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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | Sascha O. Becker |
| Abstract: | This chapter explores the intersection of religion and economics on the 250th anniversary of Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations, first published in 1776. While Smith is often viewed as a secular figure in economics, his work was deeply influenced by the moral philosophy of his time, which was shaped by Christian thought. I discuss how economists think about the religious themes in Smith’s work in the 21st century and review what we know today about the connection between religion and economic outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Adam Smith; religion |
| JEL: | B1 B2 N3 N9 P5 Z12 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auu:hpaper:136 |
| By: | Pablo Castro (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Henry Willebald (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía) |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies agricultural performance in Latin America in the early 20th century, complementing previous qualitative studies with a comparative and historical perspective. The analysis covers ten countries –Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Cuba, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela– during the years preceding World War I. We identify three broad agrarian paths. Argentina and Uruguay featured extensive, high-productivity, export-oriented systems that promoted broader economic development. Chile, Cuba, and Nicaragua exhibited more intensive but labour-demanding systems, with moderate productivity and uneven technological progress. Venezuela, Mexico, Colombia, Brazil, and Peru maintained low-productivity, traditional agriculture with limited potential for economic growth. These contrasting structures highlight the diversity of Latin American agrarian capitalism and help explain the uneven capacity of national economies to initiate structural transformation. Overall, differences in factor endowments played a decisive role in shaping productivity patterns, with land-abundant regions favouring labour-saving technologies. |
| Keywords: | agriculture, land productivity, labor productivity, Latin America |
| JEL: | N56 Q11 Q16 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-26-25 |
| By: | Bindseil, Ulrich; Gulati, Mitu |
| Abstract: | Once a famous tale of conquest, law and foreign bond markets, the saga of the Silesian Bonds of 1734-37 is missing from the literature on sovereign debt. The Silesian Bonds were among the earliest foreign currency sovereign bonds issued. They go into the market 84 years prior to the 1818 Prussian issue by the Rothschilds sometimes described as the first Eurobond. The bonds were issued by Charles VI, Holy Roman Emperor of the House of Habsburg, to investors in London and Amsterdam. They were tradable, denominated in foreign currency, and secured by a pledge of revenues from the estates of Silesia. Although bondholders seemed well-protected by a variety of covenants promising that the sovereign would refrain from raising defenses, there was reluctance to pay, delay, and ultimately partial repudiation. The story we tell centers around what happened to the debts after Frederick II of Prussia seized much of Silesia in 1740-42, agreed in the 1742 Peace of Berlin to take over from Austria the liability of the Silesian bonds, but then decided that he did not wish to pay. From the story, we draw clues about the state of international law, contracting practices, and the operation of the sovereign debt market in the mid 18th and early 19th centuries in Europe. |
| Keywords: | International Capital Markets, Evolution of Capital Markets, Sovereign Default, Repudiation, Austrian War of Succession |
| JEL: | N23 F34 K12 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ibfpps:339649 |
| By: | Balazs Egert |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the contributions of the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economics laureates, Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt, to our understanding of innovation-driven economic growth, situating their work within the broader evolution of modern growth theory and empirical evidence. It highlights why the Industrial Revolution marked a transition to sustained, self-reinforcing technological progress and shows how Mokyr's emphasis on knowledge, culture and institutions complements Aghion and Howitt's Schumpeterian framework, which formalises innovation as a competitive process of firm entry, exit and technological replacement. The paper then uses these frameworks to interpret the widespread productivity slowdown observed in advanced OECD economies since the mid-2000s, arguing that weakened creative destruction, slower diffusion of frontier technologies, declining business dynamism and policy headwinds are key explanatory factors. |
| Keywords: | innovation, productivity, economic growth, creative destruction, institutions |
| JEL: | O30 O40 O43 L16 N10 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12572 |
| By: | Stéphane Benveniste (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, AMU - Aix Marseille Université) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the overrepresentation of students with aristocratic ancestry in elite higher education. It relies on a sample of 269, 917 students from ten leading French grandes écoles between 1911 and 2015 and uses surname‑based indicators of nobility. Individuals with aristocratic ancestry are between six and nine times more likely to enrol in one of these ten grandes écoles than the rest of the population, compared to eleven to fifteen times a century ago. While historically concentrated at Sciences Po Paris, their presence has become more evenly distributed across top‑tier institutions, with business schools now showing the highest levels of overrepresentation. The analysis also shows that noble men are more overrepresented than noble women in these top‑tier institutions, although this gap has narrowed. These results underscore that beyond the abolition of legal privileges, historical hierarchies persist. Future research could distinguish the extent to which this persistence may reflect the transmission of social, educational, cultural, or economic capital. |
