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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | Olivier Gu\'eant |
| Abstract: | This text grew out of a historical introduction initially written for a study of interest rates in cryptocurrency markets. The difficulty of defining a term structure for a currency without a conventional bond market led naturally to a more fundamental question: under what historical conditions does a yield curve become observable at all? Credit existed long before modern money, and interest-bearing loans are documented as early as ancient Mesopotamia. For much of history, the surviving evidence lacks the institutional features that facilitate reliable comparisons of interest rates by maturity: standardised debt instruments, sufficiently homogeneous borrowers, regular issuance over a range of maturities, observable market prices, and liquid secondary markets. We trace the gradual emergence of these conditions from ancient Mesopotamia, Greece, and Rome, through medieval and early modern Europe, to the development of modern sovereign debt markets in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.07958 |
| By: | Miguel Martín-Retortillo (Universidad de Alcalá. Departamento de Economía. Alcalá, Spain); Vicente Pinilla (Universidad de Zaragoza. Departamento de Economía Aplicada e Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón (IA2). Zaragoza, Spain); Jackeline Velazco (Universitat de Girona. Girona, Spain. Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, Departamento de Economía. Perú.); Henry Willebald (Universidad de la República. Instituto de Economía. Uruguay.) |
| Abstract: | Latin American agriculture has been fundamental to understanding the region’s long-run economic development. Historically, both agricultural output and productivity have experienced substantial growth. Divergences in geographical characteristics—such as climate, altitude, and terrain ruggedness—alongside institutional frameworks, agrarian reforms, and varying patterns of integration into global markets, have fostered distinct national experiences and varying degrees of developmental persistence. This work examines these overarching trends in Latin American agriculture from 1870 to 2020, while accounting for country-specific heterogeneities. Factors such as exposure to international markets, technological shifts during the first wave of globalization and the subsequent Green Revolution, institutional transformations, and adaptation to local environmental and geographical conditions have collectively shaped the evolution of Latin American agriculture. |
| Keywords: | Latin American Economic History, Latin American Agriculture, Agricultural TFP |
| JEL: | N56 O13 Q10 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahe:dtaehe:2604 |
| By: | Varela Garcia, Nicolas |
| Abstract: | The development of a modern interbank money market in Spain as a mechanism of liquidity redistribution and a channel of monetary policy transmission dates back to the monetary reforms of the early 1970s. However, Spanish banks recorded traditionally substantial interbank positions. Did the system of interbank relationships play any role in liquidity management before the creation of a proper market? To answer this question, I assembled monthly data about interbank assets and liabilities of Spanish private banks, both at aggregate and bank level, from primary sources from the mid-1950s to the early 1970s. Aggregate data are based on the Statistical Bulletin of theBank of Spain, published since March 1960. Bank-level data have been hand-collected from monthly balance sheets reported by individual banks to the Bank of Spain. These balance sheets, available at the Historical Archive of the Bank of Spain, are used here for the first time for historical research. In the paper I analyze the rising relevance of interbank positions, both domestic and international, between the 1960s and theearly 1970s. I also explore the characteristics and use of interbank positions in a sam-ple of private banks for the period 1954-1969. For that purpose I calculate a set ofindicators that re ect di erences across banks in terms of net position, the share of interbank over total assets, the relevance of interbank liabilities as a source of funding, and the existence of dominant positions in interbank relationships. Finally I test empirically the response of interbank positions to contractionary monetary policy shocks in a cross-section of private banks. The results suggest differential effects depending on the monetary instrument used for policy purposes, the type of banks and their liquiditysituation. |
| Keywords: | Interbank market; Monetary policy; Bank liquidity; Francoist Spain |
| JEL: | E51 E52 G21 N14 |
| Date: | 2026–09–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:whrepe:50765 |
| By: | Qingjie Xia |
| Abstract: | Why China Succeeds offers what no existing book does: a single, unified explanatory framework that traces China's rise from its ancient civilizational foundations to its twenty first century technological ascent. Rather than treating China's success as ideologically exceptional or historically accidental, it reveals the universal institutional logic (regulated social mobility, functional land and taxation systems, and formidable state capability) that has sustained Chinese governance across millennia and powered its modern economic miracle. The book directly challenges Western development orthodoxy by demonstrating that institutions can be built through growth, not before it. For policymakers, scholars, and development practitioners worldwide seeking transferable lessons from the world's most consequential development story, this book provides the most historically grounded, analytically rigorous, and forward-looking account available. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.05804 |
