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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | Devlin, Nicholas |
| Abstract: | There is a consensus in the literature that the Marxism of the Second International (1889-1916) lacked philosophical sophistication and that understanding of Marxism’s Hegelian origins was lost soon after Karl Marx’s death, only to be recovered with the emergence of Western Marxism in the 1920s. This article challenges this consensus, urging revision of the basic outlines of the intellectual history of Marxism. It begins by sketching two ways contemporary scholars understand the Hegel-Marx connection. It then shows that these views were anticipated before World War I in the work of Max Adler. Against the view that Hegel was “put back into Marxism” in the 1920s or 1970s, then, this article maintains that there have always been sophisticated as well as simplifying accounts of the Hegel-Marx connection. |
| Keywords: | Marxism; Hegel; Max Adler; Karl Marx; intellectual history |
| JEL: | B14 B24 P2 P3 |
| Date: | 2026–03–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128745 |
| By: | Schneider, Eric B; Jaramillo Echeverri, Juliana; Purcell, Matthew; A'Hearn, Brian; Arthi, Vellore; Blum, Matthias; Brainerd, Elizabeth; Capuno, Joseph; Cermeño, Alexandra Lopez; Challú, Amílcar; Cho, Young-Jun; Cole, Tim; Corpuz, Jose; Depauw, Ewout; Droller, Federico; von Fintel, Dieter; Floris, Joël; Galofré-Vilà, Gregori; Harris, Bernard; Hatton, Tim; Heyberger, Laurent; Hurme, Tuuli; Inwood, Kris; Jaadla, Hanaliis; Kok, Jan; Kopczynśki, Michał; Lordemus, Samuel; Marein, Brian; Meisel-Roca, Adolfo; Morgan, Stephen; Öberg, Stefan; Ogasawara, Kota; Ortega, José Antonio; Palma, Nuno; Papadimitriou, Anastasios; Pistola, Renato; Quanjer, Björn; Rother, Helena; Saaritsa, Sakari; Salvatore, Ricardo; Staub, Kaspar; van der Eng, Pierre; Roberts, Evan |
| Abstract: | Introduction Child stunting, a measure of malnutrition, is a major global health challenge affecting 148.1 million children in 2022. Global stunting rates have declined from 47.2% in 1985 to 22.3% in 2022; however, trends before the mid-1980s are unclear, including whether child stunting was previously prevalent in current high-income countries (HICs). We conducted a systematic review of child growth studies before 1990 to reconstruct historical rates of child stunting. Methods We included reports of mean height by age and sex for children up to age 10.99 years. We excluded studies that were not representative of the targeted population and data for children under age 2. Stunting rates were computed by converting the means and SDs of height to height-for-age Z-scores (HAZ) using the WHO standard/reference, combining the HAZ distributions for all ages and measuring the share of the combined distribution below the stunting threshold. Results We found 923 child growth studies at the community, regional and national level covering 122 countries from 1814 to 2016. We supplemented these historical studies with stunting estimates from the 1990s onward from the Joint Malnutrition Estimates database. Many current HICs had high levels of child stunting in the early 20th century, similar to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) today. However, there was heterogeneity: stunting rates were low in Scandinavia, the European settler colonies and in the Caribbean, higher in Western Europe and exceptionally high in Japan and South Korea. Child stunting declined across the 20th century. Conclusion The global child stunting rate was substantially higher in the early 20th century than in 1985, and the reduction of child stunting was a central feature of the health transition. The high stunting rates and subsequent reduction of stunting in HICs suggest that current HICs provide lessons for eradicating child stunting and that all LMICs can eliminate stunting. |
| Keywords: | nutrition; stunting; public health; child health; medical demography; humans; growth disorders; prevalence; child development; developed countries; history; 19th Century; history; 20th Century; child; child; preschool; infant; female; male; global health |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2026–02–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137470 |
| By: | Jona Whipple |
| Abstract: | View pivotal times and events through digital library FRASER's extensive collections of historical economic data, policy briefs, archival materials, and more. |
| Date: | 2024–06–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00100:102730 |
| By: | Genevieve Podleski |
| Abstract: | Digital library FRASER added 35, 000-plus new items over the past year, including new collections from partners across the Federal Reserve System and the federal government. |
| Keywords: | economic history; financial history; banking history; Federal Reserve System history; archival digitization; historical documents |
| Date: | 2026–03–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00100:102893 |
| By: | Rodríguez Weber, Javier |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a historical hypothesis on the dynamics of income inequality in core capitalist societies, expanding Branko Milanovic’s Kuznets Waves framework. While Milanovic argued that inequality follows long-term cyclical patterns driven by technological revolutions and their political consequences, this study extends his theory by emphasizing the link between inequality and systemic instability at both extremes—when inequality is either too high or too low. It contends that capitalism becomes unstable not only when excessive inequality erodes political legitimacy and financial balance, but also when very low inequality undermines profitability and capital accumulation. In both cases, the resulting instability precipitates crises that compel institutional transformation. Reforms reinforcing the status quo tend to fail, as inequality cannot rise or fall indefinitely; only structural change can restore stability and initiate a new cycle. Through a historical examination of major turning points—from the Industrial Revolution and the Great Depression to postwar reconstruction and the neoliberal turn—the paper illustrates how inequality trajectories emerge from critical junctures of crisis and reform. It concludes that the current phase of high inequality may be nearing its upper limit, potentially heralding another institutional realignment—though not necessarily one of greater equality or stability. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, Political Instability, Economic crisis, Kuznets waves, Capitalism |
