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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | McLaughlin, Eoin; Sharp, Paul; Skovsgaard, Christian; Vedel, Christian |
| Abstract: | Agricultural cooperation is seen as a way to solve collective action problems and has been associated with high social capital and other beneficial impacts in the countryside beyond productivity increases. But what if it comes into conflict with existing private concerns? The Irish dairy cooperatives from the 1890s entered a contested market for milk, and soon became associated with various degrees of conflict: legal disputes and physical violence. We hypothesize that this led to poor social capital, manifesting in conflict during the Irish War of Independence. We analyze novel data on cooperative and private creameries, as well as measures of conflict. Our findings indicate a significant positive correlation between the presence of cooperatives and local conflict intensities, persisting even after controlling for various confounders. An instrumental variable approach based on prior specialization in dairying validates this. Cooperation might thus both reflect social capital but also have pernicious impacts on it. |
| Keywords: | Ireland; Cooperatives |
| JEL: | N53 N54 Q13 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19714 |
| By: | Ma, Debin; Rubin, Jared |
| Abstract: | This paper revisits the old theses of the contrasting paths to modernization between Japan and China. It develops a new analytical framework regarding the role of ideology and ideological change—Meiji Japan’s decisive turn towards the West pitted against Qing China’s lethargic response to Western imperialism—as the key driver behind these contrasting paths. Our framework and historical narrative highlight the contrast between Tokugawa Japan’s feudal, decentralized political regime and Qing China’s centralized bureaucratic system as a key determinant driving the differential patterns of ideological realignment. We argue that the 1894-95 Japanese naval victory over China could not be justified under the prevailing Imperial Chinese ideology and thus served as the catalyst for China’s subsequent ideological transformation, which occurred via borrowing Japan’s successful Meiji reforms of both institutions and ideology. Our analytical framework, developed from a comparative historical narrative, sheds new insights on the importance of ideology and ideological change for our understanding of political and economic change. |
| Keywords: | China; Japan; Economic development |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19573 |
| By: | Lagakos, David; Michalopoulos, Stelios; Voth, Hans-Joachim |
| Abstract: | What does it take to live a meaningful life? We exploit a unique corpus of over 1, 400 life narratives of older Americans collected by a team of writers during the 1930s. We combine detailed human readings with large language models (LLMs) to extract systematic information on critical junctures, sources of meaning, and overall life satisfaction. Under specific conditions, LLMs can provide responses to complex questions that are indistinguishable from those of human readers, effectively passing a version of the Turing Test. We find that sources of life meaning are more varied than previous research suggested, underlining the importance of work and community contributions in addition to family and close relationships (emphasized by earlier work). The narratives also highlight gendered disparities, with women disproportionately citing adverse family events, such as the loss of a parent, underscoring their role as keepers of the kin. Our research expands our understanding of human flourishing during a transformative period in American history and establishes a robust and scalable framework for exploring subjective well-being across diverse historical and cultural contexts. |
| Keywords: | Text analysis; Narratives; Life satisfaction |
| JEL: | I00 I31 N32 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19885 |
| By: | Goodhart, C. A. E.; Postel-Vinay, Natacha |
| Abstract: | The City of Glasgow Bank failure in 1878, which led to large numbers of unlimited liability shareholders becoming insolvent, generated great public concern about their plight, and led directly to the 1879 Companies Act, which paved the way for the adoption of limited liability for all shareholders, including senior executives. In this article, we focus on the question of why the opportunity was not taken to assign greater liability to ‘insiders’, i.e. those with direct access to information and power over decisions, than to ‘outsiders’ lacking both. We analyse parliamentary and public debates ahead of the passage of the bill, and find that such issues were raised and discussed at the time, but arguments in support of equal shareholder treatment won out. By showing the weak foundations of those arguments, we suggest that an alternative, tiered-liability path could (and should) have been taken, with potentially significant implications for contemporary prudential policy. |
| Keywords: | corporate governance;limited liability;tiered liability;bank risk-taking;financial regulation;financial crises;executive incentives |
| JEL: | G21 G28 G30 G32 G39 N23 K22 K29 L20 |
| Date: | 2026–07–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138733 |
| By: | Klein, Alexander; Meissner, Christopher |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between tariffs and labor productivity in US manufacturing between 1870 and 1909. Using highly dis-aggregated tariff data, state-industry data for the manufacturing sector, and a novel identification strategy, results show that tariffs reduced labor productivity. Tariffs also generally reduced the average size of establishments within an industry but raised output prices, value-added, gross output, employment, and the number of establishments. We also find evidence of heterogeneity in the association between tariffs and value added, gross output, employment, and establishments across groups of industries. We conclude that tariffs may have reduced labor productivity in manufacturing by weakening import competition and by inducing entry of smaller, less productive domestic firms. Our research also reveals that lobbying by powerful and productive industries may have been at play. The era’s high tariffs are unlikely to have helped the US become a globally competitive manufacturer. |
| Keywords: | Tariffs; Labor productivity |
| JEL: | F13 F15 N11 O14 O47 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19619 |
| By: | Campbell, Gareth; Gallagher, Ã ine; Grossman, Richard |
| Abstract: | Substantial amounts of British capital flowed to Latin America during the first era of globalisation. Companies financed by this capital were typically headquartered in the UK, but operated thousands of miles away. This paper asks how this geographic separation between governance and business activities affected the valuation of these firms. We find that the location of the headquarters played a more important role than the location of operations. Stock prices tended to fluctuate in line with other equities based in the UK, suggesting that they were still regarded as being, at least partially, British companies. |
| Keywords: | Emerging markets |
| JEL: | F21 F54 F65 G11 G12 G15 G51 N16 N26 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19799 |
| By: | Airoldi, Anna; Moser, Petra |
| Abstract: | How does a person’s childhood socioeconomic status (SES) influence their chances to participate and succeed in science? To investigate this question, we use machine-learning methods to link scientists in a comprehensive biographical dictionary, the American Men of Science (1921), with their childhood home in the US Census and with publications. First, we show that children from low-SES homes were already severely underrepresented in the early 1900s. Second, we find that SES influences peer recognition, even conditional on participation: Scientists from high-SES families have 38% higher odds of becoming stars, controlling for age, publications, and disciplines. Using live-in servants as an alternative measure for SES confirms the strong link between childhood SES and becoming a star. Applying text analysis to assign scientists to disciplines, we find that mathematics is the only discipline in which SES influences stardom through the number and the quality of a scientist’s publications. Using detailed data on job titles to distinguish academic from industry scientists, we find that industry scientists have lower odds of being stars. Controlling for industry employment further strengthens the link between childhood SES and stardom. Elite undergraduate degrees explain more of the correlation between SES and stardom than any other control. At the same time, controls for birth order, family size, foreign-born parents, maternal education, patents, and connections with existing stars leave estimates unchanged, highlighting the importance of SES. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19572 |
| By: | Ma, Debin |
| Abstract: | Lu Xun (1881-1936), regarded as the single most important and influential writer of modern China and East Asia, is surprisingly little-known in the West. His stories and personalities - now household names and symbols - had touched the nerves of a once profound nation caught in the depth of an identity crisis faced with decline and collapse. Through an analysis of “The Diary of a Madman†, “Medicine†and the characters of Ah-Q, Kong Yiji and Runtu in his collection of stories “Scream†, this paper unveils Lu Xun’s penetrating insights on the complexity and nuance of culture as both determinants and impediments to social and economic transformation at historical crossroads. I show that theoretical framework of political economy and economics of identity are of particular relevance in understanding Lu Xun’s penetrating and satirical critique on the paradoxical aspect of how the Chinese elites and masses both exploit and are exploited by traditional Chinese ideology. This paper concludes that Lu Xun - as a writer and a concept – remains highly relevant for understanding China’s past, present and future. |
| JEL: | N0 B30 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19577 |
| By: | Guiso, Luigi; Sapienza, Paola; Zingales, Luigi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how the concept of embedded culture played a transformative role in the ongoing cultural revolution within economics and business. We trace the field's shift from the 20th-century concept of homo economicus universalis to an approach incorporating cultural embeddedness in economic behavior. Beyond documenting this intellectual transformation, we identify fertile areas for future research and explore how an embedded cultural perspective can enhance both our understanding of economic phenomena and the design of effective policies. |
| JEL: | Z1 D21 M14 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19798 |
| By: | Colantone, Italo; Ottaviano, Gianmarco; Takeda, Kohei |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of globalization on intergenerational income mobility. Exploiting U.S. data, we find that stronger trade exposure at the commuting zone level lowers the intergenerational income mobility of residents. In particular, higher exposure to Chinese import competition lowers the income mobility of the cohort of U.S. workers born in 1980-1982. We present a general equilibrium theory in which path dependence in sector choice of individuals over generations and mobility frictions determine the dynamics of industrial compositions across locations in a country. The theory predicts that rising import competition reduces intergenerational income mobility, consistent with the empirical findings. |
| Keywords: | Import competition |
| JEL: | F1 F14 F16 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19770 |
| By: | Abramitzky, Ran; Greska, Lena; Pérez, Santiago; Price, Joseph; Schwarz, Carlo; Waldinger, Fabian |
