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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | Alberti, Manfredi; Telesca, Giuseppe |
| Abstract: | This paper aims at challenging a consolidated reading of the 1970s as an age of crisis par excellence, from the perspective of Britain and Italy. It focuses on both real economic facts and their interpretation by economists, “second hand dealers in economic ideas” and policy makers. We reflect on the actors who “proclaimed” the crisis in the 1970s and the recipes they suggested to overcome it. We argue that the rise of neoliberalism and the paradigm change in economic policies were also the product of a narrative construction, influenced by political and ideological reasons, which contrasted an extremely negative picture of the 1970s to a very positive, nearly caricatural, representation of the 1980s. |
| Keywords: | 1970s crisis; narrative economics; Keynesianism; neoliberalism; monetarism. |
| JEL: | B0 N1 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126624 |
| By: | L. Randall Wray |
| Abstract: | This working paper integrates the credit money approach (associated with Post Keynesian endogenous money theory) with the state money approach (associated with Modern Money Theory) by drawing on Wray's 1990 book (Money and Credit in Capitalist Economies: The Endogenous Money Approach, Edward Elgar), his 1998 book (Understanding Modern Money: the Key to Full Employment and Price Stability, Edward Elgar), and his 2004 edited book (Credit and State Theories of Money: The Contributions of A. Mitchell Innes, Edward Elgar). New sources and interpretation of the history of money make it clear that there is no contradiction between state money and private credit money--each played a role in the creation of the modern monetary system. Indeed, today's system was created by bringing state money into the private money giro, thereby strengthening both. |
| Keywords: | credit money; state money; Modern Money Theory (MMT); Bank of England; fiat money; giro money; history of money; central bank; nominalism; origins of money |
| JEL: | B25 B52 E42 E58 E62 N11 N20 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1076 |
| By: | Lin, Ziruo |
| Abstract: | This essay compares the influence of Confucianism in China and the Protestant ethic in Europe on both formal and informal institutions, examining their role in shaping divergent economic trajectories. Drawing on historical and institutional analysis, this essay integrates insights from economic history, sociology, and political theory. The findings contribute to debates on the cultural origins of the Great Divergence and offer broader insights into how culture interacts with governance structures and economic incentives over the long run. Understanding these historical dynamics is valuable not only for explaining the Great Divergence but also for interpreting contemporary patterns of development, governance, and social trust. In an era where policymakers and international organizations grapple with institutional reform, corruption, and cultural barriers to economic growth, the study highlights the importance of aligning institutional design with prevailing social norms to foster sustainable, inclusive development. |
| Keywords: | Confuscanism; the Protestant ethic; ideology; economy |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2025–10–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129934 |
| By: | William Van Lear; Daniel Hutchinson |
| Abstract: | This manuscript presents a detailed summary and reassessment of the 1941 final report of the Temporary National Economic Committee (TNEC). We portion the manuscript into four major parts: background, major themes, assessment of the report, and additional analysis and reflection. In the first section, we cover what compelled the government's investigation and we identify the committee's makeup and mission. We also identify eight historical precedents for the report. In the major themes section, we provide a detailed layout of the TNEC's "monopoly investigation" and its search for what structural impediments may have existed to economic recovery during the 1930s. The themes include competition, concentration, technology, trade barriers, business investment, small business, and fiscal and monetary policy. Part 3 assesses the report by looking at one important early assessment completed in the 1940s. We identify three TNEC concerns, namely the (1) development of oligopoly, (2) savings-investment imbalance, and (3) war mobilization and democracy. Part 3 understands the TNEC report from an institutionalist or stage theory perspective of history and economics. This part ends with a review of conservative thinking at the time of the report and shortly thereafter. The final section looks at the connection between the institutional context of the economy and the economy's economic performance. It is clear that the TNEC understood that systemic economic change had occurred since the Gilded Age, and that the economy had become oligopolized well before the Great Depression. The committee came to believe that the evolution of the economic system into a concentrated corporate one had increased inequality, the effect of which was to boost the volume of savings while retarding the level of investment. |
