|
on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | Kawauchi, Atsushi (Tohoku University) |
| Abstract: | Resilience research in disaster studies has advanced rapidly but faces a fundamental methodological problem: the absence of historical context. Criteria for judging resilience "success" vary across periods and regions, yet the risk of anachronism inherent in applying universal resilience models has been consistently overlooked. This paper presents the "Three-Layer Temporal Structure Theory of Disaster Social History, " drawing on Fernand Braudel's tripartite conception of historical time. The framework analyzes disaster phenomena through the mutually interpenetrating dynamics of geographic time (millennia), structural time (decades to centuries), and event-historical time (days to years), redefining "resilience" not as recovery capacity but as a process of "historical reconstruction" shaped by historical context. Through analysis of flood response history from the seventeenth century to the present in the Igu region of Miyagi Prefecture, three theoretical findings are derived. First, transitions in the structural time layer produce "transitional vulnerability, " in which existing resilience forms are dismantled before new ones emerge. Second, interactions among the three layers are bidirectional: events in lower layers can transform upper layers. Third, the recurrent invocation of "beyond all expectation" constitutes critical evidence that normative criteria for "normality" are historically constructed within the structural time layer. The framework provides an interdisciplinary analytical axis bridging the natural sciences and the humanities, while offering a critical historical perspective for contemporary disaster risk reduction policy. |
| Date: | 2026–04–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:dym8k_v1 |
| By: | Maravall Buckwalter, Laura; Basco Mascaro, Sergi; Domènech Feliu, Jordi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how export-oriented settler agriculture shaped the spatial distribution of indigenous populations in colonial Algeria. By the early twentieth century, Algeria had become one of the world's largest wine producers and the principal supplier of wine to metropolitan France. We construct a commune-level panel dataset combining census measures of theindigenous population with indicators of viticultural intensity derived from agricultural reports. Exploiting variation in early exposure to viticulture across communes, we show that indigenous population growth became increasingly concentrated in high-viticulture areas from the late 1920s onward, with divergence intensifying during the Great Depression. This pattern is consistent with in-migration driven by the relatively continuous labor demand of viticulture -unlike more seasonal crops- followed by reduced outward mobility as alternative employment opportunities contracted. These findings indicate persistent spatial differences in population growth across communes. This study provides systematic quantitative evidence linking the labor demands of settler monoculture to the spatial concentration of indigenous populations in colonial Algeria. |
| Keywords: | Colonial Algeria; Viticulture; Population growth; Internal migration; Labor demand; Settler economies |
| Date: | 2026–04–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:whrepe:49839 |
| By: | Xinyu Fan; Gary Richardson; Zhihao Xu; Sicheng Zhao |
| Abstract: | Defections during war are extreme changes in loyalty. What motivates military officers to betray their motherland and serve the invaders? Using a novel dataset of career paths for over 2, 800 high-ranking (colonels and generals) Nationalist (KMT) military officers during the Second Sino-Japanese War (as part of World War II), we examine defection cases to Japanese puppet regimes. Three findings emerge. First, high-ranking KMT officers who advanced more slowly in their careers were more likely to defect; suggesting that internal organizational recognition matters. Second, officers who were underpromoted compared to their schoolmates and townsmen were more likely to defect, suggesting that peer comparison matters. Third, officers were more likely to defect when their defected peers had better career prospects in the enemy’s camp, suggesting that external recognition matters. |
| JEL: | D73 D74 M51 M52 N45 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35069 |
| By: | Marcello D’Amato (University of Naples Federico II and CSEF, University Suor Orsola Benincasa); Francesco Flaviano Russo (University of Naples Federico II and CSEF) |
