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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | Francisco Pino; Laura Salisbury |
| Abstract: | Campaign tours have become an essential component of U.S. presidential elections. How and when did they begin? We explore the early history of in-person political campaigning in the United States by reconstructing the first presidential campaign tours from historical newspaper clippings. We analyze the decision to campaign, the determinants of where candidates campaigned, and the outcomes of early in-person campaigns. We document an evolving norm of campaigning. This norm evolved well after the expansion of the railroad network. While a national railroad network was a necessary precondition for campaigning to evolve, our findings point to other factors – such as growing urbanization and the decline of federal patronage machines – playing a more important role in the growth of campaigning. We find evidence that being visited on a campaign tour increased voter turnout in a county. However, we do not find a clear effect of campaign visits of a given candidate on his electoral performance. |
| JEL: | N0 P0 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34447 |
| By: | Moors, Annelies |
| Abstract: | In this contribution, I focus on the shifting assemblages of evidencing that become visible during the public court cases and in the verdicts of Dutch women returnees from Syria. Evidencing emerged as a particularly salient problem, since in the large majority of cases there was not even a suspicion that these women had participated in violent acts. What soon appeared was what I call, following one of the lawyers, the doctrine of the common household. Engaging in housework and childcare for men who were IS-fighters became a ground for conviction for participation in a terrorist organization and/or for involvement in preparatory acts enabling terrorism. These men were, as it were, tried in absentia. As the doctrine of the common household was a new legal invention, judges were often inconsistent in how they considered such “evidence.” What, then, was running a common household evidence of, and what counted as evidence of running a common household? How did this focus of attention emerge and develop, and what was left outside the frame? How did the courts deal with IS doctrine on housework and childcare, and with women’s own accounts as evidence? How did these positions intersect with particular turns in public opinion? These various issues also raise questions of temporality, not only in terms of how sequencing is taken to imply causality, but also in terms of how a particular historical moment matters, with judges developing, and in appeal cases often rejecting, such new interpretations. |
| Date: | 2025–10–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:7r25v_v1 |
| By: | Luz Marina Arias; Luis De la Calle |
| Abstract: | How do new leaders rebuild the state after a civil war in which the central government disintegrates and the army is defeated? The end of the Porfirian regime and dissolution of the army in 1914 during the Mexican revolution gave way to armed conflict between three factions: Constitucionalista, Villista, and Zapatista. We argue that the territorial strategies implemented during the armed conflict between factions—the civil war dynamics—lay the groundwork for later state-building. |
| Keywords: | Statebuilding, Civil conflict, State capacity, Mexico |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-78 |
| By: | Stefano Di Bucchianico; Alessandro Le Donne |
| Abstract: | This paper offers new textual evidence supporting the Sraffian 'corn-ratio' interpretation of David Ricardo's early theory of profits. We analyze the first edition (1825) of John Ramsay McCulloch's Principles of Political Economy, arguing that it provides a clear articulation of the profit rate’s physical determination. McCulloch, Ricardo’s pupil, defines profit as the excess of commodities produced over those expended in production and calculates the profit rate directly in physical quantities of corn. This finding parallels the evidence found in Torrens, ultimately reinforcing the argument that the ‘corn model’ was deeply rooted in the early classical tradition. At last, our comparative analysis contrasts this initial, clear physical framework with McCulloch’s later shift towards value-centric reasoning. |
| Keywords: | John R. McCulloch, corn model, Sraffian interpretation, David Ricardo, rate of profit Jel Classification: A31, B12, B30 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usi:wpaper:933 |
| By: | Juliana Jaramillo-Echeverri; Andrea Otero-Cortés; Ana María Tribín-Uribe; Marta Juanita Villaveces-Niño |