| By: | Horgan, Emma; Kenny, Seán; Lennard, Jason |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the macroeconomic impact of the Irish bank strike of 1966, which led to the closure of the major commercial banks for three months. We collect a variety of new evidence, such as high-frequency macro data, economic forecasts, micro data and narrative sources. Our findings suggest that the bank strike was associated with a shortfall in economic activity that punctuated a decade of robust growth. The qualitative evidence depicts the struggles of households and firms managing a credit crunch, a liquidity shock and rising transaction costs. This case study highlights the importance of banks for economic performance. |
| Keywords: | banks;Ireland;macroeconomy;post-war |
| JEL: | E32 E44 G21 N14 N24 |
| Date: | 2026–09–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140423 |
| By: | Philipp Barteska; Oliver Kim; Nathan Lane; Seung Joo Lee |
| Abstract: | How did geopolitics shape East Asia's economic development? We find that US military procurement during the Vietnam War - a shock which peaked at nearly 3% of South Korean GDP, rivaling the Marshall Plan - catalyzed Korea's export-led industrialization. We construct a new firm-level dataset that matches Korean export records with US procurement contracts awarded between 1965 and 1974 to estimate the causal impact of winning a contract on export performance. A firm winning its first contract raises its likelihood of exporting by 14.7 percentage points and its export value by 40%. Treated firms are more likely to expand into third-country markets and export manufacturing products - and these gains are unlikely to come from business stealing. Finally, we find that US procurement and domestic industrial policy were likely complementary. Our findings reveal a neglected channel through which Cold War geopolitics shaped the East Asian economic miracle. |
| Date: | 2026–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2210 |
| By: | Hidehiko Ichimura (Department of Economics, The University of Arizona and Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo); Yasuyuki Sawada (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo); Yutaro Takayasu (Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University); Mari Tanaka (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo and Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University) |
| Abstract: | When societies transition from hereditary to meritocratic systems, to what extent does educational expansion broaden access to elite positions and change inherited patterns of occupational sorting? We study Japan after the Meiji Restoration, which abolished samurai hereditary privileges in public-sector positions and modernized education. Exploiting cohort-specific discontinuities in access to secondary schooling created by the expansion of public secondary schools, we find that greater access increased elite attainment among both samurai and commoner families, but most additional elites entered sectors historically associated with their family background. Many had non-elite fathers, indicating greater upward intergenerational mobility into elite status. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2026cf1280 |
| By: | Felix Kersting; Iris Wohnsiedler |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how collective bargaining institutions emerged from competition within the labor movement. We draw on newly assembled data on strikes, union membership, and bargaining agreements at the county-occupation level in Imperial Germany around 1900. Three rival factions competed for control of the labor movement: the social-democratic Free Trade Unions, the radical unions, and the moderate unions, divided over whether to confront employers, negotiate with them, or both. The Free Trade Unions struck more effectively than the radical unions and bargained far more than the moderate ones. Instrumenting Free Trade Union strength with distance to their headquarters, we show that stronger organization raised the likelihood that agreements emerged. Strike activity rose ahead of first agreements and fell thereafter. The effect is concentrated in multi-employer agreements with peace obligations, the bargaining form that later defined the German model. Organized employers played little part in this process. Durable bargaining institutions emerged where a movement could both sustain conflict and commit to settling it. |
| Date: | 2026–09–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0108 |
| By: | Aidt, T. S. |
| Abstract: | This chapter explores the process of democratization throughout history, examining how modern democratic governance gradually emerged and evolved. It reviews key theoretical frameworks, such as bottom-up and top-down democratization theories. The chapter emphasizes the role of international interdependencies and highlights how economic integration, international trade, diffusion of democratic ideas and of contention, and external threats and foreign interventions shape political transitions across countries. By examining multiple waves of democratization, the chapter provides insights into how both domestic and international factors contributed to the global spread of democracy and to democratic reversals. |
| Keywords: | Democratization, Constitutional Bargaining, Threat of Revolution, International Diffusion, Economic Integration, External Threats, Foreign Intervention |
| Date: | 2026–09–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2674 |