| Abstract: | We explore whether and how the similarity of pre-existing cultural traits between ethnic groups in the former colonies and colonizers contributes to explain the legacies of colonization. We find higher levels of income per capita, and a lower probability of a “Reversal of Fortunes”, in the territories where the local population had more similar oral traditions to the colonizers and where the dispersion of this folklore similarity was smaller. Exploring the mechanisms, we find that more oral tradition similarity, and less dispersion, are associated with more similar (de iure) constitutions established at independence, a higher frequency of a direct colonial rule, more conversions to Christianity and better education. |
| Keywords: | Colonial Relationship; Culture; Orality; Folklore Narratives; Historical Development |
| JEL: | J15 Z10 |
| Date: | 2026–03–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:774 |
| By: | Pierre Adrien Du Cly (SU UFR Histoire - Sorbonne Université - Faculté des Lettres - UFR Histoire - SU FdL - Sorbonne Université - Faculté des Lettres - SU - Sorbonne Université, SU - Sorbonne Université, SU UFR HAA - Sorbonne Université - Faculté des Lettres - UFR Histoire de l'art et archéologie - SU FdL - Sorbonne Université - Faculté des Lettres - SU - Sorbonne Université) |
| Abstract: | This article analyzes the historical and material significance of the galleon San José, wrecked off the coast of Cartagena de Indias in 1708. Focusing on the first 8-escudo coins minted in Lima in 1707 and recently recovered, the study explores how these artifacts transcend their status as mere treasure to become archives of imperial power. The author examines the role of this cargo within the context of the War of the Spanish Succession, the impact of its loss on the colonial economy, and the transition of these coins from instruments of power to objects of scientific and memorial study. |
| Abstract: | Este artículo analiza la importancia histórica y material del galeón San José, cuyo pecio yace frente a las costas de Cartagena de Indias desde 1708. Al centrarse en las primeras monedas de 8 escudos acuñadas en Lima en 1707 y recientemente extraídas, el estudio explora cómo estos objetos trascienden su valor como simple tesoro para convertirse en archivos del poder imperial. El autor examina el papel de este cargamento en el contexto de la Guerra de Sucesión Española, el impacto de su pérdida en la economía colonial y la transición de estas piezas de un estatus de instrumento de poder al de objeto de estudio científico y memorial. |
| Abstract: | Cet article analyse l'importance historique et matérielle du galion San José, dont l'épave repose au large de Carthagène des Indes depuis 1708. En se concentrant sur les premières monnaies de 8 escudos frappées à Lima en 1707 et récemment extraites, l'étude explore comment ces objets transcendent leur valeur de simple trésor pour devenir des archives de la puissance impériale. L'auteur examine le rôle de cette cargaison dans le contexte de la Guerre de Succession d'Espagne, l'impact de sa perte sur l'économie coloniale et la transition de ces pièces d'un statut d'instrument de pouvoir à celui d'objet d'étude scientifique et mémoriel. |
| Keywords: | 8 escudos, cobs, numismatics, sedwick, Shipwreck, Treasure, San Jose, 8 reales, pillar dollar, Macuquinas, Pecio, Oro, San josé, Cartagena de Indias, Numismatica colonial, Indias, peru, colonial, numismatica, macuquinas |
| Date: | 2025–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05424576 |
| By: | Concepcion Betran (Universitat de Valencia) |
| Abstract: | Using disaggregated trade data for the interwar period, specifically 1928 and 1931-1935, we analyze the changes in Spain’s exports and imports at the product-country level by matching the categories of the original sources with those of the International Standard Classification of Foreign Trade (SITC). In 1928, Spain mainly exported agricultural goods and raw materials (around 60 and 13 percent of total exports, respectively) and mainly imported manufacturing goods and raw materials (45 and 31 percent of total imports, respectively). We calculate the margins of trade for imports and exports to determine the extent to which the Great Depression and trade policy contributed to the collapse in trade in the 1930s. Since Spain was not a member of either a formal or informal trading bloc, it was under pressure to negotiate bilateral trade agreements based on conditional most-favored nation clauses, whereby access to Spain's market was offered in exchange for Spanish agrarian exports, starting in late 1931. As a result, conditional MFN by product and country reduced fixed costs to trade and trade policy played a non-negligible role. The share of intra-industry trade was around 15-19 percent (at 3-digit SITC level) over the period: the Great Depression negatively affected it, whereas trade agreements had a positive effect from 1932 on. Moreover, Spain’s comparative advantages in fruit increased, but declined in wine and olive oil. |
| Keywords: | Disaggregated trade, Great Depression, Trade policy, Spain |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bci:wpaper:2603 |
| By: | Anelli, M.; Morelli, M.; Pappalettera, M. |
