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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | Martha Bailey; Paul Mohnen; A.R. Shariq Mohammed |
| Abstract: | We construct two new large-scale datasets to measure relative and upward educational mobility by sex, race, class, and childhood county of residence for cohorts born in 1910–1919 and 1982–1997. We show that both relative and upward educational mobility rose over the 20th century, with historically disadvantaged groups experiencing the largest gains. We also document substantial geographic convergence over the 20th century: both within and across regions, where children live matters much less for their educational mobility today than it did at midcentury. Using a state-border design, we show that greater public investments in primary and secondary education were an important driver of upward educational mobility in the early and late 20th century, but public investments in postsecondary education emerged as a similarly important determinant in the late 20th century. |
| Keywords: | education; inequality; intergenerational mobility |
| JEL: | J62 I24 I28 N32 |
| Date: | 2026–01–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedawp:102338 |
| By: | Julia Cagé (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research); Edgard Dewitte (Nuffield - Nuffield - University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | We study electoral campaigns over the long run, through the lens of their spending. We build a novel, exhaustive dataset on U.K. general elections from 1857 to 2017. We provide quantitative insights on the history of campaigns, including the shift away from paid staff toward advertising. We then show that the correlation between candidate spending and votes has strongly increased since the 1880s, peaking in the last quarter of the twentieth century. We link this pattern to the introduction of new information technologies—in particular, local radio and the Internet—and to the transformations of campaign strategies. |
| Date: | 2025–10–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05446470 |
| By: | Galor, Oded |
| Abstract: | What ignited humanity's momentous ascent from millennia of stagnation to an era of sustained economic growth? And what are the roots of the vast disparities in the wealth of nations? These enduring mysteries, which have preoccupied scholars across generations, lie at the core of Unified Growth Theory. This encompassing framework captures the evolution of societies over the entire course of human history and identifies the universal wheels of change that governed humanity's long journey, propelled the growth process, and shaped inequality across the globe. The theory uncovers the forces underlying the dramatic transformation in living standards over the past two centuries, emerging from an economic ice age of near stagnation, while highlighting the enduring historical roots of the immense divergence in the prosperity of nations. It suggests that forces set in motion in the distant past played a pivotal role in shaping development across the globe and remain essential for the design of effective policies that foster economic progress and mitigate inequality in the wealth of nations. |
| Keywords: | Growth, Inequality, Unified Growth Theory, Human Capital, Demographic Transition, Malthusian epoch |
| JEL: | I25 J10 O10 O40 Z10 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1704 |
| By: | Colvin, Christopher L.; Fourie, Johan |
| Abstract: | We define applied economic history as the systematic use of historical reasoning to address economic policy problems. Building on work in applied history, we argue that economic history contributes to policy not by offering ready-made lessons, but by disciplining the narratives and analogies that policymakers and the public use. Unlike conventional economic history, which begins with a past episode and asks explanatory questions, an applied approach starts from a current problem and works backwards to identify relevant historical parallels. Selecting cases, however, is only the first step: their policy relevance depends on the narratives through which they are interpreted and put to use. We synthesise work from narrative economics, organisational history, and media and memory studies to clarify how historical narratives are conceptualised as shaping beliefs and behaviour, but also how they mislead when stripped of context. Applied economic history therefore requires careful narrative construction, standards for comparison, attention to difference as well as similarity, and transparency about uncertainty. We conclude by outlining how changes to training, incentives, and institutions could support engagement by economic historians with policymaking. |
| Keywords: | applied economic history, analogical reasoning, policymaking, narrative economics |
| JEL: | B41 D78 H11 N01 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:335019 |
