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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | Carlos Álvarez-Nogal (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); Leandro Prados de la Escosura (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | Contemporary perspectives highlight significant inequality in early modern Spain. Quantitative measures of inequality are often either broad and rough or based on local or scattered estimates, which do not offer a precise overall picture over time. The sale of the Bull of the Crusade provides an opportunity to examine inequality trends consistently in early modern Spain. The Bull of the Crusade was a form of almsgiving granted by the Pope and collected by the Hispanic Monarchy, widely purchased by a population convinced of its spiritual benefits. There were two types of bulls: the standard 2 Reales bull for ordinary people and the 8 Reales bull for the wealthy and individuals of high social standing. We argue that the ratio of the 8 Reales to the 2 Reales bulls sold reflects concentration at the upper end of the distribution. Three main phases emerge: fluctuations around a flat trend from 1570-1630, a sustained decline in the following century, and a notable upward trend thereafter, reaching its peak in the late eighteenth century. A closer study reveals distinct patterns within the Crown of Castile and the Crown of Aragon that converged in the late eighteenth century. |
| Keywords: | Top Income Concentration, Inequality, Early Modern Spain, Bulls |
| JEL: | N33 O15 Z12 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0289 |
| By: | Ariel Coremberg; Emilio Ocampo |
| Abstract: | This paper challenges the widely held view that Argentina’s economy performed relatively well until the early 1970s and that its fabled secular decline began only after 1975. Instead, it advances the alternative hypothesis that the roots of such decline were planted much earlier, and that its pace accelerated in the mid 1940s with the adoption of a corporatist import substitution industrialization (ISI) regime. The resulting distortions in relative prices and misallocation of capital resources generated significant inefficiencies that constrained the economy’s growth potential. Although successive modifications after the mid 1950s improved its performance, by the early 1970s the corporatist ISI regime had exhausted its capacity to sustain growth. The absolute stagnation that followed the 1975 crisis can be explained by the failure of successive governments to overcome the resistance of entrenched interest groups and complete the transition to an open market economy. We support this hypothesis using a range of empirical methodologies –including comparative GDP per capita ratios, convergence analysis, growth accounting and cyclical peak to peak analysis– combined with historical interpretation. We conclude that abrupt regime reversals fostered social conflict, political instability and macroeconomic uncertainty, all of which undermined the sustained productivity gains required for long term growth. |
| JEL: | N16 O11 O43 P16 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cem:doctra:902 |
| By: | Yan Hu; Stephan Maurer |
| Abstract: | Do minorities benefit from social networks? In this paper, we study this question using the historical example of China's first modern bureaucratic organization, the Chinese Maritime Customs Service. Drawing on newly digitized personnel records from 1876-1911, we first show that the Chinese clerks employed by the service were predominantly Cantonese. Using the plausibly exogenous transfers of clerks across stations, we then estimate that a non-Cantonese (minority) clerk benefited significantly from meeting at least one colleague from his same province and dialect. Such connections led to faster promotion and a 5.6% salary increase, with even stronger effects when meeting a clerk who was either senior or of high quality. |
| Keywords: | Chinese maritime customs service, social connections, wages, promotion, minorities |
| Date: | 2025–12–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2138 |
| By: | Leopoldo Fergusson (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that Colombia’s taxation problems reflect a deeper political economy equilibrium shaped by extractive institutions, extreme inequality, and cultural norms that favor individual solutions over collective ones. Historical legacies produced a weak and often distrusted state, which in turn fostered social norms that legitimize rule bending, low tax morale, and clientelistic exchanges. These institutional and cultural arrangements proved mutually reinforcing for decades. Since the 1990s, however, political openness expanded inclusion and triggered greater demand for public goods. The result has been a more responsive state, yet one constrained by persistent political inequality, clientelism, low trust, and reluctance to fund public spending through broad taxation. The mismatch between rising expectations and limited fiscal capacity has now produced a fragile and increasingly untenable fiscal position. Colombia faces a critical choice: renew its fiscal pact on new, more consensual terms or risk recurring crises and democratic erosion as an expensive but ineffective state structure constrains long-run development. |
| Keywords: | Taxation; State capacity; Inequality; Political economy; Clientelism; Social norms; Colombia; Fiscal policy; Institutional change; Public goods |
| JEL: | H11 H20 O17 P48 N16 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021810 |
| By: | Iv\'an L\'opez-Espejo |
