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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | Nobel Prize Committee (Nobel Prize Committee) |
| Abstract: | On a daily basis, we are reminded of how fast technology progresses and how it changes the world around us. New discoveries and new innovations affect our lives directly and they also fundamentally affect the economy. Technological change is of course not a new phenomenon. Progress and innovations have occurred since ancient times. What is relatively recent, however, viewed against the entire history of hu- mankind, is the type of innovation-driven economic growth enjoyed by the advanced countries of the world during the last two centuries, and how such high growth rates are sustained. |
| Keywords: | technological innovation; economic growth |
| JEL: | O |
| Date: | 2025–10–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nobelp:021675 |
| By: | Marvin Suesse (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin); Morten Jerven (Norwegian University of Life Sciences) |
| Abstract: | An influential strand of literature within economics and economic history called ‘persistence studies’ argues that low material living standards in African countries today were determined by institutional choices made in the past. However, the lack of consistent annual data on GDP per capita or institutional variables has meant that this literature has been largely silent as to whether their proposed relationships hold throughout the period it studies. This has made persistence studies vulnerable to criticisms of making leaps of faith or contributing to a ‘compression of history’. Here, we draw on a data set of tax revenues for African polities for the period 1900-2015, with which we proxy the institutional capacity of a state. We then test whether some of the most influential determinants stressed in the persistence literature exert a consistent effect on our measure of institutions. Our findings suggest that the effect of population density and colonizer identity on institutions is not persistent. We find mixed results for precolonial centralization and ethnic fractionalization, while results for slave exports and settler mortality are more in accordance with theory. Overall, our results support the view that historical persistence should be measured, not simply assumed. |
| Keywords: | Persistence; Institutions; Africa; Settler mortality; Slave trades; Fiscal capacity |
| JEL: | O11 O55 N17 H30 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep1225 |
| By: | Stein Berre; Asani Sarkar |
| Abstract: | The term “exorbitant privilege” emerged in the 1960s to describe the advantages derived by the U.S. economy from the dollar’s status as the de facto global reserve currency. In this post, we examine the exorbitant privilege that accrued to the Netherlands in the eighteenth century, when the Dutch guilder enjoyed global reserve currency status. We show how the private actions of financial institutions created and maintained this privilege, even in the absence of a central bank. While privilege benefited the Dutch financial system in many ways, it also laid the seeds of later financial crisis. |
| Keywords: | exorbitant privilege; reserve currency; Netherlands; eighteenth century |
| JEL: | N13 N23 |
| Date: | 2025–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:101924 |
| By: | Patrick Aubert (IPP - Institut des politiques publiques) |
| Abstract: | The reforms that have been implemented in France since the 1970s have greatly increased the options for retiring early with a full‑rate pension, the idea being that this would benefit those individuals presumed to have the shortest life expectancies. These options were initially aimed at individuals who had been declared unfit for work, but they are now largely based on having worked a full career, with this criterion intended to benefit persons who started working at a younger age, who are presumed to be in poorer health. However, although the life expectancy at 60 years of age of this latter group is indeed lower, this trend is only observed for those who started their careers before the age of 20 for men and 18 for women. In practice, no positive relationship can be observed between life expectancy at 60 years of age and the age at which a person is entitled to retire with a full‑rate pension. Among women, the relationship even appears to be negative. |
| Abstract: | Les réformes mises en œuvre depuis les années 1970 ont fortement étendu les possibilités de partir à la retraite au taux plein de façon anticipée, avec l'idée que cela béné‑ ficierait aux assurés dont l'espérance de vie était supposée la plus courte. Ces possibilités concernaient initialement les assurés reconnus inaptes au travail, mais elles s'appuient mainte‑ nant principalement sur le fait d'avoir eu une carrière complète, ce critère visant à avantager les personnes ayant commencé à travailler plus jeunes, supposées en moins bonne santé. Toutefois, si l'espérance de vie à 60 ans de ces dernières s'avère effectivement plus basse, cette relation ne s'observe que pour les débuts de carrière avant 20 ans pour les hommes et avant 18 ans pour les femmes. En pratique, on n'observe pas de relation croissante entre l'espérance de vie à 60 ans et l'âge auquel le système de retraite permet de partir à la retraite à taux plein. Parmi les femmes, la relation semble même décroissante. |
| Keywords: | length of career, life expectancy, retirement age, early retirement, pension reform, Espérance de vie, durée de carrière, âge de départ, retraite anticipée, réforme des retraites |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ipppap:hal-05302171 |
| By: | Michela Ponzo (Department of Economics, Statistics and Finance 'Giovanni Anania', University of Calabria, Rende (Italy)); Vincenzo Scoppa (Department of Economics, Statistics and Finance 'Giovanni Anania', University of Calabria, Rende (Italy)); Idola Francesca Spanò (Department of Economics, Statistics and Finance 'Giovanni Anania', University of Calabria, Rende (Italy)) |
