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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | Barbara Boelmann; Carola Stapper |
| Abstract: | Over the past century, women have gained formal political rights, yet remain under-represented in leadership-partly due to lower demand for representation among women themselves. In this paper, we shift the perspective from why men extended political rights to women toward what shaped women's own demand for representation. Specifically, we study how male absence during World War I affected German women's demand for the franchise, exploiting exogenous variation in drafting intensity across regions for identification. To make demand for political representation directly measurable, we construct a newly digitised panel dataset of the universe of German suffragette clubs-a revealed-preference measure of demand, given the considerable costs of maintaining a club, especially under wartime restrictions on political activism. Our results show that women were more likely to keep suffragette clubs open in counties with greater male absence. This effect is driven by regions where women publicly led war relief efforts, pointing to agency and specifically women's experience in visible leadership roles as the central mechanism. We further show that this demand for representation persisted after the franchise was extended, with women more likely to run for parliament and to vote in counties with greater wartime male absence and a suffragette club. |
| Keywords: | women's political representation, suffrage movement, agency |
| JEL: | J16 N44 D72 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26077 |
| By: | Greitens, Jan |
| Abstract: | This paper critically examines the relationship between Georg Friedrich Knapp's "State Theory of Money" and today's Neo-Chartalism, often associated with Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Several contributions have questioned whether the Neo-Chartalists are right to claim Knapp as their predecessor. However, these analyses do not pay sufficient attention to the historical context in which Knapp wrote. This includes contemporary debates and the monetary history of his time. The Neo-Chartalists' reception of Knapp's ideas was almost exclusively through the 1924 translation of the "State Theory of Money". Problematically, this translation has many shortcomings, in particular a narrow focus on the legislative state. But Knapp's focus was on country-specific examples of currencies, in particular the 1892 currency reform in Austria-Hungary. There are significant differences between Knapp's published and unpublished writings. Archival findings reveal Knapp's reflections on inflation, which align him with the Real Bills Doctrine and a proto-Fiscal Theory of the Price Level. He argued that monetary state financing should be used only as a last resort. Contrary to MMT's advocacy for state-funded expenditures, Knapp supported a balanced budget, expressing concern over the impact of monetary inflation on exchange rates. Apart from fairly general principles such as the nominality of money, the similarities between Knapp and the Neo-Chartalists diminish as one critically examines Knapp's writings. Therefore, the claim that MMT is based on Knapp should be rejected. |
| Keywords: | Neo-Chartalism, Georg Friedrich Knapp, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), Real Bills Doctrine, Fiscal Theory of the Price Level |
| JEL: | B31 E42 B50 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:340197 |
| By: | Marguerite Obolensky; Marco Tabellini; Charles A. Taylor |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the concept of "climate matching'' in migration-the idea that migrants seek out destinations with familiar climates-and studies its implications for the geography of economic activity in the United States. We document that temperature distance between origin and destination predicts the distribution of migrants across U.S. counties, for both internal and international migration in the historical (1850-1940) and modern (1970-2019) periods. These patterns cannot be explained by the spatial correlation of climate or the persistence of ethnic networks, and instead reflect two mechanisms: the transferability of climate-specific skills and climate as an amenity. We then study the economic consequences of climate mismatch during 1880-1920, a period of rapid growth and structural transformation. Using an instrumental variable strategy that interacts origin-country inflow shocks with the timing of county railroad access, we find that mismatch reduced agricultural productivity and accelerated the exit from farming. However, manufacturing output did not rise. Instead, manufacturing productivity declined and population growth was lower in counties with higher climate mismatch. These effects left a lasting imprint: a 1°C increase in 1880--1920 mismatch is associated with 2.5% lower per capita income in 1940. |
| Keywords: | Migration, climate, climate matching, economic geography |
| JEL: | J15 J61 N31 N32 Q54 R11 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26031 |
| By: | Kaja, Fatjon |
| Abstract: | This article advances a new perspective on corporate purpose, grounded in the institutional conditions under which corporate privileges are granted. Using a novel dataset of historical UK royal charters and a mixed-methods empirical strategy, the study shows that early corporations articulated specific, enforceable, and public-facing purpose clauses because incorporation was a scarce privilege that allowed the Crown to impose obligations as a "asking price" for the benefits of the corporate form. Machine-learning evidence demonstrates that clauses reflecting Crown leverage cluster systematically and decline over time as incorporation becomes more accessible. The findings reframe corporate purpose not merely as a normative contest among stakeholders but as the product of institutional bargaining at the point of corporate formation, offering a historical lens for contemporary purpose debates. |
