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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | Rachel Y. L. Fung (Department of Economics, University of Missouri); Lauren Hoehn-Velasco (Department of Economics, Georgia State University); Michael F. Pesko (Department of Economics, University of Missouri) |
| Abstract: | Cigarette smoking, a leading cause of preventable death in the United States, rose to widespread popularity in the early 20th century. Between 1893 and 1921, sixteen states enacted laws prohibiting the sale of cigarettes, but all such bans were repealed by 1927. We examine the impact of these repeals using data from the U.S. Veterans Mortality (Dorn) Study, collected in the 1950s, which allows for a retrospective analysis of early cigarette use. Using a staggered adoption difference-in-differences design, we find that repealing cigarette bans increased smoking initiation before ages 20 and 25 by over 13%. We also show that the distribution of cigarettes to soldiers during World War I increased smoking uptake and later-life mortality among men from states with active bans at the time of enlistment. Taken together, our findings suggest that the abandonment of early efforts to restrict cigarettes had long-lasting consequences for health. |
| Keywords: | Cigarette regulations; smoking; long-term; mortality. |
| JEL: | I12 I18 N31 N32 N41 N42 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:umc:wpaper:2513 |
| By: | Christopher Mantzaris; Ajda Fo\v{s}ner |
| Abstract: | The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Co (HSBC) just survived a civil war intermitted by World War II. By the 1950s, it obviously needed to close all its branches in Mao's People's Republic of China, yet could somehow hold its Shanghai branch, which continued likely in the shadows, as non-state banking was illegalised and even simple land owners were executed merely for being labelled "capitalist". This Asia-focused bank --in spite of it all-- grew from these conditions into the behemoth it is today. Part of the growth was based on the economic boom in its core market Hong Kong, to which HSBC likely also contributed. To expand and diversify, HSBC continued the growth strategy that already started since its early days in the 1860s, this time just also inorganically: It acquired other banks, in most cases fully and in other regions. The most important acquisition was the takeover of the roughly equally-sized UK-based Midland Bank; for the following reasons: 1) It came just a year after the 1991 change of HSBC's headquarters and place of incorporation to London, so HSBC could smoothly integrate with Midland. This step also came with an additional listing of securities in London, providing HSBC funds. 2) These funds were used efficiently without much idling for the humongous acquisition. 3) The preceding decade of Margaret Thatcher's banking and finance deregulation in the UK created a beneficial environment for HSBC. 4) HSBC was proven right by the developments in Hong Kong, where the Communist Party of China illegally eroded democracy, the rule of law and civil liberties since 2020, despite promising to maintain these at least until 1 July 2047. A list of likely reasons for HSBC's prosperity and stability in face of the at times hostile environments is also provided, from which business lessons can be drawn. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.13878 |
| By: | Araujo, Daniel; Laudares, Humberto; Murillo, Dafne; Paredes, Hector; Valencia Caicedo, Felipe |
| Abstract: | Can a brief period of economic prosperity leave a legacy of long-term adversity for local populations? This study investigates the enduring impact of the Amazon rubber boom around 1900 on contemporary income, inequality, Indigenous groups presence, and forest conservation. Identification exploits variation in historical rubber suitability across municipalities and discontinuities around rubber concession boundaries. Municipalities with larger shares of rubber-suitable land experienced an initial economic surge, as evidenced by higher per capita GDP in the 1920 Census, but this prosperity was not sustained by 2010. Increased ethnic mixing, already visible in the 1872 Census, indicates that earlier economic expansion intensified contact with Indigenous groups. In the long run, rubber-suitable areas show lower population density, higher extinction of Indigenous groups, and greater income inequality. Consistent with the disproportionate violence and labor coercion inflicted on Indigenous groups, our Regression Discontinuity analysis further documents long-lasting environmental effects, with higher rates of deforestation, coca cultivation, and cattle raising in former rubber concession areas. Together, the results suggest that while the rubber boom generated short-term wealth, it left a legacy of persistent underdevelopment, social transformation, and environmental degradation. |
| Keywords: | Commodity Exploitation;Rubber;Amazon;indigenous peoples;Forced Labor;Persistence;Private Concessions;Economic history |
| JEL: | N36 O15 J15 O13 N56 Q33 D31 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14374 |
| By: | Andrei, Dalina; Andrei, Liviu Catalin |