| Abstract: | Cet article quantifie la surreprésentation des étudiants d'origine aristocratique dans les grandes écoles les plus prestigieuses. Il s'appuie sur un échantillon de 269 917 étudiants de dix grandes écoles entre 1911 et 2015 et mobilise des indicateurs d'ascendance aristocratique fondés sur le nom de famille. Les individus d'ascendance noble ont, sur la période récente, entre six et neuf fois plus de chances d'intégrer l'une de ces dix grandes écoles que le reste de la population, contre onze à quinze fois au début du XX è siècle. Alors qu'ils étaient historiquement concentrés à Sciences Po Paris, leur présence est désormais plus uniformément répartie entre les établissements les plus prestigieux, les écoles de commerce affichant les niveaux de surreprésentation les plus élevés. Les hommes d'ascendance noble sont par ailleurs davantage surreprésentés que les femmes dans ces grandes écoles, même si l'écart s'est réduit. Ces résultats montrent qu'au-delà de l'abolition de privilèges juridiques, des hiérarchies historiques peuvent persister. Des recherches futures pourraient contribuer à distinguer ce qui, dans cette persistance, relève notamment de la transmission d'un capital social, scolaire, culturel ou encore économique. |
| Keywords: | higher education, nobility and aristocracy, history of inequality, enseignement supérieur prestigieux, grandes écoles, noblesse et aristocratie, histoire des inégalités elite |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-05567573 |
| By: | Pablo Castro (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Henry Willebald (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía) |
| Abstract: | This article presents a long-run estimate of total factor productivity (TFP) in Uruguayan agriculture for the period 1870–2016. Drawing on a growth accounting framework and the construction of a new historical dataset, it provides homogeneous and consistent estimates of TFP for the agricultural sector as a whole and for its main subsectors: crops and livestock. The analysis situates productivity dynamics within the broader trajectory of national development, highlighting the interaction between technological change, institutional arrangements, and international integration. The findings identify three interrelated long-term patterns: cycles of modernization associated with waves of technological adoption and external integration; prolonged episodes of adaptive stagnation, during which growth relied primarily on the extensive use of natural resources; and alternating sectoral divergence between crops and livestock, linked to differentiated technological and institutional regimes. Overall, agricultural TFP grew at an average annual rate lower than 1% between 1870 and 2016, reflecting a discontinuous path of innovation rather than a linear process of progress. Efficiency gains materialized when institutions, policies, and markets were coherently aligned, and stalled when such conditions weakened. By combining long-run TFP measurement with historical interpretation, the paper contributes to a deeper understanding of the structural determinants of agricultural productivity and of the role of the agricultural sector in Uruguay’s economic development. |
| Keywords: | TFP, agriculture, inputs, Uruguay |
| JEL: | N56 O13 O33 O47 Q16 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-04-26 |
| By: | Torun Dewan (Department of Government, London School of Economics and Political Science); Christopher Kam (Department of Political Science, University of British Columbia); Jaakko Meriläinen (Department of Economics, Stockholm School of Economics); Janne Tukiainen (Department of Economics, University of Turku) |
| Abstract: | To what extent did class shape political behavior during early democratization and industrialization, and did class voting reflect economic interests or durable political identities? We use newly collected individual-level panel data from open-ballot elections in the nineteenth-century England—around 130, 000 recorded vote choices linked to voters’ occupations across elections—to provide evidence on the class-basis of voting. Voting was strongly structured by occupation: skilled workers and the petite bourgeoisie disproportionately supported Liberals and their free-trade agenda, while the gentry, farm workers, and unskilled workers leaned Conservative. Exploiting within-voter mobility, we show that these alignments reflected durable political identities rather than contemporaneous economic interests: Although socially mobile voters resemble their destination class in cross-sectional comparisons, within-voter estimates show that individuals did not systematically change their vote choice when their class changed. Class-based political alignments were thus behaviorally durable at the individual level, even though the Industrial Revolution profoundly transformed society. |
| Keywords: | Class-based voting, economic voting, poll books, socialization, social mobility, voting behavior |
| JEL: | D72 N33 N93 P00 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tkk:dpaper:dp179 |
| By: | Diogo Baerlocher (Department of Economics, University of South Florida); Renata Caldas (Department of Economics, University of South Florida); Francisco Cavalcanti (Department of Economics, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco) |