| Abstract: | Films are often adaptations of novels. Using weekly bestseller list data spanning 50 years (1975–2024) and leveraging the panel structure of the data at the book-week level, we implement an Event Study Design to evaluate the impact of a film’s release on a book’s probability of entering the bestseller list after the release. After controlling for book’s and author’s characteristics, as well as time fixed effects, we find that film releases have an initial positive impact on book sales, followed by a later negative effect. Specifically, immediately after a film’s release, the probability of a book appearing on the bestseller list increases by approximately 15 percentage points. This effect is likely driven by heightened media attention and a coordination mechanism among readers. However, despite the short-term positive impact, a negative effect emerges around six months after the release, potentially because films serve as substitutes, leading some consumers to watch the film instead of reading the book. |
| Keywords: | Book Sales, Limited Attention, Salience, Event Study Design, Cultural Economics, Behavioral Economics |
| JEL: | D12 D91 M30 Z11 L82 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:clb:wpaper:202501 |
| By: | Zhanar Konys |
| Abstract: | Gender inequality remains a persistent global challenge despite decades of progress and its recognition as a key UN Sustainable Development Goal. Disparities between men and women persist in education, health, employment, politics, and autonomy, rooted in institutions, cultural norms, and historical legacies. This PhD thesis contributes to understanding these inequalities through three essays that analyze economic, cultural, and institutional determinants of women’s status in both Western and Central Asian contexts. The first chapter investigates the marriage penalty in the United Kingdom using panel data and a stacked difference-in-differences approach. It shows that marriage itself, even before motherhood, reduces women’s earnings and labor market participation. The second chapter examines son preference in Kyrgyzstan, drawing on historical and contemporary data. It documents persistent and even rising son preference through fertility behaviors such as instrumental birth and sex-selective abortion. The third chapter focuses on bride kidnapping in Kyrgyzstan, a practice affecting one-third of marriages. Using Life in Kyrgyzstan survey data, it shifts attention to grooms as agents of abduction, highlighting the intergenerational transmission of it and showing that education reduces bride kidnapping. Together, the chapters reveal how marriage, son preference, and bride kidnapping operate as mechanisms that restrict women’s agency and reinforce patriarchal structures. By linking economic penalties, cultural norms, and coercive practices, the thesis underscores that achieving gender equality requires not only legal reforms and policy measures but also shifts in social attitudes and institutional arrangements. |
| Keywords: | Gender pay gap; Son preference; Bride kidnapping |
| Date: | 2025–10–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/394717 |
| By: | Michael D. Bordo; Oliver Bush; Ryland Thomas |
| Abstract: | This narrative paper provides a detailed account of the Great Inflation in the United Kingdom from 1961 to 1997, serving as a companion to the analytical account of fiscal policy presented in Bordo, Bush, and Thomas (2025). We discuss the background fundamentals in place at the outset of the Great Inflation and document the distinct phases of inflation, the unique features of the UK’s experience relative to other advanced economies, and the interplay between fiscal, monetary, and incomes policies. By placing the UK’s inflationary episodes within their institutional and historical context, this paper offers a qualitative perspective that complements the quantitative analysis of the main paper and informs ongoing debates about the causes and consequences of persistent inflation. |
| JEL: | N10 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34363 |
| By: | William Bergman (Loyola University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the Federal Reserve's current financial losses—unprecedented in scale—and the questionable accounting practices it uses to downplay their impact. It argues that the Fed's self-defined accounting standards, particularly the creation of a "deferred asset" to mask negative equity, obscure the fiscal consequences for the U.S. government and taxpayers. The analysis connects today's losses to longstanding institutional practices, notably the Fed's flawed cost-recovery accounting for its Fedwire payment system. These issues first emerged in the late 1990s and early 2000s, when the author, then a Fed staffer, challenged the internal logic used to claim that Fedwire guaranteed payments and still avoided subsidies. The paper includes as an appendix the original 2002 draft, "Fedwire: A Subsidy That Fully Recovers Its Cost?", which helped reveal the moral hazard and accounting inconsistencies that contributed to the 2008 crisis and continue to shape central bank risk and governance today. |
| Keywords: | Federal Reserve, Central bank accounting, Fedwire, daylight overdrafts, Payment systems, financial crisis, monetary policy, financial regulation |
| JEL: | E0 E58 E42 G28 H83 L50 |
| Date: | 2024–07–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:thk:wpaper:inetwp237 |
