|
on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | Michael Baltensperger; Cédric Chambru; Jakob Metzler; Ulrich Woitek |
| Abstract: | We estimate daily wage rates for skilled and unskilled construction workers and agricultural laborers in Switzerland from 1750 to 1860, a period of profound political and economic transformations. Our analysis is based on 17, 700 newly collected wage quotes from primary sources and 23, 300 price quotes from primary and secondary sources. We find that wages and prices were remarkably similar among different Swiss regions. We therefore construct price and wage series for the entire territory. Nominal wages remained largely unchanged during the second half of the eighteenth century, rose markedly around 1800 and then held at that level until 1850. Real wages stagnated as a result of rising price levels. Contrary to earlier claims of low Swiss wages, wages in the construction sector were similar to those in neighboring European regions, in particular France and Germany. We quantify the uncertainty in our wage estimates that arises from sampling uncertainty and potentially undocumented in-kind benefits. |
| Keywords: | Real wages, consumer price index, standards of living, Switzerland, 18th Century, 19th century |
| JEL: | J3 J4 I31 N33 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zur:econwp:486 |
| By: | Schneider, Eric B.; Davenport, Romola |
| Abstract: | This paper uses population smallpox mortality rates in eighteenth-century Sweden and the death toll from the 1707–09 smallpox epidemic in Iceland to estimate plausible ranges for the case fatality rate (CFR) of smallpox (Variola major). We find that smallpox CFRs could be extremely high (43–55 per cent) when smallpox attacked a population where both children and adults were susceptible, as in Iceland. However, where smallpox was endemic and therefore a disease of childhood, as in Sweden, the estimated CFR is only 8–10 per cent: far lower than the consensus CFR of 20–30 per cent. We argue that social factors explain these differences. Where both adults and children were susceptible, smallpox epidemics fundamentally disrupted basic household tasks and nursing of the sick, dramatically increasing the CFR. Thus, when historians and epidemiologists give CFRs for smallpox, they should consider the population and context rather than relying on an implausible intrinsic CFR of 20–30 per cent. |
| Keywords: | smallpox case fatality rate; epidemics; historical demography; social determinants; vaccination |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2026–02–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130496 |
| By: | Hart, Robert (University of Stirling); Singleton, Carl (University of Stirling) |
| Abstract: | This study examines a neglected aspect of research on industrial relations: workplace disputes in which workers are incidentally made idle because of the strike actions of others. The work uses a comprehensive dataset from 1920 to 1970 compiled by the UK Engineering Employers’ Federation (EEF), where membership embraces engineering and metalworking industries, including automotive and aircraft manufacture. During the interwar and wartime period (1920–45), relatively few workers were made idle compared with those directly on strike. In contrast, the post-war period (1946–70) saw a substantial rise in both the likelihood and scale of workers made idle. This was driven largely by sharp increases from the late 1950s with the onset of prolonged and previously unprecedented industrial conflict in manufacturing. Focusing on 1960–70, the study finds that in the later years, when the new Labour Government encouraged mergers in the car industry, the number of EEF workers made idle nearly matched the hundreds of thousands who were striking. Non-pay disputes were most likely to generate incidental idleness within the EEF companies, particularly those involving demarcation disputes, production constraints, working conditions, and redundancy. |
| Keywords: | company strikes, workers made idle, pay disputes, non-pay disputes, British industry |
| JEL: | J52 L61 L62 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18389 |
| By: | Ruth A. Judson; Colin Weiss |
| Abstract: | The size of the Federal Reserve's balance expanded dramatically from 2008 to 2022 and has recently begun to adjust as the Fed moves toward a policy of "ample" reserves. While this expansion was unprecedented in its speed and came after a long period of stability, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has risen and fallen and changed in composition over time. This note provides a graphical review of the evolution of the balance sheet from the Fed's founding in 1914 through 2025, with particular emphasis on how the balance sheet changed as the gold standard ended in the early 1970s, as the Fed shifted to interest-rate targeting in the early 1990s, and as the Fed responded to the 2008 financial crisis. |
| Date: | 2026–02–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:102802 |
| By: | Jean-Philippe Eglinger (Inalco - Institut National des Langues et Civilisations Orientales); Pierre Journoud (CRISES - Centre de Recherches Interdisciplinaires en Sciences humaines et Sociales de Montpellier - UMPV - Université de Montpellier Paul-Valéry) |
| Abstract: | The year of the 80th anniversary of independence and the 50th anniversary of reunification, on the eve of the 14th Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam and the 40th anniversary of the Đổi mới [Renewal], 2025 marked a time for major assessments in Vietnam and for structural reforms aimed at ushering in a new phase of national development. The Đổi mới enabled the country to emerge as one of the most dynamic economic powers in Southeast Asia. Yet, four decades later, Vietnam finds itself at a crossroads. It must evolve its economic model to avoid becoming trapped in the middle-income country category. Its "bamboo diplomacy" is being severely tested in a regional and international context deteriorating due to the clash of nationalist ambitions, the resurgence of imperial temptations, and the rejection of balanced multilateralism. The following article offers a perspective on current economic and geopolitical events. |
