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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | Gardner, Leigh A. |
| Abstract: | African economic history has experienced a revival during the 21st century through the globalisation of economic history as a field and a growing interest in how history has shaped current economic inequalities. This survey reviews the development of the field since its initial foundations, and illustrates the ways in which more recent work has diverged in its methods and approaches. It focuses on three main themes: the effort to bring Africa into global economic history through the construction of comparative datasets and the application of methods derived from the study of other regions; the role of African institutions in shaping these patterns of economic development; and looking beyond the state to religion, culture and entrepreneurship. The survey concludes by identifying some gaps and ideas for future research. |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2026–10–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:141699 |
| By: | Arcangelo Dimico (Department of Economics, Queen's University Belfast); Gaia Narciso (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | Forced sterilization represents one of several coercive population control measures enacted during the 20th century. This paper examines the short‐ and long‐run effects of coerced sterilization, drawing evidence from the experience of Native American women in the 1970s. Beyond reduced fertility, our findings indicate that, in the long run, Native American women exposed to forced sterilization experienced worse health outcomes, lower labor market participation, lower income, and decreased investment in their children's education. We also examine the intergenerational transmission of fertility choices and find suggestive evidence of a reversal: children of mothers exposed to forced sterilization have higher fertility. |
| Keywords: | Sterilization; fertility; human capital; intergenerational transmission |
| JEL: | I15 J13 J15 N32 O12 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep2326 |
| By: | Boelmann, Barbara; Stapper, Carola |
| Abstract: | Over the past century, women have gained formal political rights, yet remain under-represented in leadership - partly due to lower demand for representation among women themselves. In this paper, we shift the perspective from why men extended political rights to women toward what shaped women's own demand for representation. Specifically, we study how male absence during World War I affected German women's demand for the franchise, exploiting exogenous variation in drafting intensity across regions for identification. To make demand for political representation directly measurable, we construct a newly digitised panel dataset of the universe of German suffragette clubs - a revealed-preference measure of ndemand, given the considerable costs of maintaining a club, especially under wartime restrictions on political activism. Our results show that women were more likely to keep suffragette clubs open in counties with greater male absence. This effect is driven by regions where women publicly led war relief efforts, pointing to agency and specifically women's experience in visible leadership roles as the central mechanism. We further show that this demand for representation persisted after the franchise was extended, with women more likely to run for parliament and to vote in counties with greater wartime male absence and a suffragette club. |
| Abstract: | Im Laufe des vergangenen Jahrhunderts haben Frauen zwar formelle politische Rechte erlangt, sind jedoch in Führungspositionen nach wie vor unterrepräsentiert - was zum Teil auf eine geringere Nachfrage nach politischer Vertretung unter den Frauen selbst zurückzuführen ist. In diesem Beitrag verlagern wir den Blickwinkel von der Frage, warum Männer den Frauen politische Rechte gewährten, hin zu der Frage, was die Nachfrage der Frauen nach politischer Vertretung geprägt hat. Konkret untersuchen wir, wie sich die Abwesenheit der Männer während des Ersten Weltkriegs auf die Forderung deutscher Frauen nach dem Wahlrecht auswirkte, wobei wir zur Identifizierung exogene Unterschiede in der Einberufungsintensität zwischen den Regionen nutzen. Um die Nachfrage nach politischer Vertretung direkt messbar zu machen, erstellen wir einen neu digitalisierten Paneldatensatz über die Gesamtheit der deutschen Frauenwahlrechtsvereine - ein Maß für die Nachfrage anhand offenbarer Präferenzen, angesichts der beträchtlichen Kosten für den Unterhalt eines Vereins, insbesondere unter den kriegsbedingten Einschränkungen des politischen Aktivismus. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Frauen in Landkreisen mit stärkerer Abwesenheit von Männern eher dazu neigten, Frauenwahlrechtsvereine aufrechtzuerhalten. Dieser Effekt ist vor allem in Regionen zu beobachten, in denen Frauen öffentlich Kriegshilfemaßnahmen leiteten, was darauf hindeutet, dass Eigeninitiative und insbesondere die Erfahrungen von Frauen in sichtbaren Führungsrollen der zentrale Mechanismus sind. Wir zeigen ferner, dass diese Nachfrage nach Repräsentation auch nach der Ausweitung des Wahlrechts anhielt: In Landkreisen mit größerer Abwesenheit von Männern während des Krieges und einem Frauenwahlrechtsverein war die Wahrscheinlichkeit höher, dass Frauen für das Parlament kandidierten und ihre Stimme abgaben. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:344256 |