| Keywords: | Government Report; Economic Concentration; Structural Impediments; Political Economy |
| JEL: | F30 N10 N14 P16 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1078 |
| By: | Adereth, Maya |
| Abstract: | Scholars of the welfare state have long argued that, in liberal democracies, welfare state expansion depends on successful coalitions in its favour. Under what circumstances do these coalitions form? Party systems, economic interest, and political mobilisation have all been thought to influence the emergence of coalitions for welfare state expansion. In this article, I argue that law plays a critical role in facilitating the last of these factors. Drawing on a growing body of literature that sees law as constitutive of, rather than merely reflective of, social relations, I demonstrate that available legal forms meaningfully inform opportunities for welfare coalitions. In particular, I examine how debates over what a trade union is—a voluntary association of individuals, or a corporate body deserving of a state statute—shaped coalitions for welfare reform in the US and the UK at the turn of the twentieth century. |
| Keywords: | comparative politics; historical sociology; institutional political economy; law; trade unions; welfare state |
| JEL: | P16 K00 J51 |
| Date: | 2025–10–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129715 |
| By: | Önnerfors, Martin |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the methodology for geocoding historical Swedish census data from 1878-1950, developed as part of the research project "Cities and Socioeconomic Segregation in the Long Term, 1880-2017." While Sweden's historical demographic data is renowned for its quality and coverage, geocoding this data presents unique challenges that cannot be solved using modern geocoding APIs. The primary obstacles include temporal changes in address-coordinate relationships, street relocations, and the complete disappearance of spatial units through demolition and redevelopment. Historical Swedish census data varies in geographic precision, ranging from village-level information in rural areas to property-level detail in urban centers like Stockholm. The paper proposes a solution based on constructing a "canonical" historical address and property database that incorporates temporal dimensions, allowing for accurate matching at specific time points. This database is compiled from multiple sources and validated against georeferenced historical city maps. The methodology addresses the distinction between property-level (block name and number) and address-level (street name and house number) geocoding, with property coordinates proving more temporally stable. Manual data collection and quality assurance are essential components of the process, particularly for areas subject to major urban redevelopment such as Stockholm's Klara neighborhood. This approach enables accurate geocoding of historical census data while maintaining spatial precision appropriate for demographic analysis of urban segregation patterns over more than a century. |
| Date: | 2025–10–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:bfn24_v1 |
| By: | Yuri Ostrovsky |
| Abstract: | A study forthcoming in American Economic Journal: Applied Economics compares absolute intergenerational income mobility rates in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and Finland. The rate of absolute intergenerational income mobility is defined as the fraction of adult children in the population whose income is higher than that earned by their parents at the same age. Earlier studies showed a dramatic decline in the rate of absolute intergenerational income mobility in the United States: while about 90% of 30-year-old Americans born in the 1940s could be expected to do better than their parents did at the same age, this was true for just over 50% of 30-year-old Americans born in the 1980s. An analysis that is more limited in scope showed that the rate of absolute intergenerational income mobility in Canada at age 30 had remained relatively stable for those born from 1977 to 1985, and most 30-year-old Canadians born in the 1980s had higher inflation-adjusted family income than their parents did at the same age. |
| Keywords: | income mobility, intergenerational income mobility, investing |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2023–12–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202301200001e |
| By: | Mufandaedza, Dhibhora |