| Abstract: | This study examines the historical transformations in time use and gender roles in Colombia throughout the 20th century and their persistence in contemporary patterns. Drawing on census microdata and the 2016–2017 and 2020–2021 National Time Use Surveys, we document the evolution of paid and unpaid work across five generations of women and men. The findings confirm a swift increase in female labour force participation, particularly among highly educated women. However, the redistribution of household care lags, with perceptions of gender roles and social norms persisting. While women have succeeded in gaining a space in the public sphere, the division of unpaid work remains unequal, especially when kids are present in the household. Our analysis highlights the need for broader societal and policy interventions to address these structural disparities. **** RESUMEN: Este estudio examina las transformaciones históricas en el uso del tiempo y los roles de género en Colombia a lo largo del siglo XX, así como su persistencia hoy en día. A partir de microdatos censales y de las Encuestas Nacionales de Uso del Tiempo 2016–2017 y 2020–2021, documentamos la evolución del trabajo remunerado y no remunerado en cinco generaciones de mujeres y hombres. Los resultados muestran un rápido incremento en la participación femenina en el mercado laboral, particularmente entre las mujeres con mayores niveles educativos. Sin embargo, la redistribución de las responsabilidades de cuidado doméstico avanza a un ritmo más lento, con percepciones tradicionales sobre los roles de género y normas sociales que persisten en el tiempo, sobre todo cuando hay niños en el hogar. Nuestro análisis sugiere que aún se requieren intervenciones sociales y de política pública para enfrentar estas desigualdades estructurales. |
| Keywords: | Gender, social norms, paid work, non-paid work, time-use, Género, normas sociales, trabajo remunerado, trabajo no remunerado, uso del tiempo |
| JEL: | J16 J22 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:cheedt:66 |
| By: | Brioschi, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how kinship and professional networks shaped labour market outcomes in early modern Genoa. Using a newly constructed dataset of over 8, 000 apprenticeship contracts (1450-1530), I examine the extent to which kinship ties with masters or guild members influenced both entry into apprenticeship and the probability of attaining mastership. Using a probabilistic record linkage strategy to reconstruct career trajectories, I show that apprentices with kinship ties to insiders were significantly more likely to become masters, received shorter contracts and enjoyed better contractual and training conditions. These advantages persisted even during periods of economic contraction, suggesting that apprenticeship functioned not only as an open mechanism for human capital formation but also as a selective filter reinforcing occupational stratification. The findings contribute to debates on the role of guilds in pre-industrial labour markets, offering empirical support for the view that social networks limited access to skilled work and upward mobility. |
| Keywords: | Apprenticeship, Labour Markets, Guilds, Mastership, Social Networks, Early Modern Italy |
| JEL: | J62 J24 N33 N93 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:330674 |
| By: | Carol H. Shiue; Wolfgang Keller |
| Abstract: | We study how elite power persisted through the Ming–Qing transition in Central China. Using genealogical microdata on married couples and their descendants, linked to measures of local elite influence, we estimate the effects of the Ming collapse (1368–1644) on families (people) and on regions (places). A family line-level treatment and control approach shows that elites experienced an immediate loss of influence, but their descendants recovered and consolidated elite status under the Qing (1644–1911). In contrast, a region-level design indicates that areas more heavily exposed to Ming-collapse destruction suffered persistent adverse outcomes. Evidence on career choice is consistent with a trauma-induced shift toward civil service examination careers, with stronger intergenerational transmission of exam-oriented norms in families more exposed to destruction. The results document adaptive persistence of elite families despite regime change, alongside lasting regional scarring, and highlight the role of cultural transmission in the persistence of elite status. |
| JEL: | N95 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34451 |
| By: | Morgan, Mary S. |
| Abstract: | When newly independent states in Africa set out to make their own economies in the 1960s, they did so under the label of “planning, ” a generic term denoting economic policy-making to create the economic future. This planning was guided by international experts, sent “on missions” to help, or perhaps oversee, local economists in what was seen then as an expert, technocratic process. Nigeria offers an important example of this technocracy at work, under the guidance of its “missionary”: Wolfgang Stolper. His diary, and his writings of the day, reveal how local information and local values travelled around social, political and economic circles, to be then spliced together according to certain economic principles in making a “five-year plan” for the future of Nigeria. |
| Keywords: | economic planning; development "missions"; new states; mutable mobiles; national accoutnts |
| JEL: | N0 R14 J01 J1 |
| Date: | 2025–11–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129879 |
| By: | Theodoridis, Dimitrios (Stockholm University, Department of Economic History and International Relations); Rönnbäck, Klas (Unit for Economic History, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University) |