| JEL: | D31 D33 E39 N10 P16 |
| Date: | 2025–11–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127306 |
| By: | Pinar Ceylan (Ghent University); K. Kivanc Karaman (Bogazici University); Sevket Pamuk (Bogazici University) |
| Abstract: | Using a large body of mostly archival price data, this study examines wheat market integration across the Ottoman Empire and puts it in the context of broader European trends. We find that rates of Ottoman market integration fluctuated without a clear trend during the early modern era followed by greater international integration and geographically uneven domestic integration in the nineteenth century. Overall, Ottoman gains were slower than those in Western Europe in both periods. Our regression analysis points to the role of geography and technological and institutional changes including changes in state capacity as the main forces shaping integration patterns. |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1805 |
| By: | Fabricio Jose Missio (Cedeplar/UFMG) |
| Abstract: | Brazil experienced one of the most intense industrialization processes among peripheral economies during the twentieth century. Between 1930 and 1980, industry significantly increased its share of output, the productive base diversified, and the country built relevant capabilities in several strategic sectors. Nevertheless, Brazil did not achieve sustained technological convergence with advanced economies. This article argues that the Brazilian case reflects an incomplete structural transformation: substantial modernization occurred, but technological dependence and productive heterogeneity persisted. By examining the stages of Brazil’s development—from the agro-export economy to import-substitution industrialization and the challenges of the contemporary period—the article suggests that the central dilemma was not the absence of industrialization, but the difficulty of sustaining cumulative learning and productive diversification. |
| Keywords: | Productive Structure; Industrialization; Structural Change; Economic Development; Brazilian Economy |
| JEL: | O11 O14 N16 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdp:texdis:td695 |
| By: | Heather Hennerich |
| Abstract: | Fed resources offer a view of women in economic history, from their participation in the labor force to their leadership in the economics field. |
| Date: | 2024–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00100:102720 |
| By: | Henderson, Louis; Humphries, Jane |
| Abstract: | Caring labour, whether paid or unpaid, creates value, supports economic activity, and generates positive externalities, yet suffers neglect in conventional economic metrics. Breastfeeding exemplifies this: despite its critical role in infant health and social reproduction, its value is often unrecognized. Using historical data on weaning practices between 1850 and 1970, this paper traces how infant feeding interacted with broader economic and public health developments. As its economic costs fell and its benefits were better understood, prolonged breastfeeding protected infants from weak public health infrastructure. Yet as scientific discoveries on milk composition spurred commercial substitutes, and public health investment reduced the harms of early weaning, breastfeeding prevalence declined. The economic history of breastfeeding offers a study in how social and economic interventions yield unintended consequences. Our findings highlight the need for public policy that acknowledges care labour’s broader societal benefits, ensuring it is adequately supported rather than left to individual responsibility. |
| Keywords: | care work; health externalities; breastfeeding; economic growth and measurement |
| JEL: | N34 D63 J13 |
| Date: | 2026–03–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127992 |
| By: | Johan Fourie (LEAP, Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University) |
| Abstract: | South Africa has one of the highest levels of inequality globally. This paper shows that such inequality is not a recent development. Using several newly transcribed datasets from the seventeenth, eighteenth and nineteenth-century Cape Colony, I calculate historical wealth inequality across different groups and regions. The sources – including tax censuses, probate inventories, slave valuation rolls and Khoe mission settlement records – offer rare insight into the structure of preindustrial society, allowing for comparisons over time and across settler, enslaved and Khoe households. I go beyond the Gini coefficient by computing the Theil index, the Palma ratio and bootstrapped confidence intervals. The results reveal persistently high levels of within-group inequality and highlight the concentration of productive resources across all groups with available data. The corrected basket Gini for the Stellenbosch-Drakenstein district rises from approximately 0.74 in the 1690s to approximately 0.89 by the late eighteenth century, before dipping slightly in the early nineteenth century; the Theil index peaks above 3.6 in the late eighteenth century before falling sharply; and the Palma ratio reaches extreme values – exceeding 3, 000 in some decades – revealing a large assetless population. Including enslaved people as zero-asset households pushes the Gini above 0.95, comparable to Caribbean slave economies. In international perspective, the Cape Colony ranks among the most unequal preindustrial societies for which quantitative evidence exists. The evidence suggests that severe economic inequality has long been a defining feature of South African society. |
