|
on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | Joshua L. Rosenbloom |
| Abstract: | This chapter explores the distinctive trajectory of American industrialization up to 1870, emphasizing how the United States adapted and transformed British technologies to suit its unique economic and resource conditions. Rather than a straightforward transfer of innovations, the chapter argues that American industrial development was shaped by path-dependent processes and historical contingencies—such as the Embargo Act of 1807 and government sponsorship of firearms production—that enabled the emergence of a domestic innovation ecosystem. The chapter offers fresh insights into how high-pressure steam engines, vertically integrated textile mills, and precision manufacturing techniques evolved in response to labor scarcity, capital constraints, and abundant natural resources. A particularly novel contribution is the detailed analysis of how American manufacturers substituted mechanization and organizational innovation for skilled labor, leading to the development of technologies that were not only distinct from their British counterparts but also foundational for the Second Industrial Revolution. The chapter also highlights the democratization of invention, showing how economic incentives and institutional support fostered widespread innovation among ordinary citizens. By integrating technological, economic, and institutional perspectives, this chapter provides a compelling explanation for why the United States developed a robust manufacturing sector despite seemingly unfavorable initial conditions. |
| JEL: | N61 N71 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34225 |
| By: | Potter, Scarlett |
| Abstract: | This dissertation examines how the representation of luxury in Vogue magazine evolved over twentieth-century America and how its editorial discourse intersected with broader patterns of income inequality. Using a dataset of 1418 issues (1910-2000) of U.S. Vogue, it tracks the frequency of luxury-related terms and correlates them with historical U.S. income share data for the top 1%. This study combines this quantitative approach with close readings of selected issues to examine how Vogue rhetorically and visually constructed the idea of luxury across different historical and socio-economic contexts. The findings reveal a strong alignment between elite income shares and visible luxury discourse from 1910-1970, particularly during the 1920s, when Vogue portrayed luxury as aspirational and overt. After 1970, however, this relationship was disrupted: despite rising elite income, the frequency of luxury terms plateaued or declined. This relationship is further analysed through the frequency of ready-to-wear (RTW) terminology, revealing a dramatic increase in the 1960s, signalling a shift toward more accessible and commodified styles. This transition reflects broader structural changes in the fashion industry and consumer culture, including the rise of mass production, the expansion of department stores, increased access to credit and crucially the democratisation of fashion. |
| JEL: | D10 D31 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129442 |
| By: | Krenz, Astrid; Strulik, Holger |
| Abstract: | At any given age, adult men die at a higher rate than women. In many developed countries, increasing excess mortality of men has been demonstrated for cohorts born in the late nineteenth century and thereafter. The decline in infectious diseases is believed to have contributed to the increase in male excess mortality. Here, we focus on India during 1990–2019, a period in which the Indian states experienced, to varying degrees, the epidemiological transition. We show that male excess mortality evolves positively over the observation period, is greater in later-born cohorts, and is strongly associated with the decline in infectious disease mortality. We propose a simple theory that explains these facts by a greater influence of infections on the biological aging of women compared to men. We calibrate the model with Indian data and show that it can replicate the feature of rising male excess mortality over time and birth year of cohorts. |
| Keywords: | epidemiological transition; male excess mortality; biological aging; India |
| JEL: | J11 J16 N35 |
| Date: | 2025–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129467 |
| By: | Wei Liang; Heng-fu Zou |
