shows that the consequences of the policy differed substantially from its stated goals, and by the time of its repeal in 1934, American Indians had lost two-thirds of all native land held in 1887 (86 million acres)—and nearly two-thirds of American Indians had become landless or unable to meet subsistence needs. Complementing rich qualitative history, this paper provides new quantitative evidence on the impact of the Dawes Act on mortality among American Indian children and adults. Using 1900 and 1910 U.S. population census data to study both household and tribe-level variation in allotment timing, we find that assimilation and allotment policy increased various measures of American Indian child and adult mortality from nearly 20% to as much as one third (implying a decline in life expectancy at birth of about 20%) — confirming contemporary critics’ adamant concerns about the Dawes Act. |
| JEL: | I14 I15 I18 J15 N31 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33057 |
| By: | Hamid Noghanibehambari; Jason Fletcher |
| Abstract: | Previous studies document the potential links between early-life insults and life-cycle outcomes. However, fewer studies examine the effects of local labor market shocks during early-life on old-age male mortality. This article empirically investigates this link using a large-scale deindustrialization as a source of shocks to local labor markets: the decline in the New England’s textile industry during the 1920s and 1930s. Consistent with prior studies, we find small impacts on migration and changes in sociodemographic composition of counties post-deindustrialization. Using Social Security Administration death records linked with historical censuses 1900-1940 and difference-in-difference event studies, we find reductions in longevity for those born in highly-exposed counties whose families are categorized as non-migrants and those residing in non-urban areas. The results suggest intent-to-treat effects of about 3.3 months while the treatment-on-treated calculations suggest reductions of about 4 years in longevity of children of affected families. Using 1950-1960 census data, we find that those born in highly-exposed counties post-deindustrialization reveal large reductions in schooling, decreases in high school completion, and significant decreases in measures of socioeconomic standing. We further discuss the policy implication of these findings. |
| JEL: | I1 I15 J1 N30 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33039 |
| By: | Nurfatima Jandarova (Tampere University, Finnish Centre of Excellence in Tax Systems Research (FIT)); Aldo Rustichini (University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the evolution of the distribution of genotypes in European populations over the past 14, 000 years. In our model, evolution is driven by selection operating after a shift in the productivity of agriculture, induced by the post-Younger Dryas climate change, in a Roy model where individuals self-select into one of two sectors, foraging and farming. The model extends a standard Wright-Fisher model to include two technologies and sexual reproduction. We test the model in two data sets, ancient and modern DNA, matching the observed distributions of genetic variables (allele frequencies and lineages). We show that a shift in the distribution of allele frequencies in a direction favoring higher cognitive ability, occurred when climate warming changed the relative productivity of agriculture and foraging. The general implication we draw is that historical transformations (e.g., climate change and technological change) may affect the distribution of genotype and thus economic equilibria and institutions. |
| Keywords: | technological change, occupational choice, individual characteristics, genetic transmission, population genetics |
| JEL: | E71 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fit:wpaper:27 |
| By: | Nohre, Carmen O. |
| Abstract: | [Contents:] Economic Growth Since World War II --- China (Farm Prices and Production Up – Farm Incomes Doubled – U.S. Imports Reduced) --- East Asia - Japan - South Korea - Taiwan (Rice Surpluses – Livestock Production Growing – Large Market for U.S.) --- Southeast Asia – Brunei – Burma – Indonesia – Malaysia – The Philippines – Singapore – Thailand (Rice Dominant – Corn – Wheat Imports – Other Crops – Livestock Production – U.S. Sales) --- South Asia – Bangladesh – India – Pakistan – Nepal – Sri Lanka (Rice and Other Grains – Edible Oil – U.S. Sales) --- The Pacific – Australia – New Zealand – Pacific Island Nations (Cattle and Sheep – Wheat – Tropical Products). |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries, Productivity Analysis |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersmp:347661 |
| By: | Fausto Hernández-Trillo (Department of Economics, CIDE); Aaron Zaragoza (Department of Economics, CIDE) |
| Abstract: | This article analyzes the relationship between bribes and competitive success in matches of the First Division of Spain, based on the Negreira Case scandal, which exposed payments from Barcelona FC to Enríquez-Negreira while he was vice president of the Spanish Technical Committee of Referees. Drawing on an extensive self-constructed dataset, covering more than two decades of seasons, and employing various statistical and econometric techniques, this study delves into the potential association between bribery and the likelihood of an organization achieving more victories. The results reveal a significant positive relationship between the payments made by Barcelona FC and its competitive success, even after controlling for quality. |
