|
on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | Paolo Buonanno; Giacomo Plevani |
| Abstract: | This paper shows how enduring agrarian institutions shaped the long-run political consequences of historical shocks. We study Italy’s sharecropping system (mezzadria) - a centuries-old fifty-fifty contract that structured rural relations across central Italy - and link its prewar prevalence to Socialist and Communist voting from 1913 to 1948. Using harmonized data for 720 agrarian zones and a combination of cross-sectional, entropy-balanced, and spatial RDD designs, we find that sharecropping was politically neutral before World War I but became a center of rural unrest and Fascist repression afterward. Areas with more sharecroppers experienced greater strike activity, targeted violence, and enduring left alignment. A daily panel of 1921 events shows repression peaking during annual contract renewals. The results reveal a “revolt-repression-realignment” mechanism through which local economic institutions converted wartime shocks into lasting partisan divides. |
| JEL: | P16 N54 N44 D72 D74 Q15 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp1214 |
| By: | Blossey, Nils; Haffert, Lukas; Stoetzer, Lukas |
| Abstract: | Historical industrial centers have shifted to the right but have done so at different speeds and intensities. We argue that this variation can be explained by differences in the historical industrialization process. Communities that industrialized later and more intensively realign more toward the radical right today. This is because the built environment shaped by the original industrialization drives demographic persistence and neighborhood disadvantage. To examine our argument, we study the effects of nineteenth-century coal mining in Germany's Ruhr area. We match the geolocation of over 1, 000 mining shafts, historical plant-level employment data, and the spread of company housing with contemporary electoral results at the neighborhood level. For identification, we exploit the depth of coal deposits that governed the adoption of deep-shaft mining. The findings demonstrate how the path of economic development influences voting in the long run. |
| Date: | 2025–10–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:tswm7_v1 |
| By: | Eric Tymoigne |
| Abstract: | A monetary approach that combines Chartalism, Nominalism, and Command origins of monetary systems is often deemed to have emerged only recently, while the Aristotelian approach (Commodity, Metallism, and Market origins of monetary systems) is the only one that existed until the end of the eighteenth/early-nineteenth century. In the major studies of the history of monetary thought, the Chartalism-Nominalism-Command approach is mostly left unmentioned, or at best reduced to an incoherent banality. The paper shows that this approach has a long and rich intellectual history among European monetary thinkers. In Europe, Plato was its first exponent, albeit in a very rudimentary way, and so one may call it the "Platonic approach." It is developed by Roman legists (such as Javolenus, Paulus, and Ulpian) and Medieval legists (such as Du Moulin, Hotman, and Butigella) who note that coins are similar to securities and that debts are serviced when nominal sums are paid rather than specific coins tendered. During the Renaissance and early modern period, a series of scholars and financial practitioners (such as Law, Dutot, Thomas Smith, and James Taylor) emphasize the financial logic behind monetary mechanics and the similarity of coins and notes. In the twentieth century, authors such as Innes, Knapp, Keynes, and Commons build onto the groundwork provided by these past scholars. In China, the Chartalism-Nominalism-Command approach develops independently and dominates from the beginning under Confucian and Legist thoughts. They emphasize the statecraft origins of monetary systems, the role of tax redemption, and the irrelevance of the material used to make monetary instruments. Clay, lead, paper, iron, copper, and tin are normal and convenient means to make monetary instruments, they are not special/emergency materials. The essence of a monetary instrument is not defined by its materiality but rather by its chartality, that is, by the promise it embeds. The Platonic approach rejects the categories and conceptualizations used by the Aristotelian approach and develops new ones, which leads to a different set of inquiries and understanding of monetary phenomena, problems, and history. |
| Keywords: | History of monetary thoughts; monetary theory; Chartalism; Nominalism; asset pricing; redemption |
| JEL: | B10 B11 B20 B26 E42 E62 G12 H30 K15 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1058 |
| By: | Strachman, Eduardo |
| Abstract: | What makes a country grow and develop while another languishes in stagnation or regression? What kinds of decisions are made that lead to this divergence? This article seeks to illustrate this question through two examples of very close nations: China and Japan. It aims to compare the largely successful example of Japan with the failure of the former Chinese empire to withstand Western pressures, which became stronger following the attainment of industrial and military supremacy after the British Industrial Revolution and its imitation and subsequent surpassing by other European countries and the USA. This failure would only be reversed in the Chinese case in the 20th century, starting with the Revolution of 1949 and, more decisively, after the economic reforms initiated in 1978. The contrast between China’s ineffective response to the Western challenge and Japan’s effective and incredibly rapid response will be explained in the article, along with some of the reasons for these different reactions. It will be demonstrated how Japan undertook something entirely different by changing the Emperor and initiating the so-called Meiji Revolution, in place of the Tokugawa Era (1603-1867). This also resulted in Japan’s modern industrialization occurring nearly a century earlier than that of its Asian neighbors, including China. |
| Keywords: | Japan; China; Development; Economic Growth; Catch-Up |
| JEL: | L60 N15 O14 O21 O25 |