| By: | Bindler, Anna; Machin, Stephen; Hjalmarsson, Randi; Rubio-Ramos, Melissa |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effect of anti-Irish sentiment on 19th-century English jury decisions in criminal trials from London's Old Bailey. Using surnames to measure perceived ethnicity, Irish named defendants were 3% more likely to be convicted and 16% less likely to receive jury recommendations for mercy. Exploiting variation in expected punishment generated by the abolition of capital punishment, juries are shown to respond differently to extraneous factors when defendants were perceived as Irish. Similar patterns for Irish-named victims further support an interpretation based on ethnic animus. The disparities widened during the Irish Famine migration, and persisted thereafter. |
| Keywords: | Irish;crime;criminal law;discrimination;economic history |
| JEL: | K42 K14 J15 |
| Date: | 2026–09–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:141218 |
| By: | Terenzio Fava (Department of Economics, Society & Politics, Università di Urbino Carlo Bo) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the evolution of referendums in Italy, from the institutional referendum of 1946 to the consultations held in 2026, through a historical and quantitative analysis of electoral results. The study investigates trends in voter turnout, quorum attainment, voting preferences, the main issues submitted to popular consultation, and the role of referendum promoters, highlighting changes in the relationship between citizens, political institutions, and instruments of direct democracy. The findings reveal a progressive decline in participation in abrogative referendums, particularly since the 1990s. Of the 77 abrogative referendum questions examined, only 39 reached the required quorum, while average voter turnout declined from 60.9% before 2000 to 34.4% in the subsequent period. The analysis also suggests that the increasing frequency of consultations, the complexity of certain referendum questions, and the political instrumentalization of referendums have contributed to weakening their effectiveness and their capacity to mobilize citizens. The paper further highlights the contrast between the fundamental role played by referendums in shaping Italy's major civil, social, and institutional transformations and the growing difficulties faced by this instrument in influencing political decision-making. Overall, the study offers a critical reflection on the future of direct democracy in Italy, emphasizing the importance of restoring meaningful popular participation and strengthening the relevance of referendum outcomes within democratic processes. |
| Keywords: | Referendum; Voter Turnout; Quorum; Direct Democracy; Electoral Participation; Italian Republic; Political Institutions; Civil Rights |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:urb:wpaper:26_03 |
| By: | XOCHIQUETZALLI MENDOZA MOLINA (INSTITUTO POLITÉCNICO NACIONAL); Juan Ariosto Palacios Vásquez (INSTITUTO POLITÉCNICO NACIONAL); Antonio Valencia Álvarez (INSTITUTO POLITÉCNICO NACIONAL) |
| Abstract: | The Financial Education (FE), from its origins in the twentieth century to its consolidation in the twenty-first century, can be situated within illustrated stages along a timeline. The premises established by foundational authors are highlighted, while their contributions and limitations are reviewed. The contributions of the pioneers are evaluated, followed by the period characterized by the dissemination of theoretical approaches. A third phase emphasizes the creation of networks committed to the study of substantive inclusion and the development of a theoretical framework.Convergences and divergences among authors are presented. Some identify primarily with investors and businesses, others focus on financing strategies, while additional scholars emphasize access to financial services for vulnerable sectors. The objective was to identify paradigm shifts and the evolution of knowledge generated over nearly half a century during periods of economic crises. The study concludes that Financial Education has been reconfigured, evolving from individualistic techniques and behaviors toward public policies, while recognizing that the design of technological resources alone remains insufficient. It also concludes with the demystification of financial illiteracy as a personal deficiency literat. |
| Keywords: | Irrational Economic Decisions; Social Inclusion; Financial Education; Financial Inclusion; Women?s Financial Empowerment. |
| JEL: | G00 I29 I22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:16017261 |
| By: | Oded Galor (Brown University); Luca Pensieroso (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)); Daniel C. Wainstock (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | How could inequality between social classes have ever persisted during the Malthusian epoch, as affluence led to greater reproductive success, diluting inherited wealth and narrowing disparities over time? This paper uncovers the Paradox of Inequality, establishes its robust theoretical foundations, and provides its resolution. The analysis suggests that elites’ lavish, nonproductive displays of status inadvertently diverted resources from reproduction, limiting the dilution of inherited wealth and sustaining inequality across generations. Ironically, extravagance preserved the wealth it seemed to squander. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, Malthusian Epoch, Conspicuous consumption, Fertility, Paradox |