| Keywords: | Corruption, Barcelona, Football, LaLiga, Referee Bias, Negreira |
| JEL: | Z0 Z2 A1 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emc:wpaper:dte642 |
| By: | Stephen J. Redding (Princeton University, NBER and CEPR); Daniel M. Sturm (London School of Economics and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | We use the German bombing of London during the Second World War as an exogenous source of variation to provide evidence on neighborhood effects. We construct a newly digitized dataset at the level of individual buildings on wartime destruction, property values, and socioeconomic composition in London before and after the Second World War. We develop a quantitative spatial model, in which heterogeneous groups of individuals endogenously sort across locations in response to differences in natural advantages, wartime destruction and neighborhood effects. We find substantial and highly localized neighborhood effects, which magnify the direct impact of wartime destruction, and make a substantial contribution to observed patterns of spatial sorting across locations. |
| Keywords: | London; England; Great Britain; United Kingdom, Agglomeration, Neighborhood effects, Second World War, Spatial Sorting |
| JEL: | F16 N9 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cepsud:322 |
| By: | Andres Blanco; Corina Boar; Callum J. Jones; Virgiliu Midrigan |
| Abstract: | We develop a tractable sticky price model in which the fraction of price changesevolves endogenously over time and, consistent with the evidence, increases with inflation. Because we assume that firms sell multiple products and choose how many, but not which, prices to adjust in any given period, our model admits exact aggregation and reduces to a one-equation extension of the Calvo model. This additional equation determines the fraction of price changes. The model features a powerful inflation accelerator – a feedback loop between inflation and the fraction of price changes – which significantly increases the slope of the Phillips curve during periods of high inflation. Applied to the U.S. time series, our model predicts that the slope of the Phillips curve ranges from 0.02 in the 1990s to 0.12 in the 1970s and 1980s. |
| Keywords: | Phillips curve; Inflation; Price rigidities |
| JEL: | E30 E50 |
| Date: | 2024–09–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-78 |
| By: | Yi Chen; Adam Dearing; Michael Waldman |
| Abstract: | A common feature of historical episodes in which integration was successful, as well as episodes where integration was unsuccessful, is the aggravated harassment of the early pathbreakers who put themselves at risk by violating the previous segregated norm. Examples abound including Jackie Robinson and Larry Doby in the case of Major League Baseball, Autherine Lucy who was the first Black student at the University of Alabama, and Jane Chastain and Melissa Ludtke who were early female sports reporters. In this paper, we explore from a theoretical perspective the role of harassment of what we refer to as integration pathbreakers in the success and speed with which integration occurs. In our model of labor market discrimination, harassment occurs because the harassers receive direct and immediate utility from harassing, but also because harassment has the potential to slow down or even stop integration. Our main result is that such a setting can exhibit path dependence, where the success or failure of the early integration pathbreakers can be pivotal for the success and speed of the subsequent integration process. That is, early success is more likely to be followed by successful and faster integration than early failure, even when the early success is not due to aspects of the environment that make integration easier. In addition to our formal theoretical analysis of the role of harassment in the success and speed of integration, we apply our results to various historical episodes. |
| JEL: | D83 J15 J16 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33065 |
| By: | Emmanuel Petit (BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Emotions have been gradually integrated into economic analysis over the past thirty years. Hope, however, remains an emotion little mobilized by economists. None of the closely related concepts of common use in economics corresponds to the consensual definition found in psychology. By relying on notions such as expectations, aspirations, optimism, anticipations or even confidence, behavioral economics provides the first (admittedly insufficient) milestones for an economic theory of hope. By relying on the psychological theory of Richard Snyder, and comparing it to the transactional approach of John Dewey, we show that hope can be perceived as a mode of conduct capable of producing a transformation in individual behavior. By mobilizing the institutional theory of John Commons—and in particular the notion of "futurity"—it appears that the transactional conception of hope deepens the nature of anticipations in institutional theory. |
