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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | Chiaiese, Dario (University of Siena, Department of Economics); Missiaia, Anna (Unit for Economic History, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Sandgren, Fredrik (Uppsala University, Department of Economic History) |
| Abstract: | This paper reconstructs the occupational structure of 1720 Swedish pseudo-parishes between 1749 and 1855 using the data contained in Tabellverket, a unique collection of population and occupational records covering the country from the mid-eighteenth to the mid-nineteenth century. The original Tabellverket records are characterized by an unsystematic coverage in time and space and across occupational categories, changes in parish and pastorate boundaries, and missing observations that have so far inhibited its use at the parish level. We develop a procedure for transforming these records into a balanced panel data. The resulting dataset provides for the first time parish-level estimates of employment for 11 categories for the entire period 1749-1855 and 43 more detailed categories for the period 1805-1855 for both genders for 27 benchmarks, establishing a new empirical basis for studying long-run structural change in pre-industrial Sweden. |
| Keywords: | Occupational; structure; ·; Sweden; ·; Economic; history; ·; Historical; demography; ·; Parish-level; data |
| JEL: | C81 J21 N33 N93 |
| Date: | 2026–10–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunhis:0043 |
| By: | Cummins, Neil; Clark, Gregory |
| Abstract: | What happens across generations to wealth shocks? Do they endure and even magnify, or do they dissipate? By implication, how much modern wealth is attributable to events before 1900? This paper uses random shocks to family size in England before 1880 that created wealth shocks for the children to measure the persistence of wealth shocks. Fertility in England before 1880 was a biological lottery. For richer families, family size strongly influenced child wealth. This paper finds that such biology-induced wealth shocks had no impact on descendant wealth by three generations later. Since wealth itself persisted across more than five generations this implies that, in the long run, wealth mainly derives from sources other than inherited wealth. The observed link between nineteenth century and modern wealth does not lie in wealth transfers alone. Wealth persisted because of the familial inheritance of behaviors associated with wealth accumulation and retention. |
| Keywords: | inequality;inheritance;social mobility |
| JEL: | D31 J62 N13 N33 |
| Date: | 2026–10–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:141128 |
| By: | Liu, Kaiqi (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, Microeconomics & Public Economics); Rusch, Hannes (Microeconomics & Public Economics, RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research) |
| Abstract: | Slave-making and trading lastingly shaped global demographics. However, no quantitative studies of enslavement as a day-to-day business exist. We address this gap using a unique dataset coded from the surviving records kept by notorious slave raider Hamman Yaji (c. 1863–1929). Spanning fifteen years and over 300 events, the data reveal whom Yaji targeted, how he timed his raids, and how destructive they were. Panel regression analyses show how Yaji’s decisions were shaped by political, military, ecological, and economic constraints on profit maximization. Situated in colonial eastern Nigeria, our results provide unprecedented insight into the microeconomics of slave raiding |
| Keywords: | slavery, raiding, conflict, exploitation, Nigeria, Adamawa |
| JEL: | D74 J47 N47 |
| Date: | 2026–10–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umagsb:2026010 |
| By: | Tarek Alexander Hassan; Aakash Kalyani; Juan Cruz Lopez Del Valle |
| Abstract: | We study the role of foreign ideas in U.S. innovation by constructing a directed “genealogy” of technologies from the full text of 13 million patents filed between 1887 and 2024. By tracing which earlier technologies appear in the founding patents of new ones, we recover a large-scale input–output network of technological recombination that identifies the foreign technologies that serve as inputs into innovation in the United States. We report four main findings. First, foreign ideas are pervasive: 54% of U.S. technologies build on at least one foreign input, and the most fertile U.S. technologies rely on foreign inputs most heavily. Second, foreign ideas have large causal effects on U.S. innovation. Using the historical settlement of migrants as a source of exogenous variation in local ancestry, we show that U.S. counties more exposed to knowledge from a given foreign country absorb substantially more technologies from that country and, in turn, invent significantly more U.S. technologies building on them. Third, foreign ideas shape not only the level but also the direction of technical change: U.S. counties are far more likely to pioneer the specific technologies whose foreign inputs are already in their local idea stock, and the changing origins of foreign ideas accompany the shift of American innovation from its historical heartland toward the coasts. Fourth, these effects leave a lasting imprint on local labor markets: decades later, counties that absorbed more of an origin’s ideas host more jobs working with those ideas, and even more work with the U.S. technologies descended from them. |
| JEL: | F22 J15 O31 O33 O34 R12 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35900 |
| By: | Oded Galor; Luca Pensieroso; Daniel C. Wainstock |