| Abstract: | We explore how socio-economic background shapes academia, collecting the largest dataset of U.S. academics’ backgrounds and research output spanning seven decades. We find that individuals from poorer backgrounds are severely underrepresented, especially in the humanities and at elite universities. The socio-economic composition of academics has remained remarkably constant over time. Father’s occupation predicts professors’ discipline choice and, thus, the direction of research. While we find no differences in the average number of publications, academics from poorer backgrounds are both more likely to not publish at all and to have outstanding publication records, making them riskier hires. Academics from poorer backgrounds also introduce more novel scientific concepts, but are less likely to receive recognition, as measured by citations and Nobel Prize nominations and awards. |
| Keywords: | Science; Academia |
| JEL: | O30 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19814 |
| By: | Romain Capliez; Carl Grekou; Emmanuel Hache; Valérie Mignon |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the historical determinants of real mineral commodity prices using a structurally identified vector autoregression (SVAR) with incomplete identification. Drawing on a large sample of mineral commodities covering more than a century of data, we identify supply, aggregate demand, and metal-specific demand shocks using economically motivated prior distributions. Historical decompositions show that price fluctuations are predominantly driven by demand-side forces, with metal-specific demand shocks accounting for the largest share of variation. Aggregate demand shocks also play an important role, particularly during periods of global instability, while the contribution of supply shocks is more limited and tends to decline over time. Elasticity estimates indicate that prices respond more strongly and more persistently to demand shocks than to supply shocks, whereas supply responses remain weak in the short run. We also document substantial heterogeneity across mineral commodities and over time, reflecting differences in adjustment mechanisms across markets. Overall, our findings highlight the central role of demand in mineral commodity price formation and provide little support for the view that increasing scarcity has been the dominant force shaping observed price dynamics over the period considered. Instead, fluctuations in mineral commodity prices appear to be primarily driven by demand-side factors rather than by tightening supply conditions. |
| Keywords: | Mineral Commodities;Commodity Price Dynamics;Resource Scarcity;Structural VAR;Historical Decomposition |
| JEL: | Q31 Q32 C32 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2026-06 |
| By: | Beltrán Tapia, Francisco; Marco-Gracia, Francisco J. |
| Abstract: | Given names hide crucial information about cultural attitudes and beliefs that sheds light on how parents raised their children and the importance they attached to education and other values. Relying on the 1860 Population census for the province of Zaragoza (Spain; almost 400, 000 observations), this article shows that naming practices, captured by whether children bear more or less common names and/or were named after their parents, help predicting their educational outcomes, even after controlling for a host of individual-, household- and community-level confounders. Crucially, these results differ by sex, birth-order, socio-economic status and the urban-rural divide, which allows identifying the mechanisms in place. In particular, bearing a common name is negatively associated with the likelihood of girls attending school and being literate in rural areas. By contrast, being named after parents had a positive influence on boys' education, a pattern that is especially visible for the eldest son from families who have access to land. In addition, the results reported here are stronger in more complex household arrangements. These results therefore stress the role played by inheritance customs and the continuity of the family line on both naming practices and the way that parents allocated resources between their siblings, as well as highlighting the different expectations around the role that sons and daughters played in these societies. |
| Keywords: | Culture; Education; Literacy |
| JEL: | N13 I20 I25 O10 Z10 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19625 |
| By: | David Card; Ciprian Domnisoru; Seth Sanders; Lowell Taylor; Victoria Udalova |
| Abstract: | We document an enduring influence of female primary school teachers on their female students in rural America circa 1940. Using historical US Census data linked to IRS records, later censuses, and death records, we find that exposure to female teachers significantly improved girls’ educational attainment—particularly among those with poorly-educated parents and in areas with limited labor market opportunities for women. These educational gains translated into delayed marriage and childbearing, marriage matches to better-educated husbands and higher household income. We also find that exposure to female teachers increased longevity of women relative to men. |
| Keywords: | Female Teachers; Education and Gender Equality; Education and Mortality |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:26-39 |
| By: | Braghieri, Luca; Eichmeyer, Sarah |
| Abstract: | Can teaching the history of authoritarian regimes built on extreme ideology lastingly reduce support for those ideologies? We leverage a natural experiment in Germany where the senior high school history curriculum exogenously alternated covering, across cohorts, the communist German Democratic Republic and fascist Nazi Germany. Data collected a decade post-graduation reveals that studying the GDR rather than the Nazi regime increases knowledge about the GDR and reduces support for extreme left-wing ideology. The treatment does not increase support for extreme right-wing ideology on average, but does so in more right-leaning regions, highlighting substitutabilities of the production function of extreme ideology. |
| Keywords: | Education; Political ideology; History; Schooling curricula |
| JEL: | P00 I21 I28 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19575 |
| By: | Bonadio, Barthelemy; Levchenko, Andrei; Rohner, Dominic; Thoenig, Mathias |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates and quantifies the impact of the diaspora remittance flows on the conflict intensity and outcomes in the Sri Lankan Civil War during the period 1996-2009. We develop an approach to infer which remittance inflows were likely to benefit the Tamil Tiger rebels relative to the central government based on Facebook connections data at the subnational level. Using shocks to source country remittance outflows, we show that exogenous increases in remittances accessible to the Tamil Tigers significantly increased their fighting strength. We then set up a quantitative model of two-sided armed conflict over many contested geographic locations, augmented with remittance flows that affect the fighting strengths of the two sides. We structurally estimate the key parameters using remittance and conflict data, and calibrate the model to the Sri Lankan subdistricts over the period of the conflict. Our main quantitative finding is that remittances had a significant impact on the timing of the central government victory, and were a substantially more important component of the military strength of the Tamil Tigers than of the government. Remittances that favored the Tamil Tiger rebels may have prolonged the war by as much as 14 years. |
| Keywords: | Conflict; Remittances |
| JEL: | F24 D74 O53 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19618 |
| By: | Bühler, Jonas (Institute for Swiss Economic Policy at the University of Lucerne); Davis, Jonathan (University of Oregon); Häner-Müller, Melanie (Institute for Swiss Economic Policy at the University of Lucerne); Mazumder, Bhashkar (University of California, Irvine); Schaltegger, Christoph (Institute for Swiss Economic Policy at the University of Lucerne) |
| Abstract: | We provide a comparative analysis of inequality of opportunity for children’s future success in Switzerland and the United States during an era of rising global inequality. Leveraging Swiss administrative earnings data and U.S. survey data, we estimate sibling correlations for cohorts entering the labor market in the early 1970s and early 1980s in the two countries. We find a sharp rise in sibling correlations and income inequality in the United States during the 1980s similar to Davis & Mazumder (2026) who study intergenerational income mobility. However, we find that both inequality and inequality of opportunity in Switzerland remained remarkably stable. Sibling correlations in long-run income consistently hovered below 15% across both cohorts in Switzerland, whereas in the United States they nearly doubled, from 15.4% to 30.6%. These findings thus position Switzerland as a salient counterfactual to the U.S. case. |
| Keywords: | inequality of opportunity, income inequality, social mobility, time trends, sibling correlation |
| JEL: | D63 I30 J62 J12 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18764 |
| By: | Jacks, David; Meissner, Christopher; Wolf, Nikolaus |
| Abstract: | For all its importance, there still is no comprehensive quantitative assessment of the Suez Canal’s opening in 1869. We find that it led to a 72% relative increase in bilateral exports for affected country pairs and a likely permanent increase in world trade. With respect to the composition of trade, Suez was associated with large changes in export shares but only for a handful of goods categories. With respect to mechanisms, the relative cost of using steamships on Suez-affected routes fell dramatically and immediately after 1869, suggesting a vital role for the canal in the global diffusion of steam technology. |
| JEL: | F1 N7 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19758 |
| By: | Baleyte, Jules; Bazot, Guillaume; Monnet, Eric; Morys, Matthias |
| Abstract: | Are temporary high-temperature anomalies supply or demand shocks? And how do central banks respond to them? We investigate these questions with a new historical dataset covering 14 European countries over a full century and accounting for nonlinearities via state-dependent impulse response functions in the vein of Auerbach and Gorodnichenko (2012). The following stylized facts emerge: 1) a high temperature shock is a negative supply shock (lower output growth and higher inflation); 2) the impact is usually less pronounced - but more persistent - on inflation than on output; 3) central banks have responded to these shocks by lowering their interest rate; 4) the macroeconomic impact of individual high temperature shocks on inflation has diminished over time, but the frequency of these shocks has increased. |
| Keywords: | Supply shocks; Climate shocks; Climate change mitigation; Climate policy; Monetary policy; Inflation |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19682 |
| By: | Toporowski, Jan |
| Abstract: | With the possible exception of her work on economic methodology, the monetary economics of Victoria Chick lay at the heart of her macroeconomics, and her general approach to economics. Chick’s monetary economics started with her participation in the revival of monetary theory in the wake of the Radcliffe Report, which argued that liquidity rather than money should be the central operational concept for theory and policy. When the monetary revival turned to monetarism, Chick countered by insisting on the monetary nature of macroeconomic variables, rather than confining money to a “monetary sector” that was added on to a “real” economy. She developed this approach by showing how macroeconomic relations were affected by banking evolution, and later rejected the concept of monetary endogeneity based on central bank operations in inter-bank markets. However, the critical part that she gave to monetary innovation in Keynes’s macroeconomics is an original but controversial part of her intellectual legacy. |