| By: | Davide Cipullo; Luca V.A. Colombo; Michele Magnani; Massimiliano Gaetano Onorato |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a novel methodology to identify the geographic market of local newspapers when information on their diffusion is not available or is not sufficiently granular. We illustrate the methodology using historical data from 154 newly digitized newspapers published in Italy between 1919 and 1922. Combining machine learning-augmented optical character recognition techniques, multi-way fixed-effect regressions, and GIS tools, our approach allows us to estimate markets based on news content. Text-based location of newspaper markets considerably improves over assuming that market boundaries coincide with administrative aggregations. We discuss how our technique strengthens the usage of newspapers as a granular and time-varying source of historical information and offers new avenues for identification strategies. |
| Keywords: | newspaper markets, media coverage, text analysis, inter-war Italy |
| JEL: | C18 C81 N01 N94 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12194 |
| By: | Schmucker, Alexandra (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Vom Berge, Philipp (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "This data report describes the Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies (SIAB) 1975 - 2023." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Stichprobe der Integrierten Arbeitsmarktbiografien ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Datenaufbereitung ; Datendokumentation ; Datengewinnung ; Datenqualität ; Datenzugang ; IAB-Beschäftigtenhistorik ; IAB-Leistungsempfängerhistorik ; Stichprobenverfahren ; 10.5164/IAB.SIAB7523.de.en.v2 ; 1975-2023 |
| Date: | 2025–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfda:2025v202(en) |
| By: | Abajian, Alexander C.; Xu, Cong; Yu, Shuo |
| Abstract: | Bartels, Jäger and Obergruber (2024) examine how division rules for the inheritance of agricultural land affected distributional outcomes in 19th century and contemporary Germany. The authors use a regression discontinuity design to show that equal-division counties-those in which inheritance of property and land were split equally among heirs-had significantly lower concentration of land holdings in historical Germany and that these areas have higher incomes and wealth today relative to neighboring counterparts that operated under rules where no division of inheritance took place. We computationally reproduce all results present in their manuscript using the replication package the authors provide. While we uncover one minor coding error that affects their calculations of HAC standard errors, it has no effect on the study's results. We also provide two additional tests of the authors identifying assumption: a standard test of continuity of the density of the running variable as well as falsification tests which alter which units are assigned treatment. Both tests support the authors' identifying assumptions. |
| Keywords: | Replication, Reproducibility |
| JEL: | D3 N33 O1 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:269 |
| By: | Dani Rodrik |
| Abstract: | Economics students today learn about mercantilism through Smith’s prism, as a series of logical and policy errors that Smith clarified and settled for good. But far from settled doctrine, mercantilism encapsulated a variety of pragmatic practices that survived Smith’s critique, often to good effect. It found echo in a continuous tradition of what later came to be called “developmentalism, ” running from Alexander Hamilton and Friedrich List’s advocacy of trade protection to Hans Singer and Raul Prebisch’s ideas on import-substitution and, more recently, to East Asian models of export-oriented industrialization. Three of its core tenets hold continued appeal: the primacy of production and jobs (and of their composition) over consumption; preference for close, collaborative relationship between business and government over an arms’ length relationship; and the need for contextual, pragmatic, and often unorthodox policies over universal remedies and “best-practices.” |
| JEL: | B1 F1 O10 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34353 |
| By: | Leander Heldring |
| Abstract: | This chapter reviews the origins, evolution, and modern forms of government, and proposes a research agenda. It contends that rather than being a homogeneous form of patrimonialism, early government was diverse and, at times, fostered order and prosperity. Its subsequent development did not follow an ‘evolutionary’ path to rational-legal government but was characterized by innovation and frequent collapse. Successful modern states do not all look alike, but follow several different models, as historical states have done. |
| JEL: | D74 H10 N20 N40 O43 P16 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34370 |
| By: | Beinhocker, Eric; Bednar, Jenna |
| Abstract: | Since the first volume in this series (Anderson, Arrow & Pines, 1987), a variety of scholars have claimed that complexity economics presents a fundamentally different and more scientifically grounded way of explaining and modelling the economy than more traditional perspectives. Looking back at over thirty-five years of development in the field, this essay argues that complexity economics is not merely an alternative and advantageous set of methods for understanding the economy but could play a critical role in the construction of a new economic paradigm. Complexity economics is part of a broader interlocking set of ideas—an "ontological stack"—that has the potential to supplant the dominant economic paradigms of the twentieth century. The development of such a paradigm would have major implications for economic policy and politics. The essay concludes with a discussion of what can be done to advance the complexity economics agenda and how such a paradigm might be developed. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amz:wpaper:2025-20 |
| By: | José J. Bercoff (Universidad Nacional de Tucumán); Esteban Nicolini (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid/Universidad Nacional de Tucumán) |