| Keywords: | inequality, Gini, Theil, Cape Colony, slavery, South Africa |
| JEL: | D63 N37 N57 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers394 |
| By: | Luca Repetto; Davide Cipullo; Edward Pinchbeck; Jan Bietenbeck |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how World War I mortality shocks to British communities affected long-run innovation. Linking parish-level military deaths to universal patent data (1895–1979) and inventor records, we compare high- and low-mortality areas. A 10 percent increase in deaths reduces the probability that a parish produces any patent by 0.09–0.12 percentage points and the probability that a parish produces a breakthrough patent by three times as much. Mortality depresses both the entry of new inventors and the productivity of established ones, particularly in frontier and technologically complex fields. Mobility, collaboration, and stronger local innovation ecosystems mitigate these effects, albeit only partially. |
| Keywords: | World War, innovation, human capital, patents, lost generation |
| JEL: | D74 O15 O31 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12529 |
| By: | Angel De la Fuente |
| Abstract: | This Working Paper briefly describes the latest update of RegData, a database that compiles the main economic and demographic aggregates for Spain’s regions over the past six decades. This Working Paper briefly describes the latest update of RegData, a database that compiles the main economic and demographic aggregates for Spain’s regions over the past six decades. |
| Keywords: | Population, Población, RegData, RegData, income, renta, homogeneous series, series homogéneas, Spain, España, Macroeconomic Analysis, Análisis Macroeconómico, Regional Analysis Spain, Análisis Regional España, Employment, Empleo, Working Paper, Documento de Trabajo |
| JEL: | E01 R1 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bbv:wpaper:2601 |
| By: | Tetsuji Okazaki (The University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | Murai Bank was a middle-sized bank in prewar Japan, which was bankrupted under the financial crisis in 1927. In the literature, Murai Bank has been regarded as a typical “organ bank, †i.e. a bank which was founded by a certain business group as an instrument to supply fund to the firms within the group. However, because of the constraint of historical materials and data, the business of Murai Bank has not been well documented. Integrating the information from its business reports, the report of the Bank of Japan after its bankruptcy, and newly found document of the Murai family, this paper comprehensively describes the growth and bankruptcy of Murai Bank. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:jseres:2026cj316 |
| By: | Megan Cruz |
| Abstract: | Highlights from a Principal Chief Geoffrey Standing Bear interview cover the Osage Nation's history and advancing financial well-being for Osage people today. |
| Date: | 2024–08–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00100:102735 |
| By: | Cokic, Marco |
| Abstract: | There is a growing body of literature on the economic history of Eastern Europe during the Cold War, thereby mainly trying to explain the demise of the Eastern bloc by discussing a range of different aspects. Trade has been largely excluded so far, even though Socialist countries were participating in international trade. This paper aims to discuss the impact of one of the most remarkable events in this period, the accession of four Socialist countries into the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), which is an explicitly Capitalist trade treaty, between 1966 and 1973. The results suggest that the signing of GATT is associated with a 48–56 per cent increase in export volume, depending on the type of specification. However, the paper finds modest welfare gains for these countries, which can be explained by their comparatively closed economies and other barriers to trade beyond tariffs. Given the methodological limitations, the results should be understood as the lower boundary of the actual impact of GATT on Socialist countries, thereby suggesting that trade deals between countries with different economic and political structures can be beneficial. |
| Keywords: | GATT; trade agreements; socialist countries; Cold War; Eastern Europe |
| JEL: | F13 F14 N44 N74 O24 P33 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:137522 |
| By: | GUISAN, Maria-Carmen |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a brief history of the Euro-American Association of Economic Devleopment Studies (EAAEDS) on its 25th Anniversity. This is a little-big association that has contributed to publish many interesting cuantitative studies on Education, World development and Quality of Life. We wish to highlight the interest of the contributions of the journals, books and reports published by the Association for the period 2001-2025. We cite several articles related with the important role of Education, Industria, Trade and other variables on World Development and include lists of the most popular articles. We have analyzed international development with panel data of many countries, for several periods, and the empirical evidence shows that Education is generally the main driver of development thanks to its positive effects on social values, the quality of government, industrial and non-industrial production per capita, and quality of life. The Association was founded by members of the Econometrics Team at the Faculty of Economics of the Spanish University of Santiago de Compostela in year 2001 and is grateful to the support from prestigious authors from many countries, including Nobel Prize Lawrence R. Klein who lent his support by accepting the position of Honorary President of the Association, from year 2004 until his deeply felt passing in 2013. |