| Keywords: | hope, Psychological theory, Behavior, Anticipation, Snyder (Richard), Commons (John R.), Dewey (John), espoir, théorie psychologique, comportement, anticipation |
| Date: | 2024–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04715066 |
| By: | Daria Denti (Gran Sasso Science Institute); Marco Modica (Gran Sasso Science Institute) |
| Abstract: | Justice quality influence on premeditated violent crimes is widely acknowledged, however little is known on its effect on Hit&Run (H&R) accidents, which are involuntary crimes in the first stage (the “Hit†) while becoming voluntary in the second stage (the “Run†). This paper provides a quantitative estimation of the effect of justice quality on H&R accidents in the U.S, where they generate high socioeconomic and emotional cost. We exploit a unique micro-regional database for U.S. counties for 2010-2018 and an instrumental variable model which draws on the Durkheimian role of individualism in shaping the evolution of institutions. We find that higher quality of justice, induced by historical and persistent individualism, has a substantial signaling effect capable of deterring H&R. Results are supported by several robustness checks, including testing alternative measures for justice quality to account for its composite dimensions. |
| Keywords: | Hit&Run, justice quality, institutions, individualism, American frontier |
| JEL: | D02 D64 D91 K14 N91 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahy:wpaper:wp37 |
| By: | Barthélémy Bonadio; Andrei A. Levchenko; Dominic Rohner; Mathias Thoenig |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates and quantifies the impact of the diaspora remittance flows on the conflict intensity and outcomes in the Sri Lankan Civil War during the period 1996-2009. We develop an approach to infer which remittance inflows were likely to benefit the Tamil Tiger rebels relative to the central government based on Facebook connections data at the subnational level. Using shocks to source country remittance outflows, we show that exogenous increases in remittances accessible to the Tamil Tigers significantly increased their fighting strength. We then set up a quantitative model of two-sided armed conflict over many contested geographic locations, augmented with remittance flows that affect the fighting strengths of the two sides. We structurally estimate the key parameters using remittance and conflict data, and calibrate the model to the Sri Lankan subdistricts over the period of the conflict. Our main quantitative finding is that remittances had a significant impact on the timing of the central government victory, and were a substantially more important component of the military strength of the Tamil Tigers than of the government. Remittances that favored the Tamil Tiger rebels may have prolonged the war by as much as 14 years. |
| JEL: | D74 F24 O53 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33062 |
| By: | Alona Shmygel; Martin Hoesli |
| Abstract: | How many house price bubbles have there been over the last six centuries? And how have house prices responded to different types of systemic events? These two questions are addressed using house price data for Stockholm, Sweden, for the period 1420 to 2021. To answer the first question, we construct two measures to detect house price overvaluation, namely the price-to-income ratio and a fundamental price level for house prices, which is gauged against actual house prices. The second question is answered using local linear projections, with which we test the response of house prices to different types of systemic events, such as epidemics, wars, and financial crises. We check the lag with which house prices react and how long the responses last for different types of systemic events. Additionally, we investigate how the link between house prices and systemic events has changed over time. We find that bubble periods are evenly distributed over time. The price-to-income ratio appears to be sensitive to financial crises, which mostly happened during the 20th century. The influence of other types of systemic events is less straightforward and is time-varying. |
| Keywords: | Financial Crisis; House price bubble; Sweden; Systemic event |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-105 |
| By: | Sergio Destefanis (University of Salerno); Giulia Nunziante (Sapienza University of Rome) |
| Abstract: | Developing upon Golden and Picci (2005) measure of corruption, we construct a comprehensive dataset for 20 Italian NUTS2 regions. This dataset includes measures of infrastructure in physical terms throughout 1987-2019 for thirteen intermediate categories and six main classes of assets, monetary measures of public capital stock (based on the PIM approach), spanning the 1890-2019 period, for nine asset classes, and a time-varying index of sectoral public expenditure efficiency throughout 1987-2019. Relevant novelties of the new dataset are its wide time range, and the availability of information for six asset classes, as well as for core, noncore and total infrastructure aggregates. An exploratory exercise investigates the impact of the new index of public spending efficiency on the effectiveness of cohesion policies upon GDP per capita. Our findings indicate that this index significantly influences the impact of national capital-account expenditures (especially national public investments) on GDP per capita. |
