|
on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | Joel Mokyr (Northwestern University) |
| Abstract: | Joel Mokyr delivered his Prize lecture on 8 December 2025 at the Aula Magna, Stockholm University. He was introduced by Kerstin Enflo, member of the Committee for the Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. |
| Keywords: | technological innovation; economic growth |
| JEL: | O |
| Date: | 2025–12–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nobelp:021903 |
| By: | Peter Howitt (Brown University) |
| Abstract: | Peter Howitt delivered his Prize lecture on 8 December 2025 at the Aula Magna, Stockholm University. He was introduced by Kerstin Enflo, member of the Committee for the Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. |
| Keywords: | technological innovation; economic growth |
| JEL: | O |
| Date: | 2025–12–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nobelp:021905 |
| By: | Carlos Andrés Brando (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | This paper identifies Bogotá as a demographic sink during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. The almost permanent contraction of its natural population resulted from low birth rates and heightened death rates. After the Thousand Days’ War (1899–1902), this condition was reversed. Rapid population growth ensued for over a century, as the city added, to the regular flows of immigrants, annual surpluses of its own natural population. Bogotá thus turned into a demographic source. This historical shift from sink to source was closely linked to changes in health. This research demonstrates that three traits of the early health transition (EHT) were present during this transformation: death-rate stabilization, improvements in life expectancy, and structural changes in the causes of death. It reconstructs historical statistics for crude death, birth, marriage, and natural-increase rates, and develops life tables, including survival rates based on abridged and period data from largely unpublished or unexplored archival sources. These empirical findings substantiate the contributions made to the literature on the city’s social and demographic past and broaden the perspectives for other scholars to apply the EHT and naturalpopulation frameworks to the historical evolution of cities in Latin America and beyond. |
| Keywords: | historical demography, health transition, life expectancy, mortality, fertility, Bogota |
| JEL: | I12 J11 J13 N36 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021850 |
| By: | Xue, Melanie |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the usefulness of crowd-sourced Chinese genealogical data for quantitative research in demography and economic history. I first examine whether genealogies—despite well-known selection biases—produce demographic patterns consistent with established historical knowledge of China. Comparisons with existing studies show that aggregate population-growth trends and sex ratios over time align reasonably well with established demographic and historical findings, suggesting that genealogies, though selective, capture coherent and interpretable patterns. Building on these plausibility checks, the paper argues that the main value of genealogical data lies in their scalability and temporal depth, particularly as crowd-sourced digitization vastly expands the number of available records. These features make genealogies well suited to analyses that leverage variation across regions and over time, an approach that is central in modern economic history. |
| Keywords: | crowd-sourced genealogies; China; migration; sex ratios |
| JEL: | J11 J13 N10 N35 |
| Date: | 2026–01–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130282 |
| By: | Philippe Aghion (Collège de France) |
| Abstract: | Philippe Aghion delivered his Prize lecture on 8 December 2025 at the Aula Magna, Stockholm University. He was introduced by Kerstin Enflo, member of the Committee for the Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. |
| Keywords: | technological innovation; economic growth |
| JEL: | O |
| Date: | 2025–12–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nobelp:021904 |
| By: | Marcel Boyer; Molivann Panot |
| Abstract: | This article examines the evolution of inequality since 1920, highlighting the need to rebalance research and public debate toward the forms of inequality that matter most for social welfare. While income and wealth disparities have received overwhelming attention in academia and public policy circles, consumption inequality, a more relevant indicator, has declined over the last two and a half decades. The main characteristics of developments in income and wealth inequality over time (since 1920) are presented: the share of the top 1% of earners followed a downward trend until the 1970-79 decade, and an upward trend thereafter, returning to levels comparable to those of the 1920s. The share of the top 10% of earners followed a similar movement. Despite the prominence of distributional issues in contemporary debates, comprehensive measures of consumption inequality remain underdeveloped. Yet the need for such metrics is urgent. Progress over the past 25 years—led in part by initiatives at Statistics Canada—offers a promising foundation for more accurate and policy-relevant assessments of economic well-being. One important factor has been the development of social transfers in kind ( STiK), which add significant resources and benefits to households in the lowest income quintile to a greater extent than to those in the highest quintile. |