| Abstract: | Racial identity is not solely a matter of physical appearance but is also shaped by social and historical context. Using data on over 500, 000 candidates for local office in Brazil’s 2020 elections, we study how self-reported race - specifically, identification as white - relates to phenotypic appearance, socioeconomic characteristics, and local social perceptions. We use machine learning to extract appearance-based probabilities of racial classification from candidate photographs and show that these probabilities explain a significant share of variation in self-reported race. Socioeconomic factors such as education, gender, and wealth also influence racial identification, though their effects diminish among individuals whose appearance more clearly aligns with the white category. Municipality fixed effects, which we interpret as capturing local social perception bias, vary systematically across regions and are strongly associated with historical slave population shares. We further show that areas with state-sponsored European settlements - often associated with more inclusive institutions - exhibit lower rates of white self-identification, contrasting with the positive association between slavery intensity and white identification. Our findings highlight the enduring role of social and historical forces in shaping racial classification and suggest that racial inequality cannot be fully understood without accounting for the social construction of race. |
| Keywords: | Racial Classification, Social Identity, Phenotypic Appearance, Historical Legacy |
| JEL: | J15 N36 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usf:wpaper:2026-01 |
| By: | Brunella Bruno and Immacolata Marino |
| Abstract: | The People’s Party is the only major populist movement in American history that was quickly reabsorbed by mainstream parties. We study the main trigger of its rise— technological disruption from railroad expansion—and discuss its dissolution in light of the conceptual framework we develop and test empirically. We construct a novel county-level measure of Technological Disruption Exposure (TDE) that captures the change in competitive pressure each county faced from all other counties, driven by railroad-induced reductions in transportation costs between 1870 and 1890. TDE positively predicts People’s Party vote share in the 1894 congressional elections: a one standard deviation increase raises Populist support by nearly 3 percentage points. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the effect is concentrated in counties with high crop specialization—where competitive vulnerability translates into concentrated losses. A commitment-politics framework organizes these patterns: railroads reduced the probability of being a market winner in high-TDE counties, where voters shifted from discretionary to commitment politicians. The 1890s episode is uniquely informative because, unlike today, there was fiscal and institutional room to rebuild trust: mainstream parties credibly adopted Populist demands, and the movement dissolved. Today those conditions do not hold—which may explain why modern populism has proven more persistent. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp26269 |
| By: | Dezhbakhsh, Hashem; Levy, Daniel |
| Abstract: | It is well established that the U.S. prewar output was more volatile and less shock persistent than the postwar output. This is often attributed to the data interpolation employed to construct the prewar series. Our analytical results, however, indicate that commonly used linear interpolation has the opposite effect on shock persistence and volatility of a series—it increases shock persistence and reduces volatility. The surprising implication of this finding is that the actual differences between the volatility and shock persistence of the prewar and postwar output series are likely greater than the existing literature recognizes, and interpolation has dampened rather than magnified this difference. Consequently, the view that postwar output was more stable than prewar output because of the effectiveness of the postwar stabilization policies and institutional changes has considerable merit. Our results hold for parsimonious stationary and nonstationary time series commonly used to model macroeconomic time series. |
| Keywords: | Business Cycles; Output Volatility; Shock Persistence; Prewar and Postwar US Time Series; Linear Interpolation; Variance Ratio; Stationary Series; Nonstationary Series; Periodic Non-stationarity; Missing Observations; Macroeconomic Stabilization; Economic Policy |
| JEL: | C02 C18 C22 C82 E01 E32 N10 |
| Date: | 2026–02–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128031 |
| By: | Frank Simmen; Bernd Süssmuth |
| Abstract: | We show that particulate matter pollution is lower in advanced economies where political parties favor homeownership. We rationalize this with a simple model featuring a polluting industry and owner-occupiers who push to restrict undesirable land uses. Pollution declines when homeowners have enough political power to enforce their preferences. We test this using data from German planning regions (2002–2014). Exploiting World War II area bombing as an instrument for homeownership - via its long-run effects on tenure patterns - we provide evidence suggesting a causal link between higher homeownership rates and lower air pollution. |
| Keywords: | homeownership, pollution, particulate matter, not-in-my-backyard |
| JEL: | Q53 R53 R38 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12581 |
| By: | Ilyana Kuziemko; Donato A. Onorato; Suresh Naidu |