| Date: | 2025–08–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126428 |
| By: | Gregory Clark (University of Southern Denmark); Neil Cummins (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | What happens across generations to random wealth shocks? Do they endure and even magnify, or do they dissipate? By implication, how much of modern wealth is attributable to events before 1900? This paper uses random shocks to family size in England before 1880, that created wealth shocks for the children, to measure the persistence of random wealth shocks. Fertility for married couples in England before 1880 was not controlled, but was a biological lottery. And for richer families, family size strongly influenced child wealth. This paper finds that such biology-induced wealth shocks had no impact on descendent wealth by three generations later. Since wealth itself persisted strongly across more than five generations this implies that, in the long run, wealth mainly derives from sources other than wealth inheritance itself. The observed link between nineteenth century wealth and modern wealth does not lie in wealth transmission itself. Instead wealth persisted because of the inheritance within families of behaviors and abilities associated with wealth accumulation and wealth retention. |
| Keywords: | Wealth shocks, wealth persistence, wealth inheritance |
| JEL: | D31 E21 G51 N33 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0284 |
| By: | Stephan Heblich; Dávid Krisztián Nagy; Alex Trew; Yanos Zylberberg |
| Abstract: | Does industrial concentration shape the life and death of cities? We identify settlements from historical maps of England and Wales (1790–1820), isolate exogenous variation in their late 19th-century size and industrial concentration, and estimate the causal impact of size and concentration on later dynamics. Industrial concentration has a negative effect on long-run productivity—independent of industry trends and consistent with cross-industry Jacobs externalities. A spatial model quantifies the role of fundamentals, industry trends, and Jacobs externalities in shaping industry-city dynamics and isolates a new, dynamic trade-off in the design of place-based policies. |
| Date: | 2025–04–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:uobdis:25/797 |
| By: | Francesco Montaruli (Economic Research Unit, Banca d'Italia, Rome); Roberto Rinaldi (Luiss University - Rome) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the monetary theory of the Cambridge School, which emerged from the contributions of Alfred Marshall and Arthur Cecil Pigou between the late 19th and early 20th century. While still grounded in Fisher's quantity equation, the Cambridge School brought significant innovations to monetary theory. It emphasized the various functions of money beyond its role as a means of payment, which was the key insight of the quantity theory of money. The Cambridge School paved the way for new developments, eventually leading to John Mainard Keynes' 'A Treatise on Money' and 'The General Theory'. Specifically, Pigou examined the sum of currency and demand deposits as a ratio to nominal GDP, known as the k ratio. The Cambridge k is influenced by the current state of the economy and expectations regarding the purchasing power of money. Our analysis uses yearly time series data from Italy, spanning from its unification in 1861 to the introduction of the euro. We test the relationship between the k ratio and nominal interest rates. Our findings indicate that k follows a non-stationary process, challenging the notion of a stable velocity of circulation. However, when combined with two nominal non-stationary interest rates, we detect a cointegrating relationship which can be interpreted as a long-term equilibrium. The result of a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) estimated over the entire time span supports the theoretical predictions of the Cambridge School. |
| Keywords: | the Cambridge School and "k"; money; integration; cointegration; VECM |
| JEL: | B10 B13 C32 E41 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:workqs:qse_56 |
| By: | Wakamatsu, Naoyuki |
| Abstract: | The paper argues that Senior was still under the influence of Ricardo’s economics from the point of view of economic growth. Senior generally emphasised a sustainable growth of economy brought by the prudential check to population and the technological progress in agriculture, but it depended on wise institutions. However, on the other hand, he was familiar enough with Ricardian growth which enabled him to develop the initial effect of taxes, also existed in Ricardo, into the long-term consequences on the stationary state. In this sense, Senior was the orthodox successor of Ricardo, which means that his growth theory should be understood in the continuity with Ricardo’s growth theory. |
| Keywords: | Nassau Senior; David Ricardo; tithe; economic growth; stationary state |
| JEL: | B12 B31 |
| Date: | 2025–08–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125970 |
| By: | L. Randall Wray |
| Abstract: | This paper examines heterodox theories of the determinants of the value of money. Orthodox approaches that tie money's value to relative scarcity of money or to the price level are rejected as inconsistent with the monetary theory of production embraced by heterodox traditions linked to Marx, Veblen, and Keynes. This paper examines and integrates (1) recent contributions by David Graeber and Duncan Foley that reinterpret Marx's labor theory of value, (2) the interpretation of Keynes's liquidity preference theory as a theory of asset pricing that began with Sraffa and was further developed by Minsky and Kregel, and (3) Modern Money Theory's approach to sovereign currency. As Heilbroner argued, money is central to the internal logic of the capitalist system, and is what makes capitalism truly different from other social organizations. Our theory of value informs our beliefs about how the deep structure of the economic system generates a system of prices denominated in the money of account. |
| Keywords: | Labor theory of value; Modern Money Theory; Liquidity Preference; Monetary Theory of Production; Marx; Keynes; Minsky; Graeber; Foley; Sraffa; Heilbroner |