| Abstract: | Année du 80e anniversaire de l'indépendance et du 50e anniversaire de la réunification, veille du 14e Congrès du Parti communiste vietnamien et du 40e anniversaire du Đổi mới [renouveau], 2025 a sonné l'heure des grands bilans, au Vietnam, et des réformes structurelles destinées à concrétiser une nouvelle étape du développement national. Le Đổi mới a permis au pays d'émerger comme l'une des plus dynamiques puissances économiques d'Asie du Sud Est. Pourtant, quatre décennies après, le Vietnam se retrouve à la croisée des chemins. Il doit faire évoluer son modèle économique pour éviter de se retrouver bloqué dans le piège des pays à revenu intermédiaire. Sa « diplomatie du bambou » est mise à rude épreuve dans une conjoncture régionale et internationale dégradée par le choc des ambitions nationalistes, le retour des tentations impériales, le rejet d'un multilatéralisme équilibré. L'article qui suit propose une mise en perspective de l'actualité économique et géopolitique. |
| Date: | 2026–02–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05522396 |
| By: | Aadya Bahl |
| Abstract: | Making the industrial strategy work in Manchester |
| Keywords: | Manchester, urban, neighbourhoods, , Industrial Strategy |
| Date: | 2026–02–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:723 |
| By: | Pietro Daniel Omodeo (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice) |
| Abstract: | This essay critically explores the connection between epistemology, political ecology, economy, and technological developments in the Anthropocene, understood as the epoch in which humankind has become a major force of geological transformation. It addresses the Anthropocene as a discourse and as a reality, bringing together epistemological reflexivity, ideology critique, and political economy-cum-ecology. The essay begins with an overview of the genesis and development of the Anthropocene concept—an often-repeated history which I reconsider from the viewpoint of historiographic developments in the history and philosophy of science. Since the Anthropocene hypothesis makes the history of knowledge, technological advancement, and socioeconomic structures fundamental factors in the Earth's history, I point to the necessity of revising our reality-conceptions to account for the development of a world in which epistemic, economic, and political histories intersect with physics, geology, and biology. As a reappraisal of the historico-materialist approaches to science studies, I propose to expand the 'externalist' understanding of the socio-economic roots and social functions of science by including, in the geoanthropological paradigm to come, considerations of social metabolism and ecology. This proposal is also meant to serve as a basis for new forms of cross-disciplinary economic thinking that must comprise cultural and environmental perspectives. These considerations are the background of my criticism of the ideological aberrations in the debate on Anthropocene politics, which I term 'dark ecologies'. I especially refer to Bruno Latour's adherence to Malthusian and social-Darwinian ideas. In the last part, I discuss eco-socialist alternatives to the ecological impasse and advocate for the defence of the commons against their alienation as a premise of future prosperity. |
| Keywords: | Political ecology, geoanthropology, technological alienation, Latour, Malthusianism, tragedy of the commons, eco-socialism |
| JEL: | F64 J10 O14 O44 Q01 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2026:05 |
| By: | Iyigun, Murat (University of Colorado, Boulder) |
| Abstract: | The United States—and to a lesser extent the United Kingdom and Europe—stands at a critical juncture. Two waves of Washington Consensus–era liberalism since the early 1980s hollowed out Western middle classes, as standard economic theory would predict. The 2008 global financial crisis and the bipartisan policy responses that followed further exposed the prevailing economic order as one that disproportionately benefits multinational corporations, the ultra-wealthy, and highly educated liberal elites. It is, indeed, undeniable that this order succeeded in dramatically reducing global poverty and improving living standards across much of the developing world. Yet its domestic political and social costs have proven severe in The West. In the United States, in particular, these effects have intensified sociopolitical tensions to alarming levels. The central divide is not simply between left and right, but between continued commitment to Enlightenment values and the growing pull of tribalism. In this brief note, I draw parallels between U.S. developments since 2008 and Turkey’s socioeconomic and political trajectory from the 1980s through the 2020s, and conclude by outlining three potential remedies. |
| Keywords: | institutions, Washington consensus, western polarization |
| JEL: | N O P |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18378 |