| JEL: | C5 I2 I3 O11 O51 O52 O53 O54 O55 O56 O57 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eaa:ecodev:133 |
| By: | Amado, Lindorf |
| Abstract: | Standard economic models often treat money as a social construct independent of physical laws. This paper proposes a unified thermodynamic theory of value, positing that monetary systems are information protocols evolved to maximize entropy production in dissipative structures (civilizations). By analyzing 10, 000 years of economic history—from the Neolithic era to the Digital Age—we demonstrate a strict linear relationship (R2 = 0:9934) between the Real Cost of Energy (E) and the Granularity of Money (G). We derive the Equation of Value, G / E, where the value of the accounting unit scales directly with the energy cost of labor. This framework resolves historical anomalies such as the collapse of the Roman Denarius and the failure of the 20th-century Gold Standard, interpreting them not as policy errors, but as thermodynamic phase transitions. The theory predicts that the current decline in the marginal cost of energy (via AI and renewables) necessitates a transition to a monetary substrate with near-infinite divisibility and zero friction. |
| Keywords: | Thermodynamics, Monetary Theory, Entropy, Granularity, Econophysics, AI, Gold Standard, Collapse, Deterministic |
| JEL: | B52 C10 E42 N10 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–12–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128172 |
| By: | Julien Monerie (UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | Abstract–. In his book on the origins of deposit banking, R. Bogaert concluded that there had been no banking activity in Babylonia. Since the 1990s, however, several Assyriological studies have invalidated these conclusions, and shown that such activities did indeed exist in Babylonia during the Achaemenid and Hellenistic periods. The aim of this article is to present the results of these studies, in order to analyze the characteristics of this cuneiform dossier, the evolution of documented practices and the identity of the individuals who took part in these activities. |
| Abstract: | Résumé–. Dans son ouvrage consacré aux origines de la banque de dépôt, R. Bogaert avait conclu à l'absence d'activités bancaires en Babylonie. Néanmoins, depuis les années 1990, plusieurs études assyriologiques ont invalidé ces conclusions et montré que de telles activités existaient bel et bien en Babylonie aux époques achéménide et hellénistique. La présente étude se propose de revenir sur les acquis de ces travaux, afin d'étudier les caractéristiques de ce dossier cunéiforme, l'évolution des pratiques documentées et l'identité des individus qui prenaient part à ces activités. |
| Keywords: | banking, deposit, Babylonia, Achaemenid, Hellenistic, banque, dépôt, Babylonie , achéménide, hellénistique |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05458434 |
| By: | Frédérique Duyrat (EPHE - École Pratique des Hautes Études - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres, Ashmolean Museum, University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | Abstract–. This article provides an overview of how ancient Greeks and their neigbours safeguarded their private wealth from the 7th to 1st century BC. It focuses on metal, one of the most durable of goods and the only one that is well documented by texts and archaeology. It examines literary sources, archaeological evidence, and iconography to explore the reasons for hoarding, and the methods and locations used for safekeeping. The study reveals that Greeks employed a variety of containers, from simple bags to elaborate chests, to protect their assets. Common hiding places included homes, buried caches, and sacred precincts. |
| Abstract: | Résumé-. Cet article étudie la manière dont les Grecs et leurs voisins protégeaient leur richesse privée, du VIIe au Ier siècle avant J.-C. Il se concentre sur le métal, l'un des biens les plus durables et le seul bien documenté par les textes et l'archéologie. Il examine les sources littéraires, archéologiques et iconographiques pour explorer les raisons de la thésaurisation et les méthodes et lieux utilisés pour la mise en sécurité des biens considérés. Les Grecs employaient des contenants variés, allant de simples sacs à des coffres élaborés, pour protéger leurs avoirs. Les cachettes courantes incluaient les maisons, le sol et les enceintes sacrées. |
| Keywords: | Ancient Greece, wealth hoarding, safekeeping, container, Grèce antique, richesse, thésaurisation, protection des biens, contenant |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05458499 |
| By: | Karl Bergemann (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University); Gabriel Brown (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University); Johan Fourie (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University) |
| Abstract: | Recent scholarship on slave escapes has increasingly emphasised economic motivation, but few studies have empirically investigated how market incentives influenced the decision-making of enslaved individuals during transitions from coerced to wage labour. This paper fills that gap by exploring whether runaway slaves at the British Cape Colony were driven by the desire to improve their labour market opportunities as slavery gave way to emancipation. To answer this question, we construct a novel dataset of 689 runaway advertisements published between 1830 and 1838, drawn from two major colonial newspapers, and link these records to individual-level valuations compiled at the time of de jure emancipation in December 1834. Using both difference-in-differences and regression discontinuity in time analyses, we find that escapes increased markedly among higher-valued, more productive enslaved individuals immediately after de jure emancipation, rising by over 100 per cent relative to the pre-emancipation average. These escape attempts gradually declined, however, as de facto emancipation approached in 1838. Our results suggest that enslaved individuals responded rationally to shifts in labour market conditions, challenging the conventional view of escape as solely a reaction to harsh treatment. By quantifying the relationship between institutional change and labour coercion, this paper contributes directly to theoretical debates on how market incentives shape behaviour under conditions of economic unfreedom. |