| Keywords: | Golden -Picci corruption index, physical measures of infrastructure, perpetual inventory method, cohesion policies |
| JEL: | O11 O43 R53 R58 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahy:wpaper:wp52 |
| By: | Kevin S. Milligan |
| Abstract: | I develop and implement a methodology for cohort life expectancy using a panel of administrative tax data on a large sample born between 1930 and 1964. Over these 35 years, cohort life expectancy after age 54 grew by 5 years for women and 7 years for men. The income-longevity gradient for the top vs. bottom five percent of incomes is 9 years of post-54 life for men and 7 years for women. The life expectancy improvements arise across the income distribution in Canada, unlike the United States. Large differences across neighbourhoods emerge which cannot be explained by income differences alone. |
| JEL: | I14 J14 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33066 |
| By: | Pierre Aldama; Hervé Le Bihan; Claire Le Gall |
| Abstract: | We analyse post-pandemic inflation in France using the Bernanke and Blanchard (2023) semi-structural model of wage and price inflation. This model builds on a wage Phillips curve, a mark-up price-setting equation and adaptive equations for short- and long-run inflation expectations. Wage and price inflation as well as inflation expectations are modelled as functions of a labour market slack indicator (the vacancies-to-unemployed ratio), energy and food price shocks, a measure of supply-chain disruptions (“shortages”) and other exogenous factors (trend productivity, Covid lockdowns/re-openings). We estimate the model from the 1990s to 2023Q2 and derive impulse response functions and historical decomposition of endogenous variables during the pandemic-era. As Bernanke and Blanchard (2023) for the US, we find that the main driver of the post-pandemic inflation was the energy price shocks at first, followed by the food price shocks. Labour market conditions initially played a minor role in inflation, although the substantial increase in wage inflation observed between 2021Q4 and 2023Q2 can be attributed predominantly to the tightening of the labour market. Finally, we perform conditional simulations of wage and price inflation based on alternative scenarios for labour market tightness. |
| Keywords: | Prices, Inflation, Wages, Inflation Expectations, Phillips Curve |
| JEL: | E31 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:967 |
| By: | Jean-Baptiste Marigo (LaRGE Research Center, Université de Strasbourg); Laurent Weill (LaRGE Research Center, Université de Strasbourg) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effect of folklore on firms’ access to credit. Using firm-level data on a large sample of 38, 000 firms covering 124 countries and 274 cultural societies over the 2005-2022 period, we test the hypothesis that oral traditions linking risk-taking to success or failure influence access to credit. We find that folklore affects access to credit. Oral traditions associated with successful challenges increase access to credit, while those associated with unsuccessful challenges decrease access to credit. We further show that folklore influences access to credit through borrower discouragement and loan approval. |
| Keywords: | culture, folklore, access to credit, borrower discouragement. |
| JEL: | G21 O16 Z10 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lar:wpaper:2024-06 |
| By: | Robert J. Gordon |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effect of economic indicators on the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, Presidential approval ratings, and Presidential election outcomes since 1956. How closely do the indicators predict sentiment, how well does sentiment predict approval, and what role does approval have in explaining election outcomes measured by electoral votes? How much of the variance of approval ratings depends on non-economic factors like the “honeymoon effect”? Is there a role for economic indicators in explaining election outcomes once the contribution of approval ratings is taken into account? Regression equations provide answers to these questions and allow new interpretations of political history. Equation residuals and the contributions of specific variables are graphically displayed, providing insights into time intervals when sentiment was above or below the prediction of economic indicators, when approval differed from its usual relation with sentiment and the indicators, and when and why the electoral vote totals in each election since 1956 exceeded or fell short of the predictions of the econometric equations. |
| JEL: | P0 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33068 |
| By: | Philipp Ager; Casper Worm Hansen; Ezra Karger; Lars Lønstrup |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of the Great Mississippi Flood of 1927 on religious participation. We find a sharp increase in church membership in flooded areas that persists into modern times. This increase is more pronounced in conservative churches that provided more social insurance to members and had larger social costs to join. Access to alternative forms of insurance reduced the flood’s impact on the uptake of church membership, consistent with religious organizations acting as social insurance providers. The flood did not affect families’ likelihood of choosing religious names for their children: a more costly measure of religious belief. |