| By: | Carlos Gradín |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I analyze historical trends in the size and composition of the global middle class. To reduce arbitrariness in prior definitions, I propose a new definition of today’s middle class based on the two central income classes in the four-group simplified representation of the world distribution, thereby minimizing information loss (i.e., maximizing class inequality). So defined, the global middle class comprises approximately half of the world’s population and income, roughly encompassing a rising developing middle class (the global lower-middle class) and those aligning with Western European lower-middle-class living standards (the global upper-middle class). I investigate its historical trends using both absolute and relative approaches. I show that the significant expansion of people living with today’s middle-class standards, particularly over the last two decades, was driven by stronger economic growth in emerging economies such as China, only partially offset by changes in income distribution within countries. This expansion resulted in a dramatic shift in the composition of the middle class, which I also document. I compare these trends with alternative approaches to defining the middle class and assess their robustness. |
| Keywords: | Global income distribution, global middle class, income growth, income inequality |
| JEL: | D31 D63 F63 I31 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vig:wpaper:2601 |
| By: | Martin-Bassols, Nicolau (University of Bologna); Biroli, Pietro (University of Bologna); De Cao, Elisabetta (University of Bologna); Anelli, Massimo (Bocconi University); von Hinke, Stephanie (University of Bristol); Mendolia, Silvia (University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | The establishment of the UK National Health Service (NHS) in July 1948 was one of the most important health policy interventions of the 20th century, providing universal and free access to medical care and expanding maternal and infant health services. In this paper, we estimate the causal effect of the NHS introduction on early-life mortality and examine whether survival is selective. Using an RD design, we compare individuals born just before and just after July 1948. Leveraging newly digitized weekly death records, we document a significant decline in stillbirths and IMR following the NHS introduction, driven mainly by fewer deaths from congenital conditions and diarrhea. We then use polygenic indexes (PGIs), fixed at conception, to track changes in population composition. Cohorts born at or after the NHS introduction exhibit higher PGIs associated with contextually-adverse traits and lower PGIs associated with contextually-valued traits. Results based on UKBiobank data are robust to family-based designs and replicate in other UK surveys. Effects are strongest in disadvantaged areas and among males, highlighting how large-scale public policies can leave persistent imprints on population composition through selective survival. |
| Keywords: | early-life, health systems, survival bias, infant mortality, genetics, polygenic index, UK Biobank, ESSGN |
| JEL: | I10 I38 C21 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18395 |
| By: | Philipp Erfurth (University of Bologna); María Gómez León (Departament d’Anàlisi Econòmica, Universitat de València); Giacomo Gabbuti (Institute of Economics Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna Pisa); Branko Milanović (Graduate Center City University of New York and Institute for International Economics, LSE) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a methodological contribution to the study of historical income inequality by examining the construction and use of social tables for the nineteenth century. In a period when modern household surveys were absent, social tables represent one of the only feasible approaches for providing distributional evidence for the entire population. At the same time, existing studies rely on a wide range of assumptions, classifications, and data treatments, which makes comparisons across countries and over time difficult. The paper reviews the main methodological challenges involved in constructing social tables, including class definitions, within-group inequality, units of analysis, and the external validation of income levels and subsistence benchmarks. Using simulations and historical examples, it shows how alternative methodological choices can generate substantial differences in inequality estimates. It finally proposes a set of guiding principles and template structures aimed at improving comparability, while still preserving the country-specific nature of historical evidence. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, social tables, nineteenth century, global inequality |
| JEL: | D31 J31 N30 B41 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0296 |
| By: | Maria Ventura |
| Abstract: | From medieval artisans and craftsmen to modern political dynasties and nepo babies, many people choose to go into the same career as their parents. |
| Date: | 2026–02–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:731 |
| By: | Heather Hennerich |
| Abstract: | Watching 'It's a Wonderful Life' may spark curiosity about building and loans. Here's why they were important in the early decades of the 1900s. |
| Date: | 2025–12–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00100:102787 |
| By: | Daniel M. Covitz; Eric Engstrom |
| Abstract: | Increases in far-forward nominal interest rates in recent years have been remarkable. For example, the increase in the 9- to 10-year forward Treasury rate over the past five years is the largest since its extraordinary ramp-ups in the late 1970s and early 1980s (Figure 1). The increase in far-forward rates is consequential for the economy because higher forward rates mean higher long-term Treasury yields, which boosts the current cost of long-term credit to households and businesses. Indeed, more than 80 percent of the variation in annual changes in the 10-year Treasury yield over the past 50 years can be explained with a simple regression of the 10-year yield on changes in the 9-to-10 year forward rate. |
| Date: | 2026–02–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:102804 |
| By: | John Van Reenen |