| Abstract: | The People’s Party is the only major populist movement in American history that was quickly reabsorbed by mainstream parties. We study the main trigger of its rise—technological disruption from railroad expansion—and discuss its dissolution in light of the conceptual framework we develop and test empirically. We construct a novel county-level measure of Technological Disruption Exposure (TDE) that captures the change in competitive pressure each county faced from all other counties, driven by railroad-induced reductions in transportation costs between 1870 and 1890. TDE positively predicts People's Party vote share in the 1894 congressional elections: a one standard deviation increase raises Populist support by nearly 3 percentage points. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the effect is concentrated in counties with high crop specialization—where competitive vulnerability translates into concentrated losses. A commitment-politics framework organizes these patterns: railroads reduced the prob-ability of being a market winner in high-TDE counties, where voters shifted from discretionary to commitment politicians. The 1890s episode is uniquely informative because, unlike today, there was fiscal and institutional room to rebuild trust: main-stream parties credibly adopted Populist demands, and the movement dissolved. Today those conditions do not hold—which may explain why modern populism has proven more persistent. |
| Date: | 2026–04–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2628 |
| By: | Gilles A Paché (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | Guano, a natural fertilizer derived from seabird excrement, is exceptionally rich in phosphates, nitrates, and potassium, essential for crop growth and soil restoration. In the nineteenth century, Peru's islands contained vast deposits that fueled intensive agriculture, particularly in Europe. Extraction relied on immigrant labor under harsh conditions and required sophisticated coordination among local producers, traders, and maritime carriers. Exposure to storms, piracy, and political conflicts demonstrated that economic strength alone could not secure export flows. Reliance on a limited number of islands made supply chains highly vulnerable, highlighting the necessity of diversifying sources and maintaining strategic reserves. The guano trade provides early evidence that resilient agricultural commodity chains depend on proactive planning, logistical flexibility, and multi-stakeholder collaboration. Lessons from this historical case offer a framework for modern agricultural systems to withstand environmental, economic, and geopolitical shocks. By emphasizing anticipation, diversification, and operational margins, the guano case illustrates how continuity of procurement and agricultural productivity can be preserved, providing actionable insights for contemporary food security, sustainable fertilizer management, and the strategic handling of critical resources. |
| Keywords: | critical resources, food security, guano, history, logistics, resource dependence, supply chain, Agriculture |
| Date: | 2026–04–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05582105 |
| By: | B. Ravikumar; Guillaume Vandenbroucke |
| Abstract: | While the global population more than doubled from 1960 to 2020, the growth was unevenly distributed. Two regions accounted for most of that population change. |
| Keywords: | world population; regional population growth; population trends |
| Date: | 2026–04–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:103015 |
| By: | Alison Doxey; Ezra Karger; Peter Nencka |
| Abstract: | Between 1850 and 1910, the share of young Americans living in towns with high schools increased from 17% to 46%—the fastest expansion of school access in U.S. history. Using new data on every high school in the United States, we show that this expansion transformed economic opportunities for many young adults but widened class and racial inequalities. We find sharp increases in school attendance rates for high school-aged children in towns that opened a high school relative to children in nearby towns without one. Linking children to adult outcomes, we show that high schools increased women's labor force participation and job quality, while reducing the probability of early marriage and childbearing. Increased access to high school accounts for a third of the increase in women's labor force participation between 1870 and 1930. High schools had the largest effects on children from already-wealthy families, and did not, on average, benefit Black children. While the high school movement substantially narrowed gender gaps in labor market outcomes, it also widened existing race- and class-based disparities. |
| JEL: | I2 I25 I28 N00 N31 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35068 |
| By: | Tetsuji OKAZAKI |