| Keywords: | Conservative religion, Informal Insurance; Club Goods; Economic Hardship |
| JEL: | Z12 H40 D70 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_603 |
| By: | Gardner, Leigh |
| JEL: | N00 |
| Date: | 2024–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125481 |
| By: | Lorenzo Incoronato (CSEF–University of Naples Federico II); Salvatore Lattanzio (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies a place-based industrial policy (PBIP) aiming to establish industrial clusters in Italy in the 1960s-70s. Combining historical archives spanning one century with administrative data and leveraging exogenous variation in government intervention, we investigate both the immediate effects of PBIP and its long-term implications for local development. We document agglomeration of workers and firms in the targeted areas persisting well after the end of the policy. By promoting high-technology manufacturing, PBIP favored demand for business services and the emergence of a skilled local workforce. Over time, this produced a spillover from manufacturing – the only sector targeted by the program – to services, especially in knowledge-intensive jobs. Accordingly, we estimate higher local wages, human capital, and house prices in the long run. We provide suggestive evidence that these persistent effects may depend on the initial conditions of targeted locations. |
| Keywords: | place-based industrial policy, employment, wages, agglomeration |
| JEL: | J24 N94 O14 O25 R58 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2419 |
| By: | Shigeru Fujita; Valerie A. Ramey; Tal Roded |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates why the U.S. unemployment rate rose only a few percentage points despite the dramatic decline in government spending and other upheaval at the end of World War II. Using a new longitudinal data set based on archival sources and government surveys, we study the many facets of this question. We find five main results. First, withdrawals from the labor force at the end of WWII were an important part of the explanation for the small rise in the unemployment rate. These withdrawals tended to be concentrated among females between the ages of 20 and 44 and male war veterans. Second, among those staying in the labor force, most of the workers who separated from their jobs moved directly into a new job. Third, workers accomplished these job-to-job transitions despite moving across industries. Fourth, returning veterans quickly returned to their previous position on the occupation ladder whereas those laid off from civilian jobs experienced a significant step down the occupation ladder. Fifth, a neoclassical model suggests that the post-war boom in job creation was a direct consequence of the crowding out of investment in consumer durable goods, residential capital, and business capital by military spending during the war. |
| JEL: | E22 E32 E37 E62 N10 N42 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33041 |
| By: | Benoît Walraevens (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This article offers a cross-reading of Smith and Rawls in order to highlight the fundamental role of sympathy, moral sentiments and the idea of reciprocity they contain in Rawls's theory of justice as fairness, and more specifically in the possibility of ensuring the stability of the ideal, well-ordered society through the development of an appropriate sense of justice. I study their respective moral anthropologies and their analyses of guilt, resentment, indignation and envy, highlighting the fundamental role these moral sentiments play in social cooperation. |
| Abstract: | Cet article propose une lecture croisée de Smith et de Rawls afin mettre en exergue le rôle fondamental de la sympathie, des sentiments moraux et de l'idée de réciprocité qu'ils contiennent dans la théorie de la justice comme équité de Rawls, et plus particulièrement dans la possibilité d'assurer la stabilité de la société idéale, bien ordonnée, grâce au développement d'un sens de la justice approprié. Nous étudions ainsi leurs anthropologies morales respectives et leurs analyses de la culpabilité, du ressentiment, de l'indignation et de l'envie, soulignant le rôle fondamental que jouent ces sentiments moraux dans la coopération sociale. |
| Keywords: | Smith (Adam), Rawls (John), moral sentiments, reciprocity, cooperation, sentiments moraux, réciprocité, coopération |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04700018 |
| By: | Rametta, Jack T. |