| Abstract: | Zimbabwe has undergone remarkable political and economic changes since its liberation from British colonial rule in 1980. The first years after independence were characterised by optimism and progress. However, the nation also faced a plethora of hurdles, including political instability, economic decline and social unrest. Over time, the political environment became increasingly repressive. One cannot help but say that ZANU-PF as a whole has failed to meet the needs of Zimbabwean citizens. Zimbabwe continues to struggle with economic hurdles, political volatility, policy gaps, misgovernance, corruption, soaring inflation, unemployment and the need for sustainable reforms. The transition from colonialism to post-colonialism was characterised by violence and politicised identities, leading to false starts and repetition in the political landscape over the years. The situation in Zimbabwe is best described as from the gutter to the sewer. The Mnangagwa regime, which took over from Mugabe has made the situation worse for the citizens of Zimbabwe. Despite the holding of elections in 2018 and 2023, the political landscape in Zimbabwe remains tumultuous, characterised by intricate power struggles and counter-plots within the ruling party, ZANU-PF. The prevailing political culture has evolved into a labyrinthine and violent milieu, surpassing even the tumultuous nature witnessed during Mugabe's tenure. It is evident that the Mnangagwa regime is an outgrowth of Mugabeism, with the so-called Second Republic failing to effectuate a definitive departure from the Mugabe era.Munangagwa has not only failed to demilitarise the state, but has exacerbated militarisation, officially integrating the military into the nation’s political fabric. |
| Keywords: | Political, economic, independence, government of national unity, military, transition, Zimbabwe. |
| JEL: | N00 |
| Date: | 2025–01–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126609 |
| By: | Gareth Campbell (Queen’s University Belfast); Áine Gallagher (Queen’s University Belfast); Richard S.Grossman (Department of Economics, Wesleyan University) |
| Abstract: | Substantial amounts of British capital flowed to Latin America during the first era of globalisation. Companies financed by this capital were typically headquartered in the UK, but operated thousands of miles away. This paper asks how this geographic separation between governance and business activities affected the valuation of these firms. We find that the location of the headquarters played a more important role than the location of operations. Stock prices tended to fluctuate in line with other equities based in the UK, suggesting that they were still regarded as being, at least partially, British companies. |
| Keywords: | Latin America, equity markets, portfolio investing, emerging markets |
| JEL: | F21 F54 F65 G11 G12 G15 G51 N16 N26 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wes:weswpa:2025-010 |
| By: | Jason Fletcher; Hamid Noghanibehambari |
| Abstract: | Several competing theories in a number of disciplines point to a possible influence of fertility history on health and mortality. However, the direction of effects is theoretically a-priori unknown and the empirical evidence is also inconclusive. This paper examines the effects of fertility during midlife on later-life longevity using Social Security Administration death records linked with the full-count 1940 census. We tackle endogeneity and selection concerns in the longevity-fertility association by implementing an instrumental variable based on the sex composition of first two children. Our findings indicate that having an extra child is linked to a decrease in women’s longevity by approximately 5 months. Men, on the other hand, experience smaller and insignificant reductions in longevity of about 3.3 months. This divergence in effects suggests that biological factors may play a small role in the relationship between fertility and later-life longevity. |
| JEL: | I1 J13 N0 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34378 |
| By: | Wang, Gaowang; Zou, Heng-fu |
| Abstract: | In this article, we develop a growth theory by integrating the Weber-Schumpeterian spirit of capitalism into Romer's (1990) model of endogenous technological change. The spirit of capitalism influences innovation and long-run growth through capital accumulation and the reallocation of human capital, mediated by a price mechanism. It also helps prevent economic stagnation arising from a limited stock of human capital. Explicit solutions illustrate the qualitative effects of the spirit of capitalism on growth. Using calibrated parameters based on U.S. data, we find this effect is quantitatively significant, accounting for more than half of U.S. long-run growth. |
| Keywords: | Weber's Spirit of Capitalism; Schumpeter's entrepreneurial psychology; Endogenous Growth; Economic Stagnation; Heterogeneous Ability |
| JEL: | E1 O3 O4 |
| Date: | 2025–10–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126518 |
| By: | Efraim Benmelech; Joao Monteiro |
| Abstract: | This paper provides systematic evidence on the macroeconomic consequences of war using a new dataset covering 115 conflicts and 145 countries over the past 75 years. We document three main findings. First, conflict generates large and persistent real effects: real GDP falls by 13% on average with no recovery even after a decade, while investment collapses as financial frictions reduce domestic credit. The drop in real activity is more pronounced for civil wars than it is for interstate conflicts. Second, government finances deteriorate as revenues contract while expenditures remain stable, thus raising primary deficits. Real government debt also declines, and governments shift 1.2% of GDP towards short maturities. Third, governments rely heavily on inflation to finance their deficits: the price level and money supply both rise by nearly 50%, eroding debt and generating seigniorage but also depressing investment and raising the cost of imported capital goods. |