| Abstract: | How could inequality between social classes have ever persisted during the Malthusian epoch, as affluence led to greater reproductive success, diluting inherited wealth and narrowing disparities over time? This paper uncovers the Paradox of Inequality, establishes its robust theoretical foundations, and provides its resolution. The analysis suggests that elites’ lavish, nonproductive displays of status inadvertently diverted resources from reproduction, limiting the dilution of inherited wealth and sustaining inequality across generations. Ironically, extravagance preserved the wealth it seemed to squander. |
| Keywords: | inequality, Malthusian epoch, conspicuous consumption, fertility, paradox |
| JEL: | O10 Z10 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13052 |
| By: | Masahiro Kubo; Shunsuke Tsuda |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the origins of Islamist insurgencies as a form of cultural revival in West Africa. Exploiting variation in access to ancient water sources, which have largely disappeared, as an instrument, we show that the decline of trans-Saharan cities—once-prosperous under pre-colonial Islamic states—led to contemporary hotspots of Islamist violence. Contemporary violence is concentrated not where colonial resistance by Islamic states was fiercest, but where overwhelming military asymmetries induced outward submission, a pattern supported by historical evidence on weapon access. This strategic adaptation allowed radical Islamism to survive defeat and per- sist as a latent legacy. Qualitative evidence suggests ideological transmission was sustained through a religious practice of internally preparing to reassert Islamic purity. This mechanism is further supported by a dynamic model of conflict and individual- level surveys examining extreme religious ideologies. Moreover, the concentration of Islamist violence in areas that experienced reversals of fortune mirrors a global pattern. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notnic:2026-17 |
| By: | Iorgulescu, Elissa-Ana-Maria; Kuntara Pukthuanthong; Quinn, William |
| Abstract: | We develop two long-run monthly proxies for inflation expectations in the United States: a market-based measure derived from commodity prices from 1877-2020, and a narrative intensity measure based on the text of all New York Times articles from 1870-2020. The market-based measure, despite having been influential in extant literature, is found to be largely unrelated to subsequent inflation. However, the narrative intensity measure is a strong and consistent predictor of future inflation. For the period of overlap with the Michigan Survey of Consumers, its correlation with survey-based inflation expectations is 0.74. We then use this measure to provide new evidence on debates surrounding historical inflations and deflations. Our most notable result is that, contrary to the current consensus, the deflation of 1930-33 became anticipated relatively early. An unsupervised article-level topic analysis over the 150-year sample documents a shift from inflation narratives based on commodities, currency, and market quotations to narratives based on energy, central banks, and monetary policy. Finally, we find that unexpectedly hawkish monetary policy predicts an increase in inflationary narrative intensity, but that this relationship is driven entirely by the element of monetary surprises that is a linear function of macroeconomic conditions. |
| Keywords: | Inflation Expectations, Inflation, Deflation, Economic Narratives, Economic History |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E52 N11 N12 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:344109 |
| By: | Sultan Mehmood; Rinchan Ali Mirza; Ekaterina Zhuravskaya |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how past ideological state-building constrains future reform. In Pakistan, General Zia’s regime (1977–1988) embedded religious identity into law, education, and political life. Two decades later, General Musharraf (1999–2008) sought to reverse course by pursuing a competing vision of national renewal. Leveraging a newly assembled district-level panel spanning half a century and an array of difference- in-differences strategies, we show that liberalizing reforms under Musharraf triggered a severe backlash in districts previously Islamized by Zia’s policies, reflected in heightened political violence and rising electoral support for Islamist parties. Evidence supports a mechanism In which Zia’s Islamization increased exposure to religious extremism among school-age cohorts. Relative to earlier cohorts, these cohorts were more likely to attend madrasas (religious seminaries) teaching more hard line religious doctrine. The districts that later display backlash also exhibit higher early marriage rates among girls, slower gains in female literacy, and greater Qur’an readership, consistent with a reorientation toward more conservative social and political preferences. These findings suggest that when states fuse Islamist ideology with governance, they create enduring constraints on future policy change. Past ideological investments can thus limit the effectiveness of later efforts at secularization or reform. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notnic:2026-16 |
| By: | Abhay Aneja; Guo Xu |
| Abstract: | States that delegate governance to local officials face a trade-off between the benefits of local knowledge and the costs of biased administrators. Can imposing federal standards discipline bias and improve uniformity? We study this question by examining the introduction of federal standards to apply for citizenship under the 1906 Naturalization Act. Using newly-digitized census records covering over five million immigrants and a 30-year period, we show that standardizing adjudication of citizenship applications resulted in rapid convergence of naturalization practices across cities. While naturalizations were around 30% higher in election years pre-reform, this electoral cycle disappeared after the introduction of federal standards. Exploiting the staggered adoption of municipal civil service reforms aimed at removing patronage during the Progressive Era, we find that the reduction in political cycles was strongest in unreformed cities. Finally, the contraction in election year naturalizations changed the composition of new citizens. Affected cohorts earned 7% more, were more likely to enter citizenship-restricted occupations, and gave children more Americanized names. Our results thus show that standardizing administrative procedures can discipline politically-biased policy implementation. |