| Abstract: | The British colonial Blue Books are a commonly used statistical source for historical research. There is, however, surprisingly little research on the reliability of the statistical information reported in them. We here focus upon the reliability of commodity price data reported in this source. There is some recent research (see Westland, 2022) on the reliability of market retail prices found in the African colonial Blue Books, showing that reliability may potentially be an issue with these sources. The current paper extends the research frontier by investigating the reliability of commodity prices found in the Blue Books from other British colonies, specifically the ones in the British West Indies. We compare Blue Book prices with commodity price information collected from various Caribbean newspapers. In contrast to Westland’s findings on African Blue Books, we find the British West Indies Blue Books to report reliable representations of commodity market prices across commodities and colonies in the region in general. We therefore deem the price information reported in these Blue Books as an invaluable resource for many future research endeavors. |
| Keywords: | Blue Books; British West Indies; data reliability; commodity prices |
| JEL: | B10 B26 |
| Date: | 2025–11–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunhis:0042 |
| By: | Felipe Francisco De Souza |
| Abstract: | This study integrates historical institutionalism with geostatistical methods to examine the evolution and impact of land readjustment (Baulandumlegung) projects in Frankfurt am Main over the past 120 years. Drawing on critical junctures and path dependence as theoretical pillars, we trace how pivotal legal, political, and economic events—such as new planning laws, macroeconomic crises, and wartime disruptions—shaped planning policies and practices. We hypothesize that once certain institutional pathways were chosen, subsequent changes became increasingly constrained, leading to distinct project designs, financing schemes, and dispute-resolution practices. Methodologically, we present a novel Baulandumlegung Prognosis Algorithm that combines machine learning, spatiotemporal statistics, and a historical institutionalist ground to forecast land readjustment outcomes. The dataset, which spans from 1902 to 2022, integrates unstructured data from archival records, property transaction listings, and Sütterlin-scripted documents across distinct historical periods, including the German Empire, Weimar Republic, and post-World War II eras. Applied to distinct periods of voluntary (139) and enforcement-based (183) project implementations, the algorithm incorporates seven key components into a single predictive pipeline—geographically weighted regression, Mahalanobis distance matching, difference-in-differences estimation, anisotropic variogram analysis, odds ratio clustering, a historical weight function, and a cumulative probability predictor. These components collectively capture spatial dependence, isolate treatment effects, and incorporate path-dependent institutional changes. At the core of this framework lies a machine-learning classification module. By applying cross-entropy loss to guide training, we iteratively optimize hyperparameters (e.g., learning rate, maximum tree depth, regularization terms) to minimize predictive bias and enhance model generalizability in real estate markets. We pair 'treated' land readjustment sites with comparable 'control' areas to quantify the causal impact of Baulandumlegung on property prices and urban form over time. Additionally, anisotropic (semi)variogram analyses uncover hidden spatial heterogeneities by illustrating how direction-specific correlation structures influence project outcomes. A historical weight function further operationalizes how critical junctures shaped path-dependent trajectories across German political regimes. Our results demonstrate significant spatial heterogeneity in the effects of land readjustment across Frankfurt am Main, with varying impacts on property values and urban development patterns. Empirical validation using spatial cross-validation confirms that our machine learning approach successfully predicts project locations at specific times while accounting for complex spatiotemporal relationships outperforming traditional parametric and non-spatial hedonic models. Preliminary findings suggest that critical junctures—such as the post-war reconstruction and amendments to the German Building Code—acted as catalysts for reaffirming or altering Frankfurt’s planning trajectory. This methodological innovation provides urban planners and policymakers with a robust tool for analyzing not only prospective land readjustment areas but also regions affected by other planning instruments, effectively combining a historical-institutionalist framework with modern machine-learning techniques. |
| Keywords: | Geostatistics; historical institutionalism; Land Readjustment; Machine learning Algorithms |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_185 |
| By: | Sarah Quincy; Chenzi Xu |