| Abstract: | How the study of innovation and competition has been transformed. |
| Keywords: | Growth, Creative destruction, Nobel, Innovation, , Productivity |
| Date: | 2026–02–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:722 |
| By: | Murali, Palanichamy; Singh, Naveen Prakash; Jain, Rajni; Jagadeshwaran, Pachiyappan; Govindaraj, Perumal |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:icarpp:396195 |
| By: | Fayçal Sawadogo; Kiran Rimal; Maria Sarrabayrouse; Uzochukwu Alutu; Grace Ashley; Ms. Jia Chen |
| Abstract: | This note presents the key updates and revenue development highlights of the 2026 version of the IMF's World Revenue Longitudinal Database (WoRLD), a comprehensive dataset that tracks government revenue trends since the early 1980s, using the classification of the Government Finance Statistics Manual. With data for 195 countries, including 191 IMF member countries, WoRLD provides policymakers, researchers, and the public with invaluable insights into the evolution of the level and composition of revenues and tax revenues. Key updates for the 2026 publication include extending country coverage to Aruba and Liechtenstein and time coverage to 2024. |
| Keywords: | government finance statistics; Middle East and Central Asia; Middle East; Asia and Pacific; Central Asia; Western Hemisphere; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Europe; nontax revenues; revenue development; tax revenues; World Revenue Longitudinal Database |
| Date: | 2026–03–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imftnm:2026/005 |
| By: | Woolcock, Stephen |
| Abstract: | This article puts current developments in US trade policy in an historical context. It identifies three broad types of trade statecraft the US has pursued since 1945: alliance politics, promoting an international trade order that serves the national interest and unilateralism. It argues that US trade statecraft has exhibited all three types. What has changed has been the relative importance of each in any given period. The article illustrates this in three broad time periods: 1945 to the early 1970s, when US trade statecraft pursued ‘alliance politics’; the early 1970s to the mid 2010s when US statecraft was shaped by two-level trade diplomacy aimed at promoting a trading order that served US interests; and finally, 2016 to the present day and the turn to unilateralism. Unilateralism, always latent in US decision making, has now come to the fore because key policy makers see diminishing political and commercial returns from promoting an international trade order. This trend is likely to result in a diminished US role in world trade. |
| Keywords: | US trade statecraft; decision making autonomy; World Trade Organisation; unilateralism |
| JEL: | L81 |
| Date: | 2026–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137440 |
| By: | L. Randall Wray |
| Abstract: | The over-hyped Dot.com revolution bubbled and crashed at the end of the 1990s, leaving a largely unused physical and virtual infrastructure that eventually supported the rise of social media that did--indeed--transform life. Not necessarily in a good way. As Robert Gordon famously claimed, you can see the evidence of the digital revolution everywhere except in the data. Still, many billionaires were minted. After nearly a quarter century of growth, it seemed to have run its course until digital tech moved into the payments system promising another revolution based on cryptocurrencies. That, too, was over-hyped until Trump's reelection loosened rules to allow crypto to infect the financial system, targeting in particular the accumulated retirement savings of Americans. More billionaires minted. As P.T. Barnum (purportedly) proclaimed, "there's a sucker born every minute" and they add up but the number is still finite. The latest revolution is AI and it has generated the biggest bubble, by far. We are still in the early stages, but not only is AI almost single-handedly driving the stock market, it is also driving the "real" economy with its investments in data centers. One-hundred and three American billionaires were created since 2024, many of those owing to AI-related stock prices and investments. This paper will look in detail at the claims made for AI, the financial arrangements that are supporting its growth, and the dangers it poses for the US (and global) economies. While some argue that the current bubble looks little like the Dot.com bubble, that is true, but beside the point. The fragile financing of the AI bubble looks much more like the financial shenanigans that crashed into the Global Financial Crisis, and--unlike the Dot.com bubble that left us with a physical infrastructure that would eventually prove useful--the AI bubble will leave behind waste and destruction. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence; financial fragility, AI bubble; tech billionaires; financial fraud; technological revolution; Dot.com bubble; Global Financial Crisis; fraud; innovation; labor displacement by robots |
| JEL: | B52 E22 E32 O11 O16 O31 O38 O43 P17 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1107 |
| By: | Gabriele Mariani;; Bea Cantillon; |