| Abstract: | An ecological analysis of the general election in Argentina in 1946 suggests that the votes for Perón were higher in districts with high levels of social and economic development (relatively larger proportions literates and industrial employees and relatively higher wages), more affected by electoral fraud and with a smaller specialization in export-oriented activities. The ecological inference analysis strongly suggest that this characterization of districts is also a good characterization of the groups supporting Peron in the election: literates (rather than illiterates), industrial employees (rather than the rest of the population), urban dwellers (rather than rural dwellers) and migrants (rather than natives) had significantly higher probability of voting Perón. The support for Perón originated in a variety of motivations from different social groups that reacted against the traditional political model. |
| Keywords: | Economic voting; Perón presidential election; Ecological Inference |
| JEL: | N46 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:374 |
| By: | Mitja Kovac; Rok Spruk |
| Abstract: | This paper provides the first causal evidence on the long-run economic dividends of Arab-Israeli peace treaties. Using synthetic control and difference-in-synthetic control estimators, we analyze 1978 Camp David Accords and 1994 peace treaty between Jordan and Israel. Both cases reveal large and lasting gains. By 2011, real GDP of Egypt exceeded its synthetic counterfactual by 64 percent, and per capita income by 82 percent. Jordanian trajectory shows similarly permanent improvements, with real GDP higher by 75 percent and per capita income by more than 20 percent. The mechanisms differ: in Egypt, gains stem from a sharp fiscal reallocation together with higher foreign direct investment and improved institutional credibility, while Jordan benefited primarily through enhanced trade and financial inflows. Robustness and placebo tests confirm the uniqueness of these effects. The results demonstrate that peace agreements yield large, durable, and heterogeneous growth dividends. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.14517 |
| By: | Philippe Andrade; Michael Wicklein |
| Abstract: | How much of the most recent surge in inflation expectations, which began in March 2025, has been the result of the usual effect of abnormal price movements? How much is left unexplained and may signal a potential de-anchoring of inflation expectations? How do the most recent and the pandemic-era surges in expectations compare with the two surges in the Great Inflation episode of the 1970s? This brief addresses those questions using data on inflation expectations from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers and a simple regression model in which households form their inflation expectations based on their perception of movements in food and gas prices as well as broad-based inflation. |
| Keywords: | inflation expectations; inflation; de-anchoring; 1970s inflation; household surveys |
| JEL: | D83 E31 |
| Date: | 2025–10–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbcq:101908 |
| By: | Alberto Russo (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Università Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona, Italy and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain) |
| Abstract: | Drawing on Peter Turchin’s structural-demographic theory, this paper provides a preliminary examination of how rising inequality and financial liberalization contribute to political instability through the interplay of mass immiseration and elite overproduction. We capture these dynamics through a simplified agent-based macroeconomic model, introducing two structural shocks – growing inequality and financial liberalization – that reflect the transformations reshaping advanced economies in recent decades, a process intertwined with political disintegration. A wealth tax on the richest households can reduce political fragmentation and improve economic performance, but lasting resilience will require embedding such measures within a broader rethinking of the policy paradigm that has prevailed since the 1980s. |
| Keywords: | growing inequality; financial liberalization; political instability; agent-based model |
| JEL: | C63 D31 E02 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jau:wpaper:2025/07 |
| By: | Andrew Foerster; Andreas Hornstein; Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte; Mark W. Watson |
| Abstract: | We explore the evolving significance of different production sectors within the U.S. economy since World War II and provide methods for estimating and forecasting these shifts. Using a compositional accounting approach, we find that the well-documented transition from goods to services is primarily driven by two compositional changes: 1) the rise of Intellectual Property Products (IPP) as an input producer, replacing Durable Goods almost one-for-one in terms of input shares in virtually all sectors; and 2) a shift in consumer spending from Nondurable Goods to Services. A structural model replicating these shifts reveals that the rise of IPP at the expense of Durable Goods is largely explained by increases in the efficiency of IPP inputs used in production: input-biased technical change. Trend variations in sectoral total factor productivity, and their attendant effects on relative prices and income, are the main driver of evolving consumption patterns. Both reduced-form and structural forecasts project these trends to continue over the next two decades, albeit at lower rates, indicating a slower pace of structural change. |
| Keywords: | production and investment |
| JEL: | E17 E23 E27 |
| Date: | 2025–10–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedrwp:101929 |