| JEL: | E51 E62 F51 H56 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34389 |
| By: | Luisa Corrado; Stefano Grassi; Aldo Paolillo |
| Abstract: | Recent studies suggest that space activities generate significant economic benefits. This paper attempts to quantify these effects by modeling both business cycle and long–run effects driven by space sector activities. We develop a model in which technologies are shaped by both a dedicated R&D sector and spillovers from space†sector innovations. Using U.S. data from the 1960s to the present day, we analyze patent grants to distinguish between space and core sector technologies. By leveraging the network of patent citations, we further examine the evolving dependence between space and core technologies over time. Our findings highlight the positive impact of the aerospace sector on technological innovation and economic growth, particularly during the 1960s and 1970s. |
| Keywords: | Aerospace, Space Economy, Growth |
| JEL: | A1 C5 E00 O10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsr:niesrd:573 |
| By: | Francesco Ferlenga |
| Abstract: | Dominant groups have long used public monuments to project their power and narrative. How do divisive monuments affect where dissenting groups choose to live? I show that the construction of Confederate monuments in the U.S. South—supported by whites and opposed by Black Americans—reduced Black population shares via out-migration. To isolate the causal effect of monuments from local ideology, I employ an instrumental variable strategy based on connection to a key monument producer. An online experiment corroborates the historical analysis, showing that Black respondents today are less likely to accept job offers in hypothetical cities visually associated with Confederate monuments. |
| Keywords: | discrimination, divisive symbols, monuments |
| JEL: | D72 J15 J18 N32 P16 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1520 |
| By: | Jeff Borland (Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a five-year review of Australia’s labour market spanning what I term the ‘COVID-19 era’, from early 2020 through to the end of 2024. A first objective is to provide a history of the main developments in the labour market during this tumultuous period. The evolution of employment outcomes across different phases is charted, together with analysis of how adjustment happened, and which jobs and workers were most affected. In addition, topics relating to wage growth, labour supply and labour productivity, and the role of government policy, are covered in detail. A second objective is to demonstrate that understanding the COVID-19 era enables important lessons to be drawn about the operation of Australia’s labour market and about policy – relevant both for today and for similar future episodes. |
| Keywords: | labour market; Australia; COVID-19; Policy; employment; wages; productivity |
| JEL: | J01 J08 J40 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2025n15 |
| By: | Pierre Pénet (ENS Paris Saclay - Ecole Normale Supérieure Paris-Saclay, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This article investigates the renewed significance of the odious debt doctrine in contemporary sovereign finance. Initially formulated to challenge debts contracted by illegitimate regimes, the doctrine now engages broader debates around creditor accountability and abusive lending practices. Drawing on case studies including Cuba, Costa Rica, Iraq, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Greece, the article traces the doctrine's shift from a legal basis for debt repudiation to a versatile tool of political contestation and market signaling. Despite its legal ambiguity, the odious debt doctrine remains a powerful vehicle for challenging illegitimate debt and redefining sovereign borrowing in an era of intensified scrutiny of creditor behavior.Recent debt crises have seen the rise or resurgence of various legal counter-cultures. This article examines one of their most structured expressions: the doctrine of odious debt. Situated within a broader set of efforts aimed at limiting the unchecked assertion of creditors' rights, the doctrine contributes to an ongoing redefinition of the normative architecture governing sovereign credit relations. Although diverse in design and scope, these approaches share a core idea: debtors have rights and creditors cannot be absolved from responsibilities. In a marked departure from the orthodox conception of sovereign lending, they reject the premise that the mere extension of credit establishes an absolute right to repayment. On the contrary, creditors, too, may be held to standards of accountability, particularly when debt contracts are compromised by elements of illegitimacy.The odious debt doctrine rests on a fundamental contestation of the legal validity of debts contracted under tainted conditions, especially when the borrowing regime lacks legitimacy or when the funds are used for purposes contrary to the public interest.Originally articulated in the early 20th century in relation to issues of state succession, the doctrine has undergone successive evolutions in both its criteria and scope, |