| Abstract: | We develop a new theory of asset pricing based on the concept of liberal ideas capital-a stock of intangible, ideational resources rooted in human dignity, individual liberty, free speech, constitutional democracy, property rights, and the rule of law. Building upon the philosophical foundations of John Locke, Thomas Jefferson, Alexis de Tocqueville, Lord Acton, Lud- wig von Mises, Friedrich Hayek, and Milton Friedman, and integrating recent contributions by McCloskey, Phelps, and Heng-Fu Zou, we construct a dynamic general equilibrium model in which liberal ideas capital plays a central role in driving productivity, institutional stability, and investor confidence. In this framework, countries that invest in and accu mulate liberal ideas capital experience lower transaction costs, more secure property rights, higher innovation, and thus, superior asset returns and lower volatility over time. Empirically, we assemble cross-country data on liberalism-related indices-freedom of speech, property rights, rule of law, press freedom, and democratic governance-and demonstrate that nations with higher levels of liberal ideas capital exhibit systematically higher long-term equity returns and stronger economic performance. In contrast, countries dominated by authoritarian ideas capital exhibit per sistent institutional fragility, lower risk-adjusted returns, and weaker in vestor protection. Our findings challenge conventional asset pricing mod els by revealing the deep ideational foundations of market behavior. We argue that liberal ideas form the cognitive and institutional prerequisite for asset pricing itself, making price discovery and risk assessment possible. This elevates the intergenerational transmission of these norms-a process of "soulcraft" - to the most critical form of capital investment for ensuring long-run financial stability and prosperity. The paper thus offers a unified theory of political economy, ideology, and fnance, concluding that a society's most valuable asset is the shared belief in liberty. |
| Date: | 2025–08–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:779 |
| By: | Jay Euijung Lee |
| Abstract: | The traditional expectation that married women should be homemakers restricts them from pursuing their comparative advantage in the labor market. I quantify the aggregate economic consequences of these marriage-specific gender norms, accounting for selection into marriage and labor force participation. In 1940, married women faced a "norms wedge" equivalent to a 44% tax on market wages compared to similar single women, which fell to 14% by 2010. Had these norms persisted at 1940 levels, market output today would be 8.7% lower and combined market and home output 5.3% lower. Amplification effects through endogenous human capital investment and marriage decisions, which reshape the productivity distribution of both women and men, are critical to generating these large results. |
| Keywords: | marriage, gender norms, misallocation, female labor force participation |
| Date: | 2025–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2119 |
| By: | Solanko, Laura |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an overview of the major changes in Russia's macroeconomic policies since the early 1990s. For decades, the quest for economic stability and security have been leading principles of Russian macroeconomic policies. To understand the genesis of these macroeconomic policy choices the paper first provides a chronology of macroeconomic policies from the early 1990's to the aftermath of the global pandemic thirty years later. The second part describes how since the fullscale invasion on Ukraine, Western economic sanctions and the emerging war economy have fundamentally changed Russia's policy choices in fiscal and monetary policies as well as in Russia's trade relations. |
| Keywords: | Russia, fiscal policy, monetary policy |
| JEL: | O10 P20 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:325489 |
| By: | Tate, Anya |
| Abstract: | The late 19th-century reforms to the British patenting system reduced the cost of obtaining a patent from over £100 in 1851 to just £4 by 1883. While increasing accessibility, this cost reduction led to an increase of low-quality patents often replicating previous inventions, raising concerns about the system's effectiveness. As a result, the 1902 policy proposed novelty examination for the first time, increasing the cost by 25%. This paper examines whether the implementation of this policy in 1905 had a differential effect on patenting activity across British regions. Despite the significance of this policy, it has received extremely limited academic attention. This research aims to fill this gap and add to the literature on the regional impacts of patent system reforms in this period. This study employs panel regressions using data on every geocoded patent sealed between 1895-1915 in the PatentCity database with regional employment in 28 industries as controls. Results indicate no change in the regional distribution of patenting activity as a result of the novelty examination. These findings are consistent with those of Nicholas (2011) for the 1883 policy and have important implications for the geography of inventive activity and the distributional impacts of invention policies. |
| JEL: | O30 R10 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129440 |
| By: | Costa-Font, Joan; Rodriguez-Monguio, Rosa |
| Abstract: | This editorial introduces the special issue dedicated to commemorating the life and scholarly achievements of Professor Joan Rovira Forns, a distinguished health economist whose pioneering work continues to influence global health policy and research. We discuss why Professor Rovira was a prominent figure in the field and summarise some of his key contributions. Next, we highlight the collection of papers featured in this issue, explaining how they connect to his work and contribute to his lasting legacy by celebrating his interdisciplinary approach and dedication to societal impact. |