| JEL: | O10 Z10 |
| Date: | 2026–10–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2026018 |
| By: | Jonathan Federle; Robin Greenwood; Josefin Meyer; Carmen Reinhart; Christoph Trebesch |
| Abstract: | We study how wars and military threats affect financial markets. Leveraging more than 300, 000 monthly price observations since 1822, we create an external currency bond index for more than 90 countries—the EXBI. Using the EXBI, we document large effects of wars on returns and borrowing costs. In a global external bond portfolio, a one-standard-deviation war shock lowers returns by five percentage points. At the country level, wars at home generate sharp losses and increase default risk. Military threats depress bond prices in threatened states, but not in threatening ones, highlighting their role as a channel for geoeconomic coercion. |
| Keywords: | sovereign bond returns; war risk; geopolitical risk; militarized disputes; sovereign default; global financial history; conflict and finance; international capital markets |
| JEL: | F34 G15 H56 N20 E44 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2186 |
| By: | Matías Vernengo (Bucknell University) |
| Abstract: | This paper critically analyzes Geoffrey Hodgson’s definition of heterodox economics as the refutation of the orthodox view that emphasizes utility maximization as its main theoretical core, and his view that it is the fragmentation of heterodox economics that explains its subsidiary role within the profession. Hodgson’s views led to a series of responses, that criticize his definition, but also present significant problems of their own. The limitations of Hodgson and his critics’ views are contrasted with an alternative definition that emphasizes the importance of conflictive distribution and the principle of effective demand in the long run. The idea of a broad tent, from a sociological point of view, does not preclude the need for a clear analytical definition of heterodoxy. The broad tent should be seen as part of a strategy of survival. |
| Keywords: | Economic Methodology; Heterodox Economics |
| JEL: | B4 B5 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:sraffa:023857 |
| By: | Peter Fuleky (University of Hawai‘i at MÄ noa) |
| Abstract: | This chapter surveys a century of time series econometrics, from its statistical foundations to modern, data-rich practice. It traces the field’s major turning points: univariate ARIMA modeling, the rise of vector autoregressions and the identification debates that followed, and the treatment of nonstationarity through unit roots, cointegration, and error correction. Later sections take up volatility and nonlinear modeling, state-space signal extraction, and Bayesian estimation. The chapter then follows the shift to high-dimensional forecasting and real-time nowcasting, and the spread of machine learning into time series workflows. It compares the major approaches on forecasting performance, structural interpretability, and the measurement of uncertainty. The methods that endured answered a concrete empirical need, whether for better out-of-sample forecasts, credible policy analysis, or an honest measure of risk. The chapter closes with lessons from the field’s evolution and an agenda for future research as data and computation expand. |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hae:wpaper:2026-2 |
| By: | Duquennois, Claire; Zeng, Jiangnan |
| Abstract: | Evidence on the media's potential to reduce prejudice is limited. Sesame Street's positive representation of minority characters and working women was distinctive in the media landscape of 1969. Using age and technological variation in broadcast reception, we show that Sesame Street increased political engagement and reduced prejudice decades later. Exposed cohorts in high coverage counties are 4.2 ppts more likely to vote, have lower measures of racial biases, and report more votes for minority and women candidates to the U.S. House by 8.1 and 5.8 ppts respectively. On ballots featuring white men, turnout gains are split between parties. |
| JEL: | J15 J16 L82 D72 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:clefwp:344222 |
| By: | Villalobos López, José Antonio |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the influence of the philosophical principles of thinkers such as Plato, Aristotle, Thomas Aquinas, Locke, Montesquieu, Rousseau, Kant, Smith, Mill, Marx, Keynes, Popper, Rawls and Sen on the shaping of Mexican economic policy during the 2019–2024 presidential term. A qualitative approach involving a literature review and critical-interpretative analysis is employed, combining classical philosophical texts with official documents from the New Economic Policy, structured around five key pillars: democracy, justice, honesty, austerity and well-being. The results show that the public policies and social programmes implemented (including an increase in the number of elderly pensioners and universal grants for state school pupils, amongst others) contributed to a 30 per cent reduction in multidimensional poverty over the period and succeeded in increasing the real minimum wage by 116 per cent. The study demonstrates that the fundamental principles of Mexican economic policy are underpinned by the philosophical reflections of the authors analysed. |
| Keywords: | Economic policy; political economy; political philosophy; public ethics; social justice |