| Date: | 2025–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05151682 |
| By: | Patrick Plane (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International, CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, UM6P - Université Mohammed VI Polytechnique = Mohammed VI Polytechnic University [Ben Guerir]) |
| Abstract: | Institutions are increasingly recognised as one of the invisible factors which explain long-term economic performance. In 2024, the Nobel Academy awarded its prize to three economists who have made a major contribution to improving knowledge on the subject: Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson. This article looks back at some of their most important publications, offering a sometimes-critical commentary on their work and questions the implications it may have, particularly on the impact of iinternational migration on institutions. |
| Abstract: | Les institutions sont reconnues comme étant l'un des facteurs de moins en moins invisibles des performances économiques de long terme. En 2024, l'académie Nobel a décerné son prix à trois économistes ayant largement contribué à l'amélioration de la connaissance sur le sujet : Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson et James Robinson. L'article revient sur quelques-unes des publications les plus marquantes des auteurs pour y apporter un commentaire parfois critique et pour identifier les implications que peuvent avoir ces travaux, notamment sur l'incidence des migrations internationales à venir sur les institutions. |
| Keywords: | Colonisation, Social capital, Prosperity, Institutions, Democracy, Capital social, Prospérité, Migrations, Démocratie |
| Date: | 2025–10–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cdiwps:hal-05323907 |
| By: | Sun, Yiyang |
| Abstract: | Yang, drawing on his inframarginal economics framework, argued that China's dual-track reforms would fail without constitutional shock therapy, predicting that the absence of proper institutional transitions would lead to corruption and economic stagnation. Conversely, Lin's New Structural Economics advocated for gradual reform based on comparative advantages, arguing that late-comers could benefit by developing industries aligned with their factor endowments. This essay examines the 2002 to 2003 debate between economists Justin Yifu Lin and Xiaokai Yang regarding China's economic reforms and late-comer advantages. Through an analysis of recent empirical evidence (2020-2025), this essay demonstrates that Yang's predictions largely failed to materialize: China's dual-track system succeeded despite lacking constitutional transformation, with state-owned enterprises contributing positively to growth and anti-corruption campaigns improving productivity. However, Lin's framework also proves insufficient in explaining China's success. The paper concludes that economic forecasting necessarily sacrifices scientific rigor in favor of broad generalizations, suggesting that economics should focus on explaining existing phenomena rather than predicting uncertain futures. |
| Keywords: | later-comer advantage/disadvantage; constitutional transition; Chinese economy; dual-track reforms; empirical revolution |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2025–10–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129935 |
| By: | Bharti, Nitin Kumar; Gethin, Amory; Jenmana, Thanasak; Mo, Zhexun; Piketty, Thomas; Yang, Li |
| Abstract: | This paper constructs a new global historical database on public expenditure and revenue and their components-particularly education and health expenditure-covering all world regions over the 1800-2025 period. We document a large rise of human capital expenditure (as % of GDP) in all parts of the world in the long run, but with enormous and persistent inequality between regions. Public education expenditure per school-age individual in Sub-Saharan Africa is about 3% of the level observed in Europe and North America in 2025 in PPP terms (versus 6% in 1980 and 4% in 1950). We also find a large impact of human capital expenditure on productivity growth over the 1800-2025 period, especially for public education and for poor countries. Estimated returns using our macro-historical database are around 10% or more, in line with micro studies. Finally, we present simulations based on alternative human capital expenditure trajectories over the 2025-2100 period. In particular, we analyze the conditions under which convergence in human capital expenditure could lead to global productivity convergence by 2100 (around 100€ per hour in all regions in our benchmark scenario). |