| JEL: | B14 B24 B25 B51 B52 E11 E12 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1062 |
| By: | Hong, Sehyun; Kim, Nak Nyeon; Mo, Zhexun; Yang, Li |
| Abstract: | We combine household survey micro data, tax data, and national accounts to construct annual pretax income inequality series for South Korea, which is coherent with macro aggregates. We provide the distribution of pretax national income over the time period from 1933 to 2022, with detailed breakdown by income composition in the years from 1996 to 2022. Our new series demonstrates that Korean top income shares decreased substantially from the 1930s up until the mid-1960s, following various wars, independence and land reform policies. Income inequalities then stabilized against the backdrop of rapid economic growth in the 1970s and 1980s, and decreased even further from the late 1980s onwards until the onset of the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997, which contradicts the “Kuznets Curve.” In the aftermath of the crisis, income inequality worsened due to the rise of tax-exempted capital income concentration at the top. Compared to other East Asian countries, South Korea exhibits relatively lower levels of income inequality in terms of higher bottom 50% income shares, mostly due to a more equal distribution of national income growth at the stages of economic take-off in the 1980s, even though income concentration at the very top has strikingly worsened over the last two decades, with its top 1% income shares in 2022 returning back to the peak only observed during the colonial era. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper) |
| Date: | 2025–10–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ym4k3_v1 |
| By: | Laura Panza; Yanos Zylberberg |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the grassroots of nation-building in times of mass migration. We study the emergence of cohesive communities and societal leadership within the scattered, diverse Jewish settlements of Mandatory Palestine between 1920 and 1947. Our empirical strategy relies on a new “frontier expansion†algorithm to predict the dynamics of Jewish settlement creation, which we combine with migrant characteristics in a shift-share design to isolate exogenous variation in the local composition of settlers across locations. We find that: (i) leaders who played a crucial role in shaping the early state of Israel emerged from diverse communities; (ii) these communities were more cohesive and maintained better relationships with Arab neighbors; and (iii) these effects are predominantly observed in kibbutzim, i.e., integrated settlements with communal lifestyle. Further evidence suggests that these diverse, tight-knit communities were facing and addressing nation-building challenges at a local level, e.g., setting up institutions to foster a shared identity. |
| Date: | 2025–04–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:uobdis:25/796 |
| By: | Claude Diebolt; Michael Haupert |
| Abstract: | This article celebrates the thirtieth anniversary of Région et Développement by revisiting the dialogue it has nurtured between development economics and spatial economics. We situate our contribution within this tradition by engaging with selected chapters from the Handbook of Cliometrics, highlighting how long-run historical perspectives can illuminate contemporary spatial and territorial dynamics. Building on the contribution of Diebolt and Hippe in Région et Développement, we extend their cliometric approach to examine the persistence of disparities, the role of institutions, and the impact of policy interventions. Our analysis emphasizes that territorial development must be understood within long-term trajectories shaped by demographic forces, shocks, and innovations. We argue that historically grounded and spatially sensitive perspectives are essential for designing effective policies aimed at reducing regional inequalities. By weaving together insights from cliometrics and regional development, our study illustrates the value of connecting historical causality with spatial analysis. In doing so, we reaffirm the journal’s mission of combining analytical rigor with societal relevance. |
| Keywords: | Forest Regional development, Cliometrics, Territorial disparities, Institutions and public policy, Long-term historical dynamics. |
| JEL: | N10 N90 O18 R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2025-43 |
| By: | Joerg Bibow |
| Abstract: | This paper revisits Keynes's (1930) essay titled "The economic possibilities for our grandchildren." We discuss the three broader trends identified by Keynes that he expected would come to characterize the socio-economic evolution of advanced countries under individualistic capitalism: first, continued technological progress and capital accumulation as the main drivers of exponential growth in economic possibilities; second, a gradual general rebalancing of life choices away from work; and third, a change in the code of morals in societies approaching an envisioned stationary state of zero net capital accumulation in which mankind has solved its economic problem and enjoys a lifestyle predominantly framed by leisure rather than disutility-yielding work. We assess actual outcomes by 2023 and attempt to peek into the future economic possibilities for this generation's grandchildren. |
| Keywords: | Keynes; technology; growth; work; leisure; capitalism |
| JEL: | B22 B31 E20 J22 N10 Q40 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1038 |
| By: | Boughabi, Houssam |