| JEL: | E65 |
| Date: | 2026–10–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:131401 |
| By: | Klaus Wohlrabe; Gerome Wolf |
| Abstract: | Popular music charts changed what they measure when streaming replaced sales. A purchase-based chart records acquisition, and a purchase extinguishes the demand it registers; a streaming chart records use, and every play counts anew. Demand that recurs on a fixed schedule for a fixed repertoire was therefore invisible to the sales-era instrument and fully visible to its successor. Using daily Spotify Top 200 charts for Germany (2017-2025) matched to audio features, and weekly chart data spanning 1977-2025, we show that seasonality in the acoustic character of charted music is a phenomenon of the streaming era: absent before 2015, growing steadily since, and dominated by Christmas. On December 24 streaming volume reached 4.6 times the annual daily mean in 2024, up from 2.9 in 2017, and the charts shift sharply toward high acousticness and low energy. The pattern is selective across twenty holidays: Easter, which shares Christmas's family character, produces no acoustic effect at all, while New Year's Eve moves the charts in the opposite direction. The December peak is carried by a fixed and aging catalog, but age is that catalog's property rather than its cause: on an ordinary day old recordings are less acoustic and more energetic than contemporary releases, so a shift in age composition alone would move December the wrong way. The December component of any series built from these charts therefore reflects the recirculation of a fixed historical catalog rather than contemporary listening, with direct consequences for the seasonal adjustment of music-based sentiment indicators. |
| Keywords: | streaming platforms, digital music markets, chart measurement, seasonality, Spotify, audio features, catalog repertoire |
| JEL: | L82 L86 D12 Z11 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13074 |
| By: | Ismail, Nasrul |
| Abstract: | Routine prison allocation in England and Wales is based on staffing, occupancy and regime, but does not incorporate assaults or self-harm. Using 1, 727 public-sector establishment-years of Ministry of Justice expenditure and safety data from 2009-2010 to 2024-2025, this article examines whether deteriorating conditions were followed by changes in expenditure. Real expenditure per place fell 28.7 per cent by 2016-2017 before recovering, while prisons retained their relative positions. Higher assault rates were associated with increased expenditure in the following year before 2019-2020, but not thereafter; the interaction test did not establish a change between periods. Self-harm showed no statistically detectable association with subsequent expenditure in either period. Routine allocation continued throughout, but did not consistently respond to deteriorating safety conditions. |
| Date: | 2026–10–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:gy8vz_v1 |
| By: | Cao, Gewei (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, Microeconomics & Public Economics); Schmitt, Maximilian L. (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, Microeconomics & Public Economics); Rusch, Hannes (Microeconomics & Public Economics, RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research) |
| Abstract: | Slavery has taken strikingly different forms across human history. One of the sharpest contrasts concerns the fate of the enslaved: some societies were open to the integration of enslaved persons as full members, whereas others held them in permanent bondage. Existing ecological accounts try to explain slavery as a response to conditions favoring surplus production. They predict when slavery may appear, but not whether the enslaved are integrated. We argue that inter-societal conflict closes this gap. We develop a model of institutional adaptation in which societies raid one another for captives, produce a surplus, and then fight to loot that surplus. Three institutions compete: raiding for loot but not for captives, enslaving captives for maximal extraction, and exploiting captives but later integrating them as free members who help defend the surplus. Integration proves adaptive precisely where conflict is intense, because additional defenders are then worth more than the extra surplus that harsher treatment would have yielded; as theproductivity of unfree labor rises, exploitation without integration prevails instead. We assess these ideas against ethnographic data onslaving and conflict available for the Indigenous Peoples of the Pacific Coast of North America. Measuring conflict exposure by the raiding frequency of a society’s neighbors, we indeed observe that greater exposure predicts a higher probability of integrating enslaved persons, a pattern that neither ecology nor cultural affiliation alone can account for. |
| Keywords: | slavery, exploitation, manumission, strong asymmetric dependence, cultural evolution |
| Date: | 2026–10–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umagsb:2026012 |
| By: | Severin Joho; Enzo Rossi |