| By: | Taejin Park; Fernando Perez-Cruz; Hyun Song Shin |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the landscape of economic ideas as revealed in the machine learning embedding of a comprehensive dataset of central bank speeches. This dataset, maintained by the BIS, encompasses 19, 742 speeches delivered by almost 1, 000 officials from over 100 central banks over a period spanning three decades, from 1997 to 2025. As well as topic analysis of speeches at any moment in time, the evolution of the topics over time provides insights into how the focus of central bank thinking has been shaped by shifting policy challenges since 1997. Parsing the embedding both through topics and through time provides rich insights into how economic ideas have taken shape through communication practices of central banks worldwide. To demonstrate its utility, we have conducted a series of analyses that map the global landscape of monetary policy discourse. Furthermore, we construct a quantitative framework-referred to as the "space of central bankers' ideas"-which uncovers institutional patterns and highlights shifts in policy approaches over time. |
| Keywords: | central bank communication, central bank speeches, AI, topic modeling, embeddings |
| JEL: | E52 E58 C55 C38 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1299 |
| By: | Jan Toporowski (International University College) |
| Abstract: | This paper commemorates the 70th anniversary of Kalecki's seminal lecture in Mexico on financing economic development. The first part of this paper outlines the theoretical model underlying Kalecki's view of development financing. A second part of the paper summarizes the foundations of structuralist development economics in the Prebisch-Singer approach to international trade and import-substitution development strategies. A third part of the paper examines the confrontation between Kalecki’s view of economic development strategy, and the structuralist approach, in the case of Cuba, highlighting the differences between the two approaches. A fourth part concludes with some reflections on the relevance today of structuralism and Kalecki's view of economic development. |
| Keywords: | Kalecki, structuralist economics, economic development, development finance, land reform, import substitution, Prebisch-Singer. |
| JEL: | B24 B31 F54 O11 O19 |
| Date: | 2025–06–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:thk:wpaper:inetwp234 |
| By: | Thomas Ferguson (University of Massachusetts, Boston) |
| Abstract: | Narratives in American history, politics, and economics — even those by the most accomplished researchers — often resemble donuts: at their core lies a hole that no amount of sweet speculation can truly fill. They say almost nothing about the financing behind even the most pivotal American political campaigns and elections. Both history and the social sciences suffer greatly when facts are missing and wild guesses take their place. INET's new data archive of historical political finance records at the National Archives marks a major step toward filling this factual void. It assembles all campaign finance reports filed by political parties and presidential candidates up to 1974, the year before the Federal Election Commission was established. A few additional files, including one from the FEC for 1976, are also included, as detailed below. This INET Working Paper outlines what users need to know to navigate the archive effectively and locate the data they require. The files themselves can be found here. |
| Keywords: | political finance, elections, regulation, state and business |
| JEL: | D72 K20 L13 L14 L38 L51 N12 N42 P14 |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:thk:wpaper:inetwp242 |
| By: | Naoki Odanaka |
| Abstract: | This paper intends to make clear the current state of the three concepts of science, that is to say, “science for science, †“science for society, †and “science for policy, †to examine the relation among them and to present the social backgrounds of each concept. Given that the Science Council of Japan (SCJ), Japan’s national academy, faces its most significant institutional reform since its establishment in 1949 (hereinafter the 2026 institutional reform), we will use SCJ as a case. This reform offers a compelling case study for considering the role that “science†should play in a state once considered developed but now said to be in decline. We will tackle the aforementioned tasks by outlining the historical and social background and specific details of SCJ’s 2026 institutional reform and by pointing out its problems. |
| Date: | 2025–10–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:toh:tergaa:496 |
| By: | Ferlenga, Francesco (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona School of Economics, Barcelona Institute of Economics, Spain. CAGE (University of Warwick), UK) |
| Abstract: | Dominant groups worldwide have historically asserted power by constructing in public spaces monuments that glorify their narrative, vis-Ã -vis their opponents'. How do divisive public symbols affect the location choices of those who oppose them? I investigate this historically and today, focusing on Confederate monuments in the US South - erected by southern whites in the early 20th century and opposed by Black Americans due to their connection to slavery. Historically, I show that southern counties with monuments saw a sharp decline in the Black share of the population - driven by out-migration - following their construction. However, monuments themselves are outcomes of underlying ideological shifts, making causal claims problematic. I thus construct an instrument for the stock of Confederate monuments based on transportation costs to a quasi-monopolist producer and the years in which it was in business. The IV analysis confirms that monuments caused a substantial reduction of the Black share of the population. I complement the historical analysis with an online experiment to assess whether monuments still influence migration choices today. I randomize Confederate monuments in the visual depiction of hypothetical destination cities and ask respondents to consider job offers there. Black respondents request higher reservation wages and are significantly less likely to accept offers. |