| Abstract: | Research on long relative income poverty trends has often been hindered by the lack of reliable data sources for the earlier years in the trend. This is particularly true for Belgium, which lacks a unique data source for the period preceding the establishment of EU-SILC. Recently, BE-PARADIS, a Belgian interuniversity project, has contributed to filling this gap by harmonizing the different surveys available for the 1980s and 1990s, and reconstituting a more consistent income trend between 1985 and 2021. By employing the dataset developed by the BE-PARADIS project, and by using original data to integrate an extra poverty estimate for Flanders for 1976, in this working paper we analyze the evolution of distinct income poverty indicators across the whole population and by several socio-economic subgroups. Specifically, we observe how relative income poverty – calculated both by using a 60% and 40% median income threshold – evolved among the workingage population, pensioners, individuals with a low educational degree, and individuals living in very low work intensity households. We also trace the evolution of the anchored poverty rate, the poverty gap, and the median equivalized household income over time and across the already mentioned subgroups. While relative income poverty declined between 2018 and 2021, we find that this increased during the decade 2008-2018. The evolution of the income poverty rate, calculated using the 40% threshold, follows a similar trend, and the poverty gap also shrunk between 2018 and 2021. Moreover, we show that the increase in median yearly incomes strengthened between 2018 and 2021. The subgroups’ analysis reveals that, while income poverty declined strongly among pensioners, particularly between 2006 and 2014, it increased among the working-age between 2008 and 2018. Low educated individuals and those living in very low work intensity households also became poorer between 2005 and 2018, but their poverty rates decreased between 2018 and 2021. While the decline after 2018 brought overall and working-age income poverty down to historically low levels, for the lower educated and those in low work intensity households, in 2021 poverty remained higher than at the onset of the trend – whether one considers the shorter EU-SILC trend from 2004 or the long trend since 1985, or even 1976. This prompts questions on what made these specific groups poorer during the years of increasing relative poverty, and how this explains the upward poverty trend before 2018. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hdl:wpaper:2506 |
| By: | Angel de la Fuente |
| Abstract: | En esta nota se describe brevemente la última actualización de RegData, una base de datos que recoge los principales agregados económicos y demográficos de las regiones españolas durante las últimas seis décadas. En su mayoría, las series comienzan en 1950 o 1955 y se extienden hasta 2024. En años recientes, la información que ofrece RegData coincide con las últimas series oficiales que publica el INE. Estas series se enlazan con series oficiales anteriores y con otras fuentes con el fin de obtener series enlazadas homogéneas que se extienden hacia atrás tanto como ha sido posible. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2026-07 |
| By: | Ken-Ichi Akao; Stefano Bartolini |
| Abstract: | Over the past half century in the US, substantial economic growth coexisted with increasing inequality, and the erosion of social capital and well-being. Currently, no comprehensive explanations is available for such paradoxical mix of brilliant eco- nomic performance and social crises. We present a simple endogenous growth model showing that economic growth, the decline of social capital and well-being, and rising well-being inequality can be interconnected, mutually reinforcing phenomena. This type of growth can be described as defensive because it arises from the expendi- tures of households aimed at defending themselves against growth-related negative externalities, thus fostering economic growth. Defensive growth leads to a loss of well-being in the long run because, beyond a certain level of output, private pros- perity is no longer able to compensate for social poverty. Along a defensive growth path, the decline of social capital disproportionately weighs on the well-being of low- income households, because of their relatively lower capacity to finance defensive spending. This prediction is consistent with the evidence showing that over the past 50 years the loser of the "pursuit of happiness" stated in the American Constitution is the working class. |
| Keywords: | Defensive growth, social capital, relative consumption Jel Classification: O41, I31, D31, Z13 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usi:wpaper:941 |
| By: | Geoffrey Wodtke (University of Chicago Department of Sociology Stone Center for Research on Wealth Inequality and Mobility); Weiqi Wang (University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy Stone Center for Research on Wealth Inequality and Mobility); Kristina Butaeva (University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy Stone Center for Research on Wealth Inequality and Mobility); Steven N. Durlauf (Harris School of Public Policy Stone Center for Research on Wealth Inequality and Mobility and NBER) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies contemporary trends in class mobility using a new approach based on the “synthetic dynasties†represented in Markov chains. This approach yields several novel measures of movement and memory, which respectively capture how class positions differ from one generation to the next and how the influence of class origins dissipates across generations. Applying these methods to data from the U.S., we find that overall levels of movement and memory have remained largely stable across cohorts born between 1945 and 1990. This stability, however, masks offsetting class-specific trends. Among those from the upper and lower classes, movement has declined and memory has increased. In contrast, among the middle classes, movement has risen and memory has weakened. |
| JEL: | D30 H0 J01 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2026-25 |
| By: | Elisabeth Preyer (University of Bern); Eric Strobl (University of Bern) |