| Keywords: | Radcliffe report;Victoria Chick;banking;monetary theory |
| JEL: | E12 E42 E52 G21 |
| Date: | 2026–07–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140320 |
| By: | Maravall Buckwalter, Laura; Panza, Laura |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the socio-economic, political, and cultural impacts of European colonialism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), focusing on the ways colonial systems reshaped governance, trade, and development in the region. It highlights the introduction of export-oriented economies, resource extraction, and agricultural policies that prioritised metropolitan interests over local needs, exacerbating socio-economic inequalities. The study explores how colonial legacies influenced public goods provision, schooling, and trade networks, leading to persistent disparities in wealth, education, and infrastructure. While colonial rule disrupted traditional societal structures, it also spurred nationalist movements and modest advancements in primary education in some regions. Using a combination of historical and economic analysis, this paper illustrates the enduring effects of colonialism on the region’s institutional and developmental trajectories. |
| Keywords: | Colonialism |
| JEL: | N35 N37 N45 N47 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19736 |
| By: | Olmstead Rumsey, Jane |
| Abstract: | The Panic of 1825 was a significant crisis in British financial history. We document how this crisis spread from London banks to England’s real economy. England’s correspondent banking network propagated trouble in sovereign debt markets to small banks outside of London and ultimately to non-financial firms. Using exogenous variation in district-level exposure to the crisis, we show that bank failures led to a substantial number of bankruptcies among non-financial firms. We discuss two potential mechanisms by which the financial system affected the real economy: a fall in aggregate demand and a credit supply shock. |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2026–07–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140167 |
| By: | Hecken, Kevin |
| Abstract: | Between 1716 and 1742 the Landgraviate of Hesse-Homburg, one of the smallest estates in the Holy Roman Empire, became the stage for two Debit Commissions of the Imperial Aulic Council. Their task was to investigate the volume and the structure of debts that the landgraves had accumulated and to propose a scheme for a successful debt settlement. This paper examines, on the basis of both published and unpublished sources, how the Landgraviate of Hesse-Homburg came to be in such dire financial straits, how the two commissions worked and what their lists of creditors reveal about interpersonal relations in a small territory of the Empire. |
| Keywords: | Holy Roman Empire, Hesse-Homburg, Imperial Aulic Council, Imperial Debt Commission, Public Debt |
| JEL: | P00 H63 H71 N40 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ibfpps:342577 |
| By: | Adriano Lenaz Zenteno (Universidad Privada Boliviana (UPB)); Laura Elena Bustos Quitón (Universidad Privada Boliviana (UPB)) |
| Abstract: | This study applies a qualitative, descriptive, and interpretative approach, using the semiotic method proposed by Umberto Eco [1] and Roland Barthes [2] to unravel the ideological discourses in colonial visual production. Through a decolonial perspective, based on Silvia Rivera Cusicanqui [3], and Walter Mignolo [4] . The research questions colonial pow-er structures inscribed in virreinal pictorial works and their in-fluence on contemporary Bolivian identity construction. The analysis reveals that colonial graphic signs functioned not only as instruments of cultural domination, but also as spaces for resignification and resistance. Furthermore, the study posits the reappropriating of these signs for current graphic design an exercise in cultural reclamation and identity construction. The research contributes to the debate on the decolonization of art and proposes a critical reading that links history, aesthetics, and visual communication in the Bolivian context. |
| Keywords: | Graphic design, Semiology, Culture, Decoloniality. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iad:wpaper:0525 |
| By: | Guo, Yuchen; Jackson, Matthew O.; Jia, Ruixue |
| Abstract: | We examine how peers influence the allegiances of West Point cadets in the American Civil War. Specifically, we analyze how quasi-random variations in the proportion of cadets from northern (low-slave) states influenced the decisions of cadets in choosing which army to join. A higher proportion of classmates from low-slave states significantly increased the likelihood that cadets from high-slave states joined the Union Army, while almost all cadets from low-slave states joined the Union Army (if they decided to join the war). Additionally, the higher the fraction of the population that were slaves in a cadet's home state the lower the likelihood that the cadet joined the Union and the lower the peer influence. We also examine how cadets' decisions affected their military rank and career outcomes. Our results highlight the importance of peer influence in major life decisions, particularly at critical historical junctures. |
| Keywords: | Leaders; Peers; Ideas; Critical junctures |
| JEL: | N41 N31 D85 D81 I28 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19707 |
| By: | Antonie, Luiza; Foxcroft, Jeremy; Inwood, Kris; Minns, Chris; Summerfield, Fraser; Zhu, Tianning |
| Abstract: | This article develops a methodology to create a longitudinal historical database of women by linking Ontario marriage records 1859-1938 to complete count Canadian census data between 1871 and 1921. We assess link quality using tests that provide insight into the trade-offs between sample size and allowing more potential false positives into the universe of accepted links. The results of these tests provide guidance on practical considerations in large-scale linkage projects with historical data. We use the linked data to construct the first historical estimates of female intergenerational mobility for Canada. The findings suggest that married women in Ontario had similar rates of intergenerational mobility as their male counterparts. We find little evidence that the inclusion of more likely false positive links leads to a bias in the estimation of intergenerational mobility. |
| Keywords: | Canada;female longitudinal sample;intergenerational mobility;record linkage |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2026–07–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:139043 |
| By: | Corneo, Giacomo |
| Abstract: | History shows militarily dominant states that pursue imperialism, relying on their might to extort resources from weaker states. Occasionally, the latter revolt and the dominant state suffers some casualties. This paper explores imperialism along steady-growth paths. If the dominant state maximizes domestic welfare, it should eventually abandon imperialism because its safety costs asymptotically overrun its material benefits. To shed light on diametrically opposed historical records, I propose a model of endogenous ideology and war bias in which the political elite cares about self-image. If that concern is strong enough, the political elite gradually identifies with its country's mission of hegemony and imperialism persists. It is first driven by material concerns and later by ideal ones. Despite its divergent preferences, the population of a dominant state generally has little interest to oppose imperialism. |
| JEL: | H8 N4 O0 Z1 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19680 |
| By: | Jänicke, Christin; Gunzelmann, Hans Jonas; Völker, Teresa Sophie; Hutter, Swen |
| Abstract: | The rise of the far right in the 21st century poses fundamental challenges for democracy. In this context, understanding how democratic societies respond to the far right is a crucial question. This question concerns not only politicians from democratic parties, but also civil society actors ranging from large trade unions to local sports clubs and grassroots initiatives. However, the existing scholarly work on societal responses to the far right remains scattered across subdisciplines, addresses a narrow range of questions, and focuses on specific segments of civil society only. We address this gap by synthesizing these literatures and providing an analytical framework of civil society strategies against the far right. We conduct a systematic review of 56 peer-reviewed articles and book chapters published between 1972 and 2024, which forms the core of the analysis. We complement this review with a qualitative content analysis of 191 guidance documents from 42 German civil society organizations across nine organizational fields to capture strategies that are less visible in the academic literature. Our analysis identifies five types of civil society strategy: contentious, public-sphere, cultural and educational, networking, and organizational strategies. It shows that the academic literature is heavily skewed toward contentious action, whereas organizational and networking strategies play a central role in practice but remain largely understudied. At the same time, the evidence on effectiveness is limited and unevenly distributed across strategy types, highlighting important gaps in comparative and cross-national research. By integrating scholarly and practitioner knowledge, the study provides a comprehensive overview of civil society strategies against the far right and outlines a research agenda for more systematic analysis of their effects. |
| Keywords: | Civil Society, Contentious Politics, Counterstrategies, Democratic Resilience, Far Right |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbccs:342560 |
| By: | Martinez, Marco; Nuvolari, Alessandro; Vasta, Michelangelo |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new evidence on the nexus between railroads and inventive activities in Italy in the period 1861-1936. We develop two new georeferenced datasets on railway stations and patents. By adopting the staggered difference in differences identification strategy by Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021), we show that the impact of railroad construction on innovation is only visible for the first wave of construction of the period of the Destra storica (1861-1878), when the network was expanded following a state building strategy. However, these effects became noticeable only after more than two decades and concern mostly independent inventors and low-quality patents. |
| Keywords: | Italy |
| JEL: | O31 O33 N73 L92 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19812 |
| By: | Kumhof, Michael |
| Abstract: | The Chicago Plan, proposed by leading economists during the Great Depression, envisaged the separation of banks into money banks with 100% reserve backing for deposits and credit banks financed through non-monetary liabilities. Fisher (1936) claimed four advantages: (1) Reduction of public debt through a debt-to-equity swap. (2) Reduction of private debts as money creation no longer requires debt creation. (3) Elimination of runs on the payment system. (4) Better control of credit-driven business cycles. Using a DSGE model of the US economy, we find strong support for all four claims. Furthermore, steady state output gains approach 17 percent and monetary policy is much more effective in response to every shock. Monetary policy improves welfare by combining a conventional Taylor rule with a countercyclical rule for the interest rate on treasury loans to credit banks. |
| Keywords: | 100% reserve banking |
| JEL: | E44 E52 G21 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19603 |