| Keywords: | JEL Classification: |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:776 |
| By: | Fazio, Andrea; Reggiani, Tommaso; Santori, Paolo |
| Abstract: | This paper experimentally examines Max Weber's thesis on the influence of religious narratives - particularly the Protestant Ethic - on attitudes toward wealth redistribution. Weber argued that the Protestant Reformation fostered the belief that economic success signals divine favour, thereby legitimising wealth inequality. We test this idea using a variation of the dictator game, leveraging a religious narrative that casts the dictator's role - and the endowment of wealth - as a divine blessing. By exogenously evoking the blessingof- wealth narrative to different religious groups, we then examine how subjects' redistribution behaviour is affected. Our findings reveal that low-income Protestants exposed to the blessing narrative are significantly less inclined to redistribute wealth than their Catholic counterparts, consistent with Weber's claim that Protestantism can serve to rationalise inequality through the lens of divine providence. A complementary narrative analysis further reveals that Protestants, Calvinists, Methodists, and Atheists tend to interpret blessings as a sign of divine election that is contingent upon wealth. In contrast, Catholics more often associate them with spiritual meanings alone. These results underscore the decisive role of religious narratives in shaping economic preferences, providing empirical support for Weber's enduring thesis. |
| Keywords: | experimental economics, Max Weber, religious narratives, pro-social behaviour, redistribution |
| JEL: | J14 J15 Z12 Z1 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1505r |
| By: | Treb Allen; Winston Chen; Suresh Naidu |
| Abstract: | What would the antebellum American economy have looked like without slavery? Using new micro-data on the U.S. economy in 1860, we document that where free and enslaved workers live and how much they earn correlates strongly—but differently—with geographic proxies for agricultural productivity, disease, and ease of slave escape. To explain these patterns, we build a quantitative spatial model of slavery, where slaveholders coerce enslaved workers into supplying more labor, capture the proceeds of their labor, and assign them to sectors and occupations that maximize owner profits rather than worker welfare. Combining theory and data, we then quantify how dismantling the institution of slavery affected the spatial economy. We find that the economic impacts of emancipation are substantial, generating welfare gains for the enslaved of roughly 1, 200%, while reducing welfare of free workers by 0.7% and eliminating slaveholder profit. Aggregate GDP rises by 9.1%, with a contraction in agricultural productivity counteracted by an expansion in manufacturing and services driven by an exodus of formerly enslaved workers out of agriculture and into the U.S. North. |
| JEL: | J47 N51 O17 R1 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34356 |
| By: | Yann Bramoullé (Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France and CEPR); Charles Figuieres (Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France); Mathis Preti (Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France) |
| Abstract: | Between 1954 and 1998, the tobacco industry funded more than 1, 900 research projects at a total cost of $355 million, on topics such as the roles of heredity and nutrition in cancer. Even though legitimate, this research was intended to divert attention from the harmful effects of tobacco. We provide the first formal analysis of such diversion research. We show that special interests may have strong incentives to affect the scientific agenda, even when the research itself is unbiased. This form of scientific lobbying yields large welfare losses and raises concerns about the private funding of research. |
| Keywords: | Scientific uncertainty, scientific lobbying, private research funding |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2518 |
| By: | Schmucker, Alexandra (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Vom Berge, Philipp (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "This data report describes the Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies (SIAB) 1975 - 2023." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Stichprobe der Integrierten Arbeitsmarktbiografien ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Datenaufbereitung ; Datendokumentation ; Datengewinnung ; Datenqualität ; Datenzugang ; IAB-Beschäftigtenhistorik ; IAB-Leistungsempfängerhistorik ; Stichprobenverfahren ; 10.5164/IAB.SIAB7523.de.en.v2 ; 1975-2023 |
| Date: | 2025–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfda:2025v202(de) |
| By: | Ignacio Barranquero (CONICET–Universidad de Buenos Aires. IIEP‑CEHEAL. UNSAM.); Matías Kulfas (Universidad Nacional de San Martín (UNSAM). Escuela de Economía y Negocios. San Martín, Argentina.); Marcelo Rougier (Universidad de Buenos Aires. FCE. IIEP‑CEHEAL. Buenos Aires, Argentina.); Andrés Salles (Universidad de Buenos Aires. FCE. IIEP. CONICET–UBA. Buenos Aires, Argentina.) |
| Abstract: | Vaivenes de la política energética argentina y su relación con la restricción externa; análisis histórico, evidencia empírica y estimaciones de elasticidades de importación. |
| Keywords: | Restricción externa; Política energética; Hidrocarburos; Argentina |
| JEL: | O25 F63 O14 B15 C1 E02 H41 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ake:iiepdt:2025-105 |
| By: | Fremerey, Melinda; Gerards Iglesias, Simon |