| Abstract: | We argue that the Cold War contributed to the inclusive growth of the post-war decades. On the labor-demand side, we isolate exogenous shifts in military procurement across states and firms. We show that military procurement increases manufacturing employment and reduces inequality. Overall, the 1950s-to-1990s decline in defense production explains roughly one-quarter of the decline in manufacturing employment and nearly one-tenth of the rise of top-ten income share. On the labor-supply side, the Cold-War-era draft removed millions of young men from the labor force, significantly reducing young male civilian unemployment. Military procurement also increased voter support for hawkish foreign policy. |
| JEL: | J01 N42 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35008 |
| By: | Ronan Lyons (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin); Allison Shertzer (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia); Rowena Gray (UC Merced) |
| Abstract: | The Rent of Primary Residence (RoPR) series constructed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) implies that nominal rental prices increased by just 2.6% per year from 1914 to 2006 while overall prices grew by 3.3%. We show that this 'falling real rents' puzzle can be explained by the evolving treatment of shelter in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). In this paper we construct a new, methodologically consistent shelter price series using the Historical Housing Prices (HHP) Project rental index. We also construct a revised set of shelter weights going back to 1914 and combine them with the price series to create an alternate CPI that applies the owners' equivalent rent (OER) concept of shelter consistently across time. The HHP shelter price series increases by a factor of 28.4 (compared with the 10.7 increase in RoPR) and lifts average CPI growth from 3.3% to 3.6% per year. The revised series eliminates the long‐run decline in real rents in the CPI and provides a new benchmark for assessing trends in the cost of living and real income in the U.S. over the twentieth century. |
| Keywords: | Housing prices; rental indices; CPI; housing markets; cost of living |
| JEL: | E31 R3 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep0526 |
| By: | Susan Helper; Resem Makan; Daniel W. Shoag |
| Abstract: | We study the establishment of U.S. National Laboratories in the 1940s–1950s to estimate local spillovers from public research infrastructure. This setting allows us to causally identify such spillovers, for two reasons: 1) Lab sites were chosen largely for security and political reasons, rather than existing or potential innovative capability and 2) We identify runner-up locations using archival sources. We find several types of knowledge spillovers: Compared to control counties, Lab counties experience large and persistent increases in patenting by non-lab inventors; non-lab patents in the same county shift toward laboratories’ research fields and cite laboratory patents more frequently. Using newly digitized county data from 1936–1970, we find sustained increases in retail sales and household income. Linked 1940–1950 Census records show wage gains for pre-existing residents who remain in lab counties, with larger effects for college-educated workers. We find that cohorts exposed to laboratory establishment during school-age years attained more education, consistent with a human-capital channel. Spillovers arise despite extensive secrecy around early nuclear research, suggesting that co-location with public R&D can generate sizable local benefits even under restricted information flows. |
| JEL: | O31 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35011 |
| By: | Peter J. Dolton; Richard S. J. Tol |
| Abstract: | The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics has been awarded annually since 1969. Who wins the prize is a topic of much interest and tracks the whole course of the academic discipline over the last 57 years. Explaining who wins the prize in any given year is a complex process, which involves the subtle endogeneity of the choice of the field and the individual(s) who should be honoured. Citations, track records, networks of past winners, institutional factors along with field rotation and Economic Prize Committee composition may all play a role. A dynamic sample involving a changing stock of would-be candidates along with a moving flow -- both into and out of the sample -- add complexities to the modelling. We find robust evidence that the Nobel Prize rotates in a semi-regular way between the fields of economics. Earlier awards were for a single paper, later ones for a body of work. Networks do not matter, but having a Nobel student or co-author does. There is some evidence that the personal preferences of Committee members had an effect on either field or individual winner. The Committee's decisions changed after Lindbeck retired. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.20767 |
| By: | David H. Autor; Caroline Chin; Anna Salomons; Bryan Seegmiller |
| Abstract: | We study the role of expertise in new work - novel occupational roles that emerge as technological and economic conditions evolve - using newly available 1940 and 1950 Census Complete Count files and confidential American Community Survey data from 2011-2023. We show that new work is systematically distinct from simply more work in existing occupations in four respects. First, it attracts workers with distinct characteristics: new work is disproportionately performed by younger and more educated workers, even within detailed occupation-industry cells. Second, new work commands economically significant wage premiums that persist beyond workers' initial entry into new work, consistent with returns to scarce, specialized expertise rather than temporary market disequilibrium. Third, these premiums decline across vintages as expertise diffuses, with `newer' new work commanding larger premiums than older new work. Fourth, the emergence of new work can be traced to specific demand shocks in particular locations and time periods, suggesting that expertise formation responds systematically to economic opportunities. These findings suggest that new work serves as a countervailing force to automation-driven job displacement not merely by creating additional employment, but also by generating new domains of human expertise that command market premiums. This expertise-based mechanism helps explain both the expanding variety of work activities across decades and the historical resilience of the labor share. |