| Abstract: | This study simulates the labor market dynamics in Germany during 1914-1920, focusing on the impact of World War I on wage expectations and economic stability. Built upon the historical context of the period, the simulation takes into account the initial wage hikes driven by involuntary unemployment and the exodus of workers from civilian industries to war-related industries. It then explores the subsequent stabilization of wages, as observed in the empirical reality of the era. Using simulated data, the paper examines how workers' expectations of future wages were shaped by current wage conditions amidst the economic strain caused by the war. The study also investigates the role of national unity, government policies, and institutional frameworks in preserving wage stability during market volatility. To analyze wage dynamics, the research applies a dynamic wage model alongside the FIGARCH(1, d, 1) model, estimating long-memory effects in wage volatility. The findings suggest that past economic conditions played a significant role in shaping current wage expectations, with light long-memory properties observed in wage volatility. This simulated analysis offers insights into how economic pressures and government interventions during wartime may have contributed to wage stability, shaping the uncertainty of workers into forecasting the war ending which goes in accordance with the martingale hypothesis of wages expectations. Our study is contextual and qualitative and discusses the properties of economical series based on the context of the period. |
| Keywords: | Wage Volatility, Long Memory Processes, Labor Market Dynamics, Economic History |
| JEL: | C22 E24 J31 N34 |
| Date: | 2025–05–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126295 |
| By: | Alan de Bromhead (Department of Economics, University College Dublin); Ronan Lyons (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin); Johann Ohler (London School of Economics and Political Science) |
| Abstract: | Poor housing conditions, and the negative effects of Household Air Pollution (HAP) in particular, remain one of the most pressing global public health challenges. While the association between poor housing and health has a long history, evidence of a direct link is lacking. In this paper, we examine a rare example of a public housing intervention in rural areas, namely the large-scale provision of high-quality housing in Ireland in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. We exploit a novel dataset of deaths-by-disease and deaths-by-age-and-sex over the period 1871–1919, to test the impact of the intervention on mortality. Our difference-in difference estimates indicate that improved housing conditions reduced mortality by as much as 1 death per 1000. This effect is driven by reductions in deaths from respiratory diseases. We propose a likely mechanism that is consistent with the pattern of results we observe: a reduction in Household Air Pollution through improved housing quality and better ventilation. A cost-benefit analysis reveals that the scheme was a highly cost-effective intervention. |
| Keywords: | Ireland; Labourers Acts; household air pollution; health transition; social housing; infectious disease |
| JEL: | N33 N93 Q53 O18 I14 J10 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep1525 |
| By: | Kenzhegaliyeva, Zhaniya |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the postwar economic growth of Germany and Japan using the Solow Growth Model and its extensions. By examining historical data on savings, investment, capital accumulation, and labor force dynamics, the study identifies the mechanisms behind rapid convergence toward steady-state output. Extending the model to incorporate human capital and labor heterogeneity, it highlights the role of mass education and gender inclusion in sustaining growth. Differences in female labor participation across East and West Germany and Japan are analyzed using the feminization U-hypothesis. The paper also considers political background and cultural factors shaping labor and capital outcomes. It concludes with policy recommendations for modern developing economies, drawn from the postwar experiences of Germany and Japan, emphasizing inclusive labor use, human capital investment, institutional credibility, and capital deepening. |
| Keywords: | economic miracle; Solow Growth Model; human capital; gender and development; catch-up growth; labor force participation |
| JEL: | N3 N34 N35 O1 O4 O47 O52 O53 O57 |
| Date: | 2025–07–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126039 |
| By: | Clément Gorin; Stephan Heblich; Yanos Zylberberg |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes 630, 000 paintings from 1400 onward to uncover how visual art reflects its socioeconomic context. We develop a learning algorithm to predict nine basic emotions conveyed in each painting and isolate a context effect—the emotional signal shared across artworks created in the same location and year—controlling for artist, genre, and epoch-specific influences. These emotion distributions encode subtle but meaningful information about the living standards, uncertainty, or inequality characterizing the context in which the artworks were produced. We propose this emotion-based measure, derived from historical artworks, as a novel lens to examine how societies experienced major socioeconomic transformations, including climate variability, trade dynamics, technological change, shifts in knowledge production, and political transitions |
| Date: | 2025–04–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:uobdis:25/793 |
| By: | Alan de Bromhead (University College Dublin); Ronan C. Lyons (Trinity College Dublin); Johann Ohler (London School of Economics and Political Science) |
| Abstract: | Poor housing conditions, and the negative effects of Household Air Pollution (HAP) in particular, remain one of the most pressing global public health challenges. While the association between poor housing and health has a long history, evidence of a direct link is lacking. In this paper, we examine a rare example of a public housing intervention in rural areas, namely the large-scale provision of high-quality housing in Ireland in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. We exploit a novel dataset of deaths-by-disease and deaths-by-age-and-sex over the period 1871–1919, to test the impact of the intervention on mortality. Our difference-in-difference estimates indicate that improved housing conditions reduced mortality by as much as 1 death per 1000. This effect is driven by reductions in deaths from respiratory diseases. We propose a likely mechanism that is consistent with the pattern of results we observe: a reduction in Household Air Pollution through improved housing quality and better ventilation. A cost-benefit analysis reveals that the scheme was a highly cost-effective intervention. |