| JEL: | H1 H7 J15 N41 N42 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35903 |
| By: | Armando Álvarez (Department of Economics, Trinity College, USA) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a simple and teachable shifting equilibrium model of Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis by integrating a benchmark post-Keynesian model of endogenous money with Minsky's own ideas of the introduction of money through credit, the profit-seeking behavior of the banking sector, and his classification of financial postures. The paper highlights how financial crises are intrinsically connected to economic decisions made under fundamental uncertainty that Minsky, following Keynes, considered inherent in capitalism. The model focuses on credit-financed investment decisions by non-financial firms and the corresponding lending by profit-seeking banks. The paper introduces a ratio of Ponzi-speculative to hedge units, which connects the macroeconomic outcome with the micro classification of individual firms according to Minsky's financial postures. |
| Keywords: | Endogenous money, financial instability, financial postures |
| JEL: | E12 E44 G01 G21 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:new:wpaper:2611 |
| By: | Max Deter (Kiel Institute for the World Economy); Kalle Kappner (LMU Munich, HU Berlin); Hans Lueders (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | Does repression silence dissent or push people to leave? We study the arrest of protesters during East Germany's Peaceful Revolution, using novel micro-data from Leipzig. Residents of streets and houses with an arrested protester were more likely to have left their address once the Berlin Wall fell, and exit visa applications rose in the months after an arrest. Nearby protest activity and support for the opposition show no visible decline after an arrest. Our results suggest that repression raised the demand for exit without a visible retreat of voice, and that residents acted on this demand once leaving became possible. |
| Keywords: | protest; repression; emigration; exit visas; east germany; autocratic breakdown; |
| JEL: | H10 N44 P20 |
| Date: | 2026–10–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:587 |
| By: | Thomas Drechsel; Dali Tsakadze |
| Abstract: | How leaders allocate their limited time and attention is an important question in economics. This paper constructs and analyzes a novel data set covering the daily calendars of three Federal Reserve Chairs, Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, and Jerome Powell, containing more than 20, 000 calendar entries. We document several patterns. First, all Fed Chairs spend more than 30% of their documented meetings with Fed staff, highlighting the crucial role of economists in the Fed's decision process. Second, interactions with the media became more frequent during Bernanke's tenure and remained important until the end of Powell's tenure. Third, Powell held significantly more meetings with lawmakers than both Yellen and Bernanke, reflecting an increasing need for the Fed to engage with political actors. Beyond these trend patterns, we examine the time allocation of Fed Chairs at business cycle frequencies and show how different activities respond to shifts in the macroeconomic environment. Finally, we place our findings in historical context using the available calendars of earlier Fed Chairs, including Alan Greenspan. |
| JEL: | D71 D72 E58 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35913 |
| By: | Francesco Leghissa |
| Abstract: | Italian monetary policy remained subordinated to public financing between the 1960s and the euro, deficits being routinely accommodated through monetary base creation. This paper asks whether that configuration amounted to a non-Ricardian regime in the sense of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level. Bivariate VARs, a structural-cyclical decomposition of the primary balance addressing the observational equivalence critique, and a three-variable variance decomposition all yield Ricardian-like dynamics. Yet the structural primary balance behaved as a near-autonomous process, satisfying the definition of active fiscal policy. I characterise this as a hybrid regime, latent fiscal dominance within a Ricardian outcome, sustained by the central bank’s dual role as fiscal accommodator and market coordinator. The 1981 divorce dismantled that architecture progressively rather than triggering a regime switch: fiscal contributions to monetary base variance fell from 93 to at most 48 per cent, a transition the Annual Reports show was completed only under Maastricht. |
| Keywords: | fiscal theory of the price level; fiscal dominance; Bank of Italy–Treasury divorce; monetary-fiscal interaction; VAR. |
| JEL: | E52 E62 E63 H63 N14 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp04302026 |
| By: | Jason Paul Bonham (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Ken R. Smith; Tim A. Bruckner |