| By: | Salima Chafiki (LARMODAD - Le laboratoire de recherche en management des organisations, droit des affaires et développement durable (LARMODAD) Faculté des Sciences Juridiques Economiques et Sociales Souissi -Rabat Université Mohammed V de Rabat, Maroc - FSJES Souissi RABAT - Faculté des Sciences juridiques, économiques et sociales Souissi RABAT); Kaoutar El Menzhi (FSJES Souissi RABAT - Faculté des Sciences juridiques, économiques et sociales Souissi RABAT) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this article is to present a theoretical reflection on the construction of entrepreneurial knowledge in light of research conducted in the field and its developments. Entrepreneurship, as a discipline, has long been regarded as a ‘category error' and a non-sense, as it is based on knowledge that does not belong to it, namely that of economics and management. In this respect, academics have described its body of knowledge as incomplete and unstable. Yet, an increasing number of universities now offer entrepreneurship programs, and the very fact that it is taught demonstrates the existence of a distinct body of knowledge underpinned by a field of study that can be transmitted. However, the question of ‘can entrepreneurship be taught?' has been repeatedly raised ever since researchers began to question its academic legitimacy. However, few studies link the epistemological debate surrounding the absence of a dominant paradigm in entrepreneurship with its actual translation into university teaching frameworks. In this article, we attempt to investigate, in the light of previous research (Kuhn, 1962; Lakatos (1970); Landström, 2020; Fayolle, Verzat & Wapshott, 2016), the extent to which a field of knowledge succeeds in establishing itself as a recognized scientific discipline. Through an analytical and narrative literature review, this article seeks to examine ‘entrepreneurship' across the four dimensions recognized as establishing its academic legitimacy, namely the epistemological, paradigmatic, disciplinary and pedagogical dimensions. We highlight, through each dimension, its uniqueness as a complex phenomenon with multiple and polysemic meanings, as implicitly reflected in the evolution of various interpretations by researchers in the field. This article identifies potential criteria for the disciplinarisation of entrepreneurship, as well as providing an in-depth perspective on the convergences and divergences surrounding its disciplinarisation. |
| Abstract: | Cet article a pour objet d'exposer une réflexion théorique sur la construction du savoir entrepreneurial au regard des recherches menées dans le domaine et de leurs évolutions. L'entrepreneuriat en tant que discipline, a été longtemps considéré comme une category error et un non-sens, car, fondé sur un savoir qui ne lui appartient pas, celui des sciences économiques et de gestion. À cet égard, les scientifiques ont qualifié son savoir d'incomplet et de non stabilisé. Pourtant, de plus en plus d'universités offrent des programmes d'entrepreneuriat, et le fait d'être enseigné prouve l'existence d'un corpus propre adossé à un champ de connaissance qui peut être transmis. Mais la question de « peut-on enseigner l'entrepreneuriat ?» n'a cessé d'être posée depuis que les chercheurs remettent en cause sa légitimité académique. Cependant, peu de travaux articulent le débat épistémologique autour de l'absence d'un paradigme dominant en entrepreneuriat avec sa traduction effective dans les dispositifs universitaires d'enseignement. Nous cherchons dans cet article à investiguer, au regard des travaux antérieurs (Kuhn, 1962 ; Bourdieu (2001) ; Lakatos, 1970 ; Becher (1987) ; Landström, 2020 ; Fayolle & Verzat & Wapshott, 2016) dans quelle mesure un domaine de savoir parvient à se constituer en discipline scientifique reconnue. À travers une revue de littérature analytique et narrative, l'objectif de cet article cherche à questionner l'«entrepreneuriat» sous les quatre dimensions reconnues pour asseoir sa légitimité académique à savoir la dimension épistémologique, la dimension paradigmatique, la dimension disciplinaire et la dimension pédagogique. Nous soulignons, à travers chaque dimension, sa singularité en tant que phénomène complexe d'acception multiple et polysémique telle que tacitement réfléchie par l'évolution des différentes interprétations des chercheurs dans le domaine. Cet article identifie les critères potentiels de disciplinarisation applicables à l'entrepreneuriat ainsi qu'une perspective approfondie des convergences et divergences autour de sa disciplinarisation. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurial education, Knowledge production system, Criteria for disciplinary classification, Entrepreneurship, Education entrepreneuriale, Système de production des connaissances, Critère de disciplinarisation, Entrepreneuriat |
| Date: | 2026–06–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05642012 |
| By: | Schneider, Eric B. |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how acute pollution exposure in historical London (1892–1919) affected child health. I proxy acute, extreme pollution exposure using daily data on fog events, which reflect meteorological conditions where pollution emitted in the city was not dispersed across space leading to a sharp spike in pollution. I also use rich individual-level data on child health drawn from the Queen Charlotte Hospital, a maternity hospital, and the Foundling Hospital, an orphanage. I find no effect of pollution exposure at birth on birth or growth outcomes or on upper respiratory morbidity. However, exposure on the day of birth had persistent effects on health, increasing mortality risk in childhood and adolescence from respiratory diseases and raising incidence, prevalence and sickness duration of influenza and measles. There was no persistent effect of in utero and postnatal pollution exposures. These mixed results show that extreme pollution at birth had lasting impacts on specific, but also limited, dimensions of child health. |
| Keywords: | ambient air pollution;morbidity;child growth;respiratory disease;health transition |
| JEL: | N33 Q53 |
| Date: | 2026–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140269 |
| By: | Gilles Paché (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | A careful reading of the Rule of St. Benedict (BR) reveals a distinctive integration of materials management and spiritual sanctification that has often been overlooked. Within this framework, the cellarer functions not merely as an administrator but as a dedicated logistician, responsible for overseeing food and material stocks, coordinating production in workshops and farms, and maintaining buildings and infrastructure according to the rhythm of monastic life. By transforming everyday tasks into structured practices imbued with moral and spiritual significance, monastic materials management ensures the autonomy, stability, and resilience of the community. This research paper demonstrates that such practices anticipate principles of contemporary materials management, showing that planning, coordination, foresight, and resource optimization are not only practical necessities but also ethical and pedagogical instruments. The analysis positions BR as an early historical model of integrated organization, in which administrative routines, canonical norms, and spiritual formation mutually reinforce one another. It offers enduring lessons on the interplay between operational efficiency, communal cohesion, and moral formation, illustrating how practical organization can become a medium for both ethical education and spiritual cultivation, with relevance extending beyond monastic contexts. |
| Keywords: | Canon law, Community, Logistics, Materials management, Monasticism, Rule of St. Benedict, Spirituality |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05683298 |
| By: | Mehrotra, Santosh (Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | China and India embarked on planned development at roughly the same time and had comparable per capita incomes about four decades ago. Yet they have since diverged sharply in economic growth, human development and inequality. This paper examines the sources of that divergence. It first analyses the contrasting trajectories of agricultural growth. Following agrarian reforms after 1980, China sustained much faster agricultural growth, strengthening rural incomes and domestic demand. India's agrarian transformation remained incomplete, with lasting consequences for growth and structural change. The paper then argues that deeper institutional differences explain the widening gap. It examines divergences in governance, state capability and administrative capacity, investment in education, and growth strategies, particularly the extent to which growth generated productive employment. These factors shaped both the pace and inclusiveness of development. The paper concludes by showing how differences in agricultural transformation, state capability, human capital formation and employment-intensive growth contributed to the contrasting trajectories of inequality in the two countries. |
| Keywords: | China, India, state capability, structural transformation, human development, inequality |
| JEL: | O11 O15 O53 H11 D63 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18779 |
| By: | Barwick, Panle; Kalouptsidi, Myrto; Zahur, Nahim Bin |
| Abstract: | Industrial policy has been used throughout history in some form or other by most countries. Yet, it remains one of the most contentious issues among policymakers and economists alike. In part, this is because the empirical evidence on whether and how it should be implemented remains slim. Scant data on government subsidies, conflicting theoretical arguments, and the need to account for governments’ short and long-run objectives, render research particularly challenging. In this article, we outline a theory-based empirical methodology that relies on estimating an industry equilibrium model to measure hidden subsidies, assess their welfare consequences for the domestic and global economy, as well as evaluate the effectiveness of different policy designs. We illustrate this approach using the global shipbuilding industry as a prototypical example of an industry targeted by industrial policy, especially in periods of heavy industrialization. Just in the past century, Europe, followed by Japan, then South Korea, and more recently China, developed national shipbuilding programs to propel their firms to global leaders. Success has been mixed across programs, certainly by welfare metrics, and sometimes even by growth metrics. We use our methodology on China to dissect the impact of such programs, what made them more or less successful, and how we can justify why governments have chosen shipbuilding as a target. |
| Keywords: | Shipbuilding |
| JEL: | L5 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19557 |
| By: | Rippley, Samantha |
| Abstract: | This study examines the public health impact of early dairy regulation in the United States by analyzing the relationship between raw milk laws and child mortality from 1850 to 1950. Using linked census microdata from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) full-count datasets, intercensal child mortality rates are constructed for children aged 0-5, and a staggered adoption difference-in-differences design is employed to estimate the causal effects of dairy regulations. The identification strategy exploits the heterogeneous timing of raw milk law adoption across counties, with regulations emerging in 1914. The analysis tracks approximately 54.8 million children across ten decade pairs, focusing on families with successfully linked parents to minimize measurement error in mortality estimation. Results indicate that comprehensive dairy regulations did not, on average, reduce child mortality. The preferred specification restricts estimation to individually-verified municipal ordinance counties, the jurisdictions where mandates were most plausibly binding, and is the only specification satisfying the parallel trends assumption. Remaining specifications fail the parallel trends test, consistent with positive selection of urbanizing, lower-mortality counties into treatment. The null result is consistent with voluntary pre-adoption, weak enforcement outside major cities, and declining milk-borne exposure as concurrent water infrastructure improvements reduced competing causes of child death. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404546 |