| Keywords: | Ireland, Labourers Acts, household air pollution, health transition, social housing, infectious disease |
| JEL: | N33 N93 Q53 O18 I14 J10 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0286 |
| By: | Stephan Heblich; Marlon Seror; Hao Xu; Yanos Zylberberg |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of large, successful manufacturing plants on other local producers in China, focusing on “Million-Rouble Plants†built in the 1950s during a brief alliance with the U.S.S.R. The ephemeral geopolitical situation and the locations of allied and enemy airbases provide exogenous variation in plant siting. We find a boom-and-bust pattern: Counties hosting these plants were 80% more productive than control counties in 1982 but 20% less productive by 2010. This decline reflects the performance of local establishments, which exhibit low productivity, limited innovation, and high markup. Specialization hindered spillovers, preventing the emergence of new clusters and local entrepreneurship. |
| Date: | 2025–04–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:uobdis:25/792 |
| By: | Kendall, Will; Cirigo Jimenez, Rodrigo; Gogescu, Fiona; Rivera, Carla |
| Abstract: | Dr Alina-Sandra Cucu is an interdisciplinary scholar in the field of global labour studies and currently a research fellow at the Institute for Cultural Inquiry in Berlin. Her research has addressed Eastern and Central European labour relations, socialism and the post-1990 transformations in the former Soviet bloc, knowledge production in industrial settings, and histories of planning. In this wide-ranging interview Alina discusses her academic formation at the Central European University, the challenges of doing interdisciplinary research, and the role of history in her work, amongst other topics. |
| Keywords: | interdisciplinarity; history; ethnography; global labour studies; Romania |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2023–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129799 |
| By: | Paul C. Behler (University of Bonn); Paulina Schröder (Rockwool Foundation Berlin & Humboldt University of Berlin) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies ecospirituality - spiritual views that people have about the natural world. First, utilizing folklore data from around 1, 000 pre-industrial societies, we present the first comprehensive global measurement of ecospirituality. Our analysis reveals systematic cultural variation: ecospirituality is most prevalent in South America and least prevalent in Europe. Additionally, we find a strong negative correlation between ecospirituality and belief in high gods. Second, we study the potential impact of historical ecospirituality on current environmental attitudes. Combining data from the Integrated Values Survey with folklore, we find no statistically significant relationship between contemporary environmental attitudes and the prevalence of ecospirituality in the folklore of ones ancestors. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Attitudes, Ecospirituality, Folklore |
| JEL: | Q50 Z12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:377 |
| By: | Mariano Arana (Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política (IIEP). Centro de Estudios de Historia Económica Argentina y Latinoamericana (CEHEAL). Buenos Aires, Argentina.) |
| Abstract: | Este trabajo describe el Programa de Desarrollo de la Escuela de Economía en la FCE-UBA durante la década de 1960, en asociación con la Fundación Ford, y analiza su impacto en la educación económica en Argentina, sus tensiones y resultados. |
| Keywords: | Economistas; Fundación Ford; Desarrollo económico; Universidad de Buenos Aires; Ciencias Económicas |
| JEL: | A11 A14 A23 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ake:iiepdt:2024-91 |
| By: | Stephan Heblich; Stephen J. Redding; Yanos Zylberberg |
| Abstract: | We provide new evidence on the income distributional consequences of trade using the New World Grain Invasion in the 19th Century and variation in agroclimatic suitability for wheat across locations within England and Wales. We show that this large-scale agricultural trade shock led to structural transformation away from agriculture and a redistribution of population from rural to urban areas. We develop a quantitative spatial model to rationalize our empirical findings and evaluate the aggregate implications of this international trade shock. We use our model to undertake counterfactuals for the Grain invasion, holding constant other exogenous determinants of economic activity. We find modest aggregate welfare gains combined with much larger income distributional effects, with geography an important dimension along which these income distributional effects occur. |
| Date: | 2025–04–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:uobdis:25/790 |
| By: | Chaudhary, Latika (Naval Postgraduate School); Dupraz, Yannick (Paris Dauphine University, PSL University, LEDA, CNRS, IRD); Fenske, James (Department of Economics, University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | Combining detailed data on language and migration across colonial Indian districts in 1901 with a gravity model, we find origin and destination districts separated by more dissimilar languages saw less migration. We control for the physical distance between origin-destination pairs, several measures of dissimilarity in geographic characteristics, as well as origin and destination fixed effects. The results are robust to a regression discontinuity design that exploits spatial boundaries across language groups. We also find linguistic differences predict lower migration in 2001. Cultural channels are a small part of the link from linguistic diversity to lower migration. Rather, the evidence suggests communication and information channels are more important. |
| Keywords: | Migration ; Linguistic Diversity ; India JEL Codes: N35 ; O15 ; Z13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1580 |
| By: | Gregory Clark (University of Southern Denmark) |