| Abstract: | Immediately after World War II, under the occupation by the United States, the Japanese government implemented various policies aimed at initiating economic recovery through restoring production and suppressing inflation. Reflecting the policy of the U.S. government, Japanese policy regimes evolved through three phases: First, naïve economic controls were implemented that prioritized increasing production but disregarded productivity, second, economic controls aiming at increasing productivity, and finally a transition to a market economy. In this paper, we explored implications of this sequence of policy regime change, focusing on the coal mining industry. Analyzing mine-level panel data, we found that naive economic controls prioritizing increasing production, and particularly price control policies, distorted coal mining firms’ incentives for increasing productivity. Specifically, the firms whose productivity was higher in the initial year lacked incentives to increase productivity, and consequently, productivity of those firms stagnated. Additionally, despite policy changes aiming at productivity increase implemented in 1948, the changes had no significant effect on productivity growth. In contrast, the transition to a market economy had a positive impact on productivity growth; however, this impact was heterogeneous, and only firms whose initial productivity was higher and whose incentives had been distorted under the system of economic control saw positive effects. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:26030 |
| By: | Cordilha, Ana Carolina |
| Abstract: | Does the French social protection system act as a brake on financialized capitalism, or as one of its mechanisms? The system is often presented as a Fordist legacy standing in the way of a finance-dominated accumulation regime. This reading appears to rest on a perspective that does not fully account for its recent transformations. This article analyzes the financing arrangements of social protection in the era of financialized capitalism and questions its place within a financialized economy. Drawing on the concept of financialization, it traces the recomposition of financing since the 1990s, showing how the system has integrated financial capital, through what instruments, and at what cost. The method combines an original quantitative analysis of financial flows between social protection bodies and the financial sector over the period 1990–2024, complemented by a qualitative analysis of institutional and financial documents. The article then offers a reinterpretation of its role in the contemporary configuration of capitalism, drawing on regulation theory. The results show that the system has integrated financial actors and instruments at the core of its financing. Its model is now hybrid: non-repayable resources from compulsory levies are supplemented by repayable funds, accompanied by interest payments to financial actors. Thus, far from restraining a financialized economy, social protection today appears to contribute to its reproduction. It produces safe and profitable assets that fuel financial expansion, while containing the social tensions liable to destabilize it. |
| Keywords: | Financialization; financialisation; financialized capitalism; financialised capitalism; social policy; social protection; regulation theory; finance; health; financiarisation; capitalisme financiarisé; protection sociale; théorie de la régulation; Sécurité sociale; santé |
| JEL: | G1 G10 G23 I0 I1 I18 I38 |
| Date: | 2026–03–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128653 |
| By: | Hashimoto, Barry; Gray, Kevin W.; Duggal, Kabir |
| Abstract: | The meaning of the fair and equitable treatment standard in international investment law remains unsettled. One interpretation ties it to the customary minimum standard of treatment, familiar from the Neer case; another treats it as a more demanding standard deriving from autonomous treaty or customary obligations. State practice, scholarly commentary, and arbitral decisions can be marshaled for both views. In recent decades, however, tribunals have gravitated toward the autonomous interpretation, over the objections of certain writers and the sustained resistance of many states—most notably the U.S., a principal architect of international investment law and a major capital exporter. This article asks why. It surveys and synthesizes leading theories from international political economy, sociology, and law, identifying the contributions and limits of the resulting accounts. It then advances a new theory of jurisprudential drift as coordinated equilibrium maintenance, drawing on insider accounts of arbitration practice and game-theoretic models of cooperation. Senior arbitrators and elite counsel use general principles of arbitration and treaty interpretation to entrench broader interpretations of investment treaties. This equilibrium is sustained by reputational discipline within networks of specialists and practitioners, coupled with interrelated mechanisms of secrecy, judicial economy, and peer review. The article then traces the minimum standard’s doctrinal development, the rise of the modern investment treaty regime, and the evolution of fair and equitable treatment in arbitral practice, state practice, and academic commentary. It argues that prevailing legal explanations cannot account for the observed trajectory of arbitral decisions and that the proposed theory better explains the shift toward broader interpretations of the fair and equitable treatment standard in the case law. |