| Abstract: | This article examines the law of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall in the Spanish economy between 1960 and 2024, considering the organic composition of capital and the rate of surplus value as central variables. Its aim is to determine whether this law, formulated by Marx in Capital (Vol. III), continues to operate in the contemporary context. The methodology consists of transforming orthodox macroeconomic categories derived from the Spanish National Accounts (CNE), available in BDMACRO, into Marxist variables: constant capital ($c$), variable capital ($v$), and surplus value ($pv$). Based on these, historical series of the organic composition of capital ($q$), the rate of surplus value ($pv'$), and the rate of profit ($g'$) are constructed, adjusted to constant prices to ensure temporal coherence and comparability. The results show a sustained increase in $q$ and a slight decrease in $pv'$, generating a tendential decline in $g'$ with cyclical fluctuations associated with specific crises. The conclusions empirically confirm the validity of the law in Spain, highlighting the historical limits of capitalism and providing quantitative evidence on the structural dynamics of profitability. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.23427 |
| By: | Holthaus, Krista L.H.; Nuevo-Chiquero, Ana (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | We study within-family differences by order of birth in survival and longevity in 19th century Netherlands. Using existing matched birth and death records from the Dutch provinces of Groningen and Drenthe, we report no significant differences in survival to ages 5 or 18 or longevity for those reaching adulthood by their order of birth among all siblings. When we allow the effect to vary by gender of the individual and of the older siblings, we find a small negative (positive) effect driven by same-(different-)gender older siblings, suggesting certain within-gender competition on survival. The effects, however, are small -- around 0.5 percentage points on survival levels above 75\% -- and are consistently restricted to early life. Longevity, once the individual reaches adulthood, is not consistently correlated with birth order for more flexible specifications. Importantly, we do not detect any differences by socio-economic status as captured by the father's occupation, nor do we observe a particular trend over time. This lack of observable differences by socio-economic status is noteworthy, especially given the radical changes during the study period, suggesting that it was homogeneously distributed by order of birth. |
| Keywords: | historical data, demographic transition, birth order, the Netherlands |
| JEL: | N33 I14 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18298 |
| By: | Gary Gereffi (Duke University) |
| Abstract: | This featured article is authored by Gary Gereffi, one of the architects of the Global Value Chains (GVC) framework for understanding global trade and a major contributor to the body of scholarship on international trade.<p> The article is part of a series of contributions by global scholars to be published in IER leading up to the 50th anniversary of KIET's founding.<p> In contrast to the relatively fluid process of trade and FDI growth at the height of the globalization era (from the 1980s to mid-2000s), the period from the financial crisis of 2008 to the present is characterized more by disruption and geopolitical fragmentation. The bipolar international order of the Cold War (1950s-1980s) followed a short-lived period of US hegemony in the 1990s and early 2000s; the present environment is a bitterly-contested multipolar global regime that presents MNEs with major uncertainties. This paper describes how this new environment is shaping GVCs today, and the implications carried for firms and governments alike. |
| Keywords: | global value chains; GVCs; GVC governance; industrial policy; value-added trade; global trade; weaponized interdependence; economic security |
| JEL: | F13 F15 F23 F51 F52 F60 |
| Date: | 2025–10–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:021803 |
| By: | Diego Vallarino |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how institutional belonging shapes long-term development by comparing Spain and Uruguay, two small democracies with similar historical endowments whose trajectories diverged sharply after the 1960s. While Spain integrated into dense European institutional architectures, Uruguay remained embedded within the Latin American governance regime, characterized by weaker coordination and lower institutional coherence. To assess how alternative institutional embeddings could have altered these paths, the study develops a generative counterfactual framework grounded in economic complexity, institutional path dependence, and a Wasserstein GAN trained on data from 1960-2020. The resulting Expected Developmental Shift (EDS) quantifies structural gains or losses from hypothetical re-embedding in different institutional ecosystems. Counterfactual simulations indicate that Spain would have experienced significant developmental decline under a Latin American configuration, while Uruguay would have achieved higher complexity and resilience within a European regime. These findings suggest that development is not solely determined by domestic reforms but emerges from a country's structural position within transnational institutional networks. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.21865 |
| By: | Helmut Farbmacher; Rebecca Groh |
| Abstract: | This study examines long-term mortality effects of combat exposure using the Vietnam War draft lottery as a quasi-experiment. We validate the lottery by analyzing combat fatalities, revealing that 1951-1952 cohorts had notably fewer lottery-induced deployments than 1950, limiting detectable long-term mortality impacts at the cohort level. Using deceased-only datasets, we invert standard identification by modeling draft eligibility as the outcome. We find significant excess mortality among Black men in the 1950 cohort (1.09\%, approximately 2, 700 additional deaths), and null effects in later cohorts. Findings suggest that pooling cohorts with limited combat exposure may prevent detection of true treatment effects at cohort levels. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.22776 |