| Keywords: | health economics; HTA; pricing; equity; interdisciplinary social science |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2025–09–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128984 |
| By: | Forslund, Eva (Mistra Center for Sustainable Markets (Misum)); Meriläinen, Jaako (Mistra Center for Sustainable Markets (Misum)); Zipfel, Celine (Mistra Center for Sustainable Markets (Misum)) |
| Abstract: | We provide new evidence on how a gender-biased, labor-saving technology—the milking machine—advanced one important dimension of gender equality: women’s political representation. Our focus is mid-20th-century Finland, where mechanized milking reduced the time burden of a task traditionally performed by women and facilitated modernization of rural parts of the country. Using historical data, we estimate panel and instrumental-variable models that exploit temporal variation in the spread of milking machines and geographic variation in pre-determined comparative advantage in cattle farming. We find that municipalities with greater adoption of milking machines experienced significantly larger increases in the share of local council seats held by women between 1950 and 1972. These effects operated through time savings, rural economic development, and an increase in women’s employment off the farm, which together helped ease key constraints to women's political representation. |
| Keywords: | agriculture; gender; political representation; technological change; women in politics |
| JEL: | D63 |
| Date: | 2025–09–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:hamisu:2025_002 |
| By: | Schmidtlein, Lisa (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Schmucker, Alexandra (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Vom Berge, Philipp (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "This data report describes the “Regional File” of the Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies (SIAB-R) 1975 – 2023. This dataset represents the factual anonymous version of the Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies (SIAB) and may be transmitted to scientific research institutions after concluding a use agreement with the IAB." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | 10.5164/IAB.SIAB-R7523.de.en.v1 |
| Date: | 2025–07–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfda:202506(en) |
| By: | Emi Nakamura; Venance Riblier; Jón Steinsson |
| Abstract: | The Federal Reserve partially "looked through" the post-Covid rise in inflation and ultimately managed to bring about an "immaculate disinflation." The Fed's policy deviated strongly from the Taylor rule during this period. More generally, central banks with strong inflation-fighting credentials looked through post-Covid inflationary shocks yet experienced less inflation than more hawkish but less credible central banks. In light of this episode, we assess the degree to which the Taylor rule is descriptive, and the degree to which it should be viewed as prescriptive. While the Taylor rule (generally) fits well during the Greenspan period, it (generally) fits poorly in the early 1980s and after the early 2000s. Academic work has emphasized the role of the Taylor rule in preventing self-fulfilling fluctuations (guaranteeing determinacy). These concerns can be addressed with a shock-contingent commitment and are fragile to deviations from fully rational expectations. We discuss three reasons why optimal policy may not always imply a one-for-one response of interest rates to inflation (forward guidance, correlated shocks, and "long and variable lags"). The main challenge arising from such policies is not indeterminacy but erosion of inflation-fighting credibility and potential deanchoring of long-run inflation expectations. Only central banks with strongly anchored inflation expectations and large amounts of inflation-fighting credibility are likely to be able to look through inflationary shocks. |
| JEL: | E5 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34200 |
| By: | Rapetti, Martin |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the elusive notion of equilibrium in Keynes’s General Theory and its implications for subsequent interpretations of his work. Through a formal setup of the core relationships in the first eighteen chapters of the book, I show that Keynes’s model allows for multiple equilibria that critically depend on fixed nominal wages, expectations and confidence. While this structure resembles the IS-LM model, it diverges in its treatment of price flexibility, speculative motives in money demand, and the central role of expectations and confidence. The paper evaluates four possible interpretations of the General Theory, each arising from a different understanding of the notion of equilibrium in Keynes: (1) the neoclassical synthesis view, which relies on nominal wage rigidity; (2) a Tobinian view, in which macroeconomic equilibrium is unique but potentially unstable; (3) a social-norms view, where real rigidities à la Akerlof prevent wage adjustments and therefore multiple equilibria are possible; and (4) a Minskian interpretation that denies the existence of equilibrium altogether. The first interpretation is incompatible with the view expressed by Keynes in the General Theory. The other three, while clearly distinct from each other, are all compatible with Keynes’s argument—although they appear with varying degrees of clarity in the book. |