| Keywords: | new work, technological change, occupations, tasks |
| JEL: | E24 J11 J23 J24 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12577 |
| By: | Heinze, Thomas (University of Wuppertal); Achermann, Dania; Dardashti, Radin; Krömer, Ralf; Leuschner, Anna; Morel, Thomas; Overkamp, Anne Sophie; Remmert, Volker; Schiemann, Gregor; Sieben, Anna |
| Abstract: | The DFG Research Training Group 2696 “Transformations of Science and Technology since 1800: Topics, Processes, Institutions” (RTG 2696) at the University of Wuppertal investigates how scientific knowledge and technological capabilities change over time without reducing modes of change to either path dependency or revolutions. Instead, it focuses on transformations as being multidimensional and often gradual-cumulative, while recognizing critical junctures. The program’s shared framework employs varieties of institutionalist approaches (such as Historical Institutionalism, Sociological Institu-tionalism) across three interacting dimensions: topics (theories, concepts, tacit knowledge), processes (experimental, communicative, application-oriented practices), and institutions (universities, laboratories, education systems, infrastructures). Substantively, the RTG addresses field formation and disciplinary change; shifts in epistemic practices; material and technical infrastructures; and narratives of the new and the old, using state-of-the-art methods grounded in history, sociology, and philosophy. These include comparative-historical case studies; qualitative and quantitative methods of empirical social research; conceptual analysis; as well as argumentative reconstruction. Interim results comprise completed dissertations on high-energy physics, medical skills labs, observational standards, and the classification of personality disorders, as well as ongoing projects on the development of academic disciplines (such as mathematics, psychology, economics, and biology), university funding and stratification, space tech-nology, technological persistence, and gendered historiography. Together, these studies aim to test and refine the RTG’s shared vocabulary, enabling synthesis and comparison in the study of transformations (glossary). |
| Date: | 2026–03–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:9sg34_v1 |
| By: | Şentürk, Recep; Aysan, Fatma Nur; Aysan, Ahmet Faruk; Özalkan, Seda |
| Abstract: | This article proposes a novel moral synthesis between Adam Smith’s Enlightenment conception of the impartial spectator and the Abrahamic concept of Ādamiyyah. It argues that while Smith’s theory offers a robust model of internal moral regulation, its reliance on socially constructed norms leaves it vulnerable to moral relativism and cultural fragmentation. In contrast, Ādamiyyah, rooted in Qur’anic anthropology, provides a fixed ontological foundation for human dignity, affirming rights and duties by virtue of being human. Through a comparative philosophical methodology, this paper demonstrates that Ādamiyyah can validate self-regard as sacred and universal, while also anchoring the impartial spectator in a transcendent framework of accountability. Ibn Khaldūn’s notion of wāziʿ min anfusihim, the internal restraining power, offers an applied articulation of this synthesis. It mirrors Smith’s impartial spectator as a mechanism of self-regulation, yet grounds it in the Adamic dignity of Ādamiyyah, where moral restraint links the self to both divine accountability and social order. The article further employs the metaphor of the fixed-point theorem from mathematics to conceptualize Ādamiyyah as an invariant moral constant, stabilizing ethical reasoning across cultural and technological transformations. By addressing both individual moral formation and institutional justice, this framework resolves the micro–macro divide in ethics. The paper concludes by proposing that this integration contributes to the emerging discourse on “Rooted Futures, ” a call to design inclusive, ethically grounded futures by drawing on the enduring insights of classical moral traditions, and to renew the Adamic covenant of human dignity that signifies the primordial moral bond between humanity and God vertically, and among human beings horizontally. Reclaiming this covenant not only restores a global moral order grounded in justice, equality, and the inviolability of every person, but also provides the impartial spectator with the transcendent moral anchor it lacked, thereby closing the gap between self-regard and universal moral responsibility. |
| Keywords: | Ādamiyyah; Impartial Spectator; Self-Love; Adam Smith; Moral Psychology; Islamic Ethics; Comparative Ethics; Ibn Khaldun; Fixed-point theorem. |
| JEL: | A13 B12 D63 P16 Z12 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128309 |
| By: | Alexandre Truc (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Date: | 2025–02–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05543096 |
| By: | Antonio Paradiso (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice); Claudio Sardoni (Sapienza University of Rome); Andrea Teglio (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice) |