| By: | Gachet, Nicholas |
| Abstract: | Stunting remains a major development challenge in many countries, including Ecuador. In this paper, I examine whether agrarian reform policies implemented during the 1960s and 1970s help explain long-run patterns of child stunting. The Ecuadorian reform relied on two distinct land allocation strategies: Public land transfers (PLT), designed to promote frontier settlement, and expropriation, aimed at redistributing land from large estates. Combining household survey data with historical maps and administrative records, I estimate the longrun relationship between these policies and child stunting by exploiting historical variation in land allocation across parishes. I find that areas exposed to PLT exhibit significantly lower rates of child stunting, while expropriation shows no robust association. Across specifications, PLT exposure is associated with stunting rates that are 3-17 percent lower relative to the mean. Cohort evidence further indicates that the relationship is stronger for mothers plausibly exposed to PLT during early childhood. Consistent with this pattern, mothers from more exposed PLT cohorts attained higher levels of education, suggesting that maternal human capital may be one channel linking frontier settlement policies to lower child stunting. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:343612 |
| By: | Dezhbakhsh, Hashem; Levy, Daniel |
| Abstract: | It is well established that the U.S. prewar output was more volatile and less shock-persistent than the postwar output. This is often attributed to the data interpolation employed to construct the prewar series, rather than the postwar stabilization policies and institutional changes. Our analytical results, however, indicate that commonly used linear interpolation has the opposite effect on shock persistence and volatility of a series—it reduces short-run volatility and raises shock persistence. Therefore, interpolation does not seem to explain away the observed gaps between the volatility and shock persistence of the prewar and postwar series. If anything, it may hide part of the true gap. Consequently, our results strengthen the case that the prewar-postwar difference reflects real economic changes rather than interpolation, leaving stabilization policies and institutional changes as possible explanations. Our results hold for parsimonious stationary and nonstationary time series commonly used to model macroeconomic data. Our theoretical finding is also supported by a counterfactual empirical exercise we conduct using U.S. postwar series |
| Keywords: | Business Cycles, Output Volatility, Shock Persistence, Prewar vs Poswar Time Series, Linear Interpolation, Variance Ratio, Stationary Series, Nonstationary Series, Periodic Nonstationarity, Missing Observations, Macroeconomic Stabilization, Economic Policy |
| JEL: | E32 E01 N10 C02 C18 C22 C82 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:343604 |
| By: | Marc-Antoine Faure; César Ducruet |
| Abstract: | Container shipping has become a cornerstone of global supply chains, regional integration, and port-city development. The globalization of trade and, at the same time, the increased vulnerability of supply chains have created a more efficient yet fragile system. In this chapter, using a unique dataset of more than four million ship movements, we uncover the local and global dynamics of container flows. Starting in the 1970s, with the diffusion of container technology in international trade, we analyse fifty years of global trade through the lens of network structures and community detection. We document (i) an almost continuous expansion in nodes and links with improving topological efficiency up to the mid-2010s, followed by (ii) the consequences of recent shocks, such as COVID-19, Red Sea disruptions, and the Panama Canal drought, which highlights the vulnerability of the container shipping network. Using single linkage analysis, we also show the evolution of trade dependencies, the emergence of China particularly towards Africa over the last decade, and the persistence of certain port systems such as the European system around Rotterdam. We open a new avenue of research by combining global and local, systemic and long-term quantitative analyses to understand the dynamics of international trade. |
| Keywords: | complex networks; international trade; container shipping |
| JEL: | F14 R40 L91 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2026-19 |
| By: | O'Connor, Kelsey (STATEC Research – National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies) |
| Abstract: | The Easterlin Paradox refers to the apparent contradiction between the cross-sectional and time-series relationships between GDP per capita and evaluative happiness – at a point in time, countries with greater GDP per capita are on average happier, but over time, long-run GDP growth does not correlate meaningfully with long-run happiness growth. Yet not everyone agrees. After more than fifty years since Easterlin's original article, the Paradox remains controversial and is frequently misunderstood. This article reviews the evolution of the Easterlin Paradox and briefly discusses its modern definition, explanations, best practices for testing, empirical extensions, and common misconceptions and critiques, with particular attention on methodology. Recent evidence indicates there is a broad range of long-run happiness changes, but these changes do not meaningfully correlate with long-run GDP growth rates, even in less developed countries. The implications are part of why the Paradox is so controversial. Economic growth alone does not constitute development or societal progress. In Easterlin’s words, it is time to move on [beyond GDP] and discover what explains why happiness grew in some countries and not others. |