| By: | Juan C. Gon\c{c}alves-Dosantos; Ricardo Mart\'inez; Juan D. Moreno-Ternero; Joaqu\'in S\'anchez-Soriano |
| Abstract: | We explore the resolution of claims problems with history. At a given period of time, a group of agents holds claims over an insufficient endowment, as they did in previous periods. The solution to the present-period problem might be influenced by the solutions at previous-periods problems (history). We introduce a natural historical operator, which extends standard rules (solving one-shot claims problems) to construct rules that solve claims problems with history. We study the preservation of properties by this operator and also obtain a characterization result for it. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.13385 |
| By: | Anna Bindler; Randi Hjalmarsson; Stephen Machin; Melissa Rubio-Ramos |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how and why anti-Irish sentiment in 19th century England spills over onto jury decisions at London’s Old Bailey Central Criminal Court. We classify the (perceived) ethnicity of courtroom participants according to whether they have distinctly Irish or English surnames based on place of birth in the 1881 census. Irish-named defendants have significantly worse outcomes: juries are 3% more likely to convict Irish-named defendants and 16% less likely to recommend mercy in sentencing. Sentencing gaps are larger for violent crimes and robust to different classifications of surname Irishness, as well as to the inclusion of case and defendant controls. We argue that these findings are unlikely to be driven by correlated unobservable case or trial characteristics (like defense quality). Rather, we provide two pieces of evidence consistent with the gaps being driven by animus towards those perceived to be Irish. First, taking advantage of exogenous variation in expected punishment driven by the abolition of capital punishment, we show that juries react differentially to shifts in extraneous factors when the defendant is Irish- versus English-named. Second, these gaps are not limited to Irish- named defendants but also seen for other courtroom participants – namely Irish-named victims. Finally, we trace out the longer run evolution of these gaps throughout the 1800s: they first emerge during the capital punishment reform period, widen during the mid-century Irish Potato Famine induced migration to London, and thereafter remain primarily stable. |
| Keywords: | Irish, crime, criminal law, discrimination, economic history |
| JEL: | K42 K14 J15 N33 N93 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2152 |
| By: | Claridge, Jordan; Delabastita, Vincent; Gibbs, Spike |
| Abstract: | This paper moves beyond the focus on ‘average’ wage trends in pre-industrial economies by examining the broad diversity of pay rates and forms of remuneration across occupations and regions in medieval England. We find that whilst some workers enjoyed substantial growth in wage rates after the Black Death, there was a large group who experienced no real increases. We argue that wage inequal-ity in post-Black Death England reflects the uneven penetration of market forces across occupations and regions, with deep-rooted customary structures continuing to shape remuneration. Its findings suggest that a more nuanced approach is essential for understanding the complexities and continuities of pre-industrial labour dynamics. |
| Keywords: | inequality; labour markets; medieval England; wages |
| JEL: | J33 J42 N33 N53 |
| Date: | 2026–01–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:131086 |
| By: | Antonin Bergeaud; Ruveyda Nur Gozen; John Van Reenen |
| Abstract: | We introduce a methodology to measure cross-country trends in innovation capability - "technological trajectories" and implement this on a new rich dataset covering patents between 1836 and 2016 across multiple countries. Intuitively, trajectories are revealed by a country's sustained increases in patenting across multiple patent offices. We first describe the data patterns, showing the relative decline of the UK, and the rise first of the US and Germany, and then later of Japan and China. We then econometrically estimate trajectories on (i) the post-1902 period for France, Germany, Japan, the UK and US, and (ii) the post-1960 period for a wider sample of 40 countries. Our trajectories are strongly positively correlated with Total Factor Productivity growth, and also (but less strongly) associated with the growth of labour productivity and capital intensity. We show that future trajectories are predicted by a country’s initial levels of R&D, education and defence spending, classic drivers of innovation in modern growth theory. |
| Keywords: | patents, technical progress, economic history, innovation |
| Date: | 2026–01–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2146 |
| By: | Bhalotra. Sonia (Department of Economics, University of Warwick, CAGE, IFS, CEPR, RFBerlin, IZA, CESifo); Clarke, Damian (Department of Economics, Universidad de Chile, University of Exeter, and IZA); Venkataramani, Atheendar (Department of Medical Ethics and Health Policy, University of Pennsylvania and NBER) |