| Abstract: | This article develops a discrete-time model of economic growth inspired by classical thought, which unifies within a single formal framework the fundamental insights of Adam Smith, David Ricardo, and Thomas Robert Malthus. On the analytical level, the model allows for: (i) deriving a compact relationship between the output growth rate and the effective net profit rate, as well as an economic relevance condition that precludes degenerate trajectories; (ii) characterizing the distribution of income between profits and rents as a function of technological parameters (labor productivity, land–labor ratio, unit rent), highlighting the role of the reinvested profit share; (iii) specifying three variants—Smithian, Ricardian, and Malthusian— obtained solely by modifying the rule governing labor productivity formation and/or population dynamics. The model provides a unified formal framework to represent and compare the three main classical perspectives on growth, elucidating the connection between intertemporal dynamics and income distribution through a tool suitable for both theoretical analysis and numerical simulation. |
| Keywords: | Classical economic growth; Growth regimes; Structural change; Nonlinear dynamics; Malthusian trap |
| JEL: | B12 N13 O11 O41 C62 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2026:12 |
| By: | Antoine Camous; Eric Monnet; Damien Puy |
| Abstract: | A new 70-year dataset of world macroeconomic cycles reveals that the growing synchronisation of world economies mainly concerns asset prices. In contrast, the global synchronisation of variables such as GDP and credit remains low. Indeed, this “decoupling” has widened since the global financial crisis. We draw lessons from this for the conduct of public policies. <p> Une nouvelle base de données macroéconomiques internationales sur 70 ans permet d’établir que la synchronisation croissante des économies mondiales concerne surtout les prix des actifs. Des variables telles que PIB et crédit restent faiblement synchronisées au niveau mondial. Ce "découplage" s’est même accentué après la crise financière mondiale. Nous en tirons des enseignements pour la conduite des politiques publiques. |
| Date: | 2026–03–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:econot:437 |
| By: | Pierre-Guillaume Méon |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/405214 |
| By: | Roberto Perli |
| Abstract: | Remarks before the Money Marketeers of New York University, New York City. |
| Keywords: | money market conditions; ample reserves; Reserve management; Balance sheet management; SOMA portfolio; monetary policy |
| Date: | 2026–03–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsp:102952 |
| By: | Thomas Le Roux (CRH (UMR 8558 CNRS / EHESS) - Centre de Recherches Historiques (CRH) _ Unité Mixte de Recherches (UMR 8558 CNRS / EHESS) - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Durant la première moitié du xix e siècle, les métropoles sont alimentées en lait par un maillage d'étables au cœur de la ville : les vacheries. La présence de milliers de vaches s'explique par la nécessité de fournir les marchés d'un produit rapidement périssable. C'est à Paris que la densité est la plus forte en Europe, ce qui requiert l'action d'une police sanitaire pour veiller à la qualité du lait, à la réduction des nuisances de ces établissements, enfin à la bonne organisation des flux de matières nécessaires à la nourriture des bêtes et à l'évacuation des fumiers. En charge de cette police, le Conseil de salubrité, et en son sein le vétérinaire Jean-Baptiste Huzard, adoptent une régulation plutôt accommodante pour ces « fabriques de lait », l'important étant d'assurer l'approvisionnement alimentaire des Parisiens. Ainsi, si le nombre de vacheries diminue au cœur de Paris dans les années 1820, cela est davantage lié aux mutations de la commercialisation du lait plutôt qu'à la vigueur de la police sanitaire. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05542722 |
| By: | Valentino Larcinese; Alberto Parmigiani |
| Abstract: | Does higher income inequality increase political inequality by raising the political influence of rich donors? We attempt to answer this question by providing evidence of the effects of a policy-induced rise in income inequality on the concentration of campaign contributions in the US. Using a novel dataset at the Census tract level we show that the 1986 Tax Reform Act, which disproportionately benefited wealthy taxpayers, caused a spike in individual contributions, predominantly from donors at the top of the income distribution. The effect was similar for both parties and unrelated to the recipients' ideology or office sought. For members of Congress, the effect was larger for legislators that voted in favour of the tax bill and for candidates likely to be well-connected or from privileged backgrounds. We also find that an increase in disposable income is more likely to induce political donations when the donor and the recipient share a similar social background. Taken together, our results suggest that the effects of tax policy extend beyond the economic domain, with implications for the distribution of political influence through campaign contributions. |
| Keywords: | income inequality, political inequality, political influence, taxation, campaign finance |
| JEL: | D72 H24 D31 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12574 |
| By: | Sebastian Edwards |
| Abstract: | This paper examines Cybersyn — Chile's cybernetic coordination system under Salvador Allende — during the October 1972 national truckers' strike, which cut aggregate industrial output by roughly 9 percent. Using monthly data for twenty sectors and a calibrated CES–Leontief model, I construct sector-specific counterfactuals for the trucking shock. The four government-designated priority sectors outperform their structural predictions by an average of 17 index points; the priority–non-priority differential sits at the 90th percentile of a permutation null distribution (p = 0.100). Mitigation was selective: concentrated in sectors with state-enterprise ownership, simple supply chains, and military distribution support. Where coordination needs were greatest — food and beverages — priority designation provided no measurable protection. Cybersyn was more effective at protecting the sectors it was easiest to protect than those that most needed protecting: a partial vindication and a realistic assessment of its limits. |