| Abstract: | A recent article in PNAS “The Inheritance of Social Status in England, 1600-1822” (Clark, 2023) argued that social status in England throughout these years showed a strong and stable pattern of inheritance. This pattern was consistent with the additive genetic inheritance of social abilities, in the presence of strong genetic assortment in these characteristics in parenting. This article has induced criticism that it committed “Hereditarian Fallacies” (Benning et al., 2023, 2024, 2025). Similar criticism also appeared in blog postings by the geneticist Sasha Gusev, and in Lala and Feldman, 2024, and Lala et al., 2025. This paper offers additional evidence for why patterns of status inheritance in England 1600-2022 are consistent with direct genetic inheritance, but not with cultural transmission of status. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational mobility, status inheritance, cultural transmission |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0285 |
| By: | Peter B. Dixon; Maureen T. Rimmer |
| Abstract: | Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling started with the publication in 1960 of Johansen's model of Norway. It continues to the present time as an active research and policy field. In a recent count, there were 33, 000 people in the GTAP CGE modelling network alone. This paper identifies GEMPACK software, developed in Australia for solving large scale CGE models in the Johansen school, as one of the factors contributing to the enduring popularity of CGE. The paper tells the story of how GEMPACK came into existence, how it works, and how it relates to Johansen. The paper was prepared for a workshop on bridging the gap between CGE and New Quantitative Trade (NQT) models. In illustrating GEMPACK and showing connections between CGE and NQT, we present a GEMPACK solution and analysis of Eaton and Kortum's seminal NQT model, published in Econometrica in 2002. |
| Keywords: | GEMPACK CGE software, GEMPACK and GAMS, New Quantitative trade modelling, Eaton and Kortum |
| JEL: | C68 F11 F13 C63 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-357 |
| By: | Badalyan, Sona (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; CERGE-EI) |
| Abstract: | "This paper exploits a unique norm-shifting setting - a German pension reform that equalized retirement ages across genders - to examine how old-age employment propagates through workplace networks. The reform raised women’s earliest claiming age from 60 to 63 for cohorts born in 1952 onward. Using the universe of workgroups from social security records, I compare women whose peers were just above or below the reform cutoff. I find that women are more likely to remain employed at older ages when their peers do, with stronger effects in the regions of former West Germany, with its traditional gender norms. Gender-neutral pension reforms thus amplify their impact through peer influence, fostering regional convergence in late-career employment patterns." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation |
| JEL: | D85 H55 J14 J16 J22 J26 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–10–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202513 |
| By: | Vellore Arthi; Gary Richardson; Mark Van Orden |
| Abstract: | From 1900 to 1940, ordinary working- and middle-class families saved for retirement and contingencies via ordinary life insurance policies. These policies combined insurance and savings in a single financial instrument that paid its face value to insured individuals who survived until maturity and to beneficiaries if the insured died before the maturity date. The popularity of these policies peaked before WWII when a substantial share of all households and most of the middle class invested in them. This paper explains why these policies were the most popular savings vehicle of their day. Ordinary life policies were well suited to the early twentieth-century economic environment. They had good returns; low risks; tax advantages; and little correlation with returns of competing investments, like bank deposits, building and loan shares, postal savings deposits, real estate, or stocks. The policies protected households from poverty in old age, from the premature death of their breadwinner, and from other risks including disability and deflation. Understanding how households saved in the past has implications for a wide range of literatures in the social sciences. |
| JEL: | G22 G51 G52 J26 J32 N21 N22 N31 N32 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34385 |
| By: | Mariano Arana (Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política (IIEP). Centro de Estudios de Historia Económica Argentina y Latinoamericana. Buenos Aires, Argentina.) |
| Abstract: | La investigación examina los orígenes y primeras dos décadas de la AAEP, su evolución organizacional y perfil teórico‑político, aportando una reinterpretación histórica a partir de nuevas fuentes. |
| Keywords: | Asociación Argentina de Economía Política; Historia del pensamiento económico; Economía argentina |
| JEL: | A11 A14 B20 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ake:iiepdt:2025-99 |
| By: | Huben Liu; Dimitris Papanikolaou; Lawrence D.W. Schmidt; Bryan Seegmiller |
| Abstract: | We use recent advances in natural language processing and large language models to construct novel measures of technology exposure for workers that span almost two centuries. Combining our measures with Census data on occupation employment, we show that technological progress over the 20th century has led to economically meaningful shifts in labor demand across occupations: it has consistently increased demand for occupations with higher education requirements, occupations that pay higher wages, and occupations with a greater fraction of female workers. Using these insights and a calibrated model, we then explore different scenarios for how advances in artificial intelligence (AI) are likely to impact employment trends in the medium run. The model predicts a reversal of past trends, with AI favoring occupations that are lower-educated, lower-paid, and more male-dominated. |
| JEL: | J23 J24 N3 O3 O4 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34386 |
| By: | Cianchella, Maurizio |