| Keywords: | Easterlin Paradox, economic growth, income, happiness, life satisfaction, subjective well-being, development |
| JEL: | I31 D60 O10 O5 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18874 |
| By: | Pesaran, M. H.; Smith, R. |
| Abstract: | The economic challenges facing the Iranian economy have acquired new dimensions since the wars following the Israeli attack on Iran in June 2025, the further US-Israel attacks in February 2026 and the continued US-Iran conflict over control of shipping in the Persian Gulf. This paper begins with a historical overview of the Iranian macro economy since the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran following the February 1979 Revolution, with particular emphasis on the evolution of output, inflation and the exchange rates. It then examines the current economic conditions and discusses possible developments and commensurate policy responses. Our central scenario is a relatively positive one, in which military engagement ends and is replaced by a state of non-aggression, a continued hostile truce. In these circumstances, with appropriate policies, inflation may be reduced from its recent high levels with modest expansion of output. However, there are more negative scenarios that involve continued military engagement and a siege economy. There is concern in Iran that inflation, which has been persistent and tending to rise over time, will take off into hyperinflation. We examine this possibility, bearing in mind the resources (domestic and international) required to finance the massive reconstruction program needed to repair the wartime damage. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomic Effects of Sanctions, Exchange Rate, Inflation and Output, Hyperinflation, Islamabad Memorandum, Policy Options |
| JEL: | E66 F68 G22 |
| Date: | 2026–08–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2672 |
| By: | Fern\'andez Salguero; Ricardo Alonzo |
| Abstract: | This article evaluates whether the exceptionally rapid growth of the Russian and Soviet economy after 1928 requires a specifically Stalinist explanation. The analysis treats this historical question as a sequence of increasingly demanding counterfactual comparisons rather than a binary comparison between observed growth and a single alternative. Long run output series from the Global Macro Database and the Maddison Project are combined with synthetic control, augmented synthetic control, synthetic difference in differences, interactive factor models, matrix completion, prediction benchmarks, historical analogues, spatial and temporal placebos, donor pool perturbations, endpoint sensitivity, and independent Soviet national account reconstructions. A key methodological contribution is a revised New Economic Policy counterfactual. Instead of extrapolating the rapid recovery observed from 1922 to 1928, the analysis models the recovery gap as a bootstrap process anchored to the pre 1914 trend and calibrated using the observed postwar closure of the Russian output gap. The Russian core estimates exceed the median admissible frontier at every endpoint and surpass the main 90th percentile frontier from the mid 1930s onward, whereas the broader Soviet territorial aggregate remains more conservative. Donor perturbations preserve a positive Russian core premium, but the limited placebo sample, imperfect pretreatment fit, recovery related false positives, source dependence, and hostile upper bounds prevent strong claims of historical necessity. The evidence supports a conditional growth premium but does not identify Stalin as the only institutionally feasible path. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.00418 |
| By: | Min, Yi (University of Birmingham); Elliott, Robert J.R. (University of Birmingham); Melander, Eric (University of Birmingham, CAGE) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we document how deep-seated cultural norms result in unintended demographic responses to two reforms in China: (1) the One-Child Policy and (2) land reform under the Household Responsibility System. Constructing and validating an index of historical patriarchal norms based on soil suitability for plough use and combining this with fertility and sex ratio data, we estimate the heterogeneous impacts of the reforms in a difference-in-differences framework. Results show that in counties characterised by strong patriarchy, where son preference is plausibly higher, families with a firstborn girl resisted population control and saw smaller decreases in second-child fertility after the implementation of the One-Child Policy. Moreover, land reform heightened the male-bias in the second-child sex ratio among firstborn-girl families, resulting in approximately 0.89 million missing girls in high-patriarchy counties as a result of norms-induced sex selection. Our results reveal an enduring legacy of historical norms and the importance of cultural forces as drivers of gender (in)equality. |
| Keywords: | Patriarchal norms, son preference, One-Child Policy, land reform. JEL Classification: J13, J16, N35, O15, Q18, Z13 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:823 |
| By: | Otto, Stephan |