| Abstract: | We compiled and processed a novel, comprehensive dataset of 1, 063 speeches delivered by high-ranking Swiss National Bank officials between 1928 and 2024. Beyond tracking their quantitative evolution, we conducted an in-depth analysis of the length, readability and thematic content. To ensure robust results, we benchmarked traditional Python-based NLP text mining against generative artificial intelligence using ChatGPT. Our findings highlight four primary policy insights. First, the frequency of annual speeches has followed an upward trajectory since the mid-1950s, accelerating notably after the transition to flexible exchange rates. Second, a clear shift toward brevity is evident. Third, the language has become increasingly accessible since the 1960s. Fourth, inflation has moved to the forefront of the thematic discourse in the era of flexible exchange rates, while cyclical economic development and unemployment have received less emphasis. Finally, we outline key methodological lessons for deploying LLMs to analyze central bank communication, emphasizing the complementary relationship between probabilistic language models and deterministic Python frameworks, while addressing inherent algorithmic pitfalls and identifying critical open questions for future research. |
| Keywords: | Central bank speeches, Linguistic Analysis, Natural Language Processing (NLP), ChatGPT |
| JEL: | E52 E58 D83 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2026-13 |
| By: | Yastrebov, Gordey Dr. (University of Cologne) |
| Abstract: | Religious groups reproduce across generations through childbearing and the transmission of affiliation. I examine how these processes jointly shape religious composition in Germany. A pseudo-prospective design combines repeated cross-sectional surveys of women’s affiliation and fertility with retrospective information on maternal affiliation and adult offspring affiliations from the German Socio-Economic Panel. I reconstruct five-group distributions for women born in 1931-1950 and their offspring, including childless women in the starting population. Under the assumptions linking these sources, fertility differences modify but do not reverse the generational redistribution associated with affiliation transmission. Catholic point estimates indicate partial fertility compensation for transmission losses, whereas Protestant fertility provides little compensation. Lower fertility moderates but does not eliminate unaffiliated gains. Across maternal cohorts, the unaffiliated generational gap narrows as the maternal share rises toward a comparatively stable reconstructed offspring share. Unaffiliated mothers also account for a growing share of unaffiliated offspring. A conditional reconstruction for women born in 1951-1970 yields the same directions in the point estimates under fixed transmission probabilities. The findings quantify the limited extent of fertility compensation in the reconstructed religious reproduction of these cohorts. |
| Date: | 2026–10–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:mdw2c_v1 |
| By: | André Moulin (CPN - Centre Pierre Naville - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne - Université Paris-Saclay, SOPHIAPOL - Sociologie, philosophie et anthropologie politiques - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre) |
| Abstract: | This collection brings together analytical summaries of articles by André Moulin (University of Évry, CPN laboratory) focusing on the characterisation of contemporary capitalism and its possible developments. It brings together critical analyses (Category C and D articles from the research programme ‘Actualisation and Mobilisation of Spinoza in the Humanities and Social Sciences'), the common aim of which is to examine the mechanisms of appropriation of the means of production — a perspective systematically absent from mainstream economic analyses, whether liberal, Marxist or heterodox. All these articles are based on a shift in perspective: whilst the economic tradition – including Marx – centres its analysis on the distribution of surplus value (the division of wages and dividends, the exploitation of labour power), the research programme shifts the focus to the prior and more fundamental question of the acquisition of the means of production. Two pivotal questions underpin this shift: who pays for the means of production? and who appropriates them? The answer that the articles patiently construct is paradoxical: in contemporary capitalism, it is not the one who pays who appropriates them — provided that it is the collective of wage earners. |
| Abstract: | Ce recueil rassemble des résumés analytiques d'articles d'André Moulin (Université d'Évry, laboratoire CPN) portant sur la caractérisation du capitalisme contemporain et ses évolutions possibles. Il regroupe des analyses critiques (articles de catégorie C et D du programme de recherche Actualisation puis mobilisation de Spinoza dans les sciences humaines et sociales) dont l'objet commun est d'examiner les mécanismes d'appropriation des moyens de production — un angle systématiquement absent des analyses économiques dominantes, qu'elles soient libérales, marxistes ou hétérodoxes. L'ensemble de ces articles repose sur un déplacement de regard : là où la tradition économique — Marx inclus — centre l'analyse sur la répartition de la plus-value (partage salaires/dividendes, exploitation de la force de travail), le programme de recherche déplace l'attention vers la question antérieure et plus fondamentale de l'acquisition des moyens de production. Deux questions-pivot structurent ce déplacement : qui paye les moyens de production ? et qui se les approprie ? La réponse que les articles construisent patiemment est paradoxale : dans le capitalisme contemporain, ce n'est pas celui qui paye qui s'approprie — dès lors qu'il s'agit du collectif de salariés. |