| Abstract: | The international drug control regime emerged from a complex interplay of economic, political, social, and medical forces. This study critically compares the formal objectives proclaimed in treaties, conventions, action plans, and national legislations with the less transparent — and often less defensible — goals revealed by a broader range of sources, as well as with the disappointing results achieved by the existing system. As global scrutiny of the prohibitionist model intensifies, understanding the drivers behind the evolution of drug policies is crucial to ensure that future reforms prioritize human rights and public well-being over corporate interests and market opportunities. |
| Date: | 2025–10–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ft68u_v1 |
| By: | Arenas-Arroyo, Esther (Vienna University of Economics and Business) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of the home sewing machine on women’s work and intergenerational mobility—an innovation that enabled women to generate income from within the household. Marketed directly to women as a tool for both domestic use and paid work, it provides a unique setting to examine how household technologies reshaped labor markets and intergenerational outcomes. Exploiting the expansion of sewing machine sales agents, which generated geographic and temporal variation in access, I show that access to sewing machines increased demand for dressmakers, raised women’s employment in this occupation, and reduced reliance on child labor. In the long run, children exposed in early life attained higher literacy, formed smaller families, and experienced greater intergenerational mobility. These findings highlight the household as a crucial site of technological change, showing how domestic innovations could expand women’s opportunities and generate lasting gains across generations. |
| Keywords: | child labor, home production, women’s work, children |
| JEL: | J16 N31 J22 J24 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18197 |
| By: | L. Randall Wray; Eric Lin |
| Abstract: | This paper looks at the relationship between government budget deficits and the growth rate of GDP. While orthodox economic theory offers several reasons to believe that growing deficits might be associated with slower growth, and would ultimately be unsustainable, Keynesians assert that deficits could stimulate growth--at least in the short run--implying the relation between deficits and growth could be positive. Modern Money Theory, adopting Godley's sectoral balance approach, Lerner's functional finance approach, and Minsky's theory of financial instability takes a more nuanced approach. Historical data for a number of countries is presented, showing that there is no obvious relation between the deficit ratio and economic growth over long time periods. However, there is a predictable path of the relationship over the course of the business cycle for all countries examined. |
| Keywords: | government budget deficit; deficit ratio; GDP growth rate; MMT; sectoral balance; functional finance; Wray curve; automatic stabilizer; Godley; Lerner |
| JEL: | F30 N10 N14 P16 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1055 |
| By: | Joaquín Waldman (CONICET–Centro de Estudios de Estado y Sociedad (CEDES); CONICET–Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política (IIEP); Universidad de Alcalá. Instituto Universitario de Investigación en Estudios Latinoamericanos (IELAT).) |
| Abstract: | Using Palazzo et al. (2023)’s episodic database of stabilization attempts, the paper estimates ordered probit models to identify initial conditions that increase the probability of lasting disinflations in Latin America. |
| Keywords: | Inflation; Stabilization programs; Latin America |
| JEL: | E31 E63 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ake:iiepdt:2024-94 |
| By: | Jesus Felipe; John McCombie |
| Abstract: | This paper offers a retrospective view of the key pillar of Solow's neoclassical growth model, namely the aggregate production function. We review how this tool came to life and how it has survived until today, despite three criticisms that undermined its raison d'etre. They are the Cambridge Capital Theory Controversies, the Aggregation Problem, and the Accounting Identity. These criticisms were forgotten by the profession, not because they were wrong but because of the key role played by Robert Solow in the field. Today, these criticisms are not even mentioned when students are introduced to (neoclassical) growth theory, which is presented in most economics departments and macroeconomics textbooks as the only theory worth studying. |
| Keywords: | Accounting Identity; Aggregation Problem; Cambridge Capital Theory Controversies; Solow |
| JEL: | B22 B31 B32 B41 E13 E25 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1046 |
| By: | Márcia Siqueira Rapini (Cedeplar/UFMG); Eduardo da Motta e Albuquerque (Cedeplar/UFMG) |
| Abstract: | This article systematizes the arrival in Mozambique of innovations related to the technological revolutions. Mozambique's specificities are investigated in four sections. The first presents a theoretical framework. The second section systematizes the arrival of new technologies related to the five Big Bangs in Mozambique. The third section focuses on the relationship between changes in the country's political organization as steps toward the evolution of absorptive capacity. The fourth section addresses new possibilities for assimilating technologies opened up by the leap in absorptive capacity resulting from political changes—independence in 1975, the end of the civil war in 1992, and the end of apartheid in South Africa in 1994. The conclusion explores implications for public policy. |
| Keywords: | technological revolutions, periphery, absorptive capability, Mozambique. |
| JEL: | B29 O30 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdp:texdis:td685 |
| By: | Custers, Gijs |