| By: | Alvaredo, Facundo; Berman, Yonatan; Morelli, Salvatore |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the estimation of the distribution of wealth using estates left at death. We establish formal conditions for implementing a simplified version of the classic estate multiplier method, relying solely on minimal information about estates and mortality. These conditions are empirically validated, and the simplified approach is applied to produce new long-run top wealth share series for Belgium, Japan, and South Africa, where estate data have previously been underutilized. This method holds potential for expanding the range of countries and years in which wealth concentration can be estimated, especially where estate data exist but the standard method with heterogeneous multipliers is inapplicable. |
| JEL: | D3 H2 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19832 |
| By: | Gordon, Robert J.; Sayed, Hassan |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a unified framework that resolves recent puzzles in U.S. productivity growth that we show are interrelated. First, why was productivity growth in the 2010-19 decade the slowest of any decade in U.S. history? Second, why did the cyclicality of productivity growth change from procyclical in 1950-85 to acyclical in 1986-2006 and then back to procyclical in 2010-19? Third, why was productivity growth strongly countercyclical in the recessions of 2008-09 and 2020? The fundamental dynamic driving cyclical productivity fluctuations originates in the gradual adjustment of hours of work to demand-driven output fluctuations due to the costs of hiring and firing labor. Since productivity growth is a residual, equal to output growth less hours growth, productivity growth immediately jumps in response to an upward output movement because hours are slow to respond; then productivity growth falls back in subsequent quarters as hours complete their adjustment. We are able to explain the temporary 1986-2006 disappearance of procyclicality as the result of changes in the standard deviation and serial correlation of output changes. We explain countercyclical productivity surges in 2008-09 and 2020 by showing that business firms in those two episodes overreacted with “excess layoffs, †cutting hours in response to the sharp output decline with a much higher elasticity than normal. By coupling these excess layoffs with a post-recession rehiring effect that gradually unwound the excess layoffs, our regression analysis explains why productivity growth on average was so slow in 2010-19. If this recession/rehiring effect had not occurred, productivity growth in the 2010-19 decade would have been 1.9 percent per year instead of 1.1 percent, suggesting that concern about U.S. “secular stagnation†has been overstated. |
| Keywords: | Productivity; Growth; Secular stagnation |
| JEL: | E32 J24 J63 O30 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19569 |
| By: | Harrison, Ann |
| Abstract: | History is full of examples of successful and unsuccessful industrial policies. The critical question is not whether to engage in such policies but how they are designed and implemented. Industrial policy can work, but only with strict adherence to sensible guidelines based on sound economic practice, political economy considerations, and historical context. Reviewing previous research and focusing on evidence drawn from China and India, I argue that any successful industrial policy requires the following: (1) a successful plan to correct a market failure; (2) consultation with the private sector; (3) enhancement of competition; and (4) a sunset clause permitting the policy to conclude. |
| Keywords: | Industrial policy; Strategic trade and industrial policy |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19693 |
| By: | Boris Hofmann; Aaron Mehrotra; Jan Paulick |
| Abstract: | The emergence of stablecoins has created a new channel to access US dollar liquidity in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), similar to the historical role of foreigncurrency deposits, or "deposit dollarisation". This has raised concerns about the possible implications for monetary control in EMDEs. Drawing on data on foreign currency deposits and dollar-pegged stablecoin inflows for more than 130 economies, we compare the dynamics and drivers of "stablecoin dollarisation" with those of conventional deposit dollarisation. We document that historical deposit dollarisation and recent stablecoin flows are both associated with similar macro-financial drivers, including the strength of exchange rate pass-through and sovereign or banking crises. We further document significant persistence in both deposit and stablecoin dollarisation, suggesting that dollarisation is hard to reverse once established. Unlike deposit dollarisation, stablecoin flows seem to be largely unaffected by either broad or specific capital flow restrictions. This likely occurs because stablecoins are partly circulating outside the regulatory perimeter. The historical record also suggests that moderate deposit dollarisation has been associated with somewhat higher inflation risks, although there is little evidence of significant impacts on monetary policy transmission. |
| Keywords: | dollarisation, capital flows, stablecoins, monetary control, EMDEs |
| JEL: | E44 E58 F32 F38 G15 G23 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1370 |
| By: | Bergeaud, Antonin; Deter, Max; Greve, Maria; Wyrwich, Michael |
| Abstract: | We investigate the causal relationship between inventor migration and regional innovation in the context of the large-scale migration shock from East to West Germany between World War II and the construction of the Berlin Wall in 1961. Leveraging a newly constructed, century-spanning dataset on German patents and inventors, along with an innovative identification strategy based on surname proximity, we trace the trajectories of East German inventors and quantify their impact on innovation in West Germany. Our findings demonstrate a significant and persistent boost to patenting activities in regions with higher inflows of East German inventors, predominantly driven by advancements in chemistry and physics. We further validate the robustness of our identification strategy against alternative plausible mechanisms. We show in particular that the effect is stronger than the one caused by the migration of other high skilled workers and scientists. |
| Keywords: | Patents; Migration; Germany; Innovation |
| JEL: | H10 N44 P20 D31 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19837 |
| By: | Lovenheim, Michael F. (Dept. of Economics, Cornell University); van Egeraat, Eppie (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Willén, Alexander (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | We use population-wide Norwegian administrative data to examine how social capital is transmitted across generations. We construct a multidimensional measure of families’ social position based on six dimensions: elite education, elite occupation, executive status, corporate elite, elite positions in top firms, and elite residential tract. Social capital is highly persistent across generations and strongly predicts children’s long-run income and access to elite positions, even conditional on parental income, wealth, education, and cognitive ability. Horse-race regressions suggest that social capital is a distinct dimension of inherited advantage that is quantitatively as important as parental income and cognitive ability in shaping children’s outcomes. Moreover, the influence of social capital grows over the life cycle, and reaching the very top of the income distribution typically requires both high inherited income and high inherited social capital. Accounting for social capital also meaningfully alters conventional estimates of income-based mobility, indicating that part of what is typically attributed to inherited income reflects the transmission of social position. Quasi-experimental evidence from adoption placements and parental lottery prizes suggests that these patterns primarily reflect environmental transmission rather than genetic inheritance or direct financial resources. |
| Keywords: | Social capital; Intergenerational mobility; Inequality; Elite positions |
| JEL: | J01 J12 J16 |
| Date: | 2026–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2026_009 |
| By: | de Zwarte, Ingrid; Moret, Helmi; de Zwart, Pim |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the dynamics between hunger and warfare during the Indonesian War of Independence (1945-49). We compiled a dataset comprising over 8, 000 prices for staple foods (rice, maize, cassava) covering the entire Indonesian archipelago from 1939-49, allowing us to estimate the effects of the main Dutch military campaigns on food prices. We then use a second dataset on wartime wages to estimate nutritional standards. Our study shows that the war’s impact on food prices was significantly greater than previously assumed, both in and outside Java. We argue that Operation Product was partly motivated by high rice prices, and we demonstrate that these were significantly reduced across Java and Sumatra after the end of the military campaign. Our findings further suggest that local food crises, and possibly famine conditions, occurred across different parts of the archipelago, strongly supporting the notion that food and hunger were central issues during the Independence War. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19797 |
| By: | Saka, Orkun; Ji, Yuemei; Minaudier, Clement |
| Abstract: | We show that politicians facing a binding term limit are more likely to engage in financial deliberalization than those facing reelection, but only in the wake of a financial crisis. In particular, they implement policies that tend to favor incumbent financial institutions over the general population, such as increasing barriers to entry in the banking sector. We propose a conceptual framework and several mechanisms to rationalize this behavior and show that revolving doors between the government and the financial sector play a key role in encouraging bank-friendly policies after crises. |
| Keywords: | democracies;financial crises;political accountability;special-interest groups;term limits |
| JEL: | J1 E6 |
| Date: | 2026–07–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140385 |
| By: | Zakharov, Alexei; Sonin, Konstantin |
| Abstract: | Elite purges are an instrument of power control in authoritarian regimes. The purges in the Soviet Red Army during the 1937-38 Great Terror were one of the most intensive on record. Within two years, almost two thirds of the 1, 863 officers holding general-grade military ranks in 1936 were arrested; almost a half were executed. To analyze the patterns of repression among the Soviet high command, we compile a biographical data set from a large number of open and archival sources. Some of our findings should be familiar to historians: probability of being repressed was higher for certain ethnic minorities, higher ranks, and those with prior foreign contacts. Overall, our findings confirm that Stalin was not reacting to any imminent conspiracy threat but rather sought to preemptively minimize the risk of a possible coup. We show that Stalin specifically targeted the most competent officers: controlling for other characteristics, including the military rank and party history, the probability of repression was much higher for younger cadres. Combined with the results that military promotions in 1941 were, other things equal, inversely related to age, this is the first systematic evidence that the Great Terror directly impacted the disastrous Red Army performance in the first years of the German invasion. |