| Keywords: | capitalisme, actionnaires, actifs, moyens de production, propriété, appropriation |
| Date: | 2026–05–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05811131 |
| By: | Richard Murphy; Shqiponja Telhaj |
| Abstract: | This paper studies whether governments can change social norms that constrain women’s education and work, and through which mechanism. Albania’s 1967 religion ban, which created the world’s first atheist state, provides an extreme natural experiment: religious practice was outlawed nationwide, but a 1948 classification of historic monuments determined which religious buildings remained standing. We find larger increases in female employment and schooling where no monument survived. The public visibility of the old religious order appears to be the mechanism: effects are largest where no monument remained, smaller with rural-only monuments, and smallest with urban monuments; they also decline as monument count rises, regardless of denomination. We establish how social norms can outlive formal authority. |
| JEL: | J16 N34 Z12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35933 |
| By: | McKeever, Lindsey; Sivits, Sarah; Groskopf, Jessica J. |
| Abstract: | The Nebraska Women in Agriculture program marked 40 years of educating and empowering females in farming, ranching, and agribusiness, with nearly 370 people attending its annual conference on February 20 and 21, 2025, in Kearney. |
| Keywords: | Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nbaece:413212 |
| By: | Nicholas C. Barberis |
| Abstract: | Behavioral finance seeks to improve our understanding of markets, investors, and firms by adopting a psychologically realistic description of how people think. While behavioral finance ideas have been part of human discourse for decades if not centuries, the modern research effort in the field began in the 1980s. Forty years later, behavioral finance is a vibrant area of financial economics. In this article, I explain why by reviewing some of its recent progress. I focus on three topics – beliefs about future earnings, beliefs about future returns, and prospect theory – and on their applications to understanding asset prices and investor behavior. I close by commenting on some new directions in the field – cognitive foundations, non-traditional decision processes, and artificial intelligence. |
| JEL: | G11 G12 G14 G40 G50 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35959 |
| By: | Matus-Lopez, Mauricio; Vega-Rapún, Margarita |
| Abstract: | In many countries, the growth of the private hospital sector coincides with a decline in beds per inhabitant. Spain is no exception, showing one of the lowest relative bed provisions in the EU. This study offers an exploratory analysis of the evolution of private hospital bed provision in Spain and its Autonomous Communities between 1986 and 2018. Using historical hospital catalogs from the Ministry of Health, we conducted graphical and cluster analyses to examine trends and classify regions by the share of private hospital beds. Results indicate a national trend toward fewer beds and a growing presence of the private, mainly for-profit, sector, with notable regional differences such as the Catalan model. This research provides comparative and long-term evidence on structural changes in Spain’s hospital system. |
| Date: | 2026–10–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:49tuw_v1 |
| By: | Bryan T. Kelly; Yinan Su; Chao Zhang |
| Abstract: | Can we explain asset price movements even with ex post observations of their drivers? Reinterpreting Roll’s (1988) AFA Presidential Address, “R2, ” as a modern empirical exercise, we show that conventional macroeconomic, cash-flow, expectations, and flow variables deliver out-of-sample R2 values that are often negative and otherwise below 10% for monthly U.S. equity returns and are unavailable at the daily frequency. We use generative AI to extract newspaper-stated reasons from Wall Street Journal market summaries and filter out price and return language. These reasons explain around 30–40% of daily and monthly returns out of sample. Their content maps to interpretable themes, including corporate news, macroeconomic conditions, monetary policy, sentiment, and geopolitics. |
| JEL: | C45 C49 G1 G14 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35885 |
| By: | Luzega, Anja |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the long-term association between exposure to descendants of guest workers in school and native German students' friendships in adulthood. Beginning in 1955, millions of guest workers migrated to West Germany, resulting in significant demographic shifts. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), this study focuses on Germans who completed secondary school between 1975 and 1990. The results suggest that individuals experiencing inter-ethnic contact in school are more likely to have foreign friends in adulthood, with this association being strongest for individuals who grew up in rural areas. Possible channels are a change in attitudes, likely due to a reduction in prejudice, and sorting into more urban regions with more opportunities for intergroup contact in adulthood. The results indicate that exposure to diversity in school may be associated with lasting differences in attitudes and behavior. |
| Keywords: | immigration, attitudes, school diversity, friendships |
| JEL: | I20 J15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:344213 |