| Date: | 2025–12–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2025s-34 |
| By: | Quinn, William; Turner, John D.; Walker, Clive B. |
| Abstract: | Speculation has long been thought to have significant economic effects, but it is difficult to measure, making it challenging to examine these effects empirically. In this paper we measure speculation in the UK since 1785 by using business and financial reporting in The Times newspaper. Our monthly speculation index reveals four distinct epochs of speculation in the UK. Epochs of high speculation coincide with higher stock market returns and higher economic growth, while low speculation periods coincide with high levels of government debt and financial repression. We find that low interest rates foment the development of higher speculation, and that eras of higher speculation are often followed by greater banking instability. |
| Keywords: | speculation, commodity markets, stock market, financial repression, monetary conditions, banking stability |
| JEL: | E44 E50 G10 N13 N14 N23 N24 Q02 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:333934 |
| By: | Magali Jaoul-Grammare; Valentin Reynaud; Arnaud Vasquez-Perez |
| Abstract: | Si les femmes ont joué un rôle essentiel lors du premier conflit mondial, l’hommage rendu aux victimes du conflit demeure très largement masculin. Les chiffres officiels recensent environ un millier de femmes à avoir obtenu la mention Mort pour la France…un nombre qui contraste fortement avec la diversité et l’ampleur de leur engagement. Ce travail s’inscrit dans une démarche de réhabilitation mémorielle. Il ne s’agit pas de minimiser le rôle des hommes dans la Grande Guerre, mais de corriger une omission historique. A partir d’une base pionnière recensant plus de 8 300 femmes décédées du fait du conflit et éligibles, de droit ou de fait, à la mention Mort pour la France, il s’agit aussi de comprendre pourquoi ces femmes sont restées invisibles. Les premiers résultats révèlent une double inégalité. D’abord, entre hommes et femmes : à faits similaires, les premiers étaient décorés, les secondes oubliées. Ensuite, au sein même des femmes : les plus modestes ont été bien plus ignorées que celles issues de milieux aisés. Une estimation économique confirme par ailleurs que ces « oublis » ne sauraient s’expliquer par une simple contrainte budgétaire. En redonnant visibilité à ces destins effacés, cette étude contribue à enrichir notre compréhension de la Grande Guerre et à rééquilibrer la mémoire nationale. |
| Keywords: | Femmes, Mort pour la France, Première Guerre Mondiale |
| JEL: | C80 J16 N44 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2025-45 |
| By: | Zimmermann, Florian (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Umkehrer, Matthias (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Ruf, Kevin (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Müller, Dana (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Seth, Stefan (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "This data report describes the Data from the Data Fund of Societal Work Power from the Federal Archive of Germany on employment in the GDR in 1989 linked with administrative data of the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) (GAV-ADIAB) 1975 - 2019." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Date: | 2025–12–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfda:202516(de) |
| By: | Makoto Fukumoto (Waseda University) |
| Abstract: | This study examines how economic elites respond to the erosion of democratic checks and balances, focusing on the Japanese legislature from 1936 to 1942. Using an original dataset of Diet membersʼbiographies and board memberships, it analyzes the Imperial Japanese Armyʼs consolidation of power and shifts in parliamentary voting patterns amid the suppression of dissent. Employing difference-in-differences and event-study designs, the study evaluates the effects of two key shocks: economic sanctions and wartime procurement. Legislators tied to sanction-hit sectors̶such as textiles and petrochemicals, the weakest performers in the stock market shifted toward authoritarian alignment. Biographical and legislative records suggest this shift was facilitated by regime-backed campaign finance. In contrast, legislators from procurement-dependent sectors, such as automobiles, maintained stable voting behavior. The findings complicate the conventional view that sanctions prompt elites to advocate international policy change. Instead, they show that sanctions can drive vulnerable actors to submit domestically, thereby accelerating authoritarian consolidation. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:2526 |