| Keywords: | Slavery, desertion, labour market, runaway, Cape Colony, emancipation |
| JEL: | J47 N37 D74 J15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers393 |
| By: | Torun Dewan (Department of Government, London School of Economics and Political Science); Christopher Kam (Department of Political Science, University of British Columbia); Jaakko Meriläinen (Department of Economics, Stockholm School of Economics); Janne Tukiainen (Department of Economics, University of Turku) |
| Abstract: | Hirschman’s Exit, Voice, and Loyalty (1970) proposed that organiza tions persist when loyalty tempers incentives to exit after adverse shocks. We test this argument using newly digitized individual-level voting records from 28 English constituencies (1832-1868), covering 134, 000 real votes. Voters could exit by switching parties, use voice by splitting their two votes between opposing parties, or remain loyal. Exploiting favorite candidates’ exit as a negative shock to the choice set, we show that candidate exits increased party switching more than expressing voice. We show that candidate exit initially induces substantial voter exit and voice, especially among Liberal voters, but that these responses attenuate sharply by the mid-1860s, consistent with the consolidation of party organizations and the emergence of durable partisan loyalty. |
| Keywords: | candidate turnover, electoral volatility, exit-voice-loyalty, party loyalty, political development, vote switching, voting behavior |
| JEL: | D72 N43 P00 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tkk:dpaper:dp178 |
| By: | Fabricio Jose Missio (Cedeplar/UFMG) |
| Abstract: | Why do some countries experience sustained economic growth and remain distant from the technological frontier? This article argues that underdevelopment should not be understood simply as historical backwardness or insufficient growth, but rather as the outcome of a specialized, heterogeneous productive structure dependent on external technological progress. Drawing on the Latin American structuralist tradition, the paper shows how the uneven diffusion of technology in the international system conditions distinct patterns of productive insertion. In peripheral economies, industrialization may occur in an incomplete form, preserving external dynamic centers and limiting the domestic generation of innovation. The central argument is that when the productive base does not undergo deep and articulated transformation, economic growth tends to reproduce external vulnerability, internal heterogeneity, and limited technological convergence. |
| Keywords: | Structural change; Productive structure; Underdevelopment; Incomplete industrialization; Centre–periphery |
| JEL: | O11 O14 O33 F63 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdp:texdis:td694 |
| By: | Srinivas Raghavendra (University of Galway, Ireland) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how the financialization of advanced capitalist economies in the 1990s relates to the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) as the dominant technological framework in the 21st century. Using insights from political economy and Kaleckian theory, it suggests that AI is not a break from previous trends but a continuation and intensification of the computational rationality developed during the late 20th century's shift toward finance-led capitalism. The study highlights three structural limits that AI introduces to capitalist reproduction: the zero-slack labor constraint, the full-employment constraint, and resource limitations. These limits and their interactions threaten to destabilize the class relationship between capital and labor, the territorial basis of the state, and the legitimacy of democratic capitalism. The paper proposes that the emerging oligarchic state faces a legitimacy crisis that might be alleviated by universal basic income (UBI), which could serve as a political tool to maintain democratic support amid automation and inequality. It concludes by reflecting on how capitalism, much like an adaptive biological system, sustains itself through ongoing structural transformations, reshaping its institutions and practices to enable it to deflect existential threats while preserving its core logic of private appropriation. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ico:wpaper:178 |
| By: | Howard, Greg (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign); Oh, Namgyoon (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign); Weinstein, Russell (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effects of 4-year public historically black colleges and universities (HBCUs) on social mobility of nearby Black and White children. To identify a causal effect, we use the historical fact that many HBCUs began as normal schools to train Black teachers, and we argue that the site selection was similar for insane asylums for Black individuals (as well as all asylums). We find that in recent years Black children from Black normal school counties are 7 percentage points more likely to graduate from college and move up 2 percentiles in the income rankings relative to Black children from control insane asylum counties. We do not see these effects for White children. |