| Abstract: | There was a time in which political authorities and decision makers were not collaborating with anybody else – here including scientific persons and bodies(authorities) – about documents that they were enacting. Such a typical aspect was easy noticed in the case of the international organization of “Latin Monetary Union” (1865-1927), of which’s written status at its time was including some exemplarily hilarious phrases. A new significant moment was the one of the international Conference hosted at Bretton-Woods in 1944 for a new international monetary system to replace the former gold standard – i.e. a tense dialogue between the hosting American administration and the famous JM Keynes, formally the UK’s representative, actually the lonely one in the audience with his own such IMS project and a legend in the area of economics. Briefly, there was a time of lack of or of not yet experience in relating the economic life and reality to the economic thinking. Economics, as a science, unlike physics or chemistry, to which the Nobel Prize is also addressed and which are natural and exact sciences, stays dominated by theories (instead of scientific postulates), so by the dialogue, despite not exactly like in democracy. In such an order, also economics stays different than the real economic life and even than the last’s specific policies applied. Just a natural mutual approaching each-other does complete this landscape since the times in which there was rather no contacts, but nothing could here be sudden or automatic. Today there is to be noticed and why not applauded the good habit in which Nobel Prizes' laureates do address to the communities about current issues in the specialty. Previously, in 1993 Paul Krugman, another Nobel Prize winner in his turn, had issued his “Lessons of Massachusetts for the EMU” and also other examples could be given. |
| Keywords: | European Union, Common currency, Monetary policy, Fiscal policy, Economic integration |
| JEL: | F15 F42 F43 F45 |
| Date: | 2025–08–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126686 |
| By: | Carlos Álvarez-Nogal (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); Leandro Prados de la Escosura (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | In early modern Spain, state capacity has been regarded as weak in the historical literature. In this paper, we assess the Spanish Monarchy’s ability to implement its policies through an output measure rather than an input—specifically, the distribution of the Bull of the Crusade. Furthermore, we explore how shifts in state capacity influenced subjective well-being. In a religious society like early modern Spain, spiritual satisfaction functions as a measure of subjective well-being. It was achieved by reducing the perceived time spent in Purgatory after death to atone for sins committed during life, which could be done by purchasing indulgences. Consuming the Bull of the Crusade, an affordable form of almsgiving, granted a plenary indulgence and, therefore, eliminated the need for penance in the afterlife for all sins committed prior to its purchase. Obtaining the bull reduced death anxiety and increased life satisfaction. Our measure of subjective well-being—the logarithmic ratio of bulls sold to the population, both normalised—indicates whether spiritual satisfaction was attained. Subjective well-being declined in the late 1570s and 1580s during years of severe financial crisis, in the 1640s during the Catalan Revolt, and collapsed during Spain’s War of Succession (1701-14) and its aftermath. Reductions in state capacity coincided with decreases in spiritual satisfaction, while demand for bulls remained relatively stable over time. Declines in state capacity appear to be the primary factor behind these decreases in spiritual satisfaction and, consequently, lower subjective well-being. |
| Keywords: | State Capacity, Subjective Well-Being, Spiritual Satisfaction, Early Modern Spain, Bulls |
| JEL: | E70 H27 I31 N33 Z12 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0287 |
| By: | Christopher Mantzaris; Ajda Fo\v{s}ner |
| Abstract: | Europe's largest bank by assets as of 2025 started out in the 1860s in one of Europe's colonies: The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Co (HSBC). Multiple wars forced Qing China and later the young Republic of China into a series of unequal treaties, one of which was the forced legalisation of the opium trade from parts of the British Empire into China, another was opening several cities, including Shanghai, for trade and granting extensive civil, property and business rights to non-residents and yet another was the annexation of Hong Kong by the United Kingdom. These are the conditions that created HSBC and in which it thrived, including from opium-related profits. During periods of relative calm, the bank grew geographically and made profits -- whether in moral or unethical, whether in legal or unlawful ways -- which helped HSBC weather the storms of civil and world wars. Other aspects contributed to HSBC's survival and success, such as its global nature, which allowed it to diversify and shift away from regions when danger emerges there and find shelter in safer havens. Yet the resilient survival abilities and the financial success of HSBC until 1950 should not distract from the fact that in addition to its tainted cradle and early profits from facilitating the poisoning of a whole society, its human resource system was also discrimination based, attempting to divide the one human race into different groups -- in spite of such practises being opposed to medical and biological facts. What is particularly interesting to see is that not only has HSBC yet to apologise for the early drug-related blood money it made: it even fails to mention its colonial, drug profits tainted past on any of its many history-themed pages sighted. Later sections contain possible reasons for HSBC's resilience and success, particularly interesting for entrepreneurs. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.10715 |