| Keywords: | Keynes, equilibrium, wage rigidity, expectations, General Theory |
| JEL: | B22 E12 E24 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125912 |
| By: | Christian Ochsner; Lukas Schmid |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of the largest adverse health shock in modern medicine—the 1918 influenza pandemic—on subsequent shifts in health-related attitudes and behavior and future-oriented policies. Our analysis builds upon self-digitized, individuallevel death-register excerpts, vaccination records, and popular vote counts. We find that greater exposure to influenza leads to a decline in societal support for public health measures at the aggregate level, mainly triggered by deceased peers. However, individual-level data reveal increased vaccination rates in families who experienced influenza-related deaths. These differences did not exist before the pandemic. Our findings link to a U-shaped relationship between suffering from the pandemic and support for effective health policies. Places with predominantly indirectly-affected families drive the aggregate backlash. This challenges the idea that past health shocks improve life expectancy through societal learning. |
| Keywords: | Health behavior, Health attitudes, 1918 influenza pandemic, Mistrust |
| JEL: | I12 I18 H51 D72 N34 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp796 |
| By: | Jean-Paul L'Huillier; Kirill Shakhnov; Laure Simon |
| Abstract: | The bulk of the news shocks literature focuses on shocks materializing after four or five quarters, with limited evidence on news about longer-run events. We build a new dataset of discovery and production start dates for a wide range of giant commodity discoveries worldwide from 1960 to 2012. Standard open economy models match the empirical responses of short-run news but fail in the case of long-run news. Incorporating financial frictions in the form of collateral constraints is crucial for capturing the dynamics implied by long-run news. We also provide direct evidence on the role of these frictions. |
| Keywords: | Business fluctuations and cycles; International topics |
| JEL: | E23 F3 F4 Q33 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:25-24 |
| By: | Davis, John B. (Department of Economics Marquette University); (Department of Economics Marquette University) |
| Abstract: | Disadvantaged social groups in the US suffered disproportionately in the covid pandemic and Great Recession, worsening high levels of inequality associated with their post-1980 declining intergenerational income mobility. For black Americans this reflects the long history of racial discrimination beginning with slavery. Reparations paid to descendants of enslaved individuals to eliminate the black-white wealth gap is a step toward addressing this history. A further needed step is to build predominantly black communities human and social capital through public investments in community health care centers (CHCs) and historically black colleges and universities (HBCUs). There is considerable evidence that investments in early childhood education positively affect later school performance, income and earnings, higher education, crime, and other well-being outcomes. CHCs and HBCUs promote early childhood education. This paper argues compensation is due to both individuals and their communities, and reparations payments should be accompanied by public investments in those communities. |
| Keywords: | reparations, racial inequality, human capital, social capital, early childhood education, CHCs, HBCUs, restitutive justice, restorative justice |
| JEL: | D31 D63 I31 J15 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mrq:wpaper:2025-05 |
| By: | Kohnert, Dirk |
| Abstract: | Economic governance is measured by economic freedom, while political governance is measured by the electoral competitiveness index. How can political instability and poor governance in SSA be coped with? This is often seen as the overarching problem that exacerbates many others. Systemic corruption at all levels deprives the state of much-needed revenue, increases the cost of doing business and undermines public trust in institutions. In addition, weak institutions, such as an inefficient judiciary, inadequate public administration and barely existing public services, hinder development. Poor governance, reflected in a lack of rule of law, property rights, a regulatory burden, political violence and ineffective government, impedes growth in per capita revenue. In African politics, neo-patrimonialism appears to be the default setting, described as the 'moral economy of corruption' or the 'economics of affection’. Even with the support of the donor community, governments may develop ambitious