| Keywords: | HBCUs, economic mobility, college access |
| JEL: | I23 I24 J15 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18402 |
| By: | Munashe Chideya (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University); Johan Fourie (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University) |
| Abstract: | Between 1897 and 1902, despite formal prohibitions, Cape Colony civil servants and politicians invested in private real estate joint-stock companies. Using Cape company records, civil service registers, newspapers and government correspondence, this article reconstructs these investments and traces how parliamentary procedures, especially private bills for railways, harbour works and water rights, were leveraged to inflate land values for personal gain. Across eight companies, twenty-two politicians and seven civil servants invested 57, 907 pounds, representing 23.17 per cent of the total paid-up capital. While civil servants, who invested 1, 770 pounds of the total, were largely passive investors, politicians, who invested 56, 137 pounds, dominated capital subscriptions and occupied directorates, shaping legislation and land-use policy. Case studies of the Milnerton Estates and Saldanha Bay companies reveal that such conflicts of interest were publicly debated but poorly contained. This article argues that real estate speculation illustrates how enterprise and state power co-produced colonial urban space in the Cape. |
| Keywords: | corruption, real estate, joint-stock company, government official, civil servant, politician, land speculation |
| JEL: | N47 D73 N97 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers392 |
| By: | Wim Naudé (RWTH Aachen University & University of Coimbra, CeBER) |
| Abstract: | The Hard Steps model is applied to argue that the Industrial Revolution (IR) heralded a terminal phase of human existence. Assuming six hard steps, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov method is used to pinpoint the start of the IR to ˜ year 1700. Once these hard steps were cleared, the global economy entered a growth spiral which, as in the multistage carcinogenesis model of cancer, will terminate once a lethal burden is reached. The Doomsday Argument suggests this happening within 900 years. Thermodynamic limits, however, indicate a limit in less than 400 years, and of about 26 years after invention an Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI). The IR may be the Great Filter, explaining the Fermi Paradox. Alternatively, current human observers may be living in an ancestor simulation designed to study late-stage capitalism. |
| Keywords: | Industrial Revolution, capitalism, economic growth, collapse |
| JEL: | O40 N10 P10 J11 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gmf:papers:2026-04 |
| By: | Zachary Bleemer |
| Abstract: | The Vietnam draft conscripted hundreds of thousands of young Americans into an integrated military. I combine near-random draft lottery variation with administrative voter data to study the long-run racial integration effects of coerced national service. Black and Native American veterans became more likely to marry white spouses, identify as Republicans, and live in more-integrated neighborhoods. Improved economic standing may partly mediate these effects. Effects are larger for Southerners and are precisely null for white veterans. Coerced military service generates substantial but asymmetric cross-racial political convergence and racial integration: Vietnam-era service caused about 20 percent of affected cohorts' interracial marriages. |
| JEL: | H56 J12 J15 R21 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34900 |
| By: | Milagros Onofri (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Inés Berniell (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Raquel Fernández (NYU & NBER & CEPR); Azul Menduiña (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the sharp decline in fertility across Latin America using both period and cohort measures. Combining Vital Statistics, Census microdata, and UN population data, we decompose changes in fertility by age, education, and joint age–education groups. We show that the decline in period fertility between 2000 and 2022 is driven primarily by reductions in within-group birth rates rather than by changes in population composition, with the largest contributions coming from younger and less-educated women. Comparing the cohort born in the mid 1950s and the one born in the mid 1970s, we find that the decline in completed fertility reflects not only delayed childbearing but also substantial reductions in the average number of children per woman. This is driven primarily by lower fertility among mothers rather than by rising childlessness. Our findings provide new evidence on the nature of Latin America’s transition to below-replacement fertility and highlight several open questions for future research. |
| JEL: | J11 J13 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0368 |
| By: | Charles Yuji Horioka |
| Abstract: | 本稿では、日本の家計貯蓄率の過去と将来について検証し、日本の家計貯蓄率は過去に おいて常に高かった訳ではなく、戦後に限れば、15%の水準を上回ったのは、1961～86 年の26 年間の間だけであったということを示す。なお、日本の家計貯蓄率は1970 年代 半ばまでは上昇傾向を示したが、（新型コロナウイルスの影響が大きかった2020-21 年 の期間を除けば）1970 年代半ば以降、低下傾向を示しており、今後、人口の高齢化に伴 ってさらなる低下を見せ、マイナスにまで落ち込む見通しであるということを示す。さ らに、日本の家計貯蓄率の最も重要な決定要因は人口の年齢構成であり、人口の年齢構 成によって日本の家計貯蓄率の水準も、過去および将来の動向もおおむね説明できると いうことを示す。 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1305 |
| By: | Leiva, Juan Carlos; Núñez, Evelyn |
| Abstract: | La comprensión de la naturaleza del empleo y el emprendimiento ha sido un tema de interés en las ciencias económicas y sociales de larga data, desde los trabajos pioneros de economistas clásicos como Adam Smith, David Ricardo, Karl Marx, Richard Cantillon, o Joseph Schumpeter, entre muchos otros, hasta los llamados más recientes provenientes de la literatura científica (Filippi et al. , 2023; Hajat et al. , 2024; Gupta 2024). Es tal la relevancia de este tema que incluso la Agenda 2030 de las Naciones Unidas, aprobada en 2015, incluye un objetivo específico dedicado al tópico (Trabajo Decente y Crecimiento Económico) como uno de los 17 Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible (ODS). |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:4467 |