| Abstract: | Background: Studies of polygamy in Saharan and sub-Saharan populations report negative offspring outcomes, including infant mortality. These results are often owed to strained resources in larger households and negative gender dynamics. Objective: We describe the relation between infant mortality and polygamy in Utah. This population is characterized by fathers with substantial resources coupled with mothers who generally supported the practice. Methods: Utilizing the Utah Population Database, based on historic genealogical records, we describe the difference of infant mortality risk between polygamous and monogamous mothers’ offspring using Cox proportional hazards modeling. These children were born in Utah between 1852 and 1920 (N=573, 095). Results: Earlier cohorts of offspring of polygamous mothers have a 22% greater risk of mortality within the first year of life compared to their monogamous counterparts. This mortality penalty declines in later cohorts. Conclusions: Researchers should consider other factors that may have changed over time in this population to expand on the mechanisms that underlie this finding. These may include sexual selection, external political pressures, or high-parity clustering during periods of declining fertility. Contributions: Our findings contribute to research concerning polygamous offspring effects, infant mortality, reproductive fitness, and reproductive aging effects. |
| Keywords: | America, historical demography, infant mortality, polygamy, polygyny |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2026-044 |
| By: | Björn Brey; Karolina Hutkova; Lidia Smitkova |
| Abstract: | Non-fatal strangulation (NFS) is a form of intimate partner violence (IPV) and a strong predictor of intimate partner homicide (IPH). We compile NFS statute data, link them to homicide reports, 1990–2019, and estimate effects on IPH using a two-stage difference-in-differences estimator for staggered adoption and heterogeneous effects. NFS laws reduce IPH for ages 18–49, by 0.169 female-victim homicides per 100, 000 women and 0.090 male-victim homicides per 100, 000 men. We find no effects on IPH for ages 50–70 or on stranger-perpetrated homicides. Evidence from reported IPV incidents is suggestive of changes in reported incident classification and arrest patterns. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notnic:2026-04 |
| By: | Michael Andrews; Ryan Hill; Joseph Price; Riley Wilson |
| Abstract: | We study how childhood neighbors influence occupational choices and later-life earnings. Using linked census records for over 10 million children and historic census sheet microgeography, we find that growing up next door to someone in a given occupation increases the probability of being in that occupation as an adult by 10 percent relative to other children on the same street. The transmission effect is higher with more intense exposure, more connected neighborhoods, and between more similar families. Exposure to high-income or highly educated neighbors has lasting economic effects, leading to significant gains in adult income and education. |
| Keywords: | neighborhood networks, peer effects, occupational transmission |
| JEL: | J24 J62 N32 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13051 |
| By: | Alberto Chong (Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University and Department of Economics, Universidad del Pacifico, Peru) |
| Abstract: | A large literature treats political and economic institutions as jointly determined, implying that a shock that removes constraints on the executive should weaken both. I test this transmission hypothesis using data for 95 countries from 1950 to 2024. Using complementary causal quasi-experimental designs, I find that coups sharply deteriorate political, legal, and administrative institutions and increase corruption. Against these large responses, however, property rights change little. This is not evidence of inertness: the same property-rights index rises by 0.45 standard deviations following a democratic transition. Coups also move property rights within countries, increasing absolute deviations from pre-coup levels without a common direction. The evidence therefore points to asymmetric institutional adjustment: political constraints can collapse sharply while broad measured property-rights protection remains comparatively persistent. |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper2632 |
| By: | Scott A. Wolla |
| Abstract: | About half of U.S. college students in their first economics course never take another one. A literacy-targeted approach focuses on making sure they understand core concepts well. |
| Keywords: | economic education |
| Date: | 2026–10–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00100:103951 |
| By: | Spyridon Bouzoukis |
| Abstract: | After Konstantinos Karamanlis rose to power in February 1956, he sought to strengthen Greece’s relations with the Arab world, sending Grigorios Kassimatis to Egypt, Syria and Lebanon in March. This article readdresses the factors that led to this ‘opening’ to the Arabs. It is argued that, besides the need to secure support over the Cyprus question in the United Nations, protect the Greek communities, and safeguard the status of the Greek-Orthodox Patriarchates of the East, Athens’ decision to develop relations with the Arabs also stemmed from the need to balance Turkey’s strengthened regional position within the British-led Baghdad Pact since February 1955. Based on several primary sources, including the archives of the Greek Foreign Ministry, this analysis enriches our understanding of Greek Middle Eastern policy and the importance of the wider regional balance to the security of Greek national interests in the Eastern Mediterranean. |
| Keywords: | Greece, Turkey, Cyprus question, Baghdad Pact, Middle East |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hel:greese:224 |
| By: | Michelle W. Bowman |
| Date: | 2026–10–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgsq:103938 |