plans to improve governance and strengthen institutions, yet fail to improve the standard of living of their citizens. Since the Second World War, Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa in particular, has had the poorest economic performance of any region in the world. By the end of the 20th century, incomes per capita had barely improved since independence, and in some cases had worsened considerably. The main problem was the failure to improve the efficiency of resource use. In contrast to many other developing countries, total factor productivity was static or negative for much of the time. With few exceptions, African countries have lacked a sound social and political foundation conducive to growth and development, and this foundation has tended to deteriorate over time. Good governance practices are supported by institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Good governance practices are also supported by such institutions. In order to receive development aid, states must apply and accept the principles of good governance. If they neglect to do so, African states risk not receiving financial aid. Accountability is a positive aspect of good governance. However, African states have developed a 'new culture', especially after decolonisation. There is a significant difference in perspective between Africans and Westerners regarding governance. The clientelist forms of politics that define postcolonial states do not stem from a class project, but are a contemporary manifestation of a dynamic national, African and ethnic culture. |
| Keywords: | gouvernance économique; gouvernance politique; corruption; État de droit; responsabilité; Afrique subsaharienne; Afrique du Sud; Nigeria; Côte d'Ivoire; |
| JEL: | D72 D73 D74 N17 N37 N47 O17 O19 O35 O40 O55 P10 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–09–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126165 |
| By: | Wilson, Kate |
| Abstract: | The cause of England’s agricultural transformation and subsequent escape from Malthusian constraints remains a subject of significant debate in economic and agricultural historiography. This study challenges conventional narratives by examining the Corbet estates in old-enclosed Shropshire between 1740 and 1840 to assess whether shifts associated with ‘agricultural revolution’, such as farm engrossment and rising rents, emerged in the absence of parliamentary enclosure. By considering an area where traditional views on parliamentary enclosure are less applicable, this research provides a nuanced understanding of agricultural shifts in a regional context. Using the Corbet family rentals and estate surveys, this study tracks changes in land distribution, tenure security, and rents over the period. This is then combined with a thorough analysis of parish records and contemporary accounts to consider the motivations behind the observed shifts. Such a multifaceted approach aims to determine whether these shifts can be attributed to productivity growth, as traditional narratives suggest, or whether deliberate estate management decisions played a more significant role. The results indicate that an agricultural transformation was occurring on the Corbet estates, but that there is little evidence to suggest a link to productivity growth. Therefore, it is likely that the estate management philosophy of the Corbet family, particularly following their descent into debt after 1783, was a central driver of the observed shifts. Ultimately, this research provides insight into how rural transformation operated across diverse regional contexts in the Early Modern period, challenging traditional narratives that are centred around enclosure. |
| JEL: | Q10 Q15 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129441 |
| By: | Michael Alexeev; William Pyle; Jiaan Wang |
| Abstract: | Although it has been speculated that the pain and dislocation of the early 1990s left Russians with an abiding distaste for the values that animated the transition from communism, the quantitative evidence for a lasting effect is thin. Drawing on a large, regionally representative survey from 2010, we show that in regions where the embrace of liberal values declined most in the early 1990s, support for democratic values remained weakest a generation later. Instrumenting for the change in values in the early 1990s with variables that capture Soviet-era economic distortions, we connect the vulnerability of a region to the market liberalization shock of 1992 to its diminished support for liberal political values in both shorter and longer runs, particularly for the older cohorts who would have experienced the early 1990s as adults. The endurance of the effect of the early 1990s economic shock stands in contrast to research from other contexts that the attitudinal effects of economic shocks experienced after early adulthood are short-lived. We speculate that a possible explanation for why the effect of the early 1990s endures in Russia was the amplification of the economic shock by an “identity shock” related to Russia’s post-imperial loss of status. In support of this hypothesis, we use multiple waves of the Integrated Values Survey (IVS) to show that in Russia, the demand for democratic values declined in the first half of the 1990s relative to other former communist countries, opening a values gap that persisted through at least 2017. Lastly, we draw on a recent survey experiment to show that respondents primed to consider the economic collapse of the early 1990s, and to a lesser extent the dissolution of the Soviet Union, are less likely to embrace democratic values than those in a control group. |