| By: | Carlos Alfredo Rodriguez |
| Abstract: | La Economía de Pizarrón. Mis comienzos en Argentina. La Universidad de Chicago. Columbia University of New York. Adiós Columbia University y USA. Argentina y el CEMA. Las manos en el barro. Menem 1996-98. Médico de Países. La Argentina Libertaria. Epílogo. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cem:doctra:883 |
| By: | Guillem Blasco-Piles (Universitat de Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides the first aggregate and disaggregated comprehensive Total Factor Productivity estimates for manufacturing in the Ottoman, Qing and Russian Empires before their collapse, incorporating both the traditional industry and capital estimates. Previous studies relied on modern-only establishments and labor productivity estimates, masking the role of capital and inner economic dynamics, which become essential during structural transformation processes. Using industrial censuses from 1908-1913 and regional reports combined with a novel reconstruction methodology for the traditional industry TFP, our results document extreme internal productivity dualism. Mechanized establishments achieved close to British efficiency levels while traditional non-mechanized plants operated at one-fifth to one-third of the industrial leader. At the aggregate level, lower-productivity traditional establishments seem to determine the aggregate productivity due to their vast weight in the manufacturing landscape. These findings suggest the persistence of the Great Divergence stemmed not from technological adoption incapacity but from the inability to diffuse new technologies beyond modern industrial enclaves—a pattern that illuminates persistent dualism in developing economies today. |
| Keywords: | Empires, Industrialization, Total Factor Productivity, Traditional Industry, Dualism |
| JEL: | L16 L60 N10 N60 O33 O47 O57 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0291 |
| By: | Souleymane Faye; Sarah Godar; Carolina Moura; Gabriel Zucman |
| Abstract: | This paper constructs homogeneous time series of global household offshore wealth covering the 2001–2023 period, during which major international efforts were implemented to curb offshore tax evasion. We find that: (i) global offshore wealth remained broadly stable as a fraction of global GDP since 2001, following a sharp increase in the 1980s and 1990s; (ii) the location of offshore wealth changed markedly, with a decline in the share held in Switzerland and a rise of Asian financial centers, the United Kingdom, and the United States; and (iii) a growing fraction comes from developing countries. |
| Keywords: | Tax havens, Tax evasion, Wealth, International investment positions |
| JEL: | H26 H87 E21 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2150 |
| By: | Centeno Clara (European Commission - JRC); Cosgrove Judith (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | One decade on from DigComp’s first publication, the purpose of this policy brief is to present the value that it provides to different stakeholders, and to illustrate its adoption and various uses across policy areas throughout the different skills development stages, from policy goal setting, skills development and assessment to recognition and monitoring across employment and formal, non-formal and informal education and training contexts. It also describes the next steps in the evolution of the framework. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc143430 |
| By: | Garcia-Couto, Santiago |
| Abstract: | This paper constructs harmonized, multi-dimensional measures of occupational task intensities for the United States from 1980-2014 by reconciling the Dictionary of Occupational Titles and O*NET. The resulting indices allow task intensities to vary within occupations over time and are linked to Census and ACS microdata. I document a pronounced rise in the importance of cognitive tasks -"cognitive dominance"- driven by both increasing task intensity and higher associated wage gradients. This mechanism helps explain three major labor-market trends: wage polarization, the rising college wage premium, and the narrowing gender wage gap, with most task changes occurring within occupations. |
| Date: | 2025–12–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:bcyk6_v1 |
| By: | Joseph NEGRINE; Christopher FINDLAY; Shiro ARMSTRONG |