| Keywords: | corporate purpose, UK royal charters, text as data, shareholder primacy, historical perspective |
| JEL: | K00 K2 K22 N80 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:340163 |
| By: | Julia Baarck; Moritz Bode; Andreas Peichl |
| Abstract: | This paper is the first to show that intergenerational income mobility in Germany has decreased over time. We estimate intergenerational persistence for the birth cohorts 1968-1987 and find that it rises sharply for cohorts born in the late 1970s and early 1980s, after which it stabilizes at a higher level. As a step towards understanding the mechanisms behind this increase, we show that parental income has become more important for educational outcomes of children. Moreover, we show that the increase in intergenerational persistence coincided with a surge in cross-sectional income inequality, providing novel evidence for an ``Intertemporal Great Gatsby Curve''. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational Mobility, Social Mobility, Income, Education, Inequality. |
| JEL: | J62 I24 D63 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:25103 |
| By: | Massimo Anelli; Paolo Pinotti; Zachary Porreca |
| Abstract: | We document the transplantation of the Sicilian Mafia to the United States in the 1920s, when a large-scale repression campaign in Italy targeted Mafia strongholds and forced many Mafiosi to migrate, and study the resulting short- and long-term effects across neighborhoods in U.S. cities. Using newly linked administrative and historical data from the U.S. Census, Social Security records, and declassified files of the Federal Bureau of Narcotics, we show that neighborhoods hosting enclaves of migrants from Sicilian Mafia strongholds targeted by the repression later became centers of Italo-American Mafia activity. These neighborhoods experienced higher violence, incarceration, and financial exclusion in the short run, but higher income, employment, and educational attainment in the long run. The results suggest that while the arrival of organized criminal networks initially intensified conflict and exclusion, their subsequent consolidation generated localized economic benefits, helping to explain the long-term resilience and persistence of organized crime. |
| Keywords: | organized crime, migration, historical persistence, neighborhood effects |
| JEL: | K42 F22 N32 R23 D02 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:25165 |
| By: | Tommaso Giommoni; Gabriel Loumeau; Marco Tabellini |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we provide systematic evidence in support of the long-standing hypothesis that taxation was an important driver of the French Revolution. We first document that areas with heavier taxes experienced more riots between 1750 and 1789 and voiced more complaints against taxation in the "cahiers de doléances" of 1789. After showing that these effects are driven by indirect taxes, we exploit sharp spatial differences in the salt tax and the "traites"-the two principal indirect levies-to implement a regression discontinuity design (RDD). We find that unrest was higher on the high-tax side of the border. These effects intensified over time, peaking in the 1780s, and were stronger where fiscal disparities were larger and Enlightenment ideas more widespread. We further show that adverse weather shocks amplified unrest in high-tax municipalities. We then document that taxation fueled the spread of unrest during the "Grande Peur"-the wave of revolts that swept France in July 1789 and culminated in the abolition of feudal privileges. Finally, we link taxation to revolutionary politics in Paris, documenting that deputies from heavily taxed constituencies were more likely to frame the tax system as oppressive, support the Revolution, demand the abolition of the monarchy, and vote for the king's execution. |
| Keywords: | Taxation, French Revolution, state capacity, regime change. |
| JEL: | D74 H20 H31 N43 O23 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26049 |
| By: | Luis Bosshart; Max Deter; Leander Heldring; Cathrin C. Mohr; Matthias Weigand |
| Abstract: | We digitize and analyze the near-universe of National Socialist German Workers’ Party (NSDAP) membership records and link them to population and industrial censuses. Four findings emerge. First, as the party expanded, its membership came to resemble the broader population more closely in occupational, demographic, and religious terms. Second, SS members’ characteristics remained different: younger, more educated, and more fanatical, as measured by the display of Nazi insignia in membership portraits. Third, within communities, coworkers, and families, early membership generated hysteresis, with subsequent entrants drawn from the same groups. Finally, local increases in party membership are associated with subsequent deportations of Germany’s Jews. |
| JEL: | D74 N44 P16 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35120 |
| By: | Lavy Victor; Netanel Ben-Porath; Ran Abramitzky; Michal Palgi |