| Abstract: | Legislative support agencies provide crucial policymaking and oversight assistance to Congress. However, their authority, influence, and scope has diminished in recent decades. The Republican Revolution of 1994 precipitated this decline, slashing sup-port agency budgets and staff. But how exactly did the new Republican majority affect the oversight capacity through the support agencies? Did the ’94 Revolution diminish Congressional oversight capacity, and if so, how was the impact distributed across policy domains? To answer these questions, I compile and analyze a novel dataset:the universe of published reports and testimonies from the Government Accountability Office, Congress’ “watchdog” oversight agency. This dataset contains more than 55, 000 unique items spanning back to the creation of the agency in the early 20th century. Employing a regression discontinuity design, I investigate the effects of the Republican Revolution on GAO’s public outputs. I find the Republican Revolution corresponds with a significant reduction in the volume of policy recommendations made by GAO to executive agencies and to Congress. These findings stand in contrast with the picture painted by GAO’s reports to Congress during this period, which suggest increasing productivity despite steep cuts. I reconcile this contrast by outlining qualitative evidence that GAO manipulated reported productivity statistics to avoid additional scrutiny from its new principal. |
| Date: | 2024–10–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:7zk4p |
| By: | Adereth, Maya |
| Abstract: | Throughout the nineteenth century, powerful railway unions in the USA and the UK cultivated an expansive system of voluntary sickness, death, unemployment, and superannuation benefits. By the early twentieth century, the movements had diverged: while the British Amalgamated Society of Railway Servants relinquished its commitment to voluntarism in favor of state healthcare and pensions, the American Railway Brotherhoods persisted along voluntarist lines, resisting social insurance in favor of exclusive schemes for their white male membership. What accounts for these diverging orientations? I highlight the importance of organizational forms as a lens for understanding comparative trade union strategy, emphasizing the role of law in designating legitimate forms of working-class association. I demonstrate that governing elites in both countries promoted voluntarism as a benign form of working-class organization throughout much of the nineteenth century. Consequently, I argue, early American and British trade unions adopted benefits in part because they enabled them to mimic the far more respected and legitimate friendly and fraternal mutual benefit societies. Toward the end of the century, the context had changed: while alternative organizational avenues were opened for trade unions in the UK, benefits presented an ongoing organizational lifeline for American unions. In defining and redefining the boundaries of legitimate forms of workers’ associations, legal decisions in both countries shaped not only trade union organizing strategies in the short run but also their positioning in broader social struggles. |
| Keywords: | labor movements; comparative historical sociology; trade unions; welfare states; AAM requested |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–09–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125565 |
| By: | Ilyana Kuziemko (Princeton University and NBER); Nicolas Longuet-Marx (Columbia University); Suresh Naidu (Columbia University and NBER) |
| Abstract: | We argue that the Democratic Party’s evolution on economic policy helps explain partisan realignment by education. We show that less-educated Americans differentially demand “predistribution†policies (e.g., a federal jobs guarantee, higher minimum wages, protectionism, and stronger unions), while more-educated Americans differentially favor redistribution (taxes and transfers). This educational gradient in policy preferences has been largely unchanged since the 1940s. We then show the Democrats’ supply of predistribution has declined since the 1970s. We tie this decline to the rise of a self-described “New Democrat†party faction who court more educated voters and are explicitly skeptical of predistribution. Consistent with this faction’s growing influence, we document the significant growth of donations from highly educated donors, especially from out-of-district donors, who play an increasingly important role in Democratic (especially “New Democrat†) primary campaigns relative to Republican primaries. In response to these within-party changes in power, less-educated Americans began to leave the Democratic Party in the 1970s, after decades of serving as the party’s base. Roughly half of the total shift can be explained by their changing views of the parties’ economic policies. We also show that in the crucial transition period of the 1970s and 1980s, New Democrat-aligned candidates draw disproportionately from more-educated voters in both survey questions and actual Congressional elections. |
| JEL: | H20 J00 P00 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cepsud:321 |
| By: | Philipp Ager; Francesco Cinnirella |
| Abstract: | Nineteenth-century social reformers promoted the establishment of kindergartens as a remedy for the problems associated with industrialization and immigration. Using newly collected data on historical kindergarten statistics, we evaluate the impact that the roll-out of the first kindergartens in American cities had on poor families. We find that immigrant women exposed to kindergartens significantly reduced fertility. Their offspring were more likely to attend school, they worked less at age 10-15, and they had fewer children as adults. Kindergarten exposure also helped children and mothers of non-English-speaking households to acquire English proficiency thereby illustrating the importance of kindergartens in the social integration of immigrant families. |