| JEL: | N16 N52 N76 P26 P31 R41 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35002 |
| By: | Heine, Michael; Herr, Hansjörg |
| Abstract: | John Maynard Keynes clearly recognized the inherent crisis-proneness of capitalist economies and that, for the most part, they did not represent a meritocracy. The lion's share of non-labour income in the form of interest, dividends, or profit distributions is pocketed by households that do not contribute to any entrepreneurial activity. According to Keynes' idea, large corporations should be socialized to control investment. To guarantee sufficient consumer demand, a relatively equal distribution of income and wealth, as well as the elimination of income that is not backed by any performance in the form of work or entrepreneurial activity, is needed. Public utilities such as water supply and local public transportation should remain under the ownership of local authorities. Keynes saw balanced trade and current accounts as an element of fair globalization. International capital flows should be largely controlled. He provided important elements of an ecological transformation and the macroeconomic management of an ecologically and socially sustainable economy. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:gluwps:339601 |
| By: | Alexandre Truc (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Abstract: | Disciplinary mobility occurs when researchers publish outside their disciplines of origin. It is an important mechanism of interdisciplinarity and knowledge transfer. Behavioral economics (BE) was founded by two psychologists, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, who used disciplinary mobility to influence economics. In this article, we study the disciplinary mobility of eight core behavioral economists to better understand how it has influenced the early development of BE and the interdisciplinary practices of later behavioral economists. Besides the movement of psychologists toward the core of economics, we identify an outward movement of economists away from the discipline. This movement away from economics has allowed some behavioral economists to escape some of the normative traditions of economics while establishing new forms of scientific legitimacy for economists. This has enabled them to push the frontiers of economics and promote a more radical approach to BE at the cost of an increasingly weaker relationship with the core concerns of economics. |
| Abstract: | La mobilité disciplinaire est le fait de publier hors de sa discipline d'origine. Il s'agit d'un mécanisme important d'interdisciplinarité et de transfert de connaissances. L'économie comportementale (EC) a été créée par deux psychologues, Daniel Kahneman et Amos Tversky, qui ont utilisé la mobilité disciplinaire pour influencer l'économie. Dans cet article, nous étudions la mobilité disciplinaire de huit économistes comportementaux afin de mieux comprendre comment cette mobilité a influencé le développement et les pratiques interdisciplinaires de l'EC. Outre le mouvement des psychologues vers le cœur de l'économie, nous identifions aussi un mouvement de certains économistes vers d'autres disciplines. Ce mouvement d'éloignement a permis à certains économistes comportementaux de trouver de nouvelles sources de légitimité scientifique dans d'autres disciplines, tout en échappant à certaines traditions normatives de l'économie. Cela leur a permis de repousser les frontières de l'économie et de promouvoir une approche plus radicale de l'EC au prix d'une relation de plus en plus ténue avec l'économie . |
| Keywords: | Behavioral Economics, Interdisciplinarity, Social Network Analysis |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05543132 |
| By: | Wispelwey, Bram; Ray, Lana; Hamideh, Dina; De La Torre, Steven; Bahour, Nadine; Rogers, Artair; Mills, David; Hekler, Eric |
| Abstract: | Settler colonialism is increasingly recognized as a structural force shaping Indigenous health, yet analytic frameworks in the health sciences have limitations in representing its causal dynamics. While Indigenous communities have long identified settler colonialism as foundational in shaping health and wellbeing, conventional epidemiologic approaches rely on causal assumptions—linearity, discrete exposures, and stable pathways—that are misaligned with its theorized properties as a dynamic, transtemporal, and adaptive social process. This misalignment contributes to epistemic exclusion, whereby insights from Indigenous epistemologies and settler colonial studies cannot be represented, remaining analytically unobservable within dominant methodological paradigms. We argue that addressing this gap requires achieving epistemic fit across three interdependent layers: teleological—orienting inquiry toward relationality rather than dominance; ontological—mapping settler colonialism’s higher-order functions onto context-specific forms; and epistemological—selecting causal representations adequate to the phenomenon’s complexity. Drawing on theory construction methodology, we develop a provisional framework for the settler colonial determination of health and outline how its causal architecture may be represented through multi-causal, feedback-informed approaches. We further identify concrete implications for empirical research, including the use of configurational causal logics and dynamic modeling strategies to capture interaction, emergence, and historical dependence. By positioning settler colonialism as a conditioning causal structure rather than a discrete determinant or indecipherable past episode, this framework extends existing public health approaches and provides a foundation for developing empirically tractable models that better align with Indigenous epistemologies and lived experience. Advancing such approaches is essential for generating explanations—and ultimately interventions—adequate to the complexity of health inequities in settler colonial contexts. |