| By: | Bell, Peter |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a statistical analysis of the historical data for global copper prices from the World Bank for the period from 1960 to 2025. This paper presents methods and results for several different approaches. The paper uses time-lag diagrams to show price transition periods as a feature of chaos theory established in other research. The paper also shows methods for using percentile rankings along different dimensions—for example, the years where the copper price increased the most. The paper also shows pathwise data analysis methods that use overlapping data samples to generate rankings about the data on a monthly basis, compared with an ensemble of values from all other paths in the dataset. For example, what did the all-time best five years in the copper markets look like based on the trailing-twelve-month price increase? The paper discusses how these methods can be used to make predictions and how the methods can be used for time series of other base metals, like zinc, or unrelated economic statistical time series. |
| Keywords: | Statistics, Time Series, Methods, Copper, Mining, Finance, World Bank, Exploratory Data Analysis, 1960-2025, Global |
| JEL: | A1 A19 B59 C0 C02 C1 C14 C15 C18 C19 C4 C40 C6 C63 C69 C8 C81 D2 G1 G10 G17 G19 K2 K23 L2 L5 L7 L72 Q3 Q31 Q32 Q33 Q5 Y1 Y10 |
| Date: | 2025–01–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127683 |
| By: | Guanie Lim (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan); Allan Nylander (Independent Analyst, Sweden) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the rise, struggle, and evolving trajectory of Chinese ownership in European football. The analysis is situated within broader debates on late development, outward foreign direct investment, and the political economy of global sport. Through comparative analysis, the paper distinguishes between less successful cases and more sustainable ones, highlighting the institutional, financial, and political constraints that shaped these divergent outcomes. It also discusses the likely fate of Chinese owners in an era of extreme financialization and specialization, in addition to suggesting implications for future studies. |
| Keywords: | Football, Foreign Direct Investment, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Economic Development, Europe, China |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ngi:dpaper:25-13 |
| By: | Bell, Peter |
| Abstract: | This article describes a quasi-experiment where a new CEO enters a mining exploration shell company called Seabridge Resources Inc., later called Seabridge Gold Inc. In 1998, Seabridge had a $12 million accumulated deficit and $1, 000 cash. In 1999, it had Mr. Rudi Fronk as Chairman, President, and CEO. Mr. Fronk is still CEO now, twenty-five years later, and the company has a $4 billion market capitalization. What were the principles of his leadership that helped drive the success of the company over the long term? It is possible to measure the impact of Rudi’s leadership on the company in several ways. As a simple example, we can calculate the statistics for the number of press releases before and after he became CEO. Or we can measure the performance over time as revealed by financial statements, as in Bell and Braun (2025). Instead, this article focuses on the narrative approach as revealed by the continuous disclosure record in his first year on the job. The results highlight key ingredients for success in terms of people, ideas, and things as described by Georges Doriot. |
| Keywords: | Mining, Gold, Inflation, Monetary, Business, Strategy, Canada, USA, Seabridge Gold, Grassy Mountain, KSM, Hog Ranch, Georges Doriot |
| JEL: | B5 C6 C8 C81 C9 D2 D7 E0 G1 G17 H1 H5 H54 K2 K23 L5 L7 L72 N5 O1 O13 O2 P1 Q3 Q32 Q33 Q5 Y1 |
| Date: | 2026–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127559 |
| By: | Sagiri Kitao; Kanato Nakakuni |
| Abstract: | Advanced economies have experienced a sharp decline in fertility and marriage rates over the past several decades, alongside rising educational attainment and substantial shifts in women’s time allocation. To investigate the forces behind these trends, we develop a quantitative general equilibrium model with endogenous marriage, fertility, educational investment, and women’s time use. The model incorporates factor-neutral, skill-biased, and gender-biased technological change, which jointly determine the wage structure and the trade-offs households face. Calibrating the model to Japan, we find that skill- and gender-biased technological change jointly account for about 30% of the decline in fertility between 1970 and 2020, with technologies favoring female labor supply explaining most of this effect. These forces operate through higher opportunity costs of childrearing and weaker incentives to marry. Counterfactual experiments show that ignoring the joint determination of education and time allocation leads to substantial misattribution of the drivers of fertility decline. Together, the results demonstrate that understanding long-run demographic change requires a unified framework that integrates these interconnected household decisions. |
| Keywords: | Fertility, Marriage, Home Production, Women’s Time Allocation, Skill-biased Technological Change, Gender-biased Technological Change, Japan. |
| JEL: | D10 E10 J10 O11 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_735 |
| By: | Maria Hasenstab |
| Abstract: | Thousands of public servants have worked in commitment to a strong and resilient economy at the St. Louis Fed's main building since it opened in 1925. |