| Keywords: | Kindergarten Education, Immigration, Fertility Transition, Child labor, School Attendance, Social Integration. |
| JEL: | N31 J13 I25 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_604 |
| By: | Martin Keller-Ressel; Felix Sachse |
| Abstract: | We examine the shapes attainable by the forward- and yield-curve in the widely-used Svensson family, including the Nelson-Siegel and Bliss subfamilies. We provide a complete classification of all attainable shapes and partition the parameter space of each family according to these shapes. Building upon these results, we then examine the consistent dynamic evolution of the Svensson family under absence of arbitrage. Our analysis shows that consistent dynamics further restrict the set of attainable shapes, and we demonstrate that certain complex shapes can no longer appear after a deterministic time horizon. Moreover a single shape (either inverse of normal curves) must dominate in the long-run. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2410.08808 |
| By: | Ricky Kanabar (University of Bath) |
| Abstract: | We study partnership sorting by education, the profile of wealth accumulation and the implications for intra and intergenerational wealth inequality for two cohorts born in 1947-1953 and 1973-1979 using the Wealth and Assets Survey for Great Britain. Our findings show substantial evidence of positive sorting by education relative to random matching. By the time highly educated baby boomer couples reach their mid-late 60s their reported level of net median net wealth of £2.49M is close to seven times that of low educated couples. Regarding future wealth transfers, we find baby boomer’s inheritance attitude is strongly influenced by their own lifecycle profile of wealth accumulation and in particular homeownership and level of historical inheritance received. Moreover, highly educated couples are more likely to report intending to leave an inheritance and the median level of such inheritances, £0.32M, is three times higher than that reported by low educated boomer couples. We document similar trends in the profile of wealth accumulation reported by couples born in the mid-late 1970s and separately consistent patterns in their expectations of future inheritance receipt. In terms of the composition of wealth portfolios we show the large disparities in wealth observed in both cohorts is attributable to the rate at which housing and especially pension wealth is accumulated. We underline the importance of parental education and housing tenure among both sets of parents, in addition to individuals own education, for understanding the interaction between sorting and wealth accumulation. Our findings show the nature of sorting behaviour across generations has important implications for wealth inequality now and in the future. |
| Keywords: | Assortative mating, education, wealth inequality, Great Britain. |
| JEL: | D31 D63 I24 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucl:cepeow:24-07 |
| By: | Bochun Zhu (University of Economics, Prague); Bo?ena Kade?ábková (University of Economics, Prague) |
| Abstract: | This paper deals with financial crisis and bubbles on financial markets. Authors first compare theoretical approaches to the crisis, then identify common characteristics of past financial crisis and the recent crises, then analyze price bubbles as a possible source of the crisis, ways of their estimation and possible responses of economic policies. The analytical part is focused on the case of the Czech Republic, as the paper finds some specific features in the bubble performance in the Czech Republic, as the Czech economy was characterized by the low cost of labour and very low price of properties, a heritage of the transformation era. |
| Keywords: | Financial crises, Speculative bubbles, Specifics features in the Czech economy |
| JEL: | E32 G01 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:7109710 |
| By: | Huachen Li; James M. Nason |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the debate about the demise of the Chinese silver standard in the mid 1930s. One side argues the U.S. Silver Purchase Act of June 1934 drained China of silver, which caused deflation and economic crises. A related claim is the Chinese silver standard was intrinsically unstable. These hypotheses are evaluated by estimating Bayesian structural VARs with drifting parameters on China-U.K. and China-U.S. samples from April 1912 to September 1934. We find instability in the Chinese silver standard peaked during the recession of the early 1920s and the Great Depression. Hence, neither the U.S. Silver Purchase Act of June 1934 nor a design flaw led to the end of the Chinese silver standard. |
| Keywords: | China, silver standard, exchange rate, parity deviation, Bayesian structural VAR |
| JEL: | E42 F31 F33 N25 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2024-64 |
| By: | Banzhaf, H. Spencer; Mathews, William; Walsh, Randall |