| Abstract: | We leverage the introduction of the first antibiotic therapies in 1937 to examine the long run effects of early childhood pneumonia on adult educational attainment, employment, income, and work-related disability. Using census data, we document large average gains on all outcomes, alongside substantial heterogeneity by race and gender. On average, Black men exhibit smaller schooling gains than white men but larger employment and earnings gains. Among Black men (and women), we identify a pronounced gradient in gains linked to systemic racial discrimination in the pre–Civil Rights era: individuals born in more discriminatory Jim Crow states realized much smaller gains than those born in less discriminatory states. There is no similar gradient among white Americans. Women of both races exhibit smaller education and earnings gains than men on average, consistent with cultural and institutional barriers to women’s work. Our findings highlight the role of opportunities in shaping the extent to which investments in early-life health translate into longer run economic gains. |
| Keywords: | early childhood ; medical innovation ; race; human capital production ; education ; income ; disability ; systemic discrimination ; institutions ; infectious disease ; pneumonia ; antibiotics ; sulfa drugs JEL codes: I10 ; I14 ; J71 ; H70 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1594 |
| By: | Alina K Bartscher (Frankfurt School of Finance and Management); Moritz Kuhn (University of Mannheim = Universität Mannheim, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research, IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics); Moritz Schularick (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Kiel Institute for the World Economy - Kiel Institute for the World Economy, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research); Ulrike I Steins |
| Abstract: | Using new household-level data, we study the secular increase in U.S. household debt and its distribution since 1950. Most of the debt were mortgages, which initially grew because more households borrowed. Yet after 1980, debt mostly grew because households borrowed more. We uncover home equity extraction, concentrated in the white middle class, as the largest cause, strongly affecting intergenerational inequality and life-cycle debt profiles. Remarkably, the additional debt did not lower households' net worth because of rising house prices. We conclude that asset-price-based borrowing became an integral part of households' consumption-saving decisions, yet at the cost of higher financial fragility. |
| Keywords: | Household debt, Home equity extraction, Inequality, Household portfolios, Financial fragility |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05448445 |
| By: | Horioka, Charles Yuji |
| Abstract: | The primary objective of this paper is to explore the determinants of the level of, and trends over time in, Japan's household saving rate, with emphasis on the impact of the age structure of the population, and to make projections about future trends therein. The paper finds that Japan's household saving rate has not always been high either absolutely or relative to other countries, contrary to popular belief, and that, if we confine ourselves to the postwar period, it was only during the 25-year period from 1961 to 1986 that it exceeded 15%. Past and future trends in Japan's household saving rate can largely be explained by changes in the age structure of her population, but declines in the saving rate of retired elderly households is a more important explanation for the recent decline in the household saving rate. However, it is likely that other factors such as the unavailability of consumer credit, the unavailability of social safety nets, high rates of economic (income) growth, tax breaks for saving, saving promotion policies, and high and rising land and housing prices are also partial explanations for why Japan's aggregate household saving rate was so high during the 1961-86 period and why it declined so much subsequently. As for future trends in Japan's aggregate household saving rate, it is likely to fall even further though not necessarily at a rapid rate. |
| Keywords: | age structure of the population, household consumption, household saving, Japanese economy, life-cycle hypothesis or model, population ageing, public pensions, saving promotion, social safety nets, wealth accumulation |
| JEL: | D10 D11 D12 D14 D15 D64 E21 H55 J14 J26 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:02000259 |
| By: | Harold L Cole (University of Pennsylvania); Stefano Cravero (University of Pennsylvania); Jeremy Greenwood (University of Pennsylvania) |