| Abstract: | Der Beitrag untersucht den bislang kaum erforschten Rundbrief für Kindergärtnerinnen der Nationalsozialistischen Volkswohlfahrt (NSV) als organisationsinternes Kommunikations- und Steuerungsmedium des nationalsozialistischen Kindergartenwesens. Im Mittelpunkt steht die Frage, welche pädagogischen, fachlichen und ideologischen Leitvorstellungen über die Publikation vermittelt wurden. Zunächst wird der Rundbrief quellenkritisch hinsichtlich seiner Entstehung, Verbreitung und Funktion eingeordnet. Darauf aufbauend werden die Inhaltsverzeichnisse der zwischen 1938 und 1943 erschienenen Ausgaben systematisch ausgewertet, um thematische Schwerpunkte und Entwicklungen zu rekonstruieren. Ergänzend werden ausgewählte Beiträge und ihre Autor:innen exemplarisch analysiert, um die Verflechtung pädagogischer Argumentationen mit nationalsozialistischen Erziehungs- und Gesellschaftsvorstellungen herauszuarbeiten. Der Beitrag leistet damit einen ersten quellenkritischen Zugang zu einer bislang kaum beachteten Quelle der bildungshistorischen Forschung und erweitert die Perspektive auf die Rolle interner Fachkommunikation bei der ideologischen Ausrichtung frühpädagogischer Praxis im Nationalsozialismus. |
| Abstract: | This article examines the largely unexplored Rundbrief für Kindergärtnerinnen (Newsletter for Kindergarten Teachers), an internal publication of the National Socialist People's Welfare Organization (NSV), as an organizational instrument of communication and control within the National Socialist kindergarten system. It explores the pedagogical, professional, and ideological concepts conveyed through the publication. First, the newsletter is critically examined as a historical source with regard to its origin, dissemination, and function. Subsequently, the tables of contents of all available issues published between 1938 and 1943 are systematically analyzed to reconstruct thematic priorities and developments over time. In addition, selected articles and their authors are examined to explore the interconnections between pedagogical arguments and National Socialist educational and ideological principles. By providing the first critical analysis of this largely neglected source, the article contributes to the historiography of early childhood education and offers new insights into the role of internal professional communication in the ideological orientation of early childhood educational practice under National Socialism. |
| Keywords: | NS-Pädagogik, historische Bildungsforschung, Kindergarten, frühkindliche Bildung, Ideologie |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iubhso:343587 |
| By: | Guo Xu |
| Abstract: | The study of bureaucracy as a key dimension of state capacity has gained increasing attention in economics. What organizational features create an effective bureaucracy, however, remains subject to debate. This paper focuses on the central role of civil service protections in delineating the boundary between politics and administration. I introduce a simple principal-agent framework to discuss the key theoretical channels through which political insulation can shape bureaucrat performance. Guided by the framework, I establish stylized facts and organize evidence from historical and contemporary civil service reforms. Overall, the micro-level evidence documents a positive effect of civil service protections on the quality of public service delivery. I conclude with open questions about the political economy of reform adoption. |
| JEL: | D73 M50 P0 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35568 |
| By: | Jean-Paul K. Tsasa |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cvi:wpaper:2026-002-01 |
| By: | Florian Grosset-Touba; Anna Papp; Charles A. Taylor |
| Abstract: | Human actions can alter the climate via land use. We analyze the 1930s Great Plains Shelterbelt, a large-scale forestation program across the US Midwest. The program increased precipitation and decreased temperatures for decades. We measure these changes in downwind counties where no trees were planted, isolating the effects of climate from those of afforestation and enabling us to study adaptation. Improved growing conditions allowed farmers to expand corn acreage and adopt water-intensive practices. In a period of farm consolidation, this altered the structure of the agricultural sector, contributing to the survival of small farms but less farm machine usage. The findings demonstrate the endogeneity of climate to land use change and the long-term impacts of tree planting on agricultural development. |
| JEL: | N5 O13 Q1 Q5 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35695 |
| By: | Ying Bai; Xiaoyu Bian; Ruixue Jia |
| Abstract: | Transportation networks often radiate from national capitals, reflecting political priorities as much as economic logic. How costly is infrastructure built for politics rather than markets? We study China’s Grand Canal: when the Mongols moved the capital from the central plain to Beijing, the canal followed, bypassing the economic core it once served. Using a grid-year panel spanning five dynasties (8th–19th centuries), we show the route best suited to reach the capital predicts the canal’s actual path. This redesign reshaped market access and, through it, population. Counterfactual analysis shows the canal raised population by 2.5–6.1%, but its politically motivated redesign cost 1.1–2.2%. |
| JEL: | N45 N75 O18 R12 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35721 |
| By: | Adrien Jean-Guy Passant (Université Paris-Saclay, ISTEC - Institut supérieur des Sciences, Techniques et Economie Commerciales - ISTEC) |
| Abstract: | Cet article explore la diffusion de la pensée managériale en contexte colonial, à travers la formation comptable développée en Indochine dans les années 1920-1930. Il analyse les manuels de l'époque pour éclairer le rôle des « comptables colonisés » dans l'impérialisme occidental. En recontextualisant cet enseignement, l'étude enrichit l'histoire de la pensée managériale (HPM) et ouvre des pistes pour sa décolonisation. |
| Keywords: | Colonialisme; école de commerce; histoire de la gestion |