| Keywords: | market transition, macroeconomic shock, democratic values, Russia |
| JEL: | D72 D81 E32 P00 P20 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12095 |
| By: | Sona Badalyan |
| Abstract: | This paper exploits a unique norm-shifting setting—a German pension reform that equalized retirement ages across genders—to examine how old-age employment propagates through workplace networks. The reform raised women’s earliest claiming age from 60 to 63 for cohorts born in 1952 onward. Using the universe of workgroups from social security records, I compare women whose peers were just above or below the reform cutoff. I find that women are more likely to remain employed at older ages when their peers do, with stronger effects in the regions of former West Germany, with its traditional gender norms. Gender-neutral pension reforms thus amplify their impact through peer influence, fostering regional convergence in late-career employment patterns. |
| Keywords: | aging, gender, peer effects, old age employment, social norms |
| JEL: | D85 H55 J14 J16 J22 J26 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp800 |
| By: | Heine, Klaus; Mause, Karsten; Schnellenbach, Jan |
| Abstract: | Zwischen 2018 und 2020 verstarben drei prägende Vertreter der Marburger Schule der Ordnungsökonomik$dUlrich Fehl, Hans-Günter Krüsselberg und Jochen Röpke. Zwar verfolgten die drei unterschiedliche Forschungsschwerpunkte, jedoch hatten sie auch eine Reihe von Gemeinsamkeiten. Insbesondere teilten sie ein prozedurales Verständnis des Marktes. Sie interessierten sich für Wettbewerb und Unternehmertum. Und sie bemühten sich um eine wirtschaftspolitische Schwerpunktsetzung, die sowohl ordnungspolitisch orientiert als auch an praktisch relevanten Problemen orientiert war. In diesem Beitrag werden die drei Forscher, die viele Generationen von Studierenden geprägt haben, gemeinsam gewürdigt. |
| Abstract: | Between 2018 and 2020, three influential representatives of the Marburg School of Ordoliberalism passed away$dUlrich Fehl, Hans-Günter Krüsselberg, and Jochen Röpke. While the three pursued different research focuses, they shared several commonalities. In particular, they embraced a procedural understanding of the market and were interested in competition and entrepreneurship. They sought to prioritize economic policy that was both grounded in regulatory principles and oriented toward contemporary problems of economic policy. This article honors the three researchers who shaped many generations of students by having a retrospective look at their achievements. |
| Keywords: | Marburger Schule, Kapitaltheorie, Innovation, Wettbewerb, Ordnungspolitik, Marburg Economics, Capital Theory, Innovation, Entrepreneurship, ConstitutionalEconomics |
| JEL: | B25 B31 D02 O15 O30 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:aluord:325824 |
| By: | Tomoya MORI |
| Abstract: | The past half-century in Japan has been characterized by the comprehensive development of high-speed railways, expressways, air routes, and the widespread adoption of the internet and smartphones, resulting in a substantial decline in transportation and communication costs. Given that the agglomeration of people and firms in cities is fundamentally driven by the costs associated with mobility and communication, changes in the costs of moving people, goods, and information have exerted a significant influence on the spatial distribution of the population. This paper analyzes, through the framework of economic agglomeration theory, how the enhancement of transport and communication infrastructure—effectively dismantling distance barriers—has transformed inter- and intra-urban population distribution. Particular attention is paid to the underlying mechanisms driving these shifts, with a focus on cities as the focus of population agglomeration. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rpdpjp:25013 |
| By: | António Afonso; Joshua Jablonowski |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates fiscal sustainability and the prevailing fiscal regime in the Federal Republic of Germany. Using annual data from 1950 to 2023, the long-term relationship between the primary balance and government debt is estimated using a single-equation error correction model (SECM). The results from this long-term analysis do not support the hypothesis of fiscal sustainability, and the SECM proves inconclusive in identifying a dominant fiscal regime, showing a statistically insignificant long-run coefficient and bidirectional Granger causality. Moreover, with the local projections method on quarterly data from 2002 to 2023, this impulse response analysis reveals a clear Money-Dominant (MD) regime. A discretionary positive shock to the primary balance leads to a significant a decrease in real government debt, a result consistent with the MD regime. These findings suggest that while Germany’s long-run fiscal framework is ambiguous, its policy dynamics in the 21st century have been characterised as sustainable fiscal practices. |