| Abstract: | Despite stagnant economic and living conditions, early 20th-century colonial Jamaica experienced a remarkable increase in life expectancy — a phenomenon referred to as the Jamaica Paradox. One factor believed to be key in this transformation was the Hookworm Campaign (1919-1936), an island-wide, multi-faceted public health initiative to eradicate hookworm, a tropical parasite that can severely weaken the immune system. Using parish-level mortality data and an event study framework, we investigate whether the campaign reduced mortality rates in Jamaica. Results show that infant deaths declined by 10% in the first year, cumulating to 41% within ten years. Mortality among other age groups also fell, although with several years of delay and lower effects. Our estimates suggest that by WWII the hookworm eradication effort increased life expectancy at birth by 5-15 years. A `back of the envelope' cost-benefit analysis reveals that the benefits in terms of spared infant deaths alone were multiple times the campaign costs, where the local population shouldered much of the overall costs. |
| Keywords: | Jamaica, hookworm, public campaign, mortality |
| JEL: | I18 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0297 |
| By: | Tetsuji Okazaki (The Faculty of Economics, Meiji Gakuin University and The University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the meaning and outcomes of the Production Capacity Expansion Plan formulated and implemented in Japan during the World War II. In addition to laying the foundation for military expansion, ministries in charge of economic policies, including the Ministry of Finance, aimed to expand Japanʼs macroeconomic supply capacity by this plan. Given the unavoidable persistent large-scale military expenditures, the Ministry of Finance and other economic ministries accepted and promoted the Production Capacity Expansion Plan as economic policies for expanding the countryʼs productive capacity. Regarding the outcomes, the paper shows that while the achievement rate of the production targets was low, the original Four-Year Plan was largely achieved in terms of production capacity. In terms of consistency with the Materials Mobilization Plan, both the production plans and the materials allocation plans maintained a high degree of consistency through 1941 FY; however, in 1942 FY, consistency̶particularly in the materials allocation plans̶declined significantly. As for the long-term results, quantitative analysis demonstrates that from 1937 onward, the industries targeted by the Four-Year Production Capacity Expansion Plan experienced higher growth rates of employment than other industries, including heavy and chemical industries. The gap in scale that emerged between the targeted and non-targeted industries in the early 1940s persisted until the early 1950s. The long-term impact of the Production Capacity Expansion Plans on the scale of the industry in terms of employment is consistent with the finding that the expansion of production capacity had largely achieved the original targets by fiscal year 1941. This suggests that the facilities expanded under these plans may have supported production in the targeted industries through the postwar reconstruction period. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:jseres:2026cj314 |
| By: | Becker, Sascha O (University of Warwick and Monash University) |
| Abstract: | This chapter explores the intersection of religion and economics on the 250th anniversary of Adam Smith's The Wealth of Nations, first published in 1776. While Smith is often viewed as a secular figure in economics, his work was deeply influenced by the moral philosophy of his time, which was shaped by Christian thought. I discuss how economists think about the religious themes in Smith's work in the 21st century and review what we know today about the connection between religion and economic outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Adam Smith; religion JEL Classification: B1, B2, N3, N9, P5, Z12 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:789 |
| By: | Ikwuemesi, Chinenye Egbuna |
| Abstract: | This article proposes 'the Dorian Grayisation of the Black body' as a framework for analysing how racism created the infrastructure enabling imperial violence at unprecedented scale and durability through spatial and corporeal distribution: inscribing violence on Black bodies and Black land whilst maintaining metropolitan narratives of civilisation. Drawing on Oscar Wilde's The Picture of Dorian Gray as a conceptual apparatus, I demonstrate that racism was not incidental to imperial violence but its operational foundation: permanent hereditary status, legal property designation, visible inherited marking, and moral justification that endured across centuries. African bodies and African land functioned as quarantined spaces where violence required for European and American 'civilisation' could be perfected, allowing metropolitan centres to maintain narratives of enlightenment, progress, and moral superiority. Through historical analysis of concentration camps, medical experimentation, bureaucratic genocide, and surveillance systems, I show that techniques perfected on Black bodies through this spatial and corporeal distribution are eventually deployed more broadly. The framework demonstrates how racism created an infrastructure within which powerful men could operate without constraint, refining techniques across generations through normalised administrative practice. Once operational, this machinery proved transferable beyond initial racial boundaries. Contemporary developments in the United States (2025-2026) provide empirical evidence that this containment mechanism is failing. The portrait splits, and violence previously confined through spatial and corporeal separation enters white metropolitan life. This framework contributes to necropolitics, critical race studies, and analyses of how power operates through the spatial and corporeal distribution of consequences, demonstrating how violence enabled by racism ultimately threatens the societies that created it. Keywords: spatial and corporeal distribution, necropolitics, racial capitalism, systemic violence, Dorian Gray, imperial violence, concentration camps, medical experimentation, surveillance, epistemological violence |