| Date: | 2025–06–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05714737 |
| By: | Jason Paul Bonham (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Ken Smith; Tim A. Bruckner |
| Abstract: | This study considers the relation between institutional adaptation and long-term behavioral change. Often, behavioral interventions weaken over time as prior norms reemerge. As a contradictory case, we focus on the practice of tobacco abstention within the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. Although originally taught in 1833, tobacco abstention was not standardized until a 1921 requirement of tobacco abstention for Latter-day Saint temple participation, a powerful symbol of collective attachment. Drawing from this narrative, we offer an analytic framework called symbolic resonance (SR) that accounts for how behaviors embedded within symbolically resonant institutions can promote durable normative change. We then compare this case to broader U.S. tobacco trends to illustrate SR's diagnostic value. As an empirical demonstration, we compare changes in tobacco-related health outcomes both before and after the 1921 ban by temple participation utilizing the Utah Population Database. We find that tobacco-related health advantages were confined to later cohorts who engaged in temple rituals. These results suggest that institutions may influence behavior durability when expectations are paired with symbols. SR provides analytic leverage for understanding connections between organization, individual behavior, and health beyond the Latter-day Saint case. |
| Keywords: | Utah, mortality, religious institutions, smoking |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2026-037 |
| By: | Yi-You Yang |
| Abstract: | Sequential-entry procedures need not reach every stable matching. We ask whether full reachability is restored when agents on both sides may enter and exit repeatedly, with proposal-chain restabilization after each population change. It is not: a three-by-three marriage market has a stable matching that is unreachable from the empty active market along any such history restricted to terminal agents. We then allow temporary historical agents who are absent at the terminal date. For every target stable matching, we construct a target-dependent, preference-preserving augmentation and an admissible history that reaches it, with all temporary agents exiting before termination. The construction extends to many-to-one markets with responsive hospital preferences. Thus reachability depends on the admissible history class. Terminal-agent histories may select a proper subset of the stable set, whereas preference-preserving augmented histories recover the full stable set. When such augmented histories are admissible but past participants are unobserved, the terminal primitives alone do not exclude any stable matching. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.20176 |
| By: | Arold, B. W.; Monteiro, A. A.; Yannelis, C. |
| Abstract: | This paper studies whether school prayer and Bible reading affect adult beliefs and behavior. We exploit the U.S. Supreme Court’s early-1960s school-prayer decisions, which removed these practices only from states where they were still legal. Linking this state-by-cohort variation to adult outcomes in the General Social Survey, we estimate the long-run effects of removing school prayer on religiosity, family formation, labor-market outcomes, gender attitudes, and social views. The abolition of school prayer lowers adult religiosity; reduces marriage and fertility; increases employment; and shifts gender and selected social attitudes in a less traditional direction. The employment effect is driven by women, and may operate partly through decreased full-time homemaking and less traditional gender roles. A decomposition indicates that school prayer bans explain more than half the decline in American religious attendance, and roughly one quarter of the decline in fertility and rise in female labor force participation. The findings show that even brief daily devotional practices in childhood can shape adult beliefs, family life, and economic behavior. |
| Keywords: | School Prayer, Religious Education, Religiosity, Childhood Socialization, Family Formation, Female Labor Supply |
| JEL: | Z12 I21 J12 J16 |
| Date: | 2026–08–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2673 |
| By: | Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Christian Pierdzioch (Department of Economics, Helmut Schmidt University, Holstenhofweg 85, P.O.B. 700822, 22008 Hamburg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Much significant recent research has shed light on how presidential pressure on the Federal Reserve affects key macroeconomic and financial variables. We contribute to this mushrooming research from a political-economy perspective. Specifically, we find, based on monthly data from 1980 to 2026, that the U.S. presidential pressure on the Federal Reserve predicts a lower subsequent presidential approval ratings. We derive this empirical finding by means of random forests, a machine-learning technique, that renders it possible to control for several important macroeconomic and financial variables. We find that the link between presidential pressure and subsequent presidential approval ratings is nonlinear and that the importance of presidential pressure on the Federal Reserve for presidential approval ratings has increased strongly during the first and second presidency of Donald J. Trump. |
| Keywords: | Skewness, Presidential approval ratings, Political pressure, Federal Reserve, Random forests |
| JEL: | D72 E40 E50 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202624 |