| Abstract: | While many socialist countries suffered from harsh economic crises, studying their impacts on economic and political attitudes is challenging because of the scarcity of reliable data in nondemocratic contexts. We study a democratic socialist setting where we have ample information on such attitudes: the Israeli kibbutzim. Exploiting an economic crisis that hit some kibbutzim more than others, we find that the crisis led to reduced support for leftist political parties. This effect persisted for over 20 years after the crisis had ended. We document that the electoral movement was rooted in a rightward shift in economic attitudes, suggesting that economic crises may undermine socialist regimes by silently changing attitudes toward them. In our unique setting, we can also study recovery mechanisms from the crisis. First, we find that while a sharp debt relief arrangement restored trust in the leadership, it did not reverse the impact of the crisis on economic attitudes. Second, as part of their efforts to recover from the crisis, kibbutzim liberalized their labor markets. Analyzing the staggered shift away from equal sharing to market-based wages, we find that this labor market liberalization led kibbutz members to move further rightward in their political voting and economic attitudes. |
| Keywords: | Economic Crisis, Disillusionment from Socialism, economic and political attitudes |
| JEL: | J01 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:25129 |
| By: | James Feigenbaum; Yi-Ju Hung; Marco Tabellini; Monia Tomasella |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of immigration restrictions on the intergenerational mobility of US-born men in the United States. We link US-born sons observed in 1900, 1920, and 1940 full-count Censuses to their fathers, and construct a measure of county-level exposure to the 1920s immigration acts, which sharply curtailed immigration from Southern and Eastern Europe. Exploiting this policy-induced variation, we find that the quotas reduced intergenerational mobility among US-born white men, but had no adverse effect for Black men. Among whites, losses were smaller for sons of richer fathers, who were more likely to migrate away from highly exposed areas. Evidence from the 1940 Census indicates that exposed white men were less likely to be employed and earned lower wages in adulthood, consistent with both occupational downgrading and reduced productivity within occupations. We show that these effects operated through both reduced immigrant-native complementarities and incomplete substitution from unrestricted migration, while human capital investment can explain at most only a modest part of the total effect. |
| Keywords: | Immigration; immigration restrictions; intergenerational mobility |
| JEL: | J15 J62 K37 N32 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26037 |
| By: | HAN, Yidan; SNG, Tuan-hwee |
| Abstract: | We revisit a long-held consensus that the number of county-level units in imperial China remained stable and consistently hovered around 1, 250 for two millennia. We argue that this consensus, traceable to G. W. Skinner 's influential introductory chapter in The City in Late Imperial China, focuses excessively on the county (xian), which exist ed throughout the imperial period, and overlooks other dynasty-specific types of field administration. During the Northern Song dynasty (960- 1127), alongside the predominantly rural counties, the state established various alternative types of field administration, most notably the towns (zhen), which administered urban households. Approximately 30% of the 1, 900 towns existing in the year 1084 were staffed by centrally-appointed bureaucrat s. These officials collect ed t axes, provided basic public services, interact ed with the population daily, and were directly account able to the prefect. Overlooking the existence of these towns means underestimating not only the scale of the Song field administration, but also its sophistication. Unlike later dynasties, the Song state differentiated between urban and rural settlements administratively, and its urban coverage was unsurpassed until the modern age. We trace the precocity of the Song system to institutional innovations during the two centuries of political fragmentation that preceded the Song dynasty. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hitcei:2025-02 |
| By: | Björn Brey; Joanne Haddad; Lamis Kattan |
| Abstract: | State-led repression of minority identities is a well-documented phenomenon, yet its implications for national identity remain understudied. We examine how the Soviet state-induced famine (1932-33) shapes contemporary Ukrainian national identity through vertical (familial) and horizontal (community/state) transmission. Using newly geocoded individual-level data, we find that individuals from high-famine-exposure areas are more likely to identify as Ukrainian. We document that under Soviet rule, family networks preserved identity, while church closures weakened community transmission. After independence, state-led remembrance efforts, revitalized horizontal transmission. Our findings show how repression and remembrance shape identity persistence and reflect the famine's lasting influence on Ukrainian-Russian relations. |
| Keywords: | Political Repression, National Identity, Intergenerational Transmission, Historical Memory, Trade, Conflict. |
| JEL: | D74 N44 P20 P35 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:25112 |