| Date: | 2026–04–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:9564y_v1 |
| By: | Morgane Gonon (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris); Hugo Mosneron Dupin (La République des savoirs : Lettres, Sciences, Philosophie - CdF (institution) - Collège de France - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Département de Philosophie - ENS-PSL - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris) |
| Abstract: | Since the 1970s, ecological economics has promoted the materialisation of economic analysis through the lens of matter and energy flows, hybridising economic concepts with biophysical knowledge. This perspective has progressively diffused into mainstream environmental economics — a development that, at first glance, appears to constitute an ontological and epistemological victory for the embedded economy tradition. Yet re-embedding and the mobilisation of material knowledge are insufficient to strengthen economics' capacity to orient the ecological transformations that are now required. By concentrating on the economy–biosphere interface and deploying a utilitarian rationality aimed at demonstrating the economic case for preservation, materialised economics tends to render invisible the socio-economic conflicts, institutional conditions of action, and structural obstacles to reducing anthropogenic pressures. Biophysical analyses contribute primarily three types of inputs — information, prices, or optimal quantities — whose transformative reach remains limited. These limitations delineate an impossibility triangle for the discipline: simultaneously representing biophysical dynamics, socio-economic systems, and operational levers for transformation. Re-embedding renders things visible, but does not supply the conditions for implementing transformative policies. The article proposes a distinction between ecological objectives (EOs) — defined by compliance with biophysical constraints — and normative ecological objectives (NEOs), which explicitly formulate policies, regulations, or economic actors' courses of action. Material knowledge must be translated into NEOs, while economic analysis focuses on examining their socio-economic, distributional, institutional, and financial consequences. The proposed framework organises a six-step research programme oriented towards analysing the conditions of possibility for ecological transformations, rather than demonstrating their economic rationality. This reorientation refocuses economics on its proper objects — production, distribution, institutions, and conflict — while preserving the biophysical constraint, and enables the articulation of material knowledge, political decision-making, and economic analysis within a consequentialist perspective. |
| Abstract: | Depuis les années 1970, l'économie écologique a promu la matérialisation de l'analyse économique fondée sur les flux de matière et d'énergie, en hybridant les concepts économiques et les savoirs biophysiques. Cette perspective s'est progressivement diffusée jusqu'à l'économie de l'environnement dominante, ce qui constitue à première vue une victoire ontologique et épistémologique de l'économie encastrée. Cependant, le réencastement et la mobilisation de savoirs matériels ne suffisent pas à renforcer la capacité de la discipline économique à orienter les transformations écologiques nécessaires. En se concentrant sur l'interface économie-biosphère et en mobilisant une rationalité utilitaire visant à démontrer l'intérêt économique de la préservation, l'économie matérialisée tend à invisibiliser les conflictualités socio-économiques, les conditions institutionnelles de l'action et les obstacles à la réduction des pressions anthropiques. Les analyses biophysiques apportent principalement trois types de contributions — information, prix ou quantité optimale — dont la portée transformative demeure limitée. Ces limites dessinent un « triangle d'impossibilité » pour la discipline économique : représenter simultanément les dynamiques biophysiques, les systèmes socio-économiques et des leviers de transformation opérationnels. L'encastrement permet essentiellement de rendre visible, sans fournir les conditions de mise en œuvre de politiques transformatrices. L'article propose une distinction entre objectifs écologiques (OE) — définis par le respect de contraintes biophysiques — et objectifs écologiques normatifs (OEN), qui formulent explicitement des