| Keywords: | Stalin |
| JEL: | P00 D74 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19772 |
| By: | Roy, Tirthankar |
| JEL: | O10 |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:124596 |
| By: | Cavalcanti, Tiago; Fernandes, Leticia; Santos, Cezar; Rachter, Laisa |
| Abstract: | We investigate how changes in barriers to female labor force participation and the child penalty impact occupational decisions, human capital, fertility, and income. To this end, we develop a general equilibrium model with men and women, endogenous fertility, human capital investment, and occupational choice. By calibrating the model to US data, we estimate that changes in both gender distortions account for 30% of the US growth observed between 1960 and 2020. While the decline in the child penalty increases fertility, the reallocation of female labor from high-fertility to low-fertility occupations explains approximately 28% of the decline in the fertility rate during this period. Furthermore, reducing existing gender barriers would increase output per capita by 9% in 2020, enhance gender diversity across occupations, increase fertility, and ultimately improve female welfare. |
| Keywords: | Fertility; Occupational choice; Growth |
| JEL: | E25 J13 O10 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19886 |
| By: | Shiue, Carol; Keller, Wolfgang |
| Abstract: | This paper documents persistence in the power of elite families in Central China despite dynastic change. We study the impact of the fall of the Ming Dynasty (1368-1644) on couples and their descendants (treatment of people), and present evidence on the response of multi-generational family lines to a big shock. Local Ming elites suffered a decline in influence in the short run, but in the long-run their descendants recovered and tightened their grip on power in their role as the elites of the new Qing Dynasty (1644-1911). In contrast to the recovery of family lines, the fall of Ming had a more persistently negative impact on the regions that historically were most strongly negatively affected by the shock (treatment of regions). The paper suggests that the elite reversal is due to trauma caused by Ming destruction that shifted norms towards the most socially respectable career paths based on the civil service exam; these norms were, to a greater degree, intergenerationally transmitted in family lines that suffered more from the destruction in the fall of the Ming dynasty. |
| Keywords: | Institutions |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19642 |
| By: | Fang, Jo; Speer, Jessie |
| Abstract: | England today is embroiled in a housing crisis resulting from decades of policy choices that have eroded affordability. Simultaneously, political parties and popular media have constructed a so-called ‘migrant crisis’ based in the misplaced perception that increasing rates of migration have overburdened public budgets. Though often discussed separately, the housing crisis and the perceived crisis of migration are deeply intertwined outcomes of the same ideological, historical, and economic processes. In this article, we trace a critical history of English housing policy in light of contemporary anti-migrant narratives. Building on work from theorist Stuart Hall, who contended that moral panics around mugging in 1970s Britain served to distract from economic crisis and justify policing agendas, we argue that contemporary anti-migrant narratives have similarly taken root because of widespread economic anxiety in the face of strained public resources and escalating housing costs. We show how the scapegoat produced by contemporary migration panics is not only empirically unclear and conceptually oversimplistic but diverts attention away from longer-term political choices that have exposed large segments of the population to housing insecurity. |
| Keywords: | crisis;home;housing;migration;moral panic |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–07–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140441 |
| By: | David Philippy (ICP - Institut Catholique de Paris (ICP), CSO - Centre de sociologie des organisations (Sciences Po, CNRS) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Keywords: | Economics, Family |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05690969 |
| By: | Bai, Ying; Jia, Ruixue; Yang, Jiaojiao |
| Abstract: | This study examines the short-, medium-, and long-term impacts of state censorship on knowledge production, focusing on the largest book-banning campaign in Chinese history, initiated during the compilation of the Siku Quanshu (Complete Library in Four Sections) between 1772 and 1783. Analyzing publication data from over 161, 000 books spanning the 1660s to the 1940s, we find that categories subjected to stricter censorship experienced significant declines in publication during the seven decades following the bans (1770s–1830s). However, beginning in the 1840s, political upheavals and the erosion of state control triggered a resurgence of publications in previously restricted categories. This pattern of suppression and recovery extends to ideas, as evidenced by keyword analysis of book titles. Further analysis highlights the central role of chilling effects in driving these dynamics, with the exit and entry of publishers playing a crucial role in both the suppression and subsequent revival of knowledge production. |
| Keywords: | Censorship; Ideas |
| JEL: | D83 H11 O31 Z19 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19803 |
| By: | Orphanides, Athanasios |
| Abstract: | Throughout its history, the Fed has operated with a muddled mandate that has not explicitly recognized price stability as the primary goal of monetary policy. The Fed’s success in maintaining price stability and fostering the good economic performance associated with it has depended on how it interpreted its mandate and implemented its policy strategy. In the 1970s and in the recent past, the Fed interpreted its mandate in an overambitious fashion, placing undue emphasis on the elusive goal of maximum employment. On both occasions, the Fed’s strategy proved insufficiently resilient, and high inflation followed. To improve its policy strategy the Fed ought to revert to earlier interpretations of its mandate that acknowledge the primacy of price stability as a policy guide. |
| Keywords: | Federal Reserve |
| JEL: | E32 E52 E58 E61 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19697 |
| By: | Mitchener, Kris; Wandschneider, Kirsten |
| Abstract: | The Great Depression is the canonical case of a widespread currency war, with more than 70 countries devaluing their currencies relative to gold between 1929 and 1936. What were the currency war’s effects on trade flows? We use newly-compiled, high-frequency bilateral trade data and gravity models that account for when and whether trade partners had devalued to identify the effects of the currency war on global trade. Our empirical estimates show that a country’s trade was reduced by more than 21% following devaluation. This negative and statistically significant decline in trade suggests that the currency war destroyed the trade-enhancing benefits of the global monetary standard, ending regime coordination and increasing trade costs. |
| JEL: | F14 F33 F42 N10 N70 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19839 |
| By: | Patterson, Joel |
| Abstract: | A will is executed once and read once, and the two moments are usually years apart. Everything in this paper happens in between. A validly executed will is not a system that tracks its maker's life; it is a snapshot of one afternoon of it. English law then operates on the snapshot mechanically as events occur. Marriage revokes the whole instrument (Wills Act 1837, s.18). Divorce does something stranger: the will survives, but every gift to and appointment of the former spouse takes effect as if that spouse had died on the day the marriage ended (s.18A). The sale of a specifically gifted asset deletes the gift, with no compensation from the proceeds (ademption). The death of a beneficiary before the testator deletes another gift by lapse, subject to a statutory rescue that reaches only the testator's own descendants (s.33). None of these mechanisms asks what the testator would have wanted. Each executes a rule, and the leading cases are a catalogue of outcomes nobody in the story intended — including one in which the testator's chosen charity lost its gift because his former wife had failed to die, and the estate went on intestacy instead. The paper states each mechanism precisely, maps the eleven household continuity events of the companion taxonomy (SIG-WP-2026-02) to their testamentary consequences, and examines the mechanism by which "I have a will" — a true sentence — quietly terminates the attention the instrument still needs. It then sets out the discipline that follows: a short trigger list, a periodic floor, and a defined inspection, satisfiable with a diary and an ordinary solicitor's appointment. The reform context sharpens the argument. The Law Commission's 2025 recommendation to abolish revocation by marriage would, if enacted, remove the one mechanism that at least fails towards the formal spouse or civil partner and, where there are issue, the issue — and leave the pre-marriage will standing. The draft Bill contains a power to save a badly executed will. It contains nothing to save a perfectly executed one that has outlived its facts. |
| Date: | 2026–07–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:lawarc:rtzks_v1 |
| By: | Bosker, Maarten; Haasbroek, Megan |
| Abstract: | We use detailed historical data on India's domestic infrastructure to show how its high domestic transport costs have conditioned the local labor market consequences of its drastic import tariff liberalization in the early 1990s. We find that districts located farther away from the country's main international gateways are better shielded from the resulting increased foreign import competition: their non-agricultural employment falls less than in otherwise similarly exposed districts located closer to India's major ports. At the same time, they also benefit less from improved access to foreign intermediates: non-agricultural employment increases less than in districts with a similar input-output structure, but located closer to the country's main ports. These employment responses also vary across firms of different sizes: employment in small to medium sized firms is hit hardest by increased import competition, whereas employment in medium to large firms benefits most from better access to foreign intermediates. This difference between small and large firms is also most pronounced in districts best-connected to India's major ports. |
| Keywords: | India |
| JEL: | F14 F15 R11 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19780 |
| By: | Rosillo-Rodes, Pablo; Lamata-Otín, Santiago; Soriano-Paños, David; Hébert-Dufresne, Laurent; Dodds, Peter Sheridan |
| Abstract: | The naming choices of powerful rulers encode millennia of cultural, political, and institutional influences. Consequently, the long-term onomastic dynamics within some of the most powerful dynasties cannot be explained by simple mechanisms such as frequency-dependent reinforcement or random name reuse. Here, we propose a minimal model that encapsulates these influences in a single highly stochastic variable, prestige, and assume that name selection is driven by the prestige accumulated by previous rulers bearing the same name within each dynasty. Using an extensive dataset spanning ten dynasties, we show that the model reproduces the pronounced inequalities in name frequencies, the long-term persistence of dominant names, and the abrupt rises in popularity observed in historical records. Our results suggest that the naming traditions of powerful rulers preserve institutional memory through reinforcement while remaining sensitive to rare historical events that can reshape the hierarchy of names across generations. |