| By: | Lane, Nathaniel (University of Oxford); Barteska, Philipp; Kim, Oliver; Lee, Seung Joo |
| Abstract: | How did geopolitics shape East Asia’s economic development? We show that U.S. war procurement during the Vietnam War—a fiscal shock which peaked at 2.9 percent of South Korea's GDP, rivaling the Marshall Plan—catalyzed Korea’s export-led industrialization. We construct a new firm-level dataset linking Korean export records with U.S. procurement contracts (1966–1974) to estimate the causal impact of winning a contract on export performance. Winning an initial contract increases a firm’s likelihood of exporting by 46 percentage points and triples its export value. These effects extend beyond sales to the United States: treated firms also expanded into third-country markets. We validate our research design using unique, contemporaneous firm-level export targets, showing that contracts were not anticipated and unrelated to export shocks. The policy had lasting effects. We find that firms treated in the 1960s responded more strongly to South Korea’s heavy and chemical industry drive of the 1970s, indicating that U.S. procurement and domestic industrial policy were complementary. Our findings reveal a neglected channel through which Cold War geopolitics helped shape the East Asian economic miracle. |
| Date: | 2025–11–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:vxej4_v1 |
| By: | López-Espejo, Iván |
| Abstract: | This article examines the law of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall in the Spanish economy between 1960 and 2024, considering the organic composition of capital and the rate of surplus value as central variables. Its aim is to determine whether this law, formulated by Marx in Capital (Vol. III), continues to operate in the contemporary context. The methodology consists of transforming orthodox macroeconomic categories derived from the Spanish National Accounts (CNE), available in BDMACRO, into Marxist variables: constant capital (c), variable capital (v), and surplus value (pv). Based on these, historical series of the organic composition of capital (q), the rate of surplus value (pv'), and the rate of profit (g') are constructed, adjusted to constant prices to ensure temporal coherence and comparability. The results show a sustained increase in q and a slight decrease in pv', generating a tendential decline in g' with cyclical fluctuations associated with specific crises. The conclusions empirically confirm the validity of the law in Spain, highlighting the historical limits of capitalism and providing quantitative evidence on the structural dynamics of profitability. |
| Keywords: | Tendency of the rate of profit; organic composition of capital; rate of surplus value; Spanish economy; economic cycles |
| JEL: | B51 C93 O11 O47 P16 |
| Date: | 2025–09–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127016 |
| By: | Campbell, Gareth; Gallagher, Áine; Grossman, Richard S. |
| Abstract: | Substantial amounts of British capital flowed to Latin America during the first era of globalisation. Companies financed by this capital were typically headquartered in the UK, but operated thousands of miles away. This paper asks how this geographic separation between governance and business activities affected the valuation of these firms. We find that the location of the headquarters played a more important role than the location of operations. Stock prices tended to fluctuate in line with other equities based in the UK, suggesting that they were still regarded as being, at least partially, British companies. |
| Keywords: | Latin America, equity markets, portfolio investing, emerging markets |
| JEL: | F21 F54 F65 G11 G12 G15 G51 N16 N26 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:331898 |
| By: | Fida Muhammad Khan (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics) |
| Abstract: | The study found that while judicial reforms is a vast area, the bulk of the literature is concerned with the appointment of the judges and the tug of war between the executive and the legislature. The literature on legal reforms with respect to police and law enforcement focus on colonial heritage and how current structure of policing organisations is defined by colonial laws. Police corruption and public perception have also been the focus of researchers in legal reforms. It was also observed that while some papers adopted objective stances, there has been literature that supports one political era over another. Most of the studies adopted the discussion-based approach based on historical analyses. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:wpaper:2025:6 |