| Abstract: | The Second Industrial Revolution sparked a wave of new products and industrial processes, fueling an optimistic Roaring Twenties. But did excitement about technological progress contribute to an over accumulation of investment, despite a slowdown in new product development and satiated demand during the 1920s? And, was this over investment worsened by continuous process innovation? Could these factors have played a role in triggering the Great Depression? To explore these questions, a macroeconomic model that incorporates both process and product innovation is proposed. Proof-of-concept simulations are performed to assess whether these factors can help explain the Great Depression. The answer is yes. |
| Keywords: | Great Depression, Over Accumulation, Process Innovation, Product Innovation, Rational Exuberance, Roaring Twenties, Satiation, Second Industrial Revolution, Technological Progress |
| JEL: | E13 E22 E24 E32 N12 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eag:rereps:42 |
| By: | Parker, Emily; Mjelde, James; Ng, Desmond; Weber, Kaitlyn |
| Keywords: | Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361137 |
| By: | Neil Wilson; Richard Tye; Andrew Berkeley |
| Abstract: | This paper challenges the widespread public and institutional misconception that legal tender laws in English law compel creditors to accept payment in a specific form. We argue that legal tender is a narrow, procedural artefact with diminishing practical relevance. Through an analysis of statutory provisions, common law, and the Civil Procedure Rules, we demonstrate that legal tender serves not as a substantive right to discharge debts but as a limited procedural defense concerning liability for costs in litigation. By examining the institutional mechanisms for settling private contractual debts and public statutory obligations, such as taxes, we show that settlement occurs almost exclusively through electronic, bank-mediated systems. The paper concludes that the operational currency of the modern state is not physical legal tender but central bank reserves and commercial bank money, rendering legal tender a concept of largely historical and symbolic significance. |
| Keywords: | Legal tender; Monetary law; Tax obligations; Payment systems |
| JEL: | B50 E42 K12 K34 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1103 |
| By: | Horioka, Charles Yuji |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the impact of the age structure of the population on the household saving rate using time-series data for Japan for the 1955-2019 period. It finds that there is a cointegrating relationship between Japan's household saving rate and her dependency ratio (the ratio of the dependent population to the working-age population) and that the latter has a negative and statistically significant impact on the former. This implies that the life-cycle model applies in the case of Japan, that trends over time in the age structure of Japan's population can largely explain trends over time in Japan's household saving rate, that the downward trend in Japan's household saving rate since the mid-1970s can largely be explained by the aging of her population, and that further population aging will lead to further declines in Japan's household saving rate, most likely into negative territory, in future years. |
| Keywords: | age structure of the population, cointegration, cointegrating vector, household saving, Japan, life-cycle hypothesis, life-cycle model, population aging, saving rate, unit roots |
| JEL: | D12 D14 D15 E21 J11 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:02000258 |
| By: | Rosa Maria Marques (Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo); Rémy Herrera (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | We examine the gap between the place assigned to the state in the thinking of Mises and Hayek and the policies applied by neoliberalism, i.e. its size and degree of indebtedness at a time when the economy is coming under the control of interest-bearing capital. We show that the ideas of these authors, notably on the relationship between state and society, but also in defense of meritocracy as a means of access to goods and services, were mobilized to justify the centrality of this capital and its expansion into areas hitherto managed by the state (Part I). Then we shall see that, contrary to the rhetoric, the facts indicate that the state continues to expand under neoliberalism, even if its field of activity is narrowing in social matters (Part II). |
| Abstract: | Nous examinons ici l'écart existant entre la place attribuée à l'État dans les pensées de von Mises et d'Hayek et les politiques appliquées par le néolibéralisme, c'est-à-dire sa taille et son endettement à une époque où l'économie passe sous contrôle du capital porteur d'intérêts. Nous montrons que les idées de ces auteurs, notamment sur les rapports entre l'État et la société, mais aussi en défense de la méritocratie comme moyen d'accès aux biens et services, ont été mobilisées pour justifier la centralité de ce capital et son expansion dans des domaines jusque-là gérés par l'État (Partie I). Puis nous verrons que, contrairement aux discours, les faits indiquent que l'État continue à se développer dans le néolibéralisme, même si son champ d'activités se rétrécit en matière sociale (Partie II). |