| By: | Sascha O. Becker; Jeanet Sinding Bentzen; Chun Chee Kok |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a survey of the literature on gender differences in religiosity and the influence of religion on gender-related economic and social outcomes. Part I examines why women tend to be more religious than men, discussing central explanations. Part II explores how religion impacts various gender-related outcomes, such as gender norms and attitudes, education, labor market participation, fertility, health, legal institutions and reforms, and discrimination. Within each domain, we distinguish between effects driven by individual religiosity (intensity of religious practice or belief) and those driven by their religious denomination. We synthesize findings from numerous studies, highlighting data sources, measures of religion and gender outcomes, and empirical strategies. We focus on studies with credible causal identification-such as natural experiments, instrumental variable approaches, and policy changes-to uncover the impact of religion on outcomes. Correlational studies are also reviewed to provide context. Across studies, the evidence suggests that religious teachings and participation often reinforce traditional gender roles, affecting women's education, labor force participation, and fertility choices, although there are important nuances and exceptions. We also document instances where secular reforms or religious movements have altered these outcomes. The survey concludes by identifying gaps in the literature and suggesting directions for future research. An important take-away from our review is that rigorous empirical studies are scarce, leaving room for novel causal studies in this field. |
| Keywords: | Gender gap; Religion; Religiosity; Gender norms; Education; Fertility; Labor markets; Cultural transmission |
| JEL: | Z12 J16 J24 I21 J13 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:25111 |
| By: | Sonia Bhalotra; Damian Clarke; Atheendar Venkataramani |
| Abstract: | We leverage the introduction of the first antibiotic therapies in 1937 to examine the long run effects of early childhood pneumonia on adult educational attainment, employment, income, and work-related disability. Using census data, we document large average gains on all outcomes, alongside substantial heterogeneity by race and gender. On average, Black men exhibit smaller schooling gains than white men but larger employment and earnings gains. Among Black men (and women), we identify a pronounced gradient in gains linked to systemic racial discrimination in the pre-Civil Rights era: individuals born in more discriminatory Jim Crow states realized much smaller gains than those born in less discriminatory states. There is no similar gradient among white Americans. Women of both races exhibit smaller education and earnings gains than men on average, consistent with cultural and institutional barriers to women's work. Our findings highlight the role of opportunities in shaping the extent to which investments in early-life health translate into longer run economic gains. |
| Keywords: | Early childhood, medical innovation, race, human capital production, education, income, disability, systemic discrimination, institutions, infectious disease, pneumonia, antibiotics, sulfa drugs |
| JEL: | I10 I14 J71 H70 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26012 |
| By: | Paul C. Behler; Paulina Schröder |
| Abstract: | This paper studies ecospirituality - spiritual views that people have about the natural world. First, utilizing folklore data from around 1, 000 pre-industrial societies, we present the first comprehensive global measurement of ecospirituality. Our analysis reveals systematic cultural variation: ecospirituality is most prevalent in South America and least prevalent in Europe. Additionally, we find a strong negative correlation between ecospirituality and belief in high gods. Second, we study the potential impact of historical ecospirituality on current environmental attitudes. Combining data from the Integrated Values Survey with folklore, we find no statistically significant relationship between contemporary environmental attitudes and the prevalence of ecospirituality in the folklore of ones ancestors. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Attitudes, Ecospirituality, Folklore |
| JEL: | Q50 Z12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2594 |
| By: | Moritz Lubczyk; Maria Waldinger |
| Abstract: | What are the long-run effects of sustained exposure to air pollution? A unique natural experiment allows us to examine this question. In 1982, a sudden cut in Soviet oil forced Socialist East Germany to switch to highly polluting lignite coal. While the shock sharply increased air pollution near mining regions, authoritarian restrictions on mobility, housing, and jobs prevented sorting responses. We document persistent labor market impacts over three decades. Exposed individuals work less, earn lower wages, and retire earlier. Health is a key mechanism: infant mortality rises by 9% and the long-run incidence of asthma and cardiopathy increases significantly. |
| Keywords: | Air pollution, labor supply, migration, place effects |
| JEL: | I15 J24 J60 N54 Q53 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2585 |