politiques, réglementations ou actions d'acteurs économiques. Les savoirs matériels doivent être traduits en OEN, tandis que l'analyse économique se concentre sur l'étude de leurs conséquences socio-économiques, distributives, institutionnelles et financières. Le formalisme proposé organise ainsi un programme de recherche en six étapes visant à analyser les conditions de possibilité des transformations écologiques plutôt qu'à en démontrer la rationalité économique. Ce déplacement recentre la science économique sur ses objets propres — production, distribution, institutions et conflits — tout en maintenant la contrainte biophysique, et permet d'articuler savoirs matériels, décision politique et analyse économique dans une perspective conséquentialiste. |
| Keywords: | Environmental economics, Ecological economics, Political ecology, Political economy |
| Date: | 2026–03–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ciredw:hal-05567895 |
| By: | Nicolas Remond (CRIEG - Centre de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Economie Gestion - MSH-URCA - Maison des Sciences Humaines de Champagne-Ardenne - URCA - Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne, REGARDS - Recherches en Economie Gestion Agroressources Durabilité et Santé - CRIEG - Centre de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Economie Gestion - MSH-URCA - Maison des Sciences Humaines de Champagne-Ardenne - URCA - Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a longitudinal and historical analysis of Twin Peaks (1990–1991) and its late sequel The Return (2017), used as an empirical object to examine the dynamics of patrimonialization and organizational heritage. By articulating memory, temporality, and reinvention, the analysis reveals a dual movement: the consolidation of a collective cultural heritage and its creative deconstruction. Theoretically, patrimonialization is conceived as an organizational heritage process in which collective memory becomes a strategic resource — not a fixed legacy, but a driver of creation and transformation (Taupin, Le Masson & Segrestin, 2024). Methodologically, serialized fiction constitutes an empirical object for observing tensions between identity and innovation across three corpora spanning three decades (1990–1992–2017). Finally, the paper highlights the managerial relevance of this analysis: Twin Peaks illustrates how organizations, like cultural universes, mobilize their heritage to reinvent themselves without betraying it — between memory, temporality, and creation. |
| Abstract: | Cette recherche propose une analyse longitudinale et historique de Twin Peaks (1990–1991) et de sa suite tardive The Return (2017), mobilisés comme objet d'étude pour examiner les dynamiques de patrimonialisation et d'héritage organisationnel. En articulant mémoire, temporalité et réinvention, l'analyse met en lumière un double mouvement : la consolidation d'un patrimoine culturel collectif et sa déconstruction créative. Sur le plan théorique, la patrimonialisation est envisagée comme un processus organisationnel d'héritage dans lequel la mémoire collective devient une ressource stratégique — non un héritage figé, mais un levier de création et de transformation. Sur le plan méthodologique, la fiction sérielle constitue un matériau empirique permettant d'observer les tensions entre identité et innovation à travers trois corpus sur trois décennies (1990–1992–2017). Enfin, cette recherche souligne la portée managériale de l'analyse : Twin Peaks illustre comment les organisations, à l'image des univers culturels, mobilisent leur héritage pour se réinventer sans le trahir — entre mémoire, temporalité et création. |
| Keywords: | Twin Peaks, Analyse historique, Analyse longitudinale, Fiction sérielle, Temporalité, Héritage organisationnel, Patrimonalisation |
| Date: | 2026–04–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05580564 |
| By: | Reena Singh (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Ashok Gulati; Purvi Thangaraj |
| Abstract: | Punjab and Haryana have long played a pioneering role in shaping India's agricultural transformation, when it was needed the most. With the adoption of input-intensive technologies during the Green Revolution, Punjab emerged as the leader in transforming Indian agriculture during the 1970s and 1980s, with Haryana following closely. This transformation led to a substantial increase in wheat and rice productivity, thereby significantly strengthening government procurement of these staple crops and ensuring food security of the country. Further, India has emerged as the largest producer of rice in the world and also the largest exporter with a share of 40 per cent in global exports of rice during Marketing Year 2025 (USDA, 2026). At the same time, the environmental costs of sustaining national food security have been substantial. Intensive paddy (rice) cultivation practices have placed severe stress on natural resources, leading to the degradation of land and depletion of groundwater in both states. Yet, farmers continue to grow this crop due to profitability and its assured procurement from the government. |