| By: | Paul C. Behler (University of Bonn); Laurenz Guenther (Bocconi University, Toulouse School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | While the recent rise of populism has led many scholars to study populism in the modern era, its long-run evolution remains underexplored. This paper analyzes German parliamentary speeches to study populism over the long run, covering the Weimar Republic (1918–1933) and the united Federal Republic (1991–today). We employ a tailored and validated machine learning model to measure populism and dissect it into anti-elitism and people-centrism. We find that in both republics, populism is similarly common, similarly distributed across the ideological spectrum, and increases over time. Moreover, in both states, left-wing parties were initially the most populist group but were eventually overtaken by right-wing parties. However, we find a difference in the form of populism: in the Weimar Republic, the increase in populism is driven by a surge in the anti-elitism of right-wing parties, while in the Federal Republic, it is due to a general rise in people-centrism. |
| Keywords: | Populism, Nazi, Weimar, Radical, Democracy, Right-wing, Far-right, Machine learning, BERT, Text analysis, Rhetoric |
| JEL: | P16 N40 C89 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:381 |
| By: | Seibert, Holger (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "Even 35 years after German reunification, employees in East Germany still earn significantly lower wages than in the western part. This report analyses the development of wage differences between East and West Germany from 2012 to 2024." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation |
| Date: | 2025–11–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabkbe:202525 |
| By: | Arianna Salazar-Miranda |
| Abstract: | The growth of suburbs in the US has led to significant sustainability challenges; yet, it remains unclear whether these challenges stem from the remoteness of suburbs from city centers or the specific designs used to develop them. This paper examines how Garden City Design (GCD) -- one of the most influential suburban design paradigms since the early 20th century -- impacts the social and environmental outcomes of neighborhoods. I first introduce a composite measure of GCD, derived from street layouts and block configurations, to quantify its nationwide adoption. I use this measure combined with mobility and emissions data to estimate the impact of GCD on neighborhood outcomes using complementary identification strategies, including ordinary least squares (OLS), matching estimators, and an instrumental variables (IV) approach that exploits historical variation in GCD adoption. Results show that GCD leads to worse sustainability outcomes, including increased greenhouse gas emissions, greater social isolation, and higher sedentary behavior. The prevalence of GCD accounts for 27-38% of the adverse effects associated with suburbanization, underscoring the crucial role that neighborhood design plays in shaping urban sustainability. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.13544 |
| By: | Abramitzky, Ran (Stanford University and NBER.); Ben-Porath, Netanel (Northwestern University); Lavy, Victor (Warwick University, The Hebrew University, and NBER); Palg, Michal (The University of Haifa) |
| Abstract: | While many socialist countries suffered from harsh economic crises, studying their impacts on economic and political attitudes is challenging because of the scarcity of reliable data in nondemocratic contexts. We study a democratic socialist setting where we have ample information on such attitudes: the Israeli kibbutzim. Exploiting an economic crisis that hit some kibbutzim more than others, we find that the crisis led to reduced support for leftist political parties. This effect persisted for over 20 years after the crisis had ended. We document that the electoral movement was rooted in a rightward shift in economic attitudes, suggesting that economic crises may undermine socialist regimes by silently changing attitudes toward them. In our unique setting, we can also study recovery mechanisms from the crisis. First, we find that while a sharp debt relief arrangement restored trust in the leadership, it did not reverse the impact of the crisis on economic attitudes. Second, as part of their efforts to recover from the crisis, kibbutzim liberalized their labor markets. Analyzing the staggered shift away from equal sharing to market-based wages, we find that this labor market liberalization led kibbutz members to move further rightward in their political voting and economic attitudes. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1589 |
| By: | Daniel Moulton; Larry Santucci; Robyn Smith |
| Abstract: | This paper examines methodological approaches for extracting structured data from large-scale historical document archives, comparing “hyperspecialized” versus “adaptive modular” strategies. Using 56 years of Philadelphia property deeds as a case study, we show the benefits of the adaptive modular approach leveraging optical character recognition (OCR), full-text search, and frontier large language models (LLMs) to identify deeds containing specific restrictive use language— achieving 98% precision and 90–98% recall. Our adaptive modular methodology enables analysis of historically important economic phenomena including re strictive property covenants, their precise geographic locations, and the localized neighborhood effects of these restrictions. This approach should be easily adapt able to other research involving deeds and similar document. |
| Keywords: | large language models (LLMs); artificial intelligence (AI); machine learning (ML); restrictive covenants; deeds; property; real estate; housing; John Coltrane; digitization |
| JEL: | C81 N32 R31 R38 |