| By: | Sebastian Galiani; Ivan Lopez Cruz; Alessandra A. Palazzo; Gustavo Torrens |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes a central colonial institution: the monopolization of foreign trade through exclusive trading companies. We interpret this arrangement as an economic institution that creates a wedge between domestic and international prices—effectively an export tax—allowing metropolitan intermediaries to extract rents from colonial trade. Our primary theoretical contribution demonstrates that the economic and political consequences of this institutional form depend systematically on the structure of comparative advantage between the metropolis and the colony. While colonial export taxation unambiguously worsens the colony’s effective terms of trade, its effect on the metropolis is conditional. When the colony and metropolis are competitors—sharing a comparative advantage in the same sector—a colonial export tax can improve the metropolis’s terms of trade. Conversely, when they are complementary—specializing in different sectors—the same policy can deteriorate the metropolis’s terms of trade by raising the cost of imported inputs. Because these terms-of-trade movements generate distinct distributive effects, the colonial monopoly reshapes political coalitions within the metropolis, influencing whether exclusive trading companies persist or are dismantled. We formalize this mechanism in a parsimonious general equilibrium model and illustrate it through the historical experience of Great Britain, India, and the East India Company (EIC), presenting the EIC as a salient instance of a broader institutional logic. |
| JEL: | D74 N41 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35121 |
| By: | Sascha O. Becker; Christian Dustmann; Hyejin Ku |
| Abstract: | We examine the long-term labor market impact of the steam engine, an early general-purpose technology, by linking newly digitized 19th-century records from Prussia to modern German labor market data (1975-2019). Regions with a higher concentration of steam engines per worker in 1875 exhibit higher wages today, primarily because of higher firm productivity and a more skilled workforce. These regions also exhibited greater skill diversity in 1939 and generated more innovations between 1877 and 1918, a pattern that persists to this day. Our findings highlight a lasting, self-reinforcing cycle between technology and skills, set in motion by the steam engine, offering a novel explanation for regional income disparities and their persistence. |
| Keywords: | steam engine, technology adoption, diversity, innovation, human capital, productivity |
| JEL: | I24 J24 O14 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26013 |
| By: | Ristolainen, Kim |
| Abstract: | We develop a novel sentiment measure from survey forecasts that captures the component of beliefs arising from the systematic misaggregation of public information relative to a machine benchmark based on the same information set. We extend this sentiment measure historically for a panel of 78 countries using machine learning models trained on BERT embeddings of historical news articles (1903-2020). The backcasted sentiment shows that shocks in median sentiment predict credit booms in the non-tradable corporate sector, which prior research has linked to financial crises. We further find that this sentiment component is shaped by memory-related dynamics, as the time elapsed since major crises and the share of young-to-old people in the population predict surges in optimism even when recent economic developments are controlled for. Taken together, the findings provide new historical evidence consistent with the Minsky-Kindleberger view on financial crises. |
| Keywords: | Survey data, Sentiment, Memory, Machine Learning, Text Data, Credit growth, Financial Crisis |
| JEL: | E44 E51 G01 D84 G41 E32 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:340165 |
| By: | Manuel Bagues; Carmen Villa |
| Abstract: | Official Spanish birth registry data report sex ratios well above expected levels between 1975 and 2000, peaking at 109 boys per 100 girls in the early 1980s, the highest in the world at that time. Prior research has attributed these elevated ratios to factors such as maternal age, birth order, and differential prenatal care. We show that they instead reflect systematic coding errors by the Spanish Statistical Office. Census data reveal normal sex ratios for the same cohorts. The birth registry also exhibits implausible monthly volatility and asymmetrically distributed outliers, consistent with one-directional miscoding of females as males. Additional corroborating evidence comes from provisional birth statistics, which show significantly lower sex ratios than the finalised records, and from anomalous patterns in adjacent fields on the birth registration form. Our findings underscore the responsibility of statistical agencies to validate administrative records and cross-check them against alternative sources. |
| Keywords: | Sex ratio at birth, birth registry, coding errors, missing women in Spain |
| JEL: | J16 J13 C18 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26061 |
| By: | Matthias Doepke; Mariko Klasing |
| Abstract: | Children and their parents resemble each other in terms of economic preferences such as patience and risk tolerance. What drives the intergenerational correlation in preferences? We build a model of preference formation that combines genetic transmission, state influence through childcare institutions, and altruistic parental socialization, where parents seek to endow children with preferences conducive to success. To assess the importance of these channels, we exploit German reunification as a natural experiment that simultaneously removed state indoctrination and transformed economic incentives. For risk tolerance-a trait with arguably high returns during a rapid transition to a market economy-parent-child correlations decline by more than a third among East German families after reunification, consistent with parents actively instilling new values in their children to prepare them for capitalism. For trust and patience, correlations rise as the state withdraws and socialization in the family looms larger. These contrasting patterns suggest that parents do not just aim to reproduce their own preferences but adapt their socialization effort to the world their children will face. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational preference transmission, Cultural transmission, German reunification, Risk tolerance, Family economics |