| Abstract: | Japan, once the global leader in semiconductors, has re-emerged as a major player in industrial policy for chips amid supply chain shocks and rising geopolitical competition. This paper examines the historical trajectory of Japan’s semiconductor industry, its decline from dominance in the 1980s and its current revival strategies. We analyze the drivers of past success and the subsequent erosion of competitiveness due to trade disputes, structural rigidities and missed transitions to new business models. Against this backdrop, the paper describes Japan’s recent interventions, including subsidies, tax incentives and public–private partnerships, with a particular focus on the Japan Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing fabrication plants in Kumamoto and the Rapidus project in Hokkaido. These initiatives highlight contrasting models of international collaboration and domestic technological ambition, raising questions about risk, sustainability and integration with global value chains. We assess progress to date, challenges in financing, human capital, technological feasibility and the implications of Japan’s strategy for global semiconductor governance. The paper concludes by distilling lessons for effective industry policy, emphasizing openness, diversification, performance-linked support and the importance of international cooperation in avoiding subsidy races while building resilient ecosystems. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25116 |
| By: | Zhou, Haiwen |
| Abstract: | Evolution of institutions in selecting government officials in ancient China reflected efficiency considerations and increased power concentration in the hands of the ruler. Selecting government officials in ancient China became more rule-based over time, and standardization and centralization were some key features of this process. In this dynamic model, a higher volume of transactions shown as the number of candidates needed to be evaluated leads to institutionalization which has a higher fixed cost but a lower marginal cost in processing each transaction. In the steady state, a ruler with a more encompassing interest chooses a higher level of institutionalization. The impact of a change in the level of elite power on the level of institutionalization is sensitive to the relative power of state versus society. |
| Keywords: | Institutionalization, institutional evolution, rule-based governance, Chinese history, political economy |
| JEL: | N45 O53 P40 |
| Date: | 2025–10–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126588 |
| By: | Goldman, George E.; McWilliams, Bruce; Pradhan, Vijay |
| Keywords: | Industrial Organization, Production Economics |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:giamsc:263871 |
| By: | Eugenio Marí Thomsen |
| Abstract: | En este trabajo estudio el impacto que tienen las variaciones en el gasto militar sobre el PBI, el consumo privado, el consumo público civil y la inversión en Argentina durante el período1865-2023. Para hacerlo utilizo diferentes especificaciones de un modelo VAR estructural e identifico las funciones de impulso respuesta de cada una de las variables frente a shocks en el gasto militar. Encuentro que al analizar el período completo, el impacto del gasto militar sobre el PBI es positivo, aunque leve, algo que se replica para el consumo privado. En cambio, la reacción de la inversión y el consumo público civil es negativa, sugiriendo que existe un efecto expulsión del gasto militar sobre estas variables. Sin embargo, los resultados son sensibles al período que se analiza. En particular, el aumento del gasto militar tuvo un impacto negativo sobre el PBI, el consumo privado, el consumo público civil y la inversión después de la Segunda Guerra Mundial, lo que puede explicarse por las mayores restricciones al acceso al crédito que enfrentó el gobierno argentino durante ese período. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cem:doctra:895 |
| By: | Pang, Nicholas A. |
| Abstract: | Chapter XIII's wage-earner payment plans are now the default form of personal bankruptcy in the USA. During the Great Depression, it was created as a voluntary choice and enacted with unanimous legislative support. Absent conflict between creditors and labor and social reformers, legislators agreed that Chapter XIII was for the benefit of both honorable insolvents and their fair creditors. How did wage-earner payment plans emerge out of a consensual legislative process? Employing a computational abductive approach on a wide range of legislative, media and bankruptcy records, I show that Chapter XIII's creation was facilitated by a 'moral accounting' that, based on their race and gender identities, positively evaluated most White men bankruptcy petitioners as 'deserving', even as it recognized occupational variations in their economic 'productivity'. This study highlights how racial discourses of 'deservingness' are central to the construction of credit markets as part of America's submerged welfare state. |
| Keywords: | borrowing; Canada: 1913; credit & debt; debt; and wealth; historical sociology; law; moral norms; stratification; AAM requested |
| JEL: | N0 J1 |
| Date: | 2025–01–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129981 |
| By: | Fuad, Syed; Farmer, Michael C. |
| Keywords: | Political Economy, Public Economics, Institutional and Behavioral Economics |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343965 |
| By: | Julieta Pérez Amador; Adriana Robles |