| Abstract: | Auch 35 Jahre nach der deutschen Einheit wird in Politik und Öffentlichkeit weiterhin intensiv darüber diskutiert, welche Unterschiede zwischen Ost und West bestehen und wie weit das Land tatsächlich zusammengewachsen ist. Besonders deutlich treten diese Differenzen im politischen Wahlverhalten zutage: Auch wenn sich das Ost-West-Gefälle beim Stimmenanteil für die rechtsextreme Partei AfD bei den letzten Bundestagswahlen verringert hat, zeigen sich nach wie vor markante Unterschiede zwischen ost- und westdeutschen Regionen im Wahlverhalten. Diese Trennlinie verläuft oft sogar mitten durch Nachbargemeinden. Vor diesem Hintergrund widmet sich dieses Paper den sogenannten Grenzregionen. Darunter verstehen wir Gemeinden, die direkt an der früheren innerdeutschen Grenze liegen. Diese Grenzräume eignen sich besonders gut, um die Entwicklung seit der Wiedervereinigung zu untersuchen, weil sie durch ihre Lage unmittelbar von der historischen Teilung geprägt waren und geographisch heute ähnlich verortet sind. Ziel dieser Studie ist, ihre wirtschaftliche, soziale und politische Entwicklung im Vergleich zu anderen Regionen systematisch zu analysieren. Dadurch lässt sich erkennen, welche Unterschiede fortbestehen, wo Angleichungsprozesse erfolgreich verlaufen sind und in welchen Bereichen weiterhin Divergenzen sichtbar bleiben. |
| Abstract: | 35 years after German reunification, there is still intense debate in politics and public discourse about the differences between East and West and the extent to which the country has actually grown together. These differences are particularly evident in political behavior: elections reveal striking differences between eastern and western German regions-for example, in support for the far-right party Alternative for Germany, or AfD, whose approval ratings are significantly higher east of the former inner-German border. This historical dividing line is thus still visible today and often even runs right through neighboring communities. Against this backdrop, this paper focuses on the so-called border regions. By this we mean communities that lie directly on the former inner-German border. These border areas are particularly well suited for examining developments since reunification because their location meant they were directly affected by the historical division. The aim is to systematically analyze their economic, social, and political development in comparison with other regions. This will reveal which differences remain, where convergence processes have been successful, and in which areas divergences remain visible. |
| JEL: | R12 R23 R58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:328259 |
| By: | Timothée Boisseau (Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres, CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres); Alexandre Azoulay (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Pascal Le Masson (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Benoît Weil (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The french low-tech movement is looking for a way to scale up through a profusion of initiatives. The importance of technical artefacts suggests that the diffusion of low-tech objects should be studied as a way of scaling up the movement. The literature on the diffusion of innovations points to certain incompatibilities between low-tech and the usual frameworks, opening the door to original forms of diffusion. The literature on low-tech and similar innovations outlines various forms of scaling up, in particular by questioning the interactions between the object and its environment during its diffusion. Through a qualitative case study of the diffusion of a solar oven, we will show that diffusion by replication of objects is relatively low in the cases studied. A second form of scaling up, a priori appropriate to the values of low-tech, is also studied: diffusion by replication of small production capacities with design margins. This second form also suffers from limitations. We will be highlighting a third form of scaling up, which encourages the expansion of the exploration of the unknowns associated with the object and its environment. |
| Abstract: | Le mouvement low-tech cherche la forme de son passage à l'échelle à travers un foisonnement d'initiatives. L'importance des artefacts techniques suggère d'étudier la diffusion des objets low-tech comme une forme de passage à l'échelle du mouvement. La littérature sur la diffusion de l'innovation laisse entrevoir certaines incompatibilités de la low-tech avec les cadres habituels, ouvrant la porte à des formes de diffusion originales. La littérature low-tech et sur les innovations similaires dessine des formes variées de passage à l'échelle, en particulier en questionnant les interactions entre l'objet et son milieu lors de sa diffusion. A travers une étude de cas qualitative portant sur la diffusion d'un four solaire, nous montrerons que la diffusion par réplication d'objets est relativement faible dans les cas observés. Une seconde forme de passage à l'échelle a priori appropriée aux valeurs de la low-tech est aussi étudiée : la diffusion par réplication de petites capacités de production avec des marges de conception. Cette seconde forme souffre aussi de limites. Nous mettrons en lumière une troisième forme de passage à l'échelle, qui pousse à l'expansion de l'exploration des inconnus associé à l'objet et son milieu. |
| Keywords: | étude de cas, low-tech, diffusion de l'innovation, passage à l'échelle |
| Date: | 2025–10–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05280467 |
| By: | Nicola Fontana (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin); Marco Manacorda (School of Economics and Finance, Queen Mary University of London); Gianluca Russo (CUNEF University); Marco Tabellini (Business, Government, and International Economy unit, Harvard Business School) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the long-run effects of emigration on economic development. We consider the case of historical mass migration from Italy between 1880 and 1920, when more than 10 million people left the country. We exploit variation in access to information about opportunities abroad to derive an instrument for outmigration at the municipality level. We find that areas with higher historical emigration are poorer, less educated, and less densely populated at the turn of the 21st century. These effects emerged early and persisted, as emigration led to sustained depopulation that, combined with declining fertility and lower human capital investment, constrained the structural transformation from agriculture to manufacturing and services. |