| Date: | 2025–10–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpdp:102114 |
| By: | Hanappi, Hardy |
| Abstract: | The goal of this paper is to use the experiences of three surprising election results in 1930, 1916 and 2024 to explain which lessons can be drawn for further development of humanity’s evolution. It turns out that deep changes in the organisation of self-governance will be needed to master the evolving crises of global capitalism, which, over the last years, has been morphing into authoritarian, global, absolute capitalism. |
| Keywords: | Democracy, Elections, Global Political Economy, Fascism |
| JEL: | B00 O1 O10 P16 P17 |
| Date: | 2025–11–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126743 |
| By: | Margaret Leighton (University of St Andrews); Jamin D Speer (University of Memphis) |
| Abstract: | The past half century has seen dramatic changes in college enrolment. In this paper, we document how the skills and aspirations of college students have also changed. Using over 40 years of data on incoming college freshmen, we establish three key facts. First, students’ goals have shifted away from the philosophical (e.g., finding meaning in life) towards the tangible (e.g., financial and family outcomes). Second, the share of students who are both of high ability and have high aspirations for tangible goals has risen steadily, with a particular increase in the 1970s and 1980s. Third, this rise is mirrored by a fall in students who, while quite strong academically, place low weight on life goals such as financial success, raising a family, or helping others. |
| Keywords: | college; college students; aspirations; skills; goals |
| JEL: | I21 I23 J11 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–11–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:san:econdp:2502 |
| By: | Miguel D. Ramirez (Department of Economics, Trinity College) |
| Keywords: | comparative advantage, double factorial terms of trade, finance capital, organic composition of capital, prices of production, rate of profit, real wages, surplus value, labor values, monopoly, transfer of value, and unit labor costs. |
| JEL: | B14 B17 B51 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tri:wpaper:2504 |
| By: | Kosuke Aoki (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo, JAPAN); Alan Auerbach (Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, U.S.A. and National Bureau of Economic Research, U.S.A.); Charles Yuji Horioka (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, Asian Growth Research Institute, JAPAN, and National Bureau of Economic Research, U.S.A.); Anil Kashyap (University of Chicago Booth School of Business, U.S.A. and National Bureau of Economic Research, U.S.A.); Tsutomu Watanabe (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo, JAPAN); David Weinstein (Department of Economics, Columbia University, U.S.A. and National Bureau of Economic Research, U.S.A.) |
| Abstract: | Takatoshi Ito, who passed away in September 2025, was a leading scholar of macroeconomics and international finance. This column, written by a group of friends and colleagues, outlines his many contributions in a lifetime of research, teaching and policy-making in Japan, the United States and around the world. His work is particularly notable for challenging the widespread perception that standard economic analysis is somehow ill-suited for understanding the Japanese economy. Indeed, using the discipline's rigorous tools, he illuminated challenges that Japan faced earlier and more acutely than other countries – including population decline and ageing, ballooning government debt, the zero lower bound and unconventional monetary policies, real estate bubbles and their collapse, and the banking sector's problem of non-performing loans. |
| Keywords: | Asian economies; Exchange rate fluctuations; Foreign exchange intervention; Inflation targeting; International finance; Invoicing currency; Japanese economy; Macroeconomics; Monetary policy; Takatoshi Ito; Zero interest rate policy |
| JEL: | E52 E58 F14 F31 G15 O53 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2025-29 |
| By: | Nancy Birdsall (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | The 1993 publication of a World Bank book on the East Asian Miracle explained the extraordinarily rapid growth of Japan and seven other economies of East Asia (at 5 percent a year) between 1965 and 1990 as grounded in those economies’ adherence to market “fundamentals”—sound macro management, “shared” growth policies, investment in human capital—combined with an “export push” which fostered the technological learning that drove those countries’ high total factor productivity growth. The World Bank authors dismissed “industrial policy” as central to their growth and cautioned against other developing countries adopting industrial policy in the absence of strong government institutions. Was that caution too much a product of its post-Soviet, neoliberal era? Considering what we know now about the state of governance in developing countries, might industrial policy help boost growth in at least some developing countries? |
| Date: | 2025–11–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:736 |
| By: | Karim Khan (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics) |