| Abstract: | Cohabitation and marriage have coexisted in Latin America since the times of colonization. The level of cohabitation, however, has varied across and within countries. Traditionally, these unions were most common among population groups characterized by having lower socioeconomic status. However, beginning in the 1970s but to a much larger extent during the 1990s cohabitation arose in countries with and without traditional forms of cohabitation, and across different social strata. Comparative studies in the region have considered the effects of socioeconomic variables on the probability of cohabiting to be constant across cohorts, even though correlates of cohabitation have undergone important transformations during the period of cohabitation expansion. In this paper, using data from the Luxembourg Income Study Dataset, we challenge this assumption using harmonized Latin American data and regression methods to analyze within- and between-country cohort variation in the effects of income differentials on the probability of cohabiting, assessing to what extent this relationship varies across countries and to what extent it can be explained by other demographic variables. We aim to contribute to the understanding of the continuity and change in Latin American cohabitation and of the role it plays within the larger society and its stratification. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:905 |
| By: | Juan Carlos De Pablo |
| Abstract: | Estas líneas son un recuerdo y un homenaje a un gran amigo, Stanley Fischer. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cem:doctra:900 |
| By: | Eva Jacob; Kevin Wirtz |
| Abstract: | This article presents a quantitative history of basic income (BI) research within the Social Sciences from the 1960s to the present, utilizing bibliometric analysis on OpenAlex data. We identify five main research communities; Social Justice, Experiment, Tax and Labor Supply, Degrowth, and Others, and four major international collaboration clusters. Through this framework, we identify three major periods in BI research; an early experimental focus (1960–1980), a shift toward taxation, labor supply, and social justice (1980–2000), and a recent diversification into ecological concerns, thinking on social protection in South Africa and Germany, and care economics (2000–2020). A key insight from our study is the enduring influence of Negative Income Tax (NIT) and Minimum Income Guarantee (MIG) within BI research. Although the conceptual boundaries of BI have expanded to include broader social justice and ecological perspectives, the Experiment and Tax/Labor Supply communities continue to engage deeply with NIT and MIG. This persistence reflects long-standing research traditions, underscoring the distinct policy concerns shaping different strands of BI research. Ultimately, our study deepens our understanding of BI as an evolving research field, shaped by distinct intellectual traditions, regional specializations, and shifting policy priorities over time. |
| Keywords: | Basic income, Negative income tax, quantitative history of economic thought, social network analysis |
| JEL: | B2 B4 D63 P4 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2025-47 |
| By: | Rausser, Gordon; Villas-Boas, Sofia B. |
| Abstract: | Professor George Garrett Judge's body of work constitutes one of the most intellectually coherent and forward-looking research programs in modern quantitative economics, spanning three distinct but related domains: econometric estimation theory, spatial equilibrium operations research, and information-theoretic inference. What appears at first to be a diverse set of contributions is in fact organized around a single foundational question: How can economists recover reliable information about complex systems from noisy, incomplete, and imperfect data? Judge approached this challenge first by advancing new estimators and finitesample theory, then by reformulating spatial general equilibrium through mathematical programming methods, and ultimately by developing an entropy-based framework that integrates information theory, statistical mechanics, and computational methods. His vision redefines quantitative economics for an information-rich but uncertainty-dominated world, emphasizing epistemological humility, out-of-sample predictive performance, and the dynamic recovery of information over static parameter estimation. Across more than 150 articles, 16 books, and decades of mentorship, Judge reshaped agricultural economics, applied economics, and econometrics more broadly. |
| Keywords: | Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:assa26:379046 |
| By: | Claude Diebolt; Joel Huesler |