| Abstract: | This study examines the relationship between racial segregation and environmental equity in Pittsburgh from 1910 to 1940. Utilizing newly digitized historical data on the spatial distribution of air pollution in what was likely America’s most polluted city, we analyze how racial disparities in exposure to air pollution evolved during this period of heightening segregation. Our findings reveal that black residents experi- enced significantly higher levels of pollution compared to their white counterparts, and this disparity increased over time. We identify within-city moves as a critical factor exacerbating this inequity, with black movers facing increased pollution expo- sure. In contrast, European immigrants, who were also initially exposed to relatively high levels of pollution, experience declining exposure as they assimilate over this time period. We also provide evidence of the capitalization of air pollution into hous- ing markets. Taken as a whole, our results underscore the importance of considering environmental factors in discussions of racial and economic inequalities. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2024–10–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nccewp:347603 |
| By: | Sven A. Hartmann (Institute for Labour Law and Industrial Relations in the European Union (IAAEU), Trier University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the causal effects of television exposure on individual decisions regarding marriage, divorce, and family planning by utilizing a natural experiment in the German Democratic Republic during the period of German division. I exploit the fact that individuals in some East German areas could not receive Western television due to their place of residence before reunification in 1990. By analyzing survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, my results reveal that exposure to Western TV significantly reduced the likelihood of marriage and childbirth while increasing the probability of divorce among East Germans. Analyzing administrative data at the county level supports these findings. In addition, survey data from the late 1980s indicates that the observed effects are primarily due to changes in attitudes towards relationships and family life, particularly among women. |
| Keywords: | television, divorce, marriage, fertitliy, east germany, natural experiment |
| JEL: | J12 J13 L82 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iaa:dpaper:202407 |
| By: | Khan, Karim |
| Abstract: | Pakistan has been pursuing an active albeit expansionary fiscal policy since 1970s. In the mid-1970s to early-1980s, such policy choice was manifested in externally financed development spending, primarily in the form of investment in public enterprises. Despite excessive deficit financing, Pakistan’s economic performance never took off; rather, it remained on a path of truncated growth which, in turn, created structural hurdles like low productivity, poor investment climate, and higher unemployment. Likewise, deficit financing has been threatening the sustainability of fiscal framework as excessive public spending is not accompanied by corresponding enhances in domestic revenues. Consequently, these policies have caused persistence in fiscal deficit and the accumulation of public debt over time. These woes are added further by persistent deficit in external accounts and, the resultant depreciation of Pakistani Rupee, which has havocked the cost of debt-servicing over the same period. Given the history of incessant macroeconomic imbalances; currently, Pakistani economy has been trapped into a vicious circle of stagflation and low growth prospects amid unfunded losses of the State Owned Enterprises (SOEs), government guarantees to the Independent Power Producers (IPPs), unsustainable debt and huge cost of debt-servicing, sky-rocketing prices of the essential items, frequent though unsuccessful bail-outs of the IMF, low credit worthiness and negligible level of investment among others. This review is focusing on a detailed analysis of Pakistan’s fiscal and debt policies, with a view to provide a framework for resolving the structural economic woes that the country has currently been faced with. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Policy; Debt, Fiscal Deficit; Truncated Growth, Structural Economic Woes, Pakistan |
| JEL: | E62 H11 H50 H62 H63 |
| Date: | 2024–10–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122427 |
| By: | Alvaredo, Facundo; Berman, Yonatan; Morelli, Salvatore |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the estimation of wealth distribution using estates left at death. We establish formal conditions for adopting a simplified version of the classic estate multiplier method, using only minimal information on estates and mortality. We empirically validate these conditions and apply the simplified approach to produce novel long-run top wealth share series for Belgium, Japan, and South Africa, where estate data have not yet been exploited. This approach may vastly expand the range of countries and years for which wealth inequality can be estimated, where estate data exist but the standard method cannot be applied. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper) |
| Date: | 2024–10–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:a4frb |