| Date: | 2026–03–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:b5xyp_v2 |
| By: | Behzadi, Setareh; Wenzel, Julia; Weidinger, Felix; Elbert, Ralf |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:159761 |
| By: | Wendy Currie (Audencia Business School); Jonathan Seddon (Audencia Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the narratives of the evolution of the first digital asset, Bitcoin. Emerging as an unregulated, decentralized digital asset, it was developed as an alternative to fiat currency. Using primary and secondary data sources, the discussion is framed around four key themes that influence adoption: cryptographic technology, trust, decentralized finance, and regulation. Each focal theme extends the dialectical debates on Bitcoin, revealing competing narratives on digital responsibility and oversight of the nascent digital asset market. A nuanced understanding of the trajectory and scope of digital currencies to repurpose financial markets is presented. This study aligns with this special issue through its analysis of positive anda negative crypto-asset contributions and the digital responsibilities that develop from transformation and adoption. A major contribution is that decentralized finance is not empirically confirmed, as centralized financial institutions are now offering digital assets as part of their regulated client portfolios. |
| Keywords: | Crypto-asset technology, Trust, Regulation, Bitcoin, Ethereum |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05563837 |
| By: | Rahma Mzouri (Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Economiques et Sociales - UM5 - Université Mohammed V de Rabat [Agdal]); Abdelkrim Kandrouch (Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Economiques et Sociales - UM5 - Université Mohammed V de Rabat [Agdal]) |
| Abstract: | Corporate failure constitutes a major economic, legal, and social issue, particularly in emerging economies such as Morocco. This article provides a critical synthesis of the theoretical and empirical approaches to understanding and predicting corporate bankruptcy, through an examination of financial, structural, and institutional determinants. Drawing on the international literature and the specific characteristics of the Moroccan context, it addresses the multidimensional nature of financial distress, the costs associated with corporate failure, resolution mechanisms, and the principal predictive models. A critical discussion of these paradigms is conducted by assessing their statistical assumptions, respective predictive performance, and theoretical as well as practical limitations. The article adopts a comparative perspective to shed light on epistemological controversies related to the selection of indicators and the determination of the optimal cut-off threshold. It is argued that the evolution of the field does not stem from a mere technological substitution, but rather from a cumulative trajectory of increasing endogenization, in which technical approaches must be articulated with economic and legal interpretative frameworks. Finally, this synthesis opens a discussion on prospects for multi-model integration, algorithmic transparency, and interpretative sovereignty in the context of the accelerating digitalization of finance. Keywords: Corporate failure, financial distress, Morocco, capital structure, predictive models, liquidation, governance, forecasting. JEL Classification: C53, G32 Type of paper: Theoretical research. |
| Abstract: | La défaillance d'entreprise représente un enjeu économique, juridique et social majeur, notamment dans les économies émergentes comme le Maroc. Cet article propose une synthèse critique des approches de compréhension et de prévision de la faillite d'entreprise à travers une analyse des déterminants financiers, structurels et institutionnels. En s'appuyant sur la littérature internationale et sur les spécificités du contexte marocain, il aborde la nature multidimensionnelle de la difficulté financière, les coûts associés à la défaillance, les mécanismes de résolution, ainsi que les principaux modèles prédictifs. Nous procédons à une discussion critique de ces paradigmes, en examinant leurs hypothèses statistiques, leur pouvoir prédictif respectif, ainsi que leurs limites théoriques et pratiques. L'article adopte une perspective comparative afin de mettre en lumière les controverses épistémologiques sur le choix des indicateurs et la mesure du cut-off optimal. Il est suggéré que l'évolution du champ ne procède pas d'une simple substitution technologique, mais bien d'une trajectoire cumulative d'endogénéisation croissante, dans laquelle les approches techniques doivent être articulées aux régimes d'interprétation économique et juridique. Cette synthèse ouvre enfin sur une discussion des perspectives d'intégration multi-modèle, de transparence algorithmique et de souveraineté interprétative dans le cadre de la digitalisation croissante de la finance. |
| Keywords: | financial distress, predictive models, capital structure, Morocco, governance, gouvernance, liquidation, modèles prédictifs, structure financière, Maroc, détresse financière, Défaillance d'entreprise, Défaillance d'entreprise détresse financière Maroc structure financière modèles prédictifs liquidation gouvernance prévision. |
| Date: | 2026–02–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05527901 |