| Abstract: | We study the long-run effects of the first wave of U.S. banking market integration on capital mobility and manufacturing productivity. Using newly digitized bank and branch balance sheet data matched to state and county panels, we provide direct evidence that branching produced lasting productivity gains without aggregate capital deepening by leveraging internal capital markets to improve the geographic allocation of capital. Our novel ``deposit market access'' measure shows that bank funding grew most in capital-constrained counties within branching states. Both market access and border discontinuity designs indicate that branching’s organizational structure reduced capital allocation frictions to generate persistent growth. |
| JEL: | G21 G28 N12 N22 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34457 |
| By: | Carlos Díaz (Universidad Externado de Colombia); James Torres (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | In 1798, the Spanish Crown enacted a law to consolidate the public debt by collecting and converting public bonds into a new, lower-interest liability. Known as decreto de consolidación de vales reales, the restructuring involved selling a significant portion of the clerical holdings, with the sale proceeds becoming interest-bearing loans payable by the Crown. In 1804, Spanish authorities extended the consolidación to the Spanish American realms, causing major changes in credit and land markets. This paper explores the impact of the measure by assembling the most extensive data set on consolidación payments in the viceroyalty of the New Kingdom of Granada (present-day Colombia and Ecuador). The research focuses on two related topics. First, the size and structure of the payments, including the importance of property sales and clerical loan recalls in the overall financial flows of the consolidación. Second, the paper examines the policy’s effect on land tenure inequality by analyzing the distribution of payments across social groups and regions. The evidence suggests that New Granada’s structure of land ownership remained largely unscathed, as most of the expropriation targeted the clerical capital borrowed by the laity. The valuation of rural estates proved difficult, while large landowners, through co-optation or litigation, managed to avoid loan recalls. Yet, the paper argues that the consolidación spurred inequality by affecting small and mid-size borrowers. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, Expropriations, Land Tenure, Fiscal History, Colombia |
| JEL: | N16 N26 N46 D6 Q15 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021759 |
| By: | Kampmann, David; Peters, Nils |
| Abstract: | Is the formation of venture capital (VC) markets a national phenomenon? Against the common view that VC emerged in the US in the post-WWII period and later (yet independently) in Europe, we argue that the uneven relation between US and UK VC markets was crucial for British VC formation since the 1980s. Based on an empirical analysis of secondary literature and financial data, the article demonstrates that this relation is better understood through the lens of international financial subordination and identifies three types of dependencies to qualify this relation: the dependencies of UK VC on US start-up investments, US growth capital, and US exit deals. This type of financial subordination is specific to ‘alternative finance’, because highly profitable VC exits kick-started a flywheel effect in UK VC in the 2000s, and the subsequent expansion of British VC went hand in hand with a concentration of capital because UK VC followed a ‘winners-take-all’ logic that is characteristic of alt-finance in general. This suggests, counterintuitively, that after UK VC formed, the US economy benefitted more in financial, economic, and technological terms from the growing British VC market than its UK counterpart mainly because most large exit deals took place in the US. |
| Keywords: | international financial subordination; dependency; technological innovation; US finance; UK start-up economy; venture capital |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2025–11–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130147 |
| By: | Takeki Sunakawa (Professor, Faculty of Economics, Hitotsubashi University (E-mail: takeki.sunakawa@gmail.com)) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the extent to which fiscal factors have contributed to inflation in Japan over the past four decades. Despite sustained fiscal expansion and rising debt since the 1990s, inflation remained low until recent years. Using the medium-scale DSGE model developed by Bianchi et al. (2023), we estimate the model with Japanese data and find that, in contrast to the U.S. case, unfunded fiscal shocks are not the main drivers of inflation in Japan. Instead, real demand and supply shocks, along with accommodative monetary policy, have played more significant roles in shaping inflation dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, Fiscal Theory of Price Level, Japan |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E62 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ime:imedps:25-e-14 |
| By: | Stella Keijzer; Kunal Sen |
| Abstract: | We revisit the iconic Kuznets (1955) paper, which postulated a clear positive relationship between inequality and economic development in the early stages of structural transformation. Using a newly released global dataset on income inequality—the WIID Companion—we set out the stylized facts of the Kuznets curve for a range of developing and developed countries. We examine the relationship between the net income Gini and per capita income, as well as the relationship between the net income Gini and structural transformation. |