| JEL: | D10 I20 J13 Z10 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26083 |
| By: | Cameron Elliott Gordon |
| Abstract: | On March 10, 1933 a moderate earthquake (6.2 on the Richter scale) hit the city of Long Beach, California. Although not especially strong seismically, the quake did extensive damage to property in Long Beach and surrounding communities, and killed 120 people. The main reason why the Long Beach earthquake was so catastrophic was unreinforced masonry building construction. The quake itself is an interesting story, but the aftermath is even more interesting. This single event inspired passage of the Field Act, a template by which later seismic building regulations were developed; it was the first time that accelerographs were used to measure ground motion, thus playing a key role in the continuing development of earthquake science; and the subsequent reconstruction of the City caused the then stagnant economy to take off rather dramatically, serving as a sort of example of what might be called “Disaster Keynesianism.†The Long Beach earthquake is thus an interesting example of the human role in “natural disasters.†|
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auu:hpaper:137 |
| By: | Eduardo Martin Cuesta (Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política (IIEP UBA–CONICET). Buenos Aires, Argentina.); Danilo R. Trupkin (Universidad de San Andrés. Departamento de Economía. Buenos Aires, Argentina.) |
| Abstract: | En este trabajo, se describe y analiza el contexto, el desempeño y las políticas económicas aplicadas en la Argentina en el período 1981-1983. En el marco del final de la última dictadura militar, y desde una perspectiva de largo plazo e impresionista, puede entenderse que estos años constituyeron una transición hacia la democracia. Sin embargo, una mirada más cercana y focalizada permite observar dinámicas políticas diferenciadas, las cuales determinaron de manera heterogénea las políticas económicas del momento. A su vez, todas ellas generaron efectos que persistieron en el tiempo. A un contexto internacional que ya era adverso, se sumó por otro lado el conflicto bélico de 1982 con el Reino Unido de Gran Bretaña; todos estos efectos, tanto domésticos como internacionales, se potenciaron. Con base en lo anterior, presentamos un trabajo exploratorio sobre la transición democrática en la Argentina, en comparación con el proceso regional, observando a la vez las especificidades locales. |
| Keywords: | Historia Económica Argentina; Guerra de Malvinas; Década de 1980 |
| JEL: | N16 N26 E30 E66 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ake:iiepdt:2025-110 |
| By: | Kugler, Peter |
| Abstract: | Our econometric (cointegration) analysis of the Swiss franc US dollar exchange rates over the period 1974 – 2025 provides strong evidence for a negative bias of the forward rate as predictor of the spot rate for the years up to 2007, which disappears with data from 2008 onwards. This implies that hedging increased the expected Swiss franc value of dollar investments before 2008. This advantage of hedging disappeared in the last 15 to 20 years and hedged and unhedged dollar investment have the same franc expected value in the long run. |
| JEL: | E43 E44 G15 |
| Date: | 2026–04–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2026/02 |
| By: | Mariano Arana (Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política (IIEP UBA–CONICET). Buenos Aires, Argentina.); Camilo Mason (Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política (IIEP UBA–CONICET). Buenos Aires, Argentina.) |
| Abstract: | Este Documento de Trabajo examina un conjunto de artículos periodísticos de Julio H. G. Olivera publicados entre noviembre de 1955 y enero de 1956, en el marco del debate suscitado por el denominado Plan Prebisch tras el golpe militar de septiembre de 1955. El documento señala que estos escritos -relativamente desconocidos en la literatura- constituyen la primera intervención sistemática de Olivera en el debate público de política económica y revelan sus primeras aproximaciones a una teoría no monetaria de la inflación. El análisis muestra que Olivera compartía con Prebisch un diagnóstico estructural de la crisis argentina, aunque divergía en los objetivos de la política de estabilización. |
| Keywords: | Plan Prebisch; Julio H. G. Olivera; Pensamiento económico argentino; Política económica; Economistas argentinos; Peronismo; Inflación estructural |
| JEL: | E65 E31 N16 B22 B25 B31 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ake:iiepdt:2026-117 |
| By: | Mitchener, Kris James (Santa Clara University, CAGE, CEPR, CESifo & NBER); Pina, Gonçalo (ESCP Business School) |
| Abstract: | State-contingent debt (SCD) instruments have been proposed as an improvement to sovereign debt markets, but their issuance costs are not well understood. We estimate the SCD premium at issuance and for more than a decade thereafter, employing a quasi-twin bond strategy that uses two very similar French government bonds issued in 1956: one conventional bond and one state-contingent bond with coupons linked to industrial production. At issuance, the expected yield on the SCD bond was 77 basis points higher than its twin. Due to robust growth in the French economy ex-post, the realized SCD premium at issuance was roughly twice as large (146 basis points). However, rising market prices of the state-contingent bond reduced both spreads to zero by 1964. They rose again in May 1968 following an unexpected general strike, which significantly reduced French industrial production; however, by 1970, the SCD premium had fallen to values close to zero. |