| Keywords: | fiscal sustainability, fiscal theory of the price level, socal projection |
| JEL: | C12 C22 E31 E62 E63 H63 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12111 |
| By: | Basihos, S. |
| Abstract: | Since the mid-1990s computing revolution, advanced economies have shown several striking regularities. After a decade-long boom, labor productivity growth has slowed, falling below its historical trend. Meanwhile, the labor share has declined sharply, and capital efficiency has decreased. This paper argues that these developments are not isolated but reflect a common structural change, with one possible driver being the faster obsolescence of capital in use due to the rapid advances of the computing revolution. Evidence from U.S. data suggests a significant rise in the capital obsolescence rate. To interpret these dynamics, I draw on an endogenous growth model of the U.S. economy. The model shows that while accelerated capital replacement initially boosts productivity, it ultimately leads to less effective use of resources under labor–capital complementarity, because labor skill creation lags behind the rapid introduction of new capital. As a result, the long-run outcomes under this regime are slower productivity growth, a lower labor share, and reduced capital efficiency. The quantitative model outputs are largely consistent with recent trends observed in advanced economies. |
| Keywords: | Obsolescence, Productivity Growth, Labor Share |
| JEL: | E20 O40 |
| Date: | 2025–05–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camjip:2522 |
| By: | Tomoya MORI |
| Abstract: | Under the accelerating population decline, Japan is shrinking at a pace equivalent to losing one prefecture each year. These changes are not uniform: while rural regions are in decline, population continues to concentrate in major metropolitan areas. However, even these large cities will eventually face the reality of having to share a shrinking pie. This series of articles explores what Japan’s regions might look like a hundred years from now and what actions we can take today through the lens of economic agglomeration theory. As the first step, this paper demonstrates how “the city, †as a site of population concentration, can serve as a sharp analytical lens through which we can envision the future of a regional economy. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rpdpjp:25012 |
| By: | Albertazzi, Ugo; Hooft, James ’t; Ter Steege, Lucas |
| Abstract: | In contrast to the conventional Fisherian view that inflation reduces real debt positions, we show that significant increases in inflation are strongly associated with financial crises. In the spirit of Jordà et al. (2020), countries with free and fixed ex-change rates can be compared to difference out the confounding reaction of monetary policy. Across a dataset of 18 advanced economies over 151 years, we show that the impact of inflation extends beyond its indirect effect via monetary policy. To further corroborate causality, we instrument inflation with oil supply shocks, finding that a 1pp rise in inflation doubles the probability of financial crisis from its sample average. We give evidence for the redistribution channel, where inflationary shocks directly cut real incomes, as a possible mechanism. In conjunction with recent literature on the dangers of rapidly tightening monetary policy, our results point to a difficult trade-off for central banks once inflation has risen. JEL Classification: E31, E44, E58, G01 |
| Keywords: | currency pegs, financial crises, inflation, monetary policy, oil supply |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253108 |
| By: | Oswaldo Mena Aguilar |
| Abstract: | This article examines how partisanship and other political determinants influenced disposable and market income inequality in Latin America from 1990 to 2022. Using three separate sources of data, it finds that left partisanship is consistently associated with lower levels of both market and disposable income inequality (pre distribution and redistribution respectively) within one- and four-years. It also finds an independent and consistent negative effect of social mobilization. The paper makes several contributions. First, it advances the concept of pre distribution in the study of partisanship and inequality, extending scarce existing empirical analysis into and beyond the Pink Tide and commodity boom era. Second, it codes partisanship at the presidential level, rather than the more common measure of cumulative legislative power, offering an indicator more aligned to Latin America’s presidential systems. Third, it triangulates results across SEDLAC, SWIID, and LIS data, reinforcing confidence in the robustness of the core findings. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:902 |