| Keywords: | Kuznets, Inequality, Economic development, Structural transformation, Manufacturing, Services |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-79 |
| By: | Becker, Ann-Kristin (University of Cologne); Hornung, Erik (University of Cologne) |
| Abstract: | Industrialization boosts aggregate incomes, but its distributional effects remain debated. We study the impact of coal-driven industrialization on unskilled labor incomes using novel panel data on wages from 667 Prussian localities (1800–1879), extended with county-level data through 1914. Exploiting spatial variation in coal proximity in difference-in-differences and event-study designs, we find that wage gains in coal-rich regions emerged once industrialization accelerated in the 1850s and continued to grow until WWI. Evidence from 3, 000 household accounts shows that coal proximity raised labor incomes primarily for low-skilled workers, with weaker effects for high-skilled and mechanical occupations. This pattern suggests that industrialization reduced wage inequality by compressing the local skill premium. Mediation analysis indicates that wage gains for unskilled workers were primarily driven by technology adoption and the increasing de mand for low-skilled labor, rather than by sectoral change or the spread of the factory system. |
| Keywords: | Industrialization, Labor income, Energy transition, Structural change, Technological change, Deskilling, Nineteenth-century Prussia JEL Classification: C23, J31, N33, N73, N93, O13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:779 |
| By: | Jaime Bonet-Morón; Jorge Guerra-España; Jhorland Ayala-García |
| Abstract: | En diversas regiones del mundo, se han promovido reorganizaciones territoriales mediante la división y creación de unidades administrativas, como mecanismos para mejorar el desarrollo local y la representación política. Este trabajo evalúa las consecuencias a largo plazo de las separaciones regionales en Colombia, comparando los municipios que permanecieron en sus regiones originales con aquellos que se integraron a las nuevas. A partir de datos históricos sobre divisiones regionales en el siglo XX, implementamos un diseño de regresión discontinua geográfica, utilizando la distancia de cada municipio al límite de separación como variable continua. Esto nos permite estimar el impacto de la separación administrativa sobre los indicadores actuales de desarrollo (pobreza multidimensional y necesidades básicas insatisfechas), bajo el supuesto de que los municipios cercanos a la frontera eran similares ex ante. Los resultados muestran que no hay efectos significativos a largo plazo de la separación sobre el desarrollo de los municipios. **** ABSTRACT: In various regions around the world, territorial reorganizations have been promoted through the division and creation of administrative units as mechanisms to improve local development and political representation. This study evaluates the long-term consequences of regional separations in Colombia by comparing municipalities that remained in their original regions with those that joined newly created ones. Using historical data on regional divisions, we implement a geographic regression discontinuity design, using each municipality’s distance to the separation boundary as a continuous variable. This allows us to estimate the causal impact of administrative separation on current development indicators, under the assumption that municipalities near the border were similar ex ante. The results do not reveal significant long-term effects of separation on municipal poverty. |
| Keywords: | separación territorial, autonomía, pobreza, regresión discontinua geográfica, territorial separation, autonomy, poverty, geographic regression discontinuity |
| JEL: | P25 H72 D72 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:cheedt:67 |
| By: | Paul Bingley; Claus Thustrup Kreiner; Benjamin Ly Serena |
| Abstract: | Socioeconomic inequality in longevity is typically measured using a single socioeconomic indi-cator such as education or income. We combine multiple indicators—education, income, occu-pation, wealth, and IQ scores—and apply machine learning to measure inequality in longevity. Using Danish population-wide data spanning 40 years, we track mortality for the 1942–44 birth cohorts from age 40 onwards to estimate life expectancy by socioeconomic status. Individuals at the top of the socioeconomic distribution live nearly 25 years longer than those at the bottom. The socioeconomic gradient in life expectancy becomes 50–150% steeper when using multiple indicators. |
| Keywords: | life expectancy, inequality, machine learning |
| JEL: | I14 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12249 |
| By: | Atheendar Venkataramani; Rourke O'Brien; Elizabeth Bair; Christopher Lowenstein |