| By: | Naudé, Wim (RWTH Aachen University) |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on the relationship between capitalism and the decline in democracy in the West over the past quarter-century. Using data from the V-Dem Institute, Freedom House, and the World Inequality Database, a strong correlation is found between inequality, the rise of tech billionaires, and democratic erosion. This correlation is explained by describing how tech oligarchs grow their political influence through their digital platforms, and their societal control via surveillance and influence of sense-making. The pivot of tech oligarchs toward the Military Industrial Complex (MIC) will accelerate the erosion of democracy. The implication is that efforts to regulate the digital economy to protect democracy will not be effective unless accompanied by decisive measures to break up the oligarchy and dismantle the Permanent War Economy. |
| Keywords: | capitalism, inequality, oligarchy, democracy |
| JEL: | P16 D31 O33 O40 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18293 |
| By: | Hideshi Itoh (Waseda Business School, Waseda University, JAPAN); Takashi Shimizu (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University, JAPAN); Yasuo Takatsuki (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the interaction between formal and relational enforcement in early modern Japan, focusing on financial relationships between Daimyo (regional lords) and merchants. Due to class distinctions, loans from merchants to Daimyo lacked legal enforceability, while contracts among merchants were court-enforceable. Some merchants built long-term self-enforcing relationships with Daimyo (becoming Tachiiri), whereas others provided short-term formal loans to underfunded Tachiiri. We develop a model with two markets—one that matches Daimyo with merchants, and the other that matches underfunded Tachiiri with lending merchants—and identify conditions for their co-existence in equilibrium. The analysis shows that merchants value becoming Tachiiri for long-term gains, and that the opportunities for short-term formal lending enhance the sustainability of relational contracts between Daimyo and Tachiiri. |
| Keywords: | Relational contracts; Formal contracts; Matching markets; Financial relationships; Early modern Japan |
| JEL: | C73 D53 D83 D86 N25 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2025-33 |
| By: | Christina D Romer |
| Keywords: | fiscal-monetary interactions; policy coordination; central bank independence; fiscal consolidation |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rba:rbaacp:acp2025-01 |
| By: | Carlos Álvarez-Nogal (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | Adaptation strategies are considered important in mitigating the mortality effects of warm temperatures, but less is known about the role of public health interventions. I study how the provision of three health-enhancing services—sanitary infrastructures, scientific-based infant care and hospital care—influenced the temperature-mortality gradient in Germany during the period 1888-1913. I find that: (i) the mortality impact of warm temperatures was substantial; (ii) heat-related mortality (infant deaths) decreased by ca. 25 (30) percent; and (iii) greater access to piped water, infant care and hospital care account for 60 (25) percent of the mortality decline at high temperatures. |
| Keywords: | Germany, extreme temperatures, mortality, public health, climate |
| JEL: | I10 I30 I18 N33 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0290 |
| By: | Marijn A Bolhuis; Jakree Koosakul; Neil Shenai |
| Abstract: | Tensions between fiscal and monetary policies have become the focus of macroeconomic policy debates in recent years. Yet, there are few direct measures to quantify the degree of such tensions. This paper introduces the concept of "fiscal r-star, " which is the real interest rate required to stabilize debt levels when the primary balance is set exogenously, output is growing at potential, and inflation is at target. Based on standard macroeconomic frameworks, we show analytically that the difference between the traditional monetary policy r-star and fiscal r-star—referred to as the "fiscal-monetary gap"— is a useful proxy for fiscal-monetary tensions. Computing the fiscal-monetary gap using 140 years of data from 16 advanced economies, fiscal-monetary tensions are currently at historic highs not seen since World War II. Moreover, larger fiscal-monetary gaps are associated with a range of adverse macroeconomic outcomes, including rising debt levels, higher inflation, exchange rate depreciations, financial repression, as well as elevated risks of future crises. Using the introduced framework, we show analytically how different policy levers can attenuate fiscal-monetary tensions, but provide some initial evidence on why implementation may be challenging today. In the absence of fiscal consolidation, policymakers may increasingly implement policies that undermine central bank independence and resort to financial repression to reduce tensions over time. |
| Keywords: | fiscal r-star; fiscal-monetary interactions; fiscal dominance; inflation |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rba:rbaacp:acp2025-05 |
| By: | Kastika, Eduardo |