| Date: | 2026–02–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:jnzmc_v1 |
| By: | Brey, Björn (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Cefalá, Edoardo (Dept. of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business); García-Peñalosa, Cecilia (The National Centre for Scientific Research, Aix Marseille School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Gender equality and economic growth have historically tended to move together yet identifying causal effects has been difficult. This paper uses data on the support for female suffrage in Switzerland in order to explore the impact of technology adoption on gender norms. We argue that the early adoption of electricity was conducive to local economic development, which in turn led to more egalitarian views on gender. To identify causality, we exploit geographic differences in the potential to generate electricity from waterpower. Our results show that early electricity adoption (by the 1910s) had a lasting impact on municipality vote shares in support of female suffrage in the groundbreaking 1959 referendum. We complement this finding with Cantonal referendums on female voting rights and federal electoral results to show that higher support for female political participation is observed in the data since the 1920s. We then examine how technology may have shaped gender attitudes and find that increased educational investment explains part of the shift. Fertility appears to respond to changing gender norms and reinforce them, but is unlikely the keymechanism in the causal chain. |
| Keywords: | Technological change; industrialization; womens rights |
| JEL: | J16 N33 O14 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–02–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2026_003 |
| By: | Ohler, Johann |
| Abstract: | Evolutionary growth theory (i.e., Galor and Moav (2002) and Clark (2007)) posits that natural selection set the stage for modern growth. I leverage micro-data from historical Germany to assess the viability of the selection mechanisms. I estimate fertility differentials and the inter-generational transmission of SES. High status couples, proxied by occupation, had 1-2 additional children, and SES was strongly heritable. To explore whether these parameters induce selection, I simulate an overlapping generation model of fertility choice and status transmission. The German parameters do not enable Clark’s survival of the richest, whereas Galor and Moav’s selection on quality can arise if the returns to investing in child quality are sufficiently large. Monte Carlo simulations extend the analysis beyond Germany. Survival of the richest requires exceptionally high coefficients of transmission (≈0.87), and selection on quality emerges whenever returns to quality investments translate into higher fertility. Both depend on the strong heritability of the growth-complementary traits. |
| Keywords: | socioeconomic status; fertility; inter-generational mobility; endogenous growth theory; survival of the riches; historical demography |
| JEL: | O40 J12 J13 J62 N33 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:137404 |
| By: | Leonardo Costa Ribeiro (Federal University of Minas Gerais); Jonatan Andersson (Uppsala University); William Skoglund (Lund University); Jakob Molinder (Uppsala University); Martin Önnerfors (Uppsala University) |
| Abstract: | A large literature in economic history uses digitized census data to study individual-level outcomes in history. Although many census records have been digitized manually, the process is extremely labor-intensive, and substantial material remains unprocessed in archives. Recent advances in machine learning offer the potential to automate large part of this work. We demonstrate an end-to-end digitization pipeline based on the transformer-based Donut model, trained on hand-annotated data and enhanced with image augmentation, to extract information from the 1955 Stockholm tax and census records. The resulting output attains high accuracy across multiple evaluation metrics. |
| Keywords: | Digitization, Census, OCR, Transformers |
| JEL: | N01 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0298 |
| By: | Riccardo Ghidoni; David Schindler |
| Abstract: | During World War II, French Moroccan troops performed numerous acts of (sexual) violence against the Italian population, known in Italy as the Marocchinate. We demonstrate that these events led to contagion in prejudice: They triggered a pronounced shift to the far right following the recent mass influx of migrants from Syria, the Middle East and Northern Africa. Survey results provide no evidence of intergenerational transmission of attitudes but identify selective recall of collective memory as a likely channel. |
| Keywords: | collective memory, contagion, WWII, associative recall |
| JEL: | N34 N44 D72 D91 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12376 |