| Keywords: | State-contingent debt; risk premia; public debt; GDP bonds; capital markets (France) JEL Classification: H63, N14, E43, E65 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:801 |
| By: | D.W. Kimolo (University of South Africa); N.M. Odhiambo (University of South Africa); S. Nyasha (University of South Africa) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the inflation dynamics in Rwanda from the 1970s to 2021, focusing on policies, trends, challenges, and opportunities in managing inflation. Secondary data sources were used for analysis. The findings show that Rwanda has adopted a multi-faceted approach to inflation control, including macroeconomic policies, economic diversification, and infrastructure investment. The study identifies three distinct episodes of high inflation in the 1970s, early 1990s, and 1994. Since the early 2000s, inflation trends have been erratic, with notable episodes in 2004, 2008-2009, 2012, and 2020. Challenges in managing inflation include import reliance, weak monetary policy transmission, and vulnerability of the agriculture sector. Opportunities for Rwanda lie in economic diversification, improved coordination between fiscal and monetary policy, and sound macroeconomic policies. The study emphasizes the need for a comprehensive approach to inflation management, considering Rwanda's unique circumstances, to achieve stability and inclusive growth through sound policies, diversification, and infrastructure investment. |
| Keywords: | Price Level; Inflation; Deflation; Rwanda |
| Date: | 2024–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:afa:wpaper:wp072024 |
| By: | Juan Pablo Cova; Daniela Muñoz; Camilo Poblete; Claudio Sandoval |
| Abstract: | This document provides a historical review of the statistics and context that shape the evolution of the balance sheet of the Central Bank of Chile (CBC) in its centennial year, covering the period from 1925 to 2024. The document is organized into five macro-periods defined by the main changes in its legal framework, and examines the evolution of the Bank’s assets and liabilities and their relationship with the prevailing mandate, its degree of autonomy, and the available policy tools. The analysis spans from its initial role as an issuing authority under the gold standard to its current configuration as an autonomous central bank with an inflation-targeting regime and a floating exchange rate. Throughout the document, the main economic, financial, and regulatory milestones that have influenced the structure of the CBC’s balance sheet are described, including episodes of crisis, institutional reforms, and modernization processes. It also provides a detailed analysis of the set of measures adopted between 2019 and 2024 in response to extraordinary events—the 2019 social unrest and the economic crisis resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic—examining their impact on the balance sheet, as well as the subsequent normalization process following these events. The study concludes by highlighting the institutional evolution of the Central Bank toward an autonomous entity, with a balance sheet aligned with its policy objectives and a strong capacity to respond to complex scenarios. The international comparison, including during the pandemic, reinforces this view, showing convergence with the practices of central banks in advanced economies. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchee:146 |
| By: | Anthony Edo; Thomas Renault; Jérôme Valette |
| Abstract: | How does the electoral success of a far-right political force shape the strategies and policy platforms of mainstream candidates? We answer this question by exploiting the political shock of the creation of the Front National, an anti-immigration party, in 1972 and its sudden electoral breakthrough in the 1980s. Through a comprehensive textual analysis of candidate manifestos in French parliamentary elections from 1968 to 1997, we find that right-wing candidates respond to local far-right success, measured as voting shares, by amplifying the salience of immigration in their manifestos. They also adopt more negative positions on immigration and increasingly associate it with issues such as crime and the welfare state. In contrast, the ideological positions of left-wing candidates do not shift in response to far-right electoral gains. We finally show that the strategic adjustments of right-wing candidates help mitigate electoral losses to far-right competitors. |
| Keywords: | Political Economy, Anti-immigrant Parties, Electoral competition, Party Platform, Immigration |
| JEL: | F22 P16 D72 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:25155 |
| By: | Tippet, Benjamin; Wildauer, Rafael |
| Abstract: | Each spring, The Sunday Times Rich List (STRL) is published, inviting us as a country to reflect on the question of wealth inequality. When the STRL was first published in 1989, The Queen sat at the top of the list. Today, The King has been pushed down to 258th place, as business owners, aristocrats, celebrities, and others have accumulated vast and unimaginable fortunes. In this short report, we present four key findings from a research project analysing the STRL. The report utilises a novel dataset that has been constructed from archives of the rich list from 1989 to 2024. This dataset provides a unique opportunity to analyse the wealth of the very richest households, who tend to not be captured by other existing data sources. This report updates the previous 2023 report. |