| Abstract: | Este artículo examina la evolución de la creatividad en las organizaciones desde la década de 1940, analizando cómo los enfoques de publicidad, psicología, management e inteligencia artificial han marcado su desarrollo. A través de una revisión histórica segmentada por décadas, se muestra el tránsito de la creatividad como rasgo de genios individuales a proceso sistemático integrado en la gestión. Las implicaciones subrayan la importancia de fomentar una cultura organizacional creativa, promover la colaboración interdisciplinaria y adoptar herramientas digitales y metodologías ágiles. Se concluye que la creatividad es hoy un componente estratégico clave para la innovación, la toma de decisiones y la resolución de problemas. De cara al futuro, la transformación digital, un liderazgo adaptativo y la incorporación de enfoques sostenibles y éticos serán motores esenciales para potenciar la creatividad en la gestión empresarial. Este recorrido evidencia la complejidad y multidisciplinariedad del fenómeno creativo en el entorno organizacional. |
| Keywords: | Creatividad; Cultura Organizacional; Administración de Empresas; |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:4429 |
| By: | Yhlas Sovbetov; Muhittin Kaplan |
| Abstract: | The empirical literature provides mixed results on the relationship between inflation and unemployment, therefore, there is no consensus on validity and stability of the Phillips Curve. It also seems to be closely related with country-specific factors and the examination time periods. Considering the importance of this trade-off for policy-makers, this study aims to examine validity and stability of expectations-augmented Phillips Curve across 41 countries focusing on three different time periods between 1980 and 2016. The study documents several findings both in country-specific and in panel estimation analysis. First, we find that forward-looking characteristic of inflation picks up weight after 1990's which indicates that inflation became more sensitive to the expected prices. Second, we observe that inflation in developed markets is more forward-looking comparing to emerging and frontier markets. This indicates that developed markets dear forward-looking price expectations more than other markets. Third, we find that that both forward- and backward-looking Phillips Curve fails to work in Brazil, Greece, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, Romania, and Turkey. We address it to their long history of high and volatile inflation. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.22786 |
| By: | Anthony Edo; Thomas Renault; Jérôme Valette |
| Abstract: | How does the electoral success of a far-right political force shape the strategies and policy platforms of mainstream candidates? We answer this question by exploiting the political shock of the creation of the Front National, an antiimmigration party, in 1972 and its sudden electoral breakthrough in the 1980s. Through a comprehensive textual analysis of candidate manifestos in French parliamentary elections from 1968 to 1997, we find that right-wing candidates respond to local far-right success, measured as voting shares, by amplifying the salience of immigration in their manifestos. They also adopt more negative positions on immigration and increasingly associate it with issues such as crime and the welfare state. In contrast, the ideological positions of left-wing candidates do not shift in response to far-right electoral gains. We finally show that the strategic adjustments of right-wing candidates help mitigate electoral losses to far-right competitors. |
| Keywords: | Political Economy;Anti-immigrant Parties;Electoral competition;Party Platform;Immigration |
| JEL: | F22 P16 D72 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2025-20 |
| By: | Shuhui Xiang (Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (IHEID)); Xinran Yin (Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (IHEID)); Yuan Zi (Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (IHEID) and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | This paper constructs a new database based on China's WTO subsidy notifications (2001–2022) and provides the first systematic overview of China's industrial subsidies over the past two decades. Five findings emerge. First, subsidies expanded rapidly, but direct fiscal support stabilized around 0.8 percent of GDP after 2008. Second, China has employed more subsidies than its income level would suggest, with striking policy persistence. Third, subsidies and tax incentives for FDI have declined, while those targeting specific industries and promoting innovation have grown. Fourth, wealthier and more trade-oriented provinces provide more local subsidies. Finally, subsidies are concentrated in a few sectors, and measures based on counts versus values reveal different patterns. These patterns reveal how China's subsidy strategy has evolved, offering insights to state-led development in the 21st century. |
| Keywords: | Industrial Policy; Industrial Subsidies; Chinese Economy |
| JEL: | F13 O25 H2 |
| Date: | 2025–12–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp18-2025 |
| By: | Schwagmann, Mirko |
| Abstract: | Diese Arbeit gibt einen Überblick über die Geschichte der gewerkschaftlichen Bildungsarbeit von 1918 bis heute und stellt die erste übergreifende Studie zu diesem Thema dar. In der Rekonstruktion der Traditions- und Konjunkturlinien von Bildungskonzeptionen und Methodik zieht das Working Paper folgendes Resümee: Einerseits lassen sich - auch wenn klassische Themen, wie Arbeitsrecht oder Tarifpolitik einen festen Platz im Bildungsprogramm innehatten - keine klaren inhaltlichen Tendenzen erkennen. Andererseits wurde die Bildungsarbeit von immer wiederkehrenden Debatten begleitet: Das Spannungsverhältnis zwischen Mitglieder- bzw. Allgemeinbildung und Zweck- bzw. Funktionärsbildung zieht sich bis in die heutige Zeit, ebenso wie die Frage nach der Ideologie in der Bildung. |
| Keywords: | Bildungsarbeit, Gewerkschaftsschule, Frauenbildung, Bildungsobleute, Jugendarbeit |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hbsfof:333416 |
| By: | Li, Mengjie; Lopez, Rigoberto A.; Mohapatra, Debashrita; Steinbach, Sandro |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Industrial Organization |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343666 |