| Abstract: | In 1685, Louis XIV’s revocation of the Edict of Nantes expelled some 200, 000 Huguenots—one of the most skill-selective forced migrations in early modern Europe. While their contributions to England, Prussia and the Dutch Republic are well documented, the economic losses borne by the French regions they left behind have remained surprisingly unmeasured, despite the Huguenots’ disproportionate role in textiles, luxury crafts, finance and international trade. This paper provides the first economy-wide, micro-quantitative estimate of the long-run cost of this exodus for France. Using a newly assembled parish-level panel of Protestant baptism registers (1570–1700) linked to the industrial censuses of 1839 and 1860, we trace how a seventeenth-century demographic shock shaped regional development nearly two centuries later. We uncover three core results. (1) A one-standard-deviation decline in Huguenot baptisms (≈–20%) led to enduring losses:–5.8% industrial employment, –4.4% establishments and–5.1% wages in 1839, with output deficits still visible in 1860. (2) These effects persisted remarkably: by 1860, industrial production remained 2.8% lower—about 480, 000 francs per arrondissement. (3) The impact hinged on institutional and intellectual complementarities: regions distant from universities, printing presses, commercial hubs or Parliaments suffered the deepest scars. Together, these findings show how the removal of a highly skilled minority durably reshaped France’s economic geography, leaving an imprint that lasted for nearly two centuries. |
| Keywords: | Huguenots; Forced migration; Human capital; Economic persistence; Industrialization; Regional development; Historical shocks; Microhistorical data; Skill-selective migration. |
| JEL: | N33 N34 J61 O15 R11 F22 C23 N93 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2025-48 |
| By: | Jacobs-crisioni Chris; Schiavina Marcello; Alessandrini Alfredo; Dijkstra Lewis (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | The Joint Research Centre of the European Commission has produced long timeseries of global population by degree of urbanization, as well as for each city in the world. These long timeseries describe population changes by degree of urbanization, that is for cities, towns and semi-dense areas, and rural areas, as well as for individual cities from 1950 to 2100. They were produced as inputs for the 2025 UN World Urbanization Prospects report, complementing UN statistics on urban/rural population according to national definitions. The timeseries were obtained by combining three sources, namely rescaled GHS-POP grids for the period 1975-2020, supplemented with backcast population estimates for the period 1975-1950, and population grids projected by the CRISP model for the period 2020-2100. The report outlines the various sources and relevant inputs and shows a selection of results to characterize the data produced. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc144219 |
| By: | Hall, Viv; John, McDermott |
| Abstract: | There are no o¢ cial quarterly real GDP estimates for New Zealand, for the period prior to 1977. We develop a seasonally adjusted series for 1947q2 to 2006q2, by linking quarterly observations from two recent ofÖcial series to temporally disaggregated observations for an earlier time period. Annual real GDP series are disaggregated, using the information from two quarterly di§usion indexes, developed by Haywood and Campbell (1976). Three econometric models are used: the Chow and Lin (1971) model that disaggregates the level of GDP; and the Fern·ndez (1981) and Litterman (1983) models that disaggregate changes in GDP. Statistical properties of the series are evaluated, and movements in the new series are benchmarked against qualitative research Öndings from New Zealandís post-WWII economic history. Our preferred quarterly series is based on results generated from the Chow-Lin model. |
| Keywords: | Productivity Analysis |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:motuwp:292854 |
| By: | Anderson, Terry L.; Hill, P.J. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Land Economics/Use |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:msuarc:259393 |
| By: | Robert A. Buckle (Victoria University of Wellington); Michael Ryan (University of Waikato); Zhongchen Song (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas) |
| Abstract: | The frequency with which firms change prices crucially influences inflation dynamics. Using a unique firm-level dataset spanning more than six decades, this paper examines how firm price-setting behaviour has evolved across episodes of high inflation, including the recent COVID-19 inflation episode. Time-series analysis and probit modelling reveal that pricing behaviour has changed markedly since the high inflation episodes of the 1970s and 1980s. In the aggregate, the proportion of firms changing prices has become more highly correlated with inflation. At a firm level, the probability of price increases, conditional on inflation and cost increases, has risen. At the same time, the probability of price decreases when costs fall has fallen, making price adjustment increasingly asymmetric. This asymmetry is particularly pronounced among service-sector firms and at higher inflation levels. Reasons for these changes are evaluated including technological and societal changes, as well as the changing industrial structure of firms. Collectively, the findings imply that the Phillips Curve has become more nonlinear at higher levels of inflation and that the inflation accelerator operates more strongly than in the past. |
| Keywords: | Price change frequency; Inflation and price asymmetry; micro firm data; probit modelling |
| JEL: | E31 E52 D4 |
| Date: | 2025–12–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:25/06 |