| Date: | 2026–07–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:n8cs2_v1 |
| By: | Wilp, Susanne Bleier |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a theoretical synthesis of the suppression of the sex worker rights movement in the United States and argues that the country is not merely an exporter of carceral anti-trafficking power, as a companion paper on Southeast Asia showed, but its laboratory of origin. Bernstein's (2018) concept of carceral feminism, which the Southeast Asia paper located extraterritorially in the US Trafficking in Persons Report, was itself developed through ethnographic engagement with domestic US anti-trafficking activism. Drawing on Chateauvert's (2014) history of the movement, on the legal scholarship on FOSTA-SESTA (Chamberlain 2019; Albert, Brundige and Lee 2021; Fuentes et al. 2025), and on biographical and organisational documentation of individual activists, the paper makes three claims. First, federal prosecution of movement founders - most visibly Robyn Few's 2002 arrest under Patriot Act-era federal authority - has historically produced rather than suppressed organising capacity. Second, FOSTA-SESTA (2018) functioned as a domestic rescue machine: legal scholarship and a systematic review of nine empirical studies (Fuentes et al. 2025) document reduced income, increased violence risk, and the loss of digital and physical assembly space, exemplified by the 2019 cancellation of the Desiree Alliance conference under fear of liability. Third, the movement's own history has never been free of internal marginalisation along lines of race and gender identity: Gloria Lockett's founding of CAL-PEP in 1984 arose from an explicit critique of COYOTE's focus on white and higher-status sex workers, a line of critique that continues in the present through Monica Jones's Outlaw Project and Akynos's Black Sex Worker Collective. The paper closes the arc of a four-part series by showing that the rescue machine was tested at home before it was exported. |
| Date: | 2026–07–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:7b58a_v1 |
| By: | Mohr, Cathrin; Trebesch, Christoph |
| Abstract: | We review the literature on geoeconomics, defined as the field of study that links economics and geopolitics (power rivalry). We describe what geoeconomics is and which questions it addresses, focusing on five main subfields. First, the use of geoeconomic policy tools such as sanctions and embargoes. Second, the geopolitics of international trade, especially work on coercion and fragmentation. Third, research on the geopolitics of international finance, which focuses on currency dominance and state-directed capital flows. Fourth, the literature on geopolitical risk and its spillovers to the domestic economy, e.g. on investments, credit, and inflation. Fifth, the economics of war, in particular research on trade and war and on military production. As geopolitical tensions grow, we expect the field to grow substantially in the coming years. |
| Keywords: | Fragmentation; Dominance; War; Sanctions; Coercion; Embargoes |
| JEL: | D74 F01 F1 F2 F3 H56 N40 P45 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19856 |
| By: | Steiner, Julia |
| Abstract: | Saxony’s Kassenbillets (1772–1873) are widely referred to as Germany's first ‘successful’ paper money, yet no systematic analysis has examined what made them successful. This paper challenges this consensus by testing whether Kassenbillets could practically be used to cover essential purchases across different income groups. Using a historical consumer price index for Leipzig and Dresden (1763–1803) and wage data, the analysis compares the cost of annual consumption baskets against income levels and evaluates whether Kassenbillets aligned with actual purchasing patterns. Three critical problems limited their use as everyday currency: extreme price volatility with the consumer price index (212.81% increase); structural insufficiency of wages with 26.09% of incomes falling below basic consumption costs; and systematic exclusion of lower income groups, as 57.33% of wages fell below one Taler weekly, making even the smallest denomination impractical. Contemporary sources recognised that the average income was 50 Taler annually, yet authorities introduced one Taler as the smallest denomination, effectively designing a financial instrument inaccessible to most. While Kassenbillets were designed to support state debt financing, they failed as a medium of exchange for the broader population, demonstrating that monetary innovations can serve elite interests whilst excluding the wider population. |
| Keywords: | monetary history;paper money;financial history;public finance;German history |
| JEL: | N0 F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:140541 |
| By: | Müller, Dana (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Vom Berge, Philipp (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "Have employment histories become less stable over time? And if so, to what extent? An analysis of employment durations and job changes across various career stages of employees subject to social security contributions provides answers to these questions. The study examines differences between East and West Germany as well as between women and men." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Date: | 2026–08–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabkbe:202614 |
| By: | D'Amico, Leonardo; Glaeser, Edward; Gyourko, Joseph; Kerr, William; Ponzetto, Giacomo |
| Abstract: | We document a Kuznets curve for construction productivity in 20th-century America. Homes built per construction worker remained stagnant between 1900 and 1940, boomed after World War II, and then plummeted after 1970. The productivity boom from 1940 to 1970 shows that nothing makes technological progress inherently impossible in construction. What stopped it? We present a model in which local land-use controls limit the size of building projects. This constraint reduces the equilibrium size of construction companies, reducing both scale economies and incentives to invest in innovation. Our model shows that, in a competitive industry, such inefficient reductions in firm size and technology investment are a distinctive consequence of restrictive project regulation, while classic regulatory barriers to entry increase firm size. The model is consistent with an extensive series of key facts about the nature of the construction sector. The post-1970 productivity decline coincides with increases in our best proxies for land-use regulation. The size of development projects is small today and has declined over time. The size of construction firms is also quite small, especially relative to other goods-producing firms, and smaller builders are less productive. Areas with stricter land use regulation have particularly small and unproductive construction establishments. Patenting activity in construction stagnated and diverged from other sectors. A back-of-the-envelope calculation indicates that, if half of the observed link between establishment size and productivity is causal, America’s residential construction firms would be approximately 60% more productive if their size distribution matched that of manufacturing. |
| Keywords: | Construction industry; Firm productivity; Land-use regulation; Housing |
| JEL: | D24 E23 L74 L78 R31 R38 R52 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19711 |
| By: | Richard S. J. Tol |
| Abstract: | The rich have emitted the bulk of greenhouse gases. The poor suffer the bulk of the impacts. Climate change is a transfer from poor to rich. Climate policy is a transfer from rich to poor. Why, Schelling asked, do people in the Global North care about the descendants of people they do not care about? And, assuming they do, are there no better ways to help them than emission reduction? A prominent economist, Schelling posed his Paradox and Conjecture in a series of papers in the 1980s and 1990s. The economics profession has largely ignored his work, instead focusing on Nordhaus' simpler carbon-as-an-externality framing. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.04322 |
| By: | Advani, Arun; Ash, Elliott; Boltachka, Anton; Cai, David; Rasul, Imran |
| Abstract: | Issues of racial justice and economic inequalities between racial and ethnic groups have risen to the top of public debate. Economists' ability to contribute to these debates is based on the body of race-related research. We study the volume and content of race-related research in economics. We base our analysis on a corpus of 225, 000 economics publications from 1960 to 2020 to which we apply an algorithmic approach to classify race-related work. We present three new facts. First, since 1960 less than 2% of economics publications have been race-related. There is an uptick in such work in the mid 1990s. Among the top-5 journals this is driven by the American Economic Review, Quarterly Journal of Economics and the Journal of Political Economy. Econometrica and the Review of Economic Studies have each cumulatively published fewer than 15 race-related articles since 1960. Second, on content, while over 50% of race-related publications in the 1970s focused on Black individuals, by the 2010s this had fallen to 20%. There has been a steady decline in the share of race-related research on discrimination since the 1980s, with a rise in the share of studies on identity. Finally, we apply our algorithm to NBER and CEPR working papers posted over the last four decades, to study an earlier stage of the research process. We document a balkanization of race-related research into a few fields, and its continued absence from many others -- a result that holds even within the subset of research examining issues of inequality or diversity. We discuss implications of our findings for economists' ability to contribute to debates on race and ethnicity in the economy. |
| JEL: | A11 B41 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19898 |
| By: | Hong, Sehyun; Mo, Zhexun; Yang, Jiwei |
| Abstract: | This paper constructs the first long-run estimates of top wealth concentration in South Korea from 1970 to 2021, using newly assembled estate tax tabulations and applying a simplified mortality multiplier method. The series uncovers a pattern that diverges sharply from the gradual postwar increase in wealth inequality seen in many Western economies. Korea experienced two distinct regimes: a two-decade period of low and stable concentration from 1970 to 1990, when the top 0.1 percent held a roughly stable 3 to 5 percent of wealth, followed by a substantial rise beginning in the late 1990s to a new, higher plateau of around 10 percent. This abrupt “Great Unleveling, ” plausibly linked to institutional and market changes surrounding the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, coincided with a shift in elite portfolios from land-based to financial assets. Independent property-tax records show that land concentration stayed flat across this break, indicating that the rise originated in financial rather than landed wealth. In international perspective, Korea moves from a low-inequality profile typical of developing economies to a moderately high-inequality regime similar to contemporary France and Japan. The findings highlight how sudden institutional breaks, rather than gradual trends alone, shape the long-run distribution of wealth. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper) |
| Date: | 2026–07–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:n9ta8_v1 |
| By: | Federle, Jonathan; Mohr, Cathrin; Schularick, Moritz |