| Keywords: | UK wealth; billionaires; Sunday Times Rich List |
| Date: | 2024–05–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gpe:wpaper:47247 |
| By: | Andrea Ichino; Aldo Rustichini; Giulio Zanella |
| Abstract: | University access has significantly expanded in OECD countries, and further growth figures prominently in political agendas. We study possible consequences of historical and future expansions in a stochastic, general equilibrium Roy model where tertiary educational attainment is determined by cognitive ability and socioeconomic disadvantage. In our analysis, individual productivity depends not only on education but also directly on cognitive ability. The expansion of university access in the UK that started in the 1960s provides an ideal case study to draw lessons for the future. We find that this expansion led to the selection into college of progressively less talented students from advantaged backgrounds. Appropriate counterfactual policies existed that would have achieved the dual goal of increasing college graduates' cognitive ability while improving tertiary education opportunities for the disadvantaged. |
| Keywords: | college education, university, cognitive ability, disadvantage |
| JEL: | I23 I28 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2575 |
| By: | Martin Olsson; Fredrik Heyman |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how automation shapes intergenerational income mobility. Using Swedish register data on parents and children from 1985 to 2019, we study how parental exposure to robots at the occupational and industry level during the 1990s affected children's outcomes up to thirty years later. To address selection, we match parents on detailed worker, firm, and family characteristics and complement this with firm-level variation based on robot and broader automation imports. We also employ two IV strategies that leverage exogenous variation in automation adoption: one based on foreign industry-level robot adoption, and another exploiting differences in managerial education at the firm level. Our results show that parental exposure to robotization and automation reduces children's income and upward mobility, and leads to worse long-run labor market and educational outcomes. These effects are concentrated among low-income families. Evidence suggests that parental labor market shocks and financial strain are key mechanisms. Taken together, the findings indicate that technological change can reduce intergenerational mobility and contribute to long-run inequality. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational Mobility; Robots; Automation; Inequality |
| JEL: | J31 J62 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26047 |
| By: | Peter Lihn Jørgensen; Kevin J. Lansing |
| Abstract: | We develop an endogenous measure of anchoring for short-run expected inflation in a New Keynesian model with full-information rational expectations. Specifically, we allow the fraction of non-reoptimizing firms that index prices to the inflation target, rather than lagged inflation, to depend on observed inflation persistence. The model with endogenous indexation generates a scatter plot of persistence and volatility measures for inflation that approximates the convex pattern observed in quarterly U.S. data. With endogenous indexation, the equilibrium anchoring measure exhibits history dependence. To illustrate this idea, we perform a series of disinflation simulations where the model inflation target declines to 2% at different speeds, starting from around 8% in 1980.Q1. The Volcker disinflation simulation exactly replicates the U.S. data using the model-implied anchoring measure and model-implied shock sequences. We show that a slower disinflation mitigates output losses but results in a weaker anchoring measure over subsequent decades. The Volcker disinflation produces a more severe recession in 1982 but leads to a stronger anchoring measure that renders inflation more resilient to subsequent shocks, such as those that arrive during the Great Recession and the pandemic era. |
| Keywords: | anchored inflation expectations; Philips curve; Endogenous indexation; Great Recession; Pandemic era; History dependence. |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E37 |
| Date: | 2026–04–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:103061 |
| By: | RODRIGUEZ, FRANCISCO |
| Abstract: | Bastos, Geloso, and Bologna Pavlik (2026) argue that the US embargo explains less than one-tenth of the difference in per capita income between Cuba and a counterfactual scenario in which the country did not follow socialist economic policies. We show that their results are driven by the use of an elasticity of income to trade openness that is neither representative nor a reasonable upper bound of the values found in the literature and by their choice to attribute the effect of the interaction between the embargo and other determinants of growth solely to those other determinants. We show that, once these problems are corrected, the embargo can account for a substantial fraction, and in some cases all, of Cuba’s post-1959 economic underperformance. |
| Keywords: | Cuba, Economic Sanctions, International Trade, Economic Growth, Socialism |
| JEL: | F13 F14 O11 O24 O47 |
| Date: | 2026–04–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128796 |