| By: | McMahon, James |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the timing of labour strikes in Hollywood. The occurrence of strikes, such as the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes in 2023, can make sense when we have the hindsight to piece together the historical details of what created rifts between labour and management. But why do strikes in Hollywood occur when they do? Are there periods of time when it is more likely that contract negotiations will break down and unions in Hollywood will go on strike? This paper uses multiple sources of empirical data to analyse the historical trends of strikes in Hollywood between 1950 and 2023. Strikes in Hollywood - particularly by the WGA and SAG-AFTRA - have common political economic roots. They tend to occur when the profits of major Hollywood studios are in a type of danger zone: when the differential profits of Hollywood are stagnating or declining. Differential profit is a relative measure of performance. Differential profit can be found in any situation where a firm or set of firms holds a better stream of income than what others hold. For example, differential gains still occur when a firm loses profit at a slower rate than others. In the case of the Hollywood studios, differential profit is measured against Dominant Capital, which is our proxy for the S&P 500. The paper argues that danger zones of differential accumulation hurt Hollywood labour because Hollywood's major studios often rely on stagflation to differentially profit. As a combination of unemployment and inflation, stagflation is antagonistic to union demands for increased employment, job security, or higher wages. In Hollywood, strikes tend to occur during periods when film production is stagnating. The longest absence of strikes was from 1990 to 2000, when Hollywood reversed its stagflation strategy and released films at a level that was not seen in decades. Stagflation also has an influence on the management-artist hierarchy in Hollywood. While standard artist contracts in Hollywood construct a hierarchical structure that effectively prevents artists from exercising moral rights in opposition to aesthetic changes by management, increases of stagflation in Hollywood increase the employment size of management, both absolutely and relative to the collective employment size of actors, directors, producers, and writers. |
| Keywords: | differential accumulation, dominant capital, Hollywood, labour power, profit, stagflation, strikes |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:capwps:337455 |
| By: | Bjorn Brey; Edoardo Cefala; Cecilia Garcia-Peñalosa |
| Abstract: | Gender equality and economic growth have historically tended to move together yet identifying causal effects has been difficult. This paper uses data on the support for female suffrage in Switzerland in order to explore the impact of technology adoption on gender norms. We argue that the early adoption of electricity was conducive to local economic development, which in turn led to more egalitarian views on gender. To identify causality, we exploit geographic differences in the potential to generate electricity from waterpower. Our results show that early electricity adoption (by the 1910s) had a lasting impact on municipality vote shares in support of female suffrage in the ground-breaking 1959 referendum. We complement this finding with Cantonal referendums on female voting rights and federal electoral results to show that higher support for female political participation is observed in the data since the 1920s. We then examine how technology may have shaped gender attitudes and find that increased educational investment explains part of the shift. Fertility appears to respond to changing gender norms and reinforce them, but is unlikely the key mechanism in the causal chain. |
| Keywords: | technological change, industrialization, women’s rights, suffrage |
| JEL: | J16 N33 O14 O33 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12513 |
| By: | Fliers, Philip; Maphosa, Lloyd Melusi; Turner, John D. |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine the transplantation of British company law into the Cape Colony in the late nineteenth century. The Cape Colony Companies Act of 1892 was like its British counterpart in that it provided minimal investor protection. This meant that promoters were free to choose the level and types of shareholder safeguards in their company's articles of association. We analyse the shareholder protection offered in the articles of Cape Colony companies established in the decade after 1892. We find that Cape companies offered higher protection than British ones. They were also much more likely to adopt the gold-standard blueprint articles of association from the Act's appendix. We find that companies adopting these blueprint articles had more diffuse ownership but lower survival rates, suggesting trade-offs between investor protection and corporate longevity in the Cape Colony. |
| Keywords: | company law, legal transplant, investor protection, corporate governance, Africa, Cape Colony |
| JEL: | G32 G34 K22 N27 N47 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:337473 |
| By: | Nicolas Brisset (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur); Raphaël Fèvre (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Abstract: | This article traces the emergence of a new type of economist in interwar France—the conjuncturist—through a study focusing on Alfred Sauvy and Robert Marjolin. We argue that these neglected figures helped to shape a new, autonomous, field of expertise that consisted of diagnosing and forecasting the economic situation to guide public decision making. As we show, the history of the conjuncturists is closely linked to that of the Popular Front in general, and to its emblematic law on the forty-hour week in particular. By becoming the most vocal opponents of this law, the conjuncturists fomented an open mutiny against the very government that had given them their first prominent position, in order to obtain the repeal of the forty-hour week, which Sauvy achieved in November 1938. Although the Popular Front was by then a thing of the past, and a future war with Germany had become the most likely outcome, the figure of the conjuncturist had succeeded in firmly occupying the institutional landscape of 1940s France—a form of economic expertise that was henceforth inseparable from political activity itself. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05512073 |