| Keywords: | Human Capital, Productivity, Education, Health, Global Inequality |
| JEL: | E24 H5 I15 I25 N10 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:330312 |
| By: | Jenkins, Kush DBA (Northern Virginia Community College); Whitfield, Carlos; Johnson, Anthony |
| Abstract: | This paper reexamines the economic effects of the Montgomery Bus Boycott, an event often celebrated for its moral and social significance, yet underexplored in terms of its fiscal implications. We assess the hypothesis that the Boycott had no measurable impact on the City of Montgomery’s public finances and find compelling evidence to the contrary. Our analysis demonstrates that the Boycott significantly contracted municipal revenue and simultaneously escalated public expenditures, particularly in policing and fire services, driven by the city's "get tough" policy response. Using historical financial records and time-series forecasting (ARIMA), we quantify the growing fiscal strain experienced by the city. Although Montgomery maintained budget surpluses during the Boycott period, projections indicate a rising probability of deficits had the protest continued beyond its resolution. These findings highlight the economic leverage wielded by organized civil resistance and underscore the material costs incurred by municipal governments when confronting movements for racial justice. |
| Date: | 2025–10–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:yguf9_v1 |
| By: | Russo, Alberto |
| Abstract: | Drawing on Peter Turchin’s structural-demographic theory, this paper provides a preliminary examination of how rising inequality and financial liberalization contribute to political instability through the interplay of mass immiseration and elite overproduction. We capture these dynamics through a simplified agent-based macroeconomic model, introducing two structural shocks - growing inequality and financial liberalization - that reflect the transformations reshaping advanced economies in recent decades, a process intertwined with political disintegration. A wealth tax on the richest households can reduce political fragmentation and improve economic performance, but lasting resilience will require embedding such measures within a broader rethinking of the policy paradigm that has prevailed since the 1980s. |
| Keywords: | growing inequality; financial liberalization; political instability; agent-based model |
| JEL: | C63 D31 E02 |
| Date: | 2025–10–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126357 |
| By: | Jonathan H. Cantor; Jill Horwitz; Christopher M. Whaley; Anthony Yu |
| Abstract: | Certificate of Need (CON) laws regulate entry and capital investments in healthcare with the goal of containing costs while preserving access and quality. This paper examines the relationship between these laws and overall mortality as well as leading causes of mortality: cancer and cardiovascular disease. Using county-level death records, we conducted an event-study analysis comparing mortality rates in states that repealed their CON laws to states that did not between 1979 and 2004. The repeal of CON laws was associated with short-run reductions in cancer mortality, primarily from reductions in lung cancer mortality. Cardiovascular mortality and all-cause mortality rates were unchanged. |
| JEL: | I0 I1 I11 I18 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34403 |
| By: | Alberto Baccini |
| Abstract: | This article challenges the conventional reading of Francis Ysidro Edgeworth by reconstructing his intellectual project of unifying the moral sciences through mathematics. The contribution he made in the first phase of his writing, culminating in \textit{Mathematical Psychics}, aimed to reconfigure utilitarianism as an exact science, grounding it in psychophysics and evolutionary biology. In order to solve the utilitarian problem of maximizing pleasure for a given set of sentient beings, he modeled individuals as ``quasi-Fechnerian'' functions, which incorporated their capacity for pleasure as determined by their place in the evolutionary order. The problem of maximization is solved by distributing means according to the individuals' capacity for pleasure. His radical anti-egalitarian conclusions did not stem from an abstract principle of justice, but from the necessity to maximize welfare among naturally unequal beings. This logic was applied not only to sentients of different evolutionary orders, such as Mr. Pongo, a famous gorilla, and humans, but also to human races, sexes, and classes. The system, in essence, uses the apparent neutrality of science to naturalize and justify pre-existing social hierarchies. This analysis reveals that the subsequent surgical removal of his utilitarianism by economists, starting with Schumpeter, while making his tools palatable, eviscerates his overarching philosophical system. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.20854 |
| By: | Wulong Gu; Michael Willox |