| Abstract: | Pakistan has been pursuing an active albeit expansionary fiscal policy since 1970s. In the mid-1970s to early-1980s, such policy choice was manifested in externally financed development spending, primarily in the form of investment in public enterprises. Despite excessive deficit financing, Pakistan`s economic performance never took off; rather, it remained on a path of truncated growth which, in turn, created structural hurdles like low productivity, poor investment climate, and higher unemployment. Likewise, deficit financing has been threatening the sustainability of fiscal framework as excessive public spending is not accompanied by corresponding enhances in domestic revenues. Consequently, these policies have caused persistence in fiscal deficit and the accumulation of public debt over time. These woes are added further by persistent deficit in external accounts and, the resultant depreciation of Pakistani Rupee, which has havocked the cost of debt-servicing over the same period. Given the history of incessant macroeconomic imbalances; currently, Pakistani economy has been trapped into a vicious circle of stagflation and low growth prospects amid unfunded losses of the State Owned Enterprises (SOEs), government guarantees to the Independent Power Producers (IPPs), unsustainable debt and huge cost of debt-servicing, sky-rocketing prices of the essential items, frequent though unsuccessful bail-outs of the IMF, low credit worthiness and negligible level of investment among others. This review is focusing on a detailed analysis of Pakistan`s fiscal and debt policies, with a view to provide a framework for resolving the structural economic woes that the country has currently been faced with. |
| Keywords: | Debt, Fiscal Deficit, Fiscal Policy, Pakistan, Structural Economic Woes, Truncated Growth |
| JEL: | E62 H11 H50 H62 H63 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:wpaper:2025:2 |
| By: | Oliver Brufal (University of Groningen) |
| Keywords: | Britain, public sector organisations, institutional change, meritocracy |
| JEL: | N43 D73 M51 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0288 |
| By: | Della Corte, Pasquale; Gao, Can; Preve, Daniel P. A.; Valente, Giorgio |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the long-horizon predictive variance of an international bond strategy where a U.S. investor holds unhedged positions in constant-maturity long-term foreign bonds funded at domestic short-term interest rates. Using over two centuries of data from major economies, the study finds that predictive variance grows with the investment horizon, driven primarily by uncertainties in interest rate differentials and exchange rate returns, which outweigh mean reversion effects. The analysis, incorporating both observable and unobservable predictors, highlights that unobservable predictors linked to shifts in monetary and exchange rate regimes are the dominant source of long-term risk, offering fresh insights into international bond investment strategies. |
| Keywords: | Currency risk, Long-term bonds, Predictability, Long-term investments |
| JEL: | F31 G12 G15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:331899 |
| By: | Chu, Angus C. |
| Abstract: | Early humans undertook multiple waves of migration out of Africa and back to the continent. We explore prehistoric human migration in a two-region Malthusian growth model. Whether migration occurs depends on the migration cost, relative population size, relative land supply and relative hunting-gathering productivity between regions. Suppose one region is initially uninhabited. Then, a lower migration cost leads to migration and a larger human population. Back migration occurs when hunting-gathering productivity and supply of natural resources in the foreign region decrease relative to the home region, which provides an economic rationale for the multi-directional "shuttle dispersal model" of prehistoric human migration out of and back to Africa. |
| Keywords: | Prehistoric human migration; Malthusian growth theory |
| JEL: | O15 O44 Q56 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126606 |
| By: | AYDIN, Samet (Maltepe University) |
| Abstract: | Customer Relationship Management (CRM), which gained rapid traction in the business world during the mid-1990s, soon lost its appeal due to numerous instances of failure, where substantial investments in system implementation failed to deliver the anticipated outcomes. The main reason for these failures was that businesses overly concentrated on the technological tools available at the time and their eagerness to use them while overlooking the core principles of the CRM approach, especially the strategic and human components. CRM is not just a technology; what truly matters are the business processes and human resources that implement them. Technology can only support these two essential components. Today, driven by advancements in information technology, shifts in consumer behavior and expectations due to e-commerce, mobile applications, and social media necessitate the redefinition and restructuring of CRM. In the Information Age, CRM has become indispensable for crafting, implementing, and enhancing value in the relationships between businesses and their customers. This paper discusses the reasons for CRM’s existence and its fundamental philosophy. In addition, it focuses on definitions related to CRM, its historical development, and the various ways in which it is important for businesses and their customers. |
| Date: | 2025–10–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:j5qaz_v1 |