| Abstract: | The role of media in producing territorial stigma is a central concern for urban researchers. This study investigates how one of the most stigmatised areas in the Netherlands, the Bijlmer, has been portrayed in newspaper media over a period of 35 years, and how this portrayal relates to structural changes in the district. The concepts of core and event stigma are employed to understand the temporal dimensions of stigma production. The corpus includes 22, 934 articles from the five largest Dutch newspapers that referenced the Bijlmer since 1990. Hierarchical topic modelling and sentiment analysis are used to detect topical representations of the Bijlmer. The findings indicate that in the 1990s two news peaks regarding the Bijlmer crash have been important in raising its (inter)national status, whereas the Bijlmer has also suffered from core stigmatisation on various crime and social issues. In addition, the findings suggest an intricate relation between structural changes in the Bijlmer and media attention. This study contributes to the literature by demonstrating the relevance of core and event stigma, employing novel techniques in research on territorial stigma, and investigating the relation between structural neighbourhood conditions and media representation. |
| Date: | 2025–10–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:2dnmh_v1 |
| By: | SALGUERO, RICARDO ALONZO FERNANDEZ |
| Abstract: | El Consenso de Washington ha sido uno de los paradigmas de política económica más influyentes y controvertidos de finales del siglo XX. Concebido como un decálogo de reformas orientadas al mercado, su implementación generó un vasto cuerpo de literatura que evalúa sus impactos. Esta revisión narrativa cualitativa sintetiza la evidencia de 53 estudios académicos para ofrecer una visión panorámica de su legado. Se exploran sus orígenes y evolución, la evidencia empírica que lo asocia con mejoras en el crecimiento, y las críticas que lo vinculan con el aumento de la desigualdad y las crisis económicas. Finalmente, se analiza el surgimiento de narrativas post-consenso, argumentando que esta evolución, más que una ruptura, representa una adaptación estratégica del neoliberalismo. Los hallazgos revelan que, si bien la era de las soluciones universales ha terminado, el paradigma post-consenso a menudo recicla principios fundamentales bajo un nuevo lenguaje de inclusión y especificidad contextual, planteando nuevos desafíos para la búsqueda de alternativas de desarrollo genuinas. |
| Date: | 2025–10–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:krshu_v1 |
| By: | Mangave, Darshan |
| Abstract: | This paper observes at Adam Smith’s idea of the “invisible hand” and ask how it works in today’s world of algorithms and digital platforms. In the Wealth of Nations, Smith explained that when people act in their self-interest then markets balance themselves and society benefits. But now, in this century many economic choices are not made only by people. They are guided by algorithms. For examples, this can be seen in Amazon’s product rankings, Uber’s surge pricing, Google’s search results, Netflix’s recommendations, and AI trading in stock markets. These algorithmic systems connect buyers and sellers quickly, but they also create new problems like reduced competition, unfair pricing, manipulation of consumer choices, and market instability. The paper argues that the invisible hand has not disappeared, but it now takes the form of an “algorithmic hand.” For this hand to truly serve society, there must be careful attention to ethics and policy. |
| Keywords: | Adam Smith, Invisible Hand, Wealth of Nations, Algorithms, Digital Economy, Market Competition, Consumer Behaviour, Algorithmic Pricing, Platform Capitalism, Economic Policy. |
| JEL: | B12 D47 K23 L17 L86 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–09–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126154 |
| By: | Gabriel Galvez-Behar (IRHiS - Institut de Recherches Historiques du Septentrion (IRHiS) - UMR 8529 - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Cette contribution revient sur l'une des figures de l'histoire de la conception, désignée par des expressions diverses : « l'inventeur indépendant », « l'inventeur entrepreneur » ou « l'inventeur autonome ». Se concentrant sur le moment particulier de l'essor de la grande entreprise et d'« industriation du travail de l'esprit » au tournant des XIXe et XXe siècles, elle s'interroge sur la résistance dans le temps de cette figure alors même que l'activité inventive devient incorporée dans la grande entreprise ou dans l'organisation de grande taille. |
| Keywords: | invention, inventor |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04701477 |
| By: | Raul A. Carrillo |
| Abstract: | Scholars and affiliates of the Levy Economics Institute have long demonstrated a granular understanding of the "operations" of money, which entails understanding the financial system's law and technology (Grey 2019, Tymoigne 2014, Fullwiler 2010, Bell and Wray 2002-3, Bell 2000). During the dot-com bubble, many Levy-affiliated economists underscored the relationship between government fiscal surpluses and unsustainable private debt (Godley and Wray 1999). Recently, scholars have written about the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (Grey 2023; Tankus 2023) and resurgent speculation in the tech sector (Veneroso and Pasquali 2021). These are but a few examples. Here, I present some brief thoughts on money as a technology--money itself. I argue there is value in thinking of money not only as a legal institution, political, economic, or social relation but as technology. The exercise sharpens our vision of the future of money even as we continue to believe in radical uncertainty. I address a few points in this essay. First, I make the case for money as technology. I then survey three applications: 1) the trajectory of state money as a technology of public finance and its relationship to the suppression of indigenous and non-state monies, 2) the regulation of money-like liabilities issued by technology companies, which operate according to the accumulative logic of Silicon Valley rather than Wall Street, and 3) money's future as a technology of surveillance, discipline, and punishment. Finally, I call for scholarship to inform a vision of money as a more democratic technology (per the mission of the Economic Democracy Initiative and Levy Economics Institute). |
| Keywords: | Money; Technology; Neochartalism; Privacy; Surveillance; De-monetization |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1070 |