| Abstract: | Canada and the United States share a deep economic relationship marked by intricate supply chains and infrastructure networks. While the performances of the two economies have diverged for brief periods, indicators, such as real gross domestic product and employment, typically show a tight common trend over the long term. The period from 1961 to 2001 in Chart 1 underscores the interconnectedness of both economies. |
| Keywords: | temporary foreign workers, study permit holders, transition to permanent residency, industrial retention, accommodation and food services |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2023–12–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202301200006e |
| By: | SUNAKAWA, Takeki |
| Abstract: | We investigate the extent to which fiscal factors have contributed to inflation in Japan over the past four decades. Despite sustained fiscal expansion and rising debt since the 1990s, inflation remained low until recent years. Using the medium-scale DSGE model developed by Bianchi et al. (2023), we estimate the model with Japanese data and find that, in contrast to the U.S. case, unfunded fiscal shocks are not the main drivers of inflation in Japan. Instead, real demand and supply shocks, along with accommodative monetary policy, have played more significant roles in shaping inflation dynamics., First draft: July 2005. This draft: September 2025 |
| Keywords: | Inflation, Fiscal Theory of Price Level, Japan |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-151 |
| By: | Robert Skidelsky |
| Abstract: | As we all know, Frankenstein was the scientist in Mary Shelley's 1818 novel of the same name, who invented a human machine--intended to be a benefactor, but which turned out to be a monster. There is a critical question I wish to address this evening: Can we avoid our technology destroying us? This is the most important thread that runs through my book, Mindless, recently published in the United States. The book discusses the impact of machines on jobs, on freedom, and on our survival as a species. The question that dominates all three concerns the impact of machines on our humanness. Today we ponder whether there is still time to control the Machine before it controls us. I will talk about three Frankensteins who each set out to create gods and, in turn, created monsters. This paper is based on remarks delivered at the EDI Keynote Lecture at Bard College, November 19th, 2024: "Frankenstein in Fact and Fiction." |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence; technology |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1073 |
| By: | Mr. Alexander Culiuc; Hyunmin Park |
| Abstract: | We introduce a novel dataset of large depreciations worldwide since 1971. First, we use a multi-step approach to accurately pinpoint large depreciation events on monthly data. We then construct large depreciation episodes that cover 24 months after the initial depreciation event. The month-level data allows for a granular characterization of the dynamics of large depreciations across multiple metrics, including maximum and equilibrium depreciations, overshooting, and number of depreciation events within a single episode. We then present stylized facts on episodes across various characteristics and groups (income, REER trajectory, number of events, exchange rate flexibility, and IMF-supported program status). Among these: (i) a few months into an episode, REER tends to appreciate unless there is an “aftershock” depreciation, (ii) attempts to peg following the initial depreciation are associated with a higher likelihood of “aftershocks”, and (iii) equilibrium REER depreciations are largest when an IMF-supported program is put in place after the initial depreciation takes place. |
| Keywords: | exchange rate; crisis; inflation; real exchange rate; overshoooting; equilibrium depreciation |
| Date: | 2025–10–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/221 |
| By: | John Brown; Xenia Matschke; Juan Rene Rojas Rodriguez |
| Abstract: | Using a state of the art structural gravity model, we investigate the impact of various (post-)colonial cocoa trading arrangements on the cocoa trade between developing cocoa producer countries and rich industrial cocoa consumer nations in the time period 1951 to 1999. We find that in particular the trading arrangements of the European (Economic) Community (EEC/EC), such as the Association, Yaoundé and Lomé Agreements, as well as the UNCTAD International Cocoa Agreement, had a measurable positive impact on cocoa trade flows, in contrast to the British Commonwealth partnership or the GATT Generalized System of Preferences. In particular, the Yaoundé Agreement did not only increase the trade between other EEC/EC members and the signatory cocoa producers, but also strengthened the trading relationship between the former colonizer countries and their cocoa producing former colonies, in fact more than offsetting the negative effect of independence. |
| Keywords: | cocoa trade, developing country commodity trade, international trading arrangements, European (Economic) Community, gravity model |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F15 F54 F55 F63 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:trr:wpaper:202512 |