| Keywords: | agri-market, Farmer Income, carbon credits, export, national food security, Punjab, Haryana, icrier |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:report:26-r-13 |
| By: | Itamar Drechsler; Alexi Savov; Philipp Schnabl |
| Abstract: | We argue that severe credit crunches in the banking system contributed to the Great Stagflation of the 1970s. The credit crunches were due to Regulation Q, a banking law that capped deposit rates. Under Reg Q, Fed tightening triggered large deposit outflows that led banks to contract lending. The credit crunches line up closely with stagflation in the time series. To explain this, we add Reg Q to a standard model where firms use bank loans to finance working capital. When Reg Q binds and credit contracts, working capital becomes more expensive, leading firms to raise prices and shrink output. The model implies an augmented Phillips curve where monetary tightening reduces aggregate supply in addition to demand. The impact on supply is increasing in the severity of the credit crunches, firms' external finance dependence, and their working capital intensity. We test all three predictions in the cross section of manufacturing industries. In each case, we find that more exposed industries raise prices and cut output relative to others. Our results imply that under severe financial frictions monetary policy affects aggregate supply and not just demand. |
| JEL: | E52 E58 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35057 |
| By: | Scott A. Carson |
| Abstract: | In 1893, Frederick Jackson Turner proposed that America's Far Western frontier was an economic 'safety-valve, ' a place where settlers migrated when European and eastern states' economic and social conditions crystallized against their upward mobility. However, Turner's hypothesis has come under recent scrutiny, where it is proposed that weather asymmetries and farmers' inability to adjust their farm sizes and region-specific human capital decreased Central Plains' agricultural productivity. Despite challenges to the Turner hypothesis, the Illinois prison illustrates that Central Plains' average height, BMI, and weight by socioeconomic status, race, and urban residence remained constant and robust; heights were taller, BMIs were higher, and weights were heavier. Rather than decreasing, Illinois's net nutrition remained constant or improved, despite Chicago's rapid industrialization, indicating the Turner hypothesis, as measured by net nutrition, remains a viable economic and net nutritional explanation for conditions on the western frontier. |
| Keywords: | stature, Body Mass Index, cumulative net nutrition, nativity; urbanization, race |
| JEL: | C1 C4 D1 I1 N3 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12609 |
| By: | Rossi Guido A. (Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics, University of Turin, Torino) |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tur:wpapnw:106 |
| By: | Panizza, Hugo |
| Abstract: | This note explores the theoretical appeal and practical challenges of Value Recovery Instruments (VRIs) in the context of sovereign debt restructurings. While VRIs and other state-contingent debt instruments have the potential to align debt repayment with a country's ability to pay, their actual success has been limited in practice. The note traces the history of VRIs from their origins in the 1989 Brady exchanges to their inclusion in more recent debt restructurings. It delves into the rationale behind VRIs, identifies the main challenges associated with their issuance - particularly their asymmetric structure, and discusses three specific cases. The document concludes by taking stock of the ongoing debate about the future of VRIs. |
| Keywords: | Value Recovery Instruments, Sovereign Debt, Debt Restructuring, State-Contingent Debt, Economic Policy, Asymmetric Structure, Brady Exchanges, Financial Challenges |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:notfdl:2406 |
| By: | Adrián Armas Rivas (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú); Zenón Quispe Misaico (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú) |