| Abstract: | We study the political consequences of inflation surprises, focusing on votes for extremist and populist parties in 365 elections in 18 advanced economies since 1948. Inflation surprises are regularly followed by a substantial increase in vote shares of extremist, anti-system, and populist parties. An inflation surprise of 10 percentage points leads to a 15% increase in their vote share, comparable to the increase typically seen after financial crises. We show that the change in voting behavior is particularly pronounced when real wages decline, and less evident when real wages are not affected. Our paper points to considerable political after-effects of unexpected inflation. |
| Keywords: | Inflation |
| JEL: | D72 E31 N40 N10 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19741 |
| By: | Novosad, Paul; Asher, Sam; Farquharson, Catriona; Iljazi, Eni |
| Abstract: | Unequal opportunity in the sciences reduces scientific contributions from the most talented individuals and limits the rate of human progress. We study unequal opportunity by collecting data on the childhood SES of Nobel laureates in the sciences. The average laureate grew up in an 87–90th percentile household. Access to opportunity doubled from 1901–2023, but remains highly unequal. Barriers are higher for women, but lower for Americans. Access to opportunity across countries is much less equal, and has barely improved at all. Cities with more intergenerational mobility produce more laureates from non-elite families, and more laureates overall. |
| JEL: | I24 O31 J62 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19551 |
| By: | Mr. Luis Ignacio Jácome; Mr. Nicolas E Magud; Samuel Pienknagura; Martin Uribe |
| Abstract: | We explore the historical link between populist regimes, fiscal monetization, and inflation, and how these links affect monetary policy in the 21st century. Using data for a large set of advanced economies and emerging markets since 1960, we show that, historically, left-leaning populist regimes are linked to increases in central bank lending to the central government, a gauge of deficit monetization. In turn, central bank lending is associated with marked increases in inflation. We show that past exposure to populism that relied on deficit monetization affects the conduct of monetary policy today. Countries with a history of deficit monetization and left-wing populist regimes systematically respond more strongly to deviations of inflation expectations from target. This effect persists even after controlling for the direct effect of past inflation on monetary policy rules. In the context of the literature of experienced learning, this novel finding sheds light on the persistence of past populist policies---central banks operating under the shadow of past populist regimes that relied on inflation-prone deficit monetization continue today needing to send stronger signals of their independence and commitment to price stability to effectively anchor inflation expectations. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy; Populism; Inflation Targeting; Fiscal Dominance; Past Inflation; inflation expectation; deficit monetization; monetary policy rule; IMF working papers; central bank lending; Inflation; Bank credit; Central bank credit; Output gap; Global; South America; Central America; Caribbean |
| Date: | 2026–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/167 |
| By: | Federle, Jonathan; Rohner, Dominic; Schularick, Moritz |
| Abstract: | The impact of economic resources on the outcomes of military conflicts is heatedly debated—yet causal empirical evidence is lacking. To address this gap, the current paper asks whether “deeper pockets†help win wars. We construct a fine-grained dataset covering more than 700 interstate disputes and rely on exogenous resource price shocks to estimate the causal effect of financial windfalls on winning chances in interstate conflicts. We find a statistically significant and quantitatively large impact of windfalls on winning odds and show that a key channel of transmission is a surge in military spending. |
| Keywords: | Commodity prices |
| JEL: | D74 F51 H56 N40 Q02 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19841 |
| By: | Klein, Alexander; Matthews, Peter |
| Abstract: | We construct county-to-county transport cost data set for each decade between 1820 and 1860 in the United States using time-, region-, and direction of transport specific freight rates and the historical transport networks. We document several stylized facts about the effects of canals and railways on the average county-to-county transport cost, market access, and the role of new transportation network in the shaping the direction of domestic trade. We show that by 1860, the canals and railways led to the shift of the highest market access region from the Atlantic coast and Mississippi region to the Midwest and the Great Lakes region, and their absence would have increased the transport costs by more than sixty percent in the Northeast and by almost fifty percent in the South. In addition, by 1840, canals had substantially lowered the costs of transporting goods from the Midwest to the east, making the northern route cheaper than the original route via the Mississippi River and the Atlantic coast. |
| JEL: | N71 N91 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19735 |
| By: | Bazot, Guillaume; Monnet, Eric; Morys, Matthias |
| Abstract: | We study how central banks have used their balance sheet to absorb international monetary shocks since the late 19th century, thereby regaining some monetary policy autonomy in a context of financial openness. If the uncovered interest rate parity does not hold, an increase in the leading international interest rate may push up domestic interest rates in both fixed and floating exchange rate regimes. Central banks can partially insulate domestic short-term interest rates from this increase by expanding domestic assets. With a fixed exchange rate, this is in addition to the sterilization of foreign exchange interventions. Accounting for the response of central bank balance sheets to an exogenous international shock sheds light on some puzzling behavior of interest rates and exchange rates across international monetary regimes in history. This study is based on a new monthly dataset of central bank balance sheets, macroeconomic, and financial variables for 23 countries since 1891. |
| Keywords: | Gold standard; International spillovers; Global financial cycle; Bretton Woods; Trilemma; Foreign exchange interventions |
| JEL: | E4 E5 F3 F4 N1 N2 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19646 |
| By: | Michael J. Callen; Gregory Levy; Saipremnath Muthukumaran; Jonathan Weigel; Noam Yuchtman |
| Abstract: | Explaining why some countries grow rich while others remain poor requires knowing how — and when — institutions change. A large body of research argues that institutional change often occurs at critical junctures: moments when multiple institutional futures are possible, including a return to the status quo. Yet most empirical work examines critical junctures only in retrospect, risking the omission of pivotal moments when institutions were in flux but ultimately remained unchanged. We develop a new empirical approach to detect critical junctures as they unfold. Our key insight is to understand critical junctures as moments of uncertainty about institutions, which provides a text classifier with a theoretically motivated object to detect in contemporaneous discourse. In this chapter, we apply this idea to the study of historical critical junctures using newspaper text as a rich source of information regarding contemporary beliefs about institutional uncertainty. We translate this insight into a measurement strategy by training a large language model-based classifier, which we apply to the Times of London archive — 11.95 million articles spanning 1800 to 2019 — while focusing our main empirical analysis on 120 years of reporting from 1900 to 2019. This produces the first long-run, text-based measure of institutional uncertainty grounded in the concept of critical junctures. Compared to established indices of geopolitical and economic risk, our measure innovates on several fronts: (i) it captures high uncertainty even in periods without formal institutional change, consistent with ex-ante definitions of critical junctures; (ii) it provides earlier signals of major global convulsions, such as World War I; (iii) it evaluates candidate critical junctures using a common ex ante measure; and (iv) it opens new avenues for studying how critical junctures shape institutions and long-run development. Today, our Times-based index suggests that institutional uncertainty in the US and UK is as elevated as it was in the early 1940s — a signal missed by other leading measures of risk. |
| Keywords: | institutional change, critical junctures, large language models |
| JEL: | P00 O10 D70 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12842 |
| By: | Galor, Oded; Klemp, Marc; Wainstock, Daniel C. |
| Abstract: | This study reveals the pivotal impact of the prehistoric out-of-Africa migration on global variation in the degree of cultural diversity within ethnic and national populations. Drawing on novel diversity measures—encompassing folkloric and musical traditions among indigenous ethnic groups, as well as norms, values, and attitudes in modern societies—an intriguing pattern emerges: societies whose ancestors migrated farther from humanity’s cradle in Africa exhibit lower cultural diversity. These striking findings underscore: (i) the profound role of cultural dynamics in shaping the enduring effects of the out-of-Africa migration on social cohesion, innovativeness, and living standards; (ii) the origins of persistent global variations in cultural expressions within an increasingly interconnected world; and (iii) the roots of variations in societal adaptability to evolving economic and technological landscapes. |
| Keywords: | Diversity; Culture |
| JEL: | O10 Z10 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19718 |
| By: | Wilp, Susanne Bleier |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a theoretical synthesis of the suppression of the sex worker rights movement in the United States and argues that the country is not merely an exporter of carceral anti-trafficking power, as a companion paper on Southeast Asia showed, but its laboratory of origin. Bernstein's (2018) concept of carceral feminism, which the Southeast Asia paper located extraterritorially in the US Trafficking in Persons Report, was itself developed through ethnographic engagement with domestic US anti-trafficking activism. Drawing on Chateauvert's (2014) history of the movement, on the legal scholarship on FOSTA-SESTA (Chamberlain 2019; Albert, Brundige and Lee 2021; Fuentes et al. 2025), and on biographical and organisational documentation of individual activists, the paper makes three claims. First, federal prosecution of movement founders - most visibly Robyn Few's 2002 arrest under Patriot Act-era federal authority - has historically produced rather than suppressed organising capacity. Second, FOSTA-SESTA (2018) functioned as a domestic rescue machine: legal scholarship and a systematic review of nine empirical studies (Fuentes et al. 2025) document reduced income, increased violence risk, and the loss of digital and physical assembly space, exemplified by the 2019 cancellation of the Desiree Alliance conference under fear of liability. Third, the movement's own history has never been free of internal marginalisation along lines of race and gender identity: Gloria Lockett's founding of CAL-PEP in 1984 arose from an explicit critique of COYOTE's focus on white and higher-status sex workers, a line of critique that continues in the present through Monica Jones's Outlaw Project and Akynos's Black Sex Worker Collective. The paper closes the arc of a four-part series by showing that the rescue machine was tested at home before it was exported. |
| Date: | 2026–07–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:qtjn4_v1 |