| Keywords: | (von) Mises, Social security, Social policies, Neoliberalism, State, Hayek, État, Néolibéralisme, Sécurité sociale, Politiques sociales |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05433084 |
| By: | Fabio Petri |
| Abstract: | This is a rejoinder to professor Schefold’s 2022 reply to my 2021–2022 criticism of his views on what is left of the Cambridge critique of neoclassical capital theory. I concentrate on the main disagreements. I find Schefold’s reply unconvincing on the usefulness of aggregate production functions, and also on the empirical evidence of a rarity of reswitching. I clarify better than in 2022 my reasons for rejecting his a priori approach to the probability of double switching. I insist that the impossibility to determine the endowment of capital destroys the neoclassical labour demand curve and the neoclassical investment function, leaving real wages and employment in need of a different theory, which renders a turn to a classical-Keynesian approach inevitable. |
| Keywords: | capital theory; Cambridge controversy; reswitching; aggregate production function |
| JEL: | B51 D24 D50 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:sraffa:022047 |
| By: | Kim Ristolainen (Turku School of Economics, University of Turku, Finland) |
| Abstract: | We develop a novel sentiment measure derived from survey data to empirically vali date the Minsky–Kindleberger view on financial crises. Using survey data from multiple countries, we decompose beliefs into components explained by public information that are orthogonal to optimal machine beliefs, constructing a framework that isolates sentiment and its dispersion among individuals. We show that deviations from machine-optimized benchmarks arise from systematic misaggregation of public information. The sentiment measure is validated through its predictive relationships with financial markets and belief dynamics consistent with heterogeneous-beliefs asset pricing theory. We extend this senti ment measure historically for a panel of 78 countries using machine learning models trained on BERT embeddings of historical news articles (1903–2020). The backcasted sentiment shows that shocks in median sentiment predict credit booms in the non-tradable corporate sector, which prior research has linked to financial crises, providing the first historically large-scale empirical validation of the Minsky cycle. We further show that sentiment, which is a misaggregation of public information, is influenced by memory-related dynamics, as the time elapsed since major crises and the share of young-to-old people in the population strongly predict surges in optimism even when recent economic developments are controlled for. |
| Keywords: | Survey data, Sentiment, Memory, Machine Learning, Text Data, Credit growth, Financial Crisis |
| JEL: | E44 E51 G01 D84 G41 E32 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tkk:dpaper:dp173 |
| By: | Georges Prat |
| Abstract: | An accounting measure of the demand for money is deduced from the Allais’ “Fundamental Equation of Monetary Dynamics”. Data from German hyperinflation in the early 1920s illustrate the method we propose. The spread between money supply and money demand is found to be rather moderate but is not white noise. Our approach can be applied to any country and over any period, provided that the aggregate expenditure can be approximated using available data. This new way can help improve the estimation of the money demand function while avoiding arbitrary assumptions about the dynamics of the spread between money supply and money demand. |
| Keywords: | demand for money, measure |
| JEL: | C51 E41 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2026-2 |
| By: | Alex Huang |
| Abstract: | The Journal Impact Factor (IF), as a core indicator of academic evaluation, has not been systematically studied in relation to its historical evolution and global macroeconomic environment. This paper employs a period-based regression analysis using long-term time series data from 1975-2026 to examine the statistical relationship between IF and Federal Reserve monetary policy (using real interest rate as a proxy variable). The study estimates three nested models using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS): (1) a baseline linear model, (2) a linear model controlling for time trends, and (3) a log-transformed model. Empirical results show that: (i) in the early period (1975-2000), there is no significant statistical relationship between IF and real interest rate ($p>0.1$); (ii) during the quantitative easing period (2001-2020), they exhibit a significant negative correlation ($\beta=-0.069$, $p |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2601.09618 |