| Abstract: | Similar a otras economías latinoamericanas, el Perú atravesó uno de los periodos más severos de desequilibrios macroeconómicos reflejados en tasas de inflación de hasta cuatro dígitos en los ochenta. Luego de varios intentos fallidos de estabilización (llamados “paquetazos”) por combatir la hiperinflación, con ajustes significativos del tipo de cambio (del sistema de tipos de cambios múltiples) y ajustes fiscales parciales, se realizó un novedoso programa de estabilización en 1990.EsteprogramafueelprimeroenLatinoamérica que utilizó el control de agregados monetarios con un abandono permanente delrégimen de tipodecambiofijo y tuvo dos clarasetapas. La primera, entre agosto de 1990 y enero de 1991, se centró en eliminar el financiamiento del Banco Central al fisco y en reestablecer los mecanismos del mercado en la determinaciónde los precios, las tasasde interés y eltipo de cambio. La segunda etapa comenzó en febrero de 1991 con la liberalización total de los estrictos controles cambiarios y de capitales, lo que incentivó la repatriación de capitales. Se consolidó un sistema bimonetario en donde la moneda nacional recuperó gradualmente la confianza de los agentes económicos en un proceso que aún continúa, para lo cual fue crucial la instauración de la institucionalidad de las políticas macroeconómicas; en especial, la autonomía del banco central y la disciplina fiscal. Este proceso constituye un hito fundamental para la economía peruana, que divide claramente un antes de desequilibrios macroeconómicos persistentes e ineficiente asignación de los recursos y un después que presenta una estabilidad macroeconómica sostenida que promueve el crecimiento económico. |
| Keywords: | bimonetarismo, estabilización, hiperinflación, Perú, política monetaria, tipo de cambio. |
| JEL: | E31 E42 E44 E52 E58 N26 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2025-026 |
| By: | Oscar Stiffelman |
| Abstract: | In 1956 John Kelly wrote a paper at Bell Labs describing the relationship between gambling and Information Theory. What became known as the Kelly criterion is an objective or utility function and a closed form solution in simple cases. The economist Paul Samuelson argued that it was an arbitrary utility function, and he successfully kept it out of mainstream economics. But he was wrong. We now know, largely through the work of Tom Cover at Stanford, that Kelly's proposal is objectively optimal: it maximizes long-term wealth, it minimizes the risk of ruin, and in a game-theoretic sense, it is competitively optimal, even over the short term. One of Cover's most surprising contributions to portfolio theory was the universal portfolio, related to universal compression in information theory, which performs asymptotically as well as the best constant-rebalanced portfolio in hindsight. Although the algorithm itself is very abstract, one of the key steps Cover used -- rewriting the multi-period investing problem as a sum of products rather than a product of sums -- reveals the information structure of the investing problem, making it accessible to the techniques of information theory. That same technique is applied here to show that even in the most general form, Kelly's objective factors the investing problem into three terms: a money term, an entropy term, and a divergence term. Because the first two terms are independent of the allocation, the only way to maximize the compounding growth rate is to minimize the friction from the divergence term, which measures, in bits, the difference between the chosen distribution and the unknown true distribution. This means that investing is, fundamentally, a compression problem. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.10758 |
| By: | José E. Boscá; Rafael Doménech; Javier Ferri; Vicente Pallardó; Camilo Ulloa |
| Abstract: | En esta edición del Observatorio del Ciclo se aborda el estudio de los determinantes del ciclo económico en España, con la información completa hasta el último trimestre de 2025. Aparte de las secciones habituales, ponemos el foco en analizar la evolución en España del precio relativo de la vivienda, respecto al deflactor del consumo privado. El intenso crecimiento de los últimos años del precio relativo de la vivienda aconseja distinguir entre factores de demanda, factores de oferta y perturbaciones financieras, así como interpretar esa dinámica en términos de equilibrio general y no solo desde una óptica parcial. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2026-12 |
| By: | Bjarni G. Einarsson;Thórarinn G. Pétursson |
| Abstract: | We use Bayesian methods to estimate a model of trend inflation in Iceland, allowing for stochastic volatility in both the trend and cyclical components of inflation and a time-varying persistence of deviation of inflation from its trend. Our results show that although trend inflation has fallen and become more stable since the mid-1980s, most of the improvements in overall inflation performance in Iceland reflects a decline in the volatility and persistence of the cyclical component of inflation. At the same time, our results suggest that the share of overall inflation dynamics accounted for by the trend component has significantly risen in recent years. We also find that the trend continues to be more volatile than in other advanced economies, largely reflecting less firmly anchored inflation expectations and, more recently, the interaction of weakly anchored inflation expectations and large global supply shocks. |
| JEL: | C11 C32 E31 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ice:wpaper:wp100 |