| Date: | 2025–05–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00100:102764 |
| By: | Engelbert Stockhammer |
| Abstract: | Blecker and Setterfield’s outstanding Heterodox Macroeconomics book covers, as its subtitle suggests, a lot of ground on “models of demand, distribution and growth”, but issues of finance are largely absent. This is symptomatic of the state of heterodox macroeconomics, which has a developed common framework for the analysis of distribution and growth, but not for finance. The paper takes this as a starting point for some reflections on the role of finance in post-Keynesian (PK) and Marxist approaches. In PKE, financial factors play a constitutive role and determine the equilibrium values of key macroeconomic variables. Hyman Minsky’s work puts finance at the heart of PK business cycle theory. Marxist macroeconomics often treats finance as subordinate to real (productive) processes or not at all. We consider three episodes of how PK-Marxist debates played out: the Woytinsky-Hilferding debate of the 1930s, the debate on heterodox explanations of business cycles and the debate on financialisation. In these, the relation between PK and Marxism was confrontational, largely non-interactive and productive, respectively. The paper concludes that heterodox macroeconomics lacks an effective framework for a productive articulation of the different views on the role of finance. |
| Keywords: | finance, macroeconomics, post-Keynesian economics, Marxian economics |
| JEL: | B50 E60 G01 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2607 |
| By: | Greg Cancelada |
| Abstract: | FRASER is a trove of historical documents, so you may need a map to find your 'prize.' The collection's experienced librarians can help with your search. |
| Date: | 2024–07–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00100:102733 |
| By: | Akira Sasahara (Keio University) |
| Abstract: | This article provides an overview of the literature examining the effects of international trade on countries’ average income levels. It reviews the seminal study by Frankel and Romer (1999), which uses geography as an instrumental variable to identify the causal effects of trade on income in a cross-country setting. It also discusses studies by Felbermayr and Gröschl (2013), Feyrer (2019), and Feyrer (2021), which exploit time-varying geographic shocks–natural disasters, air transport, and a canal closure, respectively–to identify the causal effects of trade on income in panel data. Along the way, this article discusses key empirical challenges and the methodological advances developed to address them. It concludes that the widely accepted answer to the question “Does trade raise income levels?†is “Yes, †at least for the period from the 1950s to the 2000s. |
| Keywords: | International trade, income levels, empirical analysis |
| JEL: | F14 F43 O47 |
| Date: | 2025–02–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:dp2026-003 |
| By: | Maria Hasenstab |
| Abstract: | Calls for the U.S. to tie its currency to the price of gold still occur. What is the gold standard, and why does the U.S. no longer use it? |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00100:102734 |
| By: | Hazel Denother |
| Abstract: | The St. Louis Fed's Economy Museum opened in 2014. In honor of its 10th anniversary, we decided to find out more about the museum from its director's perspective. |
| Date: | 2024–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00100:102737 |
| By: | Cheang, Bryan; Mehrotra, Praharsh |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the limits of mission‐directed entrepreneurial states by drawing on the theory of recombinant innovation and F.A. Hayek's insights on the spontaneous growth of knowledge in society. First, the use of discretionary policymaking curtails the range of knowledge generated in the process of social interaction, limiting the scope for ideas to be fortuitously recombined. Second, by privileging a single overarching mission, the state may foster a social culture that encourages compliance with authority, limiting the epistemic curiosity in individuals necessary for creative innovation. We make this argument through a comparative historical analysis of Singapore and Hong Kong, which adopted divergent approaches to development. Despite rapid growth in both, the former's technocratic governance came at the expense of its creative sectors, while the latter's reliance on spontaneous solutions enabled strong creative industries to develop despite little state support. By using creative performance as a proxy for innovation‐led development, we exemplify the limits of top‐down governance. Rather than fostering creative destruction, the entrepreneurial state may end up being a creative destroyer. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2026–02–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137148 |
| By: | Heather Hennerich |
| Abstract: | Fed economist Stephanie Aaronson gave examples of research that has helped inform monetary policy in a keynote speech at the 2023 Women in Economics Symposium. |
| Date: | 2024–03–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00100:102723 |
| By: | William N. Goetzmann; Otto Manninen; James Tyler |
| Abstract: | We examine the historical frequency of stock market booms, crashes, and bubbles in the United States from 1792 to 2024 using aggregate market data and industry-level portfolios. We define a bubble as a large boom followed by a crash that reverses the market’s prior gains. Bubbles are extremely rare. We extend the industry-level analysis of Greenwood, Shleifer, and You (2019) through 2024 and replicate their findings out of sample using Cowles Commission industry data from 1871 to 1938. Booms do not reliably predict crashes, but they do predict higher subsequent volatility, increasing the likelihood of both large gains and large losses. |
| JEL: | G1 G10 G12 G4 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34903 |