| Keywords: | Emigration; long-run economic development |
| JEL: | F22 N33 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep1125 |
| By: | Tsoukli, Xanthi |
| Abstract: | Little is known about the effects of political conflicts on the status of women in society. Polarizing attitudes might have a differential effect on women's lives after a conflict. To consider this, the case of Greece after the Second World War is exploited, when the country became highly polarized between left and right ideologies, resulting in a threeyear full-scale civil war. A referendum regarding the reinstatement of the monarchy is used as an indicator of political beliefs, and, in a difference-in-differences setting, it is demonstrated that 10% greater political opposition to the monarchy implied that female labour force participation was 1.4% higher after the war. A plausible mechanism is through conservative areas becoming more conservative and liberal areas becoming more liberal, and data on the construction of new churches, a conservative institution, are consistent with this hypothesis. Finally, it is found that these effects were persistent, as reflected by female labour force participation until 1981, and attitudes revealed in the European Value Survey of 1999. |
| Keywords: | political conflict, female labour force participation, gender norms, Greece |
| JEL: | J21 J71 N34 N44 R23 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bamber:328242 |
| By: | Rodrigue Dossou-Cadja (Sapienza University of Rome, Paris School of Economics, Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales) |
| Abstract: | The January 11, 1994, CFA franc devaluation stands as the most significant macroeconomic reform in nearly a century of the Franc Zone system, particularly following the political independences of former African French colonies in the 1960s. Whilst conventional narratives attribute it to fiscal excesses in major economies like Côte d’Ivoire and Cameroon, newly uncovered archival data from the Banque de France, the Bank of England, the Bundesbank (the latter two sourced from Eichengreen and Naef, 2022), and the IMF challenge this view. Instead, I reinstate the devaluation within a much broader common African-European experience: the 1992–93 European Monetary System (EMS) crisis. Evidence unveils its critical role in shoring up the French franc’s credibility amidst the crisis and suggests a new ‘democratic Franc Zone’s Transition Committee’ within the Banque de France/Eurosystem for future governance. |
| Keywords: | CFA franc devaluation, Franc Zone, European Monetary System, Currency crisis, Political Independences, Narrative approach |
| JEL: | F N |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inf:wpaper:2025.18 |
| By: | Salerno, Nicolas; Vidal, Olivier; Andrieu, Baptiste |
| Abstract: | Structural-Demographic Theory (SDT) offers a systemic and long-term perspective that moves beyond circumstantial interpretations of political events. Rather than focusing on discrete episodes such as protests, reforms, or crises, it seeks to identify the underlying dynamics that shape how societies evolve over time. This approach enables a deeper understanding of political instability and how certain historical configurations repeatedly produce tensions between populations and institutions. This paper introduces a Political Stress Index (Ψ) designed as a retrospective and prospective tool. This index aim to identify periods during which structural stress accumulates and aligns across three dimensions: elite overproduction and factionalism, fiscal fragility of the state, and the potential of the population to mobilize. When these variables rise together, the likelihood of significant institutional change increases. Applying this framework to post-war France, we argue that recent political unrest should be interpreted not as a series of isolated disruptions, but as the cumulative effect of deep structural transformations. Our findings suggest that contemporary France faces increasing demographic changes and institutional misadaptation. By aligning with long-term trends in electoral sociology, this analysis offers a reinterpretation of recent events as part of a broader trajectory of strain. It invites renewed attention to the systemic roots of instability and emphasizes the importance of institutional adaptation in periods of rising structural stress. |
| Date: | 2025–10–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:w7cxk_v1 |
| By: | Moritz Lubczyk; Maria Waldinger |
| Abstract: | What are the long-run effects of sustained exposure to air pollution? A unique natural experiment allows us to examine this question. In 1982, a sudden cut in Soviet oil forced Socialist East Germany to switch to highly polluting lignite coal. While the shock sharply increased air pollution near mining regions, authoritarian restrictions on mobility, housing, and jobs prevented sorting responses. We document persistent labor market impacts over three decades. Exposed individuals work less, earn lower wages, and retire earlier. Health is a key mechanism: infant mortality rises by 9\% and the long-run incidence of asthma and cardiopathy increases significantly. |
| Keywords: | air pollution, labour supply |
| JEL: | I15 J24 J60 N54 Q53 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12197 |
| By: | Lucien Rigaux |
| Date: | 2025–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/395366 |