| Abstract: | We study the health consequences of redistributing political power through the 1975 extension of the Voting Rights Act, which eliminated barriers to voting for previously disenfranchised nonwhite populations. The intervention led to broad declines in under-five mortality but sharply contrasting effects in other age groups: mortality fell among non-white children, younger adults, and older women, yet rose among whites and older non-white men. These differences cannot be reconciled by changes in population composition or material conditions. Instead, we present evidence suggesting psychosocial stress and retaliatory responses arising from perceived status threat as key mechanisms. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.26857 |
| By: | Pasquale Della Corte (Imperial College Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)); Can Gao (University of St.Gallen; Swiss Finance Institute; Swisss Institute for Banking and Finance); Daniel P. A. Preve (Singapore Management University); Giorgio Valente (Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research (HKIMR)) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the long-horizon predictive variance of an international bondstrategy where a U.S. investor holds unhedged positions in constant-maturity long-term foreign bonds funded at domestic short-term interest rates. Using over two centuries of data from major economies, the study finds that predictive variance grows with the investment horizon, driven primarily by uncertainties in interest rate differentials and exchange rate returns, which outweigh mean reversion effects. The analysis, incorporating both observable and unobservable predictors, highlights that unobservable predictors linked to shifts in monetary and exchange rate regimes are the dominant source of long-term risk, offering fresh insights into international bond investment strategies. |
| Keywords: | Currency risk, Long-term bonds, Predictability, Long-term investments |
| JEL: | F31 G12 G15 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2595 |
| By: | Becker, Sascha O. (University of Warwick and Monash University); Bentzen, Jeanet Sinding (University of Copenhagen); Kok, Chun Chee (Université Catholique de Louvain) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a survey of the literature on gender differences in religiosity and the influence of religion on gender-related economic and social outcomes. Part I examines why women tend to be more religious than men, discussing central explanations. Part II explores how religion impacts various gender-related outcomes, such as gender norms and attitudes, education, labor market participation, fertility, health, legal institutions and reforms, and discrimination. Within each domain, we distinguish between effects driven by individual religiosity (intensity of religious practice or belief) and those driven by their religious denomination. We synthesize findings from numerous studies, highlighting data sources, measures of religion and gender outcomes, and empirical strategies. We focus on studies with credible causal identification - such as natural experiments, instrumental variable approaches, and policy changes - to uncover the impact of religion on outcomes. Correlational studies are also reviewed to provide context. Across studies, the evidence suggests that religious teachings and participation often reinforce traditional gender roles, affecting women's education, labor force participation, and fertility choices, although there are important nuances and exceptions. We also document instances where secular reforms or religious movements have altered these outcomes. The survey concludes by identifying gaps in the literature and suggesting directions for future research. An important take-away from our review is that rigorous empirical studies are scarce, leaving room for novel causal studies in this field. |
| Keywords: | JEL Classification: |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:780 |
| By: | Jesse Bruhn; Jacob Fabian; Luke Gallagher; Matthew Gudgeon; Adam Isen; Aaron R. Phipps |
| Abstract: | We study the causal effect of different early career occupational experiences on labor market outcomes. To do so, we pair over two decades of administrative tax data with internal personnel records from one of the largest employers of young adults in the United States: the US Army. Enlistees work in a diverse and varied set of occupations, including non-combat roles like mechanics, legal services, financial specialists, cooks, dental hygienists, police officers, and network/computer specialists. Occupational eligibility is determined by test score cutoffs which we leverage in a series of 35 regression discontinuity designs. We find that a typical early career occupational experience generates a substantial amount of path dependence, with point estimates that suggest a 19p.p. increase in the likelihood of being observed in an identical or closely related occupation as much as 20 years later. The corresponding impact of different occupations on earnings are highly heterogeneous, yet predictable: long-run changes in the average earnings of the occupations applicants are pushed into, and pulled out-of, can explain over 60% of the causal variation across cutoffs, with point estimates that suggest improvements in occupational earnings premia translate dollar-for-dollar into economic success. Taken together, our results highlight the importance of early career occupational experience as a key channel for promoting long-run well-being among young adults who are not college bound. |
| JEL: | J20 